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Tropical Storm #Barry Has Formed in the SW Bay of Campeche. Flhurricane.com
Tropical Storm #Barry Has Formed in the SW Bay of Campeche. Flhurricane.com
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Melbourne, FL (East Central Florida) Selection: |
| #514572 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:23 PM 29.May.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 810 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... OVERNIGHT...STORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS PUTNAM COUNTY TOWARD FLAGLER COUNTY MAY GRAZE THE NORTHERN AREAS OF VOLUSIA COUNTY THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN SAINT AUGUSTINE AND FLAGLER BEACH. AN OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS MAY STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO TRIGGER LATE EVENING STORMS NORTHERN VOLUSIA BUT SHOULD BE A SHORT LIVED STORMS WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY. SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BETWEEN VERO BEACH AND INDIANTOWN WILL TRACK OFF THE MAINLAND AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN VERO BEACH TO JUPITER INLET. MID AND HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL THIN OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNRISE. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S LOOKS GOOD GIVEN CURRENT DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. A FEW UPPER 60S IN THE USUAL COOLER LOCATIONS. UPDATED THE SURFACE WIND GRIDS TO SHOW WINDS DECREASING TO THE 5 TO 8 MPH RANGE TOWARD SUNRISE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WEDNESDAY...BERYL OR ASSOCIATED REMNANT LOW FORECAST TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE IN WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLLISION BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST COAST BOUNDARIES OCCURS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 COAST...AND LOWER 90S INTERIOR. WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL RULE THE MID-LEVELS THROUGH THIS TIME. THE REMNANTS OF BERYL EARLY IN THE PERIOD NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE A MORE RAPID MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL STAY THERE WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK WITH A DAILY SEA BREEZE REGIME ON THU BUT INLAND MOVEMENT WILL BE RETARDED BY WEAK/DEEPER OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST WITH SOME CELLS EMERGING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE EAST COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WED/THU NIGHT TO CONTINUE MAINLY BETWEEN 70 AND 75 DEGREES AREAWIDE. HIGHS THU AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST WITH LOWER 90S PREDOMINANT ACROSS THE INTERIOR. FRI-MON...(EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION)...THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL ALLOW THE THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS TO DRIFT INTO THE S HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA ON FRI. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL BE HALTED BY A NEW STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DVLP FROM THE BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON THU. BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS DVLP AN EXPANSIVE CIRCULATION WITH THIS NEW SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS ACRS THE LWR MS VALLEY AND INTO THE MID WEST/GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS H100-H70 CYCLONIC FLOW EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE MS RIVER BY MIDDAY SAT. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE STORM SYSTEM AND THE ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP WRLY BREEZE ACRS CENTRAL FL. THESE WRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE THE DRIER AND LESS ENERGETIC AIRMASS OVER THE GOMEX WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY PREVENTING THE BULK OF AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM PUSHING MUCH FURTHER N THAN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THE WRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM WELL PAST THEIR CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS...LIMITED LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL KEEP TOTAL PRECIP COVERAGE AOB 50PCT FRI/SAT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AOB 30PCT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE ERN CONUS AND PLACES THE DEEP SOUTH AND MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. && .AVIATION...SURFACE WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONG TONIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT STRATUS. INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP WAS SHOWING THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS BEGINNING TO THIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND SLOWLY THIN SOUTH TO NORTH ONCE THE EVENING STORMS DISSIPATE. && .MARINE...NOAA BUOYS 009 AND 010 WERE RECORDING SOUTH WINDS AROUND 17 KNOTS AND 5 FOOT SEAS. SCRIPPS BUOYS 113 AND 114 OFF PORT CANAVERAL AND FORT PIERCE INLET WERE RECORDING 3 FOOT SEAS. WILL LIMIT SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FEET WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT BUOY REPORTS. WILL KEEP THE CAUTIONARY HEADLINE FOR WINDS IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION WED...OFFSHORE WESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY BUT AOB 10-15 KT WITH ONSHORE COMPONENT DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON... STORMS AGAIN MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE MAINLAND LATE DAY INTO WED EVENING. WED NIGHT-SUN...REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL BE WELL CLEAR OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE WELL INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS REMAINING SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. OFFSHORE MOVING AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS A WESTERLY COMPONENT. SW WINDS 10-12 KTS WED NIGHT WILL BECOME WESTERLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER SW THU MORNING BEFORE BACKING SE/ESE NEAR THE COAST DUE TO EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION. WINDS AGAIN BECOME SW/W THU EVENING/NIGHT WITH SPEEDS FALLING BELOW 10 KTS. THIS TREND OF LIGHT WINDS VEERING IN THE EVENING AND BACKING IN THE AFTERNOON (SEA BREEZE REGIME) CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514473 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:53 PM 29.May.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 345 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... THROUGH TONIGHT...MID AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS. AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH HAS BEEN SHRINKING IN COVERAGE BUT SOME BREAKS STARTING TO DEVELOP IN THE CLOUDS THERE SO ANTICIPATE SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THIS OCCURS. HAVE PUT IN SCATTERED POPS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THIS EVENING...ISOLD FAR SOUTH WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT MINS GENERALLY LOW/MID 70S. WEDNESDAY...BERYL OR ASSOCIATED REMNANT LOW FORECAST TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE IN WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLLISION BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST COAST BOUNDARIES OCCURS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 COAST...AND LOWER 90S INTERIOR. WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL RULE THE MID-LEVELS THROUGH THIS TIME. THE REMNANTS OF BERYL EARLY IN THE PERIOD NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE A MORE RAPID MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL STAY THERE WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK WITH A DAILY SEA BREEZE REGIME ON THU BUT INLAND MOVEMENT WILL BE RETARDED BY WEAK/DEEPER OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST WITH SOME CELLS EMERGING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE EAST COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WED/THU NIGHT TO CONTINUE MAINLY BETWEEN 70 AND 75 DEGREES AREAWIDE. HIGHS THU AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST WITH LOWER 90S PREDOMINANT ACROSS THE INTERIOR. FRI-MON...(EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION)...THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL ALLOW THE THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS TO DRIFT INTO THE S HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA ON FRI. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL BE HALTED BY A NEW STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DVLP FROM THE BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON THU. BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS DVLP AN EXPANSIVE CIRCULATION WITH THIS NEW SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS ACRS THE LWR MS VALLEY AND INTO THE MID WEST/GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS H100-H70 CYCLONIC FLOW EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE MS RIVER BY MIDDAY SAT. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE STORM SYSTEM AND THE ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP WRLY BREEZE ACRS CENTRAL FL. THESE WRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE THE DRIER AND LESS ENERGETIC AIRMASS OVER THE GOMEX WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY PREVENTING THE BULK OF AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM PUSHING MUCH FURTHER N THAN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THE WRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM WELL PAST THEIR CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS...LIMITED LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL KEEP TOTAL PRECIP COVERAGE AOB 50PCT FRI/SAT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AOB 30PCT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE ERN CONUS AND PLACES THE DEEP SOUTH AND MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. && .AVIATION...TEMPO REDUCTIONS OCCURRING IN SHRA/TSRA EXTENDING NEAR THE COAST SWD OF KMLB TO JUPITER INLET. AREAS OF RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS TO THE NORTH DECREASING IN COVERAGE BUT BREAKS IN CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THESE AREAS. IMPROVEMENT AFTER SUNSET WITH MOST AREAS VFR BY AROUND 30/02Z. && .MARINE...WILL KEEP A CAUTIONARY HEADLINE UP FOR OFFSHORE ZONES TONIGHT FOR SW WINDS 15-20KT. EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING. OFFSHORE WESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY BUT AOB 10-15 KT WITH ONSHORE COMPONENT DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...STORMS AGAIN MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE MAINLAND LATE DAY INTO WED EVENING. WED NIGHT-SUN...REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL BE WELL CLEAR OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE WELL INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS REMAINING SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. OFFSHORE MOVING AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS A WESTERLY COMPONENT. SW WINDS 10-12 KTS WED NIGHT WILL BECOME WESTERLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER SW THU MORNING BEFORE BACKING SE/ESE NEAR THE COAST DUE TO EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION. WINDS AGAIN BECOME SW/W THU EVENING/NIGHT WITH SPEEDS FALLING BELOW 10 KTS. THIS TREND OF LIGHT WINDS VEERING IN THE EVENING AND BACKING IN THE AFTERNOON (SEA BREEZE REGIME) CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 88 71 90 / 40 40 30 40 MCO 72 91 72 92 / 40 40 30 40 MLB 73 88 72 89 / 30 40 30 40 VRB 74 89 71 88 / 30 40 30 40 LEE 73 90 73 92 / 40 40 30 40 SFB 73 92 73 93 / 40 40 30 40 ORL 74 91 74 93 / 40 40 30 40 FPR 73 89 70 89 / 30 40 30 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514402 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:05 AM 29.May.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 954 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY...TD BERYL CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 30 MILES NNE OF VALDOSTA GA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A FASTER NORTHEAST MOVEMENT LATER TODAY. THROUGH TONIGHT...BAND OF RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS PERSISTENT OVER THE AREA ROUGHLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-4 THIS MORNING...AND HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCHING EASTWARD. CENTRAL FLORIDA MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE DRYING HAS WORKED INTO MID LEVELS BUT AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. SSW FLOW NEAR 20 KT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL MOVE ACTIVITY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE SOME MORNING SUNSHINE...AIDING IN DESTABILIZATION WHILE CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN THE NORTH WILL LIMIT HEATING SOMEWHAT THOSE AREAS. 09Z RAP RUN INDICATES SLIGHT ONSHORE COMPONENT DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS...GIVING THE AREA SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH COULD ALLOW ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS OR A BRIEF TORNADO TO FORM. PERSISTENCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR POORLY DRAINED AREAS. ACTIVITY GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET. JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS/ZONES BASED ON TRENDS. && .AVIATION...REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO PRECIP...ESP POINTS NEAR AND NW OF KISM-KMCO-KEVB THROUGH 16Z AND VFR SOUTHWARD. INCREASING TEMPO REDUCTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE/JUPITER INLET THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGER STORMS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST SOUTHWARD OF KTIX-KMLB-KVRB-KSUA TO JUPITET INLET. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR AREAWIDE AFTER 30/02Z. && .MARINE...WILL KEEP CAUTION HEADLINE FOR NORTHERN OFFSHORE SEGMENT WITH LATE MORNING PACKAGE. NO SIG CHANGES PLANNED. BOATERS WILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE THE COAST FROM THE MAINLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A FEW WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH STORMS. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514321 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:41 AM 29.May.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 334 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY... TD BERYL CENTERED NEAR VALDOSTA GEORGIA ATTM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A FASTER NORTHEAST MOVEMENT LATER TODAY. TODAY/TONIGHT... A BAND OF SHOWERS CONTAINING EMBEDDED STORMS HAVE REMAINED JUST NORTH OF ECFL OVERNIGHT AND THIS AREA LOOKS TO DRIFT SWD TOWARD THE I-4 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AS BERYL BEGINS TO LIFT OUT FROM THE REGION. AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE HIGH OVER N CENTRAL FL...PROMOTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEEP CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. SSW FLOW WL ALSO LEAD TO TRAINING OF CELLS INTO THE AFTERNOON. POP COVERAGE ALONG WITH THE ASCD THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS LAKE/VOLUSIA COS AND TAPERING LESS AS ONE GOES SOUTH TOWARD LAKE OKEE. WITH ECFL AREA REMAINING IN A S-SWLY FLOW THE FAVORABLE WET SEASON REGIME WL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS TO SCT SHOWERS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STORMS. SFC HEATING BY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHTNING STORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF AN ONSHORE WIND AT THE COAST WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE...CONTAINING STRONG DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF WATERSPOUT OR TORNADO AS WAS THE CASE ON MONDAY NEAR PORT SAINT LUCIE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR NUISANCE STANDING WATER IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN STRONGER STORMS. PRECIP COVERAGE ALONG WITH STORM POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH NIGHTFALL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TRANSITIONING OFFSHORE LATE. A MILD EVENING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S AND DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOWER CLOUDS MAINLY INLAND. WED-THU...BROAD STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES/HUDSON BAY REGION WILL ERODE THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE MID ATLC. ONCE THIS HAPPENS...REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER T.S. BERYL WILL LIFT UP THE ERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE NW ATLC. HOWEVER...AS THE CIRCULATION LIFTS OUT...IT WILL RIDE UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE ATLC RIDGE...KEEPING ITS AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER CUBA AND THE FL STRAITS. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WILL GENERATE A WRLY LOW/MID LVL FLOW ACRS CENTRAL FL THRU MIDWEEK...MAKING THE GOMEX THE SOURCE REGION. CONDITIONS OVER THE GOMEX ARE FAIRLY STABLE WITH MINIMAL MID LVL VORTICITY...UPR LVL DIVERGENCE. H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES LARGELY AOB 60PCT OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE BERYL`S REMNANT TROF. FURTHERMORE...THE DEEP W/SW FLOW WILL KEEP THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE PINNED EAST OF I-95...MAY SUPPRESS ITS FORMATION ALTOGETHER ON WED GIVEN THE TIGHTER PGRAD GENERATED BY THE INTERACTION OF BERYL AND THE ATLC RIDGE. WRLY FLOW REGIMES GENERATE ABV CLIMO TEMPS FOR EAST CENTRAL FL...SHOULD EASILY SEE CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS REACHED EACH DAY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT ANTICIPATED... WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN THE 30/40PCT RANGE. TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG...AFTN MAXES IN THE U80S/L90S...MRNG MINS IN THE U60S/L70S. FRI-MON... THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL ALLOW THE THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS TO DRIFT INTO THE S HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA ON FRI. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL BE HALTED BY A NEW STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DVLP FROM THE BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON THU. BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS DVLP AN EXPANSIVE CIRCULATION WITH THIS NEW SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS ACRS THE LWR MS VALLEY AND INTO THE MID WEST/GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS H100-H70 CYCLONIC FLOW EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE MS RIVER BY MIDDAY SAT. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE STORM SYSTEM AND THE ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP WRLY BREEZE ACRS CENTRAL FL. THESE WRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE THE DRIER AND LESS ENERGETIC AIRMASS OVER THE GOMEX WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY PREVENTING THE BULK OF AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM PUSHING MUCH FURTHER N THAN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THE WRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM WELL PAST THEIR CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS...LIMITED LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL KEEP TOTAL PRECIP COVERAGE AOB 50PCT FRI/SAT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AOB 30PCT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE ERN CONUS AND PLACES THE DEEP SOUTH AND MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. && .AVIATION... VFR THIS MORNING WITH SOME SHRA AND CIGS ABV VFR LEVEL N OF LEE- OMN THROUGH 15Z. EXPECT INCRSG SHRA BY MIDDAY WITH ISOLD TS. SHRA AND TS WL INCREASE IN CVG DURING THE AFTN. LIKELIHOOD OF CIG AND VSBY REDUCTIONS WITH STRONG TS GUSTS MAINLY FM 17Z-22Z WITH OCNL IFR CONDS PSBL MAINLY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN TIME FRAME THEN TAPERING OFF IN CVG AREA WIDE AFT 00Z. && .MARINE... PREVAILING CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KT DO NOT REQUIRE HEADLINES ATTM...HOWEVER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DAY AND SMALL CRAFT MAY ENCOUNTER LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES NEAR PCPN. WED-SAT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS THRU MIDWEEK AS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF BERYL LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD THEN INTO THE N ATLC. ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED OVER THE FL STRAITS AS THE ERSTWHILE BERYL RIDES UP ITS BACKSIDE WED/THU...MODERATE TO FRESH SWRLY BREEZE WED WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15KTS WED NIGHT...THEN AOB 10KTS ON THU. A NEW STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DVLP OVER THE SRN PLAINS AN LIFT INTO THE ERN CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS FROM MOVING MUCH FURTHER N THAN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. PREVAILING SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS FRI/SAT WILL BE S/SWRLY AOB 12KTS. SEAS 2-4FT EARLY WED SUBSIDING TO AOB 2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK THU...CONTG INTO THE WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 72 91 72 / 80 50 30 20 MCO 90 72 92 73 / 70 50 30 20 MLB 89 74 90 73 / 60 50 30 20 VRB 88 72 90 72 / 50 40 30 20 LEE 89 74 92 74 / 80 50 30 20 SFB 91 73 93 74 / 70 50 30 20 ORL 90 75 93 74 / 70 50 30 20 FPR 88 73 90 72 / 50 40 30 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
