Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995
Tropical Storm #Barry Has Formed in the SW Bay of Campeche. Flhurricane.com
Tropical Storm #Barry Has Formed in the SW Bay of Campeche. Flhurricane.com
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Morehead City, NC (Morehead City, NC Area) Selection: |
| #514608 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:33 PM 29.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1020 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AND TRACK JUST ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM CAPE HATTERAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 PM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TD BERYL OVER NEAR THE SC/GA BORDER. BERYL WILL SLOWLY MOVE UP THE SE COAST OVERNIGHT. NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. DID ADJUST POPS SLIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MESOMODELS. RAIN AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SW LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TROPICAL AIRMASS...TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST INFLUENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BASED ON THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK BERYL WILL TRACK JUST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NC WEDNESDAY. IT MAY INTENSIFY TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM SOMEWHERE OFF OUR COAST...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING UP TO 6 INCHES WHERE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS PERSIST. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT IF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OR A BIT INLAND AS BERYL INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES ALONG THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR INUNDATION OF LOW LYING AREAS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. THERE WILL BE ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT EROSION OR OVERWASH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING BLOCKING OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND A STRONGLY NEGATIVE NAO WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A PERSISTENT EASTERN US UPPER THROUGH WHICH THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS ARE NOW STARTING TO CATCH ON TO. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF BERYL. THURSDAY NIGHT THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING INCREASING RH AND LIGHT QPF SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE. AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC SATURDAY MORNING BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE DAY COULD DRY IF CURRENT TIMING PANS OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH LESS HUMID AIR FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. THE NEXT FRONT/TROUGH IS FORECAST APPROACH EASTERN NC TUESDAY SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL MUCH OF THE PERIOD (WARMEST TUESDAY) BUT THE PERSISTENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1015 PM TUE...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. MOISTURE AND SHOWERS FROM TD BERYL WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THINK WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NC...THOUGH STILL UNCERTAIN REGARDING EXACT TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING THROUGH THE DAY WED...WITH GUSTS TO 15-20KT LIKELY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SE-NW WED NIGHT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...RAIN FROM BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA THEN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 10 PM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE. LATEST BUOY OBS SHOW PREDOMINATE S/SW WINDS 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM S TO N AS TD BERYL SLOWLY MOVES UP THE SE COAST. ONLY CHANGE TO ONGOING HEADLINES WAS TO ADD PAMLICO SOUND TO SCA FOR FREQ GUSTS TO 25KT WED AND WED NIGHT. TD BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST TONIGHT...AND TRACKING ALONG THE NC COAST WED AND WED EVENING. AT THIS TIME HAVE SEAS PEAKING AT 8-10FT WED...AND COASTAL WATERS COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35KT WED. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 345 PM...WINDS/RAIN/SEAS FROM BERYL WILL AFFECT THE NC WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN DIMINISH LATE SUCH THAT ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS (MAINLY FOR SEAS) SHOULD BE ENDING THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER FLOW BEHIND IT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104. BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NCZ095-098-103-104. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSB/CQD |
| #514603 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:21 PM 29.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1008 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AND TRACK JUST ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM CAPE HATTERAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 PM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TD BERYL OVER SE GA. BERYL WILL SLOWLY MOVE UP THE SE COAST OVERNIGHT. NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. DID ADJUST POPS SLIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MESOMODELS. RAIN AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SW LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TROPICAL AIRMASS...TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST INFLUENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BASED ON THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK BERYL WILL TRACK JUST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NC WEDNESDAY. IT MAY INTENSIFY TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM SOMEWHERE OFF OUR COAST...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING UP TO 6 INCHES WHERE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS PERSIST. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT IF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OR A BIT INLAND AS BERYL INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES ALONG THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR INUNDATION OF LOW LYING AREAS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. THERE WILL BE ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT EROSION OR OVERWASH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING BLOCKING OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND A STRONGLY NEGATIVE NAO WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A PERSISTENT EASTERN US UPPER THROUGH WHICH THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS ARE NOW STARTING TO CATCH ON TO. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF BERYL. THURSDAY NIGHT THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING INCREASING RH AND LIGHT QPF SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE. AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC SATURDAY MORNING BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE DAY COULD DRY IF CURRENT TIMING PANS OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH LESS HUMID AIR FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. THE NEXT FRONT/TROUGH IS FORECAST APPROACH EASTERN NC TUESDAY SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL MUCH OF THE PERIOD (WARMEST TUESDAY) BUT THE PERSISTENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 715 PM TUE...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WANE THIS EVENING AND THINK THAT OVERALL WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE FROM TD BERYL WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THINK WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NC BUT HELD OFF ON PREDOMINATE IFR GROUP FOR NOW UNTIL TIMING OF THIS IMPROVES. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...RAIN FROM BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA THEN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 10 PM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE. LATEST BUOY OBS SHOW PREDOMINATE S/SW WINDS 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM S TO N AS TD BERYL SLOWLY MOVES UP THE SE COAST. ONLY CHANGE TO ONGOING HEADLINES WAS TO ADD PAMLICO SOUND TO SCA FOR FREQ GUSTS TO 25KT WED AND WED NIGHT. TD BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST TONIGHT...AND TRACKING ALONG THE NC COAST WED AND WED EVENING. AT THIS TIME HAVE SEAS PEAKING AT 8-10FT WED...AND COASTAL WATERS COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35KT WED. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 345 PM...WINDS/RAIN/SEAS FROM BERYL WILL AFFECT THE NC WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN DIMINISH LATE SUCH THAT ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS (MAINLY FOR SEAS) SHOULD BE ENDING THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER FLOW BEHIND IT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104. BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NCZ095-098-103-104. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSB/CQD |
| #514568 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:21 PM 29.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 815 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AND TRACK JUST ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM CAPE HATTERAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 715 PM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TD BERYL OVER SE GA. BERYL WILL SLOWLY MOVE UP THE SE COAST OVERNIGHT. NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. DID ADJUST POPS SLIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MESOMODELS. LOOKS LIKE OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING...SO HAVE ADJUSTED NEAR TERM POPS SLIGHTLY...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SW LATE TONIGHT. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF SLIGHT RISK TSTMS AS WELL. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TROPICAL AIRMASS...TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 60S/70 DEG. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST INFLUENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BASED ON THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK BERYL WILL TRACK JUST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NC WEDNESDAY. IT MAY INTENSIFY TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM SOMEWHERE OFF OUR COAST...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING UP TO 6 INCHES WHERE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS PERSIST. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT IF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OR A BIT INLAND AS BERYL INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES ALONG THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR INUNDATION OF LOW LYING AREAS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. THERE WILL BE ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT EROSION OR OVERWASH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING BLOCKING OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND A STRONGLY NEGATIVE NAO WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A PERSISTENT EASTERN US UPPER THROUGH WHICH THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS ARE NOW STARTING TO CATCH ON TO. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF BERYL. THURSDAY NIGHT THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING INCREASING RH AND LIGHT QPF SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE. AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC SATURDAY MORNING BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE DAY COULD DRY IF CURRENT TIMING PANS OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH LESS HUMID AIR FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. THE NEXT FRONT/TROUGH IS FORECAST APPROACH EASTERN NC TUESDAY SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL MUCH OF THE PERIOD (WARMEST TUESDAY) BUT THE PERSISTENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 715 PM TUE...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WANE THIS EVENING AND THINK THAT OVERALL WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE FROM TD BERYL WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THINK WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NC BUT HELD OFF ON PREDOMINATE IFR GROUP FOR NOW UNTIL TIMING OF THIS IMPROVES. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...RAIN FROM BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA THEN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 715 PM TUE...LATEST BUOY OBS SHOW PREDOMINATE S/SW WINDS 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM S TO N AS TD BERYL SLOWLY MOVES UP THE SE COAST. ONLY CHANGE TO ONGOING HEADLINES WAS TO ADD PAMLICO SOUND TO SCA FOR FREQ GUSTS TO 25KT WED AND WED NIGHT. TD BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST TONIGHT...AND TRACKING ALONG THE NC COAST WED AND WED EVENING. AT THIS TIME HAVE SEAS PEAKING AT 8-10FT WED...AND COASTAL WATERS COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35KT WED. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 345 PM...WINDS/RAIN/SEAS FROM BERYL WILL AFFECT THE NC WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN DIMINISH LATE SUCH THAT ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS (MAINLY FOR SEAS) SHOULD BE ENDING THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER FLOW BEHIND IT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104. BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NCZ095-098-103-104. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSB/CQD |
| #514542 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:29 PM 29.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 720 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AND TRACK JUST ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM CAPE HATTERAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 715 PM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TD BERYL OVER SE GA. BERYL WILL SLOWLY MOVE UP THE SE COAST OVERNIGHT. NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. DID ADJUST POPS SLIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MESOMODELS. LOOKS LIKE OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING...SO HAVE ADJUSTED NEAR TERM POPS SLIGHTLY...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SW LATE TONIGHT. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF SLIGHT RISK TSTMS AS WELL. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TROPICAL AIRMASS...TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 60S/70 DEG. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST INFLUENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BASED ON THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK BERYL WILL TRACK JUST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NC WEDNESDAY. IT MAY INTENSIFY TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM SOMEWHERE OFF OUR COAST...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING UP TO 6 INCHES WHERE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS PERSIST. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT IF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OR A BIT INLAND AS BERYL INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES ALONG THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR INUNDATION OF LOW LYING AREAS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. THERE WILL BE ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT EROSION OR OVERWASH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING BLOCKING OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND A STRONGLY NEGATIVE NAO WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A PERSISTENT EASTERN US UPPER THROUGH WHICH THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS ARE NOW STARTING TO CATCH ON TO. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF BERYL. THURSDAY NIGHT THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING INCREASING RH AND LIGHT QPF SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE. AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC SATURDAY MORNING BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE DAY COULD DRY IF CURRENT TIMING PANS OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH LESS HUMID AIR FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. THE NEXT FRONT/TROUGH IS FORECAST APPROACH EASTERN NC TUESDAY SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL MUCH OF THE PERIOD (WARMEST TUESDAY) BUT THE PERSISTENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 715 PM TUE...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WANE THIS EVENING AND THINK THAT OVERALL WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE FROM TD BERYL WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THINK WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NC BUT HELD OFF ON PREDOMINATE IFR GROUP FOR NOW UNTIL TIMING OF THIS IMPROVES. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...RAIN FROM BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA THEN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 715 PM TUE...LATEST BUOY OBS SHOW PREDOMINATE S/SW WINDS 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM S TO N AS TD BERYL SLOWLY MOVES UP THE SE COAST. ONLY CHANGE TO ONGOING HEADLINES WAS TO ADD PAMLICO SOUND TO SCA FOR FREQ GUSTS TO 25KT WED AND WED NIGHT. TD BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST TONIGHT...AND TRACKING ALONG THE NC COAST WED AND WED EVENING. AT THIS TIME HAVE SEAS PEAKING AT 8-10FT WED...AND COASTAL WATERS COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35KT WED. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 345 PM...WINDS/RAIN/SEAS FROM BERYL WILL AFFECT THE NC WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN DIMINISH LATE SUCH THAT ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS (MAINLY FOR SEAS) SHOULD BE ENDING THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER FLOW BEHIND IT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104. BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NCZ095-098-103-104. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSB |
| #514476 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:54 PM 29.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 352 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA AND TRACK JUST ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM CAPE HATTERAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUE...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE MAIN BANDS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WHICH WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST INFLUENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BASED ON THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK BERYL WILL TRACK JUST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NC WEDNESDAY. IT MAY INTENSIFY TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM SOMEWHERE OFF OUR COAST...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING UP TO 6 INCHES WHERE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS PERSIST. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT IF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OR A BIT INLAND AS BERYL INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES ALONG THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR INUNDATION OF LOW LYING AREAS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. THERE WILL BE ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT EROSION OR OVERWASH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING BLOCKING OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND A STRONGLY NEGATIVE NAO WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A PERSISTENT EASTERN US UPPER THROUGH WHICH THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS ARE NOW STARTING TO CATCH ON TO. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF BERYL. THURSDAY NIGHT THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING INCREASING RH AND LIGHT QPF SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE. AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC SATURDAY MORNING BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE DAY COULD DRY IF CURRENT TIMING PANS OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH LESS HUMID AIR FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. THE NEXT FRONT/TROUGH IS FORECAST APPROACH EASTERN NC TUESDAY SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL MUCH OF THE PERIOD (WARMEST TUESDAY) BUT THE PERSISTENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /18Z TODAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL VARY RAPIDLY AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM IFR IN BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINS TO VFR OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NC. THINK THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER SUNSET THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE FROM TD BERYL WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THINK WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NC BUT HELD OFF ON PREDOMINATE IFR GROUP FOR NOW UNTIL TIMING OF THIS IMPROVES. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...RAIN FROM BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA THEN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/ AS OF 300 AM TUE...GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO NHC TRACK DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO MARINE FORECAST THIS ISSUANCE. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND GRIDS AND SEAS BASED ON LATEST TRACK FOLLOWING THE 5 PM ADVISORY FROM NHC. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 345 PM...WINDS/RAIN/SEAS FROM BERYL WILL AFFECT THE NC WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN DIMINISH LATE SUCH THAT ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS (MAINLY FOR SEAS) SHOULD BE ENDING THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER FLOW BEHIND IT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSB |
| #514462 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:27 PM 29.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 315 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA AND TRACK JUST ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM CAPE HATTERAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUE...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE MAIN BANDS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WHICH WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST INFLUENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BASED ON THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK BERYL WILL TRACK JUST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NC WEDNESDAY. IT MAY INTENSIFY TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM SOMEWHERE OFF OUR COAST...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING UP TO 6 INCHES WHERE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS PERSIST. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT IF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OR A BIT INLAND AS BERYL INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES ALONG THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR INUNDATION OF LOW LYING AREAS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. THERE WILL BE ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT EROSION OR OVERWASH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A VERY MOIST TROPICAL INFLOW WILL BE BROUGHT IN AHEAD OF BERYL AS THE STORM MOVES NEAR THE SE NC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER OF NEARLY 2.25 INCHES (WHICH IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM) IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN 4 TO 6 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST WITH TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL INLAND. THIS AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH RECENT RAINFALL LEADING TO HIGHER STREAMFLOWS ACRS THE AREA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THRU WED EVE. FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 4 AM-11 PM WED WITH SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST TO SEE THE HEAVY RAIN WED MORNING SHIFTING TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. OTHER IMPACTS ASSOCD WITH BERYL WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND MINOR COASTAL/SOUNDSIDE FLOODING. CURRENT WATER LEVEL FORECASTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE 1-2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL OWING TO THE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING STORM. AS IS TYPICAL OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW BUT WILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANY MINI SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN RAIN BANDS THAT CUD PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO. BERYL EXITS EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS WED EVE AND MAY STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OFF THE NC COAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ENDING ACRS THE AREA BUT GUSTY N/NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF BERYL WILL BE ONGOING THRU MIDNIGHT FOR THE OUTER BANKS. FOR NOW KEPT THU DRY IN WAKE OF BERYL...DO HAVE BNDRY ACROSS AREA HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITED. CHC POPS CONT FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS INIT BNDRY LIFTS N AND STRONG FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W...SOME STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF THE CST SAT WITH COOLER AND MAINLY LESS HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /18Z TODAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL VARY RAPIDLY AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM IFR IN BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINS TO VFR OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NC. THINK THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER SUNSET THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE FROM TD BERYL WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THINK WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NC BUT HELD OFF ON PREDOMINATE IFR GROUP FOR NOW UNTIL TIMING OF THIS IMPROVES. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...RAIN FROM BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA THEN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/ AS OF 300 AM TUE...GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO NHC TRACK DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO MARINE FORECAST THIS ISSUANCE. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND GRIDS AND SEAS BASED ON LATEST TRACK FOLLOWING THE 5 PM ADVISORY FROM NHC. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... S/SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY WED OVER SRN AND CNTRAL COASTAL WATERS TIER IN ADVANCE OF TROP DEPRESSION BERYL. EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AS BERYL PASSES JUST OFF THE CST THRU WED EVE. WAVEWATCH AND SWAN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEAS PEAKING IN THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS FOR THE OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. WINDS DIMINISH QUITE A BIT AS MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM BERYL WITH SOUNDS/NRN WTRS MAINLY 15 TO 25 KTS. AS BERYL EXITS WED NIGHT INTO THU WINDS WILL BECOME NW TO N AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KTS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. SRLY WINDS INCREASE FRI AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND COULD GET CLOSE TO SCA LATE...FOR NOW KEPT JUST BELOW. FRONT WILL CROSS LATE FRI NIGHT OR EARLY SAT WITH MAINLY WRLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSB |
| #514437 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:50 PM 29.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 141 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... THE REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 915 AM TUE...MADE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS TO HIGH CHANCE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS TO LIKELY IN A SWATH ALONG PAMLICO SOUND TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. PREV DISC...THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS IS FAVORED FOR THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF BERYL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO AM USING IT FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE IN BETTER SUPPLY THAN YESTERDAY. A BOUNDARY LAYER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF THE 00Z MAV/MET GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 315 AM TUE...TIME SECTIONS SHOW BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT ARRIVING LATER THIS EVENING SO WILL EXTEND CHANCE POPS FROM TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE STRONG LIFT ARRIVES AND RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ALL AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND OVERCAST SKIES. UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGHOUT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A VERY MOIST TROPICAL INFLOW WILL BE BROUGHT IN AHEAD OF BERYL AS THE STORM MOVES NEAR THE SE NC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER OF NEARLY 2.25 INCHES (WHICH IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM) IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN 4 TO 6 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST WITH TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL INLAND. THIS AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH RECENT RAINFALL LEADING TO HIGHER STREAMFLOWS ACRS THE AREA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THRU WED EVE. FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 4 AM-11 PM WED WITH SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST TO SEE THE HEAVY RAIN WED MORNING SHIFTING TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. OTHER IMPACTS ASSOCD WITH BERYL WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND MINOR COASTAL/SOUNDSIDE FLOODING. CURRENT WATER LEVEL FORECASTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE 1-2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL OWING TO THE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING STORM. AS IS TYPICAL OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW BUT WILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANY MINI SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN RAIN BANDS THAT CUD PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO. BERYL EXITS EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS WED EVE AND MAY STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OFF THE NC COAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ENDING ACRS THE AREA BUT GUSTY N/NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF BERYL WILL BE ONGOING THRU MIDNIGHT FOR THE OUTER BANKS. FOR NOW KEPT THU DRY IN WAKE OF BERYL...DO HAVE BNDRY ACROSS AREA HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITED. CHC POPS CONT FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS INIT BNDRY LIFTS N AND STRONG FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W...SOME STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF THE CST SAT WITH COOLER AND MAINLY LESS HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /18Z TODAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL VARY RAPIDLY AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM IFR IN BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINS TO VFR OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NC. THINK THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER SUNSET THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE FROM TD BERYL WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THINK WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NC BUT HELD OFF ON PREDOMINATE IFR GROUP FOR NOW UNTIL TIMING OF THIS IMPROVES. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...RAIN FROM BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA THEN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/ AS OF 915 AM TUE...NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO FORECAST EXCEPT INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN THE PAMLICO SOUND. PREV DISCUSSION...00Z GFS IS FAVORED BY NHC FOR THE REMANANS OF BERYL SO HAVE RELIED ON IT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ALL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT IN BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE REMNANTS OF BERYL TO THE SOUTH. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET NORTH TO 3-5 FEET SOUTH. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... S/SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY WED OVER SRN AND CNTRAL COASTAL WATERS TIER IN ADVANCE OF TROP DEPRESSION BERYL. EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AS BERYL PASSES JUST OFF THE CST THRU WED EVE. WAVEWATCH AND SWAN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEAS PEAKING IN THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS FOR THE OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. WINDS DIMINISH QUITE A BIT AS MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM BERYL WITH SOUNDS/NRN WTRS MAINLY 15 TO 25 KTS. AS BERYL EXITS WED NIGHT INTO THU WINDS WILL BECOME NW TO N AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KTS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. SRLY WINDS INCREASE FRI AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND COULD GET CLOSE TO SCA LATE...FOR NOW KEPT JUST BELOW. FRONT WILL CROSS LATE FRI NIGHT OR EARLY SAT WITH MAINLY WRLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSA |
| #514392 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:33 AM 29.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 925 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... THE REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 915 AM TUE...MADE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS TO HIGH CHANCE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS TO LIKELY IN A SWATH ALONG PAMLICO SOUND TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. PREV DISC...THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS IS FAVORED FOR THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF BERYL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO AM USING IT FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE IN BETTER SUPPLY THAN YESTERDAY. A BOUNDARY LAYER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF THE 00Z MAV/MET GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 315 AM TUE...TIME SECTIONS SHOW BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT ARRIVING LATER THIS EVENING SO WILL EXTEND CHANCE POPS FROM TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE STRONG LIFT ARRIVES AND RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ALL AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND OVERCAST SKIES. UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGHOUT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A VERY MOIST TROPICAL INFLOW WILL BE BROUGHT IN AHEAD OF BERYL AS THE STORM MOVES NEAR THE SE NC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER OF NEARLY 2.25 INCHES (WHICH IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM) IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN 4 TO 6 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST WITH TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL INLAND. THIS AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH RECENT RAINFALL LEADING TO HIGHER STREAMFLOWS ACRS THE AREA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THRU WED EVE. FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 4 AM-11 PM WED WITH SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST TO SEE THE HEAVY RAIN WED MORNING SHIFTING TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. OTHER IMPACTS ASSOCD WITH BERYL WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND MINOR COASTAL/SOUNDSIDE FLOODING. CURRENT WATER LEVEL FORECASTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE 1-2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL OWING TO THE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING STORM. AS IS TYPICAL OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW BUT WILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANY MINI SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN RAIN BANDS THAT CUD PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO. BERYL EXITS EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS WED EVE AND MAY STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OFF THE NC COAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ENDING ACRS THE AREA BUT GUSTY N/NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF BERYL WILL BE ONGOING THRU MIDNIGHT FOR THE OUTER BANKS. FOR NOW KEPT THU DRY IN WAKE OF BERYL...DO HAVE BNDRY ACROSS AREA HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITED. CHC POPS CONT FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS INIT BNDRY LIFTS N AND STRONG FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W...SOME STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF THE CST SAT WITH COOLER AND MAINLY LESS HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/ AS OF 715 AM TUE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SUN COMES UP AND ATMOS MIXES OUT. EXPECT SCATTERED CU THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 4 KFT WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED WHICH WILL LAST INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF BERYL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND POSS A FEW TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM N TO S EARLY WED AS TROP DEPRESSION BERYL LIFTS NE NEAR OR JUST OFF CAROLINA CST. SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY MUCH OF WED WHEN HEAVIEST PRECIP OCCURS. FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES. FRONT WILL LINGER IN AREA THU INTO THU NIGHT WITH POSS SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ESPCLY THU NIGHT. MORE SCT SHRA AND TSRA FRI AND FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME OCNL LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY LATER SAT WITH VFR IN ITS WAKE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/ AS OF 915 AM TUE...NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO FORECAST EXCEPT INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN THE PAMLICO SOUND. PREV DISCUSSION...00Z GFS IS FAVORED BY NHC FOR THE REMANANS OF BERYL SO HAVE RELIED ON IT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ALL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT IN BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE REMNANTS OF BERYL TO THE SOUTH. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET NORTH TO 3-5 FEET SOUTH. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... S/SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY WED OVER SRN AND CNTRAL COASTAL WATERS TIER IN ADVANCE OF TROP DEPRESSION BERYL. EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AS BERYL PASSES JUST OFF THE CST THRU WED EVE. WAVEWATCH AND SWAN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEAS PEAKING IN THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS FOR THE OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. WINDS DIMINISH QUITE A BIT AS MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM BERYL WITH SOUNDS/NRN WTRS MAINLY 15 TO 25 KTS. AS BERYL EXITS WED NIGHT INTO THU WINDS WILL BECOME NW TO N AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KTS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. SRLY WINDS INCREASE FRI AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND COULD GET CLOSE TO SCA LATE...FOR NOW KEPT JUST BELOW. FRONT WILL CROSS LATE FRI NIGHT OR EARLY SAT WITH MAINLY WRLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSA |
| #514379 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:24 AM 29.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 714 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... THE REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... AS OF 715 AM TUE...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE TO THE SOUTH. CURRENT ZONES IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES NECESSARY. PREV DISC...THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS IS FAVORED FOR THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF BERYL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO AM USING IT FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE IN BETTER SUPPLY THAN YESTERDAY. A BOUNDARY LAYER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF THE 00Z MAV/MET GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM TUE...TIME SECTIONS SHOW BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT ARRIVING LATER THIS EVENING SO WILL EXTEND CHANCE POPS FROM TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE STRONG LIFT ARRIVES AND RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ALL AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND OVERCAST SKIES. UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGHOUT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A VERY MOIST TROPICAL INFLOW WILL BE BROUGHT IN AHEAD OF BERYL AS THE STORM MOVES NEAR THE SE NC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER OF NEARLY 2.25 INCHES (WHICH IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM) IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN 4 TO 6 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST WITH TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL INLAND. THIS AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH RECENT RAINFALL LEADING TO HIGHER STREAMFLOWS ACRS THE AREA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THRU WED EVE. FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 4 AM-11 PM WED WITH SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST TO SEE THE HEAVY RAIN WED MORNING SHIFTING TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. OTHER IMPACTS ASSOCD WITH BERYL WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND MINOR COASTAL/SOUNDSIDE FLOODING. CURRENT WATER LEVEL FORECASTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE 1-2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL OWING TO THE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING STORM. AS IS TYPICAL OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW BUT WILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANY MINI SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN RAIN BANDS THAT CUD PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO. BERYL EXITS EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS WED EVE AND MAY STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OFF THE NC COAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ENDING ACRS THE AREA BUT GUSTY N/NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF BERYL WILL BE ONGOING THRU MIDNIGHT FOR THE OUTER BANKS. FOR NOW KEPT THU DRY IN WAKE OF BERYL...DO HAVE BNDRY ACROSS AREA HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITED. CHC POPS CONT FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS INIT BNDRY LIFTS N AND STRONG FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W...SOME STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF THE CST SAT WITH COOLER AND MAINLY LESS HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/ AS OF 715 AM TUE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SUN COMES UP AND ATMOS MIXES OUT. EXPECT SCATTERED CU THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 4 KFT WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED WHICH WILL LAST INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF BERYL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND POSS A FEW TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM N TO S EARLY WED AS TROP DEPRESSION BERYL LIFTS NE NEAR OR JUST OFF CAROLINA CST. SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY MUCH OF WED WHEN HEAVIEST PRECIP OCCURS. FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES. FRONT WILL LINGER IN AREA THU INTO THU NIGHT WITH POSS SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ESPCLY THU NIGHT. MORE SCT SHRA AND TSRA FRI AND FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME OCNL LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY LATER SAT WITH VFR IN ITS WAKE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/ AS OF 715 AM TUE...CURRENT MARINE ZONES MATCH UP WELL WITH LAND/BUOY OBS. NO CHANGES NEEDED. 00Z GFS IS FAVORED BY NHC FOR THE REMANANS OF BERYL SO HAVE RELIED ON IT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ALL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT IN BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE REMNANTS OF BERYL TO THE SOUTH. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET NORTH TO 3-5 FEET SOUTH. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... S/SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY WED OVER SRN AND CNTRAL COASTAL WATERS TIER IN ADVANCE OF TROP DEPRESSION BERYL. EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AS BERYL PASSES JUST OFF THE CST THRU WED EVE. WAVEWATCH AND SWAN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEAS PEAKING IN THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS FOR THE OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. WINDS DIMINISH QUITE A BIT AS MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM BERYL WITH SOUNDS/NRN WTRS MAINLY 15 TO 25 KTS. AS BERYL EXITS WED NIGHT INTO THU WINDS WILL BECOME NW TO N AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KTS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. SRLY WINDS INCREASE FRI AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND COULD GET CLOSE TO SCA LATE...FOR NOW KEPT JUST BELOW. FRONT WILL CROSS LATE FRI NIGHT OR EARLY SAT WITH MAINLY WRLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ |
| #514343 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:21 AM 29.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 408 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... THE REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 315 AM TUE...THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS IS FAVORED FOR THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF BERYL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO AM USING IT FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE IN BETTER SUPPLY THAN YESTERDAY. A BOUNDARY LAYER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF THE 00Z MAV/MET GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM TUE...TIME SECTIONS SHOW BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT ARRIVING LATER THIS EVENING SO WILL EXTEND CHANCE POPS FROM TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE STRONG LIFT ARRIVES AND RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ALL AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND OVERCAST SKIES. UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGHOUT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A VERY MOIST TROPICAL INFLOW WILL BE BROUGHT IN AHEAD OF BERYL AS THE STORM MOVES NEAR THE SE NC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER OF NEARLY 2.25 INCHES (WHICH IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM) IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN 4 TO 6 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST WITH TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL INLAND. THIS AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH RECENT RAINFALL LEADING TO HIGHER STREAMFLOWS ACRS THE AREA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THRU WED EVE. FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 4 AM-11 PM WED WITH SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST TO SEE THE HEAVY RAIN WED MORNING SHIFTING TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. OTHER IMPACTS ASSOCD WITH BERYL WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND MINOR COASTAL/SOUNDSIDE FLOODING. CURRENT WATER LEVEL FORECASTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE 1-2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL OWING TO THE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING STORM. AS IS TYPICAL OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW BUT WILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANY MINI SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN RAIN BANDS THAT CUD PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO. BERYL EXITS EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS WED EVE AND MAY STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OFF THE NC COAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ENDING ACRS THE AREA BUT GUSTY N/NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF BERYL WILL BE ONGOING THRU MIDNIGHT FOR THE OUTER BANKS. FOR NOW KEPT THU DRY IN WAKE OF BERYL...DO HAVE BNDRY ACROSS AREA HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITED. CHC POPS CONT FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS INIT BNDRY LIFTS N AND STRONG FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W...SOME STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF THE CST SAT WITH COOLER AND MAINLY LESS HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/ AS OF 315 AM TUE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT SCATTERED CU THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 4 KFT WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED WHICH WILL LAST INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF BERYL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND POSS A FEW TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM N TO S EARLY WED AS TROP DEPRESSION BERYL LIFTS NE NEAR OR JUST OFF CAROLINA CST. SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY MUCH OF WED WHEN HEAVIEST PRECIP OCCURS. FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES. FRONT WILL LINGER IN AREA THU INTO THU NIGHT WITH POSS SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ESPCLY THU NIGHT. MORE SCT SHRA AND TSRA FRI AND FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME OCNL LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY LATER SAT WITH VFR IN ITS WAKE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/ AS OF 315 AM TUE...SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ALL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT IN BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE REMNANTS OF BERYL TO THE SOUTH. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET NORTH TO 3-5 FEET SOUTH. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... S/SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY WED OVER SRN AND CNTRAL COASTAL WATERS TIER IN ADVANCE OF TROP DEPRESSION BERYL. EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AS BERYL PASSES JUST OFF THE CST THRU WED EVE. WAVEWATCH AND SWAN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEAS PEAKING IN THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS FOR THE OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. WINDS DIMINISH QUITE A BIT AS MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM BERYL WITH SOUNDS/NRN WTRS MAINLY 15 TO 25 KTS. AS BERYL EXITS WED NIGHT INTO THU WINDS WILL BECOME NW TO N AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KTS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. SRLY WINDS INCREASE FRI AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND COULD GET CLOSE TO SCA LATE...FOR NOW KEPT JUST BELOW. FRONT WILL CROSS LATE FRI NIGHT OR EARLY SAT WITH MAINLY WRLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #514341 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:18 AM 29.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 408 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... THE REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 315 AM TUE...THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS IS FAVORED FOR THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF BERYL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO AM USING IT FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE IN BETTER SUPPLY THAN YESTERDAY. A BOUNDARY LAYER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF THE 00Z MAV/MET GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM TUE...TIME SECTIONS SHOW BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT ARRIVING LATER THIS EVENING SO WILL EXTEND CHANCE POPS FROM TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE STRONG LIFT ARRIVES AND RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ALL AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND OVERCAST SKIES. UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGHOUT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A VERY MOIST TROPICAL INFLOW WILL BE BROUGHT IN AHEAD OF BERYL AS THE STORM MOVES NEAR THE SE NC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER OF NEARLY 2.25 INCHES (WHICH IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM) IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN 4 TO 6 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST WITH TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL INLAND. THIS AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH RECENT RAINFALL LEADING TO HIGHER STREAMFLOWS ACRS THE AREA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THRU WED EVE. FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 4 AM-11 PM WED WITH SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST TO SEE THE HEAVY RAIN WED MORNING SHIFTING TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. OTHER IMPACTS ASSOCD WITH BERYL WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND MINOR COASTAL/SOUNDSIDE FLOODING. CURRENT WATER LEVEL FORECASTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE 1-2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL OWING TO THE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING STORM. AS IS TYPICAL OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW BUT WILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANY MINI SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN RAIN BANDS THAT CUD PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO. BERYL EXITS EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS WED EVE AND MAY STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OFF THE NC COAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ENDING ACRS THE AREA BUT GUSTY N/NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF BERYL WILL BE ONGOING THRU MIDNIGHT FOR THE OUTER BANKS. FOR NOW KEPT THU DRY IN WAKE OF BERYL...DO HAVE BNDRY ACROSS AREA HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITED. CHC POPS CONT FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS INIT BNDRY LIFTS N AND STRONG FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W...SOME STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF THE CST SAT WITH COOLER AND MAINLY LESS HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/ AS OF 315 AM TUE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT SCATTERED CU THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 4 KFT WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED WHICH WILL LAST INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF BERYL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND POSS A FEW TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM N TO S EARLY WED AS TROP DEPRESSION BERYL LIFTS NE NEAR OR JUST OFF CAROLINA CST. SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY MUCH OF WED WHEN HEAVIEST PRECIP OCCURS. FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES. FRONT WILL LINGER IN AREA THU INTO THU NIGHT WITH POSS SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ESPCLY THU NIGHT. MORE SCT SHRA AND TSRA FRI AND FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME OCNL LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY LATER SAT WITH VFR IN ITS WAKE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/ AS OF 315 AM TUE...SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ALL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT IN BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE REMNANTS OF BERYL TO THE SOUTH. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET NORTH TO 3-5 FEET SOUTH. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... S/SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY WED OVER SRN AND CNTRAL COASTAL WATERS TIER IN ADVANCE OF TROP DEPRESSION BERYL. EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AS BERYL PASSES JUST OFF THE CST THRU WED EVE. WAVEWATCH AND SWAN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEAS PEAKING IN THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS FOR THE OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. WINDS DIMINISH QUITE A BIT AS MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM BERYL WITH SOUNDS/NRN WTRS MAINLY 15 TO 25 KTS. AS BERYL EXITS WED NIGHT INTO THU WINDS WILL BECOME NW TO N AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KTS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. SRLY WINDS INCREASE FRI AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND COULD GET CLOSE TO SCA LATE...FOR NOW KEPT JUST BELOW. FRONT WILL CROSS LATE FRI NIGHT OR EARLY SAT WITH MAINLY WRLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #514334 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:15 AM 29.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 408 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... THE REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 315 AM TUE...THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS IS FAVORED FOR THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF BERYL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO AM USING IT FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE IN BETTER SUPPLY THAN YESTERDAY. A BOUNDARY LAYER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF THE 00Z MAV/MET GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM TUE...TIME SECTIONS SHOW BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT ARRIVING LATER THIS EVENING SO WILL EXTEND CHANCE POPS FROM TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE STRONG LIFT ARRIVES AND RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ALL AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND OVERCAST SKIES. UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGHOUT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A VERY MOIST TROPICAL INFLOW WILL BE BROUGHT IN AHEAD OF BERYL AS THE STORM MOVES NEAR THE SE NC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER OF NEARLY 2.25 INCHES (WHICH IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM) IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN 4 TO 6 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST WITH TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL INLAND. THIS AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH RECENT RAINFALL LEADING TO HIGHER STREAMFLOWS ACRS THE AREA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THRU WED EVE. FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 4 AM-11 PM WED WITH SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST TO SEE THE HEAVY RAIN WED MORNING SHIFTING TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. OTHER IMPACTS ASSOCD WITH BERYL WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND MINOR COASTAL/SOUNDSIDE FLOODING. CURRENT WATER LEVEL FORECASTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE 1-2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL OWING TO THE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING STORM. AS IS TYPICAL OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW BUT WILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANY MINI SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN RAIN BANDS THAT CUD PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO. BERYL EXITS EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS WED EVE AND MAY STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OFF THE NC COAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ENDING ACRS THE AREA BUT GUSTY N/NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF BERYL WILL BE ONGOING THRU MIDNIGHT FOR THE OUTER BANKS. FOR NOW KEPT THU DRY IN WAKE OF BERYL...DO HAVE BNDRY ACROSS AREA HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITED. CHC POPS CONT FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS INIT BNDRY LIFTS N AND STRONG FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W...SOME STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF THE CST SAT WITH COOLER AND MAINLY LESS HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/ AS OF 315 AM TUE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT SCATTERED CU THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 4 KFT WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED WHICH WILL LAST INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF BERYL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND POSS A FEW TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM N TO S EARLY WED AS TROP DEPRESSION BERYL LIFTS NE NEAR OR JUST OFF CAROLINA CST. SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY MUCH OF WED WHEN HEAVIEST PRECIP OCCURS. FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES. FRONT WILL LINGER IN AREA THU INTO THU NIGHT WITH POSS SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ESPCLY THU NIGHT. MORE SCT SHRA AND TSRA FRI AND FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME OCNL LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY LATER SAT WITH VFR IN ITS WAKE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/ AS OF 315 AM TUE...SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ALL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT IN BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE REMNANTS OF BERYL TO THE SOUTH. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET NORTH TO 3-5 FEET SOUTH. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... S/SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY WED OVER SRN AND CNTRAL COASTAL WATERS TIER IN ADVANCE OF TROP DEPRESSION BERYL. EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AS BERYL PASSES JUST OFF THE CST THRU WED EVE. WAVEWATCH AND SWAN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEAS PEAKING IN THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS FOR THE OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. WINDS DIMINISH QUITE A BIT AS MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM BERYL WITH SOUNDS/NRN WTRS MAINLY 15 TO 25 KTS. AS BERYL EXITS WED NIGHT INTO THU WINDS WILL BECOME NW TO N AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KTS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. SRLY WINDS INCREASE FRI AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND COULD GET CLOSE TO SCA LATE...FOR NOW KEPT JUST BELOW. FRONT WILL CROSS LATE FRI NIGHT OR EARLY SAT WITH MAINLY WRLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
