|
Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tallahassee, FL (TAE) (Florida Panhandle) Selection: |
| #514599 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:02 PM 29.May.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 954 PM EDT Tue May 29 2012 .UPDATE... No major changes were made to the evening forecast. Storms in the vicinity of Pensacola have begun to diminish, or evolve further west of our local area. To the north, storms across southern TN and northern AL/GA will continue through the night. There is a chance that some of these storms will reach our northern Georgia, and Alabama counties late tonight. However, any storms that do reach our borders will have weakened significantly through the night. Broad troughing will remain in place over the southeastern part of the country for the next several days. At the surface, high pressure will build in behind Beryl (currently situated along the GA/SC border). Afternoon seabreeze circulations and weak impulses in the broad east coast trough will provide the support each afternoon for scattered thunderstorms. However, probabilities will remain low (in the 20-30% range). By the end of the week, rain chances will increase as a frontal boundary approaches from the west. Highs in the lower 90s with overnight lows in the lower 70s are expected each day. && MARINE... Cautionary (borderline SCA) level winds will continue for the next couple of hours across our eastern forecast waters. This is an area where the pressure difference is great between Beryl to the north, and high pressure in the Gulf. As Beryl moves away the gradient will weaken and winds will subside. Winds and seas will remain below headline criteria for the remainder of the period, with only slight enhancements near shore each afternoon within the afternoon seabreeze. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to hold at all terminals into the early morning hours, when chances of patchy fog will increase. A few sites may see MVFR conditions for a few hours beginning around 10Z. After the fog diminishes by 14Z, VFR conditions will prevail. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon and have mentioned VCTS at TLH and VLD to account for this potential. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 75 93 70 92 71 / 20 30 20 30 20 Panama City 78 89 76 87 74 / 20 20 10 20 20 Dothan 71 94 71 92 70 / 20 20 10 30 20 Albany 68 95 71 94 70 / 20 20 10 30 20 Valdosta 70 93 68 93 70 / 30 30 20 40 20 Cross City 76 90 70 91 70 / 30 40 20 40 20 Apalachicola 79 88 75 86 74 / 20 30 10 20 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...None. FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #514475 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:53 PM 29.May.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 348 PM EDT Tue May 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... The 18 UTC regional surface analysis showed the broad center of Tropical Depression Beryl moving northeast across south central GA. Scattered convection has been occurring across our GA zones, but has been fairly shallow. We expect the isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to gradually diminish this evening. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a trough translating eastward over the Great Lakes, which was helping to "capture" Beryl into the mid latitude westerlies and away from our region. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) The 500 MB flow will be rather zonal across much of the CONUS, with several short waves translating east through the mean flow. It doesn`t appear that any significant disturbances will affect our region, except that a long wave trough (and accompanying cold front) will approach from the west on Friday. For Wednesday and Thursday our PoP will be in the low- end chance range (20-40% range), which is near climatology. They will be mostly diurnally driven, with afternoon sea breezes and/or a weak trough left in Beryl`s wake providing the main forcing for convection. Weak wind fields should limit storm organization and/or rotation, but as always this time of year, there could be a pulse severe storm or two each afternoon with the strong daytime heating. Temperatures will be a bit above average through Thursday afternoon, with highs in the lower to mid 90s inland. .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Tuesday) The next trough is still forecast to affect the area on Friday into Saturday with a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms. The 00z model suite is not in great agreement with respect to the strength of this trough as it approaches the area. Somewhat strong 30-40 knot deep layer shear values for this time of year clip the northwest part of the forecast area late on Friday on the 29/00z GFS. It`s not entirely impossible that we may see a few stronger storms over the northwest parts of the area with this frontal passage, but confidence in any one scenario is currently low with varying model solutions. High pressure is expected to build in behind the front for the second half of the weekend with no mention of PoPs after that front through next Tuesday. && .AVIATION... MVFR conditions are still prevalent at ABY and VLD. As TD Beryl exits to the northeast should see VFR conditions at all terminals by 03Z. The next main concern will be the chance of fog dropping all terminals to MVFR around 10Z. After fog diminishes by 14Z VFR conditions will prevail with winds north-northeast around 5 kts. && .MARINE... Winds and seas were at caution levels this afternoon, and this may persists into early Wednesday. Conditions will gradually improve Wednesday and Wednesday night, and remain at typically low summertime values for the remainder of the week (except for stronger onshore breezes at the coast in the afternoon and evening hours). && .FIRE WEATHER... There are no current fire weather concerns with abundant low level moisture in place through the remainder of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 70 93 70 92 71 / 30 30 20 30 20 Panama City 76 89 76 87 74 / 30 20 10 20 20 Dothan 70 94 71 92 70 / 20 20 10 30 20 Albany 69 95 71 94 70 / 30 20 10 30 20 Valdosta 69 93 68 93 70 / 40 30 20 40 20 Cross City 71 90 70 91 70 / 40 40 20 40 20 Apalachicola 75 88 75 86 74 / 30 30 10 20 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...None. FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #514423 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:47 AM 29.May.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1137 AM EDT Tue May 29 2012 .UPDATE... Upon further review, we made some last-minute adjustments to our PoP forecast for this afternoon. Recent observations and RAP forecasts indicate the 1000-700 mb mean wind will be in the 15 to 20 KT range, which would likely pin any sea breeze to the coast. Indeed, the most recent HRRR run simulated reflectivity does not show much sea breeze convection at all. It appears that the convective band to our south (the rain band from tropical depression Beryl that dumped a foot of rain in Lafayette County) is the only significant convergence band in our region. Significant cloud cover has kept SBCAPE values low in GA. The main point of all this is that there may be few mesoscale boundaries than we though earlier this morning, and the thermodynamics may not be as favorable either. Thus we lowered our PoP and QPF forecast. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...None. FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #514408 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 29.May.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1025 AM EDT Tue May 29 2012 ...Flood threat appears to be ending in North FL... .DISCUSSION... The 12 UTC regional surface analysis showed the broad center of tropical depression Beryl near Fitzgerald, GA. Its radar presentation is much less impressive than 24 hours ago. The main convective band with Beryl has finally shifted just south of our forecast area after producing over a foot of rain in Lafayetter County (based on radar estimates). It`s unclear whether or not this band will shift back to the north. If it does, we would be concerned about more heavy rain and perhaps even isolated damaging wind gusts. (There have been a few long- lived super cells over the Gulf coastal waters in this band, where the airmass is extremely unstable and there is 25-30 KT deep layer vertical wind shear). Assuming this rain band stays just to our south, we still expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon. The consensus of Convection Allowing Models shows numerous cells developing, and the Precip Water values over most of our region are still above average. We expect several mesoscale boundaries to trigger the convection as the daytime heating reaches its peak, including a strong FL Panhandle sea breeze front (owing to the orthogonal lower tropospheric flow), and any outflow and/or convergence bands set up in the wake of Beryl. Rain chances will range from 40% over our western zones to 70% to our east. The threat for flooding outside of the Taylor-Dixie- Lafayette County areas appears lower now since the Precip Water values are beginning to drop from west to east. Temperatures will be hottest (mid 90s) to our west, and below average (mid 80s) to our east with the increased clouds. && .AVIATION... MVFR CIGS continue this morning at the DHN, ABY and VLD terminals. These conditions may linger into the afternoon especially at ABY and VLD. Otherwise, scattered convection is expected to develop this afternoon and may briefly impact each terminal. Winds will be from the west to northwest 10 to 15 kts and gusty at times. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...None. FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #514347 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:23 AM 29.May.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 415 AM EDT Tue May 29 2012 .Synopsis and Short Term)...(Now through Thursday)...Still monitoring the very slow NW Progress of slowly weakening Tropical Depression Beryl, which at 11 PM EDT on Monday Evening was located about 60 miles to the E-NE Tallahassee, and was moving NW around 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds remain at 30 mph, and the Bulk of the Convection has either contracted back inward towards the center of Beryl, or expanded into a new band of convection well off towards its south and east. This band has been impacting the I-75 Corridor from Gainesville to Ocala FL during the past few hours with locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. In our CWA, the heaviest, but fairly small band continues to dump on the order of 2 inches per hour plus over central portions of Lafayette County, where a Flood Warning remains in effect. However, calls to dispatch have not resulted in a any significant reports. For Today, Beryl is forecast to turn to the north, then accelerate to the northeast to a position close to the coast near the GA/SC border by this evening, before possibly regenerating back into a Tropical Storm off the North Carolina Coast on Wednesday Night. For our Region today, although the Bulk of the heavy rain should be over, a combination of the Proximity of Beryl (which will still be moving very slowly away from the CWA) along with some increased daytime heating, should allow for at least Sct-Nmrs showers and thunderstorms to re-develop across the region today, with the greatest rain chances to the east, where Beryl will still be able to tap into ample low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. However, unless some significant banding is able to regenerate over the SE FL Big Bend, will likely either cancel or allow the current Flood Watches and Warnings to expire this morning. On Wednesday, as Beryl pulls further away from our region, a lingering Trof of Low Pressure may serve as a focusing mechanism for at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region, but these should be mainly during the afternoon and evening hours after plenty of heating allows high temps to soar back into the 90s. By Thursday, the next Synoptic Scale feature in the form of an Upper Level Low will be diving southeastward from the Rockies into the Northern MS Valley Region, and this may help push the lingering trof near the Gulf Coast off to the North as a Warm Front. Therefore, we would expect highest Pops to the N and E, and further to the SW, another very hot day across the region with Highs possibly climbing back into the mid to upper 90s away from the coast. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through next Tuesday) The next trough is still forecast to affect the area on Friday into Saturday with a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms. The 00z model suite is not in great agreement with respect to the strength of this trough as it approaches the area. Somewhat strong 30-40 knot deep layer shear values for this time of year clip the northwest part of the forecast area late on Friday on the 29/00z GFS. It`s not entirely impossible that we may see a few stronger storms over the northwest parts of the area with this frontal passage, but confidence in any one scenario is currently low with varying model solutions. High pressure is expected to build in behind the front for the second half of the weekend with no mention of PoPs after that front through next Tuesday. && .AVIATION...Beryl will continue to impact the eastern terminals today with MVFR/IFR cigs and areas of rain. Prevailing cigs are expected to improve to VFR at KTLH during the afternoon hours as Beryl slowly moves away. KVLD may see IFR conditions linger through most of the morning with conditions improving to MVFR during the afternoon. && .MARINE...Scattered showers and thunderstorms from the departing Tropical Depression Beryl will gradually be tapering off from west to east today, with just a few lingering showers and storms due a trough of low pressure north of the Marine Area into Wednesday and Thursday. Winds and seas will be slightly elevated out of the west today through Wednesday, though no headlines are expected through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... There are no current fire weather concerns with abundant low level moisture in place through the remainder of the week. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 92 69 94 71 91 / 50 20 20 20 20 Panama City 89 75 92 75 87 / 30 30 20 20 20 Dothan 94 70 96 71 92 / 30 20 20 20 30 Albany 89 70 94 69 92 / 50 20 20 20 30 Valdosta 85 67 94 69 90 / 80 30 20 20 30 Cross City 85 71 92 71 90 / 80 30 30 20 30 Apalachicola 87 76 90 74 86 / 40 30 20 20 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...None. FL...None. GM...None. $$ |
| #514338 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:17 AM 29.May.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 415 AM EDT Tue May 29 2012 .Synopsis and Short Term)...(Now through Thursday)...Still monitoring the very slow NW Progress of slowly weakening Tropical Depression Beryl, which at 11 PM EDT on Monday Evening was located about 60 miles to the E-NE Tallahassee, and was moving NW around 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds remain at 30 mph, and the Bulk of the Convection has either contracted back inward towards the center of Beryl, or expanded into a new band of convection well off towards its south and east. This band has been impacting the I-75 Corridor from Gainesville to Ocala FL during the past few hours with locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. In our CWA, the heaviest, but fairly small band continues to dump on the order of 2 inches per hour plus over central portions of Lafayette County, where a Flood Warning remains in effect. However, calls to dispatch have not resulted in a any significant reports. For Today, Beryl is forecast to turn to the north, then accelerate to the northeast to a position close to the coast near the GA/SC border by this evening, before possibly regenerating back into a Tropical Storm off the North Carolina Coast on Wednesday Night. For our Region today, although the Bulk of the heavy rain should be over, a combination of the Proximity of Beryl (which will still be moving very slowly away from the CWA) along with some increased daytime heating, should allow for at least Sct-Nmrs showers and thunderstorms to re-develop across the region today, with the greatest rain chances to the east, where Beryl will still be able to tap into ample low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. However, unless some significant banding is able to regenerate over the SE FL Big Bend, will likely either cancel or allow the current Flood Watches and Warnings to expire this morning. On Wednesday, as Beryl pulls further away from our region, a lingering Trof of Low Pressure may serve as a focusing mechanism for at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region, but these should be mainly during the afternoon and evening hours after plenty of heating allows high temps to soar back into the 90s. By Thursday, the next Synoptic Scale feature in the form of an Upper Level Low will be diving southeastward from the Rockies into the Northern MS Valley Region, and this may help push the lingering trof near the Gulf Coast off to the North as a Warm Front. Therefore, we would expect highest Pops to the N and E, and further to the SW, another very hot day across the region with Highs possibly climbing back into the mid to upper 90s away from the coast. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through next Tuesday) The next trough is still forecast to affect the area on Friday into Saturday with a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms. The 00z model suite is not in great agreement with respect to the strength of this trough as it approaches the area. Somewhat strong 30-40 knot deep layer shear values for this time of year clip the northwest part of the forecast area late on Friday on the 29/00z GFS. It`s not entirely impossible that we may see a few stronger storms over the northwest parts of the area with this frontal passage, but confidence in any one scenario is currently low with varying model solutions. High pressure is expected to build in behind the front for the second half of the weekend with no mention of PoPs after that front through next Tuesday. && .AVIATION...Beryl will continue to impact the eastern terminals today with MVFR/IFR cigs and areas of rain. Prevailing cigs are expected to improve to VFR at KTLH during the afternoon hours as Beryl slowly moves away. KVLD may see IFR conditions linger through most of the morning with conditions improving to MVFR during the afternoon. && .MARINE...Scattered showers and thunderstorms from the departing Tropical Depression Beryl will gradually be tapering off from west to east today, with just a few lingering showers and storms due a trough of low pressure north of the Marine Area into Wednesday and Thursday. Winds and seas will be slightly elevated out of the west today through Wednesday, though no headlines are expected through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... There are no current fire weather concerns with abundant low level moisture in place through the remainder of the week. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 92 69 94 71 91 / 50 20 20 20 20 Panama City 89 75 92 75 87 / 30 30 20 20 20 Dothan 94 70 96 71 92 / 30 20 20 20 30 Albany 89 70 94 69 92 / 50 20 20 20 30 Valdosta 85 67 94 69 90 / 80 30 20 20 30 Cross City 85 71 92 71 90 / 80 30 30 20 30 Apalachicola 87 76 90 74 86 / 40 30 20 20 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...None. FL...None. GM...None. $$ |
| #514300 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:50 AM 29.May.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1244 AM EDT Tue May 29 2012 .Mesoscale Update... At 04z, the center-of-circulation of Tropical Depression Beryl was over south central Brooks County in Georgia, or about 15 miles WSW of Valdosta. Beryl has been on a westward course over the past several hours, but is beginning to show signs of slowing this motion. The NHC forecast calls for it to move north overnight, and this seems like a reasonable expectation. Steadier rain, seen on KVAX radar, has been feeding into the area on the immediate north side of the circulation this evening, into Lanier and southern Berrien Counties. Despite the appearance on radar reflectivity, observed hourly rainfall has only been around several tenths of an inch. Therefore, the threat of heavy rainfall and flooding still seems to be greatly diminished across much of the forecast area through the remainder of the overnight. One area of interest is the southeast corner of our area: Taylor, Dixie, and Lafayette Counties in the Florida Big Bend region. Although a prominent arc of deeper convection and thunderstorms extends from near Ocala to the offshore Buoy 42036, high-res models have been very consistent in redeveloping some additional showers and storms further north. There are signals that this may happen - particularly 05-08z, or in the next few hours. There is a subtle pressure trough evident in the latest surface observations extending from Beryl`s circulation center to Perry, and then curling SW towards the "C Tower" (or just offshore of Apalachicola). Indeed, the C-Tower, Apalachicola and Keaton Beach (coastal Taylor Co.) are all reporting winds from about 260-280 degrees, while winds at Cross City and Buoy 42036 are from a more S-SW direction. This implies a zone of low-level convergence roughly coincident with the pressure trough and this could be a focus for renewed thunderstorms. The RUC shows surface theta-e values increasing about 6-7K over the aforementioned trio of counties, and recent SPC Mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE recovering in the wake of the storms off to the SE. Additionally, the RUC and local WRF show a considerable expansion of curved low-level hodographs and an attendant increase in 0-1km shear by 08-09z. Increasing instability in concert with increasing low level shear could be a recipe for a marginal tornado threat with low-topped supercells that can develop in that environment. Finally, there is also the continued threat of heavy rainfall and perhaps some flooding in Lafayette, Dixie, and Taylor Counties, as previously discussed. RUC PWATs in the next few hours are forecast to be very high (around 2.2 inches or so) with a very deep warm cloud depth to 14,000 ft. Therefore, any storms that develop should be efficient rainfall producers. Dual-pol radar data from KJAX has shown recent spikes in KDP and instantaneous rain rate that would support that theory, and dual-pol 1-hr precip estimates are now exceeding legacy values. Areal Flood Warning remains in effect for awhile yet, but if more excessive rain rates become the norm, smaller and more surgical short-fused Flash Flood Warnings may become necessary. && .PREV DISCUSSION (issued at 900 PM EDT Mon May 28 2012)... Still dealing with Tropical Depression Beryl across our CWA this evening, which as of 5 PM EDT was still moving slowly NNW at 5 mph and was located about 10 miles E of Valdosta. While strong and gusty winds never really materialized across our area today, Beryl has been quite the rainmaker, especially over the SE FL Big Bend, where we were most concerned about flooding potential for today during last night`s shift. In fact, additional bands of rain continue to push SW into southern Taylor, Dixie, and Lafayette counties this evening, with a few of the outer bands still impacting portions of Bay and Gulf counties with brief heavy rain and gusty winds. However, as with most inland Tropical Cyclones, we expect these outer bands to contract back inward towards the circulation center within a few hours after sunset, so the focus for heavy rainfall is expected to remain across the SE Big Bend where an Areal Flood Warning remains in effect until early Tuesday Morning. Thus far, our heaviest measured rainfall amount has been 4.90" from a Mesonet site in West Cooks Hammock in Lafayette County. (See the MIALSRTAE product for details). However, the Bias Corrected MPE Radar Estimates from the surrounding Radars (unfortunately KTLH is still down and is not included), did show a fairly impressive band of 5.5" to 7.0" totals in and around this area with potentially more to come. Otherwise, current fcst looks on track and no major updates are anticipated this evening. AVIATION...Conditions will vary widely across the terminals through the period with the eastern terminals of KVLD, KTLH, and KABY seeing low cigs with occasional squalls associated with Beryl. Meanwhile, the western terminals of KDHN and KECP will escape most of the action with mainly VFR prevailing. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks- Colquitt-Cook-Dougherty-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes- Mitchell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth. FL...Areal Flood Warning until 6:15 AM EDT Tuesday morning for Dixie, Taylor, and Lafayette counties. Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Coastal Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Inland Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-Madison. GM...None. && $$ |
