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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Miami, FL (MFL) (South Florida) Selection: |
| #514561 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:56 PM 29.May.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 745 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .AVIATION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER 15Z...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AROUND 18Z...SO HAVE S TO SE WINDS AT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AFTER 18Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)... THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND GENERALLY REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF EVENINGS...MOST OF THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SETUP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BEGIN TO IMPACT THE EAST COAST AND METRO LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LOCALIZED FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 40-55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODEL REFLECTIVITIES LINE UP WELL WITH THIS PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS BEFORE TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS BERYL CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION MAINTAINING A BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE LOWER-LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...DAYTIME HEATING AND SUFFICIENT SURFACED BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. WITH THE PRIMARY FLOW THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER REMAINING OUT OF THE SW...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA EACH DAY. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ONE DIFFERENCE TO NOTE FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE KEYS AND THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD THURSDAY. MODEL PWAT VALUES REFLECT THIS PATTERN AND GENERALLY INDICATE A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA OR FROM THE LAKE TO THE KEYS WITH THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THIS AREA (UP TO 2.2 INCHES). AS A RESULT...WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE THE RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THESE SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE BEST SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE. LONG TERM (FRIDAY-WEEKEND)... MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT INTO THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INDICATE THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SPREADING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST HPC 5 DAY PRECIP FORECAST INDICATES TOTALS REACHING THE 2-3 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE PENINSULA. AS TYPICALLY OBSERVED...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY BECOMES CONCENTRATED. MARINE... LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE EACH DAY. LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL TRANSLATE TO CHOPPIER CONDITIONS EACH DAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. FIRE WEATHER... PLENTY OF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL RED FLAG LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 73 89 74 88 / 20 40 20 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 76 90 76 88 / 20 40 20 50 MIAMI 75 90 75 89 / 20 40 20 50 NAPLES 74 89 74 89 / 10 20 20 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514448 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:35 PM 29.May.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 231 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)... THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND GENERALLY REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF EVENINGS...MOST OF THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SETUP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BEGIN TO IMPACT THE EAST COAST AND METRO LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LOCALIZED FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 40-55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODEL REFLECTIVITIES LINE UP WELL WITH THIS PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS BEFORE TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS BERYL CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION MAINTAINING A BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE LOWER-LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...DAYTIME HEATING AND SUFFICIENT SURFACED BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. WITH THE PRIMARY FLOW THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER REMAINING OUT OF THE SW...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA EACH DAY. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ONE DIFFERENCE TO NOTE FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE KEYS AND THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD THURSDAY. MODEL PWAT VALUES REFLECT THIS PATTERN AND GENERALLY INDICATE A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA OR FROM THE LAKE TO THE KEYS WITH THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THIS AREA (UP TO 2.2 INCHES). AS A RESULT...WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE THE RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THESE SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE BEST SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE. LONG TERM (FRIDAY-WEEKEND)... MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT INTO THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INDICATE THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SPREADING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST HPC 5 DAY PRECIP FORECAST INDICATES TOTALS REACHING THE 2-3 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE PENINSULA. AS TYPICALLY OBSERVED...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY BECOMES CONCENTRATED. && .MARINE... LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE EACH DAY. LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL TRANSLATE TO CHOPPIER CONDITIONS EACH DAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. && .FIRE WEATHER... PLENTY OF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL RED FLAG LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 73 89 74 88 / 20 40 20 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 76 90 76 88 / 20 40 20 50 MIAMI 75 90 75 89 / 20 40 20 50 NAPLES 74 89 74 89 / 10 20 20 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514432 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:35 PM 29.May.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 130 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .AVIATION...VCTS WAS KEPT AS PREVAILING AT ALL EASTERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. FOR KMIA AND KTMB...HAVE A TEMPO DUE TO A STRONG TSTMS MOVING THROUGH FROM 18-19Z. WILL AMEND IF NEEDED. EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILING AT ALL EASTERN TERMINALS...GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS AS TSTMS APPROACHES. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP KEEPING THE WEST COAST FAIRLY DRY TODAY. ALL ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO QUIET DOWN BY 30/01Z. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PROXIMITY OF THE LOW/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS S. FLORIDA TODAY. THIS WILL NOT ONLY ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD, BUT WILL ALSO ALLOW SEA/LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP. THIS, COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING, WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WL EXPECT MOST STORMS TO STEER MORE TOWARD THE LAKE REGION AND NORTHEAST METRO AREAS ONCE THEY DEVELOP. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY MAKE IT WELL INLAND BEFORE THE STORMS DEVELOP KEEPING NAPLES AND THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS FREE OF PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND SO STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE MENTION IN THE HWO...FOCUSING MAINLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF S. FLORIDA. BERYL, OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT, SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST AND AN ATLANTIC LOW LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY CHANGE THE LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERN TO MORE W-SW FOCUSING AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER EXTREME NORTH AND E PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA (LAKE OKEE/EAST COAST) ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL, IN TURN, PULL AMPLE MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN CARIB SEA NORTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA. DECIDED TO GO WITH HIGH SCT POPS ALL AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST, HOWEVER THE DEEP LAYER WIND FLOW SHOULD REMAIN WEST-SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL BREEZES SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCT AFTERNOON SHWRS/STORMS AT LEAST THROUGH A GOOD PORTIONS OF THE WEEKEND. A DRYING TREND MAY START BY SUNDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS REPLACED BY RIDGING OVER THE GOM, NOT ONLY CUTTING THE MOISTURE INFLUX, BUT ALSO RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION. MARINE...MOSTLY PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KTS AND SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. SFC WINDS COULD INCREASE BRIEFLY ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND BAYS AS THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO KEEP RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 74 90 73 88 / 20 40 20 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 76 89 74 88 / 20 40 20 50 MIAMI 75 90 73 89 / 20 40 20 50 NAPLES 74 88 73 88 / 10 20 20 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514380 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:26 AM 29.May.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 715 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .AVIATION... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MID-MORNING HOURS. BY LATE MORNING HOURS...THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW AT EAST COAST TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY AND AROUND 12 TO 14 KNOTS AROUND 18Z AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH MAINLY EAST COAST TERMINALS AFFECTED AND ASSIGNED VCTS AT 18Z. WITH OCCURRENCE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST COAST TERMINALS BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. && .AVIATION...BNB/BD .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PROXIMITY OF THE LOW/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS S. FLORIDA TODAY. THIS WILL NOT ONLY ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD, BUT WILL ALSO ALLOW SEA/LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP. THIS, COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING, WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WL EXPECT MOST STORMS TO STEER MORE TOWARD THE LAKE REGION AND NORTHEAST METRO AREAS ONCE THEY DEVELOP. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY MAKE IT WELL INLAND BEFORE THE STORMS DEVELOP KEEPING NAPLES AND THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS FREE OF PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND SO STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE MENTION IN THE HWO...FOCUSING MAINLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF S. FLORIDA. BERYL, OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT, SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST AND AN ATLANTIC LOW LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY CHANGE THE LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERN TO MORE W-SW FOCUSING AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER EXTREME NORTH AND E PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA (LAKE OKEE/EAST COAST) ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL, IN TURN, PULL AMPLE MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN CARIB SEA NORTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA. DECIDED TO GO WITH HIGH SCT POPS ALL AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST, HOWEVER THE DEEP LAYER WIND FLOW SHOULD REMAIN WEST-SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL BREEZES SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCT AFTERNOON SHWRS/STORMS AT LEAST THROUGH A GOOD PORTIONS OF THE WEEKEND. A DRYING TREND MAY START BY SUNDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS REPLACED BY RIDGING OVER THE GOM, NOT ONLY CUTTING THE MOISTURE INFLUX, BUT ALSO RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION. MARINE...MOSTLY PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KTS AND SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. SFC WINDS COULD INCREASE BRIEFLY ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND BAYS AS THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO KEEP RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 87 74 90 73 / 50 20 40 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 88 76 89 74 / 30 20 40 20 MIAMI 90 75 90 73 / 30 20 40 20 NAPLES 89 74 88 73 / 20 10 20 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514316 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:32 AM 29.May.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 324 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PROXIMITY OF THE LOW/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS S. FLORIDA TODAY. THIS WILL NOT ONLY ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD, BUT WILL ALSO ALLOW SEA/LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP. THIS, COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING, WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WL EXPECT MOST STORMS TO STEER MORE TOWARD THE LAKE REGION AND NORTHEAST METRO AREAS ONCE THEY DEVELOP. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY MAKE IT WELL INLAND BEFORE THE STORMS DEVELOP KEEPING NAPLES AND THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS FREE OF PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND SO STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE MENTION IN THE HWO...FOCUSING MAINLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF S. FLORIDA. BERYL, OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT, SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST AND AN ATLANTIC LOW LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY CHANGE THE LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERN TO MORE W-SW FOCUSING AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER EXTREME NORTH AND E PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA (LAKE OKEE/EAST COAST) ON WEDNESDAY. .THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL, IN TURN, PULL AMPLE MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN CARIB SEA NORTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA. DECIDED TO GO WITH HIGH SCT POPS ALL AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST, HOWEVER THE DEEP LAYER WIND FLOW SHOULD REMAIN WEST-SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL BREEZES SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCT AFTERNOON SHWRS/STORMS AT LEAST THROUGH A GOOD PORTIONS OF THE WEEKEND. A DRYING TREND MAY START BY SUNDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS REPLACED BY RIDGING OVER THE GOM, NOT ONLY CUTTING THE MOISTURE INFLUX, BUT ALSO RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION. && .MARINE...MOSTLY PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KTS AND SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. SFC WINDS COULD INCREASE BRIEFLY ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND BAYS AS THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO KEEP RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 87 74 90 73 / 50 20 40 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 88 76 89 74 / 30 20 40 20 MIAMI 90 75 90 73 / 30 20 40 20 NAPLES 89 74 88 73 / 20 10 20 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514309 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:59 AM 29.May.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 155 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .AVIATION... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS AT 18Z ALTHOUGH TERMINAL KPBI COULD BE IN THE MOST ACTIVE AREA FOR CONVECTION. TERMINAL KAPF SHOULD IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON. 60 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012/ UPDATE... A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION AND WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AS BERYL SPINS AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND FLORIDA STRAITS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE NIGHT...BUT LEFT OUT POPS FOR NOW AS ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND 12Z. WENT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...SO LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012/ AVIATION...00Z ISSUANCE...SHRA AND TSRA ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. VCTS/VCSH WARRANTED FOR A FEW EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH 01Z-02Z. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SHRA AND TSRA WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 14Z TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. IT APPEARS THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY STAY JUST WEST OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS, EXCEPT KPBI, WHERE VCTS WAS ASSIGNED BEGINNING AT 18Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH 02Z, AND THEN ONCE AGAIN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. AT KAPF, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME WSW AFTER 14Z. SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT- WEDN. NIGHT)... THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND GENERALLY REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. AS BERYL BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION MAINTAINING A BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE MODELS INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE LOWER- LEVELS INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...DAYTIME HEATING AND SUFFICIENT SURFACED BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY...DESPITE THE DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR. WITH THE PRIMARY FLOW THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER REMAINING OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE SHORT- TERM PERIOD...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTH AND EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA EACH DAY...OR ANYWHERE FROM INLAND MIAMI-DADE TO PALM BEACH COUNTIES. IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE TO BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO/COASTAL AREAS EACH DAY. LONG TERM (THURSDAY-WEEKEND) MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE LONG-RANGE PERIOD AND GENERALLY INDICATE THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF DEEPENING WITH THE UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND, IF VERIFIES. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING EACH DAY FAVORING THE EAST COAST AREAS AND INCREASE POPS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES OVER THE UPCOMING FEW DAYS. MARINE... LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE EACH DAY. LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL TRANSLATE TO CHOPPIER CONDITIONS EACH DAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. AVIATION... THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSH JUST WEST OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST EAST OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 21Z FOR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 03Z TONIGHT FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18Z BEFORE DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 02Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS KPBI...KFLL...AND KFXE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL CONTINUE THE VCTS FOR THESE TAF SITES THROUGH 01Z ALONG WITH A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z FOR REDUCTIONS OF VIS AND CEILING DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR KMIA...KOPF...AND KTMB THERE SHOULD ONLY BE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SO WILL CONTINUE THE VCSH FOR THESE TAF SITES THROUGH 03Z. AFTER 03Z...THE WEATHER SHOULD GO DRY SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER 3Z TONIGHT. KAPF TAF SITE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS. FIRE WEATHER... DEPRESSION BERYL WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BERYL IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DISPERSION INDEX WILL BE IN THE 40S TO 50S OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND BELOW 5 TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT THE DISPERSION WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAYS HOURS...AND VERY POOR OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE NIGHT HOURS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 88 74 90 75 / 50 50 40 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 89 76 91 77 / 20 40 40 20 MIAMI 89 76 90 76 / 20 20 40 20 NAPLES 87 73 86 74 / 20 20 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
