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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Miami, FL (MFL) (South Florida) Selection: |
| #515419 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:05 PM 01.Jun.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 756 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 .UPDATE...SOME MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED FOR THE EVENING UPDATES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND HELPING TO LIFT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IN TURN IS AIDING IN SHIFTING THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA. IN ADDITION, THIS IS COMING IN LINE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND FOR THESE REASONS IT APPEARS THE RISK OF FLOODING RAINS HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED. THE HRRR WHICH HAS ACTUALLY BEEN OVER ZEALOUS WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY FORECASTS THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE DISCUSSION. SO FOR ALL OF THESE REASONS, PLAN TO LOWER POPS TO ONLY SCT LEVELS FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND CANCEL THE FFA FOR ALL OF S FL. KOB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012/ AVIATION...TSRA MOVG OFSHR ATTM AND VCSH THRU 02Z WITH PSBL REDVLPMNT TOWARD 12Z WITH VCTS AFT 16Z. OTRW...VFR E COAST FOR THE MOST PART. SFC WNDS BCMG SW GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND PERSISTING. ATTM GUIDANCE INDICATES NO E COAST SEA BRZE SATURDAY. AT KAPF....VCSH OVRNITE INTO SATURDAY AND PSBL MVFR CIGS BUT NOT IN TAFS ATTM. SFC WNDS SW 10 KTS OR LESS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND THE EASTERN GULF WITH A FEW LEAD SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE SUB-TROPICAL JET LIFTING NE ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF IT. UPPER HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 2 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE HAS GENERATED A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AROUND AND JUST WEST OF THE KEYS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION BECOMES CONCENTRATED. IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS INDICATING A FEW BREAKS IN THE COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. IF SO, A FEW STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS. DESPITE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT WERE NOTED FROM EARLIER MODEL SOLUTIONS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE LATEST MODEL CYCLE APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND INDICATES THE DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL INDICATE A GENERAL DRYING PATTERN OR TRANSITION PERIOD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS DRY AIR COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING CONDITIONS COME SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF 00Z RUN STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THIS DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME AND CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A DECENT SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA SATURDAY. CONSIDERING SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO THE DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA...WE WILL NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL CHANCES UP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF LINE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM PALM BEACH COUNTY TO NAPLES. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 90 THROUGH THIS TIME WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND AND ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. LONG TERM (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)... A LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY MONDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH THE WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPS OVER EASTERN AREAS. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAILY SEA BREEZE FORMATION WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MARINE... LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PERIODS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS CONTINUING. AVIATION... AN AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...AND AFFECT ALL OF THE TAF SITES IN THE CWA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE VCTS FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 02Z. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH THE CWA FROM THE WEST. SO WILL CONTINUE THE VCSH AFTER 02Z FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES OF THE CWA. THE VIS AND CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COULD FALL DOWN INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE RAINS AND THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 2Z. FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #515420 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:05 PM 01.Jun.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 755 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 .UPDATE...SOME MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED FOR THE EVENING UPDATES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND HELPING TO LIFT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IN TURN IS AIDING IN SHIFTING THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA. IN ADDITION, THIS IS COMING IN LINE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND FOR THESE REASONS IT APPEARS THE RISK OF FLOODING RAINS HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED. THE HRRR WHICH HAS ACTUALLY BEEN OVER ZEALOUS WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY FORECASTS THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE DISCUSSION. SO FOR ALL OF THESE REASONS, PLAN TO LOWER POPS TO ONLY SCT LEVELS FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND CANCEL THE FFA FOR ALL OF S FL. KOB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012/ AVIATION...TSRA MOVG OFSHR ATTM AND VCSH THRU 02Z WITH PSBL REDVLPMNT TOWARD 12Z WITH VCTS AFT 16Z. OTRW...VFR E COAST FOR THE MOST PART. SFC WNDS BCMG SW GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND PERSISTING. ATTM GUIDANCE INDICATES NO E COAST SEA BRZE SATURDAY. AT KAPF....VCSH OVRNITE INTO SATURDAY AND PSBL MVFR CIGS BUT NOT IN TAFS ATTM. SFC WNDS SW 10 KTS OR LESS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND THE EASTERN GULF WITH A FEW LEAD SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE SUB-TROPICAL JET LIFTING NE ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF IT. UPPER HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 2 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE HAS GENERATED A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AROUND AND JUST WEST OF THE KEYS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION BECOMES CONCENTRATED. IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS INDICATING A FEW BREAKS IN THE COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. IF SO, A FEW STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS. DESPITE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT WERE NOTED FROM EARLIER MODEL SOLUTIONS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE LATEST MODEL CYCLE APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND INDICATES THE DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL INDICATE A GENERAL DRYING PATTERN OR TRANSITION PERIOD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS DRY AIR COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING CONDITIONS COME SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF 00Z RUN STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THIS DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME AND CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A DECENT SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA SATURDAY. CONSIDERING SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO THE DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA...WE WILL NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL CHANCES UP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF LINE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM PALM BEACH COUNTY TO NAPLES. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 90 THROUGH THIS TIME WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND AND ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. LONG TERM (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)... A LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY MONDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH THE WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPS OVER EASTERN AREAS. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAILY SEA BREEZE FORMATION WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MARINE... LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PERIODS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS CONTINUING. AVIATION... AN AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...AND AFFECT ALL OF THE TAF SITES IN THE CWA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE VCTS FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 02Z. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH THE CWA FROM THE WEST. SO WILL CONTINUE THE VCSH AFTER 02Z FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES OF THE CWA. THE VIS AND CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COULD FALL DOWN INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE RAINS AND THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 2Z. FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BROWARD- COASTAL COLLIER-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND MIAMI DADE-INLAND PALM BEACH-MAINLAND MONROE- METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM BEACH. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #515375 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:32 PM 01.Jun.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 626 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 .AVIATION...TSRA MOVG OFSHR ATTM AND VCSH THRU 02Z WITH PSBL REDVLPMNT TOWARD 12Z WITH VCTS AFT 16Z. OTRW...VFR E COAST FOR THE MOST PART. SFC WNDS BCMG SW GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND PERSISTING. ATTM GUIDANCE INDICATES NO E COAST SEA BRZE SATURDAY. AT KAPF....VCSH OVRNITE INTO SATURDAY AND PSBL MVFR CIGS BUT NOT IN TAFS ATTM. SFC WNDS SW 10 KTS OR LESS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND THE EASTERN GULF WITH A FEW LEAD SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE SUB-TROPICAL JET LIFTING NE ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF IT. UPPER HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 2 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE HAS GENERATED A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AROUND AND JUST WEST OF THE KEYS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION BECOMES CONCENTRATED. IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS INDICATING A FEW BREAKS IN THE COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. IF SO, A FEW STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS. DESPITE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT WERE NOTED FROM EARLIER MODEL SOLUTIONS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE LATEST MODEL CYCLE APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND INDICATES THE DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL INDICATE A GENERAL DRYING PATTERN OR TRANSITION PERIOD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS DRY AIR COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING CONDITIONS COME SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF 00Z RUN STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THIS DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME AND CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A DECENT SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA SATURDAY. CONSIDERING SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO THE DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA...WE WILL NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL CHANCES UP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF LINE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM PALM BEACH COUNTY TO NAPLES. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 90 THROUGH THIS TIME WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND AND ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. LONG TERM (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)... A LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY MONDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH THE WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPS OVER EASTERN AREAS. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAILY SEA BREEZE FORMATION WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MARINE... LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PERIODS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS CONTINUING. AVIATION... AN AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...AND AFFECT ALL OF THE TAF SITES IN THE CWA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE VCTS FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 02Z. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH THE CWA FROM THE WEST. SO WILL CONTINUE THE VCSH AFTER 02Z FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES OF THE CWA. THE VIS AND CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COULD FALL DOWN INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE RAINS AND THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 2Z. FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 73 86 74 88 / 60 60 20 10 FORT LAUDERDALE 74 84 76 87 / 60 70 20 10 MIAMI 74 86 76 91 / 60 60 30 20 NAPLES 73 84 73 88 / 60 40 10 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BROWARD- COASTAL COLLIER-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND MIAMI DADE-INLAND PALM BEACH-MAINLAND MONROE- METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM BEACH. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #515248 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:29 PM 01.Jun.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 223 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND THE EASTERN GULF WITH A FEW LEAD SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE SUB-TROPICAL JET LIFTING NE ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF IT. UPPER HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 2 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE HAS GENERATED A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AROUND AND JUST WEST OF THE KEYS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION BECOMES CONCENTRATED. IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS INDICATING A FEW BREAKS IN THE COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. IF SO, A FEW STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS. DESPITE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT WERE NOTED FROM EARLIER MODEL SOLUTIONS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE LATEST MODEL CYCLE APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND INDICATES THE DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL INDICATE A GENERAL DRYING PATTERN OR TRANSITION PERIOD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS DRY AIR COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING CONDITIONS COME SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF 00Z RUN STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THIS DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME AND CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A DECENT SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA SATURDAY. CONSIDERING SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO THE DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA...WE WILL NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL CHANCES UP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF LINE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM PALM BEACH COUNTY TO NAPLES. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 90 THROUGH THIS TIME WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND AND ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. LONG TERM (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)... A LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY MONDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH THE WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPS OVER EASTERN AREAS. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAILY SEA BREEZE FORMATION WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PERIODS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS CONTINUING. && .AVIATION... AN AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...AND AFFECT ALL OF THE TAF SITES IN THE CWA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE VCTS FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 02Z. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH THE CWA FROM THE WEST. SO WILL CONTINUE THE VCSH AFTER 02Z FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES OF THE CWA. THE VIS AND CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COULD FALL DOWN INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE RAINS AND THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 2Z. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 73 86 74 88 / 60 60 20 10 FORT LAUDERDALE 74 84 76 87 / 60 70 20 10 MIAMI 74 86 76 91 / 60 60 30 20 NAPLES 73 84 73 88 / 60 40 10 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BROWARD- COASTAL COLLIER-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND MIAMI DADE-INLAND PALM BEACH-MAINLAND MONROE- METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM BEACH. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #515216 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 AM 01.Jun.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1101 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 .UPDATE... NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE NECESSARY THIS MORNING AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL REMAINING OFF THE COAST OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND A LARGE AREA WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM PALM BEACH TO MIAMI-DADE. HERE ARE SOME TOTALS THUS FAR FROM A FEW AREAS OF INTEREST: 24 HR TOTALS (8AM YESTERDAY THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING): DOWNTOWN MIAMI: ~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|
| #515194 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:44 AM 01.Jun.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 739 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 .UPDATE... SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION DUE TO SOME LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER...WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. WITH DEEP MOISTURE...A SUBTROPICAL JET...AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE PREVAILING IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS FOR 4-8 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH LACK OF HEATING KEPT CONDITIONS IN THE MVFR RANGE. GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...BUT WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...WINDS MAY BE VARIABLE...BUT OVERALL IN A WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT...WITH VIS/CIGS IMPROVING AFTER 06Z. && .AVIATION...BNB/AK .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012/ ..FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MIDNIGHT... ..A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING... DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STEADILY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY WHILE GRADUALLY DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO AT LEAST ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE, A SEPARATE SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL FROM THE YUCATAN NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE FEATURES, OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOME EMBEDDED DEEP CONVECTION ALSO EXTENDS FROM BROWARD COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. PRECIPITABLE WATERS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE LAYER OF DRY AIR STILL PERSISTS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. BUT, AS SYNOPTIC AND LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASE THIS MORNING ALONG WITH VORTICITY ADVECTION AND SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME PRIMED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT, WHICH WILL INCREASE BOTH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION. ALSO, THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT (80-90 KT) OF AN UPPER JET WILL LIE JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE MORNING, RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY THAT CAN MATERIALIZE, A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS QUITE LIKELY. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST ORGANIZED RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING, GENERALLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS AND EXPANDS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD INDUCE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUBSIDENCE, WITH A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT SOME GUIDANCE IS STILL A BIT SLOWER IN MOVING THE TROUGH TO THE EAST, WHICH COULD RESULT IN LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER AT LEAST SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. A LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY MONDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH THE WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPS OVER EASTERN AREAS. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAILY SEA BREEZE FORMATION WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. AVIATION...06Z ISSUANCE...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM WESTERN CUBA TOWARD KEY WEST IN ADDITION TO A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND 50 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET IS LEADING TO A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLAND MONROE AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHWARDS TOWARD KAPF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RAIN SHOULD CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES INCLUDING MIA...TMB...OPF NORTHWARD TOWARDS KFLL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...LEFT VCSH IN THE TAFS IN CASE A FEW SHOWERS DECIDE TO DEVELOP. MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF MOVES TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE HAS PREVAILING IFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS FOR 4-8 HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. ATTM...KEPT PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AND VIS...BUT IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH FLORIDA AND HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GET PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE PREVAILING MVFR VIS/CIG COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES. MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY AND THEN A BIT MORE BY SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO PERIODS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPIER CONDITIONS. DRIER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 82 71 88 74 / + 60 40 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 83 75 88 76 / + 60 40 20 MIAMI 84 75 89 76 / + 60 40 30 NAPLES 82 73 88 74 / + 60 30 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL COLLIER-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER- INLAND MIAMI DADE-INLAND PALM BEACH-MAINLAND MONROE-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM BEACH. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #515169 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 AM 01.Jun.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 424 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 ...FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MIDNIGHT... ...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STEADILY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY WHILE GRADUALLY DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO AT LEAST ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE, A SEPARATE SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL FROM THE YUCATAN NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE FEATURES, OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOME EMBEDDED DEEP CONVECTION ALSO EXTENDS FROM BROWARD COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. PRECIPITABLE WATERS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE LAYER OF DRY AIR STILL PERSISTS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. BUT, AS SYNOPTIC AND LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASE THIS MORNING ALONG WITH VORTICITY ADVECTION AND SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME PRIMED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT, WHICH WILL INCREASE BOTH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION. ALSO, THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT (80-90 KT) OF AN UPPER JET WILL LIE JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE MORNING, RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY THAT CAN MATERIALIZE, A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS QUITE LIKELY. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST ORGANIZED RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING, GENERALLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS AND EXPANDS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD INDUCE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUBSIDENCE, WITH A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT SOME GUIDANCE IS STILL A BIT SLOWER IN MOVING THE TROUGH TO THE EAST, WHICH COULD RESULT IN LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER AT LEAST SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. A LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY MONDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH THE WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPS OVER EASTERN AREAS. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAILY SEA BREEZE FORMATION WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION...06Z ISSUANCE...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM WESTERN CUBA TOWARD KEY WEST IN ADDITION TO A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND 50 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET IS LEADING TO A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLAND MONROE AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHWARDS TOWARD KAPF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RAIN SHOULD CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES INCLUDING MIA...TMB...OPF NORTHWARD TOWARDS KFLL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...LEFT VCSH IN THE TAFS IN CASE A FEW SHOWERS DECIDE TO DEVELOP. MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF MOVES TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE HAS PREVAILING IFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS FOR 4-8 HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. ATTM...KEPT PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AND VIS...BUT IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH FLORIDA AND HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GET PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE PREVAILING MVFR VIS/CIG COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES. && .MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY AND THEN A BIT MORE BY SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO PERIODS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPIER CONDITIONS. DRIER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 83 71 88 74 / + 60 40 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 83 75 88 76 / + 60 40 20 MIAMI 84 75 89 76 / + 60 40 30 NAPLES 82 73 88 74 / + 60 30 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL COLLIER-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER- INLAND MIAMI DADE-INLAND PALM BEACH-MAINLAND MONROE-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM BEACH. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #515135 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:08 AM 01.Jun.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 202 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 .AVIATION... SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM WESTERN CUBA TOWARD KEY WEST IN ADDITION TO A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND 50 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET IS LEADING TO A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLAND MONROE AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHWARDS TOWARD KAPF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RAIN SHOULD CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES INCLUDING MIA...TMB...OPF NORTHWARD TOWARDS KFLL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...LEFT VCSH IN THE TAFS IN CASE A FEW SHOWERS DECIDE TO DEVELOP. MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF MOVES TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE HAS PREVAILING IFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS FOR 4-8 HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. ATTM...KEPT PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AND VIS...BUT IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH FLORIDA AND HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GET PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE PREVAILING MVFR VIS/CIG COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012/ UPDATE...NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE EVENING UPDATES. A STEADY STREAM OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN IN THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ALSO EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING. ALSO EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IS A VORT MAX MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE HRRR ALSO INDICATES CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A RAPID INCREASE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST AFT 09Z. KOB PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012/ AVIATION...A VRY MOIST SW WND FLOW ALOFT WITH AN IMPULSE OF INSTABILITY MOVG NE FM THE W CUBA/YUCATAN CHANNEL AREA WL LEAD TO CLDY SKIES AND INCRG CHC OF RA/ISOLD TSRA MOVG ONTO THE W COAST BUT MOST LIKELY NOT MAKING TO THE E COAST THRU 06Z. VFR XPCTD ALL TERMINALS THRU 06Z XCPT PSBL MVFR CIG/VSBY AT KAPF BUT NOT DVLPG E COAST TIL 12Z. AFT 12Z NMRS/WDSPRD RA WITH ISOLD TSRA PSBL WITH WDSPRD MVFR CIG/VSBY PSBL. SFC WND DCRG TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BUT ON E COAST SSE MOSTLY BUT LGT SSW FLOW PSBL 06Z TO 12Z WITH WNDS BCMG SSE AND 10 TO 15 KTS. AT KAPF SW WND LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 09Z THEN BCMG SE-SSE WITH W COAST SEA BRZE AFT 16Z. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)... THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A FEW NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED AND PLENTY OF MID/UPPER MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE CARIBBEAN. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS UPPER PATTERN AND SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER OR NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AIR GRADUALLY FILLING IN THROUGH THE SATURDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL CHANCES ELEVATED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THIS TIME. THE LATEST MODEL PWAT VALUES REFLECT THIS AND INCREASE INTO THE 2-2.5 INCH RANGE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THIS SURGE MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. A BLEND OF THE RAW MODEL QPF AND GUIDANCE INDICATES ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS REACHING THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME. THE LATEST HPC GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THESE TOTALS AND KEEPS THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA OR SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY. AS TYPICALLY OBSERVED DURING THESE EVENTS...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY BECOME A POSSIBILITY WHERE THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY BECOMES CONCENTRATED. CONSIDERING THE RECENT RAINFALL ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST WEEK OR TWO...INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR UPDATES THROUGH THIS TIME AS A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DESPITE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...A GENERAL DRYING PATTERN WILL BE ANTICIPATED AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS DRY AIR COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING CONDITIONS COME SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS QUITE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS DRIER AIR SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIME...WE WILL NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS TIME AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)... DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ANTICIPATED EACH DAY. WITH THE MID/UPPER FLOW CONTINUING OUT OF THE WEST THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN AREAS. MARINE... LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING INTO THE MODERATE RANGE INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO PERIODS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND ANY HEAVY SHOWER OR STORM THAT DEVELOPS. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. AVIATION... SKIES WERE STARING TO CLEAR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SEA BREEZE TO SET UP OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND PUSH SLOWLY INLAND. SO WILL SHOW VRB 05 KTS UNTIL ABOUT 20Z THEN A 160 TO 170 DEGREE DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND PUSH BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL PUT IN A VCTS IN FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FROM 20Z UNTIL 01Z. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. SO WILL CONTINUE THE VCSH FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES FOR TONIGHT. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...DUE TO THE UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 86 71 89 75 / 70 60 40 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 85 75 89 78 / 70 60 40 30 MIAMI 87 75 90 77 / 70 60 40 30 NAPLES 83 72 88 73 / 80 60 20 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
