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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Wilmington, NC (Wilmington, NC Area) Selection: |
| #515446 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:11 PM 01.Jun.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1006 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS... DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH LINGERING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1000 PM FRIDAY...PREFRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION CROSSING THE PEE DEE REGION HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER A CORRIDOR OF MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS LINE FROM ROUGHLY BENNETTESVILLE TO WILMINGTON. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHING...THIS CONVECTION MAY HOLD TOGETHER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS IT MAKES ITS WAY TO THE COAST. BUT SINCE WE EXPECT THE WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 10 PM. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...TREMENDOUSLY DIFFERENT FEEL TO THE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AS AN UNSEASONABLY ROBUST COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY COOL AIR ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PCPN-FREE WEEKEND AND AN ALMOST "CRISP" FEEL TO THE AIR SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S AND AROUND 60 AT THE COAST. MAX TEMPS TO RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH SUNDAY MILDEST. TIDAL CALCULATIONS INDICATE WE MAY NEED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAINLY FOR NUISANCE FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDES OVER THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND MIDATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME BUT THESE FEATURES WILL BE TOO MOISTURE-DEPRIVED TO YIELD ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP CHANCES. THE STRONGEST OF THESE UPPER WAVES MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT (OR MONDAY NIGHT ACCORDING TO ECMWF) AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HAVE A SURFACE REFLECTION ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IT DRIVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THIS EVENT WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE LONG TERM BUT CHANCES WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH AND THE CONTINUED RELATIVE DRYNESS WILL MINIMIZE QPF WHERE PRECIP DOES MANAGE TO OCCUR. TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO WILL TEND TO BE SMALL...A FEW DEGREES SHY BY DAY FROM WEAK CAA AND LOW HEIGHTS...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AT NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 23Z...FIRST BAND OF CONVECTION IS NOW EAST OF THE INLAND TERMINALS...AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. BASED ON THE HRRR MODEL...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN TERMINALS FROM 00-03Z. THIS CONVECTION HAS SOME DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT IT...BUT THE LOSS OF SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD KEEP THE INTENSITY DOWN...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WORST CASE. OVERNIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE CESSATION OF ANY PRECIP. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT TO THE COAST...BUT WENT WITH VCSH. SATURDAY...A NICE AVIATION DAY IN STORE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 PM FRIDAY...LATEST AREA OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST INDICATE PREFRONTAL WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 31 KT AT JMPN7 THIS EVENING. WINDS OFFSHORE HAVE REMAINED IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS AVERAGING AROUND 4 FT. MSLP GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS AFTER 06Z AND MODELS SUGGEST THE POST-FRONTAL GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK. THE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...MAINLY FOR WINDS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED BY 08-09Z. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE JUST STARTING TO IMPROVE DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT STILL ROUGH...WITH LEFT OVER SOUTHERLY SWELL ENERGY. THUS AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED EARLY. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED. NW WINDS SATURDAY WILL BACK TO W-WSW BY SUNDAY...SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED AROUND THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY MAY COME AS SOON AS MONDAY NIGHT AND ONLY BRING A SMALL SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WITH ITS PASSAGE. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE MUCH SLOWER...AS LATE AS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SOLUTION HAS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY INTRODUCE A PRECEDENT SOUTHERLY WIND AND A STRONGER NW WIND IN ITS WAKE. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE GFS MODEL SHOWING THIS SOLUTION MAKES IT FAIRLY APPEALING AND THE FORECAST WILL BE NUDGED TOWARDS IT WITHOUT EMBRACING FULLY IN CASE THE FASTER AND WEAKER SOLUTION PANS OUT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CRM |
| #515394 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:08 PM 01.Jun.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 700 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH LINGERING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA OVER THE LAST HOUR. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND WILL BE ENHANCED BY SYNOPTIC ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL COUNTIES. A SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND EXPECT IT TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 06Z. A LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS SECONDARY LINE OF STORMS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...TREMENDOUSLY DIFFERENT FEEL TO THE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AS AN UNSEASONABLY ROBUST COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY COOL AIR ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PCPN-FREE WEEKEND AND AN ALMOST "CRISP" FEEL TO THE AIR SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S AND AROUND 60 AT THE COAST. MAX TEMPS TO RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH SUNDAY MILDEST. TIDAL CALCULATIONS INDICATE WE MAY NEED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAINLY FOR NUISANCE FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDES OVER THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND MIDATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME BUT THESE FEATURES WILL BE TOO MOISTURE-DEPRIVED TO YIELD ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP CHANCES. THE STRONGEST OF THESE UPPER WAVES MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT (OR MONDAY NIGHT ACCORDING TO ECMWF) AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HAVE A SURFACE REFLECTION ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IT DRIVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THIS EVENT WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE LONG TERM BUT CHANCES WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH AND THE CONTINUED RELATIVE DRYNESS WILL MINIMIZE QPF WHERE PRECIP DOES MANAGE TO OCCUR. TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO WILL TEND TO BE SMALL...A FEW DEGREES SHY BY DAY FROM WEAK CAA AND LOW HEIGHTS...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AT NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 23Z...FIRST BAND OF CONVECTION IS NOW EAST OF THE INLAND TERMINALS...AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. BASED ON THE HRRR MODEL...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN TERMINALS FROM 00-03Z. THIS CONVECTION HAS SOME DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT IT...BUT THE LOSS OF SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD KEEP THE INTENSITY DOWN...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WORST CASE. OVERNIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE CESSATION OF ANY PRECIP. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT TO THE COAST...BUT WENT WITH VCSH. SATURDAY...A NICE AVIATION DAY IN STORE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE AT THIS HOUR. STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS LATER WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS BETWEEN 0300 AND 0600 UTC. WILL MAINTAIN THE SHORT DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING AND SCEC HEADLINE. BY MORNING EXPECT A WESTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE JUST STARTING TO IMPROVE DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT STILL ROUGH...WITH LEFT OVER SOUTHERLY SWELL ENERGY. THUS AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED EARLY. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED. NW WINDS SATURDAY WILL BACK TO W-WSW BY SUNDAY...SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED AROUND THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY MAY COME AS SOON AS MONDAY NIGHT AND ONLY BRING A SMALL SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WITH ITS PASSAGE. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE MUCH SLOWER...AS LATE AS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SOLUTION HAS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY INTRODUCE A PRECEDENT SOUTHERLY WIND AND A STRONGER NW WIND IN ITS WAKE. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE GFS MODEL SHOWING THIS SOLUTION MAKES IT FAIRLY APPEALING AND THE FORECAST WILL BE NUDGED TOWARDS IT WITHOUT EMBRACING FULLY IN CASE THE FASTER AND WEAKER SOLUTION PANS OUT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ NEAR TERM...SHK/CRM |
| #515381 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:47 PM 01.Jun.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 640 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH LINGERING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA OVER THE LAST HOUR. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND WILL BE ENHANCED BY SYNOPTIC ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL COUNTIES. A SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND EXPECT IT TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 06Z. A LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS SECONDARY LINE OF STORMS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...TREMENDOUSLY DIFFERENT FEEL TO THE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AS AN UNSEASONABLY ROBUST COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY COOL AIR ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PCPN-FREE WEEKEND AND AN ALMOST "CRISP" FEEL TO THE AIR SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S AND AROUND 60 AT THE COAST. MAX TEMPS TO RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH SUNDAY MILDEST. TIDAL CALCULATIONS INDICATE WE MAY NEED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAINLY FOR NUISANCE FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDES OVER THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND MIDATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME BUT THESE FEATURES WILL BE TOO MOISTURE-DEPRIVED TO YIELD ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP CHANCES. THE STRONGEST OF THESE UPPER WAVES MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT (OR MONDAY NIGHT ACCORDING TO ECMWF) AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HAVE A SURFACE REFLECTION ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IT DRIVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THIS EVENT WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE LONG TERM BUT CHANCES WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH AND THE CONTINUED RELATIVE DRYNESS WILL MINIMIZE QPF WHERE PRECIP DOES MANAGE TO OCCUR. TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO WILL TEND TO BE SMALL...A FEW DEGREES SHY BY DAY FROM WEAK CAA AND LOW HEIGHTS...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AT NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 19Z FRIDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. VFR WILL PREVAIL AGAIN BEGINNING LATER OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS BEING SEVERE. CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND BRIEFLY DEVELOPED FOG. FOR TIMING...FLO/LBT IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE EVENING. SOUTH WINDS AOB 10-15 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SUBSIDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. VFR WILL PREVAIL AS SHRA/TSRA WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AOB 8 KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTH WINDS AOB 11 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE AT THIS HOUR. STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS LATER WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS BETWEEN 0300 AND 0600 UTC. WILL MAINTAIN THE SHORT DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING AND SCEC HEADLINE. BY MORNING EXPECT A WESTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE JUST STARTING TO IMPROVE DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT STILL ROUGH...WITH LEFT OVER SOUTHERLY SWELL ENERGY. THUS AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED EARLY. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED. NW WINDS SATURDAY WILL BACK TO W-WSW BY SUNDAY...SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED AROUND THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY MAY COME AS SOON AS MONDAY NIGHT AND ONLY BRING A SMALL SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WITH ITS PASSAGE. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE MUCH SLOWER...AS LATE AS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SOLUTION HAS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY INTRODUCE A PRECEDENT SOUTHERLY WIND AND A STRONGER NW WIND IN ITS WAKE. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE GFS MODEL SHOWING THIS SOLUTION MAKES IT FAIRLY APPEALING AND THE FORECAST WILL BE NUDGED TOWARDS IT WITHOUT EMBRACING FULLY IN CASE THE FASTER AND WEAKER SOLUTION PANS OUT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ NEAR TERM...SHK/CRM |
| #515306 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:14 PM 01.Jun.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 334 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH LINGERING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THE WATCH AND THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH THAT IS FIRING UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA. STILL A COMPLEX FORECAST AS MORE CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT. HAVE APPLIED A NEAR TERM STRATEGY OF CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WESTERN COUNTIES THEN A VERY BRIEF LULL INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING AND EXTENDING TO THE EAST LATER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...TREMENDOUSLY DIFFERENT FEEL TO THE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AS AN UNSEASONABLY ROBUST COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY COOL AIR ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PCPN-FREE WEEKEND AND AN ALMOST "CRISP" FEEL TO THE AIR SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S AND AROUND 60 AT THE COAST. MAX TEMPS TO RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH SUNDAY MILDEST. TIDAL CALCULATIONS INDICATE WE MAY NEED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAINLY FOR NUISANCE FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDES OVER THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND MIDATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME BUT THESE FEATURES WILL BE TOO MOISTURE-DEPRIVED TO YIELD ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP CHANCES. THE STRONGEST OF THESE UPPER WAVES MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT (OR MONDAY NIGHT ACCORDING TO ECMWF) AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HAVE A SURFACE REFLECTION ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IT DRIVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THIS EVENT WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE LONG TERM BUT CHANCES WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH AND THE CONTINUED RELATIVE DRYNESS WILL MINIMIZE QPF WHERE PRECIP DOES MANAGE TO OCCUR. TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO WILL TEND TO BE SMALL...A FEW DEGREES SHY BY DAY FROM WEAK CAA AND LOW HEIGHTS...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AT NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 19Z FRIDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. VFR WILL PREVAIL AGAIN BEGINNING LATER OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS BEING SEVERE. CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND BRIEFLY DEVELOPED FOG. FOR TIMING...FLO/LBT IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE EVENING. SOUTH WINDS AOB 10-15 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SUBSIDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. VFR WILL PREVAIL AS SHRA/TSRA WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AOB 8 KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTH WINDS AOB 11 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE AT THIS HOUR. STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS LATER WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS BETWEEN 0300 AND 0600 UTC. WILL MAINTAIN THE SHORT DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING AND SCEC HEADLINE. BY MORNING EXPECT A WESTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE JUST STARTING TO IMPROVE DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT STILL ROUGH...WITH LEFT OVER SOUTHERLY SWELL ENERGY. THUS AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED EARLY. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED. NW WINDS SATURDAY WILL BACK TO W-WSW BY SUNDAY...SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED AROUND THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY MAY COME AS SOON AS MONDAY NIGHT AND ONLY BRING A SMALL SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WITH ITS PASSAGE. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE MUCH SLOWER...AS LATE AS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SOLUTION HAS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY INTRODUCE A PRECEDENT SOUTHERLY WIND AND A STRONGER NW WIND IN ITS WAKE. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE GFS MODEL SHOWING THIS SOLUTION MAKES IT FAIRLY APPEALING AND THE FORECAST WILL BE NUDGED TOWARDS IT WITHOUT EMBRACING FULLY IN CASE THE FASTER AND WEAKER SOLUTION PANS OUT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ |
| #515279 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:35 PM 01.Jun.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 334 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH LINGERING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THE WATCH AND THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH THAT IS FIRING UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA. STILL A COMPLEX FORECAST AS MORE CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT. HAVE APPLIED A NEAR TERM STRATEGY OF CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WESTERN COUNTIES THEN A VERY BRIEF LULL INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING AND EXTENDING TO THE EAST LATER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...TREMENDOUSLY DIFFERENT FEEL TO THE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AS AN UNSEASONABLY ROBUST COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY COOL AIR ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PCPN-FREE WEEKEND AND AN ALMOST "CRISP" FEEL TO THE AIR WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...AROUND 60 AT THE COAST. MAX TEMPS TO RUN BELOW NORMAL...SUNDAY MILDEST. TIDAL CALCULATIONS INDICATE WE MAY NEED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAINLY FOR NUISANCE FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDES OVER THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND MIDATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME BUT THESE FEATURES WILL BE TOO MOISTURE-DEPRIVED TO YIELD ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP CHANCES. THE STRONGEST OF THESE UPPER WAVES MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT (OR MONDAY NIGHT ACCORDING TO ECMWF) AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HAVE A SURFACE REFLECTION ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IT DRIVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THIS EVENT WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE LONG TERM BUT CHANCES WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH AND THE CONTINUED RELATIVE DRYNESS WILL MINIMIZE QPF WHERE PRECIP DOES MANAGE TO OCCUR. TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO WILL TEND TO BE SMALL...A FEW DEGREES SHY BY DAY FROM WEAK CAA AND LOW HEIGHTS...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AT NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 19Z FRIDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. VFR WILL PREVAIL AGAIN BEGINNING LATER OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS BEING SEVERE. CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND BRIEFLY DEVELOPED FOG. FOR TIMING...FLO/LBT IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE EVENING. SOUTH WINDS AOB 10-15 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SUBSIDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. VFR WILL PREVAIL AS SHRA/TSRA WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AOB 8 KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTH WINDS AOB 11 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE AT THIS HOUR. STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS LATER WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS BETWEEN 0300 AND 0600 UTC. WILL MAINTAIN THE SHORT DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING AND SCEC HEADLINE. BY MORNING EXPECT A WESTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE JUST STARTING TO IMPROVE DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT STILL ROUGH...WITH LEFT OVER SOUTHERLY SWELL ENERGY. THUS AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED EARLY. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED. NW WINDS SATURDAY WILL BACK TO W-WSW BY SUNDAY...SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED AROUND THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY MAY COME AS SOON AS MONDAY NIGHT AND ONLY BRING A SMALL SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WITH ITS PASSAGE. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE MUCH SLOWER...AS LATE AS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SOLUTION HAS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY INTRODUCE A PRECEDENT SOUTHERLY WIND AND A STRONGER NW WIND IN ITS WAKE. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE GFS MODEL SHOWING THIS SOLUTION MAKES IT FAIRLY APPEALING AND THE FORECAST WILL BE NUDGED TOWARDS IT WITHOUT EMBRACING FULLY IN CASE THE FASTER AND WEAKER SOLUTION PANS OUT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ |
| #515231 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:32 PM 01.Jun.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 125 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MILD WEATHER WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1:25 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO FIRE ACROSS THE AREA WITH NO ACTIVITY AS OF YET ALTHOUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME HEALTHY CELLS TO OUR NORTH AND WELL TO THE WEST. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS LCL TO LFC MEAN RH REMAINS LOW WHICH IS LIKELY THE REASON FOR THE SLOW START. THE LATEST GFS/MAV HAS TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH POPS. MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UPDATE WITH LOWER POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS I WILL ESSENTIALLY NOWCAST WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL THIS EVENING TO OVERNIGHT. NO COLD AIR ADVECTION DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN UP JUST ENOUGH TO GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BUT THE 5H TROUGH HANGS BACK...RESULTING IN WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION UNDER WEAK NEUTRAL TO WARM ADVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF WARM BUT DRY MID LEVEL AIR. SO OTHER THAN SOME FLAT AFTERNOON CU SAT SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY. 5H TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING SUN. COMBINATION OF DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBTLE HEIGHT BUILDS AS 5H RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY SUN. AS WITH SAT THERE MAY BE SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS SUN...THOUGH WITH MORE VERTICAL EXTENT COMPARED TO SAT. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN MCS DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT. LATEST GFS KEEPS THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FARTHER SOUTH/WEST THAN THE GFS AND WEAKER. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM BUT WEAKER STILL. AT THIS POINT WHETHER OR NOT THE FEATURE DEVELOPS SEEMS INCONSEQUENTIAL AS ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS IT OUT OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL END UP NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO...LOW TO MID 80S DURING THE DAY AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...OMEGA BLOCK MORE OR LESS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD THE WESTERN 5H LOW BEING REPLACED BY A SECOND DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE SENT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. MON NIGHT INTO TUE A COLD FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...PROVIDING WHAT MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND LOCATION OF THE FEATURES WILL NOT CARRY A POP HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE BUT WILL HAVE A POP FOR EACH AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. && AS OF 18Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. VFR WILL PREVAIL AGAIN BEGINNING LATER OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS BEING SEVERE. CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND BRIEFLY DEVELOPED FOG. FOR TIMING...FLO/LBT IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE EVENING. SOUTH WINDS AOB 10-15 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SUBSIDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. VFR WILL PREVAIL AS SHRA/TSRA WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AOB 8 KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTH WINDS AOB 11 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1:30 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE AT THIS HOUR. STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS LATER WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS BETWEEN 0300 AND 0600 UTC. WILL MAINTAIN THE SHORT DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING. BY MORNING EXPECT A WESTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY TUE MORNING WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. FAIRLY UNIFORM GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT WITH SEAS FALLING FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY SAT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY SUN MORNING. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KT WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SPEEDS MAY TOUCH 15 KT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT FOR A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE WITH GRADIENT SUPPORTIVE OF SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SLOWER TO VEER WEST TO NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SEAS LOWER THAN EARLIER FORECAST...2 TO 3 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH AN INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ |
| #515212 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 01.Jun.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1041 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MILD WEATHER WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10:30 AM FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS STARTING TO BUBBLE ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM REMAINS ON THE POTENT SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT NOW ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. 1200 UTC NAM HAS COME IN WITH A BUILDING CONSENSUS ALONG WITH THE 0600 UTC GFS AND LATEST HRRR. THIS SHOWS THE STRONGLY FORCED FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH SEA BREEZE AND ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON WHILE MAINTAINING THE CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY VALUES FROM WEST TO EAST BEYOND 0000 UTC. THE LATEST DAY ONE OUTLOOK FROM SPC MAINTAINS THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES. IT APPEARS THE THREAT WITH OUR AREA WILL BE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BUT THE 5H TROUGH HANGS BACK...RESULTING IN WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION UNDER WEAK NEUTRAL TO WARM ADVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF WARM BUT DRY MID LEVEL AIR. SO OTHER THAN SOME FLAT AFTERNOON CU SAT SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY. 5H TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING SUN. COMBINATION OF DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBTLE HEIGHT BUILDS AS 5H RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY SUN. AS WITH SAT THERE MAY BE SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS SUN...THOUGH WITH MORE VERTICAL EXTENT COMPARED TO SAT. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN MCS DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT. LATEST GFS KEEPS THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FARTHER SOUTH/WEST THAN THE GFS AND WEAKER. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM BUT WEAKER STILL. AT THIS POINT WHETHER OR NOT THE FEATURE DEVELOPS SEEMS INCONSEQUENTIAL AS ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS IT OUT OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL END UP NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO...LOW TO MID 80S DURING THE DAY AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...OMEGA BLOCK MORE OR LESS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD THE WESTERN 5H LOW BEING REPLACED BY A SECOND DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE SENT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. MON NIGHT INTO TUE A COLD FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...PROVIDING WHAT MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND LOCATION OF THE FEATURES WILL NOT CARRY A POP HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE BUT WILL HAVE A POP FOR EACH AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...IFR/MVFR AT INLAND SITES WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ALLOWING FOR ALL TAF SITES TO BECOME VFR. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. FOG/STRATUS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AT THE INLAND SITES THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS BEING SEVERE. CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND BRIEFLY DEVELOPED FOG. FOR TIMING...FLO/LBT IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE EVENING. BY THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...VFR WILL PREVAIL AS SHRA/TSRA WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AOB 8 KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG AT THE TERMINALS LATER OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10:30 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST. BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO A SHORT LIVED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY TUE MORNING WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. FAIRLY UNIFORM GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT WITH SEAS FALLING FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY SAT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY SUN MORNING. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KT WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SPEEDS MAY TOUCH 15 KT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT FOR A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE WITH GRADIENT SUPPORTIVE OF SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SLOWER TO VEER WEST TO NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SEAS LOWER THAN EARLIER FORECAST...2 TO 3 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH AN INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ |
| #515197 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:32 AM 01.Jun.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 826 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH LINGERING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6:30 AM FRIDAY...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MAINLY DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ROBESON COUNTY...BUT THIS SHOULD EXIT WITHIN THE HOUR. CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST HAS SUBSIDED. NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST...AS DESCRIBED IN RELEVANT PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW: FOR TODAY...DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE SHOWS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY A LINE OF CONVECTION...WHICH WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND EXTENT AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS WILL INCREASE SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE EVENT EVOLVES. IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE WARNINGS ISSUED...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING FROM DAMAGING WINDS. SPC KEEPS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY...BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 80S MOST SPOTS. MINIMUMS A BIT MORE TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING FROPA. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. INLAND COUNTIES COULD SEE LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK...WITH UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BUT THE 5H TROUGH HANGS BACK...RESULTING IN WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION UNDER WEAK NEUTRAL TO WARM ADVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF WARM BUT DRY MID LEVEL AIR. SO OTHER THAN SOME FLAT AFTERNOON CU SAT SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY. 5H TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING SUN. COMBINATION OF DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBTLE HEIGHT BUILDS AS 5H RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY SUN. AS WITH SAT THERE MAY BE SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS SUN...THOUGH WITH MORE VERTICAL EXTENT COMPARED TO SAT. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN MCS DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT. LATEST GFS KEEPS THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FARTHER SOUTH/WEST THAN THE GFS AND WEAKER. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM BUT WEAKER STILL. AT THIS POINT WHETHER OR NOT THE FEATURE DEVELOPS SEEMS INCONSEQUENTIAL AS ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS IT OUT OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL END UP NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO...LOW TO MID 80S DURING THE DAY AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...OMEGA BLOCK MORE OR LESS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD THE WESTERN 5H LOW BEING REPLACED BY A SECOND DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE SENT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. MON NIGHT INTO TUE A COLD FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...PROVIDING WHAT MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND LOCATION OF THE FEATURES WILL NOT CARRY A POP HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE BUT WILL HAVE A POP FOR EACH AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...IFR/MVFR AT INLAND SITES WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ALLOWING FOR ALL TAF SITES TO BECOME VFR. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. FOG/STRATUS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AT THE INLAND SITES THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS BEING SEVERE. CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND BRIEFLY DEVELOPED FOG. FOR TIMING...FLO/LBT IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE EVENING. BY THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...VFR WILL PREVAIL AS SHRA/TSRA WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AOB 8 KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG AT THE TERMINALS LATER OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6:30 AM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FT. NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AS DESCRIBED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW: STEADILY INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN IMPENDING COLD FRONT. PRESENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASING FROM PRESENT 3 FT RANGE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVER OUR NC WATERS AND 3 TO 5 FT OVER OUR SC WATERS THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST BY DAWN. HAVE RAISED A SCA FOR OUR NC WATERS...WITH SCEC HEADLINES FOR OUR SC WATERS FOR TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING BOATERS COULD ALSO SEE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY TUE MORNING WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. FAIRLY UNIFORM GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT WITH SEAS FALLING FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY SAT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY SUN MORNING. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KT WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SPEEDS MAY TOUCH 15 KT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT FOR A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE WITH GRADIENT SUPPORTIVE OF SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SLOWER TO VEER WEST TO NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SEAS LOWER THAN EARLIER FORECAST...2 TO 3 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH AN INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ |
| #515185 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:47 AM 01.Jun.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 646 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH LINGERING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6:30 AM FRIDAY...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MAINLY DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ROBESON COUNTY...BUT THIS SHOULD EXIT WITHIN THE HOUR. CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST HAS SUBSIDED. NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST...AS DESCRIBED IN RELEVANT PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW: FOR TODAY...DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE SHOWS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY A LINE OF CONVECTION...WHICH WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND EXTENT AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS WILL INCREASE SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE EVENT EVOLVES. IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE WARNINGS ISSUED...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING FROM DAMAGING WINDS. SPC KEEPS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY...BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 80S MOST SPOTS. MINIMUMS A BIT MORE TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING FROPA. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. INLAND COUNTIES COULD SEE LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK...WITH UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BUT THE 5H TROUGH HANGS BACK...RESULTING IN WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION UNDER WEAK NEUTRAL TO WARM ADVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF WARM BUT DRY MID LEVEL AIR. SO OTHER THAN SOME FLAT AFTERNOON CU SAT SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY. 5H TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING SUN. COMBINATION OF DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBTLE HEIGHT BUILDS AS 5H RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY SUN. AS WITH SAT THERE MAY BE SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS SUN...THOUGH WITH MORE VERTICAL EXTENT COMPARED TO SAT. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN MCS DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT. LATEST GFS KEEPS THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FARTHER SOUTH/WEST THAN THE GFS AND WEAKER. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM BUT WEAKER STILL. AT THIS POINT WHETHER OR NOT THE FEATURE DEVELOPS SEEMS INCONSEQUENTIAL AS ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS IT OUT OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL END UP NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO...LOW TO MID 80S DURING THE DAY AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...OMEGA BLOCK MORE OR LESS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD THE WESTERN 5H LOW BEING REPLACED BY A SECOND DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE SENT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. MON NIGHT INTO TUE A COLD FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...PROVIDING WHAT MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND LOCATION OF THE FEATURES WILL NOT CARRY A POP HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE BUT WILL HAVE A POP FOR EACH AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY TO PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITIES IN BR AN/OR IFR STRATUS BY 08Z. HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL OCCUR SINCE WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE 20-25 KNOTS BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 1K. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO IFR CEILINGS IN TAFS FOR ALL SITES 10-14Z. IN ADDITION...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A SHOWER COULD AFFECT MYR/CRE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE...STRATUS WILL LIFT INTO AN MVFR LAYER THEN LIFT FURTHER TO VFR BY MID MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 10-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AROUND 15Z. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER OF CONVECTION AFFECTING FLO/LBT IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE TAF SITES FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6:30 AM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FT. NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AS DESCRIBED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW: STEADILY INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN IMPENDING COLD FRONT. PRESENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASING FROM PRESENT 3 FT RANGE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVER OUR NC WATERS AND 3 TO 5 FT OVER OUR SC WATERS THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST BY DAWN. HAVE RAISED A SCA FOR OUR NC WATERS...WITH SCEC HEADLINES FOR OUR SC WATERS FOR TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING BOATERS COULD ALSO SEE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY TUE MORNING WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. FAIRLY UNIFORM GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT WITH SEAS FALLING FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY SAT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY SUN MORNING. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KT WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SPEEDS MAY TOUCH 15 KT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT FOR A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE WITH GRADIENT SUPPORTIVE OF SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SLOWER TO VEER WEST TO NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SEAS LOWER THAN EARLIER FORECAST...2 TO 3 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH AN INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS... |
| #515146 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:39 AM 01.Jun.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH LINGERING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...INTERESTING MORNING...KTLX RADAR DOWN DUE TO ONGOING DUAL-POL INSTALLATION AND WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION COMING AT US FROM TWO DIRECTIONS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS APPROACHING OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF FLORENCE AND DARLINGTON. MEANWHILE...FURTHER SOUTH...ANOTHER WEAKER CLUSTER ON CONVECTION IS APPROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF GEORGETOWN COUNTY. GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THESE FEATURES TOO WELL. PROJECTION OF THEIR MOTION OUT IN TIME HAS THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION SKIRTING THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY ALSO AFFECTING HORRY AND MARLBORO COUNTIES. GENERAL INTENSITY TRENDS BASED ON SURROUNDING RADARS...IR SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS A STEADY WEAKENING. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THOUGH. FOR TODAY...DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE SHOWS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY A LINE OF CONVECTION...WHICH WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND EXTENT AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS WILL INCREASE SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE EVENT EVOLVES. IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE WARNINGS ISSUED...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING FROM DAMAGING WINDS. SPC KEEPS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY...BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 80S MOST SPOTS. MINIMUMS A BIT MORE TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING FROPA. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. INLAND COUNTIES COULD SEE LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK...WITH UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BUT THE 5H TROUGH HANGS BACK...RESULTING IN WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION UNDER WEAK NEUTRAL TO WARM ADVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF WARM BUT DRY MID LEVEL AIR. SO OTHER THAN SOME FLAT AFTERNOON CU SAT SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY. 5H TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING SUN. COMBINATION OF DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBTLE HEIGHT BUILDS AS 5H RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY SUN. AS WITH SAT THERE MAY BE SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS SUN...THOUGH WITH MORE VERTICAL EXTENT COMPARED TO SAT. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN MCS DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT. LATEST GFS KEEPS THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FARTHER SOUTH/WEST THAN THE GFS AND WEAKER. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM BUT WEAKER STILL. AT THIS POINT WHETHER OR NOT THE FEATURE DEVELOPS SEEMS INCONSEQUENTIAL AS ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS IT OUT OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL END UP NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO...LOW TO MID 80S DURING THE DAY AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...OMEGA BLOCK MORE OR LESS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD THE WESTERN 5H LOW BEING REPLACED BY A SECOND DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE SENT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. MON NIGHT INTO TUE A COLD FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...PROVIDING WHAT MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND LOCATION OF THE FEATURES WILL NOT CARRY A POP HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE BUT WILL HAVE A POP FOR EACH AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY TO PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITIES IN BR AN/OR IFR STRATUS BY 08Z. HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL OCCUR SINCE WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE 20-25 KNOTS BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 1K. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO IFR CEILINGS IN TAFS FOR ALL SITES 10-14Z. IN ADDITION...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A SHOWER COULD AFFECT MYR/CRE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE...STRATUS WILL LIFT INTO AN MVFR LAYER THEN LIFT FURTHER TO VFR BY MID MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 10-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AROUND 15Z. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER OF CONVECTION AFFECTING FLO/LBT IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE TAF SITES FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...STEADILY INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN IMPENDING COLD FRONT. PRESENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASING FROM PRESENT 3 FT RANGE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVER OUR NC WATERS AND 3 TO 5 FT OVER OUR SC WATERS THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST BY DAWN. HAVE RAISED A SCA FOR OUR NC WATERS...WITH SCEC HEADLINES FOR OUR SC WATERS FOR TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING BOATERS COULD ALSO SEE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY TUE MORNING WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. FAIRLY UNIFORM GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT WITH SEAS FALLING FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY SAT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY SUN MORNING. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KT WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SPEEDS MAY TOUCH 15 KT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT FOR A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE WITH GRADIENT SUPPORTIVE OF SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SLOWER TO VEER WEST TO NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SEAS LOWER THAN EARLIER FORECAST...2 TO 3 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH AN INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ |
| #515131 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 AM 01.Jun.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 146 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH LINGERING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTH OF THE FA HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED ALONG WITH THE CU THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MAINLY WELL INLAND. FORECAST INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR NE TO PARTLY CLOUDY WESTERN COUNTIES. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER PRESENTLY MOVING INTO SC WEST OF CAE WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT. DID CARRY A 10 POP FOR THE OVERNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN TIER JUST IN CASE A CELL OR TWO MAKE IT IN THERE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 LOOK ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS IN THE CARDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAVERSE THE REGION. SPC MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE NEARLY THE COLUMN MOISTURE WE SAW RECENTLY WITH BERYL BUT BECAUSE OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS...BROAD ASCENT AND POTENTIALLY GOOD SURFACE HEATING...TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF TORRENTIAL RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TIMING WISE A SQUALL LINE OR BROKEN LINE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY ENCROACH OUR WRN ZONES IN THE MIDDLE OR LATE AFTN...TRANSLATING EAST TO THE COAST IN THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING...AND THE START OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE MUCH IMPROVED COMPARED TO FRIDAY AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTER INTO THE REGION. WITH ENOUGH BREAKS IN SUNSHINE SOME OF OUR INTERIOR LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH 90...BUT SUSPECT DEVELOPING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NOT CLEAR CUT AT ALL DUE TO TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. HAVE OPTED FOR MILDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS AND WINDS...AND COOL AIR ADVECTION HELD BACK WEST. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...LOW TO MID 80S. UNSEASONABLY COOL MORNING LOWS EARLY SUNDAY UPPER 50S INLAND AND COLD SPOTS AND LOW TO MID 60S AT THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING SUNDAY AT THE SAME TIME THAT SUBTLE THICKNESS INCREASE OCCURS ALOFT. EVEN THOUGH THICKNESSES RISE SUNDAY...GENERAL TROUGHINESS PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DUE TO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW ACROSS SE CANADA/NEW ENGLAND. STILL...A SLIGHT CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 600MB COMBINED WITH DRY NW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL PREVENT ANY CONVECTION ON SUNDAY...AND TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND CLIMO WITH A LOT OF SUNSHINE. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO JUST BELOW CLIMO...A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE 60. FORECAST GETS MORE COMPLEX BEGINNING MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES ONLY VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE CONTINUALLY SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST...KEEPING THE EASTERN CAROLINAS IN NW FLOW WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING HEIGHTS. GUIDANCE HINTS AT AN MCS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT IT MAY BE SUPPRESSED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WILL CARRY SCHC POP MONDAY...BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH. A STRONGER IMPULSE PUSHES DOWN AROUND THE LOW TUESDAY...AND THIS WILL DRIVE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS GETTING QUITE LATE IN THE SEASON FOR SUCH A SCENARIO...BUT GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT SO WILL SHOW WINDS TURNING TO NORTH WITH SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK UPPER IMPULSES TUE/WED WILL AGAIN CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH AFTN...BUT IN A RATHER LOW THETA-E AIRMASS DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD OR STRONG TSTMS EACH AFTN. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND CLIMO EACH DAY. BY THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST ALONG THE REMNANT BOUNDARY...OLD BACK DOOR FRONT. THIS COULD BRING ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES BY THURSDAY BUT WILL KEEP SCHC FOR NOW BEING SO FAR OUT...WITH TEMPS CONTINUING RIGHT AROUND CLIMO. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY TO PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITIES IN BR AN/OR IFR STRATUS BY 08Z. HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL OCCUR SINCE WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE 20-25 KNOTS BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 1K. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO IFR CEILINGS IN TAFS FOR ALL SITES 10-14Z. IN ADDITION...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A SHOWER COULD AFFECT MYR/CRE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE...STRATUS WILL LIFT INTO AN MVFR LAYER THEN LIFT FURTHER TO VFR BY MID MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 10-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AROUND 15Z. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER OF CONVECTION AFFECTING FLO/LBT IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE TAF SITES FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...S WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING S WINDS FRIDAY AND LIKEWISE BUILDING SEAS. WE MAY NEED A "EXERCISE CAUTION" STATEMENT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING FOR 5 FOOT SEAS AWAY FROM THE INSHORE WATERS...AND WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY. ANY SLIGHT UNDERESTIMATION OF WIND SPEED IN THE MODELS COULD RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AFTN OR EVENING. EVEN IF ADVISORIES ARE POSTED LATE FRIDAY...WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE RAPIDLY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE AS THE NW WINDS FLATTEN OUT THE OCEAN CLOSE TO SHORE. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...DIFFUSE PRESSURE PATTERN ON NORTH SIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY A LOW AMPLITUDE GROUND SWELL KEEPS SEAS ONLY 1-3 FT THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY MORNING...TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST...WITH INCREASING SPEEDS UP TO 10-15 KTS LATE TUESDAY. THIS HELPS DRIVE SEAS UP TO 3-4 FT BY LATE TUESDAY...WITH THE WAVE SPECTRUM CONSISTING OF PRIMARILY NE WIND CHOP. HOWEVER...THE SHADOWED REGION SW OF FRYING PAN SHOALS WILL REMAIN ONLY 1-3 FT THROUGH TUESDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
