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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Morehead City, NC (Morehead City, NC Area) Selection: |
| #515451 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 PM 01.Jun.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1030 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1030 PM FRI...A CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. MOST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK...HOWEVER...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DID NOT SUSTAIN THROUGH THE CWA BUT RATHER MOVED MUCH OF THE ENERGY TO THE NORTH. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH MORE SEVERE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DIURNAL INFLUENCE. THE ONLY MECHANISM FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...WHICH LOOK WEAK. THE FRONT IS STILL TO THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT NOTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD TONIGHT. GIVEN THE TREND HOWEVER...AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE RAIN MAINTAINING THROUGH THE CWA WITH LACK OF FORCING. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST...SCT/LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... AS OF 215 PM FRI...COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OF THE NC COAST SAT MORNING WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS NEAR 80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND OBX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SCATTERED STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH SOME UPPER 50S LIKELY INLAND AND 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. ANTICIPATE A DRY DAY MONDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE. ECMWF AND GFS STILL PRETTY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF AND REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MID INTO LATE WEEK. A SERIES OF STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE VORTEX AND DROP SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT WITH A FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERING FOR A CONTINUED SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES BY AND LARGE WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/... AS OF 730 PM FRI...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EVENING THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR IN LOWERED CEILINGS/VSBYS WITH COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT. POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR A STRONGER LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE W-E ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WHICH COULD BRING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION. ADDED REDUCED VSBYS EARLY SAT WITH BR AND A FEW SHOWERS. SKIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING ONCE THE FRONT EXITS OFF THE COAST. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...GENERALLY GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SERIES OF STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES CROSS THE AREA EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 PM FRI...LATEST BUOY/WIND DATA INDICATE SCA CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. THERE ARE A FEW OBSERVATIONS ABOVE 30 KTS GUSTS. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...LOOKS LIKE THE LLJ MAY INFLUENCE SOME HIGH WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30KTS...BUT WILL DROP LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MANY BUOYS HAVE REACHED 5 FT AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FT THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE NC COAST SAT MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA LEVELS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. OTHER THAN LINGERING SEAS 3 TO 5 FT EARLY...SAT WILL BE A GOOD BOATING DAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME WHICH SHOULD KEEP SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET. AS A SERIES OF NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH AN INCREASED SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO AT LEAST 6 FEET BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 8 FEET ALONG THE OUTER REACHES OF THE MIDDLE LEGS BY WEDNESDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150- 152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DAG |
| #515412 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:53 PM 01.Jun.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 749 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 730 PM FRI...CONVECTION STILL TO THE WEST OF MHX CWA...AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES AND INSTABILITY WEAKENS... THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHES FROM AROUND LUMBERTON NNE TO ROANOKE RAPIDS...AND IS PROGGED BY NEAR TERM GUIDANCE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH MID EVENING AS SFC COLD FRONT AND UPR TROUGH APPROACH. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS CONVECTION TRANSITIONS TO A LINEAR MODE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE FROM S TO SW. SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE VALS ARE STILL AOA 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT AS OF 23Z AND WOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... AS OF 215 PM FRI...COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OF THE NC COAST SAT MORNING WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS NEAR 80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND OBX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SCATTERED STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH SOME UPPER 50S LIKELY INLAND AND 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. ANTICIPATE A DRY DAY MONDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE. ECMWF AND GFS STILL PRETTY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF AND REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MID INTO LATE WEEK. A SERIES OF STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE VORTEX AND DROP SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT WITH A FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERING FOR A CONTINUED SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES BY AND LARGE WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/... AS OF 730 PM FRI...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EVENING THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR IN LOWERED CEILINGS/VSBYS WITH COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT. POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR A STRONGER LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE W-E ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WHICH COULD BRING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION. ADDED REDUCED VSBYS EARLY SAT WITH BR AND A FEW SHOWERS. SKIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING ONCE THE FRONT EXITS OFF THE COAST. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...GENERALLY GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SERIES OF STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES CROSS THE AREA EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 730 PM FRI...LATEST BUOY/WIND DATA INDICATE NEAR SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATE CONDITIONS REACHING SCA THIS EVENING. SEAS AT BUOY 13 MILES E OF OREGON INLET HAS REACHED 5 FEET AS OF 7 PM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF WINDS LIKELY THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT UP TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 09-12Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NW AROUND 10-15 KT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS S/SWLY FLOW INCREASES AND PEAK AROUND 4-6 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE. WILL MAINTAIN SCA HEADLINES AS IS. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A STRONGER SQUALL LINE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE NC COAST SAT MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA LEVELS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. OTHER THAN LINGERING SEAS 3 TO 5 FT EARLY...SAT WILL BE A GOOD BOATING DAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME WHICH SHOULD KEEP SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET. AS A SERIES OF NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH AN INCREASED SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO AT LEAST 6 FEET BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 8 FEET ALONG THE OUTER REACHES OF THE MIDDLE LEGS BY WEDNESDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150- 152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DAG |
| #515257 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:45 PM 01.Jun.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 231 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 215 PM FRI... ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 20 NMI... A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO/SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW JERSEY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY BUILT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SIGNIFICANT HEATING ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BACKING SLIGHTLY SOUTH- SOUTHEAST HAS ALLOWED SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MOST STORMS ACROSS THE MHX CWA HAVE REMAINED SUB- SEVERE BUT A FEW CELLS ACROSS RAH CWA HAVE PRODUCED DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND EXPECT THAT GENERALLY ENVIRONMENT TO IMPROVE AS IT ADVECTS TOWARDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MHX CWA. WITH SURFACE WINDS BACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST EXPECT ENHANCED HELICITY ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS TODAY. STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. STRONG SFC BASED HEATING WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD INSTABILITY WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KTS. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A PRE-FRONTAL QUASI- LINEAR SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO ERN NC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT ALL OF THE CWA WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OFF THE NC COAST BY 09-12Z SAT MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT CROSSES. SEVERE THREAT WILL DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST EARLY TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY EARLY SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH PRECIP/CLOUD COVER INHIBITING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND OBX. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... AS OF 215 PM FRI...COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OF THE NC COAST SAT MORNING WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS NEAR 80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND OBX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SCATTERED STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH SOME UPPER 50S LIKELY INLAND AND 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. ANTICIPATE A DRY DAY MONDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE. ECMWF AND GFS STILL PRETTY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF AND REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MID INTO LATE WEEK. A SERIES OF STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE VORTEX AND DROP SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT WITH A FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERING FOR A CONTINUED SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES BY AND LARGE WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/... AS OF 220 PM FRI...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR IN LOWERED CEILINGS/VSBYS WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR A STRONGER LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE W-E ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHICH COULD BRING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS THE REGION. ADDED REDUCED VSBYS LATE TONIGHT WITH RAIN/BR. SKIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SAT MORNING ONCE THE FRONT EXITS OFF THE COAST. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...GENERALLY GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SERIES OF STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES CROSS THE AREA EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM FRI...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOUTHERLY FLOW 12-17 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ACROSS THE WATERS. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CROSSED THE COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 40 NMI NEAR AND SOUTH OF DIAMOND SHOALS. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES. SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 KTS MOST AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF WINDS LIKELY THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT UP TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 09-12Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NW AROUND 10-15 KT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS S/SWLY FLOW INCREASES AND PEAK AROUND 4-6 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE. WILL MAINTAIN SCA HEADLINES AS IS. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A STRONGER SQUALL LINE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE NC COAST SAT MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA LEVELS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. OTHER THAN LINGERING SEAS 3 TO 5 FT EARLY...SAT WILL BE A GOOD BOATING DAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME WHICH SHOULD KEEP SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET. AS A SERIES OF NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH AN INCREASED SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO AT LEAST 6 FEET BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 8 FEET ALONG THE OUTER REACHES OF THE MIDDLE LEGS BY WEDNESDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150- 152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DAG |
| #515205 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:12 AM 01.Jun.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1007 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... AS OF 950 AM FRI...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NEAR TERM THIS MORNING TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS IN TEMPS/DEWPOINTS...AND FOR WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS CARTERET/ONSLOW/JONES/CRAVEN COUNTIES. A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH RESIDES OVER IL/IN/WI EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN ASSOC SFC CYCLONE LIFTING NE INTO OHIO...WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE NAM/RUC HAVE BEEN MOST ROBUST WITH MIDLEVEL VORT MAX AND WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...MATCHING WELL WITH WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS ALTHOUGH NO LIGHTNING HAS YET BEEN OBSERVED. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ALONG THE HWY 17 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. STRONG SFC BASED HEATING WITH S/SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD INSTABILITY WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 30-40 KTS. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A PRE-FRONTAL QUASI-LINEAR SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO ERN NC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT ALL OF THE CWA WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. S/SWLY FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES CHANGING LITTLE FROM YDA AND EXPECT HIGH IN THE M/U80 INLAND TO AROUND 80 COAST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM FRI...CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FRI EVENING WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL PERSISTING MUCH OF THE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION UNTIL AFTER 06Z. SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE FRONT BUT INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH BEST PVA LIFTING N OF THE REGION AND EXPECT MINIMAL SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTER INITIAL SQUALL LINE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE M/U60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 COAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER N ATLC WILL LEAD TO UPR LVL TROFFING ALONG E COAST DURING PERIOD. SEVERAL SHRT WVS EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH TROF...ACCOMPANIED BY SFC FRONTS. MODEL BLEND USED FOR SAT-MON PERIODS WITH MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. NO CHANGES FOR TUE-THU AS 00Z/01 GFS DISCOUNTED AS APPEARS OVERDONE WITH SHRT WV MOVING OUT OF GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. INITIAL COLD FRONT FCST TO BE JUST OFF COAST AT 12Z SAT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS UNTIL MID MORNING. MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WAS TO DROP POPS FOR INLAND SECTIONS. MAINLY CHANNELED SHRT WV ENERGY WILL APPROACH SAT NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL MODELS INDICATING SOME LIGHT QPF...MAINLY NRN SECTIONS...ON SUNDAY...BUT DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AND KEPT DRY FCST. DEEPENING UPR TROF AND ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY WILL BRING SLGT CHC POPS FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REST OF PERIOD...WITH BEST CHC EXPECTED ON TUE WITH STRONGER SHRT WV. WITH HEIGHTS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL DURING PERIOD...TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS WELL. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 AM FRI...ANTECEDENT WET SOILS FROM TD BERYL COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWED MVFR/IFR FOG TO FORM EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT HAS SENSE MIXED OUT EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING LOW STRATUS/FOG AT ISO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE EVERYWHERE BETWEEN 14-15Z ALTHOUGH WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY KEEP MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FOR EWN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A LARGE SCALE COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE W-E ACROSS THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHICH COULD BRING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY S/SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...ANY LINGERING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-MORNING SAT...WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING INTO MON WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER AREA. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD RETURN MON AFTN...BUT BETTER CHC ON TUE WITH STRONGER SHRT WV. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1010 AM FRI...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOUTHERLY FLOW 7-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ACROSS THE WATERS. WEAK SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED JUST NORTH OFF AR285 OR JUST EAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. S/SSW FLOW INCREASES TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION AND EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 KTS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF WINDS LIKEY THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT UP TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 06-12Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NW AROUND 10-15 KT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS S/SWLY FLOW INCREASES AND PEAK AROUND 4-6 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE. WILL MAINTAIN SCA HEADLINES AS IS. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A STRONGER SQUALL LINE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OFFSHORE SAT MORNING...BUT POST-FRONTAL SURGE BRIEF AND WEAKENING BY AFTN. SERIES OF SECONDARY COLD FRONTS WILL PRODUCE PERIOD OF STRONGER W TO NW WINDS SUN NIGHT AND MON...THEN NW TO N ON TUE...BUT SPEEDS MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FT DURING PERIOD...EXCEPT BUILDING TO 5-6 FT OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS ON TUE WITH INCREASING NRLY WINDS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150-152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SK |
| #515180 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:57 AM 01.Jun.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 551 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 315 AM FRI...A ROUBUST UPPER TROUGH RESIDES OVER IL/WI EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN ASSOC SFC CYCLONE LIFTING NE INTO OHIO...WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED AS FAR S AS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION LAST EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG IT...BUT HAS SINCE LIFTED INTO SE VA WITH THE SHOWERS ADVECTING OFFSHORE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH DAY BREAK...HOWEVER WILL BE WATCHING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRESENTLY LIFTING NE ACROSS SC POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH ASSOC VORT MAX AND WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE BUT THINK WE COULD SEE ISOL-SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AS THIS FEATURE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SFC BASED HEATING COMMENCES. STRONGER STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION AS IT BECOMES POSITIVELY TILTED. STRONG SFC BASED HEATING WITH S/SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD INSTABLITY WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 30-40 KTS. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A PRE- FRONTAL QUASI-LINEAR SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO ERN NC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCTING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT ALL OF THE CWA WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE. S/SWLY FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES CHANGING LITTLE FROM YDA AND EXPECT HIGH IN THE M/U80 INLAND TO AROUND 80 COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 AM FRI...CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FRI EVENING WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL PERSISTING MUCH OF THE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXEPCTED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION UNTIL AFTER 06Z. SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE FRONT BUT INSTABLITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH BEST PVA LIFTING N OF THE REGION AND EXPECT MINIMAL SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTER INITIAL SQUALL LINE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE M/U60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 COAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER N ATLC WILL LEAD TO UPR LVL TROFFING ALONG E COAST DURING PERIOD. SEVERAL SHRT WVS EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH TROF...ACCOMPANIED BY SFC FRONTS. MODEL BLEND USED FOR SAT-MON PERIODS WITH MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. NO CHANGES FOR TUE-THU AS 00Z/01 GFS DISCOUNTED AS APPEARS OVERDONE WITH SHRT WV MOVING OUT OF GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. INITIAL COLD FRONT FCST TO BE JUST OFF COAST AT 12Z SAT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS UNTIL MID MORNING. MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WAS TO DROP POPS FOR INLAND SECTIONS. MAINLY CHANNELED SHRT WV ENERGY WILL APPROACH SAT NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL MODELS INDICATING SOME LIGHT QPF...MAINLY NRN SECTIONS...ON SUNDAY...BUT DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AND KEPT DRY FCST. DEEPENING UPR TROF AND ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY WILL BRING SLGT CHC POPS FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REST OF PERIOD...WITH BEST CHC EXPECTED ON TUE WITH STRONGER SHRT WV. WITH HEIGHTS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL DURING PERIOD...TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS WELL. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 545 AM FRI...ANTECEDENT WET SOILS FROM TD BERYL COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOW BETTER COVERAGE OF FOG THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. PREDOMINATELY IFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED S OF HIGHWAY 70 AND W OF HIGHWAY 17 AND AFFECTING ISO AND OAJ. SOMEWHAT IMPROVED CONDITIONS REMAIN TO THE N AND E...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING MVFR AT PGV AND VFR AT EWN BUT COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS HERE THROUGH 13Z. EXPECT CONDITION TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE EVERYWHERE BETWEEN 12-13Z. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A LARGE SCALE COLD FRONT. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTS NE ACROSS THE AREA...THEN WILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE W-E ACROSS THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHICH COULD BRING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY S/SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...ANY LINGERING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-MORNING SAT...WITH VFR THEN PREVAINING INTO MON WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER AREA. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD RETURN MON AFTN...BUT BETTER CHC ON TUE WITH STRONGER SHRT WV. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM FRI...S/SW FLOW INCREASES TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION AND EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 KTS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF WINDS LIKEY THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT UP TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 06-12Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NW AROUND 10-15 KT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS S/SWLY FLOW INCREASES AND PEAK AROUND 4-6 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE. WILL MAINTAIN SCA HEADLINES AS IS. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A STRONGER SQUALL LINE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OFFSHORE SAT MORNING...BUT POST-FRONTAL SURGE BRIEF AND WEAKENING BY AFTN. SERIES OF SECONDARY COLD FRONTS WILL PRODUCE PERIOD OF STRONGER W TO NW WINDS SUN NIGHT AND MON...THEN NW TO N ON TUE...BUT SPEEDS MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FT DURING PERIOD...EXCEPT BUILDING TO 5-6 FT OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS ON TUE WITH INCREASING NRLY WINDS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150-152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SK |
| #515150 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:57 AM 01.Jun.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 355 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 315AM FRI...A ROUBUST UPPER TROUGH RESIDES OVER IL/WI EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN ASSOC SFC CYCLONE LIFTING NE INTO OHIO...WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED AS FAR S AS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION LAST EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG IT...BUT HAS SINCE LIFTED INTO SE VA WITH THE SHOWERS ADVECTING OFFSHORE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH DAY BREAK...HOWEVER WILL BE WATCHING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRESENTLY LIFTING NE ACROSS SC POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH ASSOC VORT MAX AND WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE BUT THINK WE COULD SEE ISOL-SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AS THIS FEATURE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SFC BASED HEATING COMMENCES. STRONGER STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION AS IT BECOMES POSITIVELY TILTED. STRONG SFC BASED HEATING WITH S/SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD INSTABLITY WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 30-40 KTS. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A PRE- FRONTAL QUASI-LINEAR SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO ERN NC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCTING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT ALL OF THE CWA WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE. S/SWLY FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES CHANGING LITTLE FROM YDA AND EXPECT HIGH IN THE M/U80 INLAND TO AROUND 80 COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 AM FRI...CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FRI EVENING WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL PERSISTING MUCH OF THE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXEPCTED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION UNTIL AFTER 06Z. SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE FRONT BUT INSTABLITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH BEST PVA LIFTING N OF THE REGION AND EXPECT MINIMAL SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTER INITIAL SQUALL LINE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE M/U60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 COAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER N ATLC WILL LEAD TO UPR LVL TROFFING ALONG E COAST DURING PERIOD. SEVERAL SHRT WVS EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH TROF...ACCOMPANIED BY SFC FRONTS. MODEL BLEND USED FOR SAT-MON PERIODS WITH MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. NO CHANGES FOR TUE-THU AS 00Z/01 GFS DISCOUNTED AS APPEARS OVERDONE WITH SHRT WV MOVING OUT OF GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. INITIAL COLD FRONT FCST TO BE JUST OFF COAST AT 12Z SAT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS UNTIL MID MORNING. MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WAS TO DROP POPS FOR INLAND SECTIONS. MAINLY CHANNELED SHRT WV ENERGY WILL APPROACH SAT NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL MODELS INDICATING SOME LIGHT QPF...MAINLY NRN SECTIONS...ON SUNDAY...BUT DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AND KEPT DRY FCST. DEEPENING UPR TROF AND ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY WILL BRING SLGT CHC POPS FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REST OF PERIOD...WITH BEST CHC EXPECTED ON TUE WITH STRONGER SHRT WV. WITH HEIGHTS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL DURING PERIOD...TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS WELL. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM FRI...PATCHY MVFR FOG EXPECTED BTWN 09-13Z GIVEN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THOUGH GIVEN CROSSOVER TEMPS IN THE U50S/L60S DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A LARGE SCALE COLD FRONT. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTS NE ACROSS THE AREA...THEN WILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE W-E ACROSS THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHICH COULD BRING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY S/SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...ANY LINGERING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-MORNING SAT...WITH VFR THEN PREVAINING INTO MON WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER AREA. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD RETURN MON AFTN...BUT BETTER CHC ON TUE WITH STRONGER SHRT WV. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM FRI...S/SW FLOW INCREASES TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION AND EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 KTS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF WINDS LIKEY THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT UP TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 06-12Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NW AROUND 10-15 KT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS S/SWLY FLOW INCREASES AND PEAK AROUND 4-6 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE. WILL MAINTAIN SCA HEADLINES AS IS. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A STRONGER SQUALL LINE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OFFSHORE SAT MORNING...BUT POST-FRONTAL SURGE BRIEF AND WEAKENING BY AFTN. SERIES OF SECONDARY COLD FRONTS WILL PRODUCE PERIOD OF STRONGER W TO NW WINDS SUN NIGHT AND MON...THEN NW TO N ON TUE...BUT SPEEDS MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FT DURING PERIOD...EXCEPT BUILDING TO 5-6 FT OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS ON TUE WITH INCREASING NRLY WINDS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150-152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SK |
