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| #516124 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:21 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1116 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... LOW PRES SE OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AND BACK TO THE N AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS WDLY SCT LATE THIS EVE...WITH A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS TRACKING FROM N TO S ACROSS CT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER MA ALSO PRESSING SOUTHWARD...AND HAVE LEFT CHC POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SHOULD BE DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOKED ON TRACK SO NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ISOLD AM SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME SCT TO NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON VIA INCREASED SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM ANOTHER VORT MAX PIVOTING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WHICH SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST S OF NOVA SCOTIA AT THAT TIME. BEST AREAL COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE INLAND...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SPARK A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FROM NYC WEST INTO NE NJ. HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THEN THOSE OF TODAY...65-70. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD SOUTHWARD TUE NIGHT...WHICH ALONG WITH LOSS OD DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BRING AN END TO SHOWERS TUE NIGHT. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TOUGH TO TIME ANY INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE TROUGH. ANY OF THESE FEATURES COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DIURNAL PRECIP EXPECTED THIS TIME FRAME DURING MAX HEATING...INCREASED INSTABILITY. HIGHEST COVERAGE WOULD BE OVER THE INTERIOR DUE TO THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY. RIDGE BUILDS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY THIS TIME FRAME...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN CHECK FOR MAINLY SHOWERS AND NOT MUCH THUNDER. AS FOR TEMPS...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS. HOWEVER...WITH RIDGE BUILDING...AIR MASS WARMS AND WE SHOULD SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE MOVES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. DRYING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY LATE THIS EVENING. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERALLY CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...BUT TOO FAR OUT AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. CHANCES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER INLAND SO KSWF HAS VCSH IN AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND OR LESS THAN 10 KT SUSTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER IN THE DAY WITH EASTERN TERMINALS HAVING GUSTS END TOWARDS EARLY EVENING. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE WITH ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...MAINLY IN THE AFT/EARLY EVE HOURS. .SATURDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES TO CURRENT HEADLINES. PRES GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS FALLING BELOW SCA LEVELS ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING. LINGERING OCEAN SEAS OVER 5 FT LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF TUE...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE EVENING OUT EAST. DID NOT YET EXTEND SCA FOR THE ERN WATERS DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. WEAK FLOW AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... SIGNIFICANT AREA QPF OVER 1/2 INCH NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH MAINLY SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY. LOCAL DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED ON THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND NY HARBOR AND THE THREAT FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING HAS ENDED HERE. A FEW LOCATIONS STILL REMAIN ABOVE MINOR BENCHMARKS...AND SHOULD FALL BELOW WITHIN THE NEXT 1/2 HR...SO HAVE LEFT HEADLINES AS IS UNTIL THEY DROP BELOW. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR LOCATIONS BORDERING WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...ALTHOUGH AREAS IN NORTHERN NASSAU AND QUEENS HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THE MODERATE NE FLOW. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLOODING ALONG BOTH THE SOUTH AND NORTH SHORES OF LONG ISLAND/NYC THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TIDAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT...BEFORE TIDAL LEVELS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ009. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ010. NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ072- 074-075-079>081. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-073- 176-177. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ178- 179. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ078. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ006. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ |
| #516123 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:09 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COASTS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. BEHIND IT, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY, WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THEN SETTLE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 930 PM ESTF: MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS DEWS. THE WIDESPREAD AND IN PART DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS IN E PA SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING. WE CONTD THAT TREND PER PREVIOUS FCST. THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TWD MORNING. NOT ENVISIONING MUCH FOG IN THIS PATTERN. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LOW 50S MOST OTHER AREAS. WINDS WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... MUCH OF THE SAME WEATHER ON TUESDAY AS WAS FOR TODAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY...BUT ENOUGH COLD AIR LINGERS ALOFT AND MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. POPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW...WITH THE NORTHERN AREAS MORE FAVORED...BEING CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE WILL REMAIN COOL WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. A FEW DOWNPOURS/GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR TUE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE GFS INITIALIZATION WAS SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB SO BY THIS TIME PERIOD WE LEANED MORE TOWARD ITS DIRECTION. THERE WILL BE A SLOW UNRAVELING OF THE REX BLOCK GOING FORWARD WITH WARMER WEATHER RETURNING AS THE LONG TERM PROGRESSES. SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND TUESDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTING ANY THUNDER. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK CAPABLE OF TRAPPING IN CLOUDS BELOW THE WEAK INVERSION SO ARE GOING WITH A CLEAR(ER) SOLUTION OVERNIGHT. THUS WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER GFS MOS MINS ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE RADIATING PARTS OF THE SERN PART OF OUR CWA. LESS CONFIDENCE ABOUT MINS NORTHWEST. MORE SELF DESTRUCT SUN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THE FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS WELL AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVES ARE FAVORING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA MORE SO THAN THE SOUTHEAST. THE FORECAST CONVECTIVE AND 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE TO MAX TEMPS. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THUNDER POSSIBLE EARLY. SOME AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS BEGINNING SO WE UPPED THE MINS ABOUT A CATEGORY FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. ON THURSDAY DAY, THE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS MORE UNIVERSALLY PLACED IN OUR CWA PLUS THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FCST QVEC CONVERGENCE AS THE SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED THROUGH THE BACK DOOR IN THE SREF POPS AS THEY ARE HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY. WE TRENDED OUR POPS HIER, BUT WANT TO SEE MORE SUSTAINED CORROBORATION BEFORE INTRODUCING LIKELY POPS. LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WE ARE SEEING ABOUT AN UPTICK IN THE AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND HIER FCST CONVECTIVE TEMPS SO MAX TEMPS WERE NUDGED HIER BY ABOUT 2-4F FROM WEDNESDAY. WE START LOSING OUR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY DAY, SO POPS ARE MUCH LOWER AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF DELMARVA ON FRIDAY DAY. AS THE 500MB RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN. 90 BY NEXT MONDAY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR OUR CWA. WE WILL ALSO HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH WE SUPPOSE SOME SYSTEMS COMING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MIGHT MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. CONFIDENCE AND TIMING ABOUT THIS ARE LESS THAN AVERAGE, SO WHERE WE DO HAVE POPS, THEY WERE KEPT PRETTY LOW. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY VFR CIGS BUT ISOLATED FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING... ESPECIALLY IF SKY COVER BECOMES SCT OR CLR. PATCHY MVFR CIGS IN NJ MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD KABE AND KMPO OVERNIGHT. MINOR MIXING WITH WIND WILL PROBABLY LIMIT FOG TO ONLY A COUPLE OF TAF LOCATIONS...MAINLY KRDG AND KMIV. NNE WIND G UNDER 15 KTS. CONFIDENCE ON ANY FOG RESTRICTION IS BELOW AVG AND CONFIDENCE ON CLEARING AFTER 06Z IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE. TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE EAST...BUT OVERALL FCST REMAINS SIMILAR WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. WINDS TUE WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY AT 10 TO 15 KTS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. NO WIND RELATED ISSUES EXPECTED. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH LESS IF ANY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. NO WIND RELATED ISSUES EXPECTED. && .MARINE... SCA FLAGS ARE UP FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DEL BAY. WINDS ARE GUSTING 20 TO 28 KTS. SEAS AT THE BUOYS WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 5 OR 6 FT TUE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME 5FT SEAS AT THE MOUTH OF THE DEL BAY ALSO...SO WE WILL KEEP THE SCA GOING OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. WEATHER...SCT SHOWERS. OUTLOOK... WHILE WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY TUESDAY EVENING, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS MIGHT LINGER ON THE OCEAN SIDE. THE ADVISORY WAS NOT EXTENDED AT THIS TIME BECAUSE CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH. BUT BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT, WE ARE EXPECTING BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BUILDS INTO AND THEN STARTS SETTLING SOUTH OF OUR CWA. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDAL FLOOD EPISODES SHOULD NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT ALONG THE DE AND NJ ATLC COASTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENINGS BUT EXCEEDENCE OF MINOR ADVISORY THRESHOLDS IS VERY HIGHLY PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY EVENING. IN FACT...THE LOWER HIGH TIDE CYCLE TUESDAY MORNING AROUND 9 AM...MAY BE FLIRTING WITH THE MINOR THRESHOLD. BUT THE MAIN TIDAL FLOODING EVENTS WILL BE THE EVENING HIGH TIDES. PHILADELPHIA: THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER IS CONTINUING TO MODEL A MINOR EVENT WITHIN AN HOUR OF THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THE TIDES MAY RUN A BIT HIGHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM REEDY POINT TO PHILADELPHIA AND NEWBOLD. OUTLOOK... WHILE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ON TUESDAY EVENING, IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL REACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEANSIDE AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AS DBFOS GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE TOO RAMBUNCTIOUS. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES START SLIDING DOWNWARD ON TUESDAY SO BY WEDNESDAY WITH A LIGHTER FLOW, ALL AREAS MAY BE FREE OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. ON CHESAPEAKE BAY, WE ARE TAKING A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH AS CBFOS GUIDANCE IS ALREADY TOO HOT. WE SUPPOSE IF WE ARE WRONG, MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS MIGHT BE REACHED WITH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. && .RIP CURRENTS... 6 FT SEA...8 SEC PERIOD AND A SYNOPTIC WIND OF 0317 IN THE 15Z-18Z PERIOD TUESDAY SHOULD EASILY PRODUCE A MDT RISK OF DANGEROUS RIPS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE FULL MOON. DEWEY BEACH WATER TEMP THIS AFTN WAS 67F. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ070-071. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ016>019. DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR DEZ001. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455. && $$ |
| #516121 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1045 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE REGION. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1045 PM MONDAY...AT THE MOMENT THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER NVA...IE. DECENT AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE. EVEN WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED ENE TO WSW...PARTIALLY ACROSS THE AREA...THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE EXITING MID-LEVEL S/W TROF WILL KEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT NULL TO POSSIBLY ISOLATED DURING LATE NIGHT PERIOD. THE DYNAMICS FROM AN UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL S/W TROF THAT IS PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE NE STATES...WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS OF TUESDAY. HAVE INDICATED INCREASING LOW CHANCE POPS TOWARD SUNRISE...AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. CURRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST REQUIRED ONLY MINOR TWEAKING OF 1 TO 2 DEGREES DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND THE CFP. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 355 PM MONDAY...COMPLEX AND MUDDLED FORECAST DUE TO TIMING OF UPPER IMPULSES MOVING RATHER SWIFTLY DOWN THE WEST PORTIONS OF AN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE...AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MAY STALL OVER OUR VERY SOUTHERN ZONES. ONE IMPULSE OVER ILLINOIS PRESENTLY WILL DROP SE IMPACTING OUR ZONES WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY MORNING AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY IN AN E-W FASHION SETTLES...WE MAY SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA THROUGH TUESDAY...PERHAPS FAVORED OVER SC. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN 4-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUE/WED...WHEREAS MIN TEMPS DUR TO CLOUDS COULD HOLD NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND HIGH TIDE...BUT AFTER THIS ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL WANE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. ON THURSDAY. LOCALLY THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO BELOW CLIMO TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE FURTHER MODULATED BY THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER ACTING TO INHIBIT INSOLATION. VERY SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY MAINLY EARLY IN THE DAY. ONE FINAL PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH ACTING TO SWING IT OFF THE COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY CROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS OR BE A BIT FURTHER EAST. EITHER WAY THE COOL SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL NOT BEAR MUCH OR ANY INSTABILITY SO ANY PRECIP GENERATED WILL EITHER BE STRATIFORM OR SHALLOW CONVECTION AND NOT LEAD TO APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS AT ALL ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY IS STARTING TO LOOK DRIER DUE THE THE FRONT SLIPPING SO FAR TO THE SOUTH. THE SECOND PORTION OF THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY ON WILL FEATURE MUCH DIFFERENT WEATHER. THE EXIT OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW BUILDING HEIGHTS FROM THE WEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIMILARLY SHIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO AN OFFSHORE POSITION. SKY COVER SHOULD IMPROVE AND TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT TO CLIMO OR ABOVE. DEWPOINTS MUCH MORE TYPICAL OF JUNE WILL ALSO BE BACK IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 00Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF POTENTIAL BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS FROM 06Z TO 12Z. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ATTM...THE PROBABILITY OF ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE BEING IMPACTED IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT OVERNIGHT. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE ST DEVELOPMENT IN THE 06Z TO 12Z WINDOW AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRIER AIR UPSTREAM WILL NOT MAKE IT TO AREA TAF SITES AS WINDS RAPIDLY GO NE AFTER FROPA. IF THIS OCCURS...IT IS MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE FRONTAL INVERSION MAY ALLOW IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT AREA TAF SITES. FOR NOW...IFR CIGS ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AS THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY DOES NOT DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY AFTER FROPA. A PROB 30 GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE 18Z TO 24Z WINDOW FOR -TSRA AT THE SC TAF LOCATIONS AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THAT PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORMS IN THE AREA. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1045 PM MONDAY...SFC COLD FRONT OR LETS JUST CALL IT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY....WILL SNAKE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT CROSSING THE MOST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND TO SEVERAL HRS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. VERY WEAK NE-ENE SURGE WELL AFTER FROPA...WITH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM WATERS TO OBSERVE IT. OVERALL...LOOK FOR A VEERING WIND DIRECTION CHANGE WITH OVERALL WIND SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS WITH DOMINATE PERIODS OF 5 SECONDS. AN UNDERLYING 1 FOOT OR LESS ESE SWELL AT 13-15 SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 355 PM MONDAY...VARIABLE BUT LIGHT WINDS INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE WATERS. BY TUESDAY AFTN PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL...VEERING TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH ONE LOW PRESSURE WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY...AND PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA...MOUNTING NE WINDS IN RESPONSE COULD BRING SEAS TO A 4-5 FOOT RANGE N OF CAPE FEAR AND OVER THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY...BUT ADVISORIES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE NEEDED...BUT CAUTIONARY STATEMENT POTENTIALLY MAY BE. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH DAY OVER THE WATERS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 355 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING A LIGHT ONSHORE/EASTERLY WIND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NE VS SOUTHEAST HINGING UPON WHETHER OR NOT A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTH. EITHER WAY WIND SPEED WILL BE CAPPED AT 10KT OR SO AND THE RESULTING SEAS QUITE SMALL IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE SWELL. THE EXIT OF THE LOW PAIRED WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH ON FRIDAY WILL BACK WINDS TO N OR NW AND COULD RESULT IN A SHORT LIVED INCREASE IN SPEED OF 5 KT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST AND QUITE VARIABLE ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY FINDS ITSELF CENTERED OFFSHORE FOR A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT LOCALLY LATE IN THE DAY OR BY NIGHTTIME. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #516120 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1052 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT DOPPLER RADAR SCANS SHOW NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS OR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS DETECTED SOME 50-75 MILES NORTHWEST OF DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK. HOWEVER...LITTLE MOVEMENT IS DETECTED. THE KEY WEST EVENING RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION SHOWED DRY AIR EXTENDING DOWN ALMOST TO THE CONDENSATION LEVEL NEAR 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND. IN ADDITION...MODERATE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WAS PRESENT AT LOW ALTITUDES...AND FEW SOURCES OF MESOSCALE LIFT WERE IDENTIFIED PER EVENING SURFACE...RADAR...AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS. FORECASTS ARE ALREADY INDICATING SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST PERIOD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH OUR ANALYSIS...AND WE HAVE NO INTENTION OF CHANGING THAT FOR OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE... LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES WILL TURN SOUTHWEST OR WEST AND FRESHEN SOME BY DAYBREAK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516119 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 939 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR NEXT FEW DAYS AS AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP TO 5 TO 10 MPH ON TUESDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP IN TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT WITH MID 90S ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...THUS NO UPDATES NEEDED. JUST ISSUED A PNS TO PROMOTE THE 2012 READY OR NOT HURRICANE WORKSHOP ON SATURDAY JUNE 9TH...FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM AT THE GEORGE R BROWN CONVENTION CENTER IN HOUSTON. WE HOPE TO SEE YOU THERE! && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ AVIATION... VFR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH FEW/SCT LOW CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO GO WITH BKN/OVC CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS. WOULD STILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF LOWER CLOUD DECKS DO DEVELOP WITH A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING SIMILAR TO WHAT THE AREA SAW TODAY. EXPECTING GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE LESS WIND TOO. THE AREA WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING WITH SOME SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PERSISTING (AND INCREASING) THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND. 42 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... THE WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AND N TX THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN LIFTING THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE MODELS THEN DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND WITH HOW FAR SOUTHWEST A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INTO SE TX. THE MAIN IDEA FROM THE MODELS IS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PW/S ON BOTH MODELS WERE SIMILAR TO THE MODEL OUTPUT FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH VALUES FORECASTED BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2 INCHES. WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL CONFINED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW. THE MODELS SLOWED DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF THE WEAKNESS ALOFT AND SLOWLY MOVE IT TOWARD THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN IF THE UPPER TROUGH DOES MOVE EAST EARLIER...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN SET UP. MARINE... LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND BRINGING MORE EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE COAST. IN ADDITION TO THIS FRONT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING MID WEEK AND PERSISTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 38 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 93 73 93 73 / 10 20 20 40 30 HOUSTON (IAH) 74 94 74 92 73 / 10 20 20 40 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 80 88 78 86 78 / 10 20 20 40 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516117 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1046 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 2230...STEADY RAIN HAS FINALLY CLEARED THE CWA TO THE S TONIGHT...AND OTHER THAN FEW SCT -SHRA OVERNIGHT...AN EXPECT TO LITTLE...IF ANY...ADDL PRECIP ACCUMS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FLOOD WATERS TO RECEDE OVERNIGHT AT A FASTER PACE. CHANGES TO GRIDS WERE MINOR...BUT DID CUT BACKS TO CHC OR SLT CHC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. PREVIOUSLY...COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE IS SLOW TO DEPART. THIS WILL MEAN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS HEAVY AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MIN TEMPS A BLEND OF THE NAM/MET/MAV. WENT WITH LOW LIKELY POPS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND CHANCE OVER THE FAR INTERIOR. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SAME OLD STORY FOR TUESDAY. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. PLENTY OF CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN MONDAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKING FOR LOWS SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL EDGE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM EASTERN QUEBEC. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE BUT DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO RESULT IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MARGINAL CAPES MAY PRODUCE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL FINALLY BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION. WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC MAY BRING A LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES BUT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS. VARIABLE CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR AN EVENING SHOWER. ELSEWHERE LOOKING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WARMER AIR SHIFTS BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION. WON`T BE A PERFECTLY SUNNY DAY AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF EVENING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH COOL...DAMP FLOW FROM OFF THE OCEAN AND MARITIMES. LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS IT WILL TAKE SEAS QUITE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE. SOME OCNL 25 KNOTTERS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LONG TERM...NO FLAGS. && .HYDROLOGY... 2240...THE LARGER...SLOWER REACTING RIVERS REMAIN ABV FLOOD STAGE...THE KENNEBEC...AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN AT AUBURN...EVERYTHING ELSE HAS FALLEN BLO...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE FLOOD WATERS FROM THE SMALLER CREEKS RECEDE AT A QUICKER PACE OVERNIGHT...AND ARE STARTING TO GET IN MORE REPORTS OF ROADS REOPENING...HOWEVER...FLOODED ROADS REMAIN IN SOME SPOTS...AND IT MAY TAKE UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING FOR SOME OF THEM TO CLEAR. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...THE HIGHEST IN A CYCLE OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES /11.9 FEET MLLW AT 1143 PM AT PORTLAND/ WILL OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH ROUGH SURF. AROUND A 1 FT SURGE IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL PRODUCE IMPACT LVLS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY EVENINGS HIGH TIDE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL FLOOD WARNING STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ023>028. NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ014. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ SYNOPSIS... |
| #516115 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 939 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR NEXT FEW DAYS AS AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP TO 5 TO 10 MPH ON TUESDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP IN TO MID 70S WITH MID 90S ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...THUS NO UPDATES NEEDED. JUST ISSUED A PNS TO PROMOTE THE 2012 READY OR NOT HURRICANE WORKSHOP ON SATURDAY JUNE 9TH...FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM AT THE GEORGE R BROWN CONVENTION CENTER IN HOUSTON. WE HOPE TO SEE YOU THERE! && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ AVIATION... VFR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH FEW/SCT LOW CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO GO WITH BKN/OVC CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS. WOULD STILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF LOWER CLOUD DECKS DO DEVELOP WITH A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING SIMILAR TO WHAT THE AREA SAW TODAY. EXPECTING GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE LESS WIND TOO. THE AREA WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING WITH SOME SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PERSISTING (AND INCREASING) THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND. 42 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... THE WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AND N TX THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN LIFTING THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE MODELS THEN DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND WITH HOW FAR SOUTHWEST A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INTO SE TX. THE MAIN IDEA FROM THE MODELS IS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PW/S ON BOTH MODELS WERE SIMILAR TO THE MODEL OUTPUT FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH VALUES FORECASTED BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2 INCHES. WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL CONFINED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW. THE MODELS SLOWED DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF THE WEAKNESS ALOFT AND SLOWLY MOVE IT TOWARD THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN IF THE UPPER TROUGH DOES MOVE EAST EARLIER...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN SET UP. MARINE... LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND BRINGING MORE EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE COAST. IN ADDITION TO THIS FRONT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING MID WEEK AND PERSISTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 38 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 93 73 93 73 / 10 20 20 40 30 HOUSTON (IAH) 74 94 74 92 73 / 10 20 20 40 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 80 88 78 86 78 / 10 20 20 40 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516111 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:30 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 919 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION...CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS NW WEBB COUNTY WHERE LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES LOWEST CIN AND STRONGEST CAPE EXIST...AND HAVE UPPED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SAID LOCALE. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM...ALONG WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING /NEARLY 80 STRIKES IN 5 MIN WITH CURRENTLY WARNED STORM/...WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY OVER NEXT TWO HOURS AS DIURNAL HEATING FADES. WILL BE A CLOSE CALL FOR LAREDO AS TO WHETHER STORMS MAKE IT INTO THE CITY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS S TX...COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND INCREASING SFC TO 1KM LAPSE RATES OVER EASTERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY MARINE ZONES SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY OUT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 75 91 75 92 74 / 10 20 10 20 10 VICTORIA 75 93 73 95 73 / 10 20 20 20 10 LAREDO 77 101 77 102 76 / 20 10 10 20 20 ALICE 75 95 73 97 73 / 10 20 10 20 10 ROCKPORT 79 89 78 89 78 / 10 20 20 20 20 COTULLA 75 98 74 98 73 / 20 10 10 20 20 KINGSVILLE 75 94 76 95 74 / 10 20 10 20 10 NAVY CORPUS 79 90 77 90 77 / 10 20 20 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516110 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:06 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 956 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COASTS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. BEHIND IT, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY, WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THEN SETTLE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 930 PM ESTF: MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS DEWS. THE WIDESPREAD AND IN PART DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS IN E PA SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING. WE CONTD THAT TREND PER PREVIOUS FCST. THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TWD MORNING. NOT ENVISIONING MUCH FOG IN THIS PATTERN. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LOW 50S MOST OTHER AREAS. WINDS WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... MUCH OF THE SAME WEATHER ON TUESDAY AS WAS FOR TODAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY...BUT ENOUGH COLD AIR LINGERS ALOFT AND MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. POPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW...WITH THE NORTHERN AREAS MORE FAVORED...BEING CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE WILL REMAIN COOL WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. A FEW DOWNPOURS/GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR TUE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE GFS INITIALIZATION WAS SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB SO BY THIS TIME PERIOD WE LEANED MORE TOWARD ITS DIRECTION. THERE WILL BE A SLOW UNRAVELING OF THE REX BLOCK GOING FORWARD WITH WARMER WEATHER RETURNING AS THE LONG TERM PROGRESSES. SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND TUESDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTING ANY THUNDER. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK CAPABLE OF TRAPPING IN CLOUDS BELOW THE WEAK INVERSION SO ARE GOING WITH A CLEAR(ER) SOLUTION OVERNIGHT. THUS WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER GFS MOS MINS ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE RADIATING PARTS OF THE SERN PART OF OUR CWA. LESS CONFIDENCE ABOUT MINS NORTHWEST. MORE SELF DESTRUCT SUN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THE FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS WELL AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVES ARE FAVORING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA MORE SO THAN THE SOUTHEAST. THE FORECAST CONVECTIVE AND 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE TO MAX TEMPS. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THUNDER POSSIBLE EARLY. SOME AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS BEGINNING SO WE UPPED THE MINS ABOUT A CATEGORY FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. ON THURSDAY DAY, THE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS MORE UNIVERSALLY PLACED IN OUR CWA PLUS THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FCST QVEC CONVERGENCE AS THE SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED THROUGH THE BACK DOOR IN THE SREF POPS AS THEY ARE HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY. WE TRENDED OUR POPS HIER, BUT WANT TO SEE MORE SUSTAINED CORROBORATION BEFORE INTRODUCING LIKELY POPS. LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WE ARE SEEING ABOUT AN UPTICK IN THE AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND HIER FCST CONVECTIVE TEMPS SO MAX TEMPS WERE NUDGED HIER BY ABOUT 2-4F FROM WEDNESDAY. WE START LOSING OUR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY DAY, SO POPS ARE MUCH LOWER AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF DELMARVA ON FRIDAY DAY. AS THE 500MB RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN. 90 BY NEXT MONDAY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR OUR CWA. WE WILL ALSO HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH WE SUPPOSE SOME SYSTEMS COMING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MIGHT MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. CONFIDENCE AND TIMING ABOUT THIS ARE LESS THAN AVERAGE, SO WHERE WE DO HAVE POPS, THEY WERE KEPT PRETTY LOW. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY VFR CIGS BUT ISOLATED FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING... ESPECIALLY IF SKY COVER BECOMES SCT OR CLR. PATCHY MVFR CIGS IN NJ MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD KABE AND KMPO OVERNIGHT. MINOR MIXING WITH WIND WILL PROBABLY LIMIT FOG TO ONLY A COUPLE OF TAF LOCATIONS...MAINLY KRDG AND KMIV. NNE WIND G UNDER 15 KTS. CONFIDENCE ON ANY FOG RESTRICTION IS BELOW AVG AND CONFIDENCE ON CLEARING AFTER 06Z IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE. TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE EAST...BUT OVERALL FCST REMAINS SIMILAR WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. WINDS TUE WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY AT 10 TO 15 KTS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. NO WIND RELATED ISSUES EXPECTED. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH LESS IF ANY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. NO WIND RELATED ISSUES EXPECTED. && .MARINE... SCA FLAGS ARE UP FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DEL BAY. WINDS ARE GUSTING 20 TO 28 KTS. SEAS AT THE BUOYS WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 5 OR 6 FT TUE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME 5FT SEAS AT THE MOUTH OF THE DEL BAY ALSO...SO WE WILL KEEP THE SCA GOING OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. WEATHER...SCT SHOWERS. OUTLOOK... WHILE WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY TUESDAY EVENING, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS MIGHT LINGER ON THE OCEAN SIDE. THE ADVISORY WAS NOT EXTENDED AT THIS TIME BECAUSE CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH. BUT BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT, WE ARE EXPECTING BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BUILDS INTO AND THEN STARTS SETTLING SOUTH OF OUR CWA. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ***WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT OCCURRED*** CFW STATEMENT WAS UPDATED 921PM. THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES IN THIS JUNE TIDE CYCLE ARE OCCURRING THIS EVENING ALONG MOST OF THE ATLC NJ AND DE COASTS. FOR NJ AND DE ATLC COASTS: THIS EVENINGS ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WAS PREDICTED 0.2 FT BELOW MINOR THRESHOLD WITHOUT ANY IMPACT FROM PRESSURE AND WIND STRESS. WIDESPREAD MODERATE CF WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE ENTIRE NJ AND DE COASTS. ACY STORM TIDE WAS 7.50 FT AT 830PM A SURGE OF 1.75 FT AND IN THE MIDDLE OF THE THE MDT CF THRESHOLD. SANDY HOOK STORM TIDE...AT 7.97 FT OR .27 ABOVE MDT THRESHOLD AND A SURGE OF 1.45 FT AT 848 PM. CAPE MAY 8.18 FT AT 930 PM AND LEWES WAS AT 7.31 FT AT 930 PM. GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THIS EVENT. FORTUNATELY ONSHORE SWELL AND WIND WAVE IS MINIMAL AND SO THE PRIMARY IMPACT THIS EVENING IS THE EXPECTED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF THE TIDAL INUNDATION AFFECTED ROADS...WITH ANY RELATED PROPERTY DAMAGE PROBABLY MINIMAL. TIDAL FLOOD EPISODES SHOULD NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT ALONG THE DE AND NJ ATLC COASTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENINGS BUT EXCEEDENCE OF MINOR ADVISORY THRESHOLDS IS VERY HIGHLY PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY EVENING. IN FACT... THE LOWER HIGH TIDE CYCLE TUESDAY MORNING AROUND 9AM...MAY BE FLIRTING WITH THE MINOR THRESHOLD. BUT THE MAIN TIDAL FLOODING EVENTS WILL BE THE EVENING HIGH TIDES. PHILADELPHIA: THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER IS CONTINUING TO MODEL A MINOR EVENT WITHIN AN HOUR OF THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THE TIDES MAY RUN A BIT HIGHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM REEDY POINT TO PHILADELPHIA AND NEWBOLD. OUTLOOK... WHILE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ON TUESDAY EVENING, IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL REACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEANSIDE AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AS DBFOS GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE TOO RAMBUNCTIOUS. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES START SLIDING DOWNWARD ON TUESDAY SO BY WEDNESDAY WITH A LIGHTER FLOW, ALL AREAS MAY BE FREE OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. ON CHESAPEAKE BAY, WE ARE TAKING A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH AS CBFOS GUIDANCE IS ALREADY TOO HOT. WE SUPPOSE IF WE ARE WRONG, MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS MIGHT BE REACHED WITH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. && .RIP CURRENTS... 6 FT SEA...8 SEC PERIOD AND A SYNOPTIC WIND OF 0317 IN THE 15Z-18Z PERIOD TUESDAY SHOULD EASILY PRODUCE A MDT RISK OF DANGEROUS RIPS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE FULL MOON. DEWEY BEACH WATER TEMP THIS AFTN WAS 67F. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ070-071. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012>014-020>027. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ016>019. DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002>004. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR DEZ001. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GIGI |
| #516108 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:03 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 955 PM AST MON JUN 4 2012 .UPDATE...A RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. QUIET WEATHER AND SAHARAN DUST WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE SAHARAN DUST CONCENTRATIONS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOT TEMPERATURES AND WEAK WINDS AT LOW LEVELS WILL HELP TO PRODUCE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THAT MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST END OF PUERTO RICO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS TONIGHT. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST WILL CONT TO CAUSE VISIBILITIES RANGING BTWN 6 TO 8 SM. AFT 05/17Z AREAS OF TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN CENTRAL INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO WITH FQT LIGHTNING...PSBL SMALL HAIL AND LIFR CONDS...BUT LIKELY TO DISSIPATE BEFORE 05/22Z. LLVL WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE BLO 5 KFT THEN E-ENE LESS THAN 20 KTS BELOW 30 KFT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM AST MON JUN 4 2012/ SYNOPSIS...SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. RIDGE PATTERN WILL STRENGTHEN MID WEEK AND REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DISCUSSION...SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...PRODUCING HAZY SKIES...AND HOT CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SURPRISINGLY...SOME SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...MAINLY OVER THE MUNICIPALITIES OF OROCOVIS...JAYUYA...AND UTUADO. OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. FOR TOMORROW...A LINE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY...INCREASING SOMEWHAT THE MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS PUERTO RICO. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS FEATURE... ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY DRIER AIR...IS EXPECTED. AVIATION...NO WX EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 77 87 78 88 / 0 0 20 10 STT 77 88 80 90 / 0 10 30 20 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #516107 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:02 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 854 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SOUNDING DISCUSSION... THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR FLIGHT THIS EVENING. THE SOUNDING INDICATED A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO 850 MB. THERE WAS A SMALL INVERSION AROUND 820 MB. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE HAD A WESTERLY COMPONENT...FROM WSW TO WNW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO 1.30 INCHES...UP FROM 1.15 INCHES THIS MORNING. 11 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR ST. LOUIS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WESTWARD THROUGH KANSAS AND INTO COLORADO. LOCALLY...TEMPERATURES HAVE ONCE AGAIN RISEN INTO THE LOWER 90S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OVER 100 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. DISCUSSION... EXPECT WETTER CONDITIONS THIS WEEK AS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE LONGER WAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT DOMINATES THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD AS WELL. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO IMPACT THE GULF SOUTH. THE BEST COVERAGE FOR TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THUS...WILL CARRY A GRADIENT OF 50 POPS TO THE NORTH AND 25 POPS ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO COASTAL LA. THE MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH. HOWEVER...ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ROUGHLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 10/12 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP THE CONVECTIVE FOCUS OVER THE AREA FOR A COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE BEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH 40 TO 50 POPS ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. BY THURSDAY... THE DISSIPATING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD A BIT WHICH SHOULD KEEP BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. AS OF THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS...FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT DRY DAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED JUST OFF THE COAST. THUS...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CURRENTLY IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION...IF THE FRONT LINGERS FARTHER TO THE NORTH...THEN THE CURRENT POP FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD. ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM TEXAS. AS IT DOES SO...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL OPEN UP THE GULF BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN AND SET UP...BUT THE ECMWF IS A BIT WETTER WITH HIGHER POPS AND QPF ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH BOTH OF THESE SOLUTIONS COMPLETELY REASONABLE...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR THE WEEKEND. AVIATION... VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR OR ABOVE 040. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 020 AND POSSIBLY VSBYS 3-5 NM /LOWER AT KMCB/ ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH 14-15Z TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AGAIN AFTER MID MORNING TUESDAY...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF LOWER CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MARINE... BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE A NOCTURNAL COASTAL JET FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL RISE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...AND WILL INCLUDE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES TO COVER THIS THREAT. THE WINDS SHOULD EASE A BIT DURING THE DAY...SO THE HEADLINE WILL ONLY BE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL NEAR 15 KNOTS AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE RIVER...BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA. BEGINNING TUESDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA...WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS. DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...GREEN. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...NONE. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 71 90 70 90 / 10 40 40 50 BTR 73 92 74 92 / 10 30 30 50 ASD 73 91 74 90 / 10 30 40 50 MSY 75 91 75 90 / 10 30 30 40 GPT 75 89 74 89 / 10 30 40 50 PQL 72 91 72 90 / 10 30 40 50 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516106 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:02 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 952 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST...SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPDATED POP/WX ONCE AGAIN AS THE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED WEST AND DISSIPATED. TWEAKED NEAR TERM TEMP/DEW POINT TREND SLIGHTLY TO MATCH CURRENT OBS BETTER. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO WITH REGARD TO SHWR OUTLOOK FROM LAST UPDATE FOR TNGT...WITH ISOLD MENTION N AND SCT CNTRL AND DOWNEAST WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE QPF. A WEAK MID LVL S/WV ROTATING E TO W ARND THE N SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CNTRD JUST S OF NOVA SCOTIA VERY LATE TNGT INTO TUE COULD BRING MORE CVRG OF SHWRS SPCLY TUE MORN INTO ERLY AFTN. FOR NOW WITH THIS FEATURE....WE SHOW THE BEST CHC POPS OVR SE PTNS OF THE FA...USING GMOS FOR POPS AND QPF IN A SHWR REGIME WITH WEAK FORCING. SHWRS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH A LITTLE EARLY RELATIVE TO DIURNAL MAX HTG...DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN WHEN THE FA WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING S/WV ALF. OVRNGT TEMPS TNGT AND SPCLY HI TEMPS TUE WILL CONT ON THE COOL SIDE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST KEEPING REGION IN CYCLONIC FLOW INTO THURSDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12...GFS40...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POP GRIDS. FOR WIND WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GMOS DURING DAY AND GMOS AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS INITIALIZED WITH THE GMOS THEN HAVE ADJUSTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HIGHER. FOR QPF HAVE BLENDED THE GFS40...NAM80...SREF AND ECMWF. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEA BOARD MONDAY. HAVE INITIALIZED ALL GRIDS WITH GMOS. WILL ADJUST POP GRIDS PRIMARILY FOR SMOOTHING. HAVE ADJUSTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT END OF PERIOD HIGHER IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: APPEARS DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE IS SLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MVFR CIGS FROM KHUL NORTHWARD...BUT STILL THINK IT WILL HAPPEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE CIGS AT KBGR/KBHB SHOULD CONTINUE WELL WITHIN THE MVFR CATEGORY. TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE DURING THE DAY TUE TO LOW VFR MOST SITES BY MID AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONT ACROSS ALL MZS MOST OF TNGT. WE HAVE OPTD TO SPLIT OFF INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052 FROM THE SCA AT 08Z WITH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THERE DIMINISHING BLO SCA CRITERIA BY APPROX 4 AM EDT. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND/OR WV HTS AOA 5 FT SHOULD CONT OVR THE OUTER MZS THRU MOST OF THE DAY TUE...WITH THE SCA THERE SLATED TO END AT 22Z. WE USED A BLEND OF NAM12...GFS40 AND GMOS FOR WINDS AND WW3 FOR WV HTS...WITH THE TNGT PD AND TUE MORN PD ACTUALLY 1 TO 2 FT ABV WW3 GUIDANCE OVR THE OUTER WATERS BASED LATEST BUOY OBS WHICH WERE RUNNING SIG ABV WW3...THEN MERGING TOWARD A WW3/SWAN NAM WV GUIDANCE BY TUE EVE. SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 TO INITIALIZE WIND GRIDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THEN TRANSITION TO GMOS GRIDS. WILL REDUCE THE NAM12 WINDS BY 10 PERCENT DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. WAVES WILL USE SWAN NAM OUT TO THURSDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE WNA/4. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ052. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN/RUNYAN |
| #516103 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:57 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 947 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN OCEAN STORM WELL EAST OF CAPE COD WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WED THROUGH FRI...BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE...BUT SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED TO THE END OF THE WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE WILL LIKELY BRING WARMER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 10 PM UPDATE... EVALUATING UPSTREAM 0Z UPR AIR SOUNDINGS...LOW-MID LVL PROFILE IS FAIRLY MOIST ADIABATIC UP TO H6. YET NOTABLY LOW-LVLS AT THE SFC ARE IMPROVING WITH DRIER AIR ENTRAINING SWWD ADVECTING WITH THE NELY FLOW. VSBYS ARE BECOMING UNRESTRICTED AND CLOUD BASES ARE RISING AS SHOWER ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHES AND DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE MID 40S. BUT NOT READY TO PROCLAIM THE ALL CLEAR...RATHER MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE DWPT READINGS OBSERVED DURING MUCH OF THE DAY /MID-UPR 40S/. THERE IS STILL THE PLAUSIBILITY OF CLOUD BASES LOWERING AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP /GREATER CHCS WILL BE ALONG THE SHORES/. WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY AS THE LATEST UPSTREAM TRENDS DO INDICATE A GRADUAL DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS THROUGH ME INTO S NH. SFC WINDS UP TO H925 HAVE RELAXED. FEEL THIS TREND SHALL CONTINUE AS THE SFC LOW WELL OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF SEA ALLOWING THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE RGN TO RELAX. THIS ACTUALLY EMPHASIZES THE PLAUSIBILITY OF DETERIORATING VSBY CONDITIONS TONIGHT SHOULD WINDS BECOME CALM IN SUCH A MOIST AND COOLING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH WINDS ARE DIMINISHING...SWELL AND SURF REMAIN HIGH ALONG THE E SHORELINES CONSEQUENTIAL OF THE STRONG NELY FLOW EARLIER IN THE DAY /RESIDUAL ENERGY/. SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING DURING TONIGHT/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE OCEAN STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WHILE THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE VICINITY OF NOVA SCOTIA. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS WEAK IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW. TIMING THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BE DIFFICULT SO WE WILL HAVE CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUE SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT BUT A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...LASTING INTO TUE NIGHT. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY TUE...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COOL AS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S...EXCEPT UPPER 50S ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH LESS WIND. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER WED-FRI BUT NOT A WASHOUT * COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK * PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER WEATHER LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK DETAILS... WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH DISTANT OCEAN STORM WILL HAVE LIFTED WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HANG BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR EARLY JUNE...WITH WED BEING THE COOLEST DAY. WHILE A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED...COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME INSTABILITY FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE FOUND INLAND FROM THE COAST WHERE THERE WILL BE A BIT BETTER INSTABILITY AWAY FROM THE MARINE LAYER. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION...BUT THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS. LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH EAST OF OUR REGION. NONETHELESS...EXPECT A NICE WEEKEND WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER WELL INTO THE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS RISING HEIGHT FIELDS SHOULD LIMIT OR PREVENT ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY. MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HEIGHT FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SO THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST IS A POSSIBILITY. KEPT FORECAST DRY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT BUT PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE DISTANT INTERIOR. MOST OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR TUE...ESPECIALLY CT VALLEY. STRONGEST GUSTS TO 30 KT ACROSS NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE S. KBOS TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH IMPROVING CIGS DURING TUE. KBDL TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MAINLY LOW END VFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ON TUE. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WED THROUGH FRI...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DOMINATE ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SAT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. HAVE LET GALE WARNINGS EXPIRE AS THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED WITH WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECT SCA GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED DIMINISHING WIND TUE AND TUE NIGHT. HAZARDOUS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER OPEN WATERS THROUGH TUE...THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT LATE TUE NIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING MORE SCT TUE AND TUE NIGHT. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY SWELL MAY RESULT IN SCA FOR SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER-WATERS LINGERING INTO WED MORNING. THEREAFTER...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FOR MOST IF NOT THE REST OF THE PERIOD. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... * COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST EXPANDED TO NANTUCKET TONIGHT... NEW 12Z NAM FITS WITH PRIOR GUIDANCE FOR WIND FLOW THRU TONIGHT. CONFIDENT OF WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT AND HAVE CONTINUED WARNING AS WELL AS ADDED NANTUCKET. ONSHORE WIND AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING FOR COAST JUST EAST OF NANTUCKET. WE ADJUSTED SEAS ABOVE GUIDANCE SOME GIVEN OUR EXPERIENCE WITH EFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN NE WIND CASES. THE NE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO EASE A LITTLE IN THE FEW HOURS LEADING TO HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE COD. THE TIMING OF THAT EASING OF THE GRADIENT IS CRITICAL AS TO THE MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING WE WILL SEE. SINCE MODELS TEND TO BE A LITTLE FAST TO EASE OFF THE GRADIENT ON QUASI-STATIONARY COASTAL STORMS...WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT OF THE GRADIENT EASING NORTH OF BOSTON THAN SOUTH OF BOSTON. PRIOR TO ANY EASING OF THE GRADIENT THIS EVENING...WE ARE ANTICIPATING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIRECTLY ONSHORE AT ABOUT A 040 DEGREES DIRECTION. CONSIDERABLE FETCH AND DURATION SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL WAVE GENERATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS CLIMBING ANOTHER COUPLE OF FEET OR SO FROM PRESENT. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER FOR THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE LONGER PERIOD WAVES THAN LAST NIGHT AND THUS HIGHER ENERGY WAVE ACTION. TAKING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER...WE ARE ANTICIPATING COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR IN MAGNITUDE AS LAST NIGHT FOR THE SHORELINE NORTH OF BOSTON...AND PROBABLY SOMEWHAT MORE SIGNIFICANT FOR THE COASTLINE SOUTH OF BOSTON INCLUDING THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. WE ARE PROJECTING A STORM SURGE OF 1.3 TO 1.5 FEET AT THE TIME OF MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE FROM SALISBURY TO BOSTON. FROM BOSTON TO PLYMOUTH...WE ARE THINKING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 FEET. FOR NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORELINES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...WE ARE THINKING CLOSER TO 1.8 FEET AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. WE ARE PROJECTING SEAS OF GENERALLY 12 TO 15 FEET JUST A FEW MILES OFFSHORE OF THE COAST WITH PERIODS GENERALLY 9 TO 12 SECONDS. THE OTHER TIDE ISSUE OF CONSEQUENCE IS BEACH EROSION. GIVEN THE DURATION AND FETCH THAT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS...WE THINK BEACH EROSION WILL QUITE SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY FOR OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WHICH MAY BE MOST EXPOSED TO LARGE AND RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WAVES AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. AT LEAST SOME BEACH EROSION WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL WIND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. WE APPRECIATE ANY REAL TIME OR NEAR REAL TIME FEEDBACK ON TIDE IMPACTS VIA STORM REPORTER...WEB SPOTTER OR OTHER MEANS. TUE NIGHT... MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY AGAIN TUE NIGHT WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. WHILE THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER E WITH TIME...CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THREAT. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015- 016-019-022-024. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020. NH...NONE. RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ002- 004>007. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-231-236. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254- 255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256. && $$ |
| #516101 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:54 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 945 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN LATE THURSDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 945 PM MONDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS NOW MOVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC AND CAN BE SEEN AS A FINE LINE IN THE RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGES. THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING BUT SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH COULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SPOTTY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SO WILL CARRY 30% POPS ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. SKIES HAVE TEMPORARILY CLEARED OUT MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING AND WINDS HAVING DECOUPLED THUS RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS BEEN STRONG AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING FASTER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NC AND SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN NC A LITTLE LATER TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST. OUR CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ALREADY LOWER THAN MOS IN MOST LOCATIONS SO ALTHOUGH THE RAPID TEMPERATURE FALLS WILL SLOW ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE AREA...COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL THE TEMPERATURE TO CONTINUE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE BELOW ABOUT 600 MB THRU MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE ON THE CLOUDY SIDE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 7 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES DROP OFF AND UPPER HEIGHTS DROP SLIGHTLY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS TO THE MIDDLE 70S OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. GIVEN SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 12 G/KG...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THRU THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 PM MON...BOTH 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND MATCH UP WELL WITH HPC SURFACE FEATURES. DEEP UPPER TROF WILL LINGER ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY RIDGING THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A WEST-EAST STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GULF STATES TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER SO DID NOT MENTION. BY THE END OF THE WEEK A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER RIDGING WILL BRING A WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY WARMING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/... AS OF 600 PM MONDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY VFR FORECAST THIS EVENING OUTSIDE ANY STRAY SHOWERS WHERE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN ON CEILING HEIGHTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS NE LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN USUALLY FAVORS MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BUT THE GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE INCONCLUSIVE. THE GFS/LAMP AVIATION GUIDANCE WAS FORECASTING HIGH VFR CEILINGS WHILE THE NAM WAS FORECASTING WIDESPREAD IFR. THE NAM AVIATION GUIDANCE HAS KNOWN LOW BIAS SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS TREND AND FORECAST MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT/ AS OF 230 PM MON...VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST...BECOMING LIGHT WEST ON FRIDAY...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SATURDAY. ONLY CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/... AS OF 945 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING AND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT MOVING SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS AFTER 06Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT NORTHWEST WINDS TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW STRONG WILL BE THE POST FRONTAL NE FLOW BE? THE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REACH 15 KT BUT WINDS AT THE WEATHER FLOW SITE AT THE ALLIGATOR RIVER BRIDGE HAVE GUSTED TO 25 KT. THUS WILL MENTION WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. NE WINDS AT 15 GUSTING TO 20 KT WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER TIER OF THE COASTAL ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY. LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT/ AS OF 230 PM MON...12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WERE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND USED A 50/50 BLEND FOR THE WINDS. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS ONLY 5-10 KNOTS AND SEAS 1-2 FEET. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC/JME |
| #516099 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:42 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 400 PM HST MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. ENHANCED TRADE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE INTO TUESDAY. && .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW NEAR 19N153W...OR ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO. THIS LOW IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...WITH A WEAKENING FRONT FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS RANGING FROM NEAR 5KFT AT LIHUE TO NEAR 7KFT AT HILO. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AT HILO HAVE DROPPED ABOUT 5C OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATERS RANGE FROM 1.21 INCHES AT LIHUE TO 1.34 INCHES AT HILO...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE AMSU/SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z/18Z MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...SHOWING IT WEAKENING AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK NORTHWEST ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND. THE GFS INITIALIZED 500MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 2C COLDER THAN THE ECMWF IN THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW...BUT KEEPS IT FARTHER OFFSHORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW THIS MORNING WEAKENED DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD FLARE UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY FOR WINDWARD WATERS. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE... MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP IN THE CORE OF THE LOW INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS ELEVATED LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT HAS ALSO TIGHTENED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW. WINDS ACROSS BOTH MAUI AND BIG ISLAND SUMMITS ARE RUNNING NEAR THE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 30 MPH. WINDS ACROSS HALEAKALA HAVE DECREASED FROM THEIR MAXIMUM EARLIER TODAY...AND WE WILL REPLACE THE HIGH WIND WARNING WITH A WIND ADVISORY. BOTH OF THESE PRODUCTS WILL RUN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND WINDS START TO DIMINISH ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED LONGER INTO TUESDAY IF THE LOW DOES NOT WEAKEN AS FAST AS ANTICIPATED. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO STABILIZE BEHIND THE UPPER LOW...BUT RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE STATE WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FAR TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY...AND REMAIN IN THAT AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WINDS ACROSS THE STATE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY AND GUSTY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE THAT THE DIRECTION WILL VEER TO MORE OF A DUE EASTERLY DIRECTION BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS HINT AT A BRIEF MINIMUM IN WIND SPEEDS ON FRIDAY...BEFORE STRENGTHENING AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...12Z/18Z RUNS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW A LULL IN WINDS TODAY...AND WE HAVE REMAINED STRONG AND GUSTY AS EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS WITH BRIEF MVFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. AIRMET TANGO WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURB S THROUGH W OF MTNS...DUE TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ISLAND TERRAIN. A LOW ALOFT EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND HAS INCREASED NE WINDS ABOVE THE SUMMITS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. && .MARINE... LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADE WINDS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE DROPPED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT THE GRADIENT BETWEEN BUOY 51000 NORTHEAST OF THE STATE AND BUOY 51002 SOUTH OF THE STATE HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT STEADY. THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHANNELS AND TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS SUCH AS MAALAEA BAY AND NEAR SOUTH POINT...AND THIS WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR HALEAKALA SUMMIT-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL- KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS. && $$ |
| #516097 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:41 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 932 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ADJUSTED NEAR-TERM POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR WEAKENING ACTIVITY THAT IS MOVING SOUTH OF COLUMBIA. THE REMNANTS SHOULD ENTER THE ALLENDALE/HAMPTON/SCREVEN AREA BY MIDNIGHT. STILL WATCHING FOR ANOTHER WEAK MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE AREA CLOSER TO SUNRISE AS ANOTHER ROBUST SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MAINTAINED 20/30 PERCENT POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOMINATING BY SUNRISE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... TUESDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DESCEND SOUTHWARD... WHILE ABUNDANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSES THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN WITHIN DEEPER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. WILL INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE 40 PERCENT RANGE BY MIDDAY...WITH NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. SEVERAL FACTORS SUGGEST THAT STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ZONES. THE REGION WILL FALL WITHIN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ACCORDINGLY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR SKY COVER TRENDS...AS THICK CLOUDS COULD LIMIT DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT MID WEEK...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITHIN THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH. AS A RESULT...EXPECT FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOLID SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGHEST RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED SOUTH OF THE LINGERING FRONT. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITHIN NORTHEAST FLOW...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LIKELY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY...PUSHING THE SURFACE FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT/SUN. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE. WATCHING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TRYING TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE UPSTATE. INCOMING DATA SUGGESTS THIS WILL REMAIN LARGELY WEST OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. BEST PROBABILITIES FOR IMPACTS WILL BE AT KSAV FROM ROUGHLY 16-20Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION ATTM. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY AS A STALLED FRONT LINGERS OVER/NEAR THE AREA. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY MOST OF THE NIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 10-15 KTS ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 2-3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-4 FT BEYOND. TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...AS MUCH DEPENDS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LINGERING FRONT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODIC WIND/WAVE INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... BASED ON THE EXTRA-TROPICAL GUIDANCE...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL SC/GA COASTAL AREAS. THROUGH MID WEEK...PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES COULD PRODUCE MINOR SALT WATER FLOODING DURING EACH EVENING HIGH TIDE. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117- 119-139-141. SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>051. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #516095 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:32 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 926 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2012 ...Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms Tuesday Afternoon & Evening... .DISCUSSION... The 00 UTC regional surface analysis showed a "wavy" frontal system extending from SC, through the TN-KY border, to the KS-OK border. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a high amplitude ridge near the Front Range of the Rockies, with deep long wave troughs on either side of it. Since our forecast area was under deep northwest flow, our main forecast concern is any upstream short waves that could trigger deep moist convection. We think we`re okay for tonight, since there are no obvious nearby short waves or outflow boundaries, and since the troposphere was rather dry over our area (which helped choke off deep moist convection over most of our region this afternoon). The nearest short wave that may affect our area is a MCV (Mesoscale Convective Vortex left over from an MCS that developed late last night) that was translating southeastward near the AR-MS border, and appears to be handled reasonably well so far by the latest NWP guidance. The combination of this short wave and the approaching surface front are likely to combine and become the primary focus for ample deep moist convection Tuesday afternoon. Unlike today, the latest NWP guidance indicates the boundary layer will remain sufficiently moist to maintain a very unstable airmass over our region, with SBCAPE approaching 3000 J/Kg. As for the probability of severe storms Tuesday, these high CAPE values would of course be a positive factor, as would the projected dewpoints in the lower 70s. The main negative factor will likely be the lack- luster 0-6km vertical wind shear magnitude, which the NAM only forecasts to be around 30 KT (mainly due to 35 KT westerlies at 500 mb). This wind field would actually be weaker than what we observed today, and is on the low end of what we would look for storm organization. Also, the NAM forecast 700-500 mb lapse rates are about 6 deg/km, which is fair but not as steep as what we saw earlier this warm season. Our objective guidance is forecasting severe storm chances (within 25 miles of a point) Tuesday to be in the 5 to 15% range for our forecast area, which is right in line with the SPC subjective probabilities. These numbers appear to make sense given the favorable thermodynamics but marginal kinematics. The afternoon forecast package is mostly on track this evening, though we did nudge the winds over our coastal waters up slightly based on recent observations. The only PoP we included overnight was for after 06 UTC for the northern fringes of our region, in case some outflow boundary spawns storms that just reach this area before dawn. && .AVIATION... A brief period of MVFR VSBYs will be possible at ABY, VLD and TLH in the pre-dawn hours. Then we expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop on Tuesday impacting all terminals. Some of the storms could be strong to severe. Away from convection winds will be westerly around 15 kts with higher gusts. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...None. FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #516094 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:21 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 816 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE OVER E GULF...CONTINUING THE S TO SW WINDS OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. EVENING LCH SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIP H2O OF 1.47"...MOSTLY FROM THE S FLOW BRINGING THE 1000-850MB MARINE LAYER OVER THE REGION. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WINDS CONTINUE NEAR 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXPECTING TO DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT...BUT LIKELY REMAIN NEAR 5 MPH FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S THIS EVENING WILL FALL ANOTHER 8-10 DEGREES TOWARDS MORNING TO THE LOWER/MID 70S. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THIS...THUS NO UPDATES NEEDED. DML && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. AVIATION... VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW...WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL BLIP BEING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PREVIOUS FCST CARRIED A TEMPO AT KAEX...AND THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD BASED ON A BLEND OF LATEST GUIDANCE/PERSISTENCE. WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT INCLUDING AT LEAST VICINITY CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE...BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH PREVAILING VFR AMID FEW-SCT CU AND GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS. 13 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF RIDGES WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CU HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. TO THE NORTH...A WEAK COOL FRONT IS DRAPED OVER OVER OK/AR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS LOOKS TO BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER. TONIGHT WILL SEE TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS A BIT WARMER ALONG THE COAST BY SUNRISE. EARLY MRNG FOG WILL BURN-OFF AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH OVER THE SE GULF RETREATS BACK TO THE EAST AS THE FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH TMRW AFTN. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK A DEGREE OR TWO. ISOLATED SHOWERS TMRW AFTN/EVE TIME FRAME AS GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL AND THE COMBINATION OF THE SEA BREEZE...MOISTURE... AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT. ON WEDNESDAY THE FRONT GETS A BIT CLOSER AND MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE YUCATAN WILL PUSH INTO SE TX AND SRN LA. THE FRONT OVER AR IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE COAST BEFORE FALLING APART ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR STORMS DRG THE AFTERNOON HRS. AFTN TEMPS WILL FALL A BIT MORE. THIS PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL BACK OFF A BIT BUT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 74 90 72 90 73 / 10 20 20 40 20 KBPT 75 91 74 89 73 / 10 20 20 40 20 KAEX 71 91 71 90 69 / 10 20 20 40 20 KLFT 72 90 72 90 72 / 10 20 20 40 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516093 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:20 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 918 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT-TUE...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOW MINS MAINLY BETWEEN 70 AND 76 AREAWIDE. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA FROM THE GULF WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT MINS UP. GUSTY SOUTHWEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIE DOWN SLOWLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN ELEVATED 5-10 KTS MOST AREAS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG A BIT FARTHER INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BUT REMAIN NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TUE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS TIME WITH ISOLD-SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS UNIFORMLY ABOVE 90 DUE TO LACK OF A "COOLING" EAST COAST BREEZE ONCE AGAIN. && .AVIATION...VFR...EXCEPT MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME MVFR TEMPO CIGS LATE OVERNIGHT/TWD DAYBREAK. && .MARINE...TONIGHT-TUE...WIND SURGE FCST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT RESPONSIBLE FOR ISSUANCE OF SCA FOR WINDS THRU EARLY TUE MORNING NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT NEAR SHORE WATERS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. SW/W WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND 10-15 KTS IN THE AFTN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AWAY FROM THE COAST. SEAS MAY INCREASE TO 2-4 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH SOME ISOLD 5 FT SETS WELL OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING. && .FIRE WEATHER...TUE...CONDITIONS SHOW GENERALLY HIGHER RH...HOWEVER GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ |
| #516092 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:11 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 903 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWING A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN NC...AND THIS HAS BEEN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EARLIER THIS EVENING. OBS SHOWED GUSTS TO 30-35 KT AT KORF/KPHF W/ SEVERAL SPOTTER REPORTS OF PEA-SIZED HAIL W/ THE STORMS. CONVECTION NOW WEAKENING AND MAINLY JUST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. FOR LATER TONIGHT...AS WV SATELLITE SHOWS NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHING SOUTH FROM OHIO/MICHIGAN INTO WV/KY...AND SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL NNE FLOW...WILL KEEP AT LEAST 20% POPS GOING OVERNIGHT...WITH 30% POPS FOR THE EASTERN SHORE DUE TO ONGOING SHOWERS OVER SE PA/NJ/DEL. EXPECT SKIES TO AVG OUT VARIABLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM NE TO SW AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENLY BE IN THE MID-UPR 50S (LOCALLY LWR 60S FAR SE VA/NE NC COAST). THE COOL TEMPS WILL BE DUE TO COLD ADVECTION RATHER THAN RADIATIONAL COOLING AS COOL AIR AN CLOUDS FILTER DOWN FROM THE NE STATES. ON TUE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST...GIVEN TREND FOR HIGHER POPS DOWN THE ERN SHORE OVERNIGHT...WILL CARRY 30% POPS IN THE MRNG HRS FOR MUCH OF E/SE VA/NE NC...WITH 20% POPS ELSEWHERE. ALSO BUMPED SKY COVER UP A BIT AS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MSTR AND NE FLOW SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. COMBO OF COLD POOL ALOFT AND ANY HEATING FROM STRONG JUNE SUN SHUD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR. LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR THUNDER...SO KEPT IT OUT OF GRIDS ATTM. QUITE COOL FRO JUNE...WITH H85 TEMPS ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE U60S NEAR THE WATER TO L70S WEST OF CHES BAY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOWS TUESDAY IN THE 50S. SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE SEEN FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS YET ADDITIONAL TROFS PROGGED TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP CHC FOR MAINLY DIURNAL POPS IN FORECAST EACH DAY. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH PERIOD. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE L-M70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT 55-60. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE M-U70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY QUIET WX WITH WARMING TEMPS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. UPR-LVL TROF PRESENT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK FINALLY PULLS OFFSHORE FRI. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE TROF THU NGT...BUT NOTICEABLE LACK IN MOISTURE SHUD KEEP MOST AREAS DRY. HEIGHTS RISE THRU THE DAY FRI AS UPR-LVL RIDGE BLDS OVR THE EASTERN CONUS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER A MSTLY/PRTLY SNY SKY. SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE REGION WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING...HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON SAT AND APPROACHING 90 ON SUN. UPR-LVL RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE FOR ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S.COAST WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED TSTMS. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TONIGHT TO DIE OFF BY MIDNIGHT...THEN MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION PSBL ON TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING. NE FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP SCT/BKN LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE MID ATL REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY NE THROUGH TUESDAY AND BECOME GUSTY 20 KT BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN US MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE. && .MARINE... WEAK CAA SURGE HAS BEGUN OVR NORTHERN BAY ZONES AS OF 19Z...AND IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTH OVR THE NEXT FEW HRS. HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH INHERITED SCA HAZARDS OVR THE BAY AND RIVERS THRU THIS EVNG...WITH SCA CONTINUING THRU MID MRNG TUE AS A SECONDARY SURGE IS EXPECTED ERLY TUE MRNG FOLLOWING A LULL IN THE WNDS OVRNGT. WATER TEMPS IN THE 70S IN THE BAY AND RIVERS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DECENT MIXING. NW WNDS WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO N THEN NE. NOT EXPECTING WNDS TO REACH SCA THRESHOLDS OVR THE SOUND. OVR COASTAL WATERS...SEAS WILL BLD FROM 3 TO 4 FT THIS EVNG THEN 5-6 FT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TNGT INTO TUE AS NORTHEASTERLY SWELL INCREASES. 5 FT SEAS MAY PERSIST INTO TUE NGT OVR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON EXTENDING HAZARDS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SEAS TUE AFTN. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT AND WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE AREA WED AND THU WILL LEAD TO SUB-SCA CONDS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 TO 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A FULL MOON AND ONSHORE FLOW. THE LATEST EXTRATROPICAL GUIDANCE HAS MINOR THRESHOLDS BEING MET OVER PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST SIDE OF THE LWR EASTERN SHORE...THE VIRGINIA ATLANTIC COAST...CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ALSO...A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. WATER LEVELS DURING TUESDAY EVENINGS HIGH TIDE WILL BE AROUND MINOR STAGE FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS DURING HIGH TIDE BASED ON THE LATEST MDL GUIDANCE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ024- 025. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ102. VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ095- 097>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>637. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632- 634-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654- 656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650- 652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB |
| #516091 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:51 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 849 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COASTS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. BEHIND IT, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY, WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THEN SETTLE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 605 PM PRELIM ESTF LEGACY PRODUCT DROPPED THE MENTION OF THUNDER. RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT CHANGES INCLUDED ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AND POPS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT. SO THE SHOWERY UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE UPPER/COLD LOW CIRCULATING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. LOCAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE MOST OF THE SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT IN PA AND IN THE NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS. NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING REPORTS SINCE ABOUT 18Z. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LOW 50S MOST OTHER AREAS. WINDS WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... MUCH OF THE SAME WEATHER ON TUESDAY AS WAS FOR TODAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY...BUT ENOUGH COLD AIR LINGERS ALOFT AND MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. POPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW...WITH THE NORTHERN AREAS MORE FAVORED...BEING CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE WILL REMAIN COOL WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. A FEW DOWNPOURS/GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR TUE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE GFS INITIALIZATION WAS SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB SO BY THIS TIME PERIOD WE LEANED MORE TOWARD ITS DIRECTION. THERE WILL BE A SLOW UNRAVELING OF THE REX BLOCK GOING FORWARD WITH WARMER WEATHER RETURNING AS THE LONG TERM PROGRESSES. SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND TUESDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTING ANY THUNDER. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK CAPABLE OF TRAPPING IN CLOUDS BELOW THE WEAK INVERSION SO ARE GOING WITH A CLEAR(ER) SOLUTION OVERNIGHT. THUS WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER GFS MOS MINS ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE RADIATING PARTS OF THE SERN PART OF OUR CWA. LESS CONFIDENCE ABOUT MINS NORTHWEST. MORE SELF DESTRUCT SUN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THE FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS WELL AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVES ARE FAVORING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA MORE SO THAN THE SOUTHEAST. THE FORECAST CONVECTIVE AND 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE TO MAX TEMPS. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THUNDER POSSIBLE EARLY. SOME AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS BEGINNING SO WE UPPED THE MINS ABOUT A CATEGORY FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. ON THURSDAY DAY, THE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS MORE UNIVERSALLY PLACED IN OUR CWA PLUS THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FCST QVEC CONVERGENCE AS THE SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED THROUGH THE BACK DOOR IN THE SREF POPS AS THEY ARE HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY. WE TRENDED OUR POPS HIER, BUT WANT TO SEE MORE SUSTAINED CORROBORATION BEFORE INTRODUCING LIKELY POPS. LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WE ARE SEEING ABOUT AN UPTICK IN THE AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND HIER FCST CONVECTIVE TEMPS SO MAX TEMPS WERE NUDGED HIER BY ABOUT 2-4F FROM WEDNESDAY. WE START LOSING OUR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY DAY, SO POPS ARE MUCH LOWER AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF DELMARVA ON FRIDAY DAY. AS THE 500MB RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN. 90 BY NEXT MONDAY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR OUR CWA. WE WILL ALSO HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH WE SUPPOSE SOME SYSTEMS COMING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MIGHT MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. CONFIDENCE AND TIMING ABOUT THIS ARE LESS THAN AVERAGE, SO WHERE WE DO HAVE POPS, THEY WERE KEPT PRETTY LOW. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH 04Z...SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS. OCNLY A SHOWER BRINGS IFR CIGS OR VSBYS TO ONE OF THE TERMINALS WITH A FEW DOWNPOURS. THESE LOWER CONDS DO NOT LAST VERY LONG HOWEVER. NNE WIND OCNL G 15 KTS. OVERNIGHT AFTER 04Z...MOSTLY VFR CIGS BUT ISOLATED FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF SKY COVER BECOMES SCT OR CLR. MIXING WITH WIND WILL PROBABLY LIMIT FOG TO ONLY A COUPLE OF TAF LOCATIONS...MAINLY KRDG AND KMIV. CONFIDENCE ON ANY FOG RESTRICTION IS BELOW AVG AND CONFIDENCE ON CLEARING AFTER 06Z IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE. TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE EAST...BUT OVERALL FCST REMAINS SIMILAR WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. WINDS TUE WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY AT 10 TO 15 KTS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. NO WIND RELATED ISSUES EXPECTED. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH LESS IF ANY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. NO WIND RELATED ISSUES EXPECTED. && .MARINE... SCA FLAGS ARE UP FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DEL BAY. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KTS AS OF MID-AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUE. SEAS AT THE BUOYS WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 5 OR 6 FT TUE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME 5FT SEAS AT THE MOUTH OF THE DEL BAY ALSO...SO WE WILL KEEP THE SCA GOING OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. WEATHER...SHOWERY WITH ISOLATED TSTM. OUTLOOK... WHILE WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY TUESDAY EVENING, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS MIGHT LINGER ON THE OCEAN SIDE. THE ADVISORY WAS NOT EXTENDED AT THIS TIME BECAUSE CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH. BUT BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT, WE ARE EXPECTING BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BUILDS INTO AND THEN STARTS SETTLING SOUTH OF OUR CWA. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ***WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT DEVELOPING*** CFW STATEMENT WAS UPDATED 739PM. THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES IN THIS JUNE TIDE CYCLE ARE OCCURRING THIS EVENING ALONG MOST OF THE ATLC NJ AND DE COASTS. FOR NJ AND DE ATLC COASTS: THIS EVENINGS ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WAS PREDICTED 0.2 FT BELOW MINOR THRESHOLD WITHOUT ANY IMPACT FROM PRESSURE AND WIND STRESS. WIDESPREAD MODERATE CF WAS NOW OCCURRING OR IMMINENT ALONG THE ENTIRE NJ AND DE COASTS. THE NATURALLY HIGH ASTRO TIDE COMBINED WITH A STEADY OR SLIGHTLY INCREASING POSITIVE 1.33 TO 1.7 SURGE DEPARTURES AT 815 PM DUE TO A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A SUBSTANTIAL MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EPISODE THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE NJ AND NOW ABOUT TO BE DEVELOPING DE COAST. ACY STORM TIDE WAS 7.50 FT AT 830PM A SURGE OF 1.75 FT AND IN THE MIDDLE OF THE THE MDT CF THRESHOLD. SANDY HOOK IS MDT NOW...AT 7.96 FT OR .26 ABOVE MDT THRESHOLD AND A SURGE OF 1.42 FT AT 830 PM. CAPE MAY AND LEWES ARE ALMOST MDT CF ATTM. GFS I THINK IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THIS EVENT. FORTUNATELY ONSHORE SWELL AND WIND WAVE IS MINIMAL AND SO THE PRIMARY IMPACT THIS EVENING IS THE EXPECTED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF THE TIDAL INUNDATION AFFECTED ROADS...WITH ANY RELATED PROPERTY DAMAGE PROBABLY MINIMAL. TIDAL FLOOD EPISODES SHOULD NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT ALONG THE DE AND NJ ATLC COASTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENINGS BUT EXCEEDENCE OF MINOR ADVISORY THRESHOLDS IS HIGHLYN PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY EVENING. IN FACT... THE LOWER HIGH TIDE CYCLE TUESDAY MORNING AROUND 9AM...MAY BE FLIRTING WITH THE MINRO THRESHOLD. BUT THE MAIN TIDAL FLOODING EVENTS WILL BE THE EVENING HIGH TIDES. PHILADELPHIA: THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER IS CONTINUING TO MODEL A MINOR EVENT WITHIN AN HOUR OF THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THE TIDES MAY RUN A BIT HIGHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM REEDY POINT TO PHILADELPHIA AND NEWBOLD. OUTLOOK... WHILE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ON TUESDAY EVENING, IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL REACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEANSIDE AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AS DBFOS GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE TOO RAMBUNCTIOUS. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES START SLIDING DOWNWARD ON TUESDAY SO BY WEDNESDAY WITH A LIGHTER FLOW, ALL AREAS MAY BE FREE OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. ON CHESAPEAKE BAY, WE ARE TAKING A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH AS CBFOS GUIDANCE IS ALREADY TOO HOT. WE SUPPOSE IF WE ARE WRONG, MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS MIGHT BE REACHED WITH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. && .RIP CURRENTS... 6 FT SEA...8 SEC PERIOD AND A SYNOPTIC WIND OF 0317 IN THE 15Z-18Z PERIOD TUESDAY SHOULD EASILY PRODUCE A MDT RISK OF DANGEROUS RIPS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE FULL MOON. DEWEY BEACH WATER TEMP THIS AFTN WAS 67F. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ070-071. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012>014-020>027. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ016>019. DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002>004. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR DEZ001. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GIGI |
| #516090 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:36 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 831 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA...BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES HAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAVE AFFECTED OUR WEATHER OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS MOST AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST...CAUSING MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALREADY MOVING TOWARD THE MASON-DIXON LINE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEARBY...WUD XPCT POP-UP SHRA TO CONT IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING. THEREFORE...POPS WONT BE ENTIRELY DIURNAL IN NATURE TMRW...SKEWED A LTL ERLR DUE TO THE S/WV. POPS MOSTLY IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE. TMRW WL BE THE COOLEST DAY AND HV ABT THE LOWEST CAPES OF THE WEEK...SO WL GO W/O THUNDER MENTIONED IN THE GRIDS. GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL STILL PSBL IN THE TALLER SHOWERS. MOS TEMPS W/IN REASON AND A BLEND ACCEPTED. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A DIURNAL TREND IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS /OCCURRING FROM MIDDAY TO THE EARLY EVENING...CLEARING DURING THE NIGHT/ THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS COOLER AIR INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. GENERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS OF NOW...IF ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER/SEVERE POTENTIAL IS ANTICIPATED THAT DETAIL WILL BE PROVIDED BY LATER FORECASTS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DRIFT EAST...DISPLACING THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD IN THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. FLOW WILL SHIFT WLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE...BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WL NOT HV ANY PCPN RELATED RESTRICTIONS FCST. CIGS MAY DROP BHD A S/WV OVNGT...BUT NO LOWER THAN MVFR. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /AND SHORT-LIVED LIMITED FLIGHT CONDITIONS/ CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. NOCTURNAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP KEEP FOG FROM FORMING...THOUGH FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH EXPECTED CLEAR NIGHTS. && .MARINE... WINDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER PRESSURE SURGE IS EXPECTED BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY FOR THESE AREAS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE PRESSURE SURGE. LIGHT SLY/SWLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE WIND SHIFTS WESTERLY. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY THE WEEKEND. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO DECREASE TOWARD NORMAL EARLY THIS EVENING. NO COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE TUESDAY. ET SURGE AND CBOFS BOTH SUGGEST INCREASING ANOMALIES OVER NEXT CPL DAYS. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537- 539>541-543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ |
| #516089 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:30 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 745 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE REGION. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 745 PM MONDAY...AT THE MOMENT THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER NVA...IE. DECENT AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE. EVEN WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED ENE TO WSW...PARTIALLY ACROSS THE AREA...THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE EXITING JET WILL KEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT NULL TO POSSIBLY ISOLATED DURING LATE TONIGHT. THE DYNAMICS FROM A S/W TROF OR VORT PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE NE STATES...WILL COME INTO PLAY LATER TONIGHT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS OF TUESDAY. HAVE INDICATED INCREASING CHANCE POPS TOWARD SUNRISE...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO TUESDAY. CURRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST LOOKS AOK...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TWEAKING NEEDED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 355 PM MONDAY...COMPLEX AND MUDDLED FORECAST DUE TO TIMING OF UPPER IMPULSES MOVING RATHER SWIFTLY DOWN THE WEST PORTIONS OF AN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE...AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MAY STALL OVER OUR VERY SOUTHERN ZONES. ONE IMPULSE OVER ILLINOIS PRESENTLY WILL DROP SE IMPACTING OUR ZONES WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY MORNING AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY IN AN E-W FASHION SETTLES...WE MAY SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA THROUGH TUESDAY...PERHAPS FAVORED OVER SC. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN 4-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUE/WED...WHEREAS MIN TEMPS DUR TO CLOUDS COULD HOLD NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND HIGH TIDE...BUT AFTER THIS ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL WANE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. ON THURSDAY. LOCALLY THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO BELOW CLIMO TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE FURTHER MODULATED BY THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER ACTING TO INHIBIT INSOLATION. VERY SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY MAINLY EARLY IN THE DAY. ONE FINAL PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH ACTING TO SWING IT OFF THE COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY CROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS OR BE A BIT FURTHER EAST. EITHER WAY THE COOL SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL NOT BEAR MUCH OR ANY INSTABILITY SO ANY PRECIP GENERATED WILL EITHER BE STRATIFORM OR SHALLOW CONVECTION AND NOT LEAD TO APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS AT ALL ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY IS STARTING TO LOOK DRIER DUE THE THE FRONT SLIPPING SO FAR TO THE SOUTH. THE SECOND PORTION OF THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY ON WILL FEATURE MUCH DIFFERENT WEATHER. THE EXIT OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW BUILDING HEIGHTS FROM THE WEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIMILARLY SHIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO AN OFFSHORE POSITION. SKY COVER SHOULD IMPROVE AND TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT TO CLIMO OR ABOVE. DEWPOINTS MUCH MORE TYPICAL OF JUNE WILL ALSO BE BACK IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 00Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF POTENTIAL BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS FROM 06Z TO 12Z. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ATTM...THE PROBABILITY OF ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE BEING IMPACTED IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT OVERNIGHT. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE ST DEVELOPMENT IN THE 06Z TO 12Z WINDOW AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRIER AIR UPSTREAM WILL NOT MAKE IT TO AREA TAF SITES AS WINDS RAPIDLY GO NE AFTER FROPA. IF THIS OCCURS...IT IS MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE FRONTAL INVERSION MAY ALLOW IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT AREA TAF SITES. FOR NOW...IFR CIGS ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AS THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY DOES NOT DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY AFTER FROPA. A PROB 30 GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE 18Z TO 24Z WINDOW FOR -TSRA AT THE SC TAF LOCATIONS AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THAT PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORMS IN THE AREA. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 745 PM MONDAY...SFC COLD FRONT OR LETS JUST CALL IT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY....WILL SNAKE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT CROSSING THE MOST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. AS MENTIONED...NO SURGE BEHIND THIS FRONT...JUST A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE WITH OVERALL WIND SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS WITH DOMINATE PERIODS OF 5 SECONDS. AN UNDERLYING 1 FOOT ESE SWELL AT 13-15 SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 355 PM MONDAY...VARIABLE BUT LIGHT WINDS INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE WATERS. BY TUESDAY AFTN PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL...VEERING TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH ONE LOW PRESSURE WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY...AND PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA...MOUNTING NE WINDS IN RESPONSE COULD BRING SEAS TO A 4-5 FOOT RANGE N OF CAPE FEAR AND OVER THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY...BUT ADVISORIES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE NEEDED...BUT CAUTIONARY STATEMENT POTENTIALLY MAY BE. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH DAY OVER THE WATERS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 355 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING A LIGHT ONSHORE/EASTERLY WIND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NE VS SOUTHEAST HINGING UPON WHETHER OR NOT A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTH. EITHER WAY WIND SPEED WILL BE CAPPED AT 10KT OR SO AND THE RESULTING SEAS QUITE SMALL IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE SWELL. THE EXIT OF THE LOW PAIRED WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH ON FRIDAY WILL BACK WINDS TO N OR NW AND COULD RESULT IN A SHORT LIVED INCREASE IN SPEED OF 5 KT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST AND QUITE VARIABLE ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY FINDS ITSELF CENTERED OFFSHORE FOR A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT LOCALLY LATE IN THE DAY OR BY NIGHTTIME. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #516088 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:27 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 814 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... CENTER OF UPPER CLOSED LOW PULLING OFF THEN NEW ENGLAND COAST ATTM. SHOWERS PRODUCING MEASURABLE PRECIP HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO A FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A COUPLE ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES SET TO ALSO PIVOT IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...SO KEPT SCT COVERAGE IN FOR THIS EVENING...THEN ONLY ISOLD COVERAGE OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOSS OF SFC- BASED INSTABILITY. LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE...MOSTLY UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. JUDGING FROM STRENGTH OF UPSTREAM NE FLOW AND WET BULB TEMPS OVER NEW ENGLAND...THIS MAY END UP BEING A BIT TOO COOL. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ISOLD AM SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME SCT TO NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON VIA INCREASED SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM ANOTHER VORT MAX PIVOTING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WHICH SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST S OF NOVA SCOTIA AT THAT TIME. BEST AREAL COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE INLAND...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SPARK A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FROM NYC WEST INTO NE NJ. HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THEN THOSE OF TODAY...65-70. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD SOUTHWARD TUE NIGHT...WHICH ALONG WITH LOSS OD DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BRING AN END TO SHOWERS TUE NIGHT. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TOUGH TO TIME ANY INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE TROUGH. ANY OF THESE FEATURES COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DIURNAL PRECIP EXPECTED THIS TIME FRAME DURING MAX HEATING...INCREASED INSTABILITY. HIGHEST COVERAGE WOULD BE OVER THE INTERIOR DUE TO THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY. RIDGE BUILDS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY THIS TIME FRAME...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN CHECK FOR MAINLY SHOWERS AND NOT MUCH THUNDER. AS FOR TEMPS...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS. HOWEVER...WITH RIDGE BUILDING...AIR MASS WARMS AND WE SHOULD SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE MOVES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EARLY EVENING WITH DRYING EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY LATE THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AT TIMES EARLY THIS EVENING BUT COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN TAF. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERALLY CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...BUT TOO FAR OUT AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND OR LESS THAN 10 KT SUSTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER IN THE DAY. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND ON TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY BE LESS FREQUENT THAN FORECAST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND ON TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY BE LESS FREQUENT THAN FORECAST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND ON TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY BE LESS FREQUENT THAN FORECAST. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND ON TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY BE LESS FREQUENT THAN FORECAST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND ON TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY BE LESS FREQUENT THAN FORECAST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND ON TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY BE LESS FREQUENT THAN FORECAST. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE WITH ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...MAINLY IN THE AFT/EARLY EVE HOURS. .SATURDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO WINDS/SEAS AS CONDS WERE SLIGHTLY HIGH TO START...MAINLY OVER WESTERN OCEAN WATERS. NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVE...SO SCA FOR MOST OF THE WATERS LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ADDED PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS TO THE ADVY AS WELL DUE TO EXPOSED NE FETCH...BUT REMOVED WRN LI SOUND FROM THE ADVY AS GUSTS THERE SHOULD COME UP SHORT. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE ON TUE...BUT LINGERING OCEAN SEAS OVER 5 FT LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF TUE...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE EVENING OUT EAST. DID NOT YET EXTEND SCA FOR THE ERN WATERS DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. WEAK FLOW AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... SIGNIFICANT AREA QPF OVER 1/2 INCH NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH MAINLY SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY. LOCAL DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... HAVE UPGRADED PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVSY TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WITH A MODERATE NE FLOW PILING WATER INTO WESTERN LI SOUND AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLANDS SOUTH SHORE BAYS. WAS ON THE FENCE...BUT BASED ON LATEST OBS AND FORECAST DATA AND THE FACT THAT THE LAST 2 NIGHT HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW TENTHS SHY OF MODERATE LEVELS...THINK A FEW SPOTS IN ALONG THE SHORELINES OF EACH OF THESE AREAS WILL TOUCH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED MODERATE BENCHMARKS. THE FREEPORT GAUGE WAS ALREADY REACHING MINOR LEVELS 2 HOURS BEFORE HIGH TIDE. ADVSY REMAINS UNCHANGED ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR TIDAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT...BEFORE TIDAL LEVELS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ009. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ010. NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ072- 074-075-079>081. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-073- 176-177. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ178- 179. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ078. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ006. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ |
| #516086 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:23 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 719 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. && .AVIATION... VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW...WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL BLIP BEING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PREVIOUS FCST CARRIED A TEMPO AT KAEX...AND THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD BASED ON A BLEND OF LATEST GUIDANCE/PERSISTENCE. WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT INCLUDING AT LEAST VICINITY CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE...BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH PREVAILING VFR AMID FEW-SCT CU AND GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS. 13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF RIDGES WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CU HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. TO THE NORTH...A WEAK COOL FRONT IS DRAPED OVER OVER OK/AR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS LOOKS TO BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER. TONIGHT WILL SEE TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS A BIT WARMER ALONG THE COAST BY SUNRISE. EARLY MRNG FOG WILL BURN-OFF AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH OVER THE SE GULF RETREATS BACK TO THE EAST AS THE FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH TMRW AFTN. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK A DEGREE OR TWO. ISOLATED SHOWERS TMRW AFTN/EVE TIME FRAME AS GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL AND THE COMBINATION OF THE SEA BREEZE...MOISTURE... AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT. ON WEDNESDAY THE FRONT GETS A BIT CLOSER AND MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE YUCATAN WILL PUSH INTO SE TX AND SRN LA. THE FRONT OVER AR IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE COAST BEFORE FALLING APART ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR STORMS DRG THE AFTERNOON HRS. AFTN TEMPS WILL FALL A BIT MORE. THIS PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL BACK OFF A BIT BUT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 74 90 72 90 73 / 10 20 20 40 20 KBPT 75 91 74 89 73 / 10 20 20 40 20 KAEX 71 91 71 90 69 / 10 20 20 40 20 KLFT 72 90 72 90 72 / 10 20 20 40 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516084 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:06 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 700 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .AVIATION (05.00Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 05.12Z. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. /13 && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROF PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROF ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUE TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS FEATURE...THE SURFACE ANALYSIS IS COMPLEX WITH TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION...THE FIRST OF WHICH HAS MOVED TO NEAR THE COAST WHILE THE SECOND HAS ADVANCED MORE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. BASED ON THE LATEST RUC HRRR...EXPECT THAT THE FIRST STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WILL RETURN SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT DUE TO SYNOPTIC SCALE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DUE FROM A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. ADDING TO THE COMPLEX MIX IS A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX...MCV...SEEN IN THE SATELLITE LOOP OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS THAT HAS RECENTLY LED TO VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE RUC HRRR DEVELOPS THIS CONVECTION INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...MCS...WHICH LATER WEAKENS WHILE ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BY LATE THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR WEAKENING CONVECTION CONTINUING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A COMPLEX BLEND OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROF MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH AT LEAST ONE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER DEPENDING ON HOW THE OVERNIGHT MCS EVOLVES...LEADS TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MCV IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO HAVE MODERATE DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS WITH A 10C DEWPOINT DEPRESSION NOTED AT 700 MB. THIS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL AID IN ENHANCING DOWNDRAFTS...ALOFT WITH SUBCLOUD EVAPORATION. 0-1 KM MLCAPES INCREASE TO NEAR 2500 J/KG...POSSIBLY HIGHER AROUND 3000...AND WITH THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR SEE CONTINUE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE HIGHEST POPS SHIFT GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROF AND WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WILL STAY WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FURTHER INLAND. 0-1 KM MLCAPES AGAIN INCREASE TO NEAR 2500 J/KG THOUGH THIS BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES DUE TO DECREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE INTERIOR PORTION. MAY AGAIN SEE SOME STRONG STORMS ON WEDNESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE LONGWAVE TROF BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND...THEN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS. HEAT INDICES MAY REACH 100 TO 105 OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. /29 .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES FROM THE EASTERN STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SMALL POPS BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES. /29 && .MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE LOWER GULF. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A CATEGORY AS THE FRONT NEARS AND INTERACTS WITH THE GULF HIGH. HAVE HEADLINED FOR SMALL CRAFT TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE NEAR TERM. SEAS TRENDING HIGHER...AVERAGING 3 TO 4 FEET THE NEXT FEW PERIODS. WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR STORMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED RAIN COOLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 04.12Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM...THE LATEST FORECAST CALLS FOR THE FRONT TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY AND BEGIN TO STALL. THE FRONT DISSIPATES LATE FRIDAY AS A BETTER DEFINED SOUTHEAST FLOW SETS UP...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. /10 && .FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND THEN DISSIPATES. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 73 91 72 91 / 10 50 40 60 PENSACOLA 77 91 76 89 / 10 50 40 60 DESTIN 76 88 76 86 / 10 50 40 50 EVERGREEN 70 92 68 91 / 20 70 40 40 WAYNESBORO 69 91 67 91 / 40 70 30 40 CAMDEN 70 90 66 90 / 40 70 30 30 CRESTVIEW 69 93 70 92 / 20 60 40 60 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516082 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:57 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 746 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COASTS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. BEHIND IT, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY, WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THEN SETTLE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 605 PM PRELIM ESTF LEGACY PRODUCT DROPPED THE MENTION OF THUNDER. RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT CHANGES INCLUDED ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AND POPS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT. SO THE SHOWERY UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE UPPER/COLD LOW CIRCULATING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. LOCAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE MOST OF THE SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT IN PA AND IN THE NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS. NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING REPORTS SINCE ABOUT 18Z. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LOW 50S MOST OTHER AREAS. WINDS WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... MUCH OF THE SAME WEATHER ON TUESDAY AS WAS FOR TODAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY...BUT ENOUGH COLD AIR LINGERS ALOFT AND MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. POPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW...WITH THE NORTHERN AREAS MORE FAVORED...BEING CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE WILL REMAIN COOL WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. A FEW DOWNPOURS/GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR TUE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE GFS INITIALIZATION WAS SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB SO BY THIS TIME PERIOD WE LEANED MORE TOWARD ITS DIRECTION. THERE WILL BE A SLOW UNRAVELING OF THE REX BLOCK GOING FORWARD WITH WARMER WEATHER RETURNING AS THE LONG TERM PROGRESSES. SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND TUESDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTING ANY THUNDER. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK CAPABLE OF TRAPPING IN CLOUDS BELOW THE WEAK INVERSION SO ARE GOING WITH A CLEAR(ER) SOLUTION OVERNIGHT. THUS WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER GFS MOS MINS ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE RADIATING PARTS OF THE SERN PART OF OUR CWA. LESS CONFIDENCE ABOUT MINS NORTHWEST. MORE SELF DESTRUCT SUN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THE FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS WELL AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVES ARE FAVORING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA MORE SO THAN THE SOUTHEAST. THE FORECAST CONVECTIVE AND 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE TO MAX TEMPS. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THUNDER POSSIBLE EARLY. SOME AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS BEGINNING SO WE UPPED THE MINS ABOUT A CATEGORY FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. ON THURSDAY DAY, THE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS MORE UNIVERSALLY PLACED IN OUR CWA PLUS THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FCST QVEC CONVERGENCE AS THE SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED THROUGH THE BACK DOOR IN THE SREF POPS AS THEY ARE HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY. WE TRENDED OUR POPS HIER, BUT WANT TO SEE MORE SUSTAINED CORROBORATION BEFORE INTRODUCING LIKELY POPS. LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WE ARE SEEING ABOUT AN UPTICK IN THE AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND HIER FCST CONVECTIVE TEMPS SO MAX TEMPS WERE NUDGED HIER BY ABOUT 2-4F FROM WEDNESDAY. WE START LOSING OUR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY DAY, SO POPS ARE MUCH LOWER AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF DELMARVA ON FRIDAY DAY. AS THE 500MB RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN. 90 BY NEXT MONDAY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR OUR CWA. WE WILL ALSO HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH WE SUPPOSE SOME SYSTEMS COMING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MIGHT MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. CONFIDENCE AND TIMING ABOUT THIS ARE LESS THAN AVERAGE, SO WHERE WE DO HAVE POPS, THEY WERE KEPT PRETTY LOW. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH 04Z...SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS. OCNLY A SHOWER BRINGS IFR CIGS OR VSBYS TO ONE OF THE TERMINALS WITH A FEW DOWNPOURS. THESE LOWER CONDS DO NOT LAST VERY LONG HOWEVER. NNE WIND OCNL G 15 KTS. OVERNIGHT AFTER 04Z...MOSTLY VFR CIGS BUT ISOLATED FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF SKY COVER BECOMES SCT OR CLR. MIXING WITH WIND WILL PROBABLY LIMIT FOG TO ONLY A COUPLE OF TAF LOCATIONS...MAINLY KRDG AND KMIV. CONFIDENCE ON ANY FOG RESTRICTION IS BELOW AVG AND CONFIDENCE ON CLEARING AFTER 06Z IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE. TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE EAST...BUT OVERALL FCST REMAINS SIMILAR WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. WINDS TUE WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY AT 10 TO 15 KTS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. NO WIND RELATED ISSUES EXPECTED. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH LESS IF ANY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. NO WIND RELATED ISSUES EXPECTED. && .MARINE... SCA FLAGS ARE UP FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DEL BAY. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KTS AS OF MID-AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUE. SEAS AT THE BUOYS WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 5 OR 6 FT TUE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME 5FT SEAS AT THE MOUTH OF THE DEL BAY ALSO...SO WE WILL KEEP THE SCA GOING OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. WEATHER...SHOWERY WITH ISOLATED TSTM. OUTLOOK... WHILE WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY TUESDAY EVENING, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS MIGHT LINGER ON THE OCEAN SIDE. THE ADVISORY WAS NOT EXTENDED AT THIS TIME BECAUSE CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH. BUT BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT, WE ARE EXPECTING BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BUILDS INTO AND THEN STARTS SETTLING SOUTH OF OUR CWA. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ***MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT HAS BEGUN*** CFW STATEMENT HAS BEEN UPDATED. THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES IN THIS JUNE TIDE CYCLE ARE OCCURRING THIS EVENING ALONG MOST OF THE ATLC NJ AND DE COASTS. FOR NJ AND DE ATLC COASTS: THIS EVENINGS ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WAS PREDICTED 0.2 FT BELOW MINOR THRESHOLD WITHOUT ANY IMPACT FROM PRESSURE AND WIND STRESS. WELL...MINOR TO MODERATE CF IS NOW OCCURRING ALONG INCREASING REGIONS OF THE COASTS WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MODERATE CF EVENT IMMINENT. THE NATURALLY HIGH ASTRO TIDE COMBINED WITH A STEADY OR SLIGHTLY INCREASING POSITIVE 1.33 TO 1.57 SURGE DEPARTURES AT 718 PM DUE TO A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EPISODE THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE NJ AND DE COASTS. THE MOST FAVORED REGION FOR A MODERATE EVENT APPEARS TO BE THE S NJ AND DE COASTS. THE 12Z/4 GFS AND NAM VIA ETSS AND DBOFS ARE FORECASTING MDT CF THIS EVENING...THE NAM A BIT LESS EMPHATIC. A LOCALLY DEVELOPED SET OF EQUATIONS BASED ON A HISTORICAL DATABASE WAS FORECASTING JUST BELOW MODERATE BUT THAT ISNT WORKING TOO WELL. THINK THE GFS PREDICTION IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE ACCURATE FCST TO WITHIN ABOUT 0.1 FT. CONFIDENCE IN A MODERATE EVENT IS RATED AS INCREASING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...BASED ON REALITY TRENDS WHICH SO FAR REFUSE TO BACK-OFF THE LARGE DEPARTURES ESTABLISHED DURING LOW TIDE A FEW HRS AGO. ESSENTIALLY I LEANED ON THE MORE THREATENING GFS BASED TIDAL FORECAST SUPPORTED BY THE 2PM THROUGH 7 PM POSITIVE DEPARTURES IN REAL TIME DATA. FORTUNATELY ONSHORE SWELL AND WIND WAVE IS MINIMAL AND SO THE PRIMARY IMPACT THIS EVENING IS THE EXPECTED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF THE TIDAL INUNDATION AFFECTED ROADS...WITH ANY RELATED PROPERTY DAMAGE PROBABLY MINIMAL. TIDAL FLOOD EPISODES SHOULD NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT ALONG THE DE AND NJ ATLC COASTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENINGS BUT EXCEEDENCE OF MINOR ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ARE PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY EVENING. PHILADELPHIA: THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER IS CONTINUING TO MODEL A MINOR EVENT WITHIN AN HOUR OF THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THE TIDES MAY RUN A BIT HIGHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM REEDY POINT TO PHILADELPHIA AND NEWBOLD. OUTLOOK... WHILE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ON TUESDAY EVENING, IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL REACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEANSIDE AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AS DBFOS GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE TOO RAMBUNCTIOUS. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES START SLIDING DOWNWARD ON TUESDAY SO BY WEDNESDAY WITH A LIGHTER FLOW, ALL AREAS MAY BE FREE OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. ON CHESAPEAKE BAY, WE ARE TAKING A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH AS CBFOS GUIDANCE IS ALREADY TOO HOT. WE SUPPOSE IF WE ARE WRONG, MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS MIGHT BE REACHED WITH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. && .RIP CURRENTS... 6 FT SEA...8 SEC PERIOD AND A SYNOPTIC WIND OF 0317 IN THE 15Z-18Z PERIOD TUESDAY SHOULD EASILY PRODUCE A MDT RISK OF DANGEROUS RIPS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE FULL MOON. DEWEY BEACH WATER TEMP THIS AFTN WAS 67F. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ070-071. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012>014-020>027. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ016>019. DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002>004. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR DEZ001. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GIGI |
| #516081 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:53 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 746 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .AVIATION... AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS SUPPRESSED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUS, REMOVED THE VCTS FROM THE TAFS AND ADDED VCSH FOR NAPLES FOR TONIGHT. THE FORECAST REASONING IS THAT WITH MORE MOISTURE TOMORROW THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO TODAY. HOWEVER...THE INCREASE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS FOR TOMORROW COULD DIMINISH SOLAR HEATING, CONVECTION, AND THE PENETRATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. OVERALL THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE VCSH THAN VCTS FOR THE EAST AND WEST COAST TERMINALS. FOR TONIGHT INCLUDED VCSH FOR NAPLES DUE TO THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE GULF. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012/ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS ENVELOPED SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE THE 90 DEGREE MARK. CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST COASTAL AREAS. ATTM LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW HAS ACTUALLY INCREASED WHICH IS INHIBITING THE FORMATION OF AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS CONTINUES...STORMS MAY NOT DEVELOP BUT WITH A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS OF HEATING REMAINING...A WEAK CONVERGENT ZONE ALONG THE EAST COAST COULD DEVELOP POSSIBLY SPARKING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. IF SO...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR ANY STORM TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNDOWN. BY TUESDAY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES COMBINED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE POTENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT WESTERLY FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE EVEN STRONGER THAN TODAY MEANING A GOOD FORCING MECHANISM FOR STRONG TO SEVERE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE HARD TO COME BY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH DEEP MOISTURE HANGING AROUND FACILITATING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES MAY BE SEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AS A BROAD H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH WSW WINDS NEAR 10 KT. HOWEVER, INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND WINDS COULD BECOME SE AT KFLL BY 4 PM. THE SEA BREEZE LIKELY WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE OTHER ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ESP AFTER 4 PM. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS TO AROUND 50 KT AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER, THE LIKELIHOOD OF A STORM IMPACTING A TERMINAL IS LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE STORMS EXPECTED. ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY 01Z WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER OVERNIGHT. /GREGORIA MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SEAS MAINLY 4 FEET OR LESS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. AS THE FRONT SLOWS AND WEAKENS LATE IN THE WEEK, WINDS MAY SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 77 90 76 87 / 10 30 20 30 FORT LAUDERDALE 79 91 77 88 / 10 30 20 30 MIAMI 79 90 77 89 / 10 30 20 30 NAPLES 76 89 75 86 / 10 30 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516080 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:53 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 747 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .UPDATE... UPDATE THIS EVENING TO MENTION LOW POPS FOR PORTIONS OF MANATEE/SARASOTA COUNTIES FOR SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS WHICH HAS REMAINED PERSISTENT AND DROPPED LIGHT RAINFALL. WILL CARRY MENTION THROUGH 03Z AND RE-EVALUATE AT THAT POINT. OFFSHORE...LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE COASTAL WATERS SLOWLY MOVING EAST. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH THIS RAINFALL AS WELL BUT FOR NOW WILL INCREASE POPS AS NAM AND GFS SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT WHICH WOULD STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND FAVOR LATE OVERNIGHT ONSHORE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY NEAR THE COAST. DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WILL LIMIT SHOWERS SOMEWHAT THERE AND WILL KEEP DRY MENTION NORTH. ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER TO ADJUST FOR EXPANSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS REMAINING IN PLACE. && .AVIATION... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BUT MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE FROM THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE EASTERN GULF MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR TUESDAY WITH SCT TSRA POSSIBLE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 159 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012/ SHORT TERM... CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE CAROLINAS WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS DRIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THE RULE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW RETURNS WELL OFFSHORE...WITH NO RAINFALL OVER LAND AREAS. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL REVOLVE AROUND RAINFALL CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED SOUTH OF THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER BY TUESDAY EVENING...THEN REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT IN PARTICULARLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAINFALL PROBABILITIES...BUT ARE SIMILAR IN THE HANDLING OF LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES. CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DRIFTING IN OFF THE WESTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE TAMPA METRO...BUT PROBABILITIES OF MEASURE ABLE RAINFALL ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SLOWLY INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE NEED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED EACH DAY THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM... SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. ALOFT...SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH ENERGY STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION AS A TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TO OVER THE ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOWERING RAIN CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 70-MID 70S THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN LOWER TO THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD. MARINE... WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THURSDAY BEFORE A COOL FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. FIRE WEATHER... NO HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW CONTINUES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 89 76 87 / 10 20 20 30 FMY 76 90 74 88 / 10 30 20 30 GIF 74 92 74 89 / 0 20 20 30 SRQ 77 88 75 87 / 30 20 20 30 BKV 72 91 72 89 / 0 20 20 30 SPG 79 87 78 87 / 10 20 20 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #516079 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:45 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 637 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION...CONVECTION OVER MEXICO AND CONTINUED SURFACE FORCING WILL REQUIRE A 2 HOUR TEMPO TSRA AT KLRD...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS IF STORMS STRONG ENOUGH. OTHERWISE...WITH DECREASING WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE MORE CLOUDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AM EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AOA 06Z KCRP AND KALI...AND KLRD AND KVCT A FEW HOURS AFTER THAT. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION NEAR THE RIO GRANDE WILL DELAY MVFR CONDITIONS SOME. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT MVFR BR AT KALI AND KVCT (HAVE TEMPOS). ALSO...COULD HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE GULFMEX WHICH COULD DRIFT INTO EITHER KCRP OR KVCT AREA BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF (CONFIDENCE LOW). VFR CONDITIONS (WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES) WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS AOA 15Z...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDTIONS DEVELOPING MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING WINDS TO BE LESS ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY SE WINDS AND LESS THAN 11 KNOTS EXCEPT AFTER SEA-BREEZE MOVES ACROSS WHERE WINDS MAY BE A TAD GUSTY BUT GUSTS LESS THAN 25 KNOTS EXPECTED. CONVECTION OUT WEST MAY BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A VCTS THERE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AOA 21Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO POOL IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ADVERTISED THROUGH PREVIOUS AFDS STILL LINGERS ALOFT...STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OFF OF THE SIERRA MADRE WITH CURRENT AFTERNOON RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWING ONGOING CONVECTION. WITH AREAS OF INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DECENT LAPSE RATES FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...ALONG WITH CAPE VALUES PROGGED OVER 2000 J/KG...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CLOSER WITH A BETTER CHANCE TO AFFECT THE FAR WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. SHEARING IS LACKING...SO AM THINKING THAT MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA... HOWEVER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEFORE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 OR GREATER. DECENT 0-1KM LAPSE RATES OVER THE WATERS COMBINED WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN WILL LEAD TO STREAMER SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH SHOWERS SLOWLY MOVING INLAND AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MENTIONED THUNDER BY THE LATE MORNING DUE TO HEATING COMBINED WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEABREEZE. CONCERNS FOLLOW WITH THUNDER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH OF THE CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING MOVING SOUTHWARD. CURRENTLY...BEST DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF STORMS DO MOVE FAR SOUTH ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE...THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. AS FOR NOW...THINKING TIMING MAY BE OFF SO WILL KEEP ONLY SILENT POPS FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS...WITH CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR FAR WESTERN WEBB FOR STORMS MOVING OUT OF MEXICO. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF STREAMER SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS ARE TRENDING WETTER IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN RELATIVE GOOD AGREEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BENEATH THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO...SUCH THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...EVENTUALLY MOVING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SFC-700MB FLOW WEAKENS AND TURNS EAST WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. GRADUAL MOISTENING TAKES PLACE...WITH PWATS REACHING 135% OF NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WITH WEAKNESS ALOFT DRIFTING TOWARDS THE REGION THIS SPELLS BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED TYPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY KICK NORTHEAST TOWARDS LOUISIANA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POP CHANCES THEN EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. HAVE RAISED POPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY INTO THE CHANCE/SCATTERED CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. QPF AMOUNTS LIKELY TO HIGHEST DURING THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIME PERIODS. THE 12Z CANADIAN IS MOST BULLISH SHOWING MUCH OF THE AREA GETTING 2 TO 4 INCHES. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING BETWEEN 1/2 TO 2 INCHES. SHOULD MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE... POPS MAY LIKELY GO MUCH HIGHER IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TEMPS...SHOWED GRADUAL DECREASING TREND IN HIGHS THU-SAT...THEN WARMING AGAIN SUN-MON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 75 91 75 92 74 / 10 20 10 20 10 VICTORIA 75 93 73 95 73 / 10 20 20 20 10 LAREDO 77 101 77 102 76 / 20 10 10 20 20 ALICE 75 95 73 97 73 / 10 20 10 20 10 ROCKPORT 79 89 78 89 78 / 10 20 20 20 20 COTULLA 75 98 74 98 73 / 20 10 10 20 20 KINGSVILLE 75 94 76 95 74 / 10 20 10 20 10 NAVY CORPUS 79 90 77 90 77 / 10 20 20 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516077 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:45 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 638 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 6500FT AT KAPY. A WEAK 500MB LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MEXICAN PLATEAU TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT EXCEPT WHERE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PROVIDE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 151 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT AND A LOW CHANCE OF SOME SEA BREEZE SHOWERS TUESDAY. CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE OVER THE SIERRA MADRE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HEATING THE SURFACE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW NIGHTS A FEW OF THESE COULD DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE RIVER LATE TONIGHT AFFECTING MAINLY STARR AND ZAPATA. THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MAY STILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE VALLEY/S WEATHER TUESDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A WEAK SEA BREEZE. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THE AMOUNT AND DEPTH OF MOISTURE. MODEST PWAT VALUES OF 1.6 INCHES AND A SHRINKING DRY MID LAYER MAY BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE 20 PERCENT THAT IS ALL READY MENTIONED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT WITH VERIFICATION VALUES SHOWING OBSERVED CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN WARMER WILL TREND JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY HIGHS. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SLIGHT LOWERING OF OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO LIGHTER SOUTHEAST WINDS SO WILL TREND IN THIS DIRECTION. LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A LEFT OVER PIECE OF ENERGY DEVELOPS A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS WEDNESDAY. 12Z NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDING SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PWATS VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS MOISTURE OVER THE GULF WILL GRADUALLY SURGE INTO THE CWA AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES BRINGING A BREAK TO THIS DRY WEATHER. THIS LOW WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE VALLEY. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH 12Z NAM BEING THE WEAKEST. DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW WHICH IS BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST AND EAST OF THE CONUS AND UNDER A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL EXPECT THIS LOW TO SLOWLY IMPACT THE CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE VALLEY WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 90S. INHERITED TEMPERATURES WERE LEFT THE SAME. INTO THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SIERRA MADRE OVER MEXICO AND WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY INCREASING BETWEEN 25 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH. MOISTURE PLUME MIGRATES NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS NEXT WEEK. MARINE...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TO MAINTAIN A STEADY STATE WIND AND SEA REGIME THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LIGHT TO MODERATE ON SHORE WINDS AND A SLIGHT SEA CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... GIVEN THE PROLONGED OFFSHORE FETCH SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 4 FEET WEDNESDAY FROM THE EAST. SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS AS THE APPROACH OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY SHIFTING BACK EASTERLY DURING THE DAY WITH THE SLOWLY PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE VALLEY. A STRONG MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE GULF WILL INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS ALMOST STATIONARY DURING THE WEEKEND KEEPING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA FINALLY EXITING MONDAY. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516076 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:45 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 633 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE REGION. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 355 PM MONDAY...STRATIFORM RAIN LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS HALLMARK SIGNATURE OF JET DYNAMICS (ELONGATED COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND RACES OFF TO THE EAST. LOOKS LIKE A LULL IN POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON PAST 1800 UTC THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. GFS OMEGA FIELDS SHOW TWO AREAS OF FORCING FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FIRST FROM 0600-1200 UTC WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH THE FRONT. SECOND...MID LEVEL OMEGA AROUND 500MB CLOSER TO 1200 UTC WITH THE FEATURE NOW IN ILLINOIS. WILL HAVE A DRY PERIOD FOR SEVERAL HOURS FROM THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 0600 UTC THEN FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS TRENDS. CONSIDERING ALL OF THE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FLOATING AROUND...ADDED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO OVERNIGHT MINS ACROSS THE BOARD. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 355 PM MONDAY...COMPLEX AND MUDDLED FORECAST DUE TO TIMING OF UPPER IMPULSES MOVING RATHER SWIFTLY DOWN THE WEST PORTIONS OF AN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE...AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MAY STALL OVER OUR VERY SOUTHERN ZONES. ONE IMPULSE OVER ILLINOIS PRESENTLY WILL DROP SE IMPACTING OUR ZONES WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY MORNING AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY IN AN E-W FASHION SETTLES...WE MAY SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA THROUGH TUESDAY...PERHAPS FAVORED OVER SC. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN 4-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUE/WED...WHEREAS MIN TEMPS DUR TO CLOUDS COULD HOLD NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND HIGH TIDE...BUT AFTER THIS ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL WANE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. ON THURSDAY. LOCALLY THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO BELOW CLIMO TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE FURTHER MODULATED BY THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER ACTING TO INHIBIT INSOLATION. VERY SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY MAINLY EARLY IN THE DAY. ONE FINAL PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH ACTING TO SWING IT OFF THE COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY CROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS OR BE A BIT FURTHER EAST. EITHER WAY THE COOL SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL NOT BEAR MUCH OR ANY INSTABILITY SO ANY PRECIP GENERATED WILL EITHER BE STRATIFORM OR SHALLOW CONVECTION AND NOT LEAD TO APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS AT ALL ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY IS STARTING TO LOOK DRIER DUE THE THE FRONT SLIPPING SO FAR TO THE SOUTH. THE SECOND PORTION OF THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY ON WILL FEATURE MUCH DIFFERENT WEATHER. THE EXIT OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW BUILDING HEIGHTS FROM THE WEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIMILARLY SHIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO AN OFFSHORE POSITION. SKY COVER SHOULD IMPROVE AND TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT TO CLIMO OR ABOVE. DEWPOINTS MUCH MORE TYPICAL OF JUNE WILL ALSO BE BACK IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 00Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF POTENTIAL BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS FROM 06Z TO 12Z. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ATTM...THE PROBABILITY OF ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE BEING IMPACTED IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT OVERNIGHT. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE ST DEVELOPMENT IN THE 06Z TO 12Z WINDOW AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRIER AIR UPSTREAM WILL NOT MAKE IT TO AREA TAF SITES AS WINDS RAPIDLY GO NE AFTER FROPA. IF THIS OCCURS...IT IS MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE FRONTAL INVERSION MAY ALLOW IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT AREA TAF SITES. FOR NOW...IFR CIGS ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AS THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY DOES NOT DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY AFTER FROPA. A PROB 30 GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE 18Z TO 24Z WINDOW FOR -TSRA AT THE SC TAF LOCATIONS AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THAT PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORMS IN THE AREA. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 355 PM MONDAY...MAIN EVENT FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THE WIND SHIFT OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE WINDS VEER FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY BY 1200 UTC. THIS WILL TAKE PLACE PRIMARILY DURING THE 0600 -1200 UTC TIME FRAME. ESSENTIALLY NO COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY SO WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ON THE LOWER END OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE. LATEST SPECTRAL PLOTS SHOW THE WAVE SPECTRUM DOMINATED BY SIX SECOND WIND WAVES WITH A SUBTLE 15 SECOND PERIOD. SHOULD SEE THIS SPECTRUM CONTINUE AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 355 PM MONDAY...VARIABLE BUT LIGHT WINDS INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE WATERS. BY TUESDAY AFTN PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL...VEERING TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH ONE LOW PRESSURE WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY...AND PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA...MOUNTING NE WINDS IN RESPONSE COULD BRING SEAS TO A 4-5 FOOT RANGE N OF CAPE FEAR AND OVER THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY...BUT ADVISORIES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE NEEDED...BUT CAUTIONARY STATEMENT POTENTIALLY MAY BE. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH DAY OVER THE WATERS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 355 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING A LIGHT ONSHORE/EASTERLY WIND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NE VS SOUTHEAST HINGING UPON WHETHER OR NOT A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTH. EITHER WAY WIND SPEED WILL BE CAPPED AT 10KT OR SO AND THE RESULTING SEAS QUITE SMALL IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE SWELL. THE EXIT OF THE LOW PAIRED WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH ON FRIDAY WILL BACK WINDS TO N OR NW AND COULD RESULT IN A SHORT LIVED INCREASE IN SPEED OF 5 KT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST AND QUITE VARIABLE ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY FINDS ITSELF CENTERED OFFSHORE FOR A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT LOCALLY LATE IN THE DAY OR BY NIGHTTIME. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #516074 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:36 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 729 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN OCEAN STORM WELL EAST OF CAPE COD WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WED THROUGH FRI...BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE...BUT SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED TO THE END OF THE WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE WILL LIKELY BRING WARMER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 720 PM UPDATE... LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT. A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO MAY OCCASIONALLY FIND THEIR WAY TO THE DISTANT INTERIOR...BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THAT REGION OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE STEADY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE PUSH FURTHER EAST...CONFINING IT MORE TOWARDS THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY ONLY FALL A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE CURRENT READINGS. STILL A RAW AND UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION. SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING DURING TONIGHT/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE OCEAN STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WHILE THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE VICINITY OF NOVA SCOTIA. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS WEAK IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW. TIMING THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BE DIFFICULT SO WE WILL HAVE CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUE SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT BUT A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...LASTING INTO TUE NIGHT. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY TUE...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COOL AS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S...EXCEPT UPPER 50S ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH LESS WIND. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER WED-FRI BUT NOT A WASHOUT * COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK * PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER WEATHER LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK DETAILS... WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH DISTANT OCEAN STORM WILL HAVE LIFTED WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HANG BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR EARLY JUNE...WITH WED BEING THE COOLEST DAY. WHILE A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED...COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME INSTABILITY FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE FOUND INLAND FROM THE COAST WHERE THERE WILL BE A BIT BETTER INSTABILITY AWAY FROM THE MARINE LAYER. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION...BUT THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS. LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH EAST OF OUR REGION. NONETHELESS...EXPECT A NICE WEEKEND WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER WELL INTO THE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS RISING HEIGHT FIELDS SHOULD LIMIT OR PREVENT ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY. MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HEIGHT FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SO THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST IS A POSSIBILITY. KEPT FORECAST DRY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT BUT PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE DISTANT INTERIOR. MOST OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR TUE...ESPECIALLY CT VALLEY. STRONGEST GUSTS TO 30 KT ACROSS NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE S. KBOS TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH IMPROVING CIGS DURING TUE. KBDL TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MAINLY LOW END VFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ON TUE. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WED THROUGH FRI...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DOMINATE ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SAT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. HAVE LET GALE WARNINGS EXPIRE AS THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED WITH WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECT SCA GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED DIMINISHING WIND TUE AND TUE NIGHT. HAZARDOUS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER OPEN WATERS THROUGH TUE...THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT LATE TUE NIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING MORE SCT TUE AND TUE NIGHT. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY SWELL MAY RESULT IN SCA FOR SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER-WATERS LINGERING INTO WED MORNING. THEREAFTER...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FOR MOST IF NOT THE REST OF THE PERIOD. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... * COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST EXPANDED TO NANTUCKET TONIGHT... NEW 12Z NAM FITS WITH PRIOR GUIDANCE FOR WIND FLOW THRU TONIGHT. CONFIDENT OF WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT AND HAVE CONTINUED WARNING AS WELL AS ADDED NANTUCKET. ONSHORE WIND AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING FOR COAST JUST EAST OF NANTUCKET. WE ADJUSTED SEAS ABOVE GUIDANCE SOME GIVEN OUR EXPERIENCE WITH EFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN NE WIND CASES. THE NE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO EASE A LITTLE IN THE FEW HOURS LEADING TO HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE COD. THE TIMING OF THAT EASING OF THE GRADIENT IS CRITICAL AS TO THE MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING WE WILL SEE. SINCE MODELS TEND TO BE A LITTLE FAST TO EASE OFF THE GRADIENT ON QUASI-STATIONARY COASTAL STORMS...WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT OF THE GRADIENT EASING NORTH OF BOSTON THAN SOUTH OF BOSTON. PRIOR TO ANY EASING OF THE GRADIENT THIS EVENING...WE ARE ANTICIPATING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIRECTLY ONSHORE AT ABOUT A 040 DEGREES DIRECTION. CONSIDERABLE FETCH AND DURATION SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL WAVE GENERATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS CLIMBING ANOTHER COUPLE OF FEET OR SO FROM PRESENT. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER FOR THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE LONGER PERIOD WAVES THAN LAST NIGHT AND THUS HIGHER ENERGY WAVE ACTION. TAKING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER...WE ARE ANTICIPATING COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR IN MAGNITUDE AS LAST NIGHT FOR THE SHORELINE NORTH OF BOSTON...AND PROBABLY SOMEWHAT MORE SIGNIFICANT FOR THE COASTLINE SOUTH OF BOSTON INCLUDING THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. WE ARE PROJECTING A STORM SURGE OF 1.3 TO 1.5 FEET AT THE TIME OF MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE FROM SALISBURY TO BOSTON. FROM BOSTON TO PLYMOUTH...WE ARE THINKING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 FEET. FOR NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORELINES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...WE ARE THINKING CLOSER TO 1.8 FEET AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. WE ARE PROJECTING SEAS OF GENERALLY 12 TO 15 FEET JUST A FEW MILES OFFSHORE OF THE COAST WITH PERIODS GENERALLY 9 TO 12 SECONDS. THE OTHER TIDE ISSUE OF CONSEQUENCE IS BEACH EROSION. GIVEN THE DURATION AND FETCH THAT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS...WE THINK BEACH EROSION WILL QUITE SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY FOR OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WHICH MAY BE MOST EXPOSED TO LARGE AND RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WAVES AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. AT LEAST SOME BEACH EROSION WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL WIND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. WE APPRECIATE ANY REAL TIME OR NEAR REAL TIME FEEDBACK ON TIDE IMPACTS VIA STORM REPORTER...WEB SPOTTER OR OTHER MEANS. TUE NIGHT... MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY AGAIN TUE NIGHT WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. WHILE THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER E WITH TIME...CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THREAT. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015- 016-019-022-024. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020. NH...NONE. RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ002- 004>007. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-231-236. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254- 255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK |
| #516072 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:27 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 620 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .AVIATION... VFR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH FEW/SCT LOW CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO GO WITH BKN/OVC CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS. WOULD STILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF LOWER CLOUD DECKS DO DEVELOP WITH A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING SIMILAR TO WHAT THE AREA SAW TODAY. EXPECTING GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE LESS WIND TOO. THE AREA WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING WITH SOME SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PERSISTING (AND INCREASING) THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... THE WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AND N TX THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN LIFTING THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE MODELS THEN DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND WITH HOW FAR SOUTHWEST A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INTO SE TX. THE MAIN IDEA FROM THE MODELS IS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PW/S ON BOTH MODELS WERE SIMILAR TO THE MODEL OUTPUT FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH VALUES FORECASTED BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2 INCHES. WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL CONFINED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW. THE MODELS SLOWED DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF THE WEAKNESS ALOFT AND SLOWLY MOVE IT TOWARD THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN IF THE UPPER TROUGH DOES MOVE EAST EARLIER...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN SET UP. MARINE... LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND BRINGING MORE EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE COAST. IN ADDITION TO THIS FRONT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING MID WEEK AND PERSISTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 38 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 93 73 93 73 / 10 20 20 40 30 HOUSTON (IAH) 74 94 74 92 73 / 10 20 20 40 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 80 88 78 86 78 / 10 20 20 40 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516071 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:12 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 705 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COASTS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. BEHIND IT, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY, WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THEN SETTLE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 605 PM PRELIM ESTF LEGACY PRODUCT DROPPED THE MENTION OF THUNDER. RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT CHANGES INCLUDED ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AND POPS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT. SO THE SHOWERY UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE UPPER/COLD LOW CIRCULATING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. LOCAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE MOST OF THE SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT IN PA AND IN THE NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS. NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING REPORTS SINCE ABOUT 18Z. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LOW 50S MOST OTHER AREAS. WINDS WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... MUCH OF THE SAME WEATHER ON TUESDAY AS WAS FOR TODAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY...BUT ENOUGH COLD AIR LINGERS ALOFT AND MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. POPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW...WITH THE NORTHERN AREAS MORE FAVORED...BEING CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE WILL REMAIN COOL WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. A FEW DOWNPOURS/GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR TUE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE GFS INITIALIZATION WAS SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB SO BY THIS TIME PERIOD WE LEANED MORE TOWARD ITS DIRECTION. THERE WILL BE A SLOW UNRAVELING OF THE REX BLOCK GOING FORWARD WITH WARMER WEATHER RETURNING AS THE LONG TERM PROGRESSES. SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND TUESDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTING ANY THUNDER. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK CAPABLE OF TRAPPING IN CLOUDS BELOW THE WEAK INVERSION SO ARE GOING WITH A CLEAR(ER) SOLUTION OVERNIGHT. THUS WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER GFS MOS MINS ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE RADIATING PARTS OF THE SERN PART OF OUR CWA. LESS CONFIDENCE ABOUT MINS NORTHWEST. MORE SELF DESTRUCT SUN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THE FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS WELL AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVES ARE FAVORING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA MORE SO THAN THE SOUTHEAST. THE FORECAST CONVECTIVE AND 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE TO MAX TEMPS. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THUNDER POSSIBLE EARLY. SOME AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS BEGINNING SO WE UPPED THE MINS ABOUT A CATEGORY FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. ON THURSDAY DAY, THE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS MORE UNIVERSALLY PLACED IN OUR CWA PLUS THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FCST QVEC CONVERGENCE AS THE SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED THROUGH THE BACK DOOR IN THE SREF POPS AS THEY ARE HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY. WE TRENDED OUR POPS HIER, BUT WANT TO SEE MORE SUSTAINED CORROBORATION BEFORE INTRODUCING LIKELY POPS. LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WE ARE SEEING ABOUT AN UPTICK IN THE AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND HIER FCST CONVECTIVE TEMPS SO MAX TEMPS WERE NUDGED HIER BY ABOUT 2-4F FROM WEDNESDAY. WE START LOSING OUR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY DAY, SO POPS ARE MUCH LOWER AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF DELMARVA ON FRIDAY DAY. AS THE 500MB RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN. 90 BY NEXT MONDAY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR OUR CWA. WE WILL ALSO HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH WE SUPPOSE SOME SYSTEMS COMING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MIGHT MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. CONFIDENCE AND TIMING ABOUT THIS ARE LESS THAN AVERAGE, SO WHERE WE DO HAVE POPS, THEY WERE KEPT PRETTY LOW. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH 02Z...SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS. OCNLY A SHOWER BRINGS IFR CIGS OR VSBYS TO ONE OF THE TERMINALS WITH A FEW DOWNPOURS. THESE LOWER CONDS DO NOT LAST VERY LONG HOWEVER. NNE WIND OCNL G 15 KTS. OVERNIGHT AFTER 02Z...MOSTLY VFR BUT SOME FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF SKY COVER BECOMES SCT OR CLR. TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE EAST...BUT OVERALL FCST REMAINS SIMILAR WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. WINDS TUE WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY AT 10 TO 15 KTS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. NO WIND RELATED ISSUES EXPECTED. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH LESS IF ANY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. NO WIND RELATED ISSUES EXPECTED. && .MARINE... SCA FLAGS ARE UP FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DEL BAY. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KTS AS OF MID-AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUE. SEAS AT THE BUOYS WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 5 OR 6 FT TUE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME 5FT SEAS AT THE MOUTH OF THE DEL BAY ALSO...SO WE WILL KEEP THE SCA GOING OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. WEATHER...SHOWERY WITH ISOLATED TSTM. OUTLOOK... WHILE WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY TUESDAY EVENING, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS MIGHT LINGER ON THE OCEAN SIDE. THE ADVISORY WAS NOT EXTENDED AT THIS TIME BECAUSE CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH. BUT BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT, WE ARE EXPECTING BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BUILDS INTO AND THEN STARTS SETTLING SOUTH OF OUR CWA. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES IN THIS JUNE TIDE CYCLE ARE OCCURRING THIS EVENING ALONG MOST OF THE ATLC NJ AND DE COASTS. FOR NJ AND DE ATLC COASTS: THIS EVENINGS ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WAS PREDICTED 0.2 FT BELOW MINOR THRESHOLD WITHOUT ANY IMPACT FROM PRESSURE AND WIND STRESS/. WELL...MINOR CF NOW OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTS WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MODERATE CF IMMINENT. THE NATURALLY HIGH ASTRO TIDE COMBINED WITH A STEADY OR SLIGHTLY INCREASING POSITIVE 1.31 TO 1.56 SURGE DEPARTURES AT 636 PM DUE TO A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EPISODE THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE NJ AND DE COASTS. THE MOST FAVORED REGION FOR A MODERATE EVENT APPEARS TO BE THE S NJ AND DE COASTS. THE 12Z/4 GFS AND NAM VIA ETSS AND DBOFS ARE FORECASTING MDT CF THIS EVENING...THE NAM A BIT LESS EMPHATIC. A LOCALLY DEVELOPED SET OF EQUATIONS BASED ON A HISTORICAL DATABASE WAS FORECASTING JUST BELOW MODERATE. CONFIDENCE IN A MODERATE EVENT IS RATED AS ABOVE AVERAGE...BASED ON REALITY TRENDS WHICH SO FAR REFUSE TO BACK-OFF THE LARGE DEPARTURES ESTABLISHED DURING LOW TIDE A FEW HRS AGO. ESSENTIALLY I HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE THREATENING GFS BASED TIDAL FORECAST SUPPORTED BY THE 2PM AND NOW THE 445 PM POSITIVE DEPARTURES IN REAL TIME DATA IN OUR LOWER PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON TIDE CYCLE. FORTUNATELY ONSHORE SWELL AND WIND WAVE IS MINIMAL AND SO THE PRIMARY IMPACT THIS EVENING IS THE EXPECTED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF THE TIDAL INUNDATION AFFECTED ROADS...WITH ANY RELATED PROPERTY DAMAGE PROBABLY MINIMAL. TIDAL FLOOD EPISODES SHOULD NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT ALONG THE DE AND NJ ATLC COASTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENINGS BUT EXCEEDENCE OF MINOR ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ARE PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY EVENING. PHILADELPHIA: THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER IS CONTINUING TO MODEL A MINOR EVENT WITHIN AN HOUR OF THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THE TIDES MAY RUN A BIT HIGHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM REEDY POINT TO PHILADELPHIA AND NEWBOLD. OUTLOOK... WHILE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ON TUESDAY EVENING, IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL REACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEANSIDE AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AS DBFOS GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE TOO RAMBUNCTIOUS. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES START SLIDING DOWNWARD ON TUESDAY SO BY WEDNESDAY WITH A LIGHTER FLOW, ALL AREAS MAY BE FREE OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. ON CHESAPEAKE BAY, WE ARE TAKING A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH AS CBFOS GUIDANCE IS ALREADY TOO HOT. WE SUPPOSE IF WE ARE WRONG, MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS MIGHT BE REACHED WITH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. && .RIP CURRENTS... 6 FT SEA...8 SEC PERIOD AND A SYNOPTIC WIND OF 0317 IN THE 15Z-18Z PERIOD TUESDAY SHOULD EASILY PRODUCE A MDT RISK OF DANGEROUS RIPS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE FULL MOON. DEWEY BEACH WATER TEMP THIS AFTN WAS 67F. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ070-071. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012>014-020>027. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ016>019. DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002>004. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR DEZ001. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GIGI |
| #516070 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:11 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 705 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 WITH A BRISK DEEP WESTERLY WIND FLOW...PRECIPITATION GENERATED BY WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX MAY MOVE UPON THE SW FLA COAST OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER CLOUDS MOVING OVER S FLA CURTAILED HEATING AND IN TURN CONVECTION OVER THE MAINLAND AND E. THUS, ZFP UPDATE WILL INTRODUCE SOME MINIMAL POPS TO THE GULF WATERS AND SW COAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND END PRECIPITATION INTERIOR AND E EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. SEE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MARINE ZONES AT THIS TIME. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS ENVELOPED SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE THE 90 DEGREE MARK. CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST COASTAL AREAS. ATTM LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW HAS ACTUALLY INCREASED WHICH IS INHIBITING THE FORMATION OF AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS CONTINUES...STORMS MAY NOT DEVELOP BUT WITH A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS OF HEATING REMAINING...A WEAK CONVERGENT ZONE ALONG THE EAST COAST COULD DEVELOP POSSIBLY SPARKING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. IF SO...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR ANY STORM TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNDOWN. BY TUESDAY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES COMBINED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE POTENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT WESTERLY FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE EVEN STRONGER THAN TODAY MEANING A GOOD FORCING MECHANISM FOR STRONG TO SEVERE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE HARD TO COME BY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH DEEP MOISTURE HANGING AROUND FACILITATING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES MAY BE SEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AS A BROAD H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. && .AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH WSW WINDS NEAR 10 KT. HOWEVER, INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND WINDS COULD BECOME SE AT KFLL BY 4 PM. THE SEA BREEZE LIKELY WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE OTHER ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ESP AFTER 4 PM. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS TO AROUND 50 KT AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER, THE LIKELIHOOD OF A STORM IMPACTING A TERMINAL IS LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE STORMS EXPECTED. ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY 01Z WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER OVERNIGHT. /GREGORIA && .MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SEAS MAINLY 4 FEET OR LESS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. AS THE FRONT SLOWS AND WEAKENS LATE IN THE WEEK, WINDS MAY SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 77 90 76 87 / 20 30 20 30 FORT LAUDERDALE 79 91 77 88 / 20 30 20 30 MIAMI 79 90 77 89 / 20 30 20 30 NAPLES 76 89 75 86 / 10 30 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516069 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:02 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 659 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... CONVECTION HAS DIED OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER LOBE OF VORTICITY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVERNIGHT. ALREADY SEEING ACTIVITY STARTING TO FIRE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND UPSTATE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE PER SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT IN THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BETWEEN MIDLAND AND SUNRISE...SO WILL LOWER POPS BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD AND FEATURE POPS 20-30 PERCENT WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE... HIGHEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOMINATING BY SUNRISE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... TUESDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DESCEND SOUTHWARD... WHILE ABUNDANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSES THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN WITHIN DEEPER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. WILL INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE 40 PERCENT RANGE BY MIDDAY...WITH NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. SEVERAL FACTORS SUGGEST THAT STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ZONES. THE REGION WILL FALL WITHIN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ACCORDINGLY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR SKY COVER TRENDS...AS THICK CLOUDS COULD LIMIT DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT MID WEEK...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITHIN THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH. AS A RESULT...EXPECT FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOLID SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGHEST RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED SOUTH OF THE LINGERING FRONT. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITHIN NORTHEAST FLOW...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LIKELY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY...PUSHING THE SURFACE FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT/SUN. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE. WATCHING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TRYING TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE UPSTATE. INCOMING DATA SUGGESTS THIS WILL REMAIN LARGELY WEST OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. BEST PROBABILITIES FOR IMPACTS WILL BE AT KSAV FROM ROUGHLY 16-20Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION ATTM. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY AS A STALLED FRONT LINGERS OVER/NEAR THE AREA. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY MOST OF THE NIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 10-15 KTS ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 2-3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-4 FT BEYOND. TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...AS MUCH DEPENDS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LINGERING FRONT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODIC WIND/WAVE INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... BASED ON THE EXTRA-TROPICAL GUIDANCE...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL SC/GA COASTAL AREAS. THROUGH MID WEEK...PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES COULD PRODUCE MINOR SALT WATER FLOODING DURING EACH EVENING HIGH TIDE. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117- 119-139-141. SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>051. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #516068 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:50 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 645 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .UPDATE... ALL PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED...THUS HAVE LOWERED POPS UNDER 15 PERCENT AREA WIDE FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF SEA BREEZE...AND WITH ACTIVITY IN THE GULF WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL FL...WILL LEAVE POPS OUT THERE AS WELL. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH SE GA OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY THERE...WITH NE FLORIDA GENERALLY REMAINING DRY OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER MAINLY SE GA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER SE GA ON TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE SE INTO NE FL DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT BUT LATEST DATA SUGGESTS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST OFFSHORE ZONE. WILL KEEP SCEC FOR THE FLORIDA NEARSHORE WATERS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL OCCUR TUESDAY EVENING BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET AWAY WITH JUST A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEEKS END. RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 70 90 69 88 / 10 80 70 50 SSI 74 89 73 85 / 10 80 80 70 JAX 71 92 71 88 / 10 70 70 70 SGJ 74 90 74 88 / 10 50 50 70 GNV 72 91 72 90 / 10 40 40 60 OCF 73 92 73 91 / 10 30 30 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ |
| #516066 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:27 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 623 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COASTS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. BEHIND IT, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY, WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THEN SETTLE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 605 PM PRELIM ESTF LEGACY PRODUCT DROPPED THE MENTION OF THUNDER. RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT CHANGES INCLUDED ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AND POPS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT. SO THE SHOWERY UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE UPPER/COLD LOW CIRCULATING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. LOCAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE MOST OF THE SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT IN PA AND IN THE NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS. NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING REPORTS SINCE ABOUT 18Z. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LOW 50S MOST OTHER AREAS. WINDS WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... MUCH OF THE SAME WEATHER ON TUESDAY AS WAS FOR TODAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY...BUT ENOUGH COLD AIR LINGERS ALOFT AND MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. POPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW...WITH THE NORTHERN AREAS MORE FAVORED...BEING CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE WILL REMAIN COOL WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. A FEW DOWNPOURS/GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR TUE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE GFS INITIALIZATION WAS SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB SO BY THIS TIME PERIOD WE LEANED MORE TOWARD ITS DIRECTION. THERE WILL BE A SLOW UNRAVELING OF THE REX BLOCK GOING FORWARD WITH WARMER WEATHER RETURNING AS THE LONG TERM PROGRESSES. SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND TUESDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTING ANY THUNDER. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK CAPABLE OF TRAPPING IN CLOUDS BELOW THE WEAK INVERSION SO ARE GOING WITH A CLEAR(ER) SOLUTION OVERNIGHT. THUS WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER GFS MOS MINS ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE RADIATING PARTS OF THE SERN PART OF OUR CWA. LESS CONFIDENCE ABOUT MINS NORTHWEST. MORE SELF DESTRUCT SUN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THE FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS WELL AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVES ARE FAVORING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA MORE SO THAN THE SOUTHEAST. THE FORECAST CONVECTIVE AND 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE TO MAX TEMPS. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THUNDER POSSIBLE EARLY. SOME AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS BEGINNING SO WE UPPED THE MINS ABOUT A CATEGORY FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. ON THURSDAY DAY, THE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS MORE UNIVERSALLY PLACED IN OUR CWA PLUS THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FCST QVEC CONVERGENCE AS THE SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED THROUGH THE BACK DOOR IN THE SREF POPS AS THEY ARE HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY. WE TRENDED OUR POPS HIER, BUT WANT TO SEE MORE SUSTAINED CORROBORATION BEFORE INTRODUCING LIKELY POPS. LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WE ARE SEEING ABOUT AN UPTICK IN THE AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND HIER FCST CONVECTIVE TEMPS SO MAX TEMPS WERE NUDGED HIER BY ABOUT 2-4F FROM WEDNESDAY. WE START LOSING OUR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY DAY, SO POPS ARE MUCH LOWER AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF DELMARVA ON FRIDAY DAY. AS THE 500MB RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN. 90 BY NEXT MONDAY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR OUR CWA. WE WILL ALSO HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH WE SUPPOSE SOME SYSTEMS COMING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MIGHT MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. CONFIDENCE AND TIMING ABOUT THIS ARE LESS THAN AVERAGE, SO WHERE WE DO HAVE POPS, THEY WERE KEPT PRETTY LOW. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH 02Z...SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS. OCNLY A SHOWER BRINGS IFR CIGS OR VSBYS TO ONE OF THE TERMINALS WITH A FEW DOWNPOURS. THESE LOWER CONDS DO NOT LAST VERY LONG HOWEVER. NNE WIND OCNL G 15 KTS. OVERNIGHT AFTER 02Z...MOSTLY VFR BUT SOME FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF SKY COVER BECOMES SCT OR CLR. TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE EAST...BUT OVERALL FCST REMAINS SIMILAR WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. WINDS TUE WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY AT 10 TO 15 KTS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. NO WIND RELATED ISSUES EXPECTED. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH LESS IF ANY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. NO WIND RELATED ISSUES EXPECTED. && .MARINE... SCA FLAGS ARE UP FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DEL BAY. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KTS AS OF MID-AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUE. SEAS AT THE BUOYS WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 5 OR 6 FT TUE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME 5FT SEAS AT THE MOUTH OF THE DEL BAY ALSO...SO WE WILL KEEP THE SCA GOING OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. WEATHER...SHOWERY WITH ISOLATED TSTM. OUTLOOK... WHILE WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY TUESDAY EVENING, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS MIGHT LINGER ON THE OCEAN SIDE. THE ADVISORY WAS NOT EXTENDED AT THIS TIME BECAUSE CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH. BUT BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT, WE ARE EXPECTING BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BUILDS INTO AND THEN STARTS SETTLING SOUTH OF OUR CWA. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES IN THIS JUNE TIDE CYCLE ARE OCCURRING THIS EVENING ALONG MOST OF THE ATLC NJ AND DE COASTS. FOR NJ AND DE ATLC COASTS: THIS HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE 0.2 FT FROM MINOR THRESHOLD WITHOUT ANY IMPACT FROM PRESSURE AND WIND STRESS/ COMBINED WITH A STEADY OR SLIGHTLY INCREASING POSITIVE 1.28 TO 1.57 SURGE DEPARTURES AT 545 PM DUE TO A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EPISODE THIS EVENING ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS. THE 12Z/4 GFS AND NAM VIA ETSS AND DBOFS ARE FORECASTING MDT CF THIS EVENING...THE NAM A BIT LESS EMPHATIC. A LOCALLY DEVELOPED SET OF EQUATIONS BASED ON A HISTORICAL DATABASE IS FORECAST JUST BELOW MODERATE. CONFIDENCE IN A MODERATE EVENT IS RATED AS AVERAGE...DUE TO A LACK OF COMPLETE AGREEMENT IN THE DECISION MAKING TOOLS. ESSENTIALLY I HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE THREATENING GFS BASED TIDAL FORECAST SUPPORTED BY THE 2PM AND NOW THE 445 PM POSITIVE DEPARTURES IN REAL TIME DATA IN OUR LOWER PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON TIDE CYCLE. FORTUNATELY ONSHORE SWELL AND WIND WAVE IS MINIMAL AND SO THE PRIMARY IMPACT THIS EVENING IS THE EXPECTED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF THE TIDAL INUNDATION AFFECTED ROADS...WITH ANY RELATED PROPERTY DAMAGE PROBABLY MINIMAL. TIDAL FLOOD EPISODES SHOULD NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT ALONG THE DE AND NJ ATLC COASTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENINGS BUT EXCEEDENCE OF MINOR ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ARE PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY EVENING. PHILADELPHIA: THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER IS CONTINUING TO MODEL A MINOR EVENT WITHIN AN HOUR OF THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THE TIDES MAY RUN A BIT HIGHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM REEDY POINT TO PHILADELPHIA AND NEWBOLD. OUTLOOK... WHILE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ON TUESDAY EVENING, IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL REACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEANSIDE AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AS DBFOS GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE TOO RAMBUNCTIOUS. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES START SLIDING DOWNWARD ON TUESDAY SO BY WEDNESDAY WITH A LIGHTER FLOW, ALL AREAS MAY BE FREE OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. ON CHESAPEAKE BAY, WE ARE TAKING A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH AS CBFOS GUIDANCE IS ALREADY TOO HOT. WE SUPPOSE IF WE ARE WRONG, MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS MIGHT BE REACHED WITH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. && .RIP CURRENTS... 6 FT SEA...8 SEC PERIOD AND A SYNOPTIC WIND OF 0317 IN THE 15Z-18Z PERIOD TUESDAY SHOULD EASILY PRODUCE A MDT RISK OF DANGEROUS RIPS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE FULL MOON. DEWEY BEACH WATER TEMP THIS AFTN WAS 67F. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ070-071. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012>014-020>027. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ016>019. DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002>004. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR DEZ001. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GIGI |
| #516065 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:23 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 617 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST...SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS NRN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING WEST INTO NRN ME WILL BRING SCT SHOWERS TO THE AREA. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...SKY COND...OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO WITH REGARD TO SHWR OUTLOOK FROM LAST UPDATE FOR TNGT...WITH ISOLD MENTION N AND SCT CNTRL AND DOWNEAST WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE QPF. A WEAK MID LVL S/WV ROTATING E TO W ARND THE N SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CNTRD JUST S OF NOVA SCOTIA VERY LATE TNGT INTO TUE COULD BRING MORE CVRG OF SHWRS SPCLY TUE MORN INTO ERLY AFTN. FOR NOW WITH THIS FEATURE....WE SHOW THE BEST CHC POPS OVR SE PTNS OF THE FA...USING GMOS FOR POPS AND QPF IN A SHWR REGIME WITH WEAK FORCING. SHWRS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH A LITTLE EARLY RELATIVE TO DIURNAL MAX HTG...DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN WHEN THE FA WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING S/WV ALF. OVRNGT TEMPS TNGT AND SPCLY HI TEMPS TUE WILL CONT ON THE COOL SIDE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST KEEPING REGION IN CYCLONIC FLOW INTO THURSDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12...GFS40...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POP GRIDS. FOR WIND WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GMOS DURING DAY AND GMOS AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS INITIALIZED WITH THE GMOS THEN HAVE ADJUSTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HIGHER. FOR QPF HAVE BLENDED THE GFS40...NAM80...SREF AND ECMWF. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEA BOARD MONDAY. HAVE INITIALIZED ALL GRIDS WITH GMOS. WILL ADJUST POP GRIDS PRIMARILY FOR SMOOTHING. HAVE ADJUSTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT END OF PERIOD HIGHER IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: ALL SITES ARE BEGINNING LOW VFR THIS AFTN...EXCEPT KBHB. USING GFS RH AS A BASIS OF CLG HT...WHICH DOES WELL WITH E TO NE LLVL WINDS...CLGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH LOW MVFR LIKELY AT DOWNEAST SITES. TYPICAL OF THIS TM OF YEAR...CLGS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE DURG THE DAY TUE TO LOW VFR MOST SITES BY MID TUE AFTN. SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONT ACROSS ALL MZS MOST OF TNGT. WE HAVE OPTD TO SPLIT OFF INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052 FROM THE SCA AT 08Z WITH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THERE DIMINISHING BLO SCA CRITERIA BY APPROX 4 AM EDT. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND/OR WV HTS AOA 5 FT SHOULD CONT OVR THE OUTER MZS THRU MOST OF THE DAY TUE...WITH THE SCA THERE SLATED TO END AT 22Z. WE USED A BLEND OF NAM12...GFS40 AND GMOS FOR WINDS AND WW3 FOR WV HTS...WITH THE TNGT PD AND TUE MORN PD ACTUALLY 1 TO 2 FT ABV WW3 GUIDANCE OVR THE OUTER WATERS BASED LATEST BUOY OBS WHICH WERE RUNNING SIG ABV WW3...THEN MERGING TOWARD A WW3/SWAN NAM WV GUIDANCE BY TUE EVE. SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 TO INITIALIZE WIND GRIDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THEN TRANSITION TO GMOS GRIDS. WILL REDUCE THE NAM12 WINDS BY 10 PERCENT DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. WAVES WILL USE SWAN NAM OUT TO THURSDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE WNA/4. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ052. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN |
| #516064 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:14 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 608 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. SEVERAL TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR TO FILTER SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOWING SOME ENHANCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ALIGNED NW TO SE ACRS CENTRAL VA...LINING UP W/ SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A BOUNDARY PUSHING S. HAVE BUMPED POPS TO 30-40% ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SE VA THROUGH 9 PM...WITH 20% POPS ELSEWHERE. CAA WILL LAG A FEW HOURS BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 60S BY LATE EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING...DATA SUPPORTS KEEPING A LINGERING SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS...AS NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER SRN NJ/DELAWARE PUSHES SSW. OTW...PTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT NEAR 60 SERN BEACH AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. COMBO OF COLD POOL ALOFT AND ANY HEATING FROM STRONG JUNE SUN SHUD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER JUST ABOUT ANY TIME DURING THE DAY. LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR THUNDER...SO KEPT IT OUT OF GRIDS ATTM. MUCH COOLER WITH H85 TEMPS ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE U60S NEAR THE WATER TO L70S WEST OF CHES BAY. LOWS TUESDAY IN THE 50S. SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE SEEN FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS YET ADDITIONAL TROFS PROGGED TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP CHC FOR MAINLY DIURNAL POPS IN FORECAST EACH DAY. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH PERIOD. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE L-M70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT 55-60. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE M-U70S. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAINLY QUIET WX WITH WARMING TEMPS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. UPR-LVL TROF PRESENT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK FINALLY PULLS OFFSHORE FRI. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE TROF THU NGT...BUT NOTICEABLE LACK IN MOISTURE SHUD KEEP MOST AREAS DRY. HEIGHTS RISE THRU THE DAY FRI AS UPR-LVL RIDGE BLDS OVR THE EASTERN CONUS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER A MSTLY/PRTLY SNY SKY. SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE REGION WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING...HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON SAT AND APPROACHING 90 ON SUN. UPR-LVL RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE FOR ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. EXPECT NW WINDS TO GUST AROUND 20 KT AS A FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY CAUSE A BKN/OVC 2-3K FT STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP OVER THE TAF SITES. IF THE STRATUS DECK DOES FORM...EXPECT IT IMPACT KSBY AROUND 06Z TUE AND SPREAD SOUTHWEST. GUSTY WINDS AND POP UP SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON. A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN US MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE. && .MARINE... WEAK CAA SURGE HAS BEGUN OVR NORTHERN BAY ZONES AS OF 19Z...AND IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTH OVR THE NEXT FEW HRS. HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH INHERITED SCA HAZARDS OVR THE BAY AND RIVERS THRU THIS EVNG...WITH SCA CONTINUING THRU MID MRNG TUE AS A SECONDARY SURGE IS EXPECTED ERLY TUE MRNG FOLLOWING A LULL IN THE WNDS OVRNGT. WATER TEMPS IN THE 70S IN THE BAY AND RIVERS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DECENT MIXING. NW WNDS WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO N THEN NE. NOT EXPECTING WNDS TO REACH SCA THRESHOLDS OVR THE SOUND. OVR COASTAL WATERS...SEAS WILL BLD FROM 3 TO 4 FT THIS EVNG THEN 5-6 FT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TNGT INTO TUE AS NORTHEASTERLY SWELL INCREASES. 5 FT SEAS MAY PERSIST INTO TUE NGT OVR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON EXTENDING HAZARDS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SEAS TUE AFTN. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT AND WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE AREA WED AND THU WILL LEAD TO SUB-SCA CONDS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 TO 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A FULL MOON AND ONSHORE FLOW. THE LATEST EXTRATROPICAL GUIDANCE HAS MINOR THRESHOLDS BEING MET OVER PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST SIDE OF THE LWR EASTERN SHORE...THE VIRGINIA ATLANTIC COAST...CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ALSO...A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. WATER LEVELS DURING TUESDAY EVENINGS HIGH TIDE WILL BE AROUND MINOR STAGE FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS DURING HIGH TIDE BASED ON THE LATEST MDL GUIDANCE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ024- 025. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ102. VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ095- 097>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>637. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632- 634-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654- 656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650- 652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR |
| #516063 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:03 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 602 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN LATE THURSDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 600 PM MONDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ALONG THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND HAS SLOWED IT`S PROGRESS SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS HAVE FORMED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SHOWERS SHOULD LOSE THEIR INTENSITY WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING BUT WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO TAKE MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP 20-30% POPS GOING ALL NIGHT HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE. THE MODELS WERE IN AGREEMENT THAT SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT BUT THINK THESE WILL BE MAINLY MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AT LEAST INITIALLY. ONCE NE FLOW KICKS IN LATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH IS A LITTLE BELOW MOS BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST UPWARD A FEW DEGREES IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO MATERIALIZE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE BELOW ABOUT 600 MB THRU MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE ON THE CLOUDY SIDE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 7 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES DROP OFF AND UPPER HEIGHTS DROP SLIGHTLY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS TO THE MIDDLE 70S OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. GIVEN SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 12 G/KG...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THRU THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 PM MON...BOTH 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND MATCH UP WELL WITH HPC SURFACE FEATURES. DEEP UPPER TROF WILL LINGER ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY RIDGING THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A WEST-EAST STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GULF STATES TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER SO DID NOT MENTION. BY THE END OF THE WEEK A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER RIDGING WILL BRING A WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY WARMING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/... AS OF 600 PM MONDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY VFR FORECAST THIS EVENING OUTSIDE ANY STRAY SHOWERS WHERE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN ON CEILING HEIGHTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS NE LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN USUALLY FAVORS MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BUT THE GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE INCONCLUSIVE. THE GFS/LAMP AVIATION GUIDANCE WAS FORECASTING HIGH VFR CEILINGS WHILE THE NAM WAS FORECASTING WIDESPREAD IFR. THE NAM AVIATION GUIDANCE HAS KNOWN LOW BIAS SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS TREND AND FORECAST MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT/ AS OF 230 PM MON...VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST...BECOMING LIGHT WEST ON FRIDAY...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SATURDAY. ONLY CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/... AS OF 600 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWED LATE TODAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED ALONG IT INLAND. THE FRONT IS NOW FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS AROUND 09Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT NORTHWEST WINDS TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW STRONG WILL BE THE POST FRONTAL NE FLOW BE? THE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REACH 15 KT SO WILL MAKE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. NE WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL ON TUESDAY WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE OUTER TIER OF THE COASTAL ZONES. LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT/ AS OF 230 PM MON...12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WERE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND USED A 50/50 BLEND FOR THE WINDS. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS ONLY 5-10 KNOTS AND SEAS 1-2 FEET. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC/JME |
| #516061 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:39 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 532 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... CENTER OF UPPER CLOSED LOW PULLING OFF THEN NEW ENGLAND COAST ATTM. SHOWERS PRODUCING MEASURABLE PRECIP HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO A FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A COUPLE ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES SET TO ALSO PIVOT IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...SO KEPT SCT COVERAGE IN FOR THIS EVENING...THEN ONLY ISOLD COVERAGE OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOSS OF SFC- BASED INSTABILITY. LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE...MOSTLY UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. JUDGING FROM STRENGTH OF UPSTREAM NE FLOW AND WET BULB TEMPS OVER NEW ENGLAND...THIS MAY END UP BEING A BIT TOO COOL. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ISOLD AM SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME SCT TO NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON VIA INCREASED SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM ANOTHER VORT MAX PIVOTING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WHICH SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST S OF NOVA SCOTIA AT THAT TIME. BEST AREAL COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE INLAND...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SPARK A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FROM NYC WEST INTO NE NJ. HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THEN THOSE OF TODAY...65-70. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD SOUTHWARD TUE NIGHT...WHICH ALONG WITH LOSS OD DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BRING AN END TO SHOWERS TUE NIGHT. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TOUGH TO TIME ANY INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE TROUGH. ANY OF THESE FEATURES COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DIURNAL PRECIP EXPECTED THIS TIME FRAME DURING MAX HEATING...INCREASED INSTABILITY. HIGHEST COVERAGE WOULD BE OVER THE INTERIOR DUE TO THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY. RIDGE BUILDS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY THIS TIME FRAME...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN CHECK FOR MAINLY SHOWERS AND NOT MUCH THUNDER. AS FOR TEMPS...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS. HOWEVER...WITH RIDGE BUILDING...AIR MASS WARMS AND WE SHOULD SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE MOVES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AT TIMES EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS IS IN TEMPO GROUPS WITHIN TAFS. ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY OCCUR INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE SOUTH OF THE NYC TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL DRYING LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP CEILINGS VFR. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS INTO THIS EVENING EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOWER CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS COULD STAY VFR. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOWER CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS COULD STAY VFR. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOWER CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS COULD STAY VFR. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOWER CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS COULD STAY VFR. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOWER CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS COULD STAY VFR. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOWER CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS COULD STAY VFR. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY...VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF CEILINGS 2500 FT TO 3000 FT WITH ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...MAINLY IN THE AFT/EARLY EVE HOURS. .SATURDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO WINDS/SEAS AS CONDS WERE SLIGHTLY HIGH TO START...MAINLY OVER WESTERN OCEAN WATERS. NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVE...SO SCA FOR MOST OF THE WATERS LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ADDED PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS TO THE ADVY AS WELL DUE TO EXPOSED NE FETCH...BUT REMOVED WRN LI SOUND FROM THE ADVY AS GUSTS THERE SHOULD COME UP SHORT. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE ON TUE...BUT LINGERING OCEAN SEAS OVER 5 FT LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF TUE...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE EVENING OUT EAST. DID NOT YET EXTEND SCA FOR THE ERN WATERS DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. WEAK FLOW AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... SIGNIFICANT AREA QPF OVER 1/2 INCH NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH MAINLY SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY. LOCAL DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT HIGH TIDES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND MODERATE NE FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST. SIMILAR TIDAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT...BEFORE TIDAL LEVELS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ009-010. NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ072- 074-075-079>081-178-179. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-073-078-176-177. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ006. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ |
| #516060 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:27 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 521 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... CENTER OF UPPER CLOSED LOW PULLING OFF THEN NEW ENGLAND COAST ATTM. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN CT AND CENTRAL/EASTERN LONG ISLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A COUPLE ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES SET TO ALSO PIVOT IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...SO KEPT SCT COVERAGE IN FOR THIS EVENING... THEN ONLY ISOLD COVERAGE OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOSS OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE...MOSTLY UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. JUDGING FROM STRENGTH OF UPSTREAM NE FLOW AND WET BULB TEMPS OVER NEW ENGLAND...THIS MAY END UP BEING A BIT TOO COOL. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ISOLD AM SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME SCT TO NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON VIA INCREASED SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM ANOTHER VORT MAX PIVOTING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WHICH SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST S OF NOVA SCOTIA AT THAT TIME. BEST AREAL COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE INLAND...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SPARK A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FROM NYC WEST INTO NE NJ. HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THEN THOSE OF TODAY...65-70. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD SOUTHWARD TUE NIGHT...WHICH ALONG WITH LOSS OD DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BRING AN END TO SHOWERS TUE NIGHT. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TOUGH TO TIME ANY INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE TROUGH. ANY OF THESE FEATURES COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DIURNAL PRECIP EXPECTED THIS TIME FRAME DURING MAX HEATING...INCREASED INSTABILITY. HIGHEST COVERAGE WOULD BE OVER THE INTERIOR DUE TO THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY. RIDGE BUILDS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY THIS TIME FRAME...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN CHECK FOR MAINLY SHOWERS AND NOT MUCH THUNDER. AS FOR TEMPS...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS. HOWEVER...WITH RIDGE BUILDING...AIR MASS WARMS AND WE SHOULD SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE MOVES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AT TIMES EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS IS IN TEMPO GROUPS WITHIN TAFS. ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY OCCUR INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE SOUTH OF THE NYC TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL DRYING LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP CEILINGS VFR. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS INTO THIS EVENING EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOWER CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS COULD STAY VFR. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOWER CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS COULD STAY VFR. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOWER CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS COULD STAY VFR. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOWER CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS COULD STAY VFR. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOWER CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS COULD STAY VFR. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOWER CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS COULD STAY VFR. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY...VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF CEILINGS 2500 FT TO 3000 FT WITH ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...MAINLY IN THE AFT/EARLY EVE HOURS. .SATURDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... NE FLOW IS STRENGTHENING AS EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KT AT COASTAL LAND STATIONS OVER SE CT AND SEAS AT BUOY 44097 SE OF BLOCK ISLAND NOW AT 5 FT...SO SCA FOR MOST OF THE WATERS LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ADDED PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS TO THE ADVY AS WELL DUE TO EXPOSED NE FETCH...BUT REMOVED WRN LI SOUND FROM THE ADVY AS GUSTS THERE SHOULD COME UP SHORT. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE ON TUE...BUT LINGERING OCEAN SEAS OVER 5 FT LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF TUE...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE EVENING OUT EAST. DID NOT YET EXTEND SCA FOR THE ERN WATERS DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. WEAK FLOW AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... SIGNIFICANT AREA QPF OVER 1/2 INCH NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH MAINLY SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY. LOCAL DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT HIGH TIDES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND MODERATE NE FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST. SIMILAR TIDAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT...BEFORE TIDAL LEVELS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ009-010. NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ072- 074-075-079>081-178-179. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-073-078-176-177. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ006. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN/NV |
| #516059 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:09 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 507 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COASTS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. BEHIND IT, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY, WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THEN SETTLE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... SHOWERY UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER/COLD LOW CIRCULATING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOCAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS. A BIT OF SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY HAIL REPORTS AS OF YET. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LOW 50S MOST OTHER AREAS. WINDS WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... MUCH OF THE SAME WEATHER ON TUESDAY AS WAS FOR TODAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY...BUT ENOUGH COLD AIR LINGERS ALOFT AND MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. POPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW...WITH THE NORTHERN AREAS MORE FAVORED...BEING CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE WILL REMAIN COOL WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. A FEW DOWNPOURS/GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR TUE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE GFS INITIALIZATION WAS SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB SO BY THIS TIME PERIOD WE LEANED MORE TOWARD ITS DIRECTION. THERE WILL BE A SLOW UNRAVELING OF THE REX BLOCK GOING FORWARD WITH WARMER WEATHER RETURNING AS THE LONG TERM PROGRESSES. SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND TUESDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTING ANY THUNDER. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK CAPABLE OF TRAPPING IN CLOUDS BELOW THE WEAK INVERSION SO ARE GOING WITH A CLEAR(ER) SOLUTION OVERNIGHT. THUS WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER GFS MOS MINS ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE RADIATING PARTS OF THE SERN PART OF OUR CWA. LESS CONFIDENCE ABOUT MINS NORTHWEST. MORE SELF DESTRUCT SUN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THE FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS WELL AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVES ARE FAVORING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA MORE SO THAN THE SOUTHEAST. THE FORECAST CONVECTIVE AND 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE TO MAX TEMPS. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THUNDER POSSIBLE EARLY. SOME AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS BEGINNING SO WE UPPED THE MINS ABOUT A CATEGORY FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. ON THURSDAY DAY, THE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS MORE UNIVERSALLY PLACED IN OUR CWA PLUS THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FCST QVEC CONVERGENCE AS THE SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED THROUGH THE BACK DOOR IN THE SREF POPS AS THEY ARE HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY. WE TRENDED OUR POPS HIER, BUT WANT TO SEE MORE SUSTAINED CORROBORATION BEFORE INTRODUCING LIKELY POPS. LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WE ARE SEEING ABOUT AN UPTICK IN THE AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND HIER FCST CONVECTIVE TEMPS SO MAX TEMPS WERE NUDGED HIER BY ABOUT 2-4F FROM WEDNESDAY. WE START LOSING OUR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY DAY, SO POPS ARE MUCH LOWER AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF DELMARVA ON FRIDAY DAY. AS THE 500MB RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN. 90 BY NEXT MONDAY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR OUR CWA. WE WILL ALSO HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH WE SUPPOSE SOME SYSTEMS COMING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MIGHT MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. CONFIDENCE AND TIMING ABOUT THIS ARE LESS THAN AVERAGE, SO WHERE WE DO HAVE POPS, THEY WERE KEPT PRETTY LOW. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH 02Z...SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS. OCNLY A SHOWER BRINGS IFR CIGS OR VSBYS TO ONE OF THE TERMINALS WITH A FEW DOWNPOURS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THESE LOWER CONDS DO NOT LAST VERY LONG HOWEVER. NNE WIND OCNL G 15 KTS. OVERNIGHT AFTER 02Z...MOSTLY VFR BUT SOME FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF SKY COVER BECOMES SCT OR CLR. TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE EAST...BUT OVERALL FCST REMAINS SIMILAR WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. WINDS TUE WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY AT 10 TO 15 KTS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. NO WIND RELATED ISSUES EXPECTED. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH LESS IF ANY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. NO WIND RELATED ISSUES EXPECTED. && .MARINE... SCA FLAGS ARE UP FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DEL BAY. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KTS AS OF MID-AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUE. SEAS ON THE LOWER DEL BAY WERE REPORTED AS 2 TO 4 FT BY THE CM-LEWES FERRY AND MOSTLY 3 TO 4 FT AT THE BUOYS ATTM. SEAS AT THE BUOYS WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO 5 FT SHORTLY AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO TUE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME 5FT SEAS AT THE MOUTH OF THE DEL BAY ALSO...SO WE WILL KEEP THE SCA GOING OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. WEATHER...SHOWERY WITH ISOLATED TSTM. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/SEAS IN ANY TSTM WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK... WHILE WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY TUESDAY EVENING, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS MIGHT LINGER ON THE OCEAN SIDE. THE ADVISORY WAS NOT EXTENDED AT THIS TIME BECAUSE CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH. BUT BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT, WE ARE EXPECTING BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BUILDS INTO AND THEN STARTS SETTLING SOUTH OF OUR CWA. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES IN THIS JUNE TIDE CYCLE ARE OCCURRING THIS EVENING ALONG MOST OF THE ATLC NJ AND DE COASTS. FOR NJ AND DE ATLC COASTS: THIS HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE COMBINED STEADY POSITIVE 1.25 TO 1.46 SURGE DEPARTURES DUE TO A DEVELOPING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EPISODE THIS EVENING ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS. THE 12Z/4 GFS AND NAM VIA ETSS AND DBOFS ARE FORECASTING MDT CF THIS EVENING...THE NAM A BIT LESS EMPHATIC. A LOCALLY DEVELOPED SET OF EQUATIONS BASED ON A HISTORICAL DATABASE IS FORECAST JUST BELOW MODERATE. CONFIDENCE IN A MODERATE EVENT IS RATED AS AVERAGE...DUE TO A LACK OF COMPLETE AGREEMENT IN THE DECISION MAKING TOOLS. ESSENTIALLY I HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE THREATENING GFS BASED TIDAL FORECAST SUPPORTED BY THE 2PM AND NOW THE 445 PM POSITIVE DEPARTURES IN REAL TIME DATA IN OUR LOWER PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON TIDE CYCLE. FORTUNATELY ONSHORE SWELL AND WIND WAVE IS MINIMAL AND SO THE PRIMARY IMPACT THIS EVENING IS THE EXPECTED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF THE TIDAL INUNDATION AFFECTED ROADS...WITH ANY RELATED PROPERTY DAMAGE PROBABLY MINIMAL. TIDAL FLOOD EPISODES SHOULD NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT ALONG THE DE AND NJ ATLC COASTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENINGS BUT EXCEEDENCE OF MINOR ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ARE PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY EVENING. PHILADELPHIA: THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER IS CONTINUING TO MODEL A MINOR EVENT WITHIN AN HOUR OF THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THE TIDES MAY RUN A BIT HIGHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM REEDY POINT TO PHILADELPHIA AND NEWBOLD. OUTLOOK... WHILE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ON TUESDAY EVENING, IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL REACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEANSIDE AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AS DBFOS GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE TOO RAMBUNCTIOUS. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES START SLIDING DOWNWARD ON TUESDAY SO BY WEDNESDAY WITH A LIGHTER FLOW, ALL AREAS MAY BE FREE OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. ON CHESAPEAKE BAY, WE ARE TAKING A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH AS CBFOS GUIDANCE IS ALREADY TOO HOT. WE SUPPOSE IF WE ARE WRONG, MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS MIGHT BE REACHED WITH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. && .RIP CURRENTS... 6 FT SEA...8 SEC PERIOD AND A SYNOPTIC WIND OF 0317 IN THE 15Z-18Z PERIOD TUESDAY SHOULD EASILY PRODUCE A MDT RISK OF DANGEROUS RIPS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE FULL MOON. DEWEY BEACH WATER TEMP THIS AFTN WAS 67F. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ070-071. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012>014-020>027. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ016>019. DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002>004. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR DEZ001. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GIGI |
| #516058 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:05 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 359 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF RIDGES WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CU HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. TO THE NORTH...A WEAK COOL FRONT IS DRAPED OVER OVER OK/AR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS LOOKS TO BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER. TONIGHT WILL SEE TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS A BIT WARMER ALONG THE COAST BY SUNRISE. EARLY MRNG FOG WILL BURN-OFF AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH OVER THE SE GULF RETREATS BACK TO THE EAST AS THE FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH TMRW AFTN. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK A DEGREE OR TWO. ISOLATED SHOWERS TMRW AFTN/EVE TIME FRAME AS GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL AND THE COMBINATION OF THE SEA BREEZE...MOISTURE... AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT. ON WEDNESDAY THE FRONT GETS A BIT CLOSER AND MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE YUCATAN WILL PUSH INTO SE TX AND SRN LA. THE FRONT OVER AR IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE COAST BEFORE FALLING APART ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR STORMS DRG THE AFTERNOON HRS. AFTN TEMPS WILL FALL A BIT MORE. THIS PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL BACK OFF A BIT BUT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 74 90 72 90 73 / 10 20 20 40 20 KBPT 75 91 74 89 73 / 10 20 20 40 20 KAEX 71 91 71 90 69 / 10 20 20 40 20 KLFT 72 90 72 90 72 / 10 20 20 40 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516057 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 348 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROF PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROF ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUE TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS FEATURE...THE SURFACE ANALYSIS IS COMPLEX WITH TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION...THE FIRST OF WHICH HAS MOVED TO NEAR THE COAST WHILE THE SECOND HAS ADVANCED MORE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. BASED ON THE LATEST RUC HRRR...EXPECT THAT THE FIRST STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WILL RETURN SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT DUE TO SYNOPTIC SCALE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DUE FROM A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. ADDING TO THE COMPLEX MIX IS A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX...MCV...SEEN IN THE SATELLITE LOOP OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS THAT HAS RECENTLY LED TO VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE RUC HRRR DEVELOPS THIS CONVECTION INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...MCS...WHICH LATER WEAKENS WHILE ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BY LATE THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR WEAKENING CONVECTION CONTINUING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A COMPLEX BLEND OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROF MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH AT LEAST ONE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER DEPENDING ON HOW THE OVERNIGHT MCS EVOLVES...LEADS TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MCV IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO HAVE MODERATE DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS WITH A 10C DEWPOINT DEPRESSION NOTED AT 700 MB. THIS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL AID IN ENHANCING DOWNDRAFTS...ALOFT WITH SUBCLOUD EVAPORATION. 0-1 KM MLCAPES INCREASE TO NEAR 2500 J/KG...POSSIBLY HIGHER AROUND 3000...AND WITH THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR SEE CONTINUE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE HIGHEST POPS SHIFT GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROF AND WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WILL STAY WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FURTHER INLAND. 0-1 KM MLCAPES AGAIN INCREASE TO NEAR 2500 J/KG THOUGH THIS BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES DUE TO DECREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE INTERIOR PORTION. MAY AGAIN SEE SOME STRONG STORMS ON WEDNESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE LONGWAVE TROF BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND...THEN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS. HEAT INDICES MAY REACH 100 TO 105 OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. /29 .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES FROM THE EASTERN STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SMALL POPS BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES. /29 && .AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...A SERIES OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM DECAYED TSRA ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN AL WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS WITH THE INITIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BECOMING LESS DEFINED AS THE FEATURE MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH DEEPER...DRIER AIR. AS A RESULT...TSRA POTENTIAL ALONG THE OUTFLOW...LOOKS MINIMAL. SKY AND VSBY OK THRU 05.06Z. MORNING MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 05.12Z. /10 && .MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE LOWER GULF. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A CATEGORY AS THE FRONT NEARS AND INTERACTS WITH THE GULF HIGH. HAVE HEADLINED FOR SMALL CRAFT TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE NEAR TERM. SEAS TRENDING HIGHER...AVERAGING 3 TO 4 FEET THE NEXT FEW PERIODS. WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR STORMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED RAIN COOLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 04.12Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM...THE LATEST FORECAST CALLS FOR THE FRONT TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY AND BEGIN TO STALL. THE FRONT DISSIPATES LATE FRIDAY AS A BETTER DEFINED SOUTHEAST FLOW SETS UP...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. /10 && .FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND THEN DISSIPATES. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 73 91 72 91 / 10 50 40 60 PENSACOLA 77 91 76 89 / 10 50 40 60 DESTIN 76 88 76 86 / 10 50 40 50 EVERGREEN 70 92 68 91 / 20 70 40 40 WAYNESBORO 69 91 67 91 / 40 70 30 40 CAMDEN 70 90 66 90 / 40 70 30 30 CRESTVIEW 69 93 70 92 / 20 60 40 60 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516056 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 340 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... THE WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AND N TX THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN LIFTING THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE MODELS THEN DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND WITH HOW FAR SOUTHWEST A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INTO SE TX. THE MAIN IDEA FROM THE MODELS IS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PW/S ON BOTH MODELS WERE SIMILAR TO THE MODEL OUTPUT FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH VALUES FORECASTED BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2 INCHES. WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL CONFINED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW. THE MODELS SLOWED DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF THE WEAKNESS ALOFT AND SLOWLY MOVE IT TOWARD THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN IF THE UPPER TROUGH DOES MOVE EAST EARLIER...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN SET UP. 40 && .MARINE... LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND BRINGING MORE EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE COAST. IN ADDITION TO THIS FRONT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING MID WEEK AND PERSISTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 38 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ AVIATION... LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND SCATTERED OUT AND ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS NOW REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH SOME DECOUPLING OF WINDS AFTER SUNSET. MAIN CONCERN THIS ISSUANCE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS OR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH IFR CIGS FROM IAH NORTHWARD AROUND 12Z. GIVEN THE MODEL PERFORMANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AM HESITANT TO WRITE BKN/OVC CIGS INTO THE FORECAST SO HAVE JUST LOWERED CLOUD HEIGHTS A BIT FOR NOW. THAT SAID...WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISING IF THAT DECK DOES FILL IN AND WE SEE A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING SIMILAR TO TODAY. EXPECTING GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. 38 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 93 73 93 73 / 10 20 20 40 30 HOUSTON (IAH) 74 94 74 92 73 / 10 20 20 40 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 80 88 78 86 78 / 10 20 20 40 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516055 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:32 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 322 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR ST. LOUIS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WESTWARD THROUGH KANSAS AND INTO COLORADO. LOCALLY...TEMPERATURES HAVE ONCE AGAIN RISEN INTO THE LOWER 90S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OVER 100 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. && .DISCUSSION... EXPECT WETTER CONDITIONS THIS WEEK AS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE LONGER WAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT DOMINATES THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD AS WELL. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO IMPACT THE GULF SOUTH. THE BEST COVERAGE FOR TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THUS...WILL CARRY A GRADIENT OF 50 POPS TO THE NORTH AND 25 POPS ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO COASTAL LA. THE MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH. HOWEVER...ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ROUGHLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 10/12 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP THE CONVECTIVE FOCUS OVER THE AREA FOR A COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE BEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH 40 TO 50 POPS ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. BY THURSDAY... THE DISSIPATING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD A BIT WHICH SHOULD KEEP BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. AS OF THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS...FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT DRY DAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED JUST OFF THE COAST. THUS...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CURRENTLY IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION...IF THE FRONT LINGERS FARTHER TO THE NORTH...THEN THE CURRENT POP FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD. ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM TEXAS. AS IT DOES SO...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL OPEN UP THE GULF BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN AND SET UP...BUT THE ECMWF IS A BIT WETTER WITH HIGHER POPS AND QPF ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH BOTH OF THESE SOLUTIONS COMPLETELY REASONABLE...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR OR ABOVE 040. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 020 AND POSSIBLY VSBYS 3-5 NM /LOWER AT KMCB/ ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH 14-15Z TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AGAIN AFTER MID MORNING TUESDAY...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF LOWER CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .MARINE... BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE A NOCTURNAL COASTAL JET FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL RISE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...AND WILL INCLUDE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES TO COVER THIS THREAT. THE WINDS SHOULD EASE A BIT DURING THE DAY...SO THE HEADLINE WILL ONLY BE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL NEAR 15 KNOTS AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE RIVER...BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA. BEGINNING TUESDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA...WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS. && DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...GREEN. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...NONE. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 71 90 70 90 / 10 40 40 50 BTR 73 92 74 92 / 10 30 30 50 ASD 73 91 74 90 / 10 30 40 50 MSY 75 91 75 90 / 10 30 30 40 GPT 75 89 74 89 / 10 30 40 50 PQL 72 91 72 90 / 10 30 40 50 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516054 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:24 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 322 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO POOL IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ADVERTISED THROUGH PREVIOUS AFDS STILL LINGERS ALOFT...STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OFF OF THE SIERRA MADRE WITH CURRENT AFTERNOON RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWING ONGOING CONVECTION. WITH AREAS OF INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DECENT LAPSE RATES FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...ALONG WITH CAPE VALUES PROGGED OVER 2000 J/KG...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CLOSER WITH A BETTER CHANCE TO AFFECT THE FAR WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. SHEARING IS LACKING...SO AM THINKING THAT MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA... HOWEVER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEFORE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 OR GREATER. DECENT 0-1KM LAPSE RATES OVER THE WATERS COMBINED WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN WILL LEAD TO STREAMER SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH SHOWERS SLOWLY MOVING INLAND AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MENTIONED THUNDER BY THE LATE MORNING DUE TO HEATING COMBINED WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEABREEZE. CONCERNS FOLLOW WITH THUNDER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH OF THE CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING MOVING SOUTHWARD. CURRENTLY...BEST DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF STORMS DO MOVE FAR SOUTH ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE...THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. AS FOR NOW...THINKING TIMING MAY BE OFF SO WILL KEEP ONLY SILENT POPS FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS...WITH CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR FAR WESTERN WEBB FOR STORMS MOVING OUT OF MEXICO. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF STREAMER SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS ARE TRENDING WETTER IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN RELATIVE GOOD AGREEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BENEATH THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO...SUCH THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...EVENTUALLY MOVING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SFC-700MB FLOW WEAKENS AND TURNS EAST WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. GRADUAL MOISTENING TAKES PLACE...WITH PWATS REACHING 135% OF NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WITH WEAKNESS ALOFT DRIFTING TOWARDS THE REGION THIS SPELLS BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED TYPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY KICK NORTHEAST TOWARDS LOUISIANA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POP CHANCES THEN EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. HAVE RAISED POPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY INTO THE CHANCE/SCATTERED CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. QPF AMOUNTS LIKELY TO HIGHEST DURING THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIME PERIODS. THE 12Z CANADIAN IS MOST BULLISH SHOWING MUCH OF THE AREA GETTING 2 TO 4 INCHES. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING BETWEEN 1/2 TO 2 INCHES. SHOULD MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE... POPS MAY LIKELY GO MUCH HIGHER IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TEMPS...SHOWED GRADUAL DECREASING TREND IN HIGHS THU-SAT...THEN WARMING AGAIN SUN-MON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 75 91 75 92 74 / 10 20 10 20 10 VICTORIA 75 93 73 95 73 / 10 20 20 20 10 LAREDO 77 101 77 102 76 / 20 10 10 20 20 ALICE 75 95 73 97 73 / 10 20 10 20 10 ROCKPORT 79 89 78 89 78 / 10 20 20 20 20 COTULLA 75 98 74 98 73 / 10 10 10 20 20 KINGSVILLE 75 94 76 95 74 / 10 20 10 20 10 NAVY CORPUS 79 90 77 90 77 / 10 20 20 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516052 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:17 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 1000 AM HST MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. ENHANCED TRADE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE INTO TUESDAY. && .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW NEAR 19N153W...OR ABOUT 150 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO. THIS LOW IS MOVING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...WITH A WEAKENING FRONT TO THE FAR NORTHEAST. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM HILO AND LIHUE SHOW INVERSIONS NEAR 7KFT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS RANGING FROM 1.1 INCHES AT LIHUE TO 1.3 INCHES AT HILO. AMSU/SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING SHOWS A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE JUST EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES. 12Z MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...SHOWING IT WEAKENING AS IT TURNS WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND. THE GFS INITIALIZED 500MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 2C COLDER THAN THE ECMWF IN THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW. BASED ON THE PERSISTENT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN OFFSHORE WATERS...AM INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARD THE MORE UNSTABLE GFS SOLUTION. HOWEVER... THE GFS KEEPS THE COLD POOL EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WHILE TAKING THE LOW TO THE WEST. THE STEEPEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACTUALLY AFFECT THE BIG ISLAND ON TUESDAY. THIS LINES UP WITH TIMING OF CONVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN LESS PERSISTENT WITHIN THE CORE OF THE LOW...BUT MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLIER. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BIG ISLAND FOR THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...AND ALSO HAVE A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS INTERIOR BIG ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT HAS ALSO TIGHTENED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE 12Z LIHUE SOUNDING SHOWED 45 KNOTS OF WIND JUST OVER 700MB...AND WINDS ACROSS BOTH MAUI AND BIG ISLAND SUMMITS INCREASED OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON MAUI HAVE SHOWN A DOWNWARD TREND DURING THE MORNING...BUT REMAINS NEAR/ABOVE THE ADVISORY LEVEL OF 30 MPH. THE HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY...MAY NEED TO BE DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY. ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO STABILIZE BEHIND THE UPPER LOW...BUT RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE STATE WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FAR TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY...AND REMAIN IN THAT AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WINDS ACROSS THE STATE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY AND GUSTY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE THAT THE DIRECTION WILL VEER TO MORE OF A DUE EASTERLY DIRECTION BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS WITH BRIEF MVFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. AIRMET TANGO WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURB S THROUGH W OF MTNS...DUE TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ISLAND TERRAIN. A LOW ALOFT EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND HAS INCREASED NE WINDS ABOVE THE SUMMITS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. && .MARINE... LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADE WINDS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE DROPPED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT THE GRADIENT BETWEEN BUOY 51000 NORTHEAST OF THE STATE AND BUOY 51002 SOUTH OF THE STATE HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT STEADY. THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHANNELS AND TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS SUCH AS MAALAEA BAY AND NEAR SOUTH POINT THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SOME ZONES WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR HALEAKALA SUMMIT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL- KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS. && $$ |
| #516051 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:17 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 412 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... THIS AFTERNOON...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED AND ONGOING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT THERE WILL JUST BE A FEW ISOLATED LINGERING SHOWERS BUT NO FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT THE REGION WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK NVA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY KICKING OFF A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST EXTENDING SE TO KY. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW AREA EXPANDING IN SIZE WITH DEEP CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. CONFIDENCE IN THE STATE OF ORGANIZATION OF THIS CLUSTER ONCE IT GETS IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT IS LOW...BUT IT APPEARS THAT AT THE VERY LEAST AN AREA OF REMNANT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT. I HAVE A PLACED A PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE FOLLOWED BY RAMPING UP TO CHANCE FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 09Z. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND IT APPEARS WE WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH FLOW IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WE SHOULD MAINTAIN ENOUGH RESIDUAL MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO KEEP SKY MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... TUESDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DESCEND SOUTHWARD...WHILE ABUNDANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSES THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN WITHIN DEEPER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. WILL INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE 40 PERCENT RANGE BY MIDDAY...WITH NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. SEVERAL FACTORS SUGGEST THAT STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ZONES. THE REGION WILL FALL WITHIN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ACCORDINGLY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR SKY COVER TRENDS...AS THICK CLOUDS COULD LIMIT DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT MID WEEK...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITHIN THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH. AS A RESULT...EXPECT FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOLID SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGHEST RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED SOUTH OF THE LINGERING FRONT. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITHIN NORTHEAST FLOW...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LIKELY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY...PUSHING THE SURFACE FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT/SUN. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED AND MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. THE KSAV TAF HAS BEEN AMENDED TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER. AFTER THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT RESTRICTED CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL A BIT MIXED ON THE LIKELIHOOD...SO THE TAFS REMAIN VFR WITH THIS PACKAGE. AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ITS EXACTLY LOCATION AND TIMING IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF PERIODIC SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY...AS A STALLED FRONT LINGERS OVER/NEAR THE AREA. && .MARINE... THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR ALL WATERS. TONIGHT...ONCE THE ONGOING CONVECTION DROPS SOUTH OF THE GA WATERS NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY MOST OF THE NIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 10-15 KTS ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 2-3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-4 FT BEYOND. TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...AS MUCH DEPENDS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LINGERING FRONT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODIC WIND/WAVE INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... BASED ON THE EXTRA-TROPICAL GUIDANCE...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL SC/GA COASTAL AREAS. THROUGH MID WEEK...PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES COULD PRODUCE MINOR SALT WATER FLOODING DURING EACH EVENING HIGH TIDE. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-139-141. SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>051. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #516050 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:08 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 357 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE REGION. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 355 PM MONDAY...STRATIFORM RAIN LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS HALLMARK SIGNATURE OF JET DYNAMICS (ELONGATED COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND RACES OFF TO THE EAST. LOOKS LIKE A LULL IN POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON PAST 1800 UTC THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. GFS OMEGA FIELDS SHOW TWO AREAS OF FORCING FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FIRST FROM 0600-1200 UTC WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH THE FRONT. SECOND...MID LEVEL OMEGA AROUND 500MB CLOSER TO 1200 UTC WITH THE FEATURE NOW IN ILLINOIS. WILL HAVE A DRY PERIOD FOR SEVERAL HOURS FROM THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 0600 UTC THEN FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS TRENDS. CONSIDERING ALL OF THE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FLOATING AROUND...ADDED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO OVERNIGHT MINS ACROSS THE BOARD. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 355 PM MONDAY...COMPLEX AND MUDDLED FORECAST DUE TO TIMING OF UPPER IMPULSES MOVING RATHER SWIFTLY DOWN THE WEST PORTIONS OF AN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE...AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MAY STALL OVER OUR VERY SOUTHERN ZONES. ONE IMPULSE OVER ILLINOIS PRESENTLY WILL DROP SE IMPACTING OUR ZONES WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY MORNING AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY IN AN E-W FASHION SETTLES...WE MAY SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA THROUGH TUESDAY...PERHAPS FAVORED OVER SC. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN 4-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUE/WED...WHEREAS MIN TEMPS DUR TO CLOUDS COULD HOLD NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND HIGH TIDE...BUT AFTER THIS ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL WANE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. ON THURSDAY. LOCALLY THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO BELOW CLIMO TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE FURTHER MODULATED BY THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER ACTING TO INHIBIT INSOLATION. VERY SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY MAINLY EARLY IN THE DAY. ONE FINAL PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH ACTING TO SWING IT OFF THE COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY CROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS OR BE A BIT FURTHER EAST. EITHER WAY THE COOL SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL NOT BEAR MUCH OR ANY INSTABILITY SO ANY PRECIP GENERATED WILL EITHER BE STRATIFORM OR SHALLOW CONVECTION AND NOT LEAD TO APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS AT ALL ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY IS STARTING TO LOOK DRIER DUE THE THE FRONT SLIPPING SO FAR TO THE SOUTH. THE SECOND PORTION OF THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY ON WILL FEATURE MUCH DIFFERENT WEATHER. THE EXIT OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW BUILDING HEIGHTS FROM THE WEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIMILARLY SHIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO AN OFFSHORE POSITION. SKY COVER SHOULD IMPROVE AND TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT TO CLIMO OR ABOVE. DEWPOINTS MUCH MORE TYPICAL OF JUNE WILL ALSO BE BACK IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 19Z MONDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF POTENTIAL BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IS ALREADY INFILTRATING IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. EARLIER TODAY LIGHT SHOWERS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL...CREATING BRIEF MVFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS LIKELY INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATTM...CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED REGARDING EXACT TIMING OF EVENTS...THUS HAVE OPTED TO ONLY HAVE VCTS/VCSH IN CURRENT FCST. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTH BECOMING LIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FROPA. RESIDUAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS ANTICIPATED AS DEPICTED BY CURRENT TIME-HEIGHT/FCST SOUNDING ANALYSIS. FOR NOW HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ANY RESTRICTIONS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 355 PM MONDAY...MAIN EVENT FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THE WIND SHIFT OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE WINDS VEER FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY BY 1200 UTC. THIS WILL TAKE PLACE PRIMARILY DURING THE 0600 -1200 UTC TIME FRAME. ESSENTIALLY NO COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY SO WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ON THE LOWER END OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE. LATEST SPECTRAL PLOTS SHOW THE WAVE SPECTRUM DOMINATED BY SIX SECOND WIND WAVES WITH A SUBTLE 15 SECOND PERIOD. SHOULD SEE THIS SPECTRUM CONTINUE AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 355 PM MONDAY...VARIABLE BUT LIGHT WINDS INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE WATERS. BY TUESDAY AFTN PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL...VEERING TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH ONE LOW PRESSURE WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY...AND PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA...MOUNTING NE WINDS IN RESPONSE COULD BRING SEAS TO A 4-5 FOOT RANGE N OF CAPE FEAR AND OVER THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY...BUT ADVISORIES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE NEEDED...BUT CAUTIONARY STATEMENT POTENTIALLY MAY BE. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH DAY OVER THE WATERS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 355 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING A LIGHT ONSHORE/EASTERLY WIND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NE VS SOUTHEAST HINGING UPON WHETHER OR NOT A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTH. EITHER WAY WIND SPEED WILL BE CAPPED AT 10KT OR SO AND THE RESULTING SEAS QUITE SMALL IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE SWELL. THE EXIT OF THE LOW PAIRED WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH ON FRIDAY WILL BACK WINDS TO N OR NW AND COULD RESULT IN A SHORT LIVED INCREASE IN SPEED OF 5 KT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST AND QUITE VARIABLE ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY FINDS ITSELF CENTERED OFFSHORE FOR A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT LOCALLY LATE IN THE DAY OR BY NIGHTTIME. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #516048 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:00 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 337 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COASTS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. BEHIND IT, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY, WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THEN SETTLE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... SHOWERY UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER/COLD LOW CIRCULATING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOCAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS. A BIT OF SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY HAIL REPORTS AS OF YET. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LOW 50S MOST OTHER AREAS. WINDS WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... MUCH OF THE SAME WEATHER ON TUESDAY AS WAS FOR TODAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY...BUT ENOUGH COLD AIR LINGERS ALOFT AND MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. POPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW...WITH THE NORTHERN AREAS MORE FAVORED...BEING CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE WILL REMAIN COOL WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. A FEW DOWNPOURS/GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR TUE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE GFS INITIALIZATION WAS SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB SO BY THIS TIME PERIOD WE LEANED MORE TOWARD ITS DIRECTION. THERE WILL BE A SLOW UNRAVELING OF THE REX BLOCK GOING FORWARD WITH WARMER WEATHER RETURNING AS THE LONG TERM PROGRESSES. SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND TUESDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTING ANY THUNDER. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK CAPABLE OF TRAPPING IN CLOUDS BELOW THE WEAK INVERSION SO ARE GOING WITH A CLEAR(ER) SOLUTION OVERNIGHT. THUS WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER GFS MOS MINS ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE RADIATING PARTS OF THE SERN PART OF OUR CWA. LESS CONFIDENCE ABOUT MINS NORTHWEST. MORE SELF DESTRUCT SUN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THE FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS WELL AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVES ARE FAVORING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA MORE SO THAN THE SOUTHEAST. THE FORECAST CONVECTIVE AND 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE TO MAX TEMPS. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THUNDER POSSIBLE EARLY. SOME AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS BEGINNING SO WE UPPED THE MINS ABOUT A CATEGORY FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. ON THURSDAY DAY, THE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS MORE UNIVERSALLY PLACED IN OUR CWA PLUS THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FCST QVEC CONVERGENCE AS THE SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED THROUGH THE BACK DOOR IN THE SREF POPS AS THEY ARE HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY. WE TRENDED OUR POPS HIER, BUT WANT TO SEE MORE SUSTAINED CORROBORATION BEFORE INTRODUCING LIKELY POPS. LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WE ARE SEEING ABOUT AN UPTICK IN THE AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND HIER FCST CONVECTIVE TEMPS SO MAX TEMPS WERE NUDGED HIER BY ABOUT 2-4F FROM WEDNESDAY. WE START LOSING OUR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY DAY, SO POPS ARE MUCH LOWER AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF DELMARVA ON FRIDAY DAY. AS THE 500MB RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN. 90 BY NEXT MONDAY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR OUR CWA. WE WILL ALSO HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH WE SUPPOSE SOME SYSTEMS COMING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MIGHT MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. CONFIDENCE AND TIMING ABOUT THIS ARE LESS THAN AVERAGE, SO WHERE WE DO HAVE POPS, THEY WERE KEPT PRETTY LOW. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THE SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS. OCNLY A SHOWER BRINGS LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO ONE OF THE TERMINALS WITH A FEW DOWNPOURS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. LOCAL MVFR/IFR DOES NOT LAST VERY LONG HOWEVER. THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FEATURES MUCH OF THE SAME...MOSTLY VFR CIGS WITH VCSH AND AMDS FOR LOWER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY APPEAR LIKELY. OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SOME FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF SKY COVER BECOMES SCT OR CLR. TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE EAST...BUT OVERALL FCST REMAINS SIMILAR WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. WINDS TUE WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY AT 10 TO 15 KTS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. NO WIND RELATED ISSUES EXPECTED. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH LESS IF ANY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. NO WIND RELATED ISSUES EXPECTED. && .MARINE... SCA FLAGS ARE UP FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DEL BAY. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KTS AS OF MID-AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUE. SEAS ON THE LOWER DEL BAY WERE REPORTED AS 2 TO 4 FT BY THE CM-LEWES FERRY AND MOSTLY 3 TO 4 FT AT THE BUOYS ATTM. SEAS AT THE BUOYS WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO 5 FT SHORTLY AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO TUE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME 5FT SEAS AT THE MOUTH OF THE DEL BAY ALSO...SO WE WILL KEEP THE SCA GOING OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. WEATHER...SHOWERY WITH ISOLATED TSTM. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/SEAS IN ANY TSTM WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK... WHILE WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY TUESDAY EVENING, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS MIGHT LINGER ON THE OCEAN SIDE. THE ADVISORY WAS NOT EXTENDED AT THIS TIME BECAUSE CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH. BUT BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT, WE ARE EXPECTING BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BUILDS INTO AND THEN STARTS SETTLING SOUTH OF OUR CWA. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES IN THIS JUNE TIDE CYCLE ARE OCCURRING THIS EVENING ALONG MOST OF THE ATLC NJ AND DE COASTS. FOR NJ AND DE ATLC COASTS: THIS HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE COMBINED WITH GROWING POSITIVE SURGE DEPARTURES DUE TO A DEVELOPING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EPISODE THIS EVENING ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS. THE 12Z/4 GFS AND NAM VIA ETSS AND DBOFS ARE FORECASTING MDT CF THIS EVENING...THE NAM A BIT LESS EMPHATIC. A LOCALLY DEVELOPED SET OF EQUATIONS BASED ON A HISTORICAL DATABASE IS FORECAST JUST BELOW MODERATE. CONFIDENCE IN A MODERATE EVENT IS RATED AS AVERAGE...DUE TO A LACK OF COMPLETE AGREEMENT IN THE DECISION MAKING TOOLS. ESSENTIALLY I HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE THREATENING GFS BASED TIDAL FORECAST SUPPORTED BY THE 2PM POSITIVE DEPARTURES IN REAL TIME DATA IN OUR LOWER PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON TIDE CYCLE. FORTUNATELY ONSHORE SWELL AND WIND WAVE IS MINIMAL AND SO THE PRIMARY IMPACT THIS EVENING IS THE EXPECTED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF THE TIDAL INUNDATION AFFECTED ROADS...WITH ANY RELATED PROPERTY DAMAGE PROBABLY MINIMAL. TIDAL FLOOD EPISODES SHOULD NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENINGS BUT EXCEEDENCE OF MINOR ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ARE PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY EVENING. PHILADELPHIA: THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER IS CONTINUING TO MODEL A MINOR EVENT WITHIN AN HOUR OF THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THE TIDES MAY RUN A BIT HIGHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM REEDY POINT TO PHILADELPHIA AND NEWBOLD. OUTLOOK... WHILE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ON TUESDAY EVENING, IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL REACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEANSIDE AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AS DBFOS GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE TOO RAMBUNCTIOUS. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES START SLIDING DOWNWARD ON TUESDAY SO BY WEDNESDAY WITH A LIGHTER FLOW, ALL AREAS MAY BE FREE OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. ON CHESAPEAKE BAY, WE ARE TAKING A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH AS CBFOS GUIDANCE IS ALREADY TOO HOT. WE SUPPOSE IF WE ARE WRONG, MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS MIGHT BE REACHED WITH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ070-071. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012>014-020>027. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ016>019. DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002>004. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR DEZ001. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GIGI |
| #516047 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:00 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 345 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN OCEAN STORM WELL EAST OF CAPE COD WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WED THROUGH FRI...BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE...BUT SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED TO THE END OF THE WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE WILL LIKELY BRING WARMER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... IT HAS BEEN A RAW DAY FOR EARLY JUNE WITH GUSTY NE WINDS...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. WARM CONVEYOR BELT WITHIN WELL DEFINED TROWAL IS PIVOTING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN NUMEROUS BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE OCEAN STORM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT SO EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS BUT DECREASING OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING TO THE S BY THIS EVENING SO WHILE IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE COAST...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN DIMINISHING. WINDS HAVE REMAINED WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY. SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING DURING TONIGHT/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE OCEAN STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WHILE THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE VICINITY OF NOVA SCOTIA. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS WEAK IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW. TIMING THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BE DIFFICULT SO WE WILL HAVE CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUE SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT BUT A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...LASTING INTO TUE NIGHT. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY TUE...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COOL AS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S...EXCEPT UPPER 50S ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH LESS WIND. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER WED-FRI BUT NOT A WASHOUT * COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK * PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER WEATHER LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK DETAILS... WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH DISTANT OCEAN STORM WILL HAVE LIFTED WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HANG BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR EARLY JUNE...WITH WED BEING THE COOLEST DAY. WHILE A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED...COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME INSTABILITY FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE FOUND INLAND FROM THE COAST WHERE THERE WILL BE A BIT BETTER INSTABILITY AWAY FROM THE MARINE LAYER. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION...BUT THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS. LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH EAST OF OUR REGION. NONETHELESS...EXPECT A NICE WEEKEND WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER WELL INTO THE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS RISING HEIGHT FIELDS SHOULD LIMIT OR PREVENT ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY. MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HEIGHT FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SO THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST IS A POSSIBILITY. KEPT FORECAST DRY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO LOW CIGS...BUT PERIODS OF VFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN CT VALLEY. IFR VSBYS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST UNTIL THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE LIKELY DECREASING A BIT TONIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR DURING TUE...ESPECIALLY CT VALLEY. STRONGEST GUSTS TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE S. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH IMPROVING CIGS DURING TUE. STRONGEST GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF VFR ARE POSSIBLE. IMPROVING TO VFR TUE. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WED THROUGH FRI...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DOMINATE ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SAT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR UNTIL EARLY EVENING THEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND MOVES TO THE S. SEAS MAY PEAK AROUND 15 FT EAST OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING. GALES WILL EXPIRE AT 00Z BUT WILL NEED TO BE CONVERTED TO SCA. EXPECT SCA GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED DIMINISHING WIND TUE AND TUE NIGHT. HAZARDOUS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER OPEN WATERS THROUGH TUE...THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT LATE TUE NIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING MORE SCT TUE AND TUE NIGHT. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY SWELL MAY RESULT IN SCA FOR SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER-WATERS LINGERING INTO WED MORNING. THEREAFTER...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FOR MOST IF NOT THE REST OF THE PERIOD. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... * COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST EXPANDED TO NANTUCKET TONIGHT... NEW 12Z NAM FITS WITH PRIOR GUIDANCE FOR WIND FLOW THRU TONIGHT. CONFIDENT OF WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT AND HAVE CONTINUED WARNING AS WELL AS ADDED NANTUCKET. ONSHORE WIND AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING FOR COAST JUST EAST OF NANTUCKET. WE ADJUSTED SEAS ABOVE GUIDANCE SOME GIVEN OUR EXPERIENCE WITH EFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN NE WIND CASES. THE NE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO EASE A LITTLE IN THE FEW HOURS LEADING TO HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE COD. THE TIMING OF THAT EASING OF THE GRADIENT IS CRITICAL AS TO THE MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING WE WILL SEE. SINCE MODELS TEND TO BE A LITTLE FAST TO EASE OFF THE GRADIENT ON QUASI-STATIONARY COASTAL STORMS...WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT OF THE GRADIENT EASING NORTH OF BOSTON THAN SOUTH OF BOSTON. PRIOR TO ANY EASING OF THE GRADIENT THIS EVENING...WE ARE ANTICIPATING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIRECTLY ONSHORE AT ABOUT A 040 DEGREES DIRECTION. CONSIDERABLE FETCH AND DURATION SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL WAVE GENERATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS CLIMBING ANOTHER COUPLE OF FEET OR SO FROM PRESENT. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER FOR THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE LONGER PERIOD WAVES THAN LAST NIGHT AND THUS HIGHER ENERGY WAVE ACTION. TAKING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER...WE ARE ANTICIPATING COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR IN MAGNITUDE AS LAST NIGHT FOR THE SHORELINE NORTH OF BOSTON...AND PROBABLY SOMEWHAT MORE SIGNIFICANT FOR THE COASTLINE SOUTH OF BOSTON INCLUDING THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. WE ARE PROJECTING A STORM SURGE OF 1.3 TO 1.5 FEET AT THE TIME OF MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE FROM SALISBURY TO BOSTON. FROM BOSTON TO PLYMOUTH...WE ARE THINKING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 FEET. FOR NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORELINES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...WE ARE THINKING CLOSER TO 1.8 FEET AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. WE ARE PROJECTING SEAS OF GENERALLY 12 TO 15 FEET JUST A FEW MILES OFFSHORE OF THE COAST WITH PERIODS GENERALLY 9 TO 12 SECONDS. THE OTHER TIDE ISSUE OF CONSEQUENCE IS BEACH EROSION. GIVEN THE DURATION AND FETCH THAT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS...WE THINK BEACH EROSION WILL QUITE SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY FOR OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WHICH MAY BE MOST EXPOSED TO LARGE AND RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WAVES AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. AT LEAST SOME BEACH EROSION WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL WIND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. WE APPRECIATE ANY REAL TIME OR NEAR REAL TIME FEEDBACK ON TIDE IMPACTS VIA STORM REPORTER...WEB SPOTTER OR OTHER MEANS. TUE NIGHT... MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY AGAIN TUE NIGHT WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. WHILE THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER E WITH TIME...CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THREAT. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020. NH...NONE. RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ002-004>007. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-232-250- 251-254-255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK |
| #516046 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:59 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 340 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST...SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO WITH REGARD TO SHWR OUTLOOK FROM LAST UPDATE FOR TNGT...WITH ISOLD MENTION N AND SCT CNTRL AND DOWNEAST WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE QPF. A WEAK MID LVL S/WV ROTATING E TO W ARND THE N SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CNTRD JUST S OF NOVA SCOTIA VERY LATE TNGT INTO TUE COULD BRING MORE CVRG OF SHWRS SPCLY TUE MORN INTO ERLY AFTN. FOR NOW WITH THIS FEATURE....WE SHOW THE BEST CHC POPS OVR SE PTNS OF THE FA...USING GMOS FOR POPS AND QPF IN A SHWR REGIME WITH WEAK FORCING. SHWRS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH A LITTLE EARLY RELATIVE TO DIURNAL MAX HTG...DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN WHEN THE FA WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING S/WV ALF. OVRNGT TEMPS TNGT AND SPCLY HI TEMPS TUE WILL CONT ON THE COOL SIDE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST KEEPING REGION IN CYCLONIC FLOW INTO THURSDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12...GFS40...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POP GRIDS. FOR WIND WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GMOS DURING DAY AND GMOS AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS INITIALIZED WITH THE GMOS THEN HAVE ADJUSTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HIGHER. FOR QPF HAVE BLENDED THE GFS40...NAM80...SREF AND ECMWF. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEA BOARD MONDAY. HAVE INITIALIZED ALL GRIDS WITH GMOS. WILL ADJUST POP GRIDS PRIMARILY FOR SMOOTHING. HAVE ADJUSTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT END OF PERIOD HIGHER IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: ALL SITES ARE BEGINNING LOW VFR THIS AFTN...EXCEPT KBHB. USING GFS RH AS A BASIS OF CLG HT...WHICH DOES WELL WITH E TO NE LLVL WINDS...CLGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH LOW MVFR LIKELY AT DOWNEAST SITES. TYPICAL OF THIS TM OF YEAR...CLGS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE DURG THE DAY TUE TO LOW VFR MOST SITES BY MID TUE AFTN. SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONT ACROSS ALL MZS MOST OF TNGT. WE HAVE OPTD TO SPLIT OFF INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052 FROM THE SCA AT 08Z WITH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THERE DIMINISHING BLO SCA CRITERIA BY APPROX 4 AM EDT. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND/OR WV HTS AOA 5 FT SHOULD CONT OVR THE OUTER MZS THRU MOST OF THE DAY TUE...WITH THE SCA THERE SLATED TO END AT 22Z. WE USED A BLEND OF NAM12...GFS40 AND GMOS FOR WINDS AND WW3 FOR WV HTS...WITH THE TNGT PD AND TUE MORN PD ACTUALLY 1 TO 2 FT ABV WW3 GUIDANCE OVR THE OUTER WATERS BASED LATEST BUOY OBS WHICH WERE RUNNING SIG ABV WW3...THEN MERGING TOWARD A WW3/SWAN NAM WV GUIDANCE BY TUE EVE. SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 TO INITIALIZE WIND GRIDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THEN TRANSITION TO GMOS GRIDS. WILL REDUCE THE NAM12 WINDS BY 10 PERCENT DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. WAVES WILL USE SWAN NAM OUT TO THURSDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE WNA/4. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ052. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN |
| #516043 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:57 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 326 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN LATE THURSDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EASE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA WITH A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM NEAR KINSTON EAST TO THE DOWNEAST SECTION OF CARTERET COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE BRIEF...BUT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK DOWNPOUR. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS AT OR ABOVE 1 INCH. THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE BELOW ABOUT 600 MB THRU MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE ON THE CLOUDY SIDE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 7 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES DROP OFF AND UPPER HEIGHTS DROP SLIGHTLY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS TO THE MIDDLE 70S OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. GIVEN SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 12 G/KG...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THRU THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 PM MON...BOTH 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND MATCH UP WELL WITH HPC SURFACE FEATURES. DEEP UPPER TROF WILL LINGER ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY RIDGING THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A WEST-EAST STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GULF STATES TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER SO DID NOT MENTION. BY THE END OF THE WEEK A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER RIDGING WILL BRING A WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY WARMING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST THRU THIS EVENING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDS AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT. BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY WITH NAM SHOWING WIDESPREAD LOW IFR CONDITIONS AND GFS GENERALLY SHOWING A MUCH HIGHER VFR CEILING. GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE IN THE TIME SECTIONS BELOW 600 MB...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER GUIDANCE THOUGH NOT QUITE AS LOW. WILL FORECAST A 3000 FOOT BROKEN CEILINGS FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY. LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT/ AS OF 230 PM MON...VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST...BECOMING LIGHT WEST ON FRIDAY...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SATURDAY. ONLY CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/... AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO EASE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SHOULD CROSS THE ENTIRE COASTAL SECTION OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD BECOME NW THEN NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL ON TUESDAY WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET ALTHOUGH SOME 5 FOOTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER TIER OF THE MIDDLE LEGS OF THE COASTAL ZONES. LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT/ AS OF 230 PM MON...12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WERE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND USED A 50/50 BLEND FOR THE WINDS. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS ONLY 5-10 KNOTS AND SEAS 1-2 FEET. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #516041 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:56 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 355 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CENTER OF UPPER CLOSED LOW PULLING OFF THEN NEW ENGLAND COAST ATTM. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN CT AND CENTRAL/EASTERN LONG ISLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A COUPLE ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES SET TO ALSO PIVOT IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...SO KEPT SCT COVERAGE IN FOR THIS EVENING... THEN ONLY ISOLD COVERAGE OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOSS OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE...MOSTLY UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. JUDGING FROM STRENGTH OF UPSTREAM NE FLOW AND WET BULB TEMPS OVER NEW ENGLAND...THIS MAY END UP BEING A BIT TOO COOL. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ISOLD AM SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME SCT TO NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON VIA INCREASED SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM ANOTHER VORT MAX PIVOTING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WHICH SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST S OF NOVA SCOTIA AT THAT TIME. BEST AREAL COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE INLAND...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SPARK A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FROM NYC WEST INTO NE NJ. HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THEN THOSE OF TODAY...65-70. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD SOUTHWARD TUE NIGHT...WHICH ALONG WITH LOSS OD DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BRING AN END TO SHOWERS TUE NIGHT. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TOUGH TO TIME ANY INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE TROUGH. ANY OF THESE FEATURES COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DIURNAL PRECIP EXPECTED THIS TIME FRAME DURING MAX HEATING...INCREASED INSTABILITY. HIGHEST COVERAGE WOULD BE OVER THE INTERIOR DUE TO THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY. RIDGE BUILDS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY THIS TIME FRAME...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN CHECK FOR MAINLY SHOWERS AND NOT MUCH THUNDER. AS FOR TEMPS...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS. HOWEVER...WITH RIDGE BUILDING...AIR MASS WARMS AND WE SHOULD SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED EAST BEGINS TO DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW THROUGH 18Z. NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH VARYING CEILINGS FROM VFR TO AROUND 2500 FT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY OCCUR INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE SOUTH OF THE NYC TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL DRYING LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP CEILINGS VFR. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS INTO THIS EVENING EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH VARYING CEILINGS...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 2 TO 3 KFT. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH VARYING CEILINGS...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 2 TO 3 KFT. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VARYING CEILINGS...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 2 TO 3 KFT. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VARYING CEILINGS...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 2 TO 3 KFT. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VARYING CEILINGS...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 2 TO 3 KFT. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH VARYING CEILINGS...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 2 TO 3 KFT. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY...VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF CEILINGS 2500 FT TO 3000 FT WITH ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...MAINLY IN THE AFT/EARLY EVE HOURS. .SATURDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... NE FLOW IS STRENGTHENING AS EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KT AT COASTAL LAND STATIONS OVER SE CT AND SEAS AT BUOY 44097 SE OF BLOCK ISLAND NOW AT 5 FT...SO SCA FOR MOST OF THE WATERS LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ADDED PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS TO THE ADVY AS WELL DUE TO EXPOSED NE FETCH...BUT REMOVED WRN LI SOUND FROM THE ADVY AS GUSTS THERE SHOULD COME UP SHORT. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE ON TUE...BUT LINGERING OCEAN SEAS OVER 5 FT LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF TUE...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE EVENING OUT EAST. DID NOT YET EXTEND SCA FOR THE ERN WATERS DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. WEAK FLOW AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... SIGNIFICANT AREA QPF OVER 1/2 INCH NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH MAINLY SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY. LOCAL DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT HIGH TIDES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND MODERATE NE FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST. SIMILAR TIDAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT...BEFORE TIDAL LEVELS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ009-010. NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ072-074-075-079>081-178-179. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-073-078-176-177. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ006. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350. && $$ |
| #516042 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:56 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 341 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. SEVERAL TROFS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR TO FILTER SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ALONG CU FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF SEVERAL TROFS PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. GUSTY NW WINDS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CAA WILL LAG A FEW HOURS BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 60S BY LATE EVENING. WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS IN GRIDS THROUGH 00Z. CAN`T EVEN RULE OUT SOME THUNDER AS THIS LINE MOVES FURTHER SOUTH. DATA SUPPORTS KEEPING A LINGERING SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE AREAS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE. OTW...PT CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT NEAR 60 SERN BEACH AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. COMBO OF COLD POOL ALOFT AND ANY HEATING FROM STRONG JUNE SUN SHUD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER JUST ABOUT ANY TIME DURING THE DAY. LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR THUNDER...SO KEPT IT OUT OF GRIDS ATTM. MUCH COOLER WITH H85 TEMPS ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE U60S NEAR THE WATER TO L70S WEST OF CHES BAY. LOWS TUESDAY IN THE 50S. SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE SEEN FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS YET ADDITIONAL TROFS PROGGED TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP CHC FOR MAINLY DIURNAL POPS IN FORECAST EACH DAY. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH PERIOD. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE L-M70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT 55-60. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE M-U70S. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAINLY QUIET WX WITH WARMING TEMPS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. UPR-LVL TROF PRESENT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK FINALLY PULLS OFFSHORE FRI. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE TROF THU NGT...BUT NOTICEABLE LACK IN MOISTURE SHUD KEEP MOST AREAS DRY. HEIGHTS RISE THRU THE DAY FRI AS UPR-LVL RIDGE BLDS OVR THE EASTERN CONUS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER A MSTLY/PRTLY SNY SKY. SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE REGION WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING...HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON SAT AND APPROACHING 90 ON SUN. UPR-LVL RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE FOR ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. EXPECT NW WINDS TO GUST AROUND 20 KT AS A FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY CAUSE A BKN/OVC 2-3K FT STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP OVER THE TAF SITES. IF THE STRATUS DECK DOES FORM...EXPECT IT IMPACT KSBY AROUND 06Z TUE AND SPREAD SOUTHWEST. GUSTY WINDS AND POP UP SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON. A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN US MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE. && .MARINE... WEAK CAA SURGE HAS BEGUN OVR NORTHERN BAY ZONES AS OF 19Z...AND IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTH OVR THE NEXT FEW HRS. HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH INHERITED SCA HAZARDS OVR THE BAY AND RIVERS THRU THIS EVNG...WITH SCA CONTINUING THRU MID MRNG TUE AS A SECONDARY SURGE IS EXPECTED ERLY TUE MRNG FOLLOWING A LULL IN THE WNDS OVRNGT. WATER TEMPS IN THE 70S IN THE BAY AND RIVERS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DECENT MIXING. NW WNDS WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO N THEN NE. NOT EXPECTING WNDS TO REACH SCA THRESHOLDS OVR THE SOUND. OVR COASTAL WATERS...SEAS WILL BLD FROM 3 TO 4 FT THIS EVNG THEN 5-6 FT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TNGT INTO TUE AS NORTHEASTERLY SWELL INCREASES. 5 FT SEAS MAY PERSIST INTO TUE NGT OVR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON EXTENDING HAZARDS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SEAS TUE AFTN. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT AND WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE AREA WED AND THU WILL LEAD TO SUB-SCA CONDS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 TO 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A FULL MOON AND ONSHORE FLOW. THE LATEST EXTRATROPICAL GUIDANCE HAS MINOR THRESHOLDS BEING MET OVER PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST SIDE OF THE LWR EASTERN SHORE...THE VIRGINIA ATLANTIC COAST...CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ALSO...A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. WATER LEVELS DURING TUESDAY EVENINGS HIGH TIDE WILL BE AROUND MINOR STAGE FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS DURING HIGH TIDE BASED ON THE LATEST MDL GUIDANCE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ024-025. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ635>637. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632- 634-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654- 656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR |
| #516040 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:56 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 343 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS...18 UTC surface analysis shows a weak frontal boundary across the south, primarily extending from Central Arkansas westward into southern South Carolina. Vapor imagery and upper air data show a large scale trough across the Eastern U.S. A series of weak impulses were moving within this trough and have been triggering a series thunderstorm clusters along the frontal boundary. One of these remnant MCVs was located across Central Arkansas. It is expected that this feature will play a role in the convective development on Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday Night). Persistent west to northwest flow aloft will prevail across the region into Tuesday. Model guidance handles this overall pattern well, but the models do differ with the details in the convective evolution for Tuesday. The concern all along has been with convective development overnight. As it appears right now, large sweeping outflow from mid morning activity across Central Alabama and drier air just off the surface across our region has acted to stabilize the low level airmass across the Deep South. Further back to the north along the surface boundary, convection has been slow to organize today. As a result, it is doubtful there will be any significant development tonight. Thus, the expectation at this time is for there to be little if any debris cloud cover Tuesday morning across the region. This is in good agreement with the 04/12z NAM which favors less morning and early afternoon cloud cover, which should allow for a sufficient time for the area airmass to destabilize on Tuesday afternoon. Model guidance indicates MLCAPES easily exceeding 2000 J/KG during the afternoon with deep layer shear values in the 30 to 40 kt range. As a result, the severe potential looks pretty good on Tuesday afternoon, initially across the northern portion of the forecast area and then dropping southward throughout the remainder of the area as the convection interacts with the sea breeze. With the boundary predicted to stall across the region Tuesday night, unsettled conditions are expected on Wednesday over the forecast area with pops remaining elevated. However, severe potential seems to be much less as ongoing convection overnight and lingering cloud cover will limit destabilization Wednesday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday). Models seem to have come into somewhat better agreement. The large scale longwave period begins highlighted by a deep neutral trough over western U.S and a positively tilted trough over the eastern U.S. The eastern trough has shown little recent progression due to blocky upper pattern with ridge in Cntrl Conus and in Atlc east of trough. At the surface, a surface wave is riding east located just east of sc/ga coast with stalled frontal boundary wsw across gulf coast/gulf of Mex line to TX and is providing a moist and unstable local airmass. Wednesday night begins with a W-E oriented trough associated with the low that currently resides over the Eastern U.S., which by this time will be located well out into the Atlantic. This trof will keep clouds and rain chances in the forecast, and max temps in the upper 80s to low 90s. Thursday tropical moisture from the Gulf begins to push in and enhance chances of locally heavy rainfall especially in the panhandle and FL big bend. As the trough pushes offshore and into the coastal areas by Friday, drier air will filter in from a ridge diving out of the Ohio River Valley. Since the most recent Euro, which previously left the trof hanging in the region for the weekend, has begun to trend more towards the GFS solution, we have decided to knock down the weekend PoPs a bit. Both the Euro and GFS agree on a cut off low approaching the area from the west at the end of the extended term, so PoPs have been bumped up in the western panhandle and southern Alabama for Monday. With a surface high positioned east of the area, generally clearer skies, and southerly flow, we will begin trending towards warmer temps with highs into the mid 90s and lows near 70. && .AVIATION...Winds will be westerly around 15 kts with higher gusts for the remainder of the day and again on Tuesday. We expect scattered convection to develop later this afternoon and evening which may briefly impact most terminals. We will see an increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. There is also a better chance for fog development overnight with MVFR VSBYS/CIGS. && .MARINE...Moderate southwesterly flow will increase through Tuesday afternoon to cautionary levels at times. As this boundary settles over the marine area by Wednesday, the winds will diminish to typical summer time levels. However, numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over the marine area through at least Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER...After today there will not be any fire weather concerns for at least the remainder of the week as minimum relative humidities are forecast to remain above 35 percent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 72 93 71 87 70 / 10 70 50 60 40 Panama City 77 89 74 87 73 / 10 40 40 60 30 Dothan 73 92 71 91 70 / 30 70 40 50 30 Albany 72 90 71 88 69 / 30 70 50 50 30 Valdosta 72 89 71 86 68 / 20 70 50 60 40 Cross City 73 90 72 87 71 / 10 40 50 60 40 Apalachicola 76 89 75 86 72 / 10 40 40 60 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...None. FL...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for Holmes-Inland Walton-Jackson. GM...None. && $$ |
| #516038 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:56 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 336 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... ONLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN STREAKS OFF THE LARGER ISLANDS OF THE LOWER KEYS THUS FAR TODAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE SERVICE AREA AS THICKER CI IS HANGING BACK OVER THE GULF. WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS ALL ZONES AND AVERAGE BELOW 10 KNOTS AT THE AVAILABLE CMANS...AND BELOW 10 MPH ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. WE MAY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POP ALONG THE CLOUD LINE BEFORE THE HEAT OF THE DAY SUBSIDES. A RELATIVELY DEEP BUT LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND PROFILE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO FORM ALONG VERY SUBTLE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES OVERNIGHT...BUT THUS FAR INTO THE DAY...CUBA AND POINTS SOUTHWESTWARD HAVE HAD LIMITED CONVECTION. THUS...WILL KEEP THE EXPECTED COVERAGE/PROBABILITY AT FEW/SLIGHT CHANCE ON THAT ACCOUNT. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE CURRENTLY ALIGNED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS DURING THAT TIME. IN GENERAL...DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE TAPPED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE FLOW REMAINS DEEP AND OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRIDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE GFS SHOWS A SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER AND DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY PROFILE COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. SINCE THE GFS HAS NOT HAD THE BEST GRIP ON TIMING STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...THIS FORECAST WILL BE CLOSER TO THE GRAPHICAL ECMWF. THAT SAID...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A POCKET OF MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE IS POISED TO LIFT ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. BY THE WEEKEND...A MUCH WEAKENED SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH PUSHES THE HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND WE BEGIN TO SEE A DEEPER FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE PERIODS OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST. && .MARINE... A GENTLE WIND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS THANKS TO A WEAK AXIS OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE ALIGNED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRAITS. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST AS THIS AXIS LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE GFS HAS HINTED AT HIGHER SOUTHERLY WINDS ANYWHERE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY ON PREVIOUS RUNS...AND IS NOW MUCH SOON AND MUCH DEEPER WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. SINCE IT HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT DURING THAT TIME FRAME AND SOME OF ITS SPEEDS SEEM EXAGGERATED...WILL LEAN THIS FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF. THAT SAID...EXPECT BACKING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE MIDDLE TO THE LATE PERIODS OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF WINDS APPROACHING 15 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 10 KNOTS. NO CAUTIONARY HEADLINES FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED IN ANY WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS WEEK. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 6000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. && .CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1966...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS ONLY 81 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR COOLEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JUNE 4TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 46 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KEY WEST 79 88 79 88 / 20 30 30 30 MARATHON 79 90 79 90 / 20 30 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516036 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:44 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 249 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS ENVELOPED SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE THE 90 DEGREE MARK. CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST COASTAL AREAS. ATTM LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW HAS ACTUALLY INCREASED WHICH IS INHIBITING THE FORMATION OF AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS CONTINUES...STORMS MAY NOT DEVELOP BUT WITH A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS OF HEATING REMAINING...A WEAK CONVERGENT ZONE ALONG THE EAST COAST COULD DEVELOP POSSIBLY SPARKING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. IF SO...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR ANY STORM TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNDOWN. BY TUESDAY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES COMBINED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE POTENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT WESTERLY FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE EVEN STRONGER THAN TODAY MEANING A GOOD FORCING MECHANISM FOR STRONG TO SEVERE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE HARD TO COME BY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH DEEP MOISTURE HANGING AROUND FACILITATING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES MAY BE SEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AS A BROAD H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. && .AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH WSW WINDS NEAR 10 KT. HOWEVER, INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND WINDS COULD BECOME SE AT KFLL BY 4 PM. THE SEA BREEZE LIKELY WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE OTHER ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ESP AFTER 4 PM. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS TO AROUND 50 KT AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER, THE LIKELIHOOD OF A STORM IMPACTING A TERMINAL IS LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE STORMS EXPECTED. ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY 01Z WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER OVERNIGHT. /GREGORIA && .MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SEAS MAINLY 4 FEET OR LESS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. AS THE FRONT SLOWS AND WEAKENS LATE IN THE WEEK, WINDS MAY SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 77 90 76 87 / 20 30 20 30 FORT LAUDERDALE 79 91 77 88 / 20 30 20 30 MIAMI 79 90 77 89 / 20 30 20 30 NAPLES 76 89 75 86 / 10 30 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516037 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:44 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 335 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE IS SLOW TO DEPART. THIS WILL MEAN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS HEAVY AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MIN TEMPS A BLEND OF THE NAM/MET/MAV. WENT WITH LOW LIKELY POPS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND CHANCE OVER THE FAR INTERIOR. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... SAME OLD STORY FOR TUESDAY. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. PLENTY OF CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN MONDAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKING FOR LOWS SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL EDGE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM EASTERN QUEBEC. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE BUT DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO RESULT IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MARGINAL CAPES MAY PRODUCE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL FINALLY BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION. WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC MAY BRING A LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES BUT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS. VARIABLE CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR AN EVENING SHOWER. ELSEWHERE LOOKING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WARMER AIR SHIFTS BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION. WON`T BE A PERFECTLY SUNNY DAY AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF EVENING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH COOL...DAMP FLOW FROM OFF THE OCEAN AND MARITIMES. LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS IT WILL TAKE SEAS QUITE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE. SOME OCNL 25 KNOTTERS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LONG TERM...NO FLAGS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...THE HIGHEST IN A CYCLE OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES /11.9 FEET MLLW AT 1143 PM AT PORTLAND/ WILL OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH ROUGH SURF. AROUND A 1 FT SURGE IS EXPECTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL FLOOD WARNING STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR FORECAST POINTS ALONG THE PRESUMPSCOT, ANDROSCOGGIN, SANDY, AND KENNEBEC RIVERS CONTINUE. FLW FOR WESTBROOK CONTINUES AS WELL. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS NOW OVERWITH...HOWEVER IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR RIVER...CREEKS...AND STREAMS TO RECEDE DUE TO THE RUNOFF. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ023>028. NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ014. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ |
| #516034 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:42 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 324 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN OCEAN STORM WELL EAST OF CAPE COD WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... IT HAS BEEN A RAW DAY FOR EARLY JUNE WITH GUSTY NE WINDS...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. WARM CONVEYOR BELT WITHIN WELL DEFINED TROWAL IS PIVOTING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN NUMEROUS BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE OCEAN STORM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT SO EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS BUT DECREASING OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING TO THE S BY THIS EVENING SO WHILE IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE COAST...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN DIMINISHING. WINDS HAVE REMAINED WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY. SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING DURING TONIGHT/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE OCEAN STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WHILE THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE VICINITY OF NOVA SCOTIA. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS WEAK IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW. TIMING THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BE DIFFICULT SO WE WILL HAVE CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUE SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT BUT A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...LASTING INTO TUE NIGHT. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY TUE...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COOL AS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S...EXCEPT UPPER 50S ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH LESS WIND. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THU * COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING LATE WEEK * PATTERN CHANGE POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK MODEL PREFERENCES... 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS NA THIS PERIOD...WHICH FEATURES A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED OCEAN CYCLONE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AT 00Z WED...THEN SLOWLY DRIFTING SEAWARD TO NEWFOUNDLAND BY FRI. BY LATE FRI INTO SAT MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER THE 12Z ECENS AND THE 00Z UKMET LEND SOME SUPPORT TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI INTO SAT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS CHANCE POPS SO WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. CPC ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CURRENT HIGHLY ANOMALOUS NEGATIVE NAO /INDEX -2/ BEGINS TO TREND TOWARD ZERO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUGGEST A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REDEVELOPING FROM THE MID ATLC INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD FAVOR A TREND TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER INTO NEW ENGLAND. STAY TUNED! SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS... TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCEAN STORM SLOWLY DRIFT INTO ATLC CANADA. THUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT/COMMA HEAD RAINS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. THEREFORE NOT AS WET OR COOL AS MON AND TUE. HOWEVER GIVEN CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD POOL ALOFT SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE. SO BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT. THURSDAY... ALL MODEL GUID SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN...PROMOTING BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. BUT CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ALONG WITH COLD POOL ALOFT. SO MORE OF THE SAME...SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS. MARITIME AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO MODIFY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFT TO THE SSW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPS GIVEN STRONG JUNE SUN. THIS SOLAR HEATING WILL ALSO RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND -18C TO -20C! THUS LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WITH A LOW PROB OF SMALL HAIL. FRIDAY/SAT... AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOME TIMING AND MAGNITUDE DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND PRESERVE CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONCE AGAIN NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT. SUNDAY... ABOVE AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT ON MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND BEING REPLACED BY HEIGHT RISES AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REDEVELOPS FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER. GIVEN THE WARMING TEMPS ALOFT FELT CONFIDENT TO LEAVE FORECAST DRY. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO LOW CIGS...BUT PERIODS OF VFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN CT VALLEY. IFR VSBYS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST UNTIL THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE LIKELY DECREASING A BIT TONIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR DURING TUE...ESPECIALLY CT VALLEY. STRONGEST GUSTS TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE S. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH IMPROVING CIGS DURING TUE. STRONGEST GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF VFR ARE POSSIBLE. IMPROVING TO VFR TUE. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN. WINDS SLACKEN AND BECOME LGT/VRB. CIGS MAY LIFT TO VFR DURING WED AFTN. THU/FRI...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR VFR. LOW RISK OF AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. && .MARINE... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR UNTIL EARLY EVENING THEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND MOVES TO THE S. SEAS MAY PEAK AROUND 15 FT EAST OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING. GALES WILL EXPIRE AT 00Z BUT WILL NEED TO BE CONVERTED TO SCA. EXPECT SCA GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED DIMINISHING WIND TUE AND TUE NIGHT. HAZARDOUS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER OPEN WATERS THROUGH TUE...THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT LATE TUE NIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING MORE SCT TUE AND TUE NIGHT. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WED... GALE CENTER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SEAWARD AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. WINDS SLACKEN BUT NE SWELLS PERSIST. VSBY MAY BE POOR IN MORNING FOG AND DRIZZLE. THU/FRI... WEAK HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND IMPROVING VSBY. LIGHT WINDS BUT NE SWELLS MAY LINGER. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... * COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AROUND NOON ALONG THE EAST COAST * COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST EXPANDED TO NANTUCKET AROUND NOON... ONLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN SPOTS WAS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDAY TIDE. WE WILL BE EVALUATING ACTUAL REPORTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TONIGHT... NEW 12Z NAM FITS WITH PRIOR GUIDANCE FOR WIND FLOW THRU TONIGHT. CONFIDENT OF WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT AND HAVE CONTINUED WARNING AS WELL AS ADDED NANTUCKET. ONSHORE WIND AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING FOR COAST JUST EAST OF NANTUCKET. WE ADJUSTED SEAS ABOVE GUIDANCE SOME GIVEN OUR EXPERIENCE WITH EFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN NE WIND CASES. THE NE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO EASE A LITTLE IN THE FEW HOURS LEADING TO HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE COD. THE TIMING OF THAT EASING OF THE GRADIENT IS CRITICAL AS TO THE MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING WE WILL SEE. SINCE MODELS TEND TO BE A LITTLE FAST TO EASE OFF THE GRADIENT ON QUASI-STATIONARY COASTAL STORMS...WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT OF THE GRADIENT EASING NORTH OF BOSTON THAN SOUTH OF BOSTON. PRIOR TO ANY EASING OF THE GRADIENT THIS EVENING...WE ARE ANTICIPATING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIRECTLY ONSHORE AT ABOUT A 040 DEGREES DIRECTION. CONSIDERABLE FETCH AND DURATION SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL WAVE GENERATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS CLIMBING ANOTHER COUPLE OF FEET OR SO FROM PRESENT. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER FOR THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE LONGER PERIOD WAVES THAN LAST NIGHT AND THUS HIGHER ENERGY WAVE ACTION. TAKING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER...WE ARE ANTICIPATING COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR IN MAGNITUDE AS LAST NIGHT FOR THE SHORELINE NORTH OF BOSTON...AND PROBABLY SOMEWHAT MORE SIGNIFICANT FOR THE COASTLINE SOUTH OF BOSTON INCLUDING THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. WE ARE PROJECTING A STORM SURGE OF 1.3 TO 1.5 FEET AT THE TIME OF MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE FROM SALISBURY TO BOSTON. FROM BOSTON TO PLYMOUTH...WE ARE THINKING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 FEET. FOR NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORELINES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...WE ARE THINKING CLOSER TO 1.8 FEET AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. WE ARE PROJECTING SEAS OF GENERALLY 12 TO 15 FEET JUST A FEW MILES OFFSHORE OF THE COAST WITH PERIODS GENERALLY 9 TO 12 SECONDS. THE OTHER TIDE ISSUE OF CONSEQUENCE IS BEACH EROSION. GIVEN THE DURATION AND FETCH THAT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS...WE THINK BEACH EROSION WILL QUITE SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY FOR OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WHICH MAY BE MOST EXPOSED TO LARGE AND RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WAVES AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. AT LEAST SOME BEACH EROSION WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL WIND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. WE APPRECIATE ANY REAL TIME OR NEAR REAL TIME FEEDBACK ON TIDE IMPACTS VIA STORM REPORTER...WEB SPOTTER OR OTHER MEANS. TUE NIGHT... MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY AGAIN TUE NIGHT WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. WHILE THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER E WITH TIME...CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THREAT. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020. NH...NONE. RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ002-004>007. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-232-250- 251-254-255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC |
| #516035 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:42 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 323 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN OCEAN STORM WELL EAST OF CAPE COD WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... IT HAS BEEN A RAW DAY FOR EARLY JUNE WITH GUSTY NE WINDS...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. WARM CONVEYOR BELT WITHIN WELL DEFINED TROWAL IS PIVOTING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN NUMEROUS BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE OCEAN STORM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT SO EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS BUT DECREASING OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING TO THE S BY THIS EVENING SO WHILE IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE COAST...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN DIMINISHING. WINDS HAVE REMAINED WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY. SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING DURING TONIGHT/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE OCEAN STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WHILE THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE VICINITY OF NOVA SCOTIA. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS WEAK IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW. TIMING THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BE DIFFICULT SO WE WILL HAVE CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUE SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT BUT A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...LASTING INTO TUE NIGHT. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY TUE...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COOL AS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S...EXCEPT UPPER 50S ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH LESS WIND. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THU * COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING LATE WEEK * PATTERN CHANGE POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK MODEL PREFERENCES... 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS NA THIS PERIOD...WHICH FEATURES A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED OCEAN CYCLONE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AT 00Z WED...THEN SLOWLY DRIFTING SEAWARD TO NEWFOUNDLAND BY FRI. BY LATE FRI INTO SAT MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER THE 12Z ECENS AND THE 00Z UKMET LEND SOME SUPPORT TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI INTO SAT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS CHANCE POPS SO WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. CPC ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CURRENT HIGHLY ANOMALOUS NEGATIVE NAO /INDEX -2/ BEGINS TO TREND TOWARD ZERO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUGGEST A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REDEVELOPING FROM THE MID ATLC INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD FAVOR A TREND TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER INTO NEW ENGLAND. STAY TUNED! SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS... TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCEAN STORM SLOWLY DRIFT INTO ATLC CANADA. THUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT/COMMA HEAD RAINS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. THEREFORE NOT AS WET OR COOL AS MON AND TUE. HOWEVER GIVEN CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD POOL ALOFT SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE. SO BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT. THURSDAY... ALL MODEL GUID SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN...PROMOTING BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. BUT CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ALONG WITH COLD POOL ALOFT. SO MORE OF THE SAME...SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS. MARITIME AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO MODIFY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFT TO THE SSW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPS GIVEN STRONG JUNE SUN. THIS SOLAR HEATING WILL ALSO RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND -18C TO -20C! THUS LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WITH A LOW PROB OF SMALL HAIL. FRIDAY/SAT... AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOME TIMING AND MAGNITUDE DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND PRESERVE CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONCE AGAIN NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT. SUNDAY... ABOVE AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT ON MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND BEING REPLACED BY HEIGHT RISES AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REDEVELOPS FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER. GIVEN THE WARMING TEMPS ALOFT FELT CONFIDENT TO LEAVE FORECAST DRY. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO LOW CIGS...BUT PERIODS OF VFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN CT VALLEY. IFR VSBYS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST UNTIL THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE LIKELY DECREASING A BIT TONIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR DURING TUE...ESPECIALLY CT VALLEY. STRONGEST GUSTS TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE S. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH IMPROVING CIGS DURING TUE. STRONGEST GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF VFR ARE POSSIBLE. IMPROVING TO VFR TUE. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN. WINDS SLACKEN AND BECOME LGT/VRB. CIGS MAY LIFT TO VFR DURING WED AFTN. THU/FRI...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR VFR. LOW RISK OF AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. && .MARINE... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR UNTIL EARLY EVENING THEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND MOVES TO THE S. SEAS MAY PEAK AROUND 15 FT EAST OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING. GALES WILL EXPIRE AT 00Z BUT WILL NEED TO BE CONVERTED TO SCA. EXPECT SCA GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED DIMINISHING WIND TUE AND TUE NIGHT. HAZARDOUS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER OPEN WATERS THROUGH TUE...THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT LATE TUE NIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING MORE SCT TUE AND TUE NIGHT. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WED... GALE CENTER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SEAWARD AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. WINDS SLACKEN BUT NE SWELLS PERSIST. VSBY MAY BE POOR IN MORNING FOG AND DRIZZLE. THU/FRI... WEAK HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND IMPROVING VSBY. LIGHT WINDS BUT NE SWELLS MAY LINGER. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... * COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AROUND NOON ALONG THE EAST COAST * COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST EXPANDED TO NANTUCKET AROUND NOON... ONLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN SPOTS WAS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDAY TIDE. WE WILL BE EVALUATING ACTUAL REPORTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TONIGHT... NEW 12Z NAM FITS WITH PRIOR GUIDANCE FOR WIND FLOW THRU TONIGHT. CONFIDENT OF WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT AND HAVE CONTINUED WARNING AS WELL AS ADDED NANTUCKET. ONSHORE WIND AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING FOR COAST JUST EAST OF NANTUCKET. WE ADJUSTED SEAS ABOVE GUIDANCE SOME GIVEN OUR EXPERIENCE WITH EFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN NE WIND CASES. THE NE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO EASE A LITTLE IN THE FEW HOURS LEADING TO HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE COD. THE TIMING OF THAT EASING OF THE GRADIENT IS CRITICAL AS TO THE MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING WE WILL SEE. SINCE MODELS TEND TO BE A LITTLE FAST TO EASE OFF THE GRADIENT ON QUASI-STATIONARY COASTAL STORMS...WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT OF THE GRADIENT EASING NORTH OF BOSTON THAN SOUTH OF BOSTON. PRIOR TO ANY EASING OF THE GRADIENT THIS EVENING...WE ARE ANTICIPATING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIRECTLY ONSHORE AT ABOUT A 040 DEGREES DIRECTION. CONSIDERABLE FETCH AND DURATION SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL WAVE GENERATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS CLIMBING ANOTHER COUPLE OF FEET OR SO FROM PRESENT. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER FOR THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE LONGER PERIOD WAVES THAN LAST NIGHT AND THUS HIGHER ENERGY WAVE ACTION. TAKING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER...WE ARE ANTICIPATING COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR IN MAGNITUDE AS LAST NIGHT FOR THE SHORELINE NORTH OF BOSTON...AND PROBABLY SOMEWHAT MORE SIGNIFICANT FOR THE COASTLINE SOUTH OF BOSTON INCLUDING THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. WE ARE PROJECTING A STORM SURGE OF 1.3 TO 1.5 FEET AT THE TIME OF MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE FROM SALISBURY TO BOSTON. FROM BOSTON TO PLYMOUTH...WE ARE THINKING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 FEET. FOR NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORELINES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...WE ARE THINKING CLOSER TO 1.8 FEET AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. WE ARE PROJECTING SEAS OF GENERALLY 12 TO 15 FEET JUST A FEW MILES OFFSHORE OF THE COAST WITH PERIODS GENERALLY 9 TO 12 SECONDS. THE OTHER TIDE ISSUE OF CONSEQUENCE IS BEACH EROSION. GIVEN THE DURATION AND FETCH THAT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS...WE THINK BEACH EROSION WILL QUITE SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY FOR OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WHICH MAY BE MOST EXPOSED TO LARGE AND RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WAVES AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. AT LEAST SOME BEACH EROSION WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL WIND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. WE APPRECIATE ANY REAL TIME OR NEAR REAL TIME FEEDBACK ON TIDE IMPACTS VIA STORM REPORTER...WEB SPOTTER OR OTHER MEANS. TUE NIGHT... MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY AGAIN TUE NIGHT WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. WHILE THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER E WITH TIME...CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THREAT. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ019. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ022-024. NH...NONE. RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ002-004>007. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-233>235- 237-256. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ236. GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254-255. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC |
| #516032 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:35 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 254 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT/TUE...AFTER A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...FURTHER EMERGENCE OF MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD WILL ACT TO INCREASE WLY GRADIENT WINDS INTO EARLY TUE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT WILL SAG SWD TOWARD THE STATE...HOWEVER THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUE. GULF SOURCE MOISTURE WL STEADILY INCREASE OVER CENTRAL FL TUE AROUND PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE STATE. PRECIP CHCS WL INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY TUE AFTN WITH PWAT NEARING 1.5" AND THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHCS FOR RAIN WILL BE MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-4 AND OVER THE SOUTH WHERE A HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS WILL EXIST. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS UNIFORMLY ABOVE 90 DUE TO LACK OF A "COOLING" EAST COAST BREEZE ONCE AGAIN. WED-THU...A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE FL-GA STATE LINE WED AND INTO N FL ON THU. INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SHOWER/TSTM CHCS INTO THE SCATTERED RANGE WED WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND PREFRONTAL FORCING. ON THURSDAY...WILL INCREASE NRN HALF POPS TO LIKELY RANGE AS DEEP MOISTURE AND THE APPROACHING FRONT WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR NRN SECTIONS. NAM DOES NOT SHOW QUITE AS MUCH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS SRN AREAS BUT THIS MAY CHANGE WITH LATER FORECASTS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED AS 12Z GFS STILL SHOWS DRYING FOR CENTRAL/NRN SECTIONS FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRI...THE GFS INDICATES SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH BROAD TROUGH AND KICKING AXIS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WOULD SHOVE FRONT SOUTHWARD...BUT THE TIMING IS SKETCHY SO WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS SIMILAR TO MOS...30 PERCENT NORTH AND 40 PERCENT SOUTH. SAT-MON...THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS HAS SHOWN DRYING THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS WHILE THE ECMWF WAS MUCH WETTER. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER THOUGH...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS MOS WHICH HAS BARELY MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE ATLANTIC BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WOULD BRING AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME...SO HAVE CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS TO THE INTERIOR ZONES. && .AVIATION... VFR WITH NO CLOUD BASES EXPECTED BLO 12K FT THROUGH 13Z TUE. && .MARINE... INCREASING WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL WL CONTINUE NEED FOR ADVISORY TONIGHT OVER THE OUTER WATERS WITH A CAUTION OVER THE SOUTHERN OFFSHORE LEG. MORE BREEZY WINDS FOR TUE WITH SLOWLY APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FETCH LIMITED CONDITIONS WILL KEEP NEARSHORE WATERS FAVORABLE FOR BOATING HOWEVER. WSW/SW WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE INTO MID WEEK WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED OFFSHORE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS INTO THU AND STILL FOR THE SRN WATERS FRIDAY BEFORE DEEPER LAYER DRYING MOVES IN FROM THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NE THEN EAST OVER THE WEEKEND INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS MAY REACH 4-5 FT OFFSHORE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. && .FIRE WEATHER... BRISK WIND AND LOWER RH CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON CREATING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. FUEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE THE NEED FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE. TUE CONDITIONS SHOW GENERALLY HIGHER RH...HOWEVER GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 92 74 91 / 10 30 30 40 MCO 73 93 73 92 / 0 20 20 30 MLB 75 91 76 89 / 10 20 20 30 VRB 75 91 75 89 / 10 20 20 30 LEE 75 93 74 91 / 0 30 30 40 SFB 74 94 74 93 / 10 30 20 40 ORL 75 92 75 91 / 0 30 20 30 FPR 76 92 73 89 / 10 20 20 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ |
| #516031 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:33 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 251 PM AST MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS...SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. RIDGE PATTERN WILL STRENGTHEN MID WEEK AND REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...PRODUCING HAZY SKIES...AND HOT CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SURPRISINGLY...SOME SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...MAINLY OVER THE MUNICIPALITIES OF OROCOVIS...JAYUYA...AND UTUADO. OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. FOR TOMORROW...A LINE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY...INCREASING SOMEWHAT THE MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS PUERTO RICO. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS FEATURE... ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY DRIER AIR...IS EXPECTED. && .AVIATION...NO WX EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 77 87 78 89 / 0 0 20 10 STT 77 88 80 90 / 0 10 30 10 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #516030 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:29 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 310 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED DAILY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION UNDER AND UPPER LOW THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOPRES OFF THE NJ SHORE TAFTN. SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA INVOF PHI...ASSOCD W/ A VORT MAX. ADDTL SHRA DVLPG ACRS PA TO THE NW TAFTN...WHICH WUD BE ALIGNED W/ A S/WV AXIS. THERES ALSO ACTIVITY S OF CWFA...FM E OF RIC ACRS TO VCNTY CRW...WHICH WUD ALSO BE INDUCED BY A PVA/INSOLATION COMBO. A SPOKE OF PVA WL BE CROSSING CWFA LT TAFTN-ELY EVNG. NE MD BEST SITUATED TO BE CLIPPED BY THIS AREA. HWVR...BOTH NAM/GFS SUGGEST A 2ND SPOKE OF VORTICITY ARND H5 LOW...WHICH WUD BE OFF LONG ISLAND BY TMRW MRNG. AS LONG AS UPR LOW NEARBY...WUD XPCT POP-UP SHRA/TSRA TO CONT IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING...AND ANY ACTIVITY WUD BE ENHANCED BY PVA. A FEW OF THE STRONGER SHRA MAY CONT PAST SUNSET IF SUFFICIENTLY SUPPORTED BY PVA. THEREFORE...POPS WONT BE ENTIRELY DIURNAL IN NATURE TMRW...SKEWED A LTL ERLR DUE TO THE S/WV. POPS TNGT-TMRW MOSTLY IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE. WL EMPHASIZE AREA OF GREATEST RISK TNGT...BUT WONT ATTEMPT THAT FOR TMRW-- PCPN CUD BE JUST ABT ANYWHERE. TMRW WL BE THE COOLEST DAY AND HV ABT THE LOWEST CAPES OF THE WEEK...SO WL GO W/O THUNDER MENTIONED IN THE GRIDS. GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL STILL PSBL IN THE TALLER STORMS. MOS TEMPS W/IN REASON AND A BLEND ACCEPTED. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A DIURNAL TREND IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS /OCCURRING FROM MIDDAY TO THE EARLY EVENING...CLEARING DURING THE NIGHT/ THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS COOLER AIR INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. GENERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS OF NOW...IF ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER/SEVERE POTENTIAL IS ANTICIPATED THAT DETAIL WILL BE PROVIDED BY LATER FORECASTS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DRIFT EAST...DISPLACING THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD IN THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. FLOW WILL SHIFT WLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE...BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UNSETTLED PTTN THRU VALID TAF PD...BUT AREAL CVRG OF ANY POTL PCPN LMTD. THUS...WL NOT HV ANY PCPN RELATED RESTRICTIONS FCST. CIGS MAY DROP BHD S/WV OVNGT...BUT NO LOWER THAN MVFR. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /AND SHORT-LIVED LIMITED FLIGHT CONDITIONS/ CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. NOCTURNAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP KEEP FOG FROM FORMING...THOUGH FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH EXPECTED CLEAR NIGHTS. && .MARINE... WNDS REACHING SCA CALIBER ON THE WATERS. MAY HV A CPL LULLS...FLLWD BY AN INCREASE BHD A PAIR OF S/WVS. THEREFORE...WL KEEP THE SAME ADVY LINE-UP GOING...AREAWIDE THRU SUNSET...AND THEN MAIN CHANNEL BAY/MOUTH OF THE PTMC THRU MIDDAY TMRW. AFTER THAT WNDS SHUD SUBSIDE AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD. MAY ALSO HV BRIEF GUSTS AOA 30 KT INVOF SCT SHRA THIS EVNG. LIGHT SLY/SWLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE WIND SHIFTS WESTERLY. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY THE WEEKEND. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... DEPARTURES ONLY ARND 1/3 FT ON UPPER WATERS DUE TO BLOW-OUT EFFECT OF NNWLY WNDS. HWVR...DEPARTURES CLSR TO 3/4 FT IN MID BAY/LWR PTMC. THE PM TIDE WL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...AND THUS NO PROBS ANTICIPATED. HWVR...THE AM CYCLE TMRW MAY BE PROBLEMATIC...BASED ON WHAT DEPARTURES ULTIMATELY WL BE. ET SURGE AND CBOFS BOTH SUGGEST INCREASING ANOMOLIES OVER NEXT CPL DAYS. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537- 539>541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530- 535-536-538-542. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ |
| #516029 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:27 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 151 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT AND A LOW CHANCE OF SOME SEA BREEZE SHOWERS TUESDAY. CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE OVER THE SIERRA MADRE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HEATING THE SURFACE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW NIGHTS A FEW OF THESE COULD DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE RIVER LATE TONIGHT AFFECTING MAINLY STARR AND ZAPATA. THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MAY STILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE VALLEY/S WEATHER TUESDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A WEAK SEA BREEZE. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THE AMOUNT AND DEPTH OF MOISTURE. MODEST PWAT VALUES OF 1.6 INCHES AND A SHRINKING DRY MID LAYER MAY BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE 20 PERCENT THAT IS ALL READY MENTIONED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT WITH VERIFICATION VALUES SHOWING OBSERVED CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN WARMER WILL TREND JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY HIGHS. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SLIGHT LOWERING OF OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO LIGHTER SOUTHEAST WINDS SO WILL TREND IN THIS DIRECTION. .LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A LEFT OVER PIECE OF ENERGY DEVELOPS A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS WEDNESDAY. 12Z NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDING SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PWATS VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS MOISTURE OVER THE GULF WILL GRADUALLY SURGE INTO THE CWA AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES BRINGING A BREAK TO THIS DRY WEATHER. THIS LOW WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE VALLEY. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH 12Z NAM BEING THE WEAKEST. DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW WHICH IS BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST AND EAST OF THE CONUS AND UNDER A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL EXPECT THIS LOW TO SLOWLY IMPACT THE CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE VALLEY WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 90S. INHERITED TEMPERATURES WERE LEFT THE SAME. INTO THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SIERRA MADRE OVER MEXICO AND WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY INCREASING BETWEEN 25 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH. MOISTURE PLUME MIGRATES NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TO MAINTAIN A STEADY STATE WIND AND SEA REGIME THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LIGHT TO MODERATE ON SHORE WINDS AND A SLIGHT SEA CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... GIVEN THE PROLONGED OFFSHORE FETCH SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 4 FEET WEDNESDAY FROM THE EAST. SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS AS THE APPROACH OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY SHIFTING BACK EASTERLY DURING THE DAY WITH THE SLOWLY PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE VALLEY. A STRONG MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE GULF WILL INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS ALMOST STATIONARY DURING THE WEEKEND KEEPING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA FINALLY EXITING MONDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 92 77 93 / 10 20 10 20 BROWNSVILLE 77 96 77 95 / 10 20 10 20 HARLINGEN 75 97 75 96 / 10 20 10 20 MCALLEN 77 97 76 99 / 10 20 10 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 99 76 99 / 20 10 20 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 89 79 90 / 10 20 10 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516028 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:26 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 312 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SHORT TERM... EARLIER MCS WEAKENED AS IT TRACKED SEWD AND THEN STORMS FIRED ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS THE BOUNDARIES MOVED INTO THE WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIR OVER SE GA WHERE LAPS SHOWS MU CAPES AROUND 4000 J/KG. SE GA IS NOW UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE MIXING DRY AIR DOWN OVER NE FL AND DEWPOINTS NEAR THE BEACHES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 50S. THINK THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRACK MORE TO THE EAST SLIDING OFF THE COAST THIS AFTN AND NOT REACHING THE STATE LINE. ATMOSPHERE IS TOO STABLE OVER NE FL AND ONLY HAVE 20-30% POPS FOR THE EVENING NORTH OF I-10 ACROSS THE FL/GA BORDER. AS THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND MOISTENING UP ATMOSPHERE...ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER MARION COUNTY IS POSSIBLE. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MCS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL TRACK SEWD AND ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY PROVIDING THE CATALYST FOR SCTD TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES INTO UPR 80S AND LOW 90S. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR A CONTINUATION OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUT A LID ON MAX TEMPS ONCE AGAIN. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY CONTINUING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN PORTION WHERE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME A LEGITIMATE CONCERN AS RAINFALL TOTALS CONTINUE TO ADD UP WITH A FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR TRAINING CELLS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY DRAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH FRI/SAT AND SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC EAST OF GA/SC SUN/MON. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE WEEKEND THEN A RETURN OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. && .AVIATION... QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR HAS MIXED TO THE SURFACE AT THE FLORIDA TERMINALS AND THIS SHOULD MOSTLY INHIBIT THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUS HAVE REMOVED TS FROM THE FLORIDA TAFS. HAVE MAINTAINED TS WORDING AT VQQ AND HAVE ALSO ADDED ENHANCED WORDING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD (18Z). && .MARINE... WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT BUT LATEST DATA SUGGESTS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WILL SCALE BACK ON THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND JUST KEEP IT IN PLACE ONLY FOR THE SOUTHERN-MOST OFFSHORE ZONE. WILL GO WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE FLORIDA NEARSHORE WATERS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL OCCUR TUESDAY EVENING BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET AWAY WITH JUST A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEEKS END. RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 70 90 69 88 / 40 80 70 50 SSI 74 89 73 85 / 50 80 80 70 JAX 71 92 71 88 / 40 70 70 70 SGJ 74 90 74 88 / 20 50 50 70 GNV 72 91 72 90 / 10 40 40 60 OCF 73 92 73 91 / 10 30 30 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ |
| #516025 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 158 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND BRING MORE SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NEW YORK FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS NEW YORK AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND, A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND SPARK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVE ROTATES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AND THEN CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AROUND AND COOLER AIR BEING DRAWN DOWN WITH THE LOW, WE SHOULD SEE A WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 60S ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION, WITH SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA /MAINLY LOWER 70S/. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME GUSTS UP AROUND 20 MPH OR SO. SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN A FEW SPOTS. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED IN A FEW AREAS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. NOWCASTS HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED...AND A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS ALSO BEEN POSTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... AS THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT, A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SECOND WAVE IS CERTAINLY NOT AS ROBUST AND WILL ONLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO AREA. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE CHILLIER SIDE AS WE DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REMAINING 2/3RDS OF OUR AREA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FCST PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED OVERALL BY A GRADUAL SHIFT FROM AN UPPER LOW DOMINATING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND. THE SFC PATN IS RATHER NON-DESCRIPT WITH GENLY WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA DURG THE WEEK BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OFF- SHORE ON THE WEEKEND. THUS THE WEATHER WILL TEND TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH SCT SHOWERS LIKELY DEVLOPING EACH DAY TUE- THU DURG THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVE. INSTBY LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL BUT AN ISOLD T-STORM SHOULD NOT BE RULED OUT ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE SMWHAT BELOW NORMAL BUT WITH A MODERATING TREND BACK TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES NOW SEEM A BIT LESS FOR FRIDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC. THIS IS INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE WARMING TREND SHOULD CONT INTO THE WEEKEND AS WARMER 850MB TEMPS ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA TODAY. WE HAVE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE TAFS BUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION, WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION THUNDER THIS FAR OUT. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR, THEY MAY DETERIORATE TO MVFR, AND POSSIBLY IFR, IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY EARLY THIS MORNING, BECOMING NORTHEAST AND GUSTY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. SOME ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TAFS AT PHL, PNE, TTN AND ILG TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH, AND THE RESULTANT LOWER CEILING HEIGHTS. THESE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE IN THE TEMPO GROUP OF THE TAFS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A T-STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR CONDS WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A T-STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR CONDS WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. && .MARINE... WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL/SFC LOWS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARDS. THE SCA FLAG FOR THE OCEAN WAS ISSUED NOW AND IN ADDITION A SCA FLAG FOR THE LOWER BAY WAS ISSUED WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KTS. SEAS ONTHE OCEAN WILL BE AROUND 5 FT BY EARLY EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 FT INTO TUESDAY...WINDS GUSTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 25 KTS ALSO...EVEN ACROSS LOWERE DEL BAY. OUTLOOK... A SURGE OF NELY WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS THAT WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FCST TO DIMINISH BY TUESDAY EVENING BUT THE SEAS WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TODAY AND THEN TURN MORE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FULL MOON AND ALREADY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING IN THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE MONDAY EVENING. ET-SURGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT TIDAL FLOODING COULD BRIEFLY REACH MODERATE LEVELS WHEREAS LOCALLY DEVELOPED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LEVELS SOMEWHAT BELOW MODERATE. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY RATHER THAN A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH OR WARNING FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER THIS SITUATION SHOULD BE MONITORED CAREFULLY FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADES. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ070-071. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012>014-020>027. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ016>019. DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002>004. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR DEZ001. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMC |
| #516024 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:05 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 157 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...LIKELY LINGERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA...FAR SOUTHERN SC...AND PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 7 PM. EXCELLENT SURFACE HEATING HAS TAKEN PLACE IN THE AREAS THAT REMAINED CLOUD FREE THIS MORNING AND CAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG. THIS DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH DEEP WESTERLY SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 45-50 KTS HAS ALLOWED A NUMBER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE...THE FAVORED MODE OF CONVECTION IS DISCRETE CELLS WITH SOME SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO FAR THE STORMS THAT ARE ONGOING HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...AND SOME ROTATION. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH AND EASTWARD WITH TIME AND THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MID AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... ALL FORECAST PARAMETERS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TONIGHT AND WILL DEPEND GREATLY THE IMPACT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE CERTAINLY IN ORDER AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHEST POPS JUSTIFIED ACROSS THE SOUTH. HOWEVER... PRECIPITATION COVERAGE COULD REMAIN SPARSE IN THE WAKE OF ORGANIZED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...OR ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD AS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT LIES OVER/NEAR THE AREA AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE AREA. GENERALLY HAVE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 WHERE THE GREATEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN LIKELY COOLING OFF SLIGHTLY WED/THU. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LIKELY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY...PUSHING THE SURFACE FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT/SUN. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE BIGGEST NEAR TERM CONCERN FOR THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD IS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KSAV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS ONE STORM THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AIR FIELD SHORTLY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES...BUT PROLONGED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH JUST SHOWERS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. AT KCHS...JUST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING WORKED THE AREA OVER. AFTER THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT RESTRICTED CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL A BIT MIXED ON THE LIKELIHOOD...SO THE TAFS REMAIN VFR WITH THIS PACKAGE. AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ITS EXACTLY LOCATION AND TIMING IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SMALL CHANCE OF PERIODIC SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THU AS THE FRONT LINGERS OVER/NEAR THE AREA. && .MARINE... OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS...W/SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE UP TO 20 KT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...THEN WILL VEER TOWARD THE NW AND WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM...BUT LOW PROBABILITY PRECLUDES AN SCA. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FT...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FURTHER...THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER LOCAL WINDS AT ANY TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME WIND/WAVE SURGES DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THROUGH MID WEEK...PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES COULD PRODUCE MINOR SALT WATER FLOODING DURING EACH EVENING HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 730 PM AND 930 PM ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #516023 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:02 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 159 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SHORT TERM... CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE CAROLINAS WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS DRIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THE RULE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW RETURNS WELL OFFSHORE...WITH NO RAINFALL OVER LAND AREAS. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL REVOLVE AROUND RAINFALL CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED SOUTH OF THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER BY TUESDAY EVENING...THEN REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT IN PARTICULARLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAINFALL PROBABILITIES...BUT ARE SIMILAR IN THE HANDLING OF LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES. CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DRIFTING IN OFF THE WESTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE TAMPA METRO...BUT PROBABILITIES OF MEASUREABLE RAINFALL ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SLOWLY INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE NEED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED EACH DAY THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. .LONG TERM... SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. ALOFT...SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH ENERGY STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION AS A TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TO OVER THE ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOWERING RAIN CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 70-MID 70S THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN LOWER TO THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION... STREAMING UPPER LVL CLOUD DECKS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY PERIODS EXPECTED UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEARING THE 30 KNOTS RANGE AT TIMES. && .MARINE... WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THURSDAY BEFORE A COOL FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW CONTINUES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 89 76 87 / 10 20 20 30 FMY 76 90 74 88 / 10 30 20 30 GIF 74 92 74 89 / 0 20 20 30 SRQ 77 88 75 87 / 10 20 20 30 BKV 72 91 72 89 / 0 20 20 30 SPG 79 87 78 87 / 10 20 20 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-LEVY-PASCO-PINELLAS. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #516022 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1245 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...A SERIES OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ORGANIZED TSRA ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN AL WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE MORE DEFINED ONE LOOKS TO PASS THOUGH THE TERMINALS BY AND AFTER 21Z WITH POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS. SKY AND VSBY OK THRU 05.06Z. MORNING MVFR CIGS BY 05.12Z. WITH A DRIER DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENT OVER THE GULF COAST...TSRA POTENTIAL ALONG THE OUTFLOW...LOOKS MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON. /10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516021 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:59 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1255 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION...A SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT FORECAST IN STORE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY...GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN SITES FROM CRP-ALI-VCT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT LRD LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ONCE AGAIN KICK OFF CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA MADRE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH EXPECTED INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THIS COMBINED WITH AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR LRD BETWEEN 00Z- 06Z...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF VCTS. ELSEWHERE...DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...DID START MVFR CEILINGS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WITH WINDS DECOUPLING...ALSO MENTIONED MVFR VISIBILITIES FOR INLAND AREAS FROM ALI-VCT. STREAMER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS... HOWEVER DUE TO THE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID MORNING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION...MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION SECTION BELOW. AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR VSBYS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. DO EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CIGS/VSBYS RAPIDLY IMPROVE BY 16Z AS CU SCT OUT AND LIFTS TO VFR LEVELS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS AT MOST LOCATIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION NEAR KLRD LATE THIS EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS.WINDS RELAX THIS EVENING AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY 08Z TUESDAY...BRINGING ABOUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CONDITIONS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE VERY NEAR PERSISTENCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT FALL MUCH GIVEN LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD. THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN AGAIN TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUS...WILL GO WITH MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE THIS EVENING. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...YET CONVECTION MAY HOLD TOGETHER A BIT LONGER AND MOVE FURTHER EAST TONIGHT. GIVEN THE FORECAST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVERHEAD...WILL GO WITH STREAMER SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER VERY WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...PERIOD WILL START WITH WEAKNESS IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS PROG A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FIELDS SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH LATEST RUN OF THE GFS APPEARS TO THE BE OUTLIER ON A STRONGER CAP. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MAY MATERIALIZE AS WELL. CHALLENGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DETERMINING WESTWARD EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON PLACEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BELIEVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. STARTED TO TRIM BACK POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR NOW...WITH 20 TO 30S POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT. TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH MID/UPPER 90S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 90 ALONG THE COASTAL BEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 76 91 75 92 74 / 10 20 10 20 20 VICTORIA 74 92 74 93 73 / 10 20 20 20 20 LAREDO 78 101 76 98 78 / 10 10 10 20 20 ALICE 75 96 74 95 73 / 10 20 10 20 20 ROCKPORT 79 88 78 89 75 / 10 20 20 20 20 COTULLA 75 98 74 96 73 / 10 10 10 20 20 KINGSVILLE 76 94 75 94 74 / 10 20 10 20 20 NAVY CORPUS 79 89 77 89 77 / 10 20 20 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516020 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:59 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1254 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION && .AVIATION... LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND SCATTERED OUT AND ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS NOW REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH SOME DECOUPLING OF WINDS AFTER SUNSET. MAIN CONCERN THIS ISSUANCE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS OR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH IFR CIGS FROM IAH NORTHWARD AROUND 12Z. GIVEN THE MODEL PERFORMANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AM HESITANT TO WRITE BKN/OVC CIGS INTO THE FORECAST SO HAVE JUST LOWERED CLOUD HEIGHTS A BIT FOR NOW. THAT SAID...WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISING IF THAT DECK DOES FILL IN AND WE SEE A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING SIMILAR TO TODAY. EXPECTING GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. 38 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS RIDGING INTO SE TX THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WAS HELPING TO PROVIDE A DECENT CAP OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREAS AS SHOWN BY THE LCH 12Z SOUNDING. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN ON THE VISIBLE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AT 15Z WHERE THE STRATO CUMULUS FIELD WAS BEING CLEARED OUT. WITH THE CAP IN PLACE...DO NOT THINK ANY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT WILL PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. 40 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 95 71 93 71 / 10 20 20 40 30 HOUSTON (IAH) 74 94 73 92 73 / 10 20 20 40 30 GALVESTON (GLS) 78 88 79 86 78 / 10 20 30 40 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516019 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 145 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES...AS A DEVELOPING NOR EASTER BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND INTENSIFIES EAST OF CAPE COD. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY MID TO LATE WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1230 PM UPDATE... WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS COMMA HEAD/TROWAL RAINS CONTINUE TO PIVOT SOUTH ACROSS SNE AS WARM CONVEYOR BELT WRAPS AROUND MID LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVSY FOR E COAST MA. WINDS WILL PROBABLY FALL JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA BURT GIVEN ITS JUNE WITH FULL FOLIAGE ON THE TREES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME BRANCHES/LIMBS DOWN. UNSEASONABLY COOL AND RAW DAY WITH MINIMAL TEMP RECOVERY EXPECTED...MORE LIKE APRIL THAN EARLY JUNE. TEMPS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING DURING TONIGHT/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... SYNOPTIC SITUATION... SFC LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK GRADUALLY SLINKING SEWD FURTHER AWAY FROM SHORE...PUSHED MORESO BY HIGH PRES BUILDING S OUT OF CANADA AND ROUNDING THE STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN /NEGATIVE NAO/ ACROSS THE N ATLANTIC. A TROWAL/DEFORMATION AXIS COLLOCATED WITH THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND STRATIFORM RAINS /EASILY DISCERNABLE PRESENTLY IN THE WV IMAGERY/ SWEEPS S ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY... COLLOCATED WITH AN AXIS OF STRONG NELY BOUNDARY LYR FLOW OF 30 TO 35 MPH. WINDS SHOULD RELAX INTO MONDAY NIGHT YET CONTINUALLY DRAW COOLER AIR SWD. THE NEARLY STACKED LOW PRES DOES NOT WOBBLE FAR INTO THE MIDWEEK PD...ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND A CONTINUED COOL MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE RGN LIKELY RESULTING IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN WX FOR TUESDAY. TONIGHT... AS THE SFC LOW PIVOTS SEWD...THE BETTER TROWAL/DEFORMATION AXIS PRESSES OFFSHORE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINS TO DIMINISH. BUT DURING THE INITIAL PD THE STRONGEST OF LOW-LVL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED WITH A NELY 35 KT LLJ /H925/ PERSISTING ACROSS THE ERN SHORES AND THE CAPE AS LATE AS EARLY MORNING HRS. ONCE AGAIN...THE WRF-NMM MDL FCST IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH 40-45 KTS AT H925. WIND ADV WILL CONTINUE INTO 6Z ACCORDINGLY. IN ADDITION...ASTRO TIDES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ONE TO TWO TENTHS HIGHER...AND WITH THE LONG PREVAILING NELY FLOW /THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL CENTER AROUND DUSK WITH H925 FLOW...2-3 KFT AGL...AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH/ SWELL AND HIGH SURF WILL BE BUILT UP ALONG THE ERN SHORES OF MA. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE AS LIKELY A SIMILAR IF NOT GREATER IMPACT ALONG SHORELINE COMMUNITIES WILL BE OBSERVED AS WAS THE CASE SUNDAY NIGHT /SEE LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORT FOR LAST NIGHTS COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS/. TUESDAY... MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL SE OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND STRONGER LOW-LVL FLOW. YET NEVERTHELESS A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL. A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND THE STRONG ANGLE OF THE SUN SHOULD PROMOTE LOW-LVL MIXING AND DIURNAL INVIGORATION OF SCTD SHOWERS AND PSBL THUNDERSTORMS /ALBEIT INSTABILITY IS WEAK/. CHC POPS WARRANTED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THU * COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING LATE WEEK * PATTERN CHANGE POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK MODEL PREFERENCES... 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS NA THIS PERIOD...WHICH FEATURES A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED OCEAN CYCLONE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AT 00Z WED...THEN SLOWLY DRIFTING SEAWARD TO NEWFOUNDLAND BY FRI. BY LATE FRI INTO SAT MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER THE 12Z ECENS AND THE 00Z UKMET LEND SOME SUPPORT TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI INTO SAT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS CHANCE POPS SO WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. CPC ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CURRENT HIGHLY ANOMALOUS NEGATIVE NAO /INDEX -2/ BEGINS TO TREND TOWARD ZERO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUGGEST A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REDEVELOPING FROM THE MID ATLC INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD FAVOR A TREND TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER INTO NEW ENGLAND. STAY TUNED! SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS... TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCEAN STORM SLOWLY DRIFT INTO ATLC CANADA. THUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT/COMMA HEAD RAINS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. THEREFORE NOT AS WET OR COOL AS MON AND TUE. HOWEVER GIVEN CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD POOL ALOFT SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE. SO BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT. THURSDAY... ALL MODEL GUID SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN...PROMOTING BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. BUT CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ALONG WITH COLD POOL ALOFT. SO MORE OF THE SAME...SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS. MARITIME AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO MODIFY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFT TO THE SSW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPS GIVEN STRONG JUNE SUN. THIS SOLAR HEATING WILL ALSO RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND -18C TO -20C! THUS LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WITH A LOW PROB OF SMALL HAIL. FRIDAY/SAT... AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOME TIMING AND MAGNITUDE DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND PRESERVE CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONCE AGAIN NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT. SUNDAY... ABOVE AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT ON MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND BEING REPLACED BY HEIGHT RISES AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REDEVELOPS FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER. GIVEN THE WARMING TEMPS ALOFT FELT CONFIDENT TO LEAVE FORECAST DRY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO LOW CIGS...BUT PERIODS OF VFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN CT VALLEY. IFR VSBYS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST UNTIL THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE LIKELY DECREASING A BIT TONIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR DURING TUE...ESPECIALLY CT VALLEY. STRONGEST GUSTS TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE S. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH IMPROVING CIGS DURING TUE. STRONGEST GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF VFR ARE POSSIBLE. IMPROVING TO VFR TUE. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN. WINDS SLACKEN AND BECOME LGT/VRB. CIGS MAY LIFT TO VFR DURING WED AFTN. THU/FRI...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR VFR. LOW RISK OF AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. && .MARINE... EASTERN COASTAL WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE INCREASING NELY FLOW INTO THIS EVNG WITH GALE FORCE WINDS /GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE PSBL OVER STELLWAGEN BANK/. SEAS INCREASING 10-12 FT ALONG THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SEAS AROUND 8 FT OUTSIDE THE INNER HARBORS AND BAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THRU THE EVNG PD INTO TUESDAY. LIKELY VSBY IMPACTS. SOUTHERN WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE GALES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR NANTUCKET BAY AND FOR THE OUTER WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO THE EVNG PD. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT ADV IN EFFECT FOR WINDS AROUND 25 KTS BUT REMAINING BELOW GALE FORCE. SEAS OF 6-8 FT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE S OUTER WATERS /BUILDING LESSER SO DUE TO TERRAIN SHIELDING THE WATERS FROM FASTER NELY FLOW/. WIDESPREAD RAIN ANTICIPATED AND LIKELY LEADING TO VSBY IMPACTS. OUTLOOK...TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI... TUE NGT/WED... GALE CENTER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SEAWARD AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. WINDS SLACKEN BUT NE SWELLS PERSIST. VSBY MAY BE POOR IN MORNING FOG AND DRIZZLE. THU/FRI... WEAK HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND IMPROVING VSBY. LIGHT WINDS BUT NE SWELLS MAY LINGER. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... * COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AROUND NOON ALONG THE EAST COAST * COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST EXPANDED TO NANTUCKET AROUND NOON... ONLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN SPOTS WAS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDAY TIDE. WE WILL BE EVALUATING ACTUAL REPORTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TONIGHT... NEW 12Z NAM FITS WITH PRIOR GUIDANCE FOR WIND FLOW THRU TONIGHT. CONFIDENT OF WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT AND HAVE CONTINUED WARNING AS WELL AS ADDED NANTUCKET. ONSHORE WIND AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING FOR COAST JUST EAST OF NANTUCKET. WE ADJUSTED SEAS ABOVE GUIDANCE SOME GIVEN OUR EXPERIENCE WITH EFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN NE WIND CASES. THE NE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO EASE A LITTLE IN THE FEW HOURS LEADING TO HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE COD. THE TIMING OF THAT EASING OF THE GRADIENT IS CRITICAL AS TO THE MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING WE WILL SEE. SINCE MODELS TEND TO BE A LITTLE FAST TO EASE OFF THE GRADIENT ON QUASI-STATIONARY COASTAL STORMS...WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT OF THE GRADIENT EASING NORTH OF BOSTON THAN SOUTH OF BOSTON. PRIOR TO ANY EASING OF THE GRADIENT THIS EVENING...WE ARE ANTICIPATING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIRECTLY ONSHORE AT ABOUT A 040 DEGREES DIRECTION. CONSIDERABLE FETCH AND DURATION SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL WAVE GENERATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS CLIMBING ANOTHER COUPLE OF FEET OR SO FROM PRESENT. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER FOR THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE LONGER PERIOD WAVES THAN LAST NIGHT AND THUS HIGHER ENERGY WAVE ACTION. TAKING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER...WE ARE ANTICIPATING COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR IN MAGNITUDE AS LAST NIGHT FOR THE SHORELINE NORTH OF BOSTON...AND PROBABLY SOMEWHAT MORE SIGNIFICANT FOR THE COASTLINE SOUTH OF BOSTON INCLUDING THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. WE ARE PROJECTING A STORM SURGE OF 1.3 TO 1.5 FEET AT THE TIME OF MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE FROM SALISBURY TO BOSTON. FROM BOSTON TO PLYMOUTH...WE ARE THINKING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 FEET. FOR NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORELINES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...WE ARE THINKING CLOSER TO 1.8 FEET AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. WE ARE PROJECTING SEAS OF GENERALLY 12 TO 15 FEET JUST A FEW MILES OFFSHORE OF THE COAST WITH PERIODS GENERALLY 9 TO 12 SECONDS. THE OTHER TIDE ISSUE OF CONSEQUENCE IS BEACH EROSION. GIVEN THE DURATION AND FETCH THAT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS...WE THINK BEACH EROSION WILL QUITE SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY FOR OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WHICH MAY BE MOST EXPOSED TO LARGE AND RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WAVES AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. AT LEAST SOME BEACH EROSION WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL WIND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. WE APPRECIATE ANY REAL TIME OR NEAR REAL TIME FEEDBACK ON TIDE IMPACTS VIA STORM REPORTER...WEB SPOTTER OR OTHER MEANS. TUE NIGHT... MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY AGAIN TUE NIGHT WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. WHILE THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER E WITH TIME...CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THREAT. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ019. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ022-024. NH...NONE. RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ002-004>007. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-233>235- 237-256. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ236. GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254-255. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL |
| #516018 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:56 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1248 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .AVIATION... VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR OR ABOVE 040. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 020 AND POSSIBLY VSBYS 3-5 NM /LOWER AT KMCB/ ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH 14-15Z TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AGAIN AFTER MID MORNING TUESDAY...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF LOWER CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 22/TD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ UPDATE... ..SOUNDING DISCUSSION... NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. THE SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW...AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW MORNINGS...A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE INTO THE MID 70S IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING WITH LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. PW VALUES ARE NEAR 1.2 INCHES AGAIN WITH A LARGE INVERSION IN PLACE AROUND 2500 FEET AND EXTENDING UPWARDS QUITE A BIT. THIS...ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE...WILL DETER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TODAY. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT THE SURFACE AND OUT OF THE WEST ALOFT. 98/SO PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWESTWARD TO A LOW IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING OVER THE GULF WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TRIGGERING THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH. A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SHORT TERM... SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...CURRENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EFFECTIVELY BECOMES A COLD FRONT AND NEARS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH INHERITED FORECAST. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. 35 LONG TERM... EASTERN UPPER TROF KEEPS GENERAL UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO WEDNESDAY. TROF EVENTUALLY SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WITH TEMPORARY RIDGING ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY DURING THE EXTENDED. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN UPPER WEAKNESS/LOW OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GFS HAS BEEN HIGHLY INCONSISTENT WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHILE ECMWF HAS HAD A BETTER LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY. WILL TREND TOWARD WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION...AND WE MAY NEED TO RAISE RAIN CHANCES FROM CURRENT FORECAST LEVELS IF THAT SOLUTION REMAINS THE PREFERRED ONE. 35 AVIATION... PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD....AROUND 10-12Z ON TUESDAY. KMCB AND KHUM WILL BE MOST PRONE TO ANY FOG FORMATION...AS A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. FORTUNATELY...ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE. 32 MARINE... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE A COASTAL JET DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUNDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. FOR A FEW HOURS EACH NIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS...AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 3 FEET. THIS PHENOMENON WILL DISSIPATE BY DAYBREAK...WITH A MORE GENERAL 10 TO 15 KNOT WIND EXPECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS IMPACTED BY THIS NOCTURNAL COASTAL JET...WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST COMPONENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND STALLS. HOWEVER...WITH A LACK OF STRONG COLD OR DRY AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 2 FEET. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD PUSH SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS BY SATURDAY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET. 32 DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...GREEN. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...NONE. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 91 71 90 70 / 10 10 30 30 BTR 92 73 92 74 / 10 10 20 30 ASD 91 73 91 74 / 10 10 20 30 MSY 90 75 91 75 / 10 10 20 30 GPT 90 75 89 74 / 10 10 20 30 PQL 90 72 91 72 / 10 10 20 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516017 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 146 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TODAY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... DOUBLE BARRELED UPPER LOW WAS PIVOTING OVER/INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH ONE LOBE COMBINING WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NW FROM A WEAK LOW OFF THE NJ COAST TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS IN NYC METRO NW INTO ORANGE COUNTY...AND THE SECOND LOBE ABOUT TO PIVOT S INTO CT. POP ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED COVERAGE/MOVEMENT OF THESE AREAS...WITH COVERAGE DROPPING TO SCATTERED IN NYC METRO THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INCREASING TO SCATTERED ELSEWHERE. POP MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON EVOLUTION. ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWNWARD A LITTLE BASED ON 13Z GFS LAMP GUIDANCE... WITH UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THE RULE...AND MOT MUCH HIGHER THAN CURRENT TEMPS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE TROUGH SHIFTING EVEN FARTHER SOUTH. EXPECT ISOLD/SCT SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS ERN CT/LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST BEGINS TO DEEPEN A LITTLE...AND AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN. FOR TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WITH THE COLD POOL STILL ALOFT AND THE MODELS SHOWING YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THE AREA...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AGAIN...WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES MORE TOWARDS THE WESTERN ZONES AS PER MODEL QPF OUTPUT AND SHORTWAVE POSITIONING. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH A LITTLE CAPE AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NAM AND MAV MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A BLEND USED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW AND RESULTANT OFFSHORE LOW ON VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING NE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THURSDAY THE RESULT WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGHING AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND SCT AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTMS DURING PEAK HEATING WED-THU. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATER ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH BETTER SURFACE INSTABILITY. ALSO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DECREASE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY DUE TO DECREASING COLD POOL INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. ISOLATED TO SCT SHRA ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON SHORTWAVE TIMING...PARTICULARLY TUES AND WED NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS ON FRI. THIS WILL LIMIT THE LAPSE RATES AND ALLOW FOR AN UPTICK IN TEMPS. PCPN COVERAGE LIMITED TO ISOLD. PEAK TIME AGAIN DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. H5 RIDGE AXIS ROTATES EWD INTO THE CWA FOR SAT PER THE GFS. ECMWF HOLDS BACK THE RIDGE. FCST KEPT DRY FOR NOW AS THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT...BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR ADJUSTMENT SHOULD THE PATTERN IN THE ECMWF VERIFY. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE FROM BELOW SEASONABLE TO ABOVE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DECREASING CLOUD/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EACH DAY AND RISING HEIGHTS. TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED EAST BEGINS TO DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW THROUGH 18Z. NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH VARYING CEILINGS FROM VFR TO AROUND 2500 FT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY OCCUR INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE SOUTH OF THE NYC TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL DRYING LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP CEILINGS VFR. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS INTO THIS EVENING EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH VARYING CEILINGS...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 2 TO 3 KFT. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH VARYING CEILINGS...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 2 TO 3 KFT. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VARYING CEILINGS...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 2 TO 3 KFT. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VARYING CEILINGS...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 2 TO 3 KFT. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VARYING CEILINGS...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 2 TO 3 KFT. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH VARYING CEILINGS...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 2 TO 3 KFT. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY...VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF CEILINGS 2500 FT TO 3000 FT WITH ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...MAINLY IN THE AFT/EARLY EVE HOURS. .SATURDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FOR WINDS AND SEAS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST 5 FT SEAS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE SCA THERE MIGHT NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TUE EVENING. A FAVORABLE ENE TO NE WIND FLOW ELSEWHERE SHOULD ALLOW SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND SOUND. HAVE THEREFORE PUT A SCA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OCEAN SEAS SHOULD QUIET DOWN LATER TUE NIGHT. THEN SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH WEAK FLOW OVER THE WATERS. && .HYDROLOGY... SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS COULD DELIVER 1/2 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN... WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NYC METRO. WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN NOT EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI... WITH MAINLY SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY EXPECTED. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT HIGH TIDES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A MODERATE NE FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST. SIMILAR TIDAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TIDAL LEVELS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ009-010. NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ072-074-075-079>081-178-179. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-073-078-176-177. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ006. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350. && $$ |
| #516016 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:50 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 138 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH WSW WINDS NEAR 10 KT. HOWEVER, INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND WINDS COULD BECOME SE AT KFLL BY 4 PM. THE SEA BREEZE LIKELY WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE OTHER ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ESP AFTER 4 PM. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS TO AROUND 50 KT AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER, THE LIKELIHOOD OF A STORM IMPACTING A TERMINAL IS LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE STORMS EXPECTED. ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY 01Z WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER OVERNIGHT. /GREGORIA && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012/ UPDATE... AS OF 14Z TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN AT THIS POINT YESTERDAY. 12Z MFL SOUNDING DEPICTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 19C WITH VERY UNSTABLE MID LEVELS. LEFT ONGOING POPS ALONE AS ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE BUT WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS THEY ARE...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IF A PRONOUNCED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CAN DEVELOP. STORMS SHOULD OCCUR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR BEGINS TO INCREASE HELPING TO CREATE A STRONG CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ACROSS COASTAL PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES AS WELL AS JUST OFFSHORE. SEE LATEST HWO FOR MAIN THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012/ AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL PROVIDE A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY STAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, SO FOR NOW KEPT WINDS WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SE WIND DEVELOPS AFTER 4 PM. WILL RE-ASSESS THIS WITH THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST COAST SO MAINTAINED VCTS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION...THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, A TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A WESTERLY FLOW TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT, A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVE LATER TODAY. AT LEAST A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z/19Z, MAINLY DUE TO SOME MODEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE QUITE WARM TODAY ON THE WESTERLY FLOW, AND WE GENERALLY WENT 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS ALONG THE EAST COAST, WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY TO REACH 90-93F. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND THEN INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN GREATEST IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE FORCED SOUTH BY TUESDAY EVENING AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ADVANCES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE MORE ACTIVE AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS FURTHER INCREASE AND WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THERE REMAINS SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED. THE STRENGTH AND ULTIMATE PATH OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL GULF, ALONG WITH THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS FED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. REGARDLESS, AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS LIKELY WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MID-UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXIMA AND THE EXTENT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY, A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG DURING THIS PERIOD. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE TOO STRONG AND DEEP TO ALLOW FOR ROBUST EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY (OR ITS REMNANTS) SLUGGISHLY PUSHING SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL STAY NORTH, ALONG THE FRONT, AND ALSO OVER THE GULF. AS THE BOUNDARY DISINTEGRATES AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS AND BECOMES MORE EASTERLY, SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY. AVIATION...06Z ISSUANCE...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE KEYS TODAY...WITH STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. ONLY THE LOCAL WRF IS SHOWING ANY TYPE OF SEA BREEZE TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND IT IS ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 16 AND 19Z BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WITH SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SEA BREEZE LASTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ATTM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP THE PREVIOUS MENTION IN THE TAF FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 5-10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SEAS MAINLY 4 FEET OR LESS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. AS THE FRONT STALLS AND THEN WEAKENS LATE IN THE WEEK, WINDS MAY SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 91 75 92 74 / 20 20 40 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 92 77 92 77 / 20 20 40 20 MIAMI 93 76 92 77 / 20 20 40 20 NAPLES 88 74 86 76 / 10 10 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516015 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 136 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES...AS A DEVELOPING NOR EASTER BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND INTENSIFIES EAST OF CAPE COD. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY MID TO LATE WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1230 PM UPDATE... WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS COMMA HEAD/TROWAL RAINS CONTINUE TO PIVOT SOUTH ACROSS SNE AS WARM CONVEYOR BELT WRAPS AROUND MID LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVSY FOR E COAST MA. WINDS WILL PROBABLY FALL JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA BURT GIVEN ITS JUNE WITH FULL FOLIAGE ON THE TREES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME BRANCHES/LIMBS DOWN. UNSEASONABLY COOL AND RAW DAY WITH MINIMAL TEMP RECOVERY EXPECTED...MORE LIKE APRIL THAN EARLY JUNE. TEMPS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING DURING TONIGHT/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... SYNOPTIC SITUATION... SFC LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK GRADUALLY SLINKING SEWD FURTHER AWAY FROM SHORE...PUSHED MORESO BY HIGH PRES BUILDING S OUT OF CANADA AND ROUNDING THE STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN /NEGATIVE NAO/ ACROSS THE N ATLANTIC. A TROWAL/DEFORMATION AXIS COLLOCATED WITH THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND STRATIFORM RAINS /EASILY DISCERNABLE PRESENTLY IN THE WV IMAGERY/ SWEEPS S ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY... COLLOCATED WITH AN AXIS OF STRONG NELY BOUNDARY LYR FLOW OF 30 TO 35 MPH. WINDS SHOULD RELAX INTO MONDAY NIGHT YET CONTINUALLY DRAW COOLER AIR SWD. THE NEARLY STACKED LOW PRES DOES NOT WOBBLE FAR INTO THE MIDWEEK PD...ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND A CONTINUED COOL MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE RGN LIKELY RESULTING IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN WX FOR TUESDAY. TONIGHT... AS THE SFC LOW PIVOTS SEWD...THE BETTER TROWAL/DEFORMATION AXIS PRESSES OFFSHORE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINS TO DIMINISH. BUT DURING THE INITIAL PD THE STRONGEST OF LOW-LVL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED WITH A NELY 35 KT LLJ /H925/ PERSISTING ACROSS THE ERN SHORES AND THE CAPE AS LATE AS EARLY MORNING HRS. ONCE AGAIN...THE WRF-NMM MDL FCST IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH 40-45 KTS AT H925. WIND ADV WILL CONTINUE INTO 6Z ACCORDINGLY. IN ADDITION...ASTRO TIDES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ONE TO TWO TENTHS HIGHER...AND WITH THE LONG PREVAILING NELY FLOW /THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL CENTER AROUND DUSK WITH H925 FLOW...2-3 KFT AGL...AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH/ SWELL AND HIGH SURF WILL BE BUILT UP ALONG THE ERN SHORES OF MA. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE AS LIKELY A SIMILAR IF NOT GREATER IMPACT ALONG SHORELINE COMMUNITIES WILL BE OBSERVED AS WAS THE CASE SUNDAY NIGHT /SEE LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORT FOR LAST NIGHTS COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS/. TUESDAY... MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL SE OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND STRONGER LOW-LVL FLOW. YET NEVERTHELESS A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL. A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND THE STRONG ANGLE OF THE SUN SHOULD PROMOTE LOW-LVL MIXING AND DIURNAL INVIGORATION OF SCTD SHOWERS AND PSBL THUNDERSTORMS /ALBEIT INSTABILITY IS WEAK/. CHC POPS WARRANTED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THU * COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING LATE WEEK * PATTERN CHANGE POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK MODEL PREFERENCES... 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS NA THIS PERIOD...WHICH FEATURES A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED OCEAN CYCLONE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AT 00Z WED...THEN SLOWLY DRIFTING SEAWARD TO NEWFOUNDLAND BY FRI. BY LATE FRI INTO SAT MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER THE 12Z ECENS AND THE 00Z UKMET LEND SOME SUPPORT TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI INTO SAT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS CHANCE POPS SO WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. CPC ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CURRENT HIGHLY ANOMALOUS NEGATIVE NAO /INDEX -2/ BEGINS TO TREND TOWARD ZERO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUGGEST A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REDEVELOPING FROM THE MID ATLC INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD FAVOR A TREND TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER INTO NEW ENGLAND. STAY TUNED! SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS... TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCEAN STORM SLOWLY DRIFT INTO ATLC CANADA. THUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT/COMMA HEAD RAINS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. THEREFORE NOT AS WET OR COOL AS MON AND TUE. HOWEVER GIVEN CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD POOL ALOFT SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE. SO BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT. THURSDAY... ALL MODEL GUID SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN...PROMOTING BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. BUT CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ALONG WITH COLD POOL ALOFT. SO MORE OF THE SAME...SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS. MARITIME AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO MODIFY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFT TO THE SSW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPS GIVEN STRONG JUNE SUN. THIS SOLAR HEATING WILL ALSO RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND -18C TO -20C! THUS LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WITH A LOW PROB OF SMALL HAIL. FRIDAY/SAT... AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOME TIMING AND MAGNITUDE DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND PRESERVE CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONCE AGAIN NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT. SUNDAY... ABOVE AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT ON MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND BEING REPLACED BY HEIGHT RISES AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REDEVELOPS FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER. GIVEN THE WARMING TEMPS ALOFT FELT CONFIDENT TO LEAVE FORECAST DRY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT 7 AM UPDATE... OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENCE PROBABLY THE BEST FORECAST WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY. THEREFORE IFR CIGS WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN A GOOD BET ACROSS EASTERN MA WITH MVFR LIKELY ELSEWHERE IN MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS. NNE WINDS UP TO 35 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CAPE COD/NANTUCKET AND POSSIBLY INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TUE...LIKELY INVIGORATING RENEWED WIDESPREAD SHOWERY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS...DISSIPATING TOWARDS EVNG. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MARGINAL MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS. GUSTY N WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS OF 20-30 KT. GUSTS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THE EVNG PD. INTERMITTENT VSBY IMPACTS DUE TO -RA EXPECTED...YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR IN SHOWERS. MODEST NLY FLOW THRU THE DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS LIKELY LINGERING INTO THE EVNG PD. INTERMITTENT VSBY IMPACTS DUE TO -RA EXPECTED...YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... TUE NIGHT/WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN. WINDS SLACKEN AND BECOME LGT/VRB. CIGS MAY LIFT TO VFR DURING WED AFTN. THU/FRI...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR VFR. LOW RISK OF AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. && .MARINE... EASTERN COASTAL WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE INCREASING NELY FLOW INTO THIS EVNG WITH GALE FORCE WINDS /GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE PSBL OVER STELLWAGEN BANK/. SEAS INCREASING 10-12 FT ALONG THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SEAS AROUND 8 FT OUTSIDE THE INNER HARBORS AND BAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THRU THE EVNG PD INTO TUESDAY. LIKELY VSBY IMPACTS. SOUTHERN WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE GALES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR NANTUCKET BAY AND FOR THE OUTER WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO THE EVNG PD. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT ADV IN EFFECT FOR WINDS AROUND 25 KTS BUT REMAINING BELOW GALE FORCE. SEAS OF 6-8 FT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE S OUTER WATERS /BUILDING LESSER SO DUE TO TERRAIN SHIELDING THE WATERS FROM FASTER NELY FLOW/. WIDESPREAD RAIN ANTICIPATED AND LIKELY LEADING TO VSBY IMPACTS. OUTLOOK...TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI... TUE NGT/WED... GALE CENTER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SEAWARD AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. WINDS SLACKEN BUT NE SWELLS PERSIST. VSBY MAY BE POOR IN MORNING FOG AND DRIZZLE. THU/FRI... WEAK HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND IMPROVING VSBY. LIGHT WINDS BUT NE SWELLS MAY LINGER. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... * COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS RI AND MA S COAST FOR HI TIDE AROUND 830 PM * COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST EXPANDED TO NANTUCKET THIS EVENING... ISSUING COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR NARRAGANSETT BAY AND ADJOINING BRISTOL MA S COAST. THE SURGE CONTINUES TO RUN 1.0 TO 1.2 FT IN THIS AREA WITH RELATIVELY ROUGH SURF ALONG THE OCEAN EXPOSED SHORLINES. GIVEN THE FACT SPOTTY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CAN OCCUR ON JUST A VERY HIGH SPRING TIDE...WE HAVE INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH A SURGE NEAR 1 FT ON TOP OF THIS EVENING/S VERY HIGH SPRING ASTRO TIDE. TONIGHT... NEW 12Z MODEL RUNS FIT WITH PRIOR GUIDANCE FOR WIND FLOW THRU TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL JET SLIDING SOUTH AND WEAKENING. CONFIDENT OF WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT AND HAVE CONTINUED WARNING AS WELL AS ADDED NANTUCKET. ONSHORE WIND AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING FOR COAST JUST EAST OF NANTUCKET. WE ADJUSTED SEAS ABOVE GUIDANCE SOME GIVEN OUR EXPERIENCE WITH EFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN NE WIND CASES. THE NE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO EASE A LITTLE IN THE FEW HOURS LEADING TO HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE COD. THE TIMING OF THAT EASING OF THE GRADIENT IS CRITICAL AS TO THE MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING WE WILL SEE. SINCE MODELS TEND TO BE A LITTLE FAST TO EASE OFF THE GRADIENT ON QUASI-STATIONARY COASTAL STORMS...WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT OF THE GRADIENT EASING NORTH OF BOSTON THAN SOUTH OF BOSTON. PRIOR TO ANY EASING OF THE GRADIENT THIS EVENING...WE ARE ANTICIPATING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIRECTLY ONSHORE AT ABOUT A 040 DEGREES DIRECTION. CONSIDERABLE FETCH AND DURATION SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL WAVE GENERATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS CLIMBING ANOTHER COUPLE OF FEET OR SO FROM PRESENT. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER FOR THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE LONGER PERIOD WAVES THAN LAST NIGHT AND THUS HIGHER ENERGY WAVE ACTION. TAKING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER...WE ARE ANTICIPATING COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR IN MAGNITUDE AS LAST NIGHT FOR THE SHORELINE NORTH OF BOSTON...AND PROBABLY SOMEWHAT MORE SIGNIFICANT FOR THE COASTLINE SOUTH OF BOSTON INCLUDING THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. WE ARE PROJECTING A STORM SURGE OF 1.3 TO 1.5 FEET AT THE TIME OF MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE FROM SALISBURY TO BOSTON. FROM BOSTON TO PLYMOUTH...WE ARE THINKING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 FEET. FOR NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORELINES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...WE ARE THINKING CLOSER TO 1.8 FEET AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. WE ARE PROJECTING SEAS OF GENERALLY 12 TO 15 FEET JUST A FEW MILES OFFSHORE OF THE COAST WITH PERIODS GENERALLY 9 TO 12 SECONDS. THE OTHER TIDE ISSUE OF CONSEQUENCE IS BEACH EROSION. GIVEN THE DURATION AND FETCH THAT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS...WE THINK BEACH EROSION WILL QUITE SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY FOR OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WHICH MAY BE MOST EXPOSED TO LARGE AND RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WAVES AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. AT LEAST SOME BEACH EROSION WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL WIND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. WE APPRECIATE ANY REAL TIME OR NEAR REAL TIME FEEDBACK ON TIDE IMPACTS VIA STORM REPORTER...WEB SPOTTER OR OTHER MEANS. TUE NIGHT... MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY AGAIN TUE NIGHT WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. WHILE THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER E WITH TIME...CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THREAT. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ019. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ022-024. NH...NONE. RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ002-004>007. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-233>235- 237-256. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ236. GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254-255. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL |
| #516014 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 130 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1:30 PM MONDAY...STRATIFORM RAIN LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS HALLMARK SIGNATURE OF JET DYNAMICS(ELONGATED COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND RACES OFF TO THE EAST. LOOKS LIKE A LULL IN POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON PAST 1800 UTC THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. GFS OMEGA FIELDS SHOW TWO AREAS OF FORCING FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FIRST FROM 0600-1200 UTC WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH THE FRONT. SECOND...MID LEVEL OMEGA AROUND 500MB CLOSER TO 1200 UTC WITH THE FEATURE NOW IN ILLINOIS. WILL HAVE A DRY PERIOD FOR SEVERAL HOURS FROM THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 0600 UTC THEN FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS TRENDS. CONSIDERING ALL OF THE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FLOATING AROUND...ADDED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO OVERNIGHT MINS ACROSS THE BOARD. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. COOL AND DRY ADVECTION OCCURRING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL CREATE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WITH TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW CLIMO. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FROPA BEFORE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WILL ONLY CARRY SCHC ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY...WITH POP FALLING TO SILENT ACROSS THE NC COUNTIES WHICH ARE FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE FRONT. SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRYING OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY...SO EVEN WITH LOWERED HEIGHTS DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER THE MORNING...AND WE SHOULD GET ENOUGH CLEARING TO VIEW THE VENUS TRANSIT TUESDAY EVE. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...TO AROUND 80 IN THE SOUTH. COOL ADVECTION CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST PERSISTS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER IMPULSES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ALOFT DURING THE DAY. WITH THETA-E RIDGE DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA AND RATHER DRY AIR EVIDENT ABOVE 600MB IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE SCHC/LOW CHC POP TO ACCOUNT FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. BEST CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT. TEMPS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 60S AT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...PERSISTENT...NON-JUNE-LIKE...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE FINALLY MOVING AWAY FOR THE WKND. EASTERN TROUGH COMBINED WITH COOL E/NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL...SO WE WILL NOT SEE A WHOLE LOT OF SUNSHINE AT THE END OF THE WEEK EITHER. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES DOWN THE UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL CREATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN FRIDAY...BUT THIS OCCURS AS THE TROUGH IS FINALLY PULLING AWAY AND THE BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY. POTENT UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE THE WEST COAST FRIDAY...AND THIS FINALLY MOVES THE UPPER PATTERN ALONG...ALLOWING FOR THE MIDWEST RIDGE TO PUSH THE EASTERN TROUGH OFFSHORE. THIS WILL FINALLY LEAD TO IMPROVING...AND MORE TYPICAL...JUNE WEATHER WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S. && AS OF 18Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF POTENTIAL BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IS ALREADY INFILTRATING IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. EARLIER TODAY LIGHT SHOWERS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL...CREATING BRIEF MVFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS LIKELY INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATTM...CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED REGARDING EXACT TIMING OF EVENTS...THUS HAVE OPTED TO ONLY HAVE VCTS/VCSH IN CURRENT FCST. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTH BECOMING LIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FROPA. RESIDUAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS ANTICIPATED AS DEPICTED BY CURRENT TIME-HEIGHT/FCST SOUNDING ANALYSIS. FOR NOW HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ANY RESTRICTIONS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1:30 PM MONDAY...MAIN EVENT FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THE WIND SHIFT OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE WINDS VEER FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY BY 1200 UTC. THIS WILL TAKE PLACE PRIMARILY DURING THE 0600 -1200 UTC TIME FRAME. ESSENTIALLY NO COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY SO WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ON THE LOWER END OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE. LATEST SPECTRAL PLOTS SHOW THE WAVE SPECTRUM DOMINATED BY SIX SECOND WIND WAVES WITH A SUBTLE 15 SECOND PERIOD. SHOULD SEE THIS SPECTRUM CONTINUE AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. COOL AIR ADVECTION ON A NE SURGE OCCURS MUCH OF TUESDAY...CREATING WINDS OF 10-15 KTS FROM THE NE. THESE WINDS FORCE BUILDING SEAS...WITH NE WIND WAVES BECOMING 2-4 FT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND THE HIGHEST WAVES NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY OF AMZ250 AND AMZ252. WEAK RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY AND ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO FLUCTUATE FROM NE TO E AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS HELP SEAS FALL BACK TO ONLY 2-3 FT WITH THE SPECTRUM COMPRISED OF A 4-5 SEC NE WIND WAVE...AND A 4-5 SEC E WIND WAVE. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS PERSISTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH WINDS FLUCTUATING FROM E TO NE AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY. ATTM HAVE KEPT WINDS LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT NOTE THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WOULD PROMOTE MUCH STRONGER NE WINDS...AND LIKELY HIGHER WAVES...BUT THIS IS ONLY EVIDENT IN THE FAR MINORITY OF GUIDANCE SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. INSTEAD WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT...AND HENCE SEAS ONLY 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SINCE THE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF MOSTLY A E/NE WIND WAVE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A WAVE SHADOW REGION SW OF FRYING PAN SHOALS IN THE INNER REGIONS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ254. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #516012 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1221 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE SURFACE THERMAL INVERSION COMBINING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD AT VFR HEIGHTS. THE CUMULUS TO SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE EAST TO WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND STABILIZES THE AIRMASS. STRATUS TO REFORM OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP MAINLY WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON TO DECOUPLE THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY AFTER BRIEF PERIODS OF PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS BUT MOSTLY SCATTERED AREAS OF THE LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH MID MORNING. CU FIELD TODAY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE MID TO LATE MORNING THEN SLOWLY BREAK UP AND DISSIPATE EAST TO WEST AS THE DAILY SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. HIGH CLOUDS TO ALSO THIN OUT LATER TODAY. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATER TODAY OVER THE SIERRA MADRE. THE WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PUSH THIS ACTIVITY TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS LATE TONIGHT FROM HIDALGO WEST TO ZAPATA AS SOME CONVECTION COULD MAKE IT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. IN THE WAKE OF THE 500 MB LOW...MID LEVEL WEAKNESS ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STREAMER SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING AND SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO MENTION 20 POPS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE IN UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 100 OVER THE WEST AND HAVE LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE LONGER RANGE CMC/GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ALL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID LEVEL TROFFING BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF TX IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD AND STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH DAY 7. THE BIGGEST DISAGREEMENTS CROP UP IN THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL TROFFING AND THE DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MOVING IN WITH THE TROFFING. THE GFS IS THE DRIEST OF THE THREE MODELS WITH THE MOST EASTWARD PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHILE THE ECMWF AND THE CMC BOTH ADVERTISE A DEEPER MOISTURE POOL CLOSER TO DEEP SOUTH TX WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LOCATED CLOSER TO THE BRO CWA AND THE TX COASTLINE. AT THIS POINT IN TIME AM IN SOMEWHAT OF A DILEMMA FOR WHICH MODELS TO FOLLOW. ON ONE HAND THE ECMWF AND CMC GUIDANCE ARE BOTH TRENDING WETTER WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN STUBBORN IN TRENDING DRIER OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WETTER AND DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WILL MAINTAIN 20 % POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE POPS. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO CLOSE TO MEX MOS TEMP GUIDANCE FOR MINS AND WILL GO ABOVE MEX MOS NUMBERS FOR MAX TEMPS THROUGH THUR AND WILL THEN GO CLOSER TO THE MEX GUIDANCE LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE BUILDING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LOWER THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE TEMPS TO COOL A FEW DEGREES. WILL THEN START TO WARM UP TEMPS ONCE AGAIN ON AND AFTER SUNDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT TO THE EAST AWAY FROM TX AND ALLOWS RIDGING TO BUILD BACK IN PLACE. MARINE /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 17 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 3.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 0250 CDT/0750 UTC. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A FAIRLY DISORGANIZED PGF OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE GULF SWELLS THROUGH FRIDAY. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516011 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:17 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1211 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN PATCHY BR TOWARD SUNRISE TUE. A TEMP GROUP WAS ADDED TO KAEX ONLY AS THE PROB IS LOWER AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AND GENERALLY WEST INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ UPDATE... MINOR UPDATES TO THE ZONES OTHERWISE ZONES LOOK FINE. LOOKING FOR DRY AND WARM TODAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEK. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... FOR THE 04/12Z TAF ISSUANCE. AVIATION... SOME SLIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 04/13Z AT KAEX/KLCH DUE TO PATCHY FOG/HAZE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS TO KEEP ANY SHOWERS FROM FORMING. RUA PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. SHORT TERM...EASTERN ZONES SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THAT DIRECTION PRODUCES INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO AND SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. LONG TERM...PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOK PROMISING BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE CONUS BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG INTO THE AREA AND STALL NEAR THE COAST. DID NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS THE GFS MEX GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PREFERRING THE MORE CONSERVATIVE EURO NUMBERS ON POPS. SOME MENTION OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THERE ARE NO SYSTEMS TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT OF THE COASTAL AREA SINCE THE UPPER TROF REMAINS A PLAYER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SWEENEY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 75 93 72 90 74 / 10 20 20 40 20 KBPT 75 92 72 89 74 / 10 20 20 40 20 KAEX 71 95 72 91 70 / 10 20 20 40 20 KLFT 72 93 72 91 73 / 10 20 20 40 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516010 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:02 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1255 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR TO FILTER SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CAA SURGE NOW EVIDENT IN THE CU FIELD AS IT TRANSLATES SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN THIS AFTRN. W-NW WINDS RATHER GUSTY AT TIMES... ESPECIALLY EASTERN SHORE AREAS. CURRENT TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO FORECASTED HIGHS BUT WITH CAA...DON`T EXPECT TO MUCH MORE OF A RISE. WILL KEEP ISLTD TO SCT POPS IN FORECAST BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE EVEN LESS THAN YESTERDAY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD AIR DAMMING OVER THE PIEDMONT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND A STABILIZING OF THE LOWER LAYERS. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE AND EARLIER FORECASTS AS A RESULT. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LIFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PRODUCE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTN AND HAVE 30 POPS AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES AT 850 WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER BY TUESDAY MORNING AND FOR REASONS MENTIONED EARLIER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 60S ON THE EASTERN SHORE TO THE LOWER 70S OVER INLAND AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR BUT PROBABLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RUN IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT AS PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MOST NOTABLE IS THE AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST (JUST AHEAD OF THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH) ON THURSDAY. AS A COMPARISON...THE 12Z GFS MODEL RUN YESTERDAY HAD THE LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE AKQ CWA ON WEDNESDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAD ROUGHLY THE SAME SOLUTION OCCURRING BUT ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE FA...THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO RELEASE ITS GRIP ON THE NORTHEAST CONUS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING TREND DURING THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GUSTY NW WIND. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON SHOULD BE 10-15KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT. THE WIND SHIFTS TO N AND THEN NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST SOME LOWER CIGS (MVFR) ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT SBY WITH NE FLOW. A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN US MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE. && .MARINE... A W WIND AROUND 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN SHIFTS TO NE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S IN THE BAY AND RIVERS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ACTUALLY CREATE DECENT MIXING OVER THE WATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. HENCE SCA FLAGS WILL BE RAISED BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE RIVERS AND N-S OVER THE BAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LOW END SCA (18-20KT)...BUT A BRIEF STRONGER SURGE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AN SCA WILL ALSO BE RAISED FOR THE SOUND BEGINNING THIS EVENING. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT A SECONDARY SURGE IS LIKELY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HENCE ALL THE SCA WILL RUN THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RIVERS EXCLUDING THE LOWER JAMES. NE FLOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH SEAS TO 5FT OR GREATER LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY. SCA FLAGS FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT 5FT SEAS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SEAS REMAINING AROUND 3-4FT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A FULL MOON AND ONSHORE FLOW. THE LATEST EXTRATROPICAL GUIDANCE HAS OCEAN CITY INLET EXCEEDING THE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING STAGE DURING THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MD ATLANTIC COAST AND ADJACENT BAYS. ALSO...A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OTHER SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. WATER LEVELS DURING TUESDAY EVENINGS HIGH TIDE WILL BE AROUND MINOR STAGE FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS DURING HIGH TIDE BASED ON THE LATEST MDL GUIDANCE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ024-025. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ635>637. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632- 634-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654- 656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR |
| #516008 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:51 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1246 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING THEN SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN LATE THURSDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1240 PM MONDAY...LARGE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA AND WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 4 KM WRF INDICATES SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 80 AND 85 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL DROP S OF THE REGION TONIGHT. CONT ISOLD POP SRN TIER EARLY WITH FROPA THEN MAINLY DRY. MDLS DO SHOW STRONGER SRT WAVE APPROACHING LATE NRN TIER SO CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD SHRA DEVELOPING THESE AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK. WITH CAA DEVELOPING LOW WILL RANGE FROM UPR 50S NW TIER TO MID/UPR 60S SRN BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 AM MON...AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND LONG WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE REGION. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS WELL BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEARLY EVERY DAY. GENERALLY FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SHORT WAVES ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN NOT VERY HIGH IN ANY ONE OPERATIONAL MODEL. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WED WITH AN EVEN STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE THU AND WILL KEEP CHC POPS THESE PERIODS. WITH EACH SHORTWAVE MODELS DEVELOP LOW PRES ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WHICH EJECTS EWD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. JUST HOW CLOSE TO THE REGION AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS THESE LOW PRES AREA WILL HAVE ON THE REGION REMAINS UNCERTAIN. UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE LATE THU SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL BRING A DRIER PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK EXPECTED TO REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THEN WARM TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS RISE. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND DESPITE A SWITCH TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME BY LATE TONIGHT...MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP AWAY FOG OR STRATUS AND KEEP THINGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 AM MON...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM BRINGING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOK LIKE WED THROUGH EARLY FRI WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AT THE TERMINALS BUT NOT EXPECTED PROLONGED WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR STRENGTH OF IMPULSES REMAINS BELOW NORMAL. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...WEST WINDS CONTINUE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FEET WITH THOSE LONG PERIOD SWELLS (12 TO 15 SECONDS) PERSISTING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD START THE IMPACT THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH FLOW BECOMING NW THEN GRADUALLY NE BY LATER TONIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 AM MON...A COLD FRONT WILL STALL S OF THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE REGION. A NELY SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUE AT AROUND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO 3-5 FT ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS TUE AND CONTINUING INTO WED. WINDS BECOME ELY MAINLY BLO 15 KT WED AND THU...THEN PROGGED TO SHIFT BACK TO NELY THU NIGHT AND FRI AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THINK THE LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE LIMITING IMPACT TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND BOTH WAVEWATCH AND SWAN KEEP SEAS AOB 5 FT SO NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #516007 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:51 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1243 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR TO FILTER SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CAA SURGE NOW EVIDENT IN THE CU FIELD AS IT TRANSLATES SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN THIS AFTRN. W-NW WINDS RATHER GUSTY AT TIMES... ESPECIALLY EASTERN SHORE AREAS. CURRENT TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO FORECASTED HIGHS BUT WITH CAA...DON`T EXPECT TO MUCH MORE OF A RISE. WILL KEEP ISLTD TO SCT POPS IN FORECAST N OF VA BORDER BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE EVEN LESS THAN YESTERDAY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD AIR DAMMING OVER THE PIEDMONT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND A STABILIZING OF THE LOWER LAYERS. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE AND EARLIER FORECASTS AS A RESULT. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LIFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PRODUCE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTN AND HAVE 30 POPS AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES AT 850 WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER BY TUESDAY MORNING AND FOR REASONS MENTIONED EARLIER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 60S ON THE EASTERN SHORE TO THE LOWER 70S OVER INLAND AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR BUT PROBABLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RUN IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT AS PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MOST NOTABLE IS THE AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST (JUST AHEAD OF THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH) ON THURSDAY. AS A COMPARISON...THE 12Z GFS MODEL RUN YESTERDAY HAD THE LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE AKQ CWA ON WEDNESDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAD ROUGHLY THE SAME SOLUTION OCCURRING BUT ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE FA...THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO RELEASE ITS GRIP ON THE NORTHEAST CONUS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING TREND DURING THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GUSTY NW WIND. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON SHOULD BE 10-15KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT. THE WIND SHIFTS TO N AND THEN NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST SOME LOWER CIGS (MVFR) ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT SBY WITH NE FLOW. A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN US MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE. && .MARINE... A W WIND AROUND 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN SHIFTS TO NE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S IN THE BAY AND RIVERS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ACTUALLY CREATE DECENT MIXING OVER THE WATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. HENCE SCA FLAGS WILL BE RAISED BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE RIVERS AND N-S OVER THE BAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LOW END SCA (18-20KT)...BUT A BRIEF STRONGER SURGE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AN SCA WILL ALSO BE RAISED FOR THE SOUND BEGINNING THIS EVENING. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT A SECONDARY SURGE IS LIKELY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HENCE ALL THE SCA WILL RUN THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RIVERS EXCLUDING THE LOWER JAMES. NE FLOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH SEAS TO 5FT OR GREATER LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY. SCA FLAGS FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT 5FT SEAS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SEAS REMAINING AROUND 3-4FT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A FULL MOON AND ONSHORE FLOW. THE LATEST EXTRATROPICAL GUIDANCE HAS OCEAN CITY INLET EXCEEDING THE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING STAGE DURING THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MD ATLANTIC COAST AND ADJACENT BAYS. ALSO...A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OTHER SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. WATER LEVELS DURING TUESDAY EVENINGS HIGH TIDE WILL BE AROUND MINOR STAGE FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS DURING HIGH TIDE BASED ON THE LATEST MDL GUIDANCE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ024-025. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ635>637. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632- 634-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654- 656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR |
| #516006 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:39 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1236 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES...AS A DEVELOPING NOR EASTER BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND INTENSIFIES EAST OF CAPE COD. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY MID TO LATE WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1230 PM UPDATE... WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS COMMA HEAD/TROWAL RAINS CONTINUE TO PIVOT SOUTH ACROSS SNE AS WARM CONVEYOR BELT WRAPS AROUND MID LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVSY FOR E COAST MA. WINDS WILL PROBABLY FALL JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA BURT GIVEN ITS JUNE WITH FULL FOLIAGE ON THE TREES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME BRANCHES/LIMBS DOWN. UNSEASONABLY COOL AND RAW DAY WITH MINIMAL TEMP RECOVERY EXPECTED...MORE LIKE APRIL THAN EARLY JUNE. TEMPS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING DURING TONIGHT/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... SYNOPTIC SITUATION... SFC LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK GRADUALLY SLINKING SEWD FURTHER AWAY FROM SHORE...PUSHED MORESO BY HIGH PRES BUILDING S OUT OF CANADA AND ROUNDING THE STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN /NEGATIVE NAO/ ACROSS THE N ATLANTIC. A TROWAL/DEFORMATION AXIS COLLOCATED WITH THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND STRATIFORM RAINS /EASILY DISCERNABLE PRESENTLY IN THE WV IMAGERY/ SWEEPS S ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY... COLLOCATED WITH AN AXIS OF STRONG NELY BOUNDARY LYR FLOW OF 30 TO 35 MPH. WINDS SHOULD RELAX INTO MONDAY NIGHT YET CONTINUALLY DRAW COOLER AIR SWD. THE NEARLY STACKED LOW PRES DOES NOT WOBBLE FAR INTO THE MIDWEEK PD...ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND A CONTINUED COOL MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE RGN LIKELY RESULTING IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN WX FOR TUESDAY. TONIGHT... AS THE SFC LOW PIVOTS SEWD...THE BETTER TROWAL/DEFORMATION AXIS PRESSES OFFSHORE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINS TO DIMINISH. BUT DURING THE INITIAL PD THE STRONGEST OF LOW-LVL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED WITH A NELY 35 KT LLJ /H925/ PERSISTING ACROSS THE ERN SHORES AND THE CAPE AS LATE AS EARLY MORNING HRS. ONCE AGAIN...THE WRF-NMM MDL FCST IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH 40-45 KTS AT H925. WIND ADV WILL CONTINUE INTO 6Z ACCORDINGLY. IN ADDITION...ASTRO TIDES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ONE TO TWO TENTHS HIGHER...AND WITH THE LONG PREVAILING NELY FLOW /THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL CENTER AROUND DUSK WITH H925 FLOW...2-3 KFT AGL...AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH/ SWELL AND HIGH SURF WILL BE BUILT UP ALONG THE ERN SHORES OF MA. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE AS LIKELY A SIMILAR IF NOT GREATER IMPACT ALONG SHORELINE COMMUNITIES WILL BE OBSERVED AS WAS THE CASE SUNDAY NIGHT /SEE LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORT FOR LAST NIGHTS COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS/. TUESDAY... MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL SE OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND STRONGER LOW-LVL FLOW. YET NEVERTHELESS A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL. A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND THE STRONG ANGLE OF THE SUN SHOULD PROMOTE LOW-LVL MIXING AND DIURNAL INVIGORATION OF SCTD SHOWERS AND PSBL THUNDERSTORMS /ALBEIT INSTABILITY IS WEAK/. CHC POPS WARRANTED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THU * COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING LATE WEEK * PATTERN CHANGE POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK MODEL PREFERENCES... 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS NA THIS PERIOD...WHICH FEATURES A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED OCEAN CYCLONE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AT 00Z WED...THEN SLOWLY DRIFTING SEAWARD TO NEWFOUNDLAND BY FRI. BY LATE FRI INTO SAT MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER THE 12Z ECENS AND THE 00Z UKMET LEND SOME SUPPORT TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI INTO SAT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS CHANCE POPS SO WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. CPC ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CURRENT HIGHLY ANOMALOUS NEGATIVE NAO /INDEX -2/ BEGINS TO TREND TOWARD ZERO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUGGEST A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REDEVELOPING FROM THE MID ATLC INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD FAVOR A TREND TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER INTO NEW ENGLAND. STAY TUNED! SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS... TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCEAN STORM SLOWLY DRIFT INTO ATLC CANADA. THUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT/COMMA HEAD RAINS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. THEREFORE NOT AS WET OR COOL AS MON AND TUE. HOWEVER GIVEN CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD POOL ALOFT SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE. SO BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT. THURSDAY... ALL MODEL GUID SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN...PROMOTING BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. BUT CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ALONG WITH COLD POOL ALOFT. SO MORE OF THE SAME...SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS. MARITIME AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO MODIFY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFT TO THE SSW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPS GIVEN STRONG JUNE SUN. THIS SOLAR HEATING WILL ALSO RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND -18C TO -20C! THUS LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WITH A LOW PROB OF SMALL HAIL. FRIDAY/SAT... AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOME TIMING AND MAGNITUDE DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND PRESERVE CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONCE AGAIN NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT. SUNDAY... ABOVE AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT ON MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND BEING REPLACED BY HEIGHT RISES AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REDEVELOPS FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER. GIVEN THE WARMING TEMPS ALOFT FELT CONFIDENT TO LEAVE FORECAST DRY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT 7 AM UPDATE... OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENCE PROBABLY THE BEST FORECAST WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY. THEREFORE IFR CIGS WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN A GOOD BET ACROSS EASTERN MA WITH MVFR LIKELY ELSEWHERE IN MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS. NNE WINDS UP TO 35 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CAPE COD/NANTUCKET AND POSSIBLY INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TUE...LIKELY INVIGORATING RENEWED WIDESPREAD SHOWERY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS...DISSIPATING TOWARDS EVNG. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MARGINAL MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS. GUSTY N WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS OF 20-30 KT. GUSTS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THE EVNG PD. INTERMITTENT VSBY IMPACTS DUE TO -RA EXPECTED...YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR IN SHOWERS. MODEST NLY FLOW THRU THE DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS LIKELY LINGERING INTO THE EVNG PD. INTERMITTENT VSBY IMPACTS DUE TO -RA EXPECTED...YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... TUE NIGHT/WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN. WINDS SLACKEN AND BECOME LGT/VRB. CIGS MAY LIFT TO VFR DURING WED AFTN. THU/FRI...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR VFR. LOW RISK OF AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. && .MARINE... EASTERN COASTAL WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE INCREASING NELY FLOW INTO THIS EVNG WITH GALE FORCE WINDS /GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE PSBL OVER STELLWAGEN BANK/. SEAS INCREASING 10-12 FT ALONG THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SEAS AROUND 8 FT OUTSIDE THE INNER HARBORS AND BAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THRU THE EVNG PD INTO TUESDAY. LIKELY VSBY IMPACTS. SOUTHERN WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE GALES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR NANTUCKET BAY AND FOR THE OUTER WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO THE EVNG PD. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT ADV IN EFFECT FOR WINDS AROUND 25 KTS BUT REMAINING BELOW GALE FORCE. SEAS OF 6-8 FT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE S OUTER WATERS /BUILDING LESSER SO DUE TO TERRAIN SHIELDING THE WATERS FROM FASTER NELY FLOW/. WIDESPREAD RAIN ANTICIPATED AND LIKELY LEADING TO VSBY IMPACTS. OUTLOOK...TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI... TUE NGT/WED... GALE CENTER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SEAWARD AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. WINDS SLACKEN BUT NE SWELLS PERSIST. VSBY MAY BE POOR IN MORNING FOG AND DRIZZLE. THU/FRI... WEAK HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND IMPROVING VSBY. LIGHT WINDS BUT NE SWELLS MAY LINGER. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... * COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AROUND NOON ALONG THE EAST COAST * COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST EXPANDED TO NANTUCKET AROUND NOON... ONLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN SPOTS WAS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDAY TIDE. WE WILL BE EVALUATING ACTUAL REPORTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TONIGHT... NEW 12Z NAM FITS WITH PRIOR GUIDANCE FOR WIND FLOW THRU TONIGHT. CONFIDENT OF WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT AND HAVE CONTINUED WARNING AS WELL AS ADDED NANTUCKET. ONSHORE WIND AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING FOR COAST JUST EAST OF NANTUCKET. WE ADJUSTED SEAS ABOVE GUIDANCE SOME GIVEN OUR EXPERIENCE WITH EFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN NE WIND CASES. THE NE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO EASE A LITTLE IN THE FEW HOURS LEADING TO HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE COD. THE TIMING OF THAT EASING OF THE GRADIENT IS CRITICAL AS TO THE MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING WE WILL SEE. SINCE MODELS TEND TO BE A LITTLE FAST TO EASE OFF THE GRADIENT ON QUASI-STATIONARY COASTAL STORMS...WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT OF THE GRADIENT EASING NORTH OF BOSTON THAN SOUTH OF BOSTON. PRIOR TO ANY EASING OF THE GRADIENT THIS EVENING...WE ARE ANTICIPATING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIRECTLY ONSHORE AT ABOUT A 040 DEGREES DIRECTION. CONSIDERABLE FETCH AND DURATION SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL WAVE GENERATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS CLIMBING ANOTHER COUPLE OF FEET OR SO FROM PRESENT. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER FOR THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE LONGER PERIOD WAVES THAN LAST NIGHT AND THUS HIGHER ENERGY WAVE ACTION. TAKING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER...WE ARE ANTICIPATING COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR IN MAGNITUDE AS LAST NIGHT FOR THE SHORELINE NORTH OF BOSTON...AND PROBABLY SOMEWHAT MORE SIGNIFICANT FOR THE COASTLINE SOUTH OF BOSTON INCLUDING THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. WE ARE PROJECTING A STORM SURGE OF 1.3 TO 1.5 FEET AT THE TIME OF MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE FROM SALISBURY TO BOSTON. FROM BOSTON TO PLYMOUTH...WE ARE THINKING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 FEET. FOR NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORELINES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...WE ARE THINKING CLOSER TO 1.8 FEET AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. WE ARE PROJECTING SEAS OF GENERALLY 12 TO 15 FEET JUST A FEW MILES OFFSHORE OF THE COAST WITH PERIODS GENERALLY 9 TO 12 SECONDS. THE OTHER TIDE ISSUE OF CONSEQUENCE IS BEACH EROSION. GIVEN THE DURATION AND FETCH THAT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS...WE THINK BEACH EROSION WILL QUITE SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY FOR OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WHICH MAY BE MOST EXPOSED TO LARGE AND RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WAVES AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. AT LEAST SOME BEACH EROSION WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL WIND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. WE APPRECIATE ANY REAL TIME OR NEAR REAL TIME FEEDBACK ON TIDE IMPACTS VIA STORM REPORTER...WEB SPOTTER OR OTHER MEANS. TUE NIGHT... MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY AGAIN TUE NIGHT WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. WHILE THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER E WITH TIME...CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THREAT. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ019. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ022-024. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-233>235- 237-256. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ236. GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254-255. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL |
| #516005 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:30 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1218 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES...AS A DEVELOPING NOR EASTER BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND INTENSIFIES EAST OF CAPE COD. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY MID TO LATE WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 10 AM UPDATE... CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE. COMMA HEAD/TROWAL RAINS CONTINUE TO PIVOT SOUTH ACROSS SNE AS WARM CONVEYOR BELT WRAPS AROUND MID LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVSY FOR E COAST MA. WINDS WILL PROBABLY FALL JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA BURT GIVEN ITS JUNE WITH FULL FOLIAGE ON THE TREES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME BRANCHES/LIMBS DOWN. UNSEASONABLY COOL AND RAW DAY WITH MINIMAL TEMP RECOVERY EXPECTED...MORE LIKE APRIL THAN EARLY JUNE. TEMPS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WHILE AFTN ASTRO TIDES ARE LOWER /10.6 FT FOR BOSTON/...CONSIDERING A 1.3 FT SURGE WHICH OCCURRED THE NIGHT PRIOR AND CONTINUED STRONG NELY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG ERN SHORELINES OF MA THIS AFTN. COASTAL FLOOD ADV WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MIDDAY PD. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... SYNOPTIC SITUATION... SFC LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK GRADUALLY SLINKING SEWD FURTHER AWAY FROM SHORE...PUSHED MORESO BY HIGH PRES BUILDING S OUT OF CANADA AND ROUNDING THE STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN /NEGATIVE NAO/ ACROSS THE N ATLANTIC. A TROWAL/DEFORMATION AXIS COLLOCATED WITH THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND STRATIFORM RAINS /EASILY DISCERNABLE PRESENTLY IN THE WV IMAGERY/ SWEEPS S ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY... COLLOCATED WITH AN AXIS OF STRONG NELY BOUNDARY LYR FLOW OF 30 TO 35 MPH. WINDS SHOULD RELAX INTO MONDAY NIGHT YET CONTINUALLY DRAW COOLER AIR SWD. THE NEARLY STACKED LOW PRES DOES NOT WOBBLE FAR INTO THE MIDWEEK PD...ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND A CONTINUED COOL MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE RGN LIKELY RESULTING IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN WX FOR TUESDAY. TONIGHT... AS THE SFC LOW PIVOTS SEWD...THE BETTER TROWAL/DEFORMATION AXIS PRESSES OFFSHORE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINS TO DIMINISH. BUT DURING THE INITIAL PD THE STRONGEST OF LOW-LVL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED WITH A NELY 35 KT LLJ /H925/ PERSISTING ACROSS THE ERN SHORES AND THE CAPE AS LATE AS EARLY MORNING HRS. ONCE AGAIN...THE WRF-NMM MDL FCST IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH 40-45 KTS AT H925. WIND ADV WILL CONTINUE INTO 6Z ACCORDINGLY. IN ADDITION...ASTRO TIDES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ONE TO TWO TENTHS HIGHER...AND WITH THE LONG PREVAILING NELY FLOW /THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL CENTER AROUND DUSK WITH H925 FLOW...2-3 KFT AGL...AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH/ SWELL AND HIGH SURF WILL BE BUILT UP ALONG THE ERN SHORES OF MA. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE AS LIKELY A SIMILAR IF NOT GREATER IMPACT ALONG SHORELINE COMMUNITIES WILL BE OBSERVED AS WAS THE CASE SUNDAY NIGHT /SEE LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORT FOR LAST NIGHTS COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS/. TUESDAY... MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL SE OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND STRONGER LOW-LVL FLOW. YET NEVERTHELESS A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL. A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND THE STRONG ANGLE OF THE SUN SHOULD PROMOTE LOW-LVL MIXING AND DIURNAL INVIGORATION OF SCTD SHOWERS AND PSBL THUNDERSTORMS /ALBEIT INSTABILITY IS WEAK/. CHC POPS WARRANTED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THU * COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING LATE WEEK * PATTERN CHANGE POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK MODEL PREFERENCES... 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS NA THIS PERIOD...WHICH FEATURES A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED OCEAN CYCLONE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AT 00Z WED...THEN SLOWLY DRIFTING SEAWARD TO NEWFOUNDLAND BY FRI. BY LATE FRI INTO SAT MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER THE 12Z ECENS AND THE 00Z UKMET LEND SOME SUPPORT TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI INTO SAT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS CHANCE POPS SO WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. CPC ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CURRENT HIGHLY ANOMALOUS NEGATIVE NAO /INDEX -2/ BEGINS TO TREND TOWARD ZERO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUGGEST A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REDEVELOPING FROM THE MID ATLC INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD FAVOR A TREND TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER INTO NEW ENGLAND. STAY TUNED! SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS... TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCEAN STORM SLOWLY DRIFT INTO ATLC CANADA. THUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT/COMMA HEAD RAINS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. THEREFORE NOT AS WET OR COOL AS MON AND TUE. HOWEVER GIVEN CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD POOL ALOFT SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE. SO BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT. THURSDAY... ALL MODEL GUID SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN...PROMOTING BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. BUT CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ALONG WITH COLD POOL ALOFT. SO MORE OF THE SAME...SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS. MARITIME AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO MODIFY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFT TO THE SSW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPS GIVEN STRONG JUNE SUN. THIS SOLAR HEATING WILL ALSO RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND -18C TO -20C! THUS LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WITH A LOW PROB OF SMALL HAIL. FRIDAY/SAT... AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOME TIMING AND MAGNITUDE DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND PRESERVE CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONCE AGAIN NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT. SUNDAY... ABOVE AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT ON MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND BEING REPLACED BY HEIGHT RISES AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REDEVELOPS FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER. GIVEN THE WARMING TEMPS ALOFT FELT CONFIDENT TO LEAVE FORECAST DRY. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT 7 AM UPDATE... OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENCE PROBABLY THE BEST FORECAST WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY. THEREFORE IFR CIGS WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN A GOOD BET ACROSS EASTERN MA WITH MVFR LIKELY ELSEWHERE IN MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS. NNE WINDS UP TO 35 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CAPE COD/NANTUCKET AND POSSIBLY INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TUE...LIKELY INVIGORATING RENEWED WIDESPREAD SHOWERY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS...DISSIPATING TOWARDS EVNG. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MARGINAL MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS. GUSTY N WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS OF 20-30 KT. GUSTS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THE EVNG PD. INTERMITTENT VSBY IMPACTS DUE TO -RA EXPECTED...YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR IN SHOWERS. MODEST NLY FLOW THRU THE DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS LIKELY LINGERING INTO THE EVNG PD. INTERMITTENT VSBY IMPACTS DUE TO -RA EXPECTED...YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... TUE NIGHT/WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN. WINDS SLACKEN AND BECOME LGT/VRB. CIGS MAY LIFT TO VFR DURING WED AFTN. THU/FRI...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR VFR. LOW RISK OF AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. && .MARINE... EASTERN COASTAL WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE INCREASING NELY FLOW INTO THIS EVNG WITH GALE FORCE WINDS /GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE PSBL OVER STELLWAGEN BANK/. SEAS INCREASING 10-12 FT ALONG THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SEAS AROUND 8 FT OUTSIDE THE INNER HARBORS AND BAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THRU THE EVNG PD INTO TUESDAY. LIKELY VSBY IMPACTS. SOUTHERN WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE GALES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR NANTUCKET BAY AND FOR THE OUTER WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO THE EVNG PD. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT ADV IN EFFECT FOR WINDS AROUND 25 KTS BUT REMAINING BELOW GALE FORCE. SEAS OF 6-8 FT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE S OUTER WATERS /BUILDING LESSER SO DUE TO TERRAIN SHIELDING THE WATERS FROM FASTER NELY FLOW/. WIDESPREAD RAIN ANTICIPATED AND LIKELY LEADING TO VSBY IMPACTS. OUTLOOK...TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI... TUE NGT/WED... GALE CENTER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SEAWARD AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. WINDS SLACKEN BUT NE SWELLS PERSIST. VSBY MAY BE POOR IN MORNING FOG AND DRIZZLE. THU/FRI... WEAK HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND IMPROVING VSBY. LIGHT WINDS BUT NE SWELLS MAY LINGER. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... * COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AROUND NOON ALONG THE EAST COAST * COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST EXPANDED TO NANTUCKET AROUND NOON... ONLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN SPOTS WAS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDAY TIDE. WE WILL BE EVALUATING ACTUAL REPORTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TONIGHT... NEW 12Z NAM FITS WITH PRIOR GUIDANCE FOR WIND FLOW THRU TONIGHT. CONFIDENT OF WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT AND HAVE CONTINUED WARNING AS WELL AS ADDED NANTUCKET. ONSHORE WIND AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING FOR COAST JUST EAST OF NANTUCKET. WE ADJUSTED SEAS ABOVE GUIDANCE SOME GIVEN OUR EXPERIENCE WITH EFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN NE WIND CASES. THE NE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO EASE A LITTLE IN THE FEW HOURS LEADING TO HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE COD. THE TIMING OF THAT EASING OF THE GRADIENT IS CRITICAL AS TO THE MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING WE WILL SEE. SINCE MODELS TEND TO BE A LITTLE FAST TO EASE OFF THE GRADIENT ON QUASI-STATIONARY COASTAL STORMS...WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT OF THE GRADIENT EASING NORTH OF BOSTON THAN SOUTH OF BOSTON. PRIOR TO ANY EASING OF THE GRADIENT THIS EVENING...WE ARE ANTICIPATING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIRECTLY ONSHORE AT ABOUT A 040 DEGREES DIRECTION. CONSIDERABLE FETCH AND DURATION SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL WAVE GENERATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS CLIMBING ANOTHER COUPLE OF FEET OR SO FROM PRESENT. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER FOR THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE LONGER PERIOD WAVES THAN LAST NIGHT AND THUS HIGHER ENERGY WAVE ACTION. TAKING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER...WE ARE ANTICIPATING COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR IN MAGNITUDE AS LAST NIGHT FOR THE SHORELINE NORTH OF BOSTON...AND PROBABLY SOMEWHAT MORE SIGNIFICANT FOR THE COASTLINE SOUTH OF BOSTON INCLUDING THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. WE ARE PROJECTING A STORM SURGE OF 1.3 TO 1.5 FEET AT THE TIME OF MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE FROM SALISBURY TO BOSTON. FROM BOSTON TO PLYMOUTH...WE ARE THINKING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 FEET. FOR NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORELINES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...WE ARE THINKING CLOSER TO 1.8 FEET AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. WE ARE PROJECTING SEAS OF GENERALLY 12 TO 15 FEET JUST A FEW MILES OFFSHORE OF THE COAST WITH PERIODS GENERALLY 9 TO 12 SECONDS. THE OTHER TIDE ISSUE OF CONSEQUENCE IS BEACH EROSION. GIVEN THE DURATION AND FETCH THAT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS...WE THINK BEACH EROSION WILL QUITE SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY FOR OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WHICH MAY BE MOST EXPOSED TO LARGE AND RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD WAVES AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. AT LEAST SOME BEACH EROSION WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL WIND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. WE APPRECIATE ANY REAL TIME OR NEAR REAL TIME FEEDBACK ON TIDE IMPACTS VIA STORM REPORTER...WEB SPOTTER OR OTHER MEANS. TUE NIGHT... MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY AGAIN TUE NIGHT WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. WHILE THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER E WITH TIME...CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THREAT. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ019. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ022-024. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-233>235- 237-256. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ236. GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254-255. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL |
| #516004 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:30 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1221 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND BRING MORE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NEW YORK FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS NEW YORK AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND, A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND SPARK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVE ROTATES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AND THEN CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AROUND AND COOLER AIR BEING DRAWN DOWN WITH THE LOW, WE SHOULD SEE A WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 60S ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION, WITH SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA /MAINLY LOWER 70S/. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME GUSTS UP AROUND 20 MPH OR SO. SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN A FEW SPOTS. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED IN A FEW AREAS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. NOWCASTS HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED...AND A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS ALSO BEEN POSTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... AS THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT, A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SECOND WAVE IS CERTAINLY NOT AS ROBUST AND WILL ONLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO AREA. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE CHILLIER SIDE AS WE DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REMAINING 2/3RDS OF OUR AREA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FCST PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED OVERALL BY A GRADUAL SHIFT FROM AN UPPER LOW DOMINATING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND. THE SFC PATN IS RATHER NON-DESCRIPT WITH GENLY WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA DURG THE WEEK BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OFF- SHORE ON THE WEEKEND. THUS THE WEATHER WILL TEND TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH SCT SHOWERS LIKELY DEVLOPING EACH DAY TUE- THU DURG THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVE. INSTBY LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL BUT AN ISOLD T-STORM SHOULD NOT BE RULED OUT ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE SMWHAT BELOW NORMAL BUT WITH A MODERATING TREND BACK TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES NOW SEEM A BIT LESS FOR FRIDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC. THIS IS INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE WARMING TREND SHOULD CONT INTO THE WEEKEND AS WARMER 850MB TEMPS ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA TODAY. WE HAVE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE TAFS BUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION, WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION THUNDER THIS FAR OUT. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR, THEY MAY DETERIORATE TO MVFR, AND POSSIBLY IFR, IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY EARLY THIS MORNING, BECOMING NORTHEAST AND GUSTY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. SOME ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TAFS AT PHL, PNE, TTN AND ILG TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH, AND THE RESULTANT LOWER CEILING HEIGHTS. THESE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE IN THE TEMPO GROUP OF THE TAFS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A T-STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR CONDS WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A T-STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR CONDS WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST EARLY TODAY AND THEN SHIFT AROUND THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EASTWARDS. MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL SEE SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS START TO PICK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL START TO GUST TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. SEAS ALSO START TO INCREASE AS WE GET A STRONG PUSH FROM THE UPPER LOW AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST. WINDS START TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY BUT SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO COME DOWN AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN RAISED FOR THE AREA WATERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO, AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... A SURGE OF NELY WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS THAT WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FCST TO DIMINISH BY TUESDAY EVENING BUT THE SEAS WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TODAY AND THEN TURN MORE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FULL MOON AND ALREADY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING IN THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE MONDAY EVENING. ET-SURGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT TIDAL FLOODING COULD BRIEFLY REACH MODERATE LEVELS WHEREAS LOCALLY DEVELOPED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LEVELS SOMEWHAT BELOW MODERATE. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY RATHER THAN A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH OR WARNING FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER THIS SITUATION SHOULD BE MONITORED CAREFULLY FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADES. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ070-071. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012>014-020>027. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ016>019. DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002>004. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR DEZ001. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMC |
| #516003 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:29 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1225 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST...SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NOON UPDATE: WE AGAIN CUT BACK ON POPS ACROSS THE N HLF OF THE FA...WITH LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWING SCT LGT SHWR ACTIVITY MOVG WSW INTO E CNTRL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS FROM WRN NB. OVR THESE AREAS WE KEEP CHC POPS GOING FOR SCT SHWRS AND ONLY IN COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY ATTM KEEP MENTION OF NUMEROUS SHWRS. OTHERWISE...WE BEEFED UP WIND SPEEDS SOMEWHAT IN OUR FCST GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN OVR THE FA TO REFLECT OBS SHOWING MANY PLACES GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 MPH. LASTLY...WE LOWERED FCST AFTN HI TEMPS A FEW DEG TO REFLECT 15-16Z HRLY OBSVD SFC TEMPS WHICH HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE SINCE ERLY THIS MORN DUE TO THICK SC CLD CVR. 10 AM UPDATE: CONTD THE TREND OF CUTTING BACK POPS FASTER ACROSS SRN PTNS OF THE FA THIS MORN BASED ON FASTER SSW EXIT OF RADAR REFS FROM THE FA. KEPT CHC POPS ACROSS THE N FOR THIS AFTN... BUT IF SHWR DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN IS BASED ON DIURNAL HTG... WE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP POPS TO ISOLD OVR THIS PTN OF THE DAY... SINCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE IS XPCTD WITH THICK SC/AC OVC CONDITIONS. 6 AM UPDATE: CUT BACK ON RAIN A BIT AS AREA OF RAIN DOWNEAST HAS NUDGED JUST A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. STILL EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA LATER TODAY. ORGNL DISC: THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND A LARGE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A COOL NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE OVER THE AREA TODAY. RAIN LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PUSHES SOUTH. NORTHEAST AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...SOME MOISTURE BACKING IN FROM THE MARITIMES MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. TEMPS OVER THE AREA WILL AVERAGE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TONIGHT AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE A NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL BE CREATING SOME UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE PESKY UPPER LOW FINALLY DEPARTS THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY AND IS REPLACED BY WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE 00Z GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: UPDATE...MOST TAF SITES ARE NOW IN THE HI MVFR CAT AS OF MIDDAY...SO 18Z TAFS WILL LIKELY HAVE HI MVFR GOING TO VFR LATER THIS AFTN ACROSS THE N AND CONTD MVFR DOWNEAST SITES. ORGNL DISC...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DOWNEAST TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. SHORT TERM: OCNL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES DUE TO SHOWERS AND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 8 TO 10 FT EARLY TODAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS VEER MORE NORTHEASTERLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY WITH SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET. && .HYDROLOGY... NOON UPDATE: BASED ON THE LATEST RVR FCST FROM THE NERFC AND LATEST STAFF GAGE READINGS...IT APPEARS THAT THE PISCATAQUIS RVR AND ITS TRIBUTARIES HAVE PEAKED AND WILL REMAIN SIG BLO FLOOD STAGE...THEREFORE WE ARE CONFIDENT ATTM TO DROP THE REMAINING TM PTN OF THE FLOOD WATCH FOR WRN PTNS OF THE FA. FLOODING SHOULD NO LONGER BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS PAST RN EVENT. 10 AM UPDATE: WE ARE AWAITING THE NEXT RIVER FCST FOR PISCATAQUIS RVR POINT FCSTS FROM THE NERFC AT ARND 1130 EDT BEFORE CONFIDENTLY CANXNG THE REMAINING TM PTN OF FLOOD WATCH. RIGHT NOW...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOODING AT POINTS LIKE DOVER-FOXCROFT BASED ON THE LAST RVR STAGE FCST FROM NERFC...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SHARP RISES AT THESE POINTS LAST NGT INTO THIS MORN. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN |
| #516002 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:17 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1101 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION...MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION SECTION BELOW. AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR VSBYS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. DO EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CIGS/VSBYS RAPIDLY IMPROVE BY 16Z AS CU SCT OUT AND LIFTS TO VFR LEVELS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS AT MOST LOCATIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION NEAR KLRD LATE THIS EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS.WINDS RELAX THIS EVENING AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY 08Z TUESDAY...BRINGING ABOUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CONDITIONS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE VERY NEAR PERSISTENCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT FALL MUCH GIVEN LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD. THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN AGAIN TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUS...WILL GO WITH MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE THIS EVENING. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...YET CONVECTION MAY HOLD TOGETHER A BIT LONGER AND MOVE FURTHER EAST TONIGHT. GIVEN THE FORECAST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVERHEAD...WILL GO WITH STREAMER SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER VERY WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...PERIOD WILL START WITH WEAKNESS IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS PROG A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FIELDS SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH LATEST RUN OF THE GFS APPEARS TO THE BE OUTLIER ON A STRONGER CAP. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MAY MATERIALIZE AS WELL. CHALLENGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DETERMINING WESTWARD EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON PLACEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BELIEVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. STARTED TO TRIM BACK POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR NOW...WITH 20 TO 30S POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT. TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH MID/UPPER 90S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 90 ALONG THE COASTAL BEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 91 76 91 75 92 / 10 10 20 10 20 VICTORIA 93 74 92 74 93 / 10 10 20 20 20 LAREDO 101 78 101 76 98 / 10 10 10 10 20 ALICE 96 75 96 74 95 / 10 10 20 10 20 ROCKPORT 89 79 88 78 89 / 10 10 20 20 20 COTULLA 98 75 98 74 96 / 10 10 10 10 20 KINGSVILLE 95 76 94 75 94 / 10 10 20 10 20 NAVY CORPUS 90 79 89 77 89 / 10 10 20 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516001 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:39 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1131 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TODAY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... DOUBLE BARRELED UPPER LOW WAS PIVOTING OVER/INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH ONE LOBE COMBINING WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NW FROM A WEAK LOW OFF THE NJ COAST TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS IN NYC METRO NW INTO ORANGE COUNTY...AND THE SECOND LOBE ABOUT TO PIVOT S INTO CT. POP ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED COVERAGE/MOVEMENT OF THESE AREAS...WITH COVERAGE DROPPING TO SCATTERED IN NYC METRO THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INCREASING TO SCATTERED ELSEWHERE. POP MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON EVOLUTION. ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWNWARD A LITTLE BASED ON 13Z GFS LAMP GUIDANCE... WITH UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THE RULE...AND MOT MUCH HIGHER THAN CURRENT TEMPS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE TROUGH SHIFTING EVEN FARTHER SOUTH. EXPECT ISOLD/SCT SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS ERN CT/LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST BEGINS TO DEEPEN A LITTLE...AND AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN. FOR TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WITH THE COLD POOL STILL ALOFT AND THE MODELS SHOWING YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THE AREA...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AGAIN...WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES MORE TOWARDS THE WESTERN ZONES AS PER MODEL QPF OUTPUT AND SHORTWAVE POSITIONING. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH A LITTLE CAPE AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NAM AND MAV MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A BLEND USED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW AND RESULTANT OFFSHORE LOW ON VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING NE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THURSDAY THE RESULT WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGHING AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND SCT AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTMS DURING PEAK HEATING WED-THU. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATER ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH BETTER SURFACE INSTABILITY. ALSO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DECREASE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY DUE TO DECREASING COLD POOL INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. ISOLATED TO SCT SHRA ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON SHORTWAVE TIMING...PARTICULARLY TUES AND WED NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS ON FRI. THIS WILL LIMIT THE LAPSE RATES AND ALLOW FOR AN UPTICK IN TEMPS. PCPN COVERAGE LIMITED TO ISOLD. PEAK TIME AGAIN DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. H5 RIDGE AXIS ROTATES EWD INTO THE CWA FOR SAT PER THE GFS. ECMWF HOLDS BACK THE RIDGE. FCST KEPT DRY FOR NOW AS THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT...BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR ADJUSTMENT SHOULD THE PATTERN IN THE ECMWF VERIFY. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE FROM BELOW SEASONABLE TO ABOVE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DECREASING CLOUD/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EACH DAY AND RISING HEIGHTS. TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 17Z WITH SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF KBDR TO KISP. SOME SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY 3 TO 5 SM. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT AROUND THE 3 KFT LEVEL...AND MORE LIKELY JUST BELOW ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN AROUND 06Z TUE. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS RIGHT AROUND 3000 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS RIGHT AROUND 3000 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS RIGHT AROUND 3000 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS RIGHT AROUND 3000 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 3 KFT...BUT MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS LIKELY BELOW 3 KFT INTO THIS EVENING. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR...BUT BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...MAINLY IN THE AFT/EARLY EVE HOURS. .FRIDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FOR WINDS AND SEAS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST 5 FT SEAS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE SCA THERE MIGHT NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TUE EVENING. A FAVORABLE ENE TO NE WIND FLOW ELSEWHERE SHOULD ALLOW SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND SOUND. HAVE THEREFORE PUT A SCA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OCEAN SEAS SHOULD QUIET DOWN LATER TUE NIGHT. THEN SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH WEAK FLOW OVER THE WATERS. && .HYDROLOGY... SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS COULD DELIVER 1/2 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN... WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NYC METRO. WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN NOT EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI... WITH MAINLY SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY EXPECTED. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT HIGH TIDES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A MODERATE NE FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST. SIMILAR TIDAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TIDAL LEVELS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ009-010. NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ072-074-075-079>081-178-179. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-073-078-176-177. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ006. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350. && $$ |
| #515998 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:20 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1115 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. HOWEVER, THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1115 AM UPDATE...ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR OUR MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE ZONES. 955 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS...QPF...TEMPS...AND WINDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...ANOTHER RAINY DAY ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE AREA...ALBEIT NOT AS HARD AS YESTERDAY AND SATURDAY. 614 AM...I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON MESONET. PREV DISC... GOES WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE UPPER LOW CENTERED VICINITY OF THE MAINE MID COAST AS OF 06Z...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTERED WELL EAST OF BOSTON /KBOS/. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE BACK TO THE WEST AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WE`LL SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH ADDITIONAL QPF ON THE ORDER OF ONE-HALF INCH...WITH EMBEDDED BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN YIELDING AS MUCH AS AN ADDITIONAL INCH. BRISK ONSHORE WINDS WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 50`S OR A FULL TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT BUT A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG. BIG CONCERN WILL BE THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF COASTAL FLOODING. LITTLE CHANGE ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARBY...WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG. TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN TODAY...CLOSE TO 60F...BUT STILL CLOSE TO TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DATE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH FEWER SHOWERS AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND AND PRODUCING ONLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AS WELL WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STILL OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY THURSDAY. BY LATE IN THE WEEK SOME OF THE HIGHER HEIGHTS TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA AS LARGE THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN GRADUALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARKED DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION AND AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SPAGHETTI PLOT ENSEMBLES ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT EVEN AT THIS POINT...BUT THEY AGREE THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...PUSHING A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AS RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP FRIDAY EVENING...WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS A 90KT JET STREAK AND -18 DEGREES C COLD POOL MOVES BY OVERHEAD. MONDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET AT THIS POINT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MVFR WITH SCATTERED IFR AT TIMES IN DRIZZLE AND FOG. NE SFC WIND TODAY OVR ME AND ALONG THE COAST WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KT. LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...WINDS HAVE TRENDED DOWN AND THE GALE WAS REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE ONSHORE FLOW. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR FORECAST POINTS ALONG THE PRESUMPSCOT, ANDROSCOGGIN, SANDY, AND KENNEBEC RIVERS CONTINUE. FLW FOR WESTBROOK CONTINUES AS WELL. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN TODAY PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED AND WILL EITHER DELAY CRESTS...OR SLOW THE RECESSION SIDE OF THE HYDRO CURVE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...THE HIGHEST IN A CYCLE OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES /11.9 FEET MLLW AT 1143 PM/ WILL OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL FLOOD WARNING STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MEZ023>028. NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NHZ014. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ |
| #515997 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:15 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1008 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS RIDGING INTO SE TX THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WAS HELPING TO PROVIDE A DECENT CAP OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREAS AS SHOWN BY THE LCH 12Z SOUNDING. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN ON THE VISIBLE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AT 15Z WHERE THE STRATO CUMULUS FIELD WAS BEING CLEARED OUT. WITH THE CAP IN PLACE...DO NOT THINK ANY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT WILL PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. 40 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 97 72 95 71 93 / 10 10 20 20 40 HOUSTON (IAH) 95 74 94 73 92 / 10 10 20 20 40 GALVESTON (GLS) 90 78 88 79 86 / 10 10 20 30 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #515996 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1054 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2012 ...Severe storms possible over portions of the area this afternoon and evening... .UPDATE...The 12Z Regional Surface Analysis indicated a trough associated with a low pressure system extending through central GA and AL. An MCS currently over this region is expected to move rapidly southeast and approach southwest GA and southeastern AL by around noon. This morning`s POPs have been adjusted upwards to account for the arrival of these storms. The 12Z TLH sounding also indicated a strong subsidence inversion associated with a large amount of low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. With CAPE values upwards of 3300 J/kg storms and 50kt mid-level flow approaching the northern portions of the CWA in southern GA and AL this afternoon, storms have the potential to become severe with damaging wind gusts and possibly large hail. && .AVIATION (through 12z Tuesday)...VFR conditions are prevailing at all terminals this morning. DHN, ABY, and VLD have VCTS expected this afternoon around 21Z with approaching storms from the northwest. ABY and VLD may see brief period of MVFR associated with these storms with return to VFR by 00Z. The next concern will be the onset of fog by 08Z tomorrow morning dropping conditions to MVFR at all terminals except DHN which will remain VFR. && .MARINE...The gradient is expected to tighten over the waters this afternoon and tonight as a slow-moving front begins to approach from the north. May see some 15 knot winds this afternoon, with the potential for headline conditions overnight tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 96 72 93 73 89 / 10 30 70 50 60 Panama City 88 76 90 75 88 / 10 30 60 50 60 Dothan 95 73 93 73 91 / 40 40 60 40 60 Albany 93 72 91 71 91 / 50 40 60 40 50 Valdosta 93 71 90 71 89 / 40 30 70 40 60 Cross City 89 74 90 74 89 / 10 20 60 40 50 Apalachicola 89 76 89 75 86 / 0 20 60 40 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...None. FL...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 5 PM CDT this afternoon for Holmes- Inland Walton-Jackson. GM...None. && $$ |
| #515994 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1044 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...LIKELY LINGERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATE THIS MORNING...THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE APPROACHING REMNANT MCS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS JUST ABOUT TO ENTER THE FAR INLAND REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE APPROACHING REMNANT OF THE MCS IS JUST A LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG ITS FRONT EDGE. HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NEARLY CLEAR SKIES STILL IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE GA AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF SC...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16. WITH THE SURFACE HEATING TAKING PLACE IN THIS REGION TEMPS HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE LOW 80S...AND WILL LIKELY REACH AT LEAST THE MID 80S BEFORE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD TAKES OVER. THEREFORE...THE BEST SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE IN THIS AREA AND WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE INCOMING REMNANT MCS IS BEING DRIVEN BY A WELL DEFINED 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVING ESE AROUND THE CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AREA. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OF 500 MB AND 700 MB RAOB DATA SHOWS THE ANTICIPATED 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH IS RESULTING IN 35-45 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SO...FROM NOW THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THE AFOREMENTIONED PORTIONS OF SE GA AND SOUTHERN SC. THE OVERALL TIME WINDOW FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS BEGINNING TO CLOSE BUT WE STILL ANTICIPATE A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE ARE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...BUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE GOING FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO POP TRENDS. I DID COOL HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY AREA...IN RESPONSE TO THE IMPENDING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... ALL FORECAST PARAMETERS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TONIGHT AND WILL DEPEND GREATLY THE IMPACT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE CERTAINLY IN ORDER AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHEST POPS JUSTIFIED ACROSS THE SOUTH. HOWEVER... PRECIPITATION COVERAGE COULD REMAIN SPARSE IN THE WAKE OF ORGANIZED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...OR ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD AS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT LIES OVER/NEAR THE AREA AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE AREA. GENERALLY HAVE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 WHERE THE GREATEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN LIKELY COOLING OFF SLIGHTLY WED/THU. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LIKELY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY...PUSHING THE SURFACE FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT/SUN. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM KCHS AND INTO KSAV THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON COULD BECOME STRONG/SEVERE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING STRONG/SHIFTING WINDS AND IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT KSAV. OUTSIDE ANY THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. SMALL CHANCE OF PERIODIC SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THU AS THE FRONT LINGERS OVER/NEAR THE AREA. && .MARINE... OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS...W/SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE UP TO 20 KT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...THEN WILL VEER TOWARD THE NW AND WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM...BUT LOW PROBABILITY PRECLUDES AN SCA. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FT...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FURTHER...THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER LOCAL WINDS AT ANY TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME WIND/WAVE SURGES DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THROUGH MID WEEK...PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES COULD PRODUCE MINOR SALT WATER FLOODING DURING EACH EVENING HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 730 PM AND 930 PM ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #515993 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1041 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... NOTE...TECHNICIANS ARE ADJUSTING COMPONENTS ON KBYX RADAR. EXPECT INTERMITTENT PRODUCTS FROM THAT RADAR THIS MORNING. AVAILABLE RADAR IMAGES FROM KBYX AND OUR NEIGHBORS ON THE MAINLAND...KAMX...SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DRIFTING EASTWARD IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS. EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THICKER LAYERED CLOUDS ARE STAYING MOSTLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT BUT ARE ACQUIRING A SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT IN MOST LOCATIONS IN THE KEYS SERVICE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A RIDGE HAS BULGED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...THE AXIS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRAITS. A RECENTLY UPDATED ZONE FORECAST TOOK THIS INTO ACCOUNT...AND THE TRANSITIONAL DIRECTION TO THE WINDS ON THE EARLY MORNING ISSUANCE WAS REMOVED. BUT WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE. THE EARLY MORNING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWED A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS...BUT INSTABILITY WAS MORE ELEVATED THAN THE RECENT FEW DAYS. ALSO...THE WINDS ARE LIGHT THEY ARE TRANSITIONING TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO ABOVE 6000 FEET. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE RIGHT ON OUR DOORSTEP TO EVER SO SLOWLY NUDGE BACK NORTHWARD...AND MAY ALLOW A MORE PROMINENT CUMULUS LINE ALONG THE ISLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...THE ZONE FORECAST INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DURATION OF THE FIRST PERIOD. BUT WAS HESITANT TO GO MUCH ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE. && .MARINE... THE LATE MORNING COASTAL WATERS UPDATE REMOVED MUCH OF THE TRANSITIONAL WIND WORDING WITH REGARDS TO DIRECTION. ALSO...INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN...NAMELY ALONG THE REEF AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS THANKS TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED ON THE MORNING LOCAL SOUNDING. BUT KEPT THE EXPECTED COVERAGE AT ISOLATED. AWAY FROM THESE FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...RECREATIONAL BOATING WILL REMAIN PLEASANT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN ALL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THIS MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW AND MTH THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 6000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1933...THE LOW TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 69 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JUNE 4TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 79 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #515992 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1006 AM AST MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS...SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. RIDGE PATTERN WILL STRENGTHEN MID WEEK AND REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...12Z JSJ RAOB SHOWED A SLIGHT COOLING OF THE WARM NOSE/ELEVATED MIXED LAYER COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. THIS SUGGESTS MAXT TODAY A DEG OR TWO COOLER THAN PAST FEW DAYS BUT STILL HOT WITH TEMPS LIKELY NEAR 90 OR LOWER 90S INSTEAD OF MID 90S LIKE THEY WERE OVER THE WEEKEND. PRES GRADIENT IS ALSO WEAKER AND WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONGER SEA BREEZE AND NOT AS HOT NEAR THE WATER. WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP AND LESS WIND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A SMALL SHRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW TODAY BUT OVERALL RISK SEEMS PRETTY LOW AT 10% OR LESS. BUILDING MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PUT A STRONG LID ON CONVECTION AS H7 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 10C. STILL CHANCES OF RAIN THIS WEEK LOOK PRETTY DISMAL WITH CONTINUED HOT WEATHER. && .AVIATION...VSBYS ARE IMPROVING TO P6SM AS SAHARAN AIR LAYER CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. && .MARINE...SEAS 1-3 FT BUT INCREASING TO 4-5 FT MID WEEK AS WINDS STRENGTHEN. && .FIRE WEATHER...HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF IGNITION IN THE SOUTH COAST WHERE FUELS ARE READY FOR FIRE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 90 76 90 78 / 0 0 10 20 STT 88 79 87 79 / 0 0 0 30 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #515990 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1015 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS DAILY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THIS MRNG BEFORE MOVING GRADUALLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTN AND TNGT. PREV THOUGHT PROCESS HAS NOT CHGD. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WRN NY ERY THIS MRNG WILL DIVE SEWD THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC STATES TDA. SIMILAR TO YDA...POP-UP SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA DURING THE AFTN AND ERY EVE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. SHOWERS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP AS ERY AS THE LATE MRNG OVER NRN MD AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE POTOMAC DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING MID-LVL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY. RAP FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW EQUILIBRIUM LVLS BETWEEN -5C AND -15C LATE THIS AFTN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CAA AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN. TOOK A BLEND BETWEEN THE COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN NRN MD TO NEAR 80F IN CENTRAL VA. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TNGT. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVNGT FOR NRN MD. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... CLOSED UPR LOW OVER NERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THRU MID-WK...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN NLY-NWLY H5 FLOW OVER MID-ATLC RGN. SVRL SHRTWV TROFS WILL MOVE THRU THIS FLOW TUE AND WED...LEADING TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHWRS OWING TO STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES. INSTBY XPCD TO BE SHALLOW ON TUE...SO TSTMS NOT XPCD. SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHRTWV TROF ON WED WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCRD LOW-LVL MSTR AHD OF APRCHG CDFNT...WHICH MAY PROVIDE GREATER CHC FOR TSTMS. UNUSUALLY COOL MAXIMA IN THE LWR 70S XPCD TUE AND WED...WITH MINIMA IN THE LOW-MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPR RDG WILL AMPLIFY IN CNTRL CONUS LATE IN THE WK WHILE NERN CONUS UPR LOW SHIFTS EWD. SFC HIPRES WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLC RGN FRI AND SAT...EFFECTIVELY LMTG ANY PCPN CHCS. SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE ACRS SRN NY/CNTRL PA ON SUN. MSTR XPCD TO INCR AHD OF THIS WAVE AS SFC TROF CROSSES THE RGN. AS A RESULT... TSTMS MAY DVLP ALONG THIS BNDRY SUN EVE...WHICH WOULD MOVE SEWD INTO FCST AREA. ONLY CHG TO POPS IN EXTENDED WAS TO INCLUDE SLGT CHC TSTMS DURG SUN NGT PD. TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY LATE IN THE WK AS UPR RDG MOVES CLOSER. MAXIMA NR OR SLGTLY ABV NRML CAN BE XPCD DURG THE WKEND. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WLY WINDS THIS MRNG WILL VEER TO NWLY THIS AFTN AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THRU. BREEZY WINDS TDA WILL GUST 20-25 KT. SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA TO IMPACT BWI/MTN. CHANCES FOR TSRA ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. DAILY ROUNDS OF SHWRS CAN BE XPCD TUE AND WED. IT IS NOT PSBL ATTM TO IDENTIFY WHETHER THESE WOULD IMPACT ANY TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH CLDS XPCD TO PERSIST THRU AT LEAST WED NGT...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD RMN VFR. && .MARINE... SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES TDA...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT EXPECTED. WLY WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME...BECOMING NWLY BY THIS AFTN. DESPITE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A LOCALIZED 30 KT OR HIGHER WIND GUST TDA...ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE AFTN WHEN THE WIND FIELD IS THE STRONGEST. SMALL CRAFT ADZY WAS RETAINED THRU MID-DAY TUE OWING TO NLY CHANNELING PSBLTY. WIND WILL BCM LGT THEREAFTER. NO SGFNT MARINE HAZARDS XPCD THRU RMNDR OF WK OWING TO APRCHG SFC HIPRES. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CSTL FLOOD ADVYS HV EXPIRED...BUT ELEV WATER LVLS REMAIN. DEPARTURES ARND ONE-HALF FT-- NOT ENUF TO EXCEED THRESHOLDS FOR THE LWR SEMIDIURNAL TIDE OF THE DAY /WHICH IS IN THE PM/ BUT ENUF TO CAUSE CONCERNS FOR THE HIGHER MRNG TIDE. ADVYS MAY BE REQD AGAIN FOR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS...SPCLY IN THE SENSITIVE LOCATIONS SUCH AS ALEXANDRIA AND ANNAPOLIS. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537- 539>541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530- 535-536-538-542. && $$ SYNOPSIS... |
| #515989 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 912 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .UPDATE... MINOR UPDATES TO THE ZONES OTHERWISE ZONES LOOK FINE. LOOKING FOR DRY AND WARM TODAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEK. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... FOR THE 04/12Z TAF ISSUANCE. AVIATION... SOME SLIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 04/13Z AT KAEX/KLCH DUE TO PATCHY FOG/HAZE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS TO KEEP ANY SHOWERS FROM FORMING. RUA PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. SHORT TERM...EASTERN ZONES SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THAT DIRECTION PRODUCES INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO AND SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. LONG TERM...PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOK PROMISING BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE CONUS BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG INTO THE AREA AND STALL NEAR THE COAST. DID NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS THE GFS MEX GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PREFERRING THE MORE CONSERVATIVE EURO NUMBERS ON POPS. SOME MENTION OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THERE ARE NO SYSTEMS TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT OF THE COASTAL AREA SINCE THE UPPER TROF REMAINS A PLAYER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SWEENEY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 91 75 93 72 90 / 0 10 20 20 40 KBPT 91 75 92 72 89 / 0 10 20 20 40 KAEX 94 71 95 72 91 / 0 10 20 20 40 KLFT 92 72 93 72 91 / 0 10 20 20 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #515987 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1019 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 10 AM UPDATE: CONTD THE TREND OF CUTTING BACK POPS FASTER ACROSS SRN PTNS OF THE FA THIS MORN BASED ON FASTER SSW EXIT OF RADAR REFS FROM THE FA. KEPT CHC POPS ACROSS THE N FOR THIS AFTN... BUT IF SHWR DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN IS BASED ON DIURNAL HTG... WE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP POPS TO ISOLD OVR THIS PTN OF THE DAY... SINCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE IS XPCTD WITH THICK SC/AC OVC CONDITIONS. 6 AM UPDATE: CUT BACK ON RAIN A BIT AS AREA OF RAIN DOWNEAST HAS NUDGED JUST A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. STILL EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA LATER TODAY. ORGNL DISC: THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND A LARGE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A COOL NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE OVER THE AREA TODAY. RAIN LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PUSHES SOUTH. NORTHEAST AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...SOME MOISTURE BACKING IN FROM THE MARITIMES MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. TEMPS OVER THE AREA WILL AVERAGE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TONIGHT AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE A NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL BE CREATING SOME UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE PESKY UPPER LOW FINALLY DEPARTS THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY AND IS REPLACED BY WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE 00Z GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DOWNEAST TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. SHORT TERM: OCNL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES DUE TO SHOWERS AND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 8 TO 10 FT EARLY TODAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS VEER MORE NORTHEASTERLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY WITH SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET. && .HYDROLOGY... UPDATE: WE ARE AWAITING THE NEXT RIVER FCST FOR PISCATAQUIS RVR POINT FCSTS FROM THE NERFC AT ARND 1130 EDT BEFORE CONFIDENTLY CANXNG THE REMAINING TM PTN OF FLOOD WATCH. RIGHT NOW...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOODING AT POINTS LIKE DOVER-FOXCROFT BASED ON THE LAST RVR STAGE FCST FROM NERFC...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SHARP RISES AT THESE POINTS LAST NGT INTO THIS MORN. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ004-010-015- 016-029-031. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN |
| #515988 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1000 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. HOWEVER, THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 955 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS...QPF...TEMPS...AND WINDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...ANOTHER RAINY DAY ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE AREA...ALBEIT NOT AS HARD AS YESTERDAY AND SATURDAY. 614 AM...I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON MESONET. PREV DISC... GOES WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE UPPER LOW CENTERED VICINITY OF THE MAINE MID COAST AS OF 06Z...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTERED WELL EAST OF BOSTON /KBOS/. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE BACK TO THE WEST AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WE`LL SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH ADDITIONAL QPF ON THE ORDER OF ONE-HALF INCH...WITH EMBEDDED BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN YIELDING AS MUCH AS AN ADDITIONAL INCH. BRISK ONSHORE WINDS WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 50`S OR A FULL TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT BUT A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG. BIG CONCERN WILL BE THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF COASTAL FLOODING. LITTLE CHANGE ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARBY...WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG. TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN TODAY...CLOSE TO 60F...BUT STILL CLOSE TO TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DATE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH FEWER SHOWERS AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND AND PRODUCING ONLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AS WELL WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STILL OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY THURSDAY. BY LATE IN THE WEEK SOME OF THE HIGHER HEIGHTS TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA AS LARGE THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN GRADUALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARKED DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION AND AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SPAGHETTI PLOT ENSEMBLES ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT EVEN AT THIS POINT...BUT THEY AGREE THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...PUSHING A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AS RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP FRIDAY EVENING...WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS A 90KT JET STREAK AND -18 DEGREES C COLD POOL MOVES BY OVERHEAD. MONDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET AT THIS POINT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MVFR WITH SCATTERED IFR AT TIMES IN DRIZZLE AND FOG. NE SFC WIND TODAY OVR ME AND ALONG THE COAST WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KT. LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...WINDS HAVE TRENDED DOWN AND THE GALE WAS REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE ONSHORE FLOW. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR FORECAST POINTS ALONG THE PRESUMPSCOT, ANDROSCOGGIN, SANDY, AND KENNEBEC RIVERS CONTINUE. FLW FOR WESTBROOK CONTINUES AS WELL. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN TODAY PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED AND WILL EITHER DELAY CRESTS...OR SLOW THE RECESSION SIDE OF THE HYDRO CURVE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT. TONIGHT...THE HIGHEST IN A CYCLE OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES /11.9 FEET MLLW AT 1143 PM/ WILL OCCUR AND WITH A WEAKER BUT STILL NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLOODING ALONG THE COAST AT HIGH TIDE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MEZ023>028. NH...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NHZ014. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ |
| #515986 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1010 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .UPDATE... AS OF 14Z TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN AT THIS POINT YESTERDAY. 12Z MFL SOUNDING DEPICTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 19C WITH VERY UNSTABLE MID LEVELS. LEFT ONGOING POPS ALONE AS ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE BUT WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS THEY ARE...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IF A PRONOUNCED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CAN DEVELOP. STORMS SHOULD OCCUR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR BEGINS TO INCREASE HELPING TO CREATE A STRONG CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ACROSS COASTAL PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES AS WELL AS JUST OFFSHORE. SEE LATEST HWO FOR MAIN THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012/ AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL PROVIDE A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY STAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, SO FOR NOW KEPT WINDS WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SE WIND DEVELOPS AFTER 4 PM. WILL RE-ASSESS THIS WITH THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST COAST SO MAINTAINED VCTS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION...THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, A TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A WESTERLY FLOW TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT, A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVE LATER TODAY. AT LEAST A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z/19Z, MAINLY DUE TO SOME MODEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE QUITE WARM TODAY ON THE WESTERLY FLOW, AND WE GENERALLY WENT 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS ALONG THE EAST COAST, WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY TO REACH 90-93F. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND THEN INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN GREATEST IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE FORCED SOUTH BY TUESDAY EVENING AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ADVANCES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE MORE ACTIVE AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS FURTHER INCREASE AND WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THERE REMAINS SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED. THE STRENGTH AND ULTIMATE PATH OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL GULF, ALONG WITH THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS FED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. REGARDLESS, AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS LIKELY WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MID-UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXIMA AND THE EXTENT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY, A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG DURING THIS PERIOD. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE TOO STRONG AND DEEP TO ALLOW FOR ROBUST EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY (OR ITS REMNANTS) SLUGGISHLY PUSHING SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL STAY NORTH, ALONG THE FRONT, AND ALSO OVER THE GULF. AS THE BOUNDARY DISINTEGRATES AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS AND BECOMES MORE EASTERLY, SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY. AVIATION...06Z ISSUANCE...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE KEYS TODAY...WITH STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. ONLY THE LOCAL WRF IS SHOWING ANY TYPE OF SEA BREEZE TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND IT IS ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 16 AND 19Z BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WITH SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SEA BREEZE LASTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ATTM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP THE PREVIOUS MENTION IN THE TAF FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 5-10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SEAS MAINLY 4 FEET OR LESS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. AS THE FRONT STALLS AND THEN WEAKENS LATE IN THE WEEK, WINDS MAY SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 91 75 92 74 / 20 20 40 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 92 77 92 77 / 20 20 40 20 MIAMI 93 76 92 77 / 20 20 40 20 NAPLES 88 74 86 76 / 10 10 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #515984 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 1023 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED SOUTH OF THE STATE THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH STRETCHING FROM THE CAROLINAS WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS LEAVES THE FORECAST AREA IN A WESTERLY FLOW REGIME...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE AS SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. KTBW 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...SO RAIN FREE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE INCREASING WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT BEACHES FROM PINELLAS COUNTY NORTHWARD...SO HAVE ISSUED A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST...UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 78 90 76 / 0 10 20 20 FMY 92 76 90 74 / 0 10 20 20 GIF 93 74 92 74 / 0 10 20 20 SRQ 89 77 89 75 / 0 10 20 20 BKV 92 72 92 72 / 0 10 20 20 SPG 89 79 88 78 / 0 10 20 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-LEVY-PASCO-PINELLAS. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #515985 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1008 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 ...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND AREA-WIDE ON TUESDAY... .UPDATE... MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BELIE WHAT`S IN STORE FOR LATER TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS MCS DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH...AND CROSSING OVER CENTRAL AL/GA THIS MORNING. LOCALLY...WEST WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AND HAVE BECOME BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH NEAR THE COAST. KJAX 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS TEMPERATURES 3-5 DEG WARMER IN LOWER LEVELS (1000-700 MB) AND 1-3 DEG COOLER IN MID LEVELS (700-500 MB). TEMPS RISING INTO UPR 80S AND LOW 90S WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. LATEST MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FROM SPC INDICATES A SVR STORM WATCH IS LIKELY FOR SE GA AND FL NORTH OF I-10. SEVERE WEATHER BRIEFING IS ON OUR WEB SITE THIS MORNING. STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING. && .AVIATION... VFR CONTINUES INTO MID AFTERNOON ALTHO CONDS MAY DETERIORATE SOONER AT SSI WHERE VCTS IS IN FORECAST AFTER 17Z. HAVE TS ENDING AT TERMINALS BTWN 01Z AND 03Z. && .MARINE... WEST WINDS ARE AROUND 15 KT AT THE BUOYS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20KT AT 41008. SEAS ARE RUNNING 2-3 FT. SCEC HEADLINE IS IN PLACE FOR REST OF TODAY OVER OUTER WATERS AND WILL KEEP WINDS AT 15 KT NEARSHORE. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING WINDS PROMPTING A SMALL CRAFT ADV BEYOND 20NM. RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK DUE TO WINDS BLOWING OFFSHORE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 70 90 68 / 70 40 70 70 SSI 91 73 87 73 / 60 50 70 60 JAX 94 72 91 71 / 40 40 60 70 SGJ 93 74 90 73 / 10 20 50 50 GNV 94 73 92 72 / 10 10 50 40 OCF 94 73 92 72 / 0 10 40 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ |
| #515982 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:00 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 952 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES...AS A DEVELOPING NOR EASTER BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND INTENSIFIES EAST OF CAPE COD. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY MID TO LATE WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 10 AM UPDATE... CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE. COMMA HEAD/TROWAL RAINS CONTINUE TO PIVOT SOUTH ACROSS SNE AS WARM CONVEYOR BELT WRAPS AROUND MID LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVSY FOR E COAST MA. WINDS WILL PROBABLY FALL JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA BURT GIVEN ITS JUNE WITH FULL FOLIAGE ON THE TREES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME BRANCHES/LIMBS DOWN. UNSEASONABLY COOL AND RAW DAY WITH MINIMAL TEMP RECOVERY EXPECTED...MORE LIKE APRIL THAN EARLY JUNE. TEMPS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WHILE AFTN ASTRO TIDES ARE LOWER /10.6 FT FOR BOSTON/...CONSIDERING A 1.3 FT SURGE WHICH OCCURRED THE NIGHT PRIOR AND CONTINUED STRONG NELY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG ERN SHORELINES OF MA THIS AFTN. COASTAL FLOOD ADV WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MIDDAY PD. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... SYNOPTIC SITUATION... SFC LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK GRADUALLY SLINKING SEWD FURTHER AWAY FROM SHORE...PUSHED MORESO BY HIGH PRES BUILDING S OUT OF CANADA AND ROUNDING THE STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN /NEGATIVE NAO/ ACROSS THE N ATLANTIC. A TROWAL/DEFORMATION AXIS COLLOCATED WITH THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND STRATIFORM RAINS /EASILY DISCERNABLE PRESENTLY IN THE WV IMAGERY/ SWEEPS S ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY... COLLOCATED WITH AN AXIS OF STRONG NELY BOUNDARY LYR FLOW OF 30 TO 35 MPH. WINDS SHOULD RELAX INTO MONDAY NIGHT YET CONTINUALLY DRAW COOLER AIR SWD. THE NEARLY STACKED LOW PRES DOES NOT WOBBLE FAR INTO THE MIDWEEK PD...ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND A CONTINUED COOL MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE RGN LIKELY RESULTING IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN WX FOR TUESDAY. TONIGHT... AS THE SFC LOW PIVOTS SEWD...THE BETTER TROWAL/DEFORMATION AXIS PRESSES OFFSHORE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINS TO DIMINISH. BUT DURING THE INITIAL PD THE STRONGEST OF LOW-LVL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED WITH A NELY 35 KT LLJ /H925/ PERSISTING ACROSS THE ERN SHORES AND THE CAPE AS LATE AS EARLY MORNING HRS. ONCE AGAIN...THE WRF-NMM MDL FCST IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH 40-45 KTS AT H925. WIND ADV WILL CONTINUE INTO 6Z ACCORDINGLY. IN ADDITION...ASTRO TIDES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ONE TO TWO TENTHS HIGHER...AND WITH THE LONG PREVAILING NELY FLOW /THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL CENTER AROUND DUSK WITH H925 FLOW...2-3 KFT AGL...AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH/ SWELL AND HIGH SURF WILL BE BUILT UP ALONG THE ERN SHORES OF MA. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE AS LIKELY A SIMILAR IF NOT GREATER IMPACT ALONG SHORELINE COMMUNITIES WILL BE OBSERVED AS WAS THE CASE SUNDAY NIGHT /SEE LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORT FOR LAST NIGHTS COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS/. TUESDAY... MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL SE OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND STRONGER LOW-LVL FLOW. YET NEVERTHELESS A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL. A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND THE STRONG ANGLE OF THE SUN SHOULD PROMOTE LOW-LVL MIXING AND DIURNAL INVIGORATION OF SCTD SHOWERS AND PSBL THUNDERSTORMS /ALBEIT INSTABILITY IS WEAK/. CHC POPS WARRANTED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THU * COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING LATE WEEK * PATTERN CHANGE POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK MODEL PREFERENCES... 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS NA THIS PERIOD...WHICH FEATURES A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED OCEAN CYCLONE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AT 00Z WED...THEN SLOWLY DRIFTING SEAWARD TO NEWFOUNDLAND BY FRI. BY LATE FRI INTO SAT MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER THE 12Z ECENS AND THE 00Z UKMET LEND SOME SUPPORT TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI INTO SAT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS CHANCE POPS SO WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. CPC ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CURRENT HIGHLY ANOMALOUS NEGATIVE NAO /INDEX -2/ BEGINS TO TREND TOWARD ZERO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUGGEST A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REDEVELOPING FROM THE MID ATLC INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD FAVOR A TREND TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER INTO NEW ENGLAND. STAY TUNED! SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS... TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCEAN STORM SLOWLY DRIFT INTO ATLC CANADA. THUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT/COMMA HEAD RAINS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. THEREFORE NOT AS WET OR COOL AS MON AND TUE. HOWEVER GIVEN CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD POOL ALOFT SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE. SO BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT. THURSDAY... ALL MODEL GUID SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN...PROMOTING BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. BUT CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ALONG WITH COLD POOL ALOFT. SO MORE OF THE SAME...SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS. MARITIME AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO MODIFY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFT TO THE SSW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPS GIVEN STRONG JUNE SUN. THIS SOLAR HEATING WILL ALSO RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND -18C TO -20C! THUS LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WITH A LOW PROB OF SMALL HAIL. FRIDAY/SAT... AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOME TIMING AND MAGNITUDE DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND PRESERVE CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONCE AGAIN NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT. SUNDAY... ABOVE AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT ON MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND BEING REPLACED BY HEIGHT RISES AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REDEVELOPS FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER. GIVEN THE WARMING TEMPS ALOFT FELT CONFIDENT TO LEAVE FORECAST DRY. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT 7 AM UPDATE... OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENCE PROBABLY THE BEST FORECAST WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY. THEREFORE IFR CIGS WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN A GOOD BET ACROSS EASTERN MA WITH MVFR LIKELY ELSEWHERE IN MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS. NNE WINDS UP TO 35 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CAPE COD/NANTUCKET AND POSSIBLY INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TUE...LIKELY INVIGORATING RENEWED WIDESPREAD SHOWERY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS...DISSIPATING TOWARDS EVNG. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MARGINAL MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS. GUSTY N WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS OF 20-30 KT. GUSTS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THE EVNG PD. INTERMITTENT VSBY IMPACTS DUE TO -RA EXPECTED...YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR IN SHOWERS. MODEST NLY FLOW THRU THE DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS LIKELY LINGERING INTO THE EVNG PD. INTERMITTENT VSBY IMPACTS DUE TO -RA EXPECTED...YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... TUE NIGHT/WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN. WINDS SLACKEN AND BECOME LGT/VRB. CIGS MAY LIFT TO VFR DURING WED AFTN. THU/FRI...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR VFR. LOW RISK OF AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. && .MARINE... EASTERN COASTAL WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE INCREASING NELY FLOW INTO THIS EVNG WITH GALE FORCE WINDS /GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE PSBL OVER STELLWAGEN BANK/. SEAS INCREASING 10-12 FT ALONG THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SEAS AROUND 8 FT OUTSIDE THE INNER HARBORS AND BAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THRU THE EVNG PD INTO TUESDAY. LIKELY VSBY IMPACTS. SOUTHERN WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE GALES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR NANTUCKET BAY AND FOR THE OUTER WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO THE EVNG PD. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT ADV IN EFFECT FOR WINDS AROUND 25 KTS BUT REMAINING BELOW GALE FORCE. SEAS OF 6-8 FT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE S OUTER WATERS /BUILDING LESSER SO DUE TO TERRAIN SHIELDING THE WATERS FROM FASTER NELY FLOW/. WIDESPREAD RAIN ANTICIPATED AND LIKELY LEADING TO VSBY IMPACTS. OUTLOOK...TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI... TUE NGT/WED... GALE CENTER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SEAWARD AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. WINDS SLACKEN BUT NE SWELLS PERSIST. VSBY MAY BE POOR IN MORNING FOG AND DRIZZLE. THU/FRI... WEAK HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND IMPROVING VSBY. LIGHT WINDS BUT NE SWELLS MAY LINGER. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... * COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AROUND NOON ALONG THE EAST COAST * COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST AROUND NOON... GALES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE ERN WATERS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PRES CENTER NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WHILE MIDDAY TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER ALONG THE E SHORE /10.6 FT AT BOSTON HARBOR/ THE PERSISTENT NELY FLOW WILL LIKELY LEND TO HIGH SURF AND SURGE /LAST EVNGS SURGE WAS 1.3 FT/. THAT BEING THE CASE...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SPLASHOVER AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE ERN SHORELINES OF MA AND THUS A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT. TONIGHT... WITH CONTINUING TRENDS OF STRONG NELY FLOW /THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL CENTER AROUND DUSK WITH ONSHORE GALE FORCE WINDS/... HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES /12.3 FT AT BOSTON HARBOR/ AND AN ANTICIPATED SURGE OF 1.4 FT...AND CONSIDERING LOCAL STORM REPORTS GATHERED ALONG THE E SHORELINE LAST NIGHT...COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE AS LIKELY SIMILAR IF NOT GREATER IMPACTS ALONG ERN SHORELINE COMMUNITIES ARE ANTICIPATED. HIGH SURF IS ALSO EXPECTED WHICH WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. PLEASE MONITOR ANY UPDATED FORECASTS FOR NEW INFORMATION TOWARD THIS THREAT. TUE NIGHT... MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY AGAIN TUE NIGHT WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. WHILE THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER E WITH TIME...CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THREAT. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007. WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ019. WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ022-024. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-233>235- 237-256. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ236. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251. GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254-255. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL |
| #515980 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:00 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 933 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING THEN SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN LATE THURSDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...STRONG SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TAKING CONVECTION WITH IT. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE IS NOW DIVING ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA AND THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. THE 4 KM SPC WRF INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN CORRIDOR. DESPITE LOTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO THE 80S OVER MOST AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL DROP S OF THE REGION TONIGHT. CONT ISOLD POP SRN TIER EARLY WITH FROPA THEN MAINLY DRY. MDLS DO SHOW STRONGER SRT WAVE APPROACHING LATE NRN TIER SO CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD SHRA DEVELOPING THESE AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK. WITH CAA DEVELOPING LOW WILL RANGE FROM UPR 50S NW TIER TO MID/UPR 60S SRN BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 AM MON...AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND LONG WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE REGION. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS WELL BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEARLY EVERY DAY. GENERALLY FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SHORT WAVES ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN NOT VERY HIGH IN ANY ONE OPERATIONAL MODEL. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WED WITH AN EVEN STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE THU AND WILL KEEP CHC POPS THESE PERIODS. WITH EACH SHORTWAVE MODELS DEVELOP LOW PRES ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WHICH EJECTS EWD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. JUST HOW CLOSE TO THE REGION AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS THESE LOW PRES AREA WILL HAVE ON THE REGION REMAINS UNCERTAIN. UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE LATE THU SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL BRING A DRIER PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK EXPECTED TO REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THEN WARM TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS RISE. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 645 AM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP S INTO THE NRN TIER LATE TODAY THEN MOVE S THROUGH THE REGION DURING EARLY EVENING. MAY SEE SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP WITH THIS BNDRY BUT CVRG TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WILL HAVE GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TODAY BUT MAINLY MID TO HIGH VARIETY. WINDS WILL BECOME N/NE BEHIND FRONT AND LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO AGAIN LIMIT FOG THREAT TONIGHT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 AM MON...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM BRINGING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOK LIKE WED THROUGH EARLY FRI WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AT THE TERMINALS BUT NOT EXPECTED PROLONGED WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR STRENGTH OF IMPULSES REMAINS BELOW NORMAL. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. WINDS ARE MORE W THAN NW AND HAVE UPDATED THE DIRECTION. WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXCEPT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THE SOUNDS. SEAS CONTINUE IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE WITH LONG PERIOD 13 TO 15 SECOND SWELLS CONTINUING. WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY LATER TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NW BY EVENING THEN NE BY EARLY TUESDAY. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 AM MON...A COLD FRONT WILL STALL S OF THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE REGION. A NELY SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUE AT AROUND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO 3-5 FT ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS TUE AND CONTINUING INTO WED. WINDS BECOME ELY MAINLY BLO 15 KT WED AND THU...THEN PROGGED TO SHIFT BACK TO NELY THU NIGHT AND FRI AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THINK THE LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE LIMITING IMPACT TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND BOTH WAVEWATCH AND SWAN KEEP SEAS AOB 5 FT SO NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #515979 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:00 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 955 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND BRING MORE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NEW YORK FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS NEW YORK AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND, A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND SPARK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVE ROTATES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AND THEN CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AROUND AND COOLER AIR BEING DRAWN DOWN WITH THE LOW, WE SHOULD SEE A WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 60S ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION, WITH SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA /MAINLY LOWER 70S/. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME GUSTS UP AROUND 20 MPH OR SO. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... AS THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT, A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SECOND WAVE IS CERTAINLY NOT AS ROBUST AND WILL ONLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO AREA. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE CHILLIER SIDE AS WE DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REMAINING 2/3RDS OF OUR AREA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FCST PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED OVERALL BY A GRADUAL SHIFT FROM AN UPPER LOW DOMINATING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND. THE SFC PATN IS RATHER NON-DESCRIPT WITH GENLY WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA DURG THE WEEK BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OFF- SHORE ON THE WEEKEND. THUS THE WEATHER WILL TEND TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH SCT SHOWERS LIKELY DEVLOPING EACH DAY TUE- THU DURG THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVE. INSTBY LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL BUT AN ISOLD T-STORM SHOULD NOT BE RULED OUT ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE SMWHAT BELOW NORMAL BUT WITH A MODERATING TREND BACK TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES NOW SEEM A BIT LESS FOR FRIDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC. THIS IS INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE WARMING TREND SHOULD CONT INTO THE WEEKEND AS WARMER 850MB TEMPS ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA TODAY. WE HAVE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE TAFS BUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION, WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION THUNDER THIS FAR OUT. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR, THEY MAY DETERIORATE TO MVFR, AND POSSIBLY IFR, IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY EARLY THIS MORNING, BECOMING NORTHEAST AND GUSTY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. SOME ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TAFS AT PHL, PNE, TTN AND ILG TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH, AND THE RESULTANT LOWER CEILING HEIGHTS. THESE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE IN THE TEMPO GROUP OF THE TAFS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A T-STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR CONDS WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A T-STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR CONDS WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST EARLY TODAY AND THEN SHIFT AROUND THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EASTWARDS. MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL SEE SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS START TO PICK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL START TO GUST TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. SEAS ALSO START TO INCREASE AS WE GET A STRONG PUSH FROM THE UPPER LOW AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST. WINDS START TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY BUT SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO COME DOWN AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN RAISED FOR THE AREA WATERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO, AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... A SURGE OF NELY WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS THAT WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FCST TO DIMINISH BY TUESDAY EVENING BUT THE SEAS WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TODAY AND THEN TURN MORE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FULL MOON AND ALREADY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING IN THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE MONDAY EVENING. ET-SURGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT TIDAL FLOODING COULD BRIEFLY REACH MODERATE LEVELS WHEREAS LOCALLY DEVELOPED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LEVELS SOMEWHAT BELOW MODERATE. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY RATHER THAN A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH OR WARNING FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER THIS SITUATION SHOULD BE MONITORED CAREFULLY FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADES. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ070-071. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012>014-020>027. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ016>019. DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002>004. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR DEZ001. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMC |
| #515977 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:59 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 400 AM HST MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE MAINLY AROUND THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE STATE FROM THIS MORNING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. && .DISCUSSION... OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REPORTED MODERATE TRADE WINDS BLOWING...WHILE PRESSURE TRENDS SUGGESTED LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE SHORT RUN. THE INVERSION WAS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF AVERAGE...AND THE AIR MASS HAD MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. PRECIPITATION REMAINED SPARSE FOR NOW...BUT FURTHER CHANGE APPROACHED FROM THE EAST IN THE FORM OF A MID-LEVEL LOW. GUIDANCE HAS ARRIVED AT A CONSENSUS ON THIS FEATURE...PREDICTING A FAIRLY STEADY PASSAGE OVER THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM A DYNAMIC POINT OF VIEW...THE TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW IS SUPPORTING ENHANCED WINDS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS... REQUIRING A WIND ADVISORY OVER THE BIG ISLAND...AND A HIGH WIND WARNING OVER HALEAKALA. HOWEVER...THE EXPOSURE OF ANY GIVEN PEAK WILL VARY OVER TIME AS THE LOW MOVES. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION... THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...AS WELL AS ITS VORTICITY ADVECTION...WILL SUPPORT ENHANCED UPLIFT. SOLUTIONS EXPECTED THE LOW TO CONVERGE A SOLID SLUG OF MOISTURE...AND OBSERVATIONS BEAR OUT ITS APPROACH FROM SEA LEVEL TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THUS...THE WET FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE STATE...AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE BIG ISLAND. THE SITUATION ON THE SUMMITS WILL REQUIRE SPECIAL ATTENTION. IF ENOUGH OF THE CONVERGED MOISTURE REACHES HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN NON-TRIVIAL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION MAY FALL. WITH THE COLD POOL CLOSE...THIS PRECIPITATION LIKELY WILL BE FROZEN OR FREEZING. ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS COULD VARY SIGNIFICANTLY BY SCENARIO...BUT GUIDANCE STILL LEANS AWAY FROM MORE RADICAL OUTCOMES...PREDICTING MOST DEEP CONVECTION TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE STATE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER HAS BEEN INTRODUCED EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE REMAINING SCENARIOS OVER THE SUMMITS ARE LIMITED MAINLY TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT STRATUS SNOW...THOUGH IN COMBINATION WITH THE WINDS SUCH CONDITIONS STILL COULD END UP REQUIRING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD RETAIN ENOUGH STRENGTH TO KEEP THE TRADES BLOWING WITH LITTLE DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEK... THOUGH WIND DIRECTION MAY BECOME A LITTLE CLOSER TO PURELY EASTERLY THAN IS USUAL. THE INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL TEND TO ENHANCE TRADE SHOWERS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARD MORE TYPICAL AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES AWAY...AND RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...LINGERING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT LIKELY WILL KEEP TRADE SHOWERS AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THAN USUAL AS LATE AS THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADE WINDS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDIER CHANNELS AND WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR HALEAKALA SUMMIT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL- KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS. && $$ |
| #515976 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:26 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDMLB EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 915 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH A RATHER STOUT WLY FLOW IN PLACE UP THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. MORNING BALLOON DATA SHOWS AN INCREASE IN PWAT MAINLY ABV H7 OVER THE PAST 24H WITH NO SIG CHANGE IN TEMP PROFILES. LTST GUID IN LIEU OF WIND PROFILE DOES NOT SUGGEST AN EAST COAST BREEZE BOUNDARY WITH ABILITY TO MOVE INLAND. THERE MAY BE A Q/S BOUNDARY OVER THE TREASURE COAST BY LATE AFTN BUT COUNTERING WINDS SHOULD NOT ALLOW FOR INLAND PROGRESSION. WITH ABSENCE OF THE ECSB FOR FORCING MECHANISM CURRENT CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT SUPPORT MENTIONABLE PRECIP FOR TODAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF SUN FROM PARTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION...VFR WITH NO CIGS FORECAST. && .MARINE...(MODIFIED PERV DISC) WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE EVENING. WINDS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT SO WILL GO WITH AN ADVISORY FOR WINDS IN THE NORTH OFFSHORE ZONE. SEAS SLOWER TO RESPOND DUE TO OFFSHORE NATURE OF THE WINDS BUT THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE AND IN THE GULF STREAM. && .FIRE WEATHER... LL DEWPOINTS WL SLOWLY INCREASE LATER TODAY AND INTO TUE. RH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE STILL POSSIBLE INCLUDING THE COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER RH COMBINED WITH WIND AND HIGHER TEMP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACTIVE FIRE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. CRITICAL RH/WIND CONDITIONS WILL NOT REQUIRE HEADLINE ATTM HOWEVER. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ |
| #515975 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:21 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 813 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .UPDATE... ...SOUNDING DISCUSSION... NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. THE SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW...AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW MORNINGS...A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE INTO THE MID 70S IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING WITH LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. PW VALUES ARE NEAR 1.2 INCHES AGAIN WITH A LARGE INVERSION IN PLACE AROUND 2500 FEET AND EXTENDING UPWARDS QUITE A BIT. THIS...ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE...WILL DETER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TODAY. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT THE SURFACE AND OUT OF THE WEST ALOFT. 98/SO && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWESTWARD TO A LOW IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING OVER THE GULF WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TRIGGERING THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH. A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SHORT TERM... SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...CURRENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EFFECTIVELY BECOMES A COLD FRONT AND NEARS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH INHERITED FORECAST. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. 35 LONG TERM... EASTERN UPPER TROF KEEPS GENERAL UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO WEDNESDAY. TROF EVENTUALLY SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WITH TEMPORARY RIDGING ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY DURING THE EXTENDED. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN UPPER WEAKNESS/LOW OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GFS HAS BEEN HIGHLY INCONSISTENT WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHILE ECMWF HAS HAD A BETTER LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY. WILL TREND TOWARD WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION...AND WE MAY NEED TO RAISE RAIN CHANCES FROM CURRENT FORECAST LEVELS IF THAT SOLUTION REMAINS THE PREFERRED ONE. 35 AVIATION... PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD....AROUND 10-12Z ON TUESDAY. KMCB AND KHUM WILL BE MOST PRONE TO ANY FOG FORMATION...AS A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. FORTUNATELY...ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE. 32 MARINE... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE A COASTAL JET DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUNDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. FOR A FEW HOURS EACH NIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS...AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 3 FEET. THIS PHENOMENON WILL DISSIPATE BY DAYBREAK...WITH A MORE GENERAL 10 TO 15 KNOT WIND EXPECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS IMPACTED BY THIS NOCTURNAL COASTAL JET...WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST COMPONENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND STALLS. HOWEVER...WITH A LACK OF STRONG COLD OR DRY AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 2 FEET. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD PUSH SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS BY SATURDAY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET. 32 DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...GREEN. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...NONE. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 91 70 90 70 / 10 10 30 30 BTR 92 73 92 74 / 10 10 20 30 ASD 91 72 92 75 / 10 10 20 30 MSY 90 75 90 76 / 10 10 20 30 GPT 90 76 91 76 / 10 10 20 30 PQL 90 72 91 73 / 10 10 20 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #515974 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:05 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 859 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR TO FILTER SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR VOID OF ANY ECHOES ATTM...SO HAVE DROPPED POPS ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOUR. SAT LOOP/SFC OBS SHOWING WIDESPREAD HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS CLOUD DECK TO SCT OUT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CU DEVELOPMENT. NEXT TROF APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...BOTH FROM CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MTS AND MOVES SE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY AS WELL AS ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE AND NORTHERN NECK AREAS. SAID ACTIVITY PROGGED BY RUC/WRF AND HRRR TO DRIFT S AND E ACROSS THE REST OF VA AFTER 18Z. THUS...HAVE ADDED ISOLATED POPS TO GRIDS FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT NC COUNTIES DRY FOR NOW AS ANY CONVECTION THAT REACHES THAT FAR SOUTH MAY NOT GET THERE UNTIL AFTER 5 OR 6 PM. HIGHS 75-80 EASTERN SHORE AREAS...U70S-L80S WEST OF CHES BAY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD AIR DAMMING OVER THE PIEDMONT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND A STABILIZING OF THE LOWER LAYERS. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE AND EARLIER FORECASTS AS A RESULT. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LIFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PRODUCE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTN AND HAVE 30 POPS AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES AT 850 WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER BY TUESDAY MORNING AND FOR REASONS MENTIONED EARLIER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 60S ON THE EASTERN SHORE TO THE LOWER 70S OVER INLAND AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR BUT PROBABLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RUN IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT AS PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MOST NOTABLE IS THE AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST (JUST AHEAD OF THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH) ON THURSDAY. AS A COMPARISON...THE 12Z GFS MODEL RUN YESTERDAY HAD THE LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE AKQ CWA ON WEDNESDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAD ROUGHLY THE SAME SOLUTION OCCURRING BUT ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE FA...THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO RELEASE ITS GRIP ON THE NORTHEAST CONUS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING TREND DURING THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GUSTY NW WIND. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON SHOULD BE 10-15KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT. THE WIND SHIFTS TO N AND THEN NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST SOME LOWER CIGS (MVFR) ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT SBY WITH NE FLOW. A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN US MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE. && .MARINE... A W WIND AROUND 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN SHIFTS TO NE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S IN THE BAY AND RIVERS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ACTUALLY CREATE DECENT MIXING OVER THE WATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. HENCE SCA FLAGS WILL BE RAISED BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE RIVERS AND N-S OVER THE BAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LOW END SCA (18-20KT)...BUT A BRIEF STRONGER SURGE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AN SCA WILL ALSO BE RAISED FOR THE SOUND BEGINNING THIS EVENING. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT A SECONDARY SURGE IS LIKELY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HENCE ALL THE SCA WILL RUN THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RIVERS EXCLUDING THE LOWER JAMES. NE FLOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH SEAS TO 5FT OR GREATER LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY. SCA FLAGS FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT 5FT SEAS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SEAS REMAINING AROUND 3-4FT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A FULL MOON AND ONSHORE FLOW. THE LATEST EXTRATROPICAL GUIDANCE HAS OCEAN CITY INLET EXCEEDING THE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING STAGE DURING THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MD ATLANTIC COAST AND ADJACENT BAYS. ALSO...A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OTHER SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. WATER LEVELS DURING TUESDAY EVENINGS HIGH TIDE WILL BE AROUND MINOR STAGE FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS DURING HIGH TIDE BASED ON THE LATEST MDL GUIDANCE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ024-025. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ635>637. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654- 656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR |
| #515973 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:05 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 753 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...WE HAVE EXPANDED POPS NORTH INTO THE FLORENCE...MARION AND MYRTLE BEACH AREAS FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER DISTURBANCES IS SPREADING A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. WE HAVE ALSO TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA TO ACCOUNT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM FOLLOWS... AN MCS CROSSING NORTHERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP EAST-SOUTHEAST AND MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA FORECAST AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES NORMALLY FOLLOW THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS CONTOURS WHICH WILL DIRECT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SOUTH INTO THE CHARLESTON AREA. BUT...CHANCES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH NORTH OF THE SANTEE RIVER FOR A 30-40 POP THIS MORNING FROM KINGSTREE ACROSS ANDREWS AND INTO GEORGETOWN. THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION INCLUDES A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS CREATES A NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER PLAINS STATES DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY... EACH ACCOMPANIED BY AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS MORNING`S ACTIVITY...THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WE HAVE 30-50 POPS SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE AND 10-30 POPS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. ALTHOUGH NO PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS IN SPC`S SLIGHT RISK AREA THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS CERTAINLY NON-ZERO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL COEXIST WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY COLD BUT THE LACK OF ANY INVERSION LAYERS AND THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE COOLER GFS AND WARMER NAM. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVERAGE. OUR FORECAST NUMBERS TREND TOWARD THE WARMER NAM ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...BUT TOWARD THE COOLER GFS ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA... AVERAGING MID 80S MOST AREAS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOON`S UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SAG INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH DRYING NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 60S...A FEW DEGREES LITTLE COOLER INLAND AND PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. COOL AND DRY ADVECTION OCCURRING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL CREATE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WITH TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW CLIMO. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FROPA BEFORE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WILL ONLY CARRY SCHC ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY...WITH POP FALLING TO SILENT ACROSS THE NC COUNTIES WHICH ARE FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE FRONT. SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRYING OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY...SO EVEN WITH LOWERED HEIGHTS DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER THE MORNING...AND WE SHOULD GET ENOUGH CLEARING TO VIEW THE VENUS TRANSIT TUESDAY EVE. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...TO AROUND 80 IN THE SOUTH. COOL ADVECTION CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST PERSISTS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER IMPULSES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ALOFT DURING THE DAY. WITH THETA-E RIDGE DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA AND RATHER DRY AIR EVIDENT ABOVE 600MB IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE SCHC/LOW CHC POP TO ACCOUNT FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. BEST CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT. TEMPS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 60S AT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...PERSISTENT...NON-JUNE-LIKE...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE FINALLY MOVING AWAY FOR THE WKND. EASTERN TROUGH COMBINED WITH COOL E/NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL...SO WE WILL NOT SEE A WHOLE LOT OF SUNSHINE AT THE END OF THE WEEK EITHER. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES DOWN THE UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL CREATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN FRIDAY...BUT THIS OCCURS AS THE TROUGH IS FINALLY PULLING AWAY AND THE BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY. POTENT UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE THE WEST COAST FRIDAY...AND THIS FINALLY MOVES THE UPPER PATTERN ALONG...ALLOWING FOR THE MIDWEST RIDGE TO PUSH THE EASTERN TROUGH OFFSHORE. THIS WILL FINALLY LEAD TO IMPROVING...AND MORE TYPICAL...JUNE WEATHER WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 12Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF POTENTIAL BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF QUICKLY MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...WITH A SMALL PORTION SKIMMING OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES. VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IS ALREADY INFILTRATING IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS LIKELY INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATTM...CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED REGARDING EXACT TIMING OF EVENTS...THUS HAVE OPTED TO ONLY HAVE VCTS/VCSH IN CURRENT FCST. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTH BECOMING LIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FROPA. RESIDUAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...THE STRONGEST WINDS CONTINUE NEAR CAPE FEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET THAT IS NOW VEERING MORE WESTERLY AS EXPECTED. WIND/WAVE OBSERVATIONS MATCH CURRENT FORECASTS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM FOLLOWS... STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE OCCURRING AS A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET BLOWS ACROSS THE WATERS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS THIS FIRST DISTURBANCE SWEEPS EAST AND ACROSS THE AREA. A SECOND STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING AN EVEN LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AGAIN THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS. GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...AND MARINERS ON PARTICULARLY THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS LATER TODAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2-4 FT WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE CAPE FEAR VICINITY. THE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD DIE AWAY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET DISSIPATES...BUT A STRONG ENOUGH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL REMAIN TO KEEP SHORT PERIOD 2-3 FT SEAS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. COOL AIR ADVECTION ON A NE SURGE OCCURS MUCH OF TUESDAY...CREATING WINDS OF 10-15 KTS FROM THE NE. THESE WINDS FORCE BUILDING SEAS...WITH NE WIND WAVES BECOMING 2-4 FT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND THE HIGHEST WAVES NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY OF AMZ250 AND AMZ252. WEAK RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY AND ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO FLUCTUATE FROM NE TO E AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS HELP SEAS FALL BACK TO ONLY 2-3 FT WITH THE SPECTRUM COMPRISED OF A 4-5 SEC NE WIND WAVE...AND A 4-5 SEC E WIND WAVE. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS PERSISTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH WINDS FLUCTUATING FROM E TO NE AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY. ATTM HAVE KEPT WINDS LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT NOTE THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WOULD PROMOTE MUCH STRONGER NE WINDS...AND LIKELY HIGHER WAVES...BUT THIS IS ONLY EVIDENT IN THE FAR MINORITY OF GUIDANCE SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. INSTEAD WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT...AND HENCE SEAS ONLY 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SINCE THE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF MOSTLY A E/NE WIND WAVE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A WAVE SHADOW REGION SW OF FRYING PAN SHOALS IN THE INNER REGIONS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ254. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #515972 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:59 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 747 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE TRI STATE AREA SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING NEARBY DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING WERE TO EXPAND LIKELY SHOWER COVERAGE...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH...A BIT FARTHER WEST THROUGH THIS MORNING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. ALSO HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS NE ZONES LATER THIS MORNING WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND PROGGED TO AFFECT EASTERN CT...THEN LIKELY SINK SE ACROSS LI THIS AFTERNOON. POPS MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED FURTHER BASED ON EVOLUTION. FOCUS OF SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH...WHERE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT JUST TO THE SW OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AND REMAIN RELATIVELY NEARBY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ROUGHLY ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE LIFT BEFORE SHIFTING SE OF US BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...OVERALL HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG THESE TWO SOURCES OF LIFT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO STAND A CHANCE OF A SHOWER DUE TO INSTABILITY ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE PIVOTING DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. CAPE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW WITH WEAK SHEAR...SO A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS PROBABLY JUST LIMITED TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MAV/NAM MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WERE VERY SIMILAR AND A BLEND OF THE TWO WAS USED. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... CHANCE OF RAINFALL DIMINISHES THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE TROUGH SHIFTING EVEN FARTHER SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST BEGINS TO DEEPEN A LITTLE...AND MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES LATE AT NIGHT...SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WITH THE COLD POOL STILL ALOFT AND THE MODELS SHOWING YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THE AREA...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AGAIN...WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES MORE TOWARDS THE WESTERN ZONES AS PER MODEL QPF OUTPUT AND SHORTWAVE POSITIONING. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH A LITTLE CAPE AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NAM AND MAV MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A BLEND USED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW AND RESULTANT OFFSHORE LOW ON VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING NE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THURSDAY THE RESULT WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGHING AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND SCT AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTMS DURING PEAK HEATING WED-THU. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATER ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH BETTER SURFACE INSTABILITY. ALSO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DECREASE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY DUE TO DECREASING COLD POOL INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. ISOLATED TO SCT SHRA ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON SHORTWAVE TIMING...PARTICULARLY TUES AND WED NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS ON FRI. THIS WILL LIMIT THE LAPSE RATES AND ALLOW FOR AN UPTICK IN TEMPS. PCPN COVERAGE LIMITED TO ISOLD. PEAK TIME AGAIN DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. H5 RIDGE AXIS ROTATES EWD INTO THE CWA FOR SAT PER THE GFS. ECMWF HOLDS BACK THE RIDGE. FCST KEPT DRY FOR NOW AS THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT...BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR ADJUSTMENT SHOULD THE PATTERN IN THE ECMWF VERIFY. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE FROM BELOW SEASONABLE TO ABOVE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DECREASING CLOUD/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EACH DAY AND RISING HEIGHTS. TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AROUND 2 TO 3 KFT TO DEVELOP BY 13Z. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD HELP TO FILL IN ANY BREAKS IN THE DECK THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL BE ON THE VERGE ON VFR THIS AFT AT 3-4 KFT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR VFR APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NYC TERMINALS. E/NE WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO 12 TO 15 KT THIS AFT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AT KGON AND KISP. SOME OF THESE GUSTS MAY GET INTO THE CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS MAY CARRY OVER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT KGON. AS FOR SHOWERS...THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NYC AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS...OTHERWISE WIDELY SCT AND LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN AROUND 06Z TUE. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000 FT POSSIBLE THIS AFT. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000 FT POSSIBLE THIS AFT. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000 FT POSSIBLE THIS AFT. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000 FT POSSIBLE THIS AFT. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BECOME VFR AT 3200 FT. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY BECOME VFR AT 3200 FT. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR...BUT BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...MAINLY IN THE AFT/EARLY EVE HOURS. .FRIDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FOR WINDS AND SEAS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST 5 FT SEAS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE SCA THERE MIGHT NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS...A FAVORABLE ENE TO NE WIND FLOW SHOULD ALLOW SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND SOUND. HAVE THEREFORE PUT A SCA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL BELOW SCA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE AREA. && .HYDROLOGY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD AMOUNT UP TO A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL...HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY EXPECTED. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT HIGH TIDES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A MODERATE NE FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST. SIMILAR TIDAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TIDAL LEVELS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ009-010. NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ072-074-075-079>081-178-179. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-073-078-176-177. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ006. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350. && $$ |
| #515970 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:59 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 650 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .UPDATE...FURTHER ANALYSIS AND CONSULTATION OF SPC AND NSSL WRF MESOSCALE MODELS AS WELL AS HRRR MESOSCALE MODEL AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUSLY CALCULATING WEAKENING OF THE MCS OVER NORTH ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI. EXPECTING ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS TO 45 OR 50 MPH. SHEAR MINIMAL NEAR MOB CWA AS WELL AS BEING REMOVED FROM TRANSIENT VORTLOBE CORRIDOR TO THE NORTHEAST OF HERE. CIN ABOUT 2000. THEREFORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING EXPECTED BY THE TIME IT REACHES MOB CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS. 77/BD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER WESTLANT THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS ALIGNING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ALLOWING FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. OUTFLOW FROM MCS OVER UPSTATE IS SHOWN BY WRF TO PROPAGATE SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE REGION...BUT LITTLE MORE THAN THAT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO STEEPEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A REBOUND IN HUMIDITY NEAR THE SURFACE...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO RENDER CHANCE CONVECTION. EXPECT TO DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT DUE TO HEATING LOSS. THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE. 77/BD A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES MOVES LITTLE. IN ADDITION...A PRE FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SET UP ALONG OR NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.7-1.8 INCHES...AND MLCAPES OF AT LEAST 2500-3000 J/KG...SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INLAND FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVER N MS/AL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR AN ENHANCED RISK OF WET MICROBURSTS AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS... RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS IS PRESENT...WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0 C/KM. INTERESTINGLY...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM12 HAVE SHOWN MLCAPES APPROACHING 4000 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR INLAND CWA BY 18Z TUESDAY. THIS IS IN LARGE PART DUE TO DEWPOINTS NOT MIXING OUT IN THE MODEL AND STAYING IN THE LOW 70S. MIXING OUT DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...WHICH APPEARS POSSIBLE WELL INLAND...WOULD YIELD THE RANGE OF 2500-3000 J/KG. THE SREF SHOWS A 40% CHANCE OF CAPES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG OVER THE INLAND ZONES. THE HIGHER THE CAPES END UP BEING...THE GREATER POTENTIAL WE WILL HAVE OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. THE CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST UNDER W-NW DEEP LAYER FLOW. THEREFORE...COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT WILL JUST BE ENTERING ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR ZONES. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM GUIDANCE ON TEMPS...WITH LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AND VERY MUGGY LOWS IN THE 70S. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPS IN THE 90S AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. 34/JFB LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THERE IS NOW BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL LOCATION AND TIMING THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MLCAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO AT LEAST 2500-3000 J/KG WITH PW`S ACTUALLY INCREASING TO 1.8-1.9 INCHES. SO THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE NEAR AS STEEP COMPARED TO TUESDAY...SO THIS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A PULSE SEVERE STORM OR TWO...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PROGGED. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO EASE FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT IS STILL FORECAST TO BE NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY 12Z THURSDAY. THEREFORE...A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY...BUT ALL GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING MUCH DRIER AIR AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION... ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS CORRESPONDS TO PRECIP WATERS DROPPING TO AT OR BELOW AN INCH. THIS DRY AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR FRI-SAT. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AND A STRENGTHENING SFC-850 MB SE FLOW USHERS IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY TO THE WESTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION...A WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THIS TIME...POSSIBLY HELPING TO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 34/JFB AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR THROUGH PERIOD EXCEPT LEFTOVER MVFR WITH MIST IN TEMPO GROUPS. WIND INCREASING TODAY MAY INTRODUCE LIMITED CONTROL ISSUES NEAR THE GROUND. 77/BD MARINE...A SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TODAY. WIND INCREASING WITH BUILDING SEAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT FROM THE NORTH. WIND APPROACHING OR POSSIBLY MEETING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ELEVATED SEAS ABOUT A FOOT FROM SWAN AND GLOBAL WAVE MODEL OUTPUT TO CONFORM TO BRETSCHNEIDER METHODOLOGY AND TO ENSURE DESIRED FORMATTER OUTPUT. 77/BD FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO STAY WELL ABOVE CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MOISTURE LEVELS RISE WITH THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. VERY WARM TEMPS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS. IN ADDITION... TRANSPORT WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. ANY STRONG STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG AND VARIABLE WIND GUSTS. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 34/JFB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 92 74 94 73 / 05 20 40 40 PENSACOLA 90 77 92 76 / 05 20 40 40 DESTIN 87 77 88 77 / 05 30 30 40 EVERGREEN 96 69 93 70 / 20 40 60 40 WAYNESBORO 93 70 92 69 / 10 20 60 30 CAMDEN 94 69 91 68 / 30 30 60 30 CRESTVIEW 95 69 95 73 / 05 30 50 40 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #515971 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:59 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 650 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .UPDATE...FURTHER ANALYSIS AND CONSULTATION OF SPC AND NSSL WRF MESOSCALE MODELS AS WELL AS HRRR MESOSCALE MODEL AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUSLY CALCULATING WEAKENING OF THE MCS OVER NORTH ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI. EXPECTING ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS TO 45 OR 50 MPH. SHEAR MINIMAL NEAR MOB CWA AS WELL AS BEING REMOVED FROM TRANSIENT VORTLOBE CORRIDOR TO THE NORTHEAST OF HERE. CIN ABOUT 2000. THEREFORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING EXPECTED BY THE TIME IT REACHES MOB CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER WESTLANT THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS ALIGNING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ALLOWING FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. OUTFLOW FROM MCS OVER UPSTATE IS SHOWN BY WRF TO PROPAGATE SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE REGION...BUT LITTLE MORE THAN THAT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO STEEPEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A REBOUND IN HUMIDITY NEAR THE SURFACE...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO RENDER CHANCE CONVECTION. EXPECT TO DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT DUE TO HEATING LOSS. THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE. 77/BD A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES MOVES LITTLE. IN ADDITION...A PRE FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SET UP ALONG OR NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.7-1.8 INCHES...AND MLCAPES OF AT LEAST 2500-3000 J/KG...SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INLAND FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVER N MS/AL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR AN ENHANCED RISK OF WET MICROBURSTS AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS... RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS IS PRESENT...WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0 C/KM. INTERESTINGLY...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM12 HAVE SHOWN MLCAPES APPROACHING 4000 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR INLAND CWA BY 18Z TUESDAY. THIS IS IN LARGE PART DUE TO DEWPOINTS NOT MIXING OUT IN THE MODEL AND STAYING IN THE LOW 70S. MIXING OUT DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...WHICH APPEARS POSSIBLE WELL INLAND...WOULD YIELD THE RANGE OF 2500-3000 J/KG. THE SREF SHOWS A 40% CHANCE OF CAPES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG OVER THE INLAND ZONES. THE HIGHER THE CAPES END UP BEING...THE GREATER POTENTIAL WE WILL HAVE OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. THE CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST UNDER W-NW DEEP LAYER FLOW. THEREFORE...COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT WILL JUST BE ENTERING ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR ZONES. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM GUIDANCE ON TEMPS...WITH LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AND VERY MUGGY LOWS IN THE 70S. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPS IN THE 90S AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. 34/JFB LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THERE IS NOW BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL LOCATION AND TIMING THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MLCAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO AT LEAST 2500-3000 J/KG WITH PW`S ACTUALLY INCREASING TO 1.8-1.9 INCHES. SO THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE NEAR AS STEEP COMPARED TO TUESDAY...SO THIS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A PULSE SEVERE STORM OR TWO...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PROGGED. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO EASE FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT IS STILL FORECAST TO BE NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY 12Z THURSDAY. THEREFORE...A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY...BUT ALL GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING MUCH DRIER AIR AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION... ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS CORRESPONDS TO PRECIP WATERS DROPPING TO AT OR BELOW AN INCH. THIS DRY AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR FRI-SAT. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AND A STRENGTHENING SFC-850 MB SE FLOW USHERS IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY TO THE WESTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION...A WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THIS TIME...POSSIBLY HELPING TO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 34/JFB AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR THROUGH PERIOD EXCEPT LEFTOVER MVFR WITH MIST IN TEMPO GROUPS. WIND INCREASING TODAY MAY INTRODUCE LIMITED CONTROL ISSUES NEAR THE GROUND. 77/BD MARINE...A SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TODAY. WIND INCREASING WITH BUILDING SEAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT FROM THE NORTH. WIND APPROACHING OR POSSIBLY MEETING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ELEVATED SEAS ABOUT A FOOT FROM SWAN AND GLOBAL WAVE MODEL OUTPUT TO CONFORM TO BRETSCHNEIDER METHODOLOGY AND TO ENSURE DESIRED FORMATTER OUTPUT. 77/BD FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO STAY WELL ABOVE CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MOISTURE LEVELS RISE WITH THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. VERY WARM TEMPS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS. IN ADDITION... TRANSPORT WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. ANY STRONG STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG AND VARIABLE WIND GUSTS. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 34/JFB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 92 74 94 73 / 05 20 40 40 PENSACOLA 90 77 92 76 / 05 20 40 40 DESTIN 87 77 88 77 / 05 30 30 40 EVERGREEN 96 69 93 70 / 20 40 60 40 WAYNESBORO 93 70 92 69 / 10 20 60 30 CAMDEN 94 69 91 68 / 30 30 60 30 CRESTVIEW 95 69 95 73 / 05 30 50 40 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #515969 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:45 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 640 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION SECTION BELOW. && .AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR VSBYS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. DO EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CIGS/VSBYS RAPIDLY IMPROVE BY 16Z AS CU SCT OUT AND LIFTS TO VFR LEVELS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS AT MOST LOCATIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION NEAR KLRD LATE THIS EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS.WINDS RELAX THIS EVENING AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY 08Z TUESDAY...BRINGING ABOUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CONDITIONS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE VERY NEAR PERSISTENCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT FALL MUCH GIVEN LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD. THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN AGAIN TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUS...WILL GO WITH MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE THIS EVENING. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...YET CONVECTION MAY HOLD TOGETHER A BIT LONGER AND MOVE FURTHER EAST TONIGHT. GIVEN THE FORECAST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVERHEAD...WILL GO WITH STREAMER SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER VERY WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...PERIOD WILL START WITH WEAKNESS IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS PROG A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FIELDS SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH LATEST RUN OF THE GFS APPEARS TO THE BE OUTLIER ON A STRONGER CAP. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MAY MATERIALIZE AS WELL. CHALLENGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DETERMINING WESTWARD EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON PLACEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BELIEVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. STARTED TO TRIM BACK POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR NOW...WITH 20 TO 30S POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT. TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH MID/UPPER 90S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 90 ALONG THE COASTAL BEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 91 76 91 75 92 / 10 10 20 10 20 VICTORIA 93 74 92 74 93 / 10 10 20 20 20 LAREDO 101 78 101 76 98 / 10 10 10 10 20 ALICE 96 75 96 74 95 / 10 10 20 10 20 ROCKPORT 89 79 88 78 89 / 10 10 20 20 20 COTULLA 98 75 98 74 96 / 10 10 10 10 20 KINGSVILLE 95 76 94 75 94 / 10 10 20 10 20 NAVY CORPUS 90 79 89 77 89 / 10 10 20 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #515968 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:41 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 729 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL PROVIDE A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY STAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, SO FOR NOW KEPT WINDS WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SE WIND DEVELOPS AFTER 4 PM. WILL RE-ASSESS THIS WITH THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST COAST SO MAINTAINED VCTS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION...THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, A TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A WESTERLY FLOW TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT, A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVE LATER TODAY. AT LEAST A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z/19Z, MAINLY DUE TO SOME MODEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE QUITE WARM TODAY ON THE WESTERLY FLOW, AND WE GENERALLY WENT 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS ALONG THE EAST COAST, WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY TO REACH 90-93F. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND THEN INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN GREATEST IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE FORCED SOUTH BY TUESDAY EVENING AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ADVANCES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE MORE ACTIVE AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS FURTHER INCREASE AND WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THERE REMAINS SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED. THE STRENGTH AND ULTIMATE PATH OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL GULF, ALONG WITH THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS FED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. REGARDLESS, AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS LIKELY WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MID-UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXIMA AND THE EXTENT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY, A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG DURING THIS PERIOD. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE TOO STRONG AND DEEP TO ALLOW FOR ROBUST EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY (OR ITS REMNANTS) SLUGGISHLY PUSHING SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL STAY NORTH, ALONG THE FRONT, AND ALSO OVER THE GULF. AS THE BOUNDARY DISINTEGRATES AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS AND BECOMES MORE EASTERLY, SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY. AVIATION...06Z ISSUANCE...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE KEYS TODAY...WITH STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. ONLY THE LOCAL WRF IS SHOWING ANY TYPE OF SEA BREEZE TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND IT IS ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 16 AND 19Z BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WITH SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SEA BREEZE LASTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ATTM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP THE PREVIOUS MENTION IN THE TAF FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 5-10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SEAS MAINLY 4 FEET OR LESS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. AS THE FRONT STALLS AND THEN WEAKENS LATE IN THE WEEK, WINDS MAY SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 91 75 92 74 / 20 20 40 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 92 77 92 77 / 20 20 40 20 MIAMI 93 76 92 77 / 20 20 40 20 NAPLES 88 74 86 76 / 10 10 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #515967 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:39 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 627 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... FOR THE 04/12Z TAF ISSUANCE. && .AVIATION... SOME SLIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 04/13Z AT KAEX/KLCH DUE TO PATCHY FOG/HAZE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS TO KEEP ANY SHOWERS FROM FORMING. RUA && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. SHORT TERM...EASTERN ZONES SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THAT DIRECTION PRODUCES INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO AND SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. LONG TERM...PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOK PROMISING BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE CONUS BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG INTO THE AREA AND STALL NEAR THE COAST. DID NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS THE GFS MEX GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PREFERRING THE MORE CONSERVATIVE EURO NUMBERS ON POPS. SOME MENTION OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THERE ARE NO SYSTEMS TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT OF THE COASTAL AREA SINCE THE UPPER TROF REMAINS A PLAYER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SWEENEY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 91 75 93 72 90 / 0 10 20 10 40 KBPT 91 75 92 72 89 / 0 10 20 10 30 KAEX 94 71 95 72 91 / 0 10 20 20 40 KLFT 92 72 93 72 91 / 0 10 20 10 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #515965 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 626 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION BELOW. && .AVIATION... SOUTHERLY WINDS STILL IN PLACE AND SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12KTS AREA WIDE. SHOULD NOT BE AS GUSTY TODAY AS YESTERDAY. STILL A FEW LOW STRATOCU AND HIGH CIRRUS OVER SE TX WHICH SHOULD PERSIST TODAY. STRATOCU SHOULD GIVE OVER TO HIGHER BASED CU THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THINK WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE SOME TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...MAY HAVE SCT LOW CLOUDS AGAIN WITH MAYBE SOME PATCHY FOG AT SOME OF THE RURAL TERMINALS. GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CIGS FOR HOUSTON TERMINALS THROUGH NEXT 24 HRS. 39 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... THE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING HOLDS THEN WEAKENS. UPPER LOW IN MEXICO WILL LIFT INTO TEXAS AND THEN MEANDER AROUND FOR 4 TO 8 DAYS. MODELS TRENDING THE UPPER LOW TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FARTHER ON THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO BECOME A BIGGER PLAYER IN FOCUSING PRECIPITATION OVER SETX. HIGH PW AIR WILL BE OVER THE REGION AS MOISTURE INCREASES TUESDAY-THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES START INCREASING TUESDAY AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT MAY BE AS WELL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT IT IS STILL TO EARLY TO GO IN THAT BIG YET BUT GETTING CLOSE. THE SAVING GRACE MAY BE THE LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE PROFILE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS STORMS MAY BE SLOW MOVING BUT SCATTERED WITH THE LIGHTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN KEYING IN ON THE PATTERN CHANGE TO A WET PERIOD WEDNESDAY THOUGH THEY DIFFER IN THE EVOLUTION AND DURATION BUT AT THE MOMENT AM LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWFS MORE PERSISTENT WET PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY THE 12TH. NO RECORD TEMPERATURES IN JEOPARDY TODAY OR TUESDAY BEFORE THE COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SET IN WED-SUN WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER BUT WARMER MINS. MARINE... SCEC HAS BEEN EXTENDED A FEW MORE HOURS AS WINDS STILL HANGING AROUND 17KTS WITH SEAS 3-4FT. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. LIGHT/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE UPPER TX COAST FROM THE NE. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TX WILL SUPPORT INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK AND RAIN CHANCES COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SMALL SCALE WX FEATURES WILL PROBABLY DICTATE WIND DIRECTIONS LATE IN THE WEEK. 39 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 97 72 95 71 93 / 10 10 20 20 40 HOUSTON (IAH) 95 74 94 73 92 / 10 10 20 20 40 GALVESTON (GLS) 90 78 88 79 86 / 10 10 20 30 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY... WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && $$ |
| #515964 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 628 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY AFTER BRIEF PERIODS OF PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS BUT MOSTLY SCATTERED AREAS OF THE LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH MID MORNING. CU FIELD TODAY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE MID TO LATE MORNING THEN SLOWLY BREAK UP AND DISSIPATE EAST TO WEST AS THE DAILY SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. HIGH CLOUDS TO ALSO THIN OUT LATER TODAY. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATER TODAY OVER THE SIERRA MADRE. THE WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PUSH THIS ACTIVITY TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS LATE TONIGHT FROM HIDALGO WEST TO ZAPATA AS SOME CONVECTION COULD MAKE IT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. IN THE WAKE OF THE 500 MB LOW...MID LEVEL WEAKNESS ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STREAMER SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING AND SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO MENTION 20 POPS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE IN UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 100 OVER THE WEST AND HAVE LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE LONGER RANGE CMC/GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ALL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID LEVEL TROFFING BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF TX IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD AND STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH DAY 7. THE BIGGEST DISAGREEMENTS CROP UP IN THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL TROFFING AND THE DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MOVING IN WITH THE TROFFING. THE GFS IS THE DRIEST OF THE THREE MODELS WITH THE MOST EASTWARD PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHILE THE ECMWF AND THE CMC BOTH ADVERTISE A DEEPER MOISTURE POOL CLOSER TO DEEP SOUTH TX WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LOCATED CLOSER TO THE BRO CWA AND THE TX COASTLINE. AT THIS POINT IN TIME AM IN SOMEWHAT OF A DILEMMA FOR WHICH MODELS TO FOLLOW. ON ONE HAND THE ECMWF AND CMC GUIDANCE ARE BOTH TRENDING WETTER WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN STUBBORN IN TRENDING DRIER OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WETTER AND DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WILL MAINTAIN 20 % POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE POPS. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO CLOSE TO MEX MOS TEMP GUIDANCE FOR MINS AND WILL GO ABOVE MEX MOS NUMBERS FOR MAX TEMPS THROUGH THUR AND WILL THEN GO CLOSER TO THE MEX GUIDANCE LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE BUILDING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LOWER THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE TEMPS TO COOL A FEW DEGREES. WILL THEN START TO WARM UP TEMPS ONCE AGAIN ON AND AFTER SUNDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT TO THE EAST AWAY FROM TX AND ALLOWS RIDGING TO BUILD BACK IN PLACE. MARINE /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 17 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 3.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 0250 CDT/0750 UTC. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A FAIRLY DISORGANIZED PGF OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE GULF SWELLS THROUGH FRIDAY. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #515963 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:23 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 713 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND SETTLES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE CWA AT DAYBREAK. NO PCPN WAS INDICATED ON RADAR. HAVE A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE TODAY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES AND A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FCST. FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A RATHER POORLY DEFINED SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OR REFORM TO OUR SOUTH AND RESULT IN NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OVER THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LACK OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TRIGGERS SHOULD LIMIT CHANCES FOR PCPN OVER THE AREA. HAVE LINED UP WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND KEPT POPS AT 14 PERCENT OR LESS EXCEPT IN THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE WHERE THERE WILL BE 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN NECK AND VIRGINIA LOWER EASTERN SHORE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FROM 12-14C AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE UPPER 70S ON THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD AIR DAMMING OVER THE PIEDMONT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND A STABILIZING OF THE LOWER LAYERS. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE AND EARLIER FORECASTS AS A RESULT. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LIFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PRODUCE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTN AND HAVE 30 POPS AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES AT 850 WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER BY TUESDAY MORNING AND FOR REASONS MENTIONED EARLIER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 60S ON THE EASTERN SHORE TO THE LOWER 70S OVER INLAND AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR BUT PROBABLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RUN IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT AS PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MOST NOTABLE IS THE AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST (JUST AHEAD OF THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH) ON THURSDAY. AS A COMPARISON...THE 12Z GFS MODEL RUN YESTERDAY HAD THE LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE AKQ CWA ON WEDNESDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAD ROUGHLY THE SAME SOLUTION OCCURRING BUT ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE FA...THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO RELEASE ITS GRIP ON THE NORTHEAST CONUS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING TREND DURING THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GUSTY NW WIND. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON SHOULD BE 10-15KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT. THE WIND SHIFTS TO N AND THEN NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST SOME LOWER CIGS (MVFR) ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT SBY WITH NE FLOW. A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN US MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE. && .MARINE... A W WIND AROUND 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN SHIFTS TO NE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S IN THE BAY AND RIVERS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ACTUALLY CREATE DECENT MIXING OVER THE WATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. HENCE SCA FLAGS WILL BE RAISED BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE RIVERS AND N-S OVER THE BAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LOW END SCA (18-20KT)...BUT A BRIEF STRONGER SURGE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AN SCA WILL ALSO BE RAISED FOR THE SOUND BEGINNING THIS EVENING. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT A SECONDARY SURGE IS LIKELY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HENCE ALL THE SCA WILL RUN THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RIVERS EXCLUDING THE LOWER JAMES. NE FLOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH SEAS TO 5FT OR GREATER LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY. SCA FLAGS FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT 5FT SEAS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SEAS REMAINING AROUND 3-4FT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A FULL MOON AND ONSHORE FLOW. THE LATEST EXTRATROPICAL GUIDANCE HAS OCEAN CITY INLET EXCEEDING THE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING STAGE DURING THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MD ATLANTIC COAST AND ADJACENT BAYS. ALSO...A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OTHER SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. WATER LEVELS DURING TUESDAY EVENINGS HIGH TIDE WILL BE AROUND MINOR STAGE FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS DURING HIGH TIDE BASED ON THE LATEST MDL GUIDANCE. && .CLIMATE... SPRING 2012 WILL GO DOWN IN THE RECORD BOOKS AS THE WARMEST ON RECORD FOR ALL 3 MAJOR CLIMATE SITES. AVG TEMPERATURE DATA FOR SPRING (MAR-MAY) 2012 IS LISTED BELOW... RICHMOND....62.4 F (PREVIOUS WARMEST HAD BEEN 61.4 F IN 2010) NORFOLK.....63.4 F (PREVIOUS WARMEST HAD BEEN 62.7 F IN 1945) SALISBURY...59.8 F (PREVIOUS WARMEST HAD BEEN 59.7 F IN 1945) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ024-025. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ635>637. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654- 656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LSA |
| #515962 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:20 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 716 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON... .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...LIKELY LINGERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AFTER AN MCS PUSHES THROUGH SC COUNTIES EARLY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH IN SE GA MAINLY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY EARLY CONVECTION. THEN...A COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WILL DEVELOP TODAY. WARMING/DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT NEW/INCREASINGLY INTENSE MULTICELL CONVECTION ALONG VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWESTERN/WESTERN COUNTIES THAT RECEIVED LITTLE/NO RAINFALL TODAY. MEANWHILE...ONE OR MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ONGOING/DEVELOPING UPSTREAM...INCLUDING PERHAPS ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL AL...WILL PUSH FROM W/NW TO E/SE ACROSS AREAS ESPECIALLY S/W OF CHS FROM AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS INCLUDING 500 MB WINDS 45-55 KT/0-6 KM SHEAR 45-55 KTS WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL. UNCERTAINTY LINGERS REGARDING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND THE TRACK OF UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. IF SBCAPE INCREASES TO 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS S/W COUNTIES AS DEPICTED BY THE 06Z NAM AND IF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS S/W COUNTIES AS EXPECTED...A SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE EVENT COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...IF INSTABILITY IS WEAKER THAN EXPECTED DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND/OR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY... AND/OR IF UPSTREAM/ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS TRACK S/W OF THE REGION...SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE COULD REMAIN LIMITED. ALSO OF NOTE...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE MCS COULD BEGIN TO BACK BUILD IN AN E-W BAND ACROSS SE GA FOR A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS... REDEVELOPMENT/TRAINING OF CONVECTION COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... ALL FORECAST PARAMETERS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TONIGHT AND WILL DEPEND GREATLY THE IMPACT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE CERTAINLY IN ORDER AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHEST POPS JUSTIFIED ACROSS THE SOUTH. HOWEVER... PRECIPITATION COVERAGE COULD REMAIN SPARSE IN THE WAKE OF ORGANIZED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...OR ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD AS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT LIES OVER/NEAR THE AREA AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE AREA. GENERALLY HAVE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 WHERE THE GREATEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN LIKELY COOLING OFF SLIGHTLY WED/THU. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LIKELY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY...PUSHING THE SURFACE FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT/SUN. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM KCHS AND INTO KSAV THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON COULD BECOME STRONG/SEVERE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING STRONG/SHIFTING WINDS AND IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT KSAV. OUTSIDE ANY THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. SMALL CHANCE OF PERIODIC SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THU AS THE FRONT LINGERS OVER/NEAR THE AREA. && .MARINE... OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS...W/SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE UP TO 20 KT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...THEN WILL VEER TOWARD THE NW AND WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM...BUT LOW PROBABILITY PRECLUDES AN SCA. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FT...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FURTHER...THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER LOCAL WINDS AT ANY TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME WIND/WAVE SURGES DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THROUGH MID WEEK...PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES COULD PRODUCE MINOR SALT WATER FLOODING DURING EACH EVENING HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 730 PM AND 930 PM ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #515960 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:06 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 656 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES...AS A DEVELOPING NOR EASTER BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND INTENSIFIES EAST OF CAPE COD. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY MID TO LATE WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 7 AM UPDATE... WELL NOT YOUR TYPICAL JUNE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE U40S AND L50S AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS AS A COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS EAST OF CAPE COD. COMMA HEAD/TROWAL RAINS CONTINUE TO PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHEAST MA. ANOTHER ATYPICAL FEATURE FOR EARLY JUNE IS BRIGHT BANDING ON RADAR ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY ON OUR DUAL POL RADAR WITH CC VALUES LESS THAN 1. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/RADAR AND SATELLITE MATCHING UP WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST SO NOT PLANNING ON MANY IF ANY CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. LOOKING TO BE A BREEZY...WET...AND COOL DAY. WRAP AROUND WARM CONVEYOR BELT WITHIN THE BETTER TROWAL/DEFORMATION AXIS WILL LEND TO INCREASING WIDESPREAD RAINS N TO S /THE WAVE IS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST WSR-88D RADAR RETURNS ACROSS ME/. WHILE EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINS ARE LIKELY...PRIMARILY AN OVERALL LIGHT RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED...MORESO FOR THE ERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA. TO THE W...THE RGN WILL SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY AS THE BETTER LIFT WILL BE IN PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW...TO WHICH IS E AND OFFSHORE PER WRF/CANADIAN/ECMWF SOLNS. EVALUATING THE AGREEMENT AMONGST AFOREMENTIONED SOLNS...THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF A NELY 35 KT LLJ /H925/ BUILDING SWD ACROSS ERN MA TOWARDS DUSK /THE WRF-NMM THE MOST ROBUST WITH 40-45 KT/. EXPECTING VERY GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND E OF THE 495 BELTWAY. FREQUENT 40 KT GUSTS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 27 KTS ALONG THE ERN SHORELINE OUT ACROSS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS IS PLAUSIBLE. WANT TO LEAN AGAINST THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE DURING SUCH AN ANOMALOUS SITUATION AND LEAN TOWARDS MODEL DERIVED SFC WINDS. CONSIDERING THIS POINT AND THE FACT THAT TREES ARE FULLY LEAFED... AM OF THE OPINION THAT A WIND ADV IS WARRANTED FOR THE E SHORES AND ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. AND FINALLY...WHILE AFTN TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER /10.6 FT FOR BOSTON/...CONSIDERING A 1.3 FT SURGE WHICH OCCURRED THE NIGHT PRIOR AND CONTINUED STRONG NELY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG ERN SHORELINES OF MA THIS AFTN. WILL HOIST A COASTAL FLOOD ADV FOR THE MIDDAY PD. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... SYNOPTIC SITUATION... SFC LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK GRADUALLY SLINKING SEWD FURTHER AWAY FROM SHORE...PUSHED MORESO BY HIGH PRES BUILDING S OUT OF CANADA AND ROUNDING THE STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN /NEGATIVE NAO/ ACROSS THE N ATLANTIC. A TROWAL/DEFORMATION AXIS COLLOCATED WITH THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND STRATIFORM RAINS /EASILY DISCERNABLE PRESENTLY IN THE WV IMAGERY/ SWEEPS S ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY... COLLOCATED WITH AN AXIS OF STRONG NELY BOUNDARY LYR FLOW OF 30 TO 35 MPH. WINDS SHOULD RELAX INTO MONDAY NIGHT YET CONTINUALLY DRAW COOLER AIR SWD. THE NEARLY STACKED LOW PRES DOES NOT WOBBLE FAR INTO THE MIDWEEK PD...ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND A CONTINUED COOL MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE RGN LIKELY RESULTING IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN WX FOR TUESDAY. TONIGHT... AS THE SFC LOW PIVOTS SEWD...THE BETTER TROWAL/DEFORMATION AXIS PRESSES OFFSHORE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINS TO DIMINISH. BUT DURING THE INITIAL PD THE STRONGEST OF LOW-LVL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED WITH A NELY 35 KT LLJ /H925/ PERSISTING ACROSS THE ERN SHORES AND THE CAPE AS LATE AS EARLY MORNING HRS. ONCE AGAIN...THE WRF-NMM MDL FCST IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH 40-45 KTS AT H925. WIND ADV WILL CONTINUE INTO 6Z ACCORDINGLY. IN ADDITION...ASTRO TIDES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ONE TO TWO TENTHS HIGHER...AND WITH THE LONG PREVAILING NELY FLOW /THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL CENTER AROUND DUSK WITH H925 FLOW...2-3 KFT AGL...AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH/ SWELL AND HIGH SURF WILL BE BUILT UP ALONG THE ERN SHORES OF MA. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE AS LIKELY A SIMILAR IF NOT GREATER IMPACT ALONG SHORELINE COMMUNITIES WILL BE OBSERVED AS WAS THE CASE SUNDAY NIGHT /SEE LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORT FOR LAST NIGHTS COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS/. TUESDAY... MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL SE OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND STRONGER LOW-LVL FLOW. YET NEVERTHELESS A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL. A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND THE STRONG ANGLE OF THE SUN SHOULD PROMOTE LOW-LVL MIXING AND DIURNAL INVIGORATION OF SCTD SHOWERS AND PSBL THUNDERSTORMS /ALBEIT INSTABILITY IS WEAK/. CHC POPS WARRANTED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THU * COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING LATE WEEK * PATTERN CHANGE POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK MODEL PREFERENCES... 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS NA THIS PERIOD...WHICH FEATURES A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED OCEAN CYCLONE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AT 00Z WED...THEN SLOWLY DRIFTING SEAWARD TO NEWFOUNDLAND BY FRI. BY LATE FRI INTO SAT MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER THE 12Z ECENS AND THE 00Z UKMET LEND SOME SUPPORT TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI INTO SAT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS CHANCE POPS SO WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. CPC ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CURRENT HIGHLY ANOMALOUS NEGATIVE NAO /INDEX -2/ BEGINS TO TREND TOWARD ZERO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUGGEST A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REDEVELOPING FROM THE MID ATLC INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD FAVOR A TREND TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER INTO NEW ENGLAND. STAY TUNED! SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS... TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCEAN STORM SLOWLY DRIFT INTO ATLC CANADA. THUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT/COMMA HEAD RAINS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. THEREFORE NOT AS WET OR COOL AS MON AND TUE. HOWEVER GIVEN CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD POOL ALOFT SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE. SO BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT. THURSDAY... ALL MODEL GUID SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN...PROMOTING BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. BUT CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ALONG WITH COLD POOL ALOFT. SO MORE OF THE SAME...SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS. MARITIME AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO MODIFY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFT TO THE SSW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPS GIVEN STRONG JUNE SUN. THIS SOLAR HEATING WILL ALSO RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND -18C TO -20C! THUS LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WITH A LOW PROB OF SMALL HAIL. FRIDAY/SAT... AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOME TIMING AND MAGNITUDE DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND PRESERVE CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONCE AGAIN NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT. SUNDAY... ABOVE AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT ON MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND BEING REPLACED BY HEIGHT RISES AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REDEVELOPS FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER. GIVEN THE WARMING TEMPS ALOFT FELT CONFIDENT TO LEAVE FORECAST DRY. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT 7 AM UPDATE... OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENCE PROBABLY THE BEST FORECAST WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY. THEREFORE IFR CIGS WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN A GOOD BET ACROSS EASTERN MA WITH MVFR LIKELY ELSEWHERE IN MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS. NNE WINDS UP TO 35 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CAPE COD/NANTUCKET AND POSSIBLY INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TUE...LIKELY INVIGORATING RENEWED WIDESPREAD SHOWERY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS...DISSIPATING TOWARDS EVNG. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MARGINAL MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS. GUSTY N WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS OF 20-30 KT. GUSTS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THE EVNG PD. INTERMITTENT VSBY IMPACTS DUE TO -RA EXPECTED...YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR IN SHOWERS. MODEST NLY FLOW THRU THE DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS LIKELY LINGERING INTO THE EVNG PD. INTERMITTENT VSBY IMPACTS DUE TO -RA EXPECTED...YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... TUE NIGHT/WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN. WINDS SLACKEN AND BECOME LGT/VRB. CIGS MAY LIFT TO VFR DURING WED AFTN. THU/FRI...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR VFR. LOW RISK OF AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. && .MARINE... EASTERN COASTAL WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WILL SEE INCREASING NELY FLOW INTO THIS EVNG WITH GALE FORCE WINDS /GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE PSBL OVER STELLWAGEN BANK/. SEAS INCREASING 10-12 FT ALONG THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SEAS AROUND 8 FT OUTSIDE THE INNER HARBORS AND BAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THRU THE EVNG PD INTO TUESDAY. LIKELY VSBY IMPACTS. SOUTHERN WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE GALES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR NANTUCKET BAY AND FOR THE OUTER WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO THE EVNG PD. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT ADV IN EFFECT FOR WINDS AROUND 25 KTS BUT REMAINING BELOW GALE FORCE. SEAS OF 6-8 FT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE S OUTER WATERS /BUILDING LESSER SO DUE TO TERRAIN SHIELDING THE WATERS FROM FASTER NELY FLOW/. WIDESPREAD RAIN ANTICIPATED AND LIKELY LEADING TO VSBY IMPACTS. OUTLOOK...TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI... TUE NGT/WED... GALE CENTER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SEAWARD AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. WINDS SLACKEN BUT NE SWELLS PERSIST. VSBY MAY BE POOR IN MORNING FOG AND DRIZZLE. THU/FRI... WEAK HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND IMPROVING VSBY. LIGHT WINDS BUT NE SWELLS MAY LINGER. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... * COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AROUND NOON ALONG THE EAST COAST * COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST AROUND NOON... GALES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE ERN WATERS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PRES CENTER NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WHILE MIDDAY TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER ALONG THE E SHORE /10.6 FT AT BOSTON HARBOR/ THE PERSISTENT NELY FLOW WILL LIKELY LEND TO HIGH SURF AND SURGE /LAST EVNGS SURGE WAS 1.3 FT/. THAT BEING THE CASE...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SPLASHOVER AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE ERN SHORELINES OF MA AND THUS A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT. TONIGHT... WITH CONTINUING TRENDS OF STRONG NELY FLOW /THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL CENTER AROUND DUSK WITH ONSHORE GALE FORCE WINDS/... HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES /12.3 FT AT BOSTON HARBOR/ AND AN ANTICIPATED SURGE OF 1.4 FT...AND CONSIDERING LOCAL STORM REPORTS GATHERED ALONG THE E SHORELINE LAST NIGHT...COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE AS LIKELY SIMILAR IF NOT GREATER IMPACTS ALONG ERN SHORELINE COMMUNITIES ARE ANTICIPATED. HIGH SURF IS ALSO EXPECTED WHICH WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. PLEASE MONITOR ANY UPDATED FORECASTS FOR NEW INFORMATION TOWARD THIS THREAT. TUE NIGHT... MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY AGAIN TUE NIGHT WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. WHILE THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER E WITH TIME...CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THREAT. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022. WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007. WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ019. WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ022-024. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-233>235- 237-256. GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ236. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251. GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254-255. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL |
| #515959 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:00 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 650 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING THEN SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN LATE THURSDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 645 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE FCST. CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS S CAROLINA MOVING ESE AND WILL STAY S OF REGION THIS MORN. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE N THIS MORNING THEN DROP INTO THE NRN SECTIONS LATE TODAY. MDLS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE BUT EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 85 INLAND AND 80 BEACHES. WEAK CONVERGENCE AND INSTAB AHEAD OF FRONT MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN...ESPCLY SRN TIER WHERE MOISTURE A BIT HIGHER. ADDED A SLIGHT POPS SRN TIER THIS AFTN BUT OVERALL THINK MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL DROP S OF THE REGION TONIGHT. CONT ISOLD POP SRN TIER EARLY WITH FROPA THEN MAINLY DRY. MDLS DO SHOW STRONGER SRT WAVE APPROACHING LATE NRN TIER SO CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD SHRA DEVELOPING THESE AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK. WITH CAA DEVELOPING LOW WILL RANGE FROM UPR 50S NW TIER TO MID/UPR 60S SRN BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 AM MON...AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND LONG WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE REGION. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS WELL BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEARLY EVERY DAY. GENERALLY FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SHORT WAVES ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN NOT VERY HIGH IN ANY ONE OPERATIONAL MODEL. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WED WITH AN EVEN STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE THU AND WILL KEEP CHC POPS THESE PERIODS. WITH EACH SHORTWAVE MODELS DEVELOP LOW PRES ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WHICH EJECTS EWD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. JUST HOW CLOSE TO THE REGION AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS THESE LOW PRES AREA WILL HAVE ON THE REGION REMAINS UNCERTAIN. UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE LATE THU SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL BRING A DRIER PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK EXPECTED TO REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THEN WARM TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS RISE. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 645 AM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP S INTO THE NRN TIER LATE TODAY THEN MOVE S THROUGH THE REGION DURING EARLY EVENING. MAY SEE SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DVLP WITH THIS BNDRY BUT CVRG TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WILL HAVE GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TODAY BUT MAINLY MID TO HIGH VARIETY. WINDS WILL BECOME N/NE BEHIND FRONT AND LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO AGAIN LIMIT FOG THREAT TONIGHT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 AM MON...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM BRINGING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOK LIKE WED THROUGH EARLY FRI WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AT THE TERMINALS BUT NOT EXPECTED PROLONGED WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR STRENGTH OF IMPULSES REMAINS BELOW NORMAL. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 645 AM MONDAY...CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. PREV DISC...WSW FLOW 10 TO 20 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT...POSS A FEW 5 FOOTER FAR OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. BACKDOOR FRONT WILL REACH NRN WTRS LATE TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING N AROUND 15 KTS. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH N/NE WINDS DEVELOPING ALL WTRS. LEANED TWRD NAM/CMC FOR WINDS WITH SURGE OF 15 TO 20 KTS DEVELOPING NRN WTRS EARLY THIS EVENING THEN SPREADING S REST OF THE NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF MAINLY 3 TO 4 FT OVERNIGHT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 AM MON...A COLD FRONT WILL STALL S OF THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE REGION. A NELY SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUE AT AROUND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO 3-5 FT ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS TUE AND CONTINUING INTO WED. WINDS BECOME ELY MAINLY BLO 15 KT WED AND THU...THEN PROGGED TO SHIFT BACK TO NELY THU NIGHT AND FRI AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THINK THE LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE LIMITING IMPACT TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND BOTH WAVEWATCH AND SWAN KEEP SEAS AOB 5 FT SO NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF |
| #515958 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:50 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 603 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2012 ...Slight risk of severe storms across portions of southwest and south-central Georgia this afternoon into tonight with the threat continuing and expanding in area on Tuesday... .SYNOPSIS... An active short term period is coming up with multiple chances of severe storms across the forecast area. For today, the threat area appears to be limited to the northern half of the forecast area late this afternoon into the first part of the overnight hours. In fact, many areas across northwest Florida will remain completely dry today. On Tuesday, the threat area expands to include the entire forecast area and there is a better chance of seeing rainfall across most of the area. We also cannot yet rule out the potential for a few severe storms on Wednesday, but that is highly uncertain at this point. The main threats for all three days are damaging straight line winds and large hail. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) The culprit for all of these threats of severe storms is west to northwest flow aloft with upper level shortwaves moving southeast into the area as well as a surface cold front. This northwest flow synoptic pattern is a known producer of severe weather in this part of the country during the summertime. Steep mid-level lapse rates and slightly drier air aloft from the plains get advected eastward, resulting in an unstable air mass capable of producing severe storms when an upper level shortwave comes along to provide the necessary lift. A surface cold front will also move into the area and provide an additional boundary for storms to focus on. For today, the hi-resolution model consensus indicates that most of southern part of the area will actually remain dry. However, the northern portions of the forecast area are threatened by severe storms moving in from the north this afternoon as the first upper level shortwave grazes the area. The 00z run of our local WRF was very aggressive in pushing a large MCS through the forecast area all the way down into northern Florida. While this is not impossible, the other hi-res models from NCEP are not quite that aggressive, although they all do show some kind of MCS clipping at least northern portions of southwest and south-central Georgia. This lines up well with the 06z SPC Day 1 outlook. On Tuesday, another upper level shortwave is forecast to impact the area, and the surface cold front will be moving into the area by that time. This results in a better chance of more widespread convection across the entire forecast area, some of which could be severe. The severe threat will be modulated in part by how convection from overnight on Monday plays into Tuesday. If there is a lot of convection on Monday night into Tuesday morning, then the overall severe threat may be less on Tuesday due to less heating and destabilization. However, if sufficient heating can occur on Tuesday, then SBCAPE values could rise into the 3000 j/kg range in parts of the area, and with deep layer shear values around 30 knots and a focus for convection (the cold front), Tuesday could end up being quite an active day indeed. On Wednesday, confidence is low on how things will play out due to uncertainty with how convection on Tuesday will impact the air mass. However, with a frontal boundary still in the area, a decent coverage convection is expected and the severe threat may not be zero depending on how things play out on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through next Monday) 00z models have come into noticeably better agreement on location and timing of upper/lower systems. The large scale longwave period begins highlighted by a deep trough over western U.S and a W-E oriented trough from low over wrn Atlc wwd to over the eastern U.S. The eastern trough has shown little recent progression due to blocky upper pattern with ridge in Cntrl Conus and in Atlc east of trough. At the surface, a front will be inching swd just north of I-10 with wave riding just ewd. The combination of upper trough and front will allow advection of deep tropical gulf moisture inland, this will provide a moist and unstable local airmass and will keep clouds, storms and locally heavy rain chances in the forecast, especially in the Panhandle and FL Big Bend. Expect max temps only in the upper 80s to low 90s. As the trough pushes offshore and into the coastal areas, the front stalls over nearshore coastal waters and wave exits ewd into the Atlc by late Thursday. As a result, drier air filters in NW-SE from a ridge diving out of the Ohio River Valley. Since the most recent Euro, which previously left the trof hanging in the region for the weekend, has begun to trend more towards the GFS solution, we have decided to knock down the weekend PoPs a bit with noted N-S gradient. Both the Euro and GFS agree on a cut off low over TX gradually approaching the area from the west and the front retreating back NWWD Sun into Mon. Conversely, high continues to dominate ern areas. So PoPs have been bumped up in the Western Panhandle and Southern Alabama. With position of this high, expect generally clearer skies, and southerly flow so temps will begin trending warmer with highs into the mid 90s and lows near 70. && .AVIATION...thru 12z Tues. Guidance suggests that TLH with brief IFR vsbys and VLD brief MVFR vsbys til 14Z A Thunderstorm complex could make its way through the GA counties beginning in the late afternoon into evening hours, so we have gone with VCTS wording at VLD,ABY and DHN with tempo TSRA at VLD 21Z-01Z. Ceilings and fog reductions to MVFR or worse are possible after 08z Tue morning. && .MARINE... Winds will start to increase today with a cold front nearing the waters by Tuesday. Cautionary conditions are expected at times through Tuesday night, and winds could briefly reach low end advisory levels on Tuesday. Unsettled conditions are expected through the remainder of the week with showers and thunderstorms over the marine area. && .FIRE WEATHER... The air mass across the region will begin to moisten today. However, rh values are expected to drop below 35 percent for 2 to 3 hours across portions of the inland Florida panhandle. Increasing winds across this area will also boost dispersion values above 75 and ERC values will remain above 35. Therefore a red flag warning was issued to replace the fire weather watch that was in effect. Elsewhere where rh values will remain above 35 percent so the fire weather watch was cancelled. Humidity values are forecast to remain well above 35 percent on Tuesday and into the middle of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 95 72 93 73 89 / 10 30 70 50 60 Panama City 90 76 90 75 88 / 10 30 60 50 60 Dothan 95 73 93 73 91 / 40 40 60 40 60 Albany 92 72 91 71 91 / 50 40 60 40 50 Valdosta 93 71 90 71 89 / 40 30 70 40 60 Cross City 90 74 90 74 89 / 10 20 60 40 50 Apalachicola 88 76 89 75 86 / 0 20 60 40 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...None. FL...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 5 PM CDT this afternoon for Holmes- Inland Walton-Jackson. GM...None. && $$ |
| #515956 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:29 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 618 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. HOWEVER, THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 614 AM...I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON MESONET. PREV DISC... GOES WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE UPPER LOW CENTERED VICINITY OF THE MAINE MID COAST AS OF 06Z...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTERED WELL EAST OF BOSTON /KBOS/. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE BACK TO THE WEST AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WE`LL SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH ADDITIONAL QPF ON THE ORDER OF ONE-HALF INCH...WITH EMBEDDED BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN YIELDING AS MUCH AS AN ADDITIONAL INCH. BRISK ONSHORE WINDS WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 50`S OR A FULL TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT BUT A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG. BIG CONCERN WILL BE THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF COASTAL FLOODING. LITTLE CHANGE ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARBY...WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG. TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN TODAY...CLOSE TO 60F...BUT STILL CLOSE TO TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DATE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH FEWER SHOWERS AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND AND PRODUCING ONLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AS WELL WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STILL OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY THURSDAY. BY LATE IN THE WEEK SOME OF THE HIGHER HEIGHTS TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA AS LARGE THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN GRADUALLY ALLOWING FOR A MARKED DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION AND AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SPAGHETTI PLOT ENSEMBLES ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT EVEN AT THIS POINT...BUT THEY AGREE THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...PUSHING A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AS RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP FRIDAY EVENING...WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS A 90KT JET STREAK AND -18 DEGREES C COLD POOL MOVES BY OVERHEAD. MONDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET AT THIS POINT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MVFR WITH SCATTERED IFR AT TIMES IN DRIZZLE AND FOG. NE SFC WIND TODAY OVR ME AND ALONG THE COAST WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KT. LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...WINDS HAVE TRENDED DOWN AND THE GALE WAS REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE ONSHORE FLOW. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR FORECAST POINTS ALONG THE PRESUMPTSCOT, ANDROSCOGGIN, SANDY, AND KENNEBEC RIVERS CONTINUE. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN TODAY PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED AND WILL EITHER DELAY CRESTS...OR SLOW THE RECESSION SIDE OF THE HYDRO CURVE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT. TONIGHT...THE HIGHEST IN A CYCLE OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES /11.9 FEET MLLW AT 1143 PM/ WILL OCCUR AND WITH A WEAKER BUT STILL NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLOODING ALONG THE COAST AT HIGH TIDE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MEZ023>028. NH...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NHZ014. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ ES |
| #515955 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:20 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 614 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS DAILY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THIS MRNG BEFORE MOVING GRADUALLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTN AND TNGT. EXPECT A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS MRNG. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WRN NY ERY THIS MRNG WILL DIVE SEWD THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC STATES TDA. SIMILAR TO YDA...POP- UP SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA DURING THE AFTN AND ERY EVE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. SHOWERS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP AS ERY AS THE LATE MRNG OVER NRN MD AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE POTOMAC DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING MID-LVL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY. RAP FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW EQUILIBRIUM LVLS BETWEEN -5C AND -15C LATE THIS AFTN...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CAA AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN. TOOK A BLEND BETWEEN THE COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN NRN MD TO NEAR 80F IN CENTRAL VA. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TNGT. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVNGT FOR NRN MD. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... CLOSED UPR LOW OVER NERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THRU MID-WK...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN NLY-NWLY H5 FLOW OVER MID-ATLC RGN. SVRL SHRTWV TROFS WILL MOVE THRU THIS FLOW TUE AND WED...LEADING TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHWRS OWING TO STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES. INSTBY XPCD TO BE SHALLOW ON TUE...SO TSTMS NOT XPCD. SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHRTWV TROF ON WED WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCRD LOW-LVL MSTR AHD OF APRCHG CDFNT...WHICH MAY PROVIDE GREATER CHC FOR TSTMS. UNUSUALLY COOL MAXIMA IN THE LWR 70S XPCD TUE AND WED...WITH MINIMA IN THE LOW-MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPR RDG WILL AMPLIFY IN CNTRL CONUS LATE IN THE WK WHILE NERN CONUS UPR LOW SHIFTS EWD. SFC HIPRES WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLC RGN FRI AND SAT...EFFECTIVELY LMTG ANY PCPN CHCS. SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE ACRS SRN NY/CNTRL PA ON SUN. MSTR XPCD TO INCR AHD OF THIS WAVE AS SFC TROF CROSSES THE RGN. AS A RESULT... TSTMS MAY DVLP ALONG THIS BNDRY SUN EVE...WHICH WOULD MOVE SEWD INTO FCST AREA. ONLY CHG TO POPS IN EXTENDED WAS TO INCLUDE SLGT CHC TSTMS DURG SUN NGT PD. TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY LATE IN THE WK AS UPR RDG MOVES CLOSER. MAXIMA NR OR SLGTLY ABV NRML CAN BE XPCD DURG THE WKEND. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WLY WINDS THIS MRNG WILL VEER TO NWLY THIS AFTN AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THRU. BREEZY WINDS TDA WILL GUST 20-25 KT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA TO IMPACT BWI/MTN. CHANCES FOR TSRA ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. DAILY ROUNDS OF SHWRS CAN BE XPCD TUE AND WED. IT IS NOT PSBL ATTM TO IDENTIFY WHETHER THESE WOULD IMPACT ANY TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH CLDS XPCD TO PERSIST THRU AT LEAST WED NGT...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD RMN VFR. && .MARINE... LGT WINDS ERY THIS MRNG WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE. SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES TDA...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT EXPECTED. WLY WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME...BECOMING NWLY BY THIS AFTN. DESPITE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A LOCALIZED 30 KT OR HIGHER WIND GUST TDA...ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE AFTN WHEN THE WIND FIELD IS THE STRONGEST. SMALL CRAFT ADZY WAS RETAINED THRU MID-DAY TUE OWING TO NLY CHANNELING PSBLTY. WIND WILL BCM LGT THEREAFTER. NO SGFNT MARINE HAZARDS XPCD THRU RMNDR OF WK OWING TO APRCHG SFC HIPRES. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EXPANDED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO INCLUDE DC. THE CURRENT TIDAL ANOMALY AT WASH CHANNEL IS 0.7 ABOVE...WHICH WOULD PUT THE TIDAL LVL JUST ABOVE MINOR THRESHOLD WITH THE MRNG HIGH TIDE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MON MRNG HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR THE MOST SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND WRN SHORE OF THE MD CHSPK BAY. POSITIVE ANOMALIES REMAIN BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 FT OVNGT. WITH A FULL MOON... DEPARTURES OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL TRANSLATE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT ALEXANDRIA AND ANNAPOLIS. WILL STILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SLIGHTLY LESS SENSITIVE LOCATIONS SUCH AS BOWLEY BAR AND WASHINGTON CHANNEL...SINCE THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL BE CLOSE TO THEIR MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001. MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014. VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ054. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537- 539>541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530- 535-536-538-542. && $$ UPDATE...KLEIN |
| #515954 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:17 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 605 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 6 AM UPDATE...CUT BACK ON RAIN A BIT AS AREA OF RAIN DOWNEAST HAS NUDGED JUST A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. STILL EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA LATER TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND A LARGE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A COOL NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE OVER THE AREA TODAY. RAIN LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PUSHES SOUTH. NORTHEAST AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...SOME MOISTURE BACKING IN FROM THE MARITIMES MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. TEMPS OVER THE AREA WILL AVERAGE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TONIGHT AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE A NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL BE CREATING SOME UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE PESKY UPPER LOW FINALLY DEPARTS THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY AND IS REPLACED BY WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE 00Z GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DOWNEAST TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. SHORT TERM: OCNL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES DUE TO SHOWERS AND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 8 TO 10 FT EARLY TODAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS VEER MORE NORTHEASTERLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY WITH SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET. && .HYDROLOGY... A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR PISCATAQUIS, SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT, AND HANCOCK COUNTIES THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY SOUTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY, WHERE STORM TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA, TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AN INCH OR LESS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS TODAY BUT AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO A HALF INCH IS EXPECTED IN SOME UPSLOPE AREAS. MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALLER STREAMS AND BROOKS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS. WATERWAYS OF MOST CONCERN ARE KINGSBURY STREAM, SEBEC RIVER, THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER AND THE TRIBUTARIES THEREOF. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ004-010-015- 016-029-031. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...BLOOMER |
| #515953 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:08 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 607 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...WE HAVE EXPANDED POPS NORTH INTO THE FLORENCE...MARION AND MYRTLE BEACH AREAS FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER DISTURBANCES IS SPREADING A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. WE HAVE ALSO TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA TO ACCOUNT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM FOLLOWS... AN MCS CROSSING NORTHERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP EAST-SOUTHEAST AND MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA FORECAST AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES NORMALLY FOLLOW THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS CONTOURS WHICH WILL DIRECT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SOUTH INTO THE CHARLESTON AREA. BUT...CHANCES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH NORTH OF THE SANTEE RIVER FOR A 30-40 POP THIS MORNING FROM KINGSTREE ACROSS ANDREWS AND INTO GEORGETOWN. THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION INCLUDES A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS CREATES A NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER PLAINS STATES DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY... EACH ACCOMPANIED BY AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS MORNING`S ACTIVITY...THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WE HAVE 30-50 POPS SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE AND 10-30 POPS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. ALTHOUGH NO PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS IN SPC`S SLIGHT RISK AREA THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS CERTAINLY NON-ZERO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL COEXIST WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY COLD BUT THE LACK OF ANY INVERSION LAYERS AND THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE COOLER GFS AND WARMER NAM. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVERAGE. OUR FORECAST NUMBERS TREND TOWARD THE WARMER NAM ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...BUT TOWARD THE COOLER GFS ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA... AVERAGING MID 80S MOST AREAS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOON`S UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SAG INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH DRYING NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 60S...A FEW DEGREES LITTLE COOLER INLAND AND PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. COOL AND DRY ADVECTION OCCURRING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL CREATE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WITH TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW CLIMO. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FROPA BEFORE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WILL ONLY CARRY SCHC ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY...WITH POP FALLING TO SILENT ACROSS THE NC COUNTIES WHICH ARE FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE FRONT. SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRYING OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY...SO EVEN WITH LOWERED HEIGHTS DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER THE MORNING...AND WE SHOULD GET ENOUGH CLEARING TO VIEW THE VENUS TRANSIT TUESDAY EVE. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...TO AROUND 80 IN THE SOUTH. COOL ADVECTION CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST PERSISTS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER IMPULSES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ALOFT DURING THE DAY. WITH THETA-E RIDGE DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA AND RATHER DRY AIR EVIDENT ABOVE 600MB IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE SCHC/LOW CHC POP TO ACCOUNT FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. BEST CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT. TEMPS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 60S AT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...PERSISTENT...NON-JUNE-LIKE...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE FINALLY MOVING AWAY FOR THE WKND. EASTERN TROUGH COMBINED WITH COOL E/NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL...SO WE WILL NOT SEE A WHOLE LOT OF SUNSHINE AT THE END OF THE WEEK EITHER. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES DOWN THE UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL CREATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN FRIDAY...BUT THIS OCCURS AS THE TROUGH IS FINALLY PULLING AWAY AND THE BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY. POTENT UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE THE WEST COAST FRIDAY...AND THIS FINALLY MOVES THE UPPER PATTERN ALONG...ALLOWING FOR THE MIDWEST RIDGE TO PUSH THE EASTERN TROUGH OFFSHORE. THIS WILL FINALLY LEAD TO IMPROVING...AND MORE TYPICAL...JUNE WEATHER WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS. A MODERATE SOUTHWEST WIND WILL TURN WESTERLY AND MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO FOG EXPECTED. AFTER DAYBREAK MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A SURFACE FRONT DIPS SOUTHWARD UNDERNEATH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO COVERAGE...SO WILL GO WITH VCTS AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE...GUSTY AT TIMES BY MID TO LATE MORNING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...THE STRONGEST WINDS CONTINUE NEAR CAPE FEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET THAT IS NOW VEERING MORE WESTERLY AS EXPECTED. WIND/WAVE OBSERVATIONS MATCH CURRENT FORECASTS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM FOLLOWS... STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE OCCURRING AS A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET BLOWS ACROSS THE WATERS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS THIS FIRST DISTURBANCE SWEEPS EAST AND ACROSS THE AREA. A SECOND STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING AN EVEN LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AGAIN THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS. GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...AND MARINERS ON PARTICULARLY THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS LATER TODAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2-4 FT WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE CAPE FEAR VICINITY. THE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD DIE AWAY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET DISSIPATES...BUT A STRONG ENOUGH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL REMAIN TO KEEP SHORT PERIOD 2-3 FT SEAS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. COOL AIR ADVECTION ON A NE SURGE OCCURS MUCH OF TUESDAY...CREATING WINDS OF 10-15 KTS FROM THE NE. THESE WINDS FORCE BUILDING SEAS...WITH NE WIND WAVES BECOMING 2-4 FT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND THE HIGHEST WAVES NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY OF AMZ250 AND AMZ252. WEAK RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY AND ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO FLUCTUATE FROM NE TO E AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS HELP SEAS FALL BACK TO ONLY 2-3 FT WITH THE SPECTRUM COMPRISED OF A 4-5 SEC NE WIND WAVE...AND A 4-5 SEC E WIND WAVE. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS PERSISTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH WINDS FLUCTUATING FROM E TO NE AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY. ATTM HAVE KEPT WINDS LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT NOTE THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WOULD PROMOTE MUCH STRONGER NE WINDS...AND LIKELY HIGHER WAVES...BUT THIS IS ONLY EVIDENT IN THE FAR MINORITY OF GUIDANCE SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. INSTEAD WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT...AND HENCE SEAS ONLY 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SINCE THE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF MOSTLY A E/NE WIND WAVE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A WAVE SHADOW REGION SW OF FRYING PAN SHOALS IN THE INNER REGIONS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ254. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 500 AM MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONE ARE PREDICTED TO CREATE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ON THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER AT DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON TONIGHT. GIVEN THE RECENT WATER LEVEL ANOMALY OBSERVED AT THE DOWNTOWN GAUGE WE ANTICIPATE WATER TO REACH ABOUT A HALF FOOT ABOVE THE 5.50 FT MLLW FLOOD STAGE. ALONG THE BEACHES THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONE WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF ESTABLISHED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CRITERIA (7.50 FT MLLW AT MYRTLE BEACH AND 6.00 FT MLLW AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH) BUT A SMALLER ANOMALY MAY STILL ALLOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE TO BRIEFLY BE REACHED AT BOTH THE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND AT MYRTLE BEACH GAUGES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #515952 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:08 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 603 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2012 ...Slight risk of severe storms across portions of southwest and south-central Georgia this afternoon into tonight with the threat continuing and expanding in area on Tuesday... .SYNOPSIS... An active short term period is coming up with multiple chances of severe storms across the forecast area. For today, the threat area appears to be limited to the northern half of the forecast area late this afternoon into the first part of the overnight hours. In fact, many areas across northwest Florida will remain completely dry today. On Tuesday, the threat area expands to include the entire forecast area and there is a better chance of seeing rainfall across most of the area. We also cannot yet rule out the potential for a few severe storms on Wednesday, but that is highly uncertain at this point. The main threats for all three days are damaging straight line winds and large hail. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) The culprit for all of these threats of severe storms is west to northwest flow aloft with upper level shortwaves moving southeast into the area as well as a surface cold front. This northwest flow synoptic pattern is a known producer of severe weather in this part of the country during the summertime. Steep mid-level lapse rates and slightly drier air aloft from the plains get advected eastward, resulting in an unstable air mass capable of producing severe storms when an upper level shortwave comes along to provide the necessary lift. A surface cold front will also move into the area and provide an additional boundary for storms to focus on. For today, the hi-resolution model consensus indicates that most of southern part of the area will actually remain dry. However, the northern portions of the forecast area are threatened by severe storms moving in from the north this afternoon as the first upper level shortwave grazes the area. The 00z run of our local WRF was very aggressive in pushing a large MCS through the forecast area all the way down into northern Florida. While this is not impossible, the other hi-res models from NCEP are not quite that aggressive, although they all do show some kind of MCS clipping at least northern portions of southwest and south-central Georgia. This lines up well with the 06z SPC Day 1 outlook. On Tuesday, another upper level shortwave is forecast to impact the area, and the surface cold front will be moving into the area by that time. This results in a better chance of more widespread convection across the entire forecast area, some of which could be severe. The severe threat will be modulated in part by how convection from overnight on Monday plays into Tuesday. If there is a lot of convection on Monday night into Tuesday morning, then the overall severe threat may be less on Tuesday due to less heating and destabilization. However, if sufficient heating can occur on Tuesday, then SBCAPE values could rise into the 3000 j/kg range in parts of the area, and with deep layer shear values around 30 knots and a focus for convection (the cold front), Tuesday could end up being quite an active day indeed. On Wednesday, confidence is low on how things will play out due to uncertainty with how convection on Tuesday will impact the air mass. However, with a frontal boundary still in the area, a decent coverage convection is expected and the severe threat may not be zero depending on how things play out on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through next Monday) 00z models have come into noticeably better agreement on location and timing of upper/lower systems. The large scale longwave period begins highlighted by a deep trough over western U.S and a W-E oriented trough from low over wrn Atlc wwd to over the eastern U.S. The eastern trough has shown little recent progression due to blocky upper pattern with ridge in Cntrl Conus and in Atlc east of trough. At the surface, a front will be inching swd just north of I-10 with wave riding just ewd. The combination of upper trough and front will allow advection of deep tropical gulf moisture inland, this will provide a moist and unstable local airmass and will keep clouds, storms and locally heavy rain chances in the forecast, especially in the Panhandle and FL Big Bend. Expect max temps only in the upper 80s to low 90s. As the trough pushes offshore and into the coastal areas, the front stalls over nearshore coastal waters and wave exits ewd into the Atlc by late Thursday. As a result, drier air filters in NW-SE from a ridge diving out of the Ohio River Valley. Since the most recent Euro, which previously left the trof hanging in the region for the weekend, has begun to trend more towards the GFS solution, we have decided to knock down the weekend PoPs a bit with noted N-S gradient. Both the Euro and GFS agree on a cut off low over TX gradually approaching the area from the west and the front retreating back NWWD Sun into Mon. Conversely, high continues to dominate ern areas. So PoPs have been bumped up in the Western Panhandle and Southern Alabama. With position of this high, expect generally clearer skies, and southerly flow so temps will begin trending warmer with highs into the mid 90s and lows near 70. && .AVIATION...thru 12z Tues. Vis guidance suggests that our current southerly flow will bring the possibility of reduced ceilings and vis in the western portion of our region, therefore we have gone with MVFR for DHN and ECP thru 13z-14z. A Thunderstorm complex could make its way through the GA counties beginning in the late afternoon into evening hours, so we have gone with VCTS wording. Ceilings and fog reductions to MVFR or worse are possible by after 08z Tue morning. && .MARINE... Winds will start to increase today with a cold front nearing the waters by Tuesday. Cautionary conditions are expected at times through Tuesday night, and winds could briefly reach low end advisory levels on Tuesday. Unsettled conditions are expected through the remainder of the week with showers and thunderstorms over the marine area. && .FIRE WEATHER... The air mass across the region will begin to moisten today. However, rh values are expected to drop below 35 percent for 2 to 3 hours across portions of the inland Florida panhandle. Increasing winds across this area will also boost dispersion values above 75 and ERC values will remain above 35. Therefore a red flag warning was issued to replace the fire weather watch that was in effect. Elsewhere where rh values will remain above 35 percent so the fire weather watch was cancelled. Humidity values are forecast to remain well above 35 percent on Tuesday and into the middle of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 95 72 93 73 89 / 10 30 70 50 60 Panama City 90 76 90 75 88 / 10 30 60 50 60 Dothan 95 73 93 73 91 / 40 40 60 40 60 Albany 92 72 91 71 91 / 50 40 60 40 50 Valdosta 93 71 90 71 89 / 40 30 70 40 60 Cross City 90 74 90 74 89 / 10 20 60 40 50 Apalachicola 88 76 89 75 86 / 0 20 60 40 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...None. FL...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 5 PM CDT this afternoon for Holmes- Inland Walton-Jackson. GM...None. && $$ |
| #515951 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:56 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 554 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND SETTLES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A RATHER POORLY DEFINED SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OR REFORM TO OUR SOUTH AND RESULT IN NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OVER THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LACK OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TRIGGERS SHOULD LIMIT CHANCES FOR PCPN OVER THE AREA. HAVE LINED UP WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND KEPT POPS AT 14 PERCENT OR LESS EXCEPT IN THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE WHERE THERE WILL BE 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN NECK AND VIRGINIA LOWER EASTERN SHORE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FROM 12-14C AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE UPPER 70S ON THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD AIR DAMMING OVER THE PIEDMONT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND A STABILIZING OF THE LOWER LAYERS. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE AND EARLIER FORECASTS AS A RESULT. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LIFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PRODUCE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTN AND HAVE 30 POPS AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES AT 850 WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER BY TUESDAY MORNING AND FOR REASONS MENTIONED EARLIER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 60S ON THE EASTERN SHORE TO THE LOWER 70S OVER INLAND AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR BUT PROBABLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RUN IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT AS PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MOST NOTABLE IS THE AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST (JUST AHEAD OF THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH) ON THURSDAY. AS A COMPARISON...THE 12Z GFS MODEL RUN YESTERDAY HAD THE LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE AKQ CWA ON WEDNESDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAD ROUGHLY THE SAME SOLUTION OCCURRING BUT ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE FA...THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO RELEASE ITS GRIP ON THE NORTHEAST CONUS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING TREND DURING THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR SBY HAS AVOIDED THE TERMINAL TO THIS POINT...AND THE FINAL AREA OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO TRACK ACROSS DE AND REMAIN NORTH OF THE SITE. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GUSTY NW WIND. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON SHOULD BE 10-15KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT. THE WIND SHIFTS TO N AND THEN NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST SOME LOWER CIGS (MVFR) ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT SBY WITH NE FLOW. A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN US MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE. && .MARINE... A W WIND AROUND 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN SHIFTS TO NE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S IN THE BAY AND RIVERS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ACTUALLY CREATE DECENT MIXING OVER THE WATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. HENCE SCA FLAGS WILL BE RAISED BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE RIVERS AND N-S OVER THE BAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LOW END SCA (18-20KT)...BUT A BRIEF STRONGER SURGE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AN SCA WILL ALSO BE RAISED FOR THE SOUND BEGINNING THIS EVENING. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT A SECONDARY SURGE IS LIKELY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HENCE ALL THE SCA WILL RUN THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RIVERS EXCLUDING THE LOWER JAMES. NE FLOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH SEAS TO 5FT OR GREATER LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY. SCA FLAGS FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT 5FT SEAS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SEAS REMAINING AROUND 3-4FT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A FULL MOON AND ONSHORE FLOW. THE LATEST EXTRATROPICAL GUIDANCE HAS OCEAN CITY INLET EXCEEDING THE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING STAGE DURING THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE. THE PERFORMANCE OF THE GUIDANCE WILL BE MONITORED FOR THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE BEFORE ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. WATER LEVELS DURING TUESDAY EVENINGS HIGH TIDE WILL BE AROUND MINOR STAGE FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING HIGH TIDE TUESDAY EVENING BASED ON THE LATEST MDL GUIDANCE. && .CLIMATE... SPRING 2012 WILL GO DOWN IN THE RECORD BOOKS AS THE WARMEST ON RECORD FOR ALL 3 MAJOR CLIMATE SITES. AVG TEMPERATURE DATA FOR SPRING (MAR-MAY) 2012 IS LISTED BELOW... RICHMOND....62.4 F (PREVIOUS WARMEST HAD BEEN 61.4 F IN 2010) NORFOLK.....63.4 F (PREVIOUS WARMEST HAD BEEN 62.7 F IN 1945) SALISBURY...59.8 F (PREVIOUS WARMEST HAD BEEN 59.7 F IN 1945) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ635>637. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654- 656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LSA |
| #515950 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:53 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 441 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER WESTLANT THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS ALIGNING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ALLOWING FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. OUTFLOW FROM MCS OVER UPSTATE IS SHOWN BY WRF TO PROPAGATE SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE REGION...BUT LITTLE MORE THAN THAT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO STEEPEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A REBOUND IN HUMIDITY NEAR THE SURFACE...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO RENDER CHANCE CONVECTION. EXPECT TO DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT DUE TO HEATING LOSS. THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE. 77/BD A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES MOVES LITTLE. IN ADDITION...A PRE FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SET UP ALONG OR NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.7-1.8 INCHES...AND MLCAPES OF AT LEAST 2500-3000 J/KG...SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INLAND FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVER N MS/AL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR AN ENHANCED RISK OF WET MICROBURSTS AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS... RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS IS PRESENT...WITH 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0 C/KM. INTERESTINGLY...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM12 HAVE SHOWN MLCAPES APPROACHING 4000 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR INLAND CWA BY 18Z TUESDAY. THIS IS IN LARGE PART DUE TO DEWPOINTS NOT MIXING OUT IN THE MODEL AND STAYING IN THE LOW 70S. MIXING OUT DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...WHICH APPEARS POSSIBLE WELL INLAND...WOULD YIELD THE RANGE OF 2500-3000 J/KG. THE SREF SHOWS A 40% CHANCE OF CAPES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG OVER THE INLAND ZONES. THE HIGHER THE CAPES END UP BEING...THE GREATER POTENTIAL WE WILL HAVE OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. THE CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST UNDER W-NW DEEP LAYER FLOW. THEREFORE...COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT WILL JUST BE ENTERING ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR ZONES. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM GUIDANCE ON TEMPS...WITH LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AND VERY MUGGY LOWS IN THE 70S. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPS IN THE 90S AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. 34/JFB .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THERE IS NOW BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL LOCATION AND TIMING THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MLCAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO AT LEAST 2500-3000 J/KG WITH PW`S ACTUALLY INCREASING TO 1.8-1.9 INCHES. SO THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE NEAR AS STEEP COMPARED TO TUESDAY...SO THIS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A PULSE SEVERE STORM OR TWO...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PROGGED. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO EASE FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT IS STILL FORECAST TO BE NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY 12Z THURSDAY. THEREFORE...A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY...BUT ALL GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING MUCH DRIER AIR AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION... ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS CORRESPONDS TO PRECIP WATERS DROPPING TO AT OR BELOW AN INCH. THIS DRY AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR FRI-SAT. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AND A STRENGTHENING SFC-850 MB SE FLOW USHERS IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY TO THE WESTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION...A WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THIS TIME...POSSIBLY HELPING TO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 34/JFB && .AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR THROUGH PERIOD EXCEPT LEFTOVER MVFR WITH MIST IN TEMPO GROUPS. WIND INCREASING TODAY MAY INTRODUCE LIMITED CONTROL ISSUES NEAR THE GROUND. 77/BD && .MARINE...A SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TODAY. WIND INCREASING WITH BUILDING SEAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT FROM THE NORTH. WIND APPROACHING OR POSSIBLY MEETING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ELEVATED SEAS ABOUT A FOOT FROM SWAN AND GLOBAL WAVE MODEL OUTPUT TO CONFORM TO BRETSCHNEIDER METHODOLOGY AND TO ENSURE DESIRED FORMATTER OUTPUT. 77/BD && .FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO STAY WELL ABOVE CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MOISTURE LEVELS RISE WITH THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. VERY WARM TEMPS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS. IN ADDITION... TRANSPORT WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. ANY STRONG STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG AND VARIABLE WIND GUSTS. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 34/JFB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 92 74 94 73 / 05 20 40 40 PENSACOLA 90 77 92 76 / 05 20 40 40 DESTIN 87 77 88 77 / 05 30 30 40 EVERGREEN 96 69 93 70 / 20 40 60 40 WAYNESBORO 93 70 92 69 / 10 20 60 30 CAMDEN 94 69 91 68 / 30 30 60 30 CRESTVIEW 95 69 95 73 / 05 30 50 40 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #515949 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:47 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 432 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...EASTERN ZONES SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THAT DIRECTION PRODUCES INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO AND SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. && .LONG TERM...PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOK PROMISING BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE CONUS BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG INTO THE AREA AND STALL NEAR THE COAST. DID NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS THE GFS MEX GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PREFERRING THE MORE CONSERVATIVE EURO NUMBERS ON POPS. SOME MENTION OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THERE ARE NO SYSTEMS TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT OF THE COASTAL AREA SINCE THE UPPER TROF REMAINS A PLAYER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SWEENEY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 91 75 93 72 90 / 0 5 20 10 40 KBPT 91 75 92 72 89 / 0 5 20 10 30 KAEX 94 71 95 72 91 / 0 5 20 20 40 KLFT 92 72 93 72 91 / 0 5 20 10 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #515948 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:11 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 506 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE TRI STATE AREA SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING NEARBY DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... FOCUS OF SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH...WHERE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT JUST TO THE SW OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN RELATIVELY NEARBY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ROUGHLY ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE LIFT BEFORE SHIFTING SE OF US BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...OVERALL HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG THESE TWO SOURCES OF LIFT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO STAND A CHANCE OF A SHOWER DUE TO INSTABILITY ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE PIVOTING DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. CAPE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW WITH WEAK SHEAR...SO A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS PROBABLY JUST LIMITED TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MAV/NAM MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WERE VERY SIMILAR AND A BLEND OF THE TWO WAS USED. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... CHANCE OF RAINFALL DIMINISHES THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE TROUGH SHIFTING EVEN FARTHER SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST BEGINS TO DEEPEN A LITTLE...AND MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES LATE AT NIGHT...SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WITH THE COLD POOL STILL ALOFT AND THE MODELS SHOWING YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THE AREA...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AGAIN...WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES MORE TOWARDS THE WESTERN ZONES AS PER MODEL QPF OUTPUT AND SHORTWAVE POSITIONING. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH A LITTLE CAPE AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NAM AND MAV MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A BLEND USED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW AND RESULTANT OFFSHORE LOW ON VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING NE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THURSDAY THE RESULT WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGHING AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND SCT AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTMS DURING PEAK HEATING WED-THU. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATER ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH BETTER SURFACE INSTABILITY. ALSO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DECREASE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY DUE TO DECREASING COLD POOL INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. ISOLATED TO SCT SHRA ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON SHORTWAVE TIMING...PARTICULARLY TUES AND WED NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS ON FRI. THIS WILL LIMIT THE LAPSE RATES AND ALLOW FOR AN UPTICK IN TEMPS. PCPN COVERAGE LIMITED TO ISOLD. PEAK TIME AGAIN DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. H5 RIDGE AXIS ROTATES EWD INTO THE CWA FOR SAT PER THE GFS. ECMWF HOLDS BACK THE RIDGE. FCST KEPT DRY FOR NOW AS THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT...BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR ADJUSTMENT SHOULD THE PATTERN IN THE ECMWF VERIFY. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE FROM BELOW SEASONABLE TO ABOVE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DECREASING CLOUD/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EACH DAY AND RISING HEIGHTS. TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A DEVELOPING NE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH EVEN SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT AT KGON BY MID MORNING. GUSTS MAY WORK WEST INTO KISP BY AFT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CIGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND ARE FORECAST TO WORK INTO THE NYC TERMINALS BY 12Z. MVFR CIGS ALREADY PRESENT AT KLGA...KISP...KHPN...AND KSWF. THESE MAY BE IN AND OUT THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CIGS LOOKS TO HANG RIGHT AROUND 3000 FT THIS AFT...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AT 3500 TO 4000 FT. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN AROUND 06Z TUE. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: ONSET OF MVFR CIGS MAY VARY BY A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING. THIS AFT CIGS MAY BECOME VFR AT AROUND 3500 FT. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THIS AFT CIGS MAY BECOME VFR AT AROUND 3500 FT. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THIS AFT CIGS MAY BECOME VFR AT AROUND 3500 FT. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ONSET OF MVFR CIGS MAY VARY BY A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING. THIS AFT CIGS MAY BECOME VFR AT AROUND 3500 FT. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THIS AFT CIGS MAY BECOME VFR AT 3200 FT. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: THIS AFT CIGS MAY BECOME VFR AT 3200 FT. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR...BUT BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...MAINLY IN THE AFT/EARLY EVE HOURS. .FRIDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FOR WINDS AND SEAS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST 5 FT SEAS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE SCA THERE MIGHT NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS...A FAVORABLE ENE TO NE WIND FLOW SHOULD ALLOW SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND SOUND. HAVE THEREFORE PUT A SCA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL BELOW SCA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE AREA. && .HYDROLOGY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD AMOUNT UP TO A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL...BUT FOCUSED NEAR THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY EXPECTED. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL EXIST DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT HIGH TIDES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A MODERATE NE FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST. SIMILAR TIDAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TIDAL LEVELS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ009-010. NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-073-078-177. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ072-074-075-079>081-178-179. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ006. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350. && $$ |
| #515947 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:08 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 403 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... THE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING HOLDS THEN WEAKENS. UPPER LOW IN MEXICO WILL LIFT INTO TEXAS AND THEN MEANDER AROUND FOR 4 TO 8 DAYS. MODELS TRENDING THE UPPER LOW TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FARTHER ON THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO BECOME A BIGGER PLAYER IN FOCUSING PRECIPITATION OVER SETX. HIGH PW AIR WILL BE OVER THE REGION AS MOISTURE INCREASES TUESDAY-THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES START INCREASING TUESDAY AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT MAY BE AS WELL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT IT IS STILL TO EARLY TO GO IN THAT BIG YET BUT GETTING CLOSE. THE SAVING GRACE MAY BE THE LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE PROFILE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS STORMS MAY BE SLOW MOVING BUT SCATTERED WITH THE LIGHTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN KEYING IN ON THE PATTERN CHANGE TO A WET PERIOD WEDNESDAY THOUGH THEY DIFFER IN THE EVOLUTION AND DURATION BUT AT THE MOMENT AM LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWFS MORE PERSISTENT WET PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY THE 12TH. NO RECORD TEMPERATURES IN JEOPARDY TODAY OR TUESDAY BEFORE THE COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SET IN WED-SUN WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER BUT WARMER MINS. && .MARINE... SCEC HAS BEEN EXTENDED A FEW MORE HOURS AS WINDS STILL HANGING AROUND 17KTS WITH SEAS 3-4FT. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. LIGHT/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE UPPER TX COAST FROM THE NE. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TX WILL SUPPORT INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK AND RAIN CHANCES COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SMALL SCALE WX FEATURES WILL PROBABLY DICTATE WIND DIRECTIONS LATE IN THE WEEK. 39 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 97 72 95 71 93 / 10 10 20 20 40 HOUSTON (IAH) 95 74 94 73 92 / 10 10 20 20 40 GALVESTON (GLS) 90 78 88 79 86 / 10 10 20 30 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY... WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && $$ |
| #515946 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 450 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON... .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...LIKELY LINGERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT TODAY. IN SHORT...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL MAINLY ACROSS SC COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WIND WILL SHIFT S/W OF THE CHARLESTON AREA...INCLUDING ALL OF SE GA...AS A SEVERE MCS WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THAT AREA STARTING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION WITHIN 850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE SUPPORTED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. UPSTREAM...THE LEAD CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OF AN MCS WERE PUSHING E/SE ACROSS N GA...AND THIS ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH SC COUNTIES IN SOME FORM EARLY THIS MORNING. IN GENERAL...CLOUD TOPS WERE WARMING UPSTREAM...BUT THE LEADING MID LEVEL COLD POOL SHOULD PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE AT LEAST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SC AND PERHAPS INLAND COUNTIES OF SE GA THIS MORNING. UNLESS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OCCURS UPSTREAM THIS EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. FARTHER SOUTH...WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ACROSS N/INLAND COUNTIES WITHIN THE 850-700 MB THETA E RIDGE AND ALONG MCS OUTFLOW...THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS SE GA ALONG/S OF I-16 UNTIL LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. AFTER THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATE MORNING AS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES OVER AND UPSTREAM OF THE REGION. THE DETAILS REGARDING MID TO LATE MORNING PRECIPITATION REMAIN UNCLEAR AND WILL DEPEND OF THE IMPACT OF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...AND FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE REQUIRED. OF GREATEST INTEREST...GUIDANCE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMUM CREATED BY THE UPSTREAM MCS SWINGING SE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN MCS WHICH SHOULD ADVANCE THROUGH S/W COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...PROBABLY S/W OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION...ANY TIME FROM LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FEATURING MID LEVEL WINDS EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS AND HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT BY MORNING CONVECTION WILL SUPPORT EITHER MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS...A DOMINANT SEVERE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR SOME COMBINATION OF THESE SCENARIOS. IF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PARAMETERS OCCUR IN PHASE A SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE EVENT COULD OCCUR ACROSS S/W COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO OF NOTE...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE MCS COULD BEGIN TO BACK BUILD IN AN E-W BAND ACROSS SE GA FOR A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS... REDEVELOPMENT/TRAINING OF CONVECTION COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE TIMING...PATH AND INTENSITY OF ANY SEVERE MCS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...SO EXPECT FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... ALL FORECAST PARAMETERS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TONIGHT AND WILL DEPEND GREATLY THE IMPACT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE CERTAINLY IN ORDER AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHEST POPS JUSTIFIED ACROSS THE SOUTH. HOWEVER... PRECIPITATION COVERAGE COULD REMAIN SPARSE IN THE WAKE OF ORGANIZED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...OR ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD AS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT LIES OVER/NEAR THE AREA AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE AREA. GENERALLY HAVE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 WHERE THE GREATEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN LIKELY COOLING OFF SLIGHTLY WED/THU. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LIKELY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY...PUSHING THE SURFACE FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT/SUN. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH DAYBREAK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT KCHS VICINITY EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT AMENDMENTS AS REQUIRED TO ADDRESS NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS. THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE KCHS AREA THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD SHIFT S/W OF THIS TERMINAL BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT KSAV...THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATER...PERHAPS NOT UNTIL WELL AFTER 12Z...BUT GREATER IMPACTS FROM STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN APPEAR MORE LIKELY HERE AS A SEVERE MCS COULD PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINAL AT SOME POINT KATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TO MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. THEN...THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER IN THIS AREA BEYOND 00Z. OUTSIDE ANY THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. SMALL CHANCE OF PERIODIC SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THU AS THE FRONT LINGERS OVER/NEAR THE AREA. && .MARINE... SW WINDS 15-20 KT WILL VEER TO THE W AT SIMILAR SPEEDS THIS EVENING...THEN WILL VEER TOWARD THE NW AND WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FT...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FURTHER...THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER LOCAL WINDS AT ANY TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME WIND/WAVE SURGES DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THROUGH MID WEEK...PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES COULD PRODUCE MINOR SALT WATER FLOODING DURING EACH EVENING HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 730 PM AND 930 PM ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #515945 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 346 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATER TODAY OVER THE SERRIA MADRE. THE WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PUSH THIS ACTIVITY TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS LATE TONIGHT FROM HIDALGO WEST TO ZAPATA AS SOME CONVECTION COULD MAKE IT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. IN THE WAKE OF THE 500 MB LOW...MID LEVEL WEAKNESS ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STREAMER SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING AND SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO MENTION 20 POPS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE IN UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 100 OVER THE WEST AND HAVE LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE LONGER RANGE CMC/GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ALL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID LEVEL TROFFING BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF TX IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD AND STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH DAY 7. THE BIGGEST DISAGREEMENTS CROP UP IN THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL TROFFING AND THE DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MOVING IN WITH THE TROFFING. THE GFS IS THE DRIEST OF THE THREE MODELS WITH THE MOST EASTWARD PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHILE THE ECMWF AND THE CMC BOTH ADVERTISE A DEEPER MOISTURE POOL CLOSER TO DEEP SOUTH TX WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LOCATED CLOSER TO THE BRO CWA AND THE TX COASTLINE. AT THIS POINT IN TIME AM IN SOMEWHAT OF A DILEMMA FOR WHICH MODELS TO FOLLOW. ON ONE HAND THE ECMWF AND CMC GUIDANCE ARE BOTH TRENDING WETTER WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN STUBBORN IN TRENDING DRIER OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WETTER AND DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WILL MAINTAIN 20 % POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE POPS. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO CLOSE TO MEX MOS TEMP GUIDANCE FOR MINS AND WILL GO ABOVE MEX MOS NUMBERS FOR MAX TEMPS THROUGH THUR AND WILL THEN GO CLOSER TO THE MEX GUIDANCE LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE BUILDING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LOWER THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE TEMPS TO COOL A FEW DEGREES. WILL THEN START TO WARM UP TEMPS ONCE AGAIN ON AND AFTER SUNDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT TO THE EAST AWAY FROM TX AND ALLOWS RIDGING TO BUILD BACK IN PLACE. && .MARINE /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 17 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 3.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 0250 CDT/0750 UTC. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A FAIRLY DISORGANIZED PGF OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE GULF SWELLS THROUGH FRIDAY. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 78 92 77 / 10 10 20 10 BROWNSVILLE 94 78 94 77 / 10 10 20 10 HARLINGEN 95 76 96 75 / 10 10 20 10 MCALLEN 96 78 98 76 / 10 20 20 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 77 99 76 / 10 20 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 79 89 79 / 10 20 20 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #515942 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 451 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2012 ...Slight risk of severe storms across portions of southwest and south-central Georgia this afternoon into tonight with the threat continuing and expanding in area on Tuesday... .SYNOPSIS... An active short term period is coming up with multiple chances of severe storms across the forecast area. For today, the threat area appears to be limited to the northern half of the forecast area late this afternoon into the first part of the overnight hours. In fact, many areas across northwest Florida will remain completely dry today. On Tuesday, the threat area expands to include the entire forecast area and there is a better chance of seeing rainfall across most of the area. We also cannot yet rule out the potential for a few severe storms on Wednesday, but that is highly uncertain at this point. The main threats for all three days are damaging straight line winds and large hail. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) The culprit for all of these threats of severe storms is west to northwest flow aloft with upper level shortwaves moving southeast into the area as well as a surface cold front. This northwest flow synoptic pattern is a known producer of severe weather in this part of the country during the summertime. Steep mid-level lapse rates and slightly drier air aloft from the plains get advected eastward, resulting in an unstable air mass capable of producing severe storms when an upper level shortwave comes along to provide the necessary lift. A surface cold front will also move into the area and provide an additional boundary for storms to focus on. For today, the hi-resolution model consensus indicates that most of southern part of the area will actually remain dry. However, the northern portions of the forecast area are threatened by severe storms moving in from the north this afternoon as the first upper level shortwave grazes the area. The 00z run of our local WRF was very aggressive in pushing a large MCS through the forecast area all the way down into northern Florida. While this is not impossible, the other hi-res models from NCEP are not quite that aggressive, although they all do show some kind of MCS clipping at least northern portions of southwest and south-central Georgia. This lines up well with the 06z SPC Day 1 outlook. On Tuesday, another upper level shortwave is forecast to impact the area, and the surface cold front will be moving into the area by that time. This results in a better chance of more widespread convection across the entire forecast area, some of which could be severe. The severe threat will be modulated in part by how convection from overnight on Monday plays into Tuesday. If there is a lot of convection on Monday night into Tuesday morning, then the overall severe threat may be less on Tuesday due to less heating and destabilization. However, if sufficient heating can occur on Tuesday, then SBCAPE values could rise into the 3000 j/kg range in parts of the area, and with deep layer shear values around 30 knots and a focus for convection (the cold front), Tuesday could end up being quite an active day indeed. On Wednesday, confidence is low on how things will play out due to uncertainty with how convection on Tuesday will impact the air mass. However, with a frontal boundary still in the area, a decent coverage convection is expected and the severe threat may not be zero depending on how things play out on Tuesday. .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Models seem to have come into somewhat better agreement. The large scale longwave period begins highlighted by a deep neutral trough over western U.S and a positively tilted trough over the eastern U.S. The eastern trough has shown little recent progression due to blocky upper pattern with ridge in Cntrl Conus and in Atlc east of trough. At the surface, a surface wave is riding east located just east of sc/ga coast with stalled frontal boundary wsw across gulf coast/gulf of Mex line to TX and is providing a moist and unstable local airmass. Wednesday night begins with a W-E oriented trough associated with the low that currently resides over the Eastern U.S., which by this time will be located well out into the Atlantic. This trof will keep clouds and rain chances in the forecast, and max temps in the upper 80s to low 90s. Thursday tropical moisture from the Gulf begins to push in and enhance chances of locally heavy rainfall especially in the panhandle and FL big bend. As the trough pushes offshore and into the coastal areas by Friday, drier air will filter in from a ridge diving out of the Ohio River Valley. Since the most recent Euro, which previously left the trof hanging in the region for the weekend, has begun to trend more towards the GFS solution, we have decided to knock down the weekend PoPs a bit. Both the Euro and GFS agree on a cut off low approaching the area from the west at the end of the extended term, so PoPs have been bumped up in the western panhandle and southern Alabama for Monday. With a surface high positioned east of the area, generally clearer skies, and southerly flow, we will begin trending towards warmer temps with highs into the mid 90s and lows near 70. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected throughout most of the area overnight. Vis guidance suggests that our current southerly flow will bring the possibility of reduced ceilings and vis in the western portion of our region, therefore we have gone with MVFR for DHN and ECP for the pre-dawn hours. A Thunderstorm complex could make its way through the GA counties beginning in the late afternoon into evening hours, so we have gone with VCTS wording. Ceilings and fog reductions to MVFR or worse are possible by early Tue morning. && .MARINE... Winds will start to increase today with a cold front nearing the waters by Tuesday. Cautionary conditions are expected at times through Tuesday night, and winds could briefly reach low end advisory levels on Tuesday. Unsettled conditions are expected through the remainder of the week with showers and thunderstorms over the marine area. && .FIRE WEATHER... The air mass across the region will begin to moisten today. However, rh values are expected to drop below 35 percent for 2 to 3 hours across portions of the inland Florida panhandle. Increasing winds across this area will also boost dispersion values above 75 and ERC values will remain above 35. Therefore a red flag warning was issued to replace the fire weather watch that was in effect. Elsewhere where rh values will remain above 35 percent so the fire weather watch was cancelled. Humidity values are forecast to remain well above 35 percent on Tuesday and into the middle of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 95 72 93 73 89 / 10 30 70 50 60 Panama City 90 76 90 75 88 / 10 30 60 50 60 Dothan 95 73 93 73 91 / 40 40 60 40 60 Albany 92 72 91 71 91 / 50 40 60 40 50 Valdosta 93 71 90 71 89 / 40 30 70 40 60 Cross City 90 74 90 74 89 / 10 20 60 40 50 Apalachicola 88 76 89 75 86 / 0 20 60 40 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...None. FL...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 5 PM CDT this afternoon for Holmes- Inland Walton-Jackson. GM...None. && $$ |
| #515941 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 336 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWESTWARD TO A LOW IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING OVER THE GULF WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TRIGGERING THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH. A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM... SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...CURRENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EFFECTIVELY BECOMES A COLD FRONT AND NEARS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH INHERITED FORECAST. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. 35 && .LONG TERM... EASTERN UPPER TROF KEEPS GENERAL UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO WEDNESDAY. TROF EVENTUALLY SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WITH TEMPORARY RIDGING ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY DURING THE EXTENDED. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN UPPER WEAKNESS/LOW OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GFS HAS BEEN HIGHLY INCONSISTENT WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHILE ECMWF HAS HAD A BETTER LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY. WILL TREND TOWARD WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION...AND WE MAY NEED TO RAISE RAIN CHANCES FROM CURRENT FORECAST LEVELS IF THAT SOLUTION REMAINS THE PREFERRED ONE. 35 && .AVIATION... PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD....AROUND 10-12Z ON TUESDAY. KMCB AND KHUM WILL BE MOST PRONE TO ANY FOG FORMATION...AS A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. FORTUNATELY...ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE. 32 && .MARINE... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE A COASTAL JET DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUNDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. FOR A FEW HOURS EACH NIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS...AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 3 FEET. THIS PHENOMENON WILL DISSIPATE BY DAYBREAK...WITH A MORE GENERAL 10 TO 15 KNOT WIND EXPECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS IMPACTED BY THIS NOCTURNAL COASTAL JET...WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST COMPONENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND STALLS. HOWEVER...WITH A LACK OF STRONG COLD OR DRY AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 2 FEET. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD PUSH SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS BY SATURDAY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET. 32 && .DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...GREEN. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...NONE. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 91 70 90 70 / 10 10 30 30 BTR 92 73 92 74 / 10 10 20 30 ASD 91 72 92 75 / 10 10 20 30 MSY 90 75 90 76 / 10 10 20 30 GPT 90 76 91 76 / 10 10 20 30 PQL 90 72 91 73 / 10 10 20 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #515940 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 431 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... .CURRENTLY... A VERY QUIET EARLY JUNE NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH RADAR DETECTING NO PRECIPITATION IN THE SERVICE AREA. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S AT SHELTERED INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ELSEWHERE. WINDS ARE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ALOFT...THE KEYS LIE UNDERNEATH BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN A LONGWAVE TROUGH ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND SEABOARD...AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE KEYS REMAIN WITHIN A RATHER SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT...WITH ESTIMATED PWATS RANGING FROM NEAR 2 INCHES IN THE OUTER STRAITS TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES IN THE GULF WATERS. .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE ONLY SLOWLY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL LOWER/MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING IN PLACE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A NORTHWESTWARD EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS A WEAK TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND MID LATITUDE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY INFILTRATE BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH LITTLE LARGE SCALE LIFT EVIDENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...MESOSCALE PROCESSES WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS. FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A REVERSE CLOUD LINE TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LIMIT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WILL MAINTAIN DIME POPS. THE LIGHT FLOW REGIME CONTINUES TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A BIT MORE MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE STRAITS MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS RATHER THAN THE COMPLETE LACK OF ACTIVITY WE ARE SEEING CURRENTLY...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 PERCENT POPS. TUESDAY...CONTINUED WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A REVERSE CLOUD LINE TO DEVELOP AGAIN...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING THAT RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ABOVE THE LCL COULD SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. WILL KEEP THE EXISTING LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED LATER ON IF GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY DRY POCKET MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER COVERAGE TO ISOLATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOWER/MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGE TO TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL ERODE THE LOWER/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA...AND WILL DRAW SOME ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY ZONE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT WITH RATHER BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE ACROSS OUR REGION WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE QUITE EASILY ALONG CUBAN OUTFLOWS AND ANY OTHER BOUNDARIES THAT MAY BE PRESENT. WILL NUDGE POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD ACROSS FLORIDA DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH THE DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .MARINE... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO GENTLE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE KEYS WATERS. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KEY WEST AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. JUST A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND AT THE TERMINALS WITH BASES AOA FL020-025. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KEY WEST 88 79 88 79 / 10 20 30 20 MARATHON 90 79 90 79 / 10 20 30 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #515939 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 430 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES...AS LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND DEEPENS OVER THE WATERS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY MID TO LATE WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LOOKING TO BE A BREEZY...WET...AND COOL DAY. WRAP AROUND WARM CONVEYOR BELT WITHIN THE BETTER TROWAL/DEFORMATION AXIS WILL LEND TO INCREASING WIDESPREAD RAINS N TO S /THE WAVE IS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST WSR-88D RADAR RETURNS ACROSS ME/. WHILE EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINS ARE LIKELY...PRIMARILY AN OVERALL LIGHT RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED...MORESO FOR THE ERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA. TO THE W...THE RGN WILL SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY AS THE BETTER LIFT WILL BE IN PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW...TO WHICH IS E AND OFFSHORE PER WRF/CANADIAN/ECMWF SOLNS. EVALUATING THE AGREEMENT AMONGST AFOREMENTIONED SOLNS...THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF A NELY 35 KT LLJ /H925/ BUILDING SWD ACROSS ERN MA TOWARDS DUSK /THE WRF-NMM THE MOST ROBUST WITH 40-45 KT/. EXPECTING VERY GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND E OF THE 495 BELTWAY. FREQUENT 40 KT GUSTS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 27 KTS ALONG THE ERN SHORELINE OUT ACROSS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS IS PLAUSIBLE. WANT TO LEAN AGAINST THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE DURING SUCH AN ANOMALOUS SITUATION AND LEAN TOWARDS MODEL DERIVED SFC WINDS. CONSIDERING THIS POINT AND THE FACT THAT TREES ARE FULLY LEAFED... AM OF THE OPINION THAT A WIND ADV IS WARRANTED FOR THE E SHORES AND ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. AND FINALLY...WHILE AFTN TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER /10.6 FT FOR BOSTON/...CONSIDERING A 1.3 FT SURGE WHICH OCCURRED THE NIGHT PRIOR AND CONTINUED STRONG NELY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG ERN SHORELINES OF MA THIS AFTN. WILL HOIST A COASTAL FLOOD ADV FOR THE MIDDAY PD. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... SYNOPTIC SITUATION... SFC LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK GRADUALLY SLINKING SEWD FURTHER AWAY FROM SHORE...PUSHED MORESO BY HIGH PRES BUILDING S OUT OF CANADA AND ROUNDING THE STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN /NEGATIVE NAO/ ACROSS THE N ATLANTIC. A TROWAL/DEFORMATION AXIS COLLOCATED WITH THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND STRATIFORM RAINS /EASILY DISCERNABLE PRESENTLY IN THE WV IMAGERY/ SWEEPS S ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY... COLLOCATED WITH AN AXIS OF STRONG NELY BOUNDARY LYR FLOW OF 30 TO 35 MPH. WINDS SHOULD RELAX INTO MONDAY NIGHT YET CONTINUALLY DRAW COOLER AIR SWD. THE NEARLY STACKED LOW PRES DOES NOT WOBBLE FAR INTO THE MIDWEEK PD...ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND A CONTINUED COOL MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE RGN LIKELY RESULTING IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN WX FOR TUESDAY. TONIGHT... AS THE SFC LOW PIVOTS SEWD...THE BETTER TROWAL/DEFORMATION AXIS PRESSES OFFSHORE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINS TO DIMINISH. BUT DURING THE INITIAL PD THE STRONGEST OF LOW-LVL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED WITH A NELY 35 KT LLJ /H925/ PERSISTING ACROSS THE ERN SHORES AND THE CAPE AS LATE AS EARLY MORNING HRS. ONCE AGAIN...THE WRF-NMM MDL FCST IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH 40-45 KTS AT H925. WIND ADV WILL CONTINUE INTO 6Z ACCORDINGLY. IN ADDITION...ASTRO TIDES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ONE TO TWO TENTHS HIGHER...AND WITH THE LONG PREVAILING NELY FLOW /THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL CENTER AROUND DUSK WITH H925 FLOW...2-3 KFT AGL...AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH/ SWELL AND HIGH SURF WILL BE BUILT UP ALONG THE ERN SHORES OF MA. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE AS LIKELY A SIMILAR IF NOT GREATER IMPACT ALONG SHORELINE COMMUNITIES WILL BE OBSERVED AS WAS THE CASE SUNDAY NIGHT /SEE LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORT FOR LAST NIGHTS COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS/. TUESDAY... MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL SE OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND STRONGER LOW-LVL FLOW. YET NEVERTHELESS A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL. A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND THE STRONG ANGLE OF THE SUN SHOULD PROMOTE LOW-LVL MIXING AND DIURNAL INVIGORATION OF SCTD SHOWERS AND PSBL THUNDERSTORMS /ALBEIT INSTABILITY IS WEAK/. CHC POPS WARRANTED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THU * COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING LATE WEEK * PATTERN CHANGE POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK MODEL PREFERENCES... 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS NA THIS PERIOD...WHICH FEATURES A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED OCEAN CYCLONE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AT 00Z WED...THEN SLOWLY DRIFTING SEAWARD TO NEWFOUNDLAND BY FRI. BY LATE FRI INTO SAT MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER THE 12Z ECENS AND THE 00Z UKMET LEND SOME SUPPORT TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI INTO SAT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS CHANCE POPS SO WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. CPC ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CURRENT HIGHLY ANOMALOUS NEGATIVE NAO /INDEX -2/ BEGINS TO TREND TOWARD ZERO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUGGEST A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REDEVELOPING FROM THE MID ATLC INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD FAVOR A TREND TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER INTO NEW ENGLAND. STAY TUNED! SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS... TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCEAN STORM SLOWLY DRIFT INTO ATLC CANADA. THUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT/COMMA HEAD RAINS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. THEREFORE NOT AS WET OR COOL AS MON AND TUE. HOWEVER GIVEN CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD POOL ALOFT SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE. SO BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT. THURSDAY... ALL MODEL GUID SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN...PROMOTING BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. BUT CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ALONG WITH COLD POOL ALOFT. SO MORE OF THE SAME...SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS. MARITIME AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO MODIFY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFT TO THE SSW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPS GIVEN STRONG JUNE SUN. THIS SOLAR HEATING WILL ALSO RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND -18C TO -20C! THUS LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WITH A LOW PROB OF SMALL HAIL. FRIDAY/SAT... AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOME TIMING AND MAGNITUDE DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND PRESERVE CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONCE AGAIN NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT. SUNDAY... ABOVE AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT ON MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND BEING REPLACED BY HEIGHT RISES AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REDEVELOPS FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER. GIVEN THE WARMING TEMPS ALOFT FELT CONFIDENT TO LEAVE FORECAST DRY. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN INCREASES ACROSS S NH AND N MA INTO THE MORNING PD...SPREADING SWD THRU THE DAY /LIKELY INTERMITTENT VSBY IMPACTS...BUT UNDERLYING UNCERTAINTY SO PREVAILED VFR VSBYS/. N/NELY FLOW CONTINUES...STRONGER ALONG THE ERN SHORE. FASTEST FLOW ANTICIPATED AROUND DUSK THIS EVNG WITH NELY GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. N/NE WINDS WEAKENING INTO TUE BUT REMAINING BRISK /STRONGEST ALONG THE E SHORE/. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TUE...LIKELY INVIGORATING RENEWED WIDESPREAD SHOWERY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS...DISSIPATING TOWARDS EVNG. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS. RAINS BUILDING S INTO THE MORNING PD WITH STRONG NELY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS /PSBLY STRONGER/. GUSTS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THE EVNG PD. INTERMITTENT VSBY IMPACTS DUE TO -RA EXPECTED...YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS. RAINS BUILDING S INTO THE MID-MORNING INTO MIDDAY PD. STRONG NLY FLOW THRU THE DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS LIKELY LINGERING INTO THE EVNG PD. INTERMITTENT VSBY IMPACTS DUE TO -RA EXPECTED...YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... TUE NIGHT/WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN. WINDS SLACKEN AND BECOME LGT/VRB. CIGS MAY LIFT TO VFR DURING WED AFTN. THU/FRI...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR VFR. LOW RISK OF AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. && .MARINE... EASTERN COASTAL WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WILL SEE INCREASING NELY FLOW INTO THIS EVNG WITH GALE FORCE WINDS /GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE PSBL OVER STELLWAGEN BANK/. SEAS INCREASING 10-12 FT ALONG THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SEAS AROUND 8 FT OUTSIDE THE INNER HARBORS AND BAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THRU THE EVNG PD INTO TUESDAY. LIKELY VSBY IMPACTS. SOUTHERN WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE GALES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR NANTUCKET BAY AND FOR THE OUTER WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO THE EVNG PD. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT ADV IN EFFECT FOR WINDS AROUND 25 KTS BUT REMAINING BELOW GALE FORCE. SEAS OF 6-8 FT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE S OUTER WATERS /BUILDING LESSER SO DUE TO TERRAIN SHIELDING THE WATERS FROM FASTER NELY FLOW/. WIDESPREAD RAIN ANTICIPATED AND LIKELY LEADING TO VSBY IMPACTS. OUTLOOK...TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI... TUE NGT/WED... GALE CENTER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SEAWARD AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. WINDS SLACKEN BUT NE SWELLS PERSIST. VSBY MAY BE POOR IN MORNING FOG AND DRIZZLE. THU/FRI... WEAK HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND IMPROVING VSBY. LIGHT WINDS BUT NE SWELLS MAY LINGER. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... * COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AROUND NOON ALONG THE EAST COAST * COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST AROUND NOON... GALES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE ERN WATERS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PRES CENTER NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WHILE MIDDAY TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER ALONG THE E SHORE /10.6 FT AT BOSTON HARBOR/ THE PERSISTENT NELY FLOW WILL LIKELY LEND TO HIGH SURF AND SURGE /LAST EVNGS SURGE WAS 1.3 FT/. THAT BEING THE CASE...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SPLASHOVER AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE ERN SHORELINES OF MA AND THUS A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT. TONIGHT... WITH CONTINUING TRENDS OF STRONG NELY FLOW /THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL CENTER AROUND DUSK WITH ONSHORE GALE FORCE WINDS/... HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES /12.3 FT AT BOSTON HARBOR/ AND AN ANTICIPATED SURGE OF 1.4 FT...AND CONSIDERING LOCAL STORM REPORTS GATHERED ALONG THE E SHORELINE LAST NIGHT...COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE AS LIKELY SIMILAR IF NOT GREATER IMPACTS ALONG ERN SHORELINE COMMUNITIES ARE ANTICIPATED. HIGH SURF IS ALSO EXPECTED WHICH WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. PLEASE MONITOR ANY UPDATED FORECASTS FOR NEW INFORMATION TOWARD THIS THREAT. TUE NIGHT... MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY AGAIN TUE NIGHT WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. WHILE THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER E WITH TIME...CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THREAT. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022. WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007. WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ019. WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ022-024. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-233>235- 237-256. GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ236. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251. GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254-255. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL |
| #515938 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:27 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 415 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND COOL TEMPERATURES AS LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND DEEPENS OVER THE WATERS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND DIURNAL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING SOMEWHAT AS ONSHORE WINDS DISSIPATE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE BUT SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LOOKING TO BE A BREEZY...WET...AND COOL DAY. WRAP AROUND WARM CONVEYOR BELT WITHIN THE BETTER TROWAL/DEFORMATION AXIS WILL LEND TO INCREASING WIDESPREAD RAINS N TO S /THE WAVE IS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST WSR-88D RADAR RETURNS ACROSS ME/. WHILE EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINS ARE LIKELY...PRIMARILY AN OVERALL LIGHT RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED...MORESO FOR THE ERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA. TO THE W...THE RGN WILL SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY AS THE BETTER LIFT WILL BE IN PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW...TO WHICH IS E AND OFFSHORE PER WRF/CANADIAN/ECMWF SOLNS. EVALUATING THE AGREEMENT AMONGST AFOREMENTIONED SOLNS...THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF A NELY 35 KT LLJ /H925/ BUILDING SWD ACROSS ERN MA TOWARDS DUSK /THE WRF-NMM THE MOST ROBUST WITH 40-45 KT/. EXPECTING VERY GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND E OF THE 495 BELTWAY. FREQUENT 40 KT GUSTS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 27 KTS ALONG THE ERN SHORELINE OUT ACROSS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS IS PLAUSIBLE. WANT TO LEAN AGAINST THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE DURING SUCH AN ANOMALOUS SITUATION AND LEAN TOWARDS MODEL DERIVED SFC WINDS. CONSIDERING THIS POINT AND THE FACT THAT TREES ARE FULLY LEAFED... AM OF THE OPINION THAT A WIND ADV IS WARRANTED FOR THE E SHORES AND ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. AND FINALLY...WHILE AFTN TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER /10.6 FT FOR BOSTON/...CONSIDERING A 1.3 FT SURGE WHICH OCCURRED THE NIGHT PRIOR AND CONTINUED STRONG NELY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG ERN SHORELINES OF MA THIS AFTN. WILL HOIST A COASTAL FLOOD ADV FOR THE MIDDAY PD. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... SYNOPTIC SITUATION... SFC LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK GRADUALLY SLINKING SEWD FURTHER AWAY FROM SHORE...PUSHED MORESO BY HIGH PRES BUILDING S OUT OF CANADA AND ROUNDING THE STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN /NEGATIVE NAO/ ACROSS THE N ATLANTIC. A TROWAL/DEFORMATION AXIS COLLOCATED WITH THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND STRATIFORM RAINS /EASILY DISCERNABLE PRESENTLY IN THE WV IMAGERY/ SWEEPS S ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY... COLLOCATED WITH AN AXIS OF STRONG NELY BOUNDARY LYR FLOW OF 30 TO 35 MPH. WINDS SHOULD RELAX INTO MONDAY NIGHT YET CONTINUALLY DRAW COOLER AIR SWD. THE NEARLY STACKED LOW PRES DOES NOT WOBBLE FAR INTO THE MIDWEEK PD...ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND A CONTINUED COOL MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE RGN LIKELY RESULTING IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN WX FOR TUESDAY. TONIGHT... AS THE SFC LOW PIVOTS SEWD...THE BETTER TROWAL/DEFORMATION AXIS PRESSES OFFSHORE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINS TO DIMINISH. BUT DURING THE INITIAL PD THE STRONGEST OF LOW-LVL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED WITH A NELY 35 KT LLJ /H925/ PERSISTING ACROSS THE ERN SHORES AND THE CAPE AS LATE AS EARLY MORNING HRS. ONCE AGAIN...THE WRF-NMM MDL FCST IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH 40-45 KTS AT H925. WIND ADV WILL CONTINUE INTO 6Z ACCORDINGLY. IN ADDITION...ASTRO TIDES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ONE TO TWO TENTHS HIGHER...AND WITH THE LONG PREVAILING NELY FLOW /THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL CENTER AROUND DUSK WITH H925 FLOW...2-3 KFT AGL...AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH/ SWELL AND HIGH SURF WILL BE BUILT UP ALONG THE ERN SHORES OF MA. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE AS LIKELY A SIMILAR IF NOT GREATER IMPACT ALONG SHORELINE COMMUNITIES WILL BE OBSERVED AS WAS THE CASE SUNDAY NIGHT /SEE LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORT FOR LAST NIGHTS COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS/. TUESDAY... MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL SE OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND STRONGER LOW-LVL FLOW. YET NEVERTHELESS A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL. A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND THE STRONG ANGLE OF THE SUN SHOULD PROMOTE LOW-LVL MIXING AND DIURNAL INVIGORATION OF SCTD SHOWERS AND PSBL THUNDERSTORMS /ALBEIT INSTABILITY IS WEAK/. CHC POPS WARRANTED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... *UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER THIS WEEK ESPECIALLY TUE/WED *SHOWERY WEATHER AT TIMES THIS WEEK BUT NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT DETAILS... TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGHLY ANOMALOUS OCEAN STORM AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS A TIMES. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT SO WILL JUST CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHILE TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT FROM TUE/WED...HIGHS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS...SO WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT OVER THIS TIME. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLES IN LIFTING THE NORTHEAST TROUGH OUT FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER ECMWF SOLUTION AS TROUGH MAY BE SLOWER TO LIFT OUT. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. WILL ALSO KEEP THE FORECAST GENERALLY DRY AT THIS POINT AS HEIGHT FIELDS SHOULD RISE AT LEAST SOME...LOWERING THE RISK FOR ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN INCREASES ACROSS S NH AND N MA INTO THE MORNING PD...SPREADING SWD THRU THE DAY /LIKELY INTERMITTENT VSBY IMPACTS...BUT UNDERLYING UNCERTAINTY SO PREVAILED VFR VSBYS/. N/NELY FLOW CONTINUES...STRONGER ALONG THE ERN SHORE. FASTEST FLOW ANTICIPATED AROUND DUSK THIS EVNG WITH NELY GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. N/NE WINDS WEAKENING INTO TUE BUT REMAINING BRISK /STRONGEST ALONG THE E SHORE/. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TUE...LIKELY INVIGORATING RENEWED WIDESPREAD SHOWERY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS...DISSIPATING TOWARDS EVNG. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS. RAINS BUILDING S INTO THE MORNING PD WITH STRONG NELY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS /PSBLY STRONGER/. GUSTS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THE EVNG PD. INTERMITTENT VSBY IMPACTS DUE TO -RA EXPECTED...YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS. RAINS BUILDING S INTO THE MID-MORNING INTO MIDDAY PD. STRONG NLY FLOW THRU THE DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS LIKELY LINGERING INTO THE EVNG PD. INTERMITTENT VSBY IMPACTS DUE TO -RA EXPECTED...YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE MIXED WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COAST ON TUE SHOULD DIMINISH SOME BY WED. THU/FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS. && .MARINE... EASTERN COASTAL WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WILL SEE INCREASING NELY FLOW INTO THIS EVNG WITH GALE FORCE WINDS /GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE PSBL OVER STELLWAGEN BANK/. SEAS INCREASING 10-12 FT ALONG THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SEAS AROUND 8 FT OUTSIDE THE INNER HARBORS AND BAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THRU THE EVNG PD INTO TUESDAY. LIKELY VSBY IMPACTS. SOUTHERN WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE GALES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR NANTUCKET BAY AND FOR THE OUTER WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO THE EVNG PD. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT ADV IN EFFECT FOR WINDS AROUND 25 KTS BUT REMAINING BELOW GALE FORCE. SEAS OF 6-8 FT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE S OUTER WATERS /BUILDING LESSER SO DUE TO TERRAIN SHIELDING THE WATERS FROM FASTER NELY FLOW/. WIDESPREAD RAIN ANTICIPATED AND LIKELY LEADING TO VSBY IMPACTS. OUTLOOK...WED THROUGH FRI... WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE MIXED WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COAST ON TUE SHOULD DIMINISH SOME BY WED. THU/FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... * COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AROUND NOON ALONG THE EAST COAST * COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST AROUND NOON... GALES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE ERN WATERS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PRES CENTER NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WHILE MIDDAY TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER ALONG THE E SHORE /10.6 FT AT BOSTON HARBOR/ THE PERSISTENT NELY FLOW WILL LIKELY LEND TO HIGH SURF AND SURGE /LAST EVNGS SURGE WAS 1.3 FT/. THAT BEING THE CASE...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SPLASHOVER AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE ERN SHORELINES OF MA AND THUS A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT. TONIGHT... WITH CONTINUING TRENDS OF STRONG NELY FLOW /THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL CENTER AROUND DUSK WITH ONSHORE GALE FORCE WINDS/... HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES /12.3 FT AT BOSTON HARBOR/ AND AN ANTICIPATED SURGE OF 1.4 FT...AND CONSIDERING LOCAL STORM REPORTS GATHERED ALONG THE E SHORELINE LAST NIGHT...COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE AS LIKELY SIMILAR IF NOT GREATER IMPACTS ALONG ERN SHORELINE COMMUNITIES ARE ANTICIPATED. HIGH SURF IS ALSO EXPECTED WHICH WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. PLEASE MONITOR ANY UPDATED FORECASTS FOR NEW INFORMATION TOWARD THIS THREAT. TUE NIGHT... MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY AGAIN TUE NIGHT WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. WHILE THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER E WITH TIME...CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THREAT. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236. GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-251. && $$ |
| #515937 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:26 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 415 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A RATHER POORLY DEFINED SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OR REFORM TO OUR SOUTH AND RESULT IN NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OVER THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LACK OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TRIGGERS SHOULD LIMIT CHANCES FOR PCPN OVER THE AREA. HAVE LINED UP WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND KEPT POPS AT 14 PERCENT OR LESS EXCEPT IN THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE WHERE THERE WILL BE 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN NECK AND VIRGINIA LOWER EASTERN SHORE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FROM 12-14C AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE UPPER 70S ON THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD AIR DAMMING OVER THE PIEDMONT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND A STABILIZING OF THE LOWER LAYERS. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE AND EARLIER FORECASTS AS A RESULT. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LIFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PRODUCE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTN AND HAVE 30 POPS AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES AT 850 WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER BY TUESDAY MORNING AND FOR REASONS MENTIONED EARLIER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 60S ON THE EASTERN SHORE TO THE LOWER 70S OVER INLAND AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR BUT PROBABLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RUN IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT AS PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MOST NOTABLE IS THE AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST (JUST AHEAD OF THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH) ON THURSDAY. AS A COMPARISON...THE 12Z GFS MODEL RUN YESTERDAY HAD THE LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE AKQ CWA ON WEDNESDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAD ROUGHLY THE SAME SOLUTION OCCURRING BUT ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE FA...THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO RELEASE ITS GRIP ON THE NORTHEAST CONUS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING TREND DURING THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR SBY HAS AVOIDED THE TERMINAL TO THIS POINT...AND THE FINAL AREA OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO TRACK ACROSS DE AND REMAIN NORTH OF THE SITE. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GUSTY NW WIND. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON SHOULD BE 10-15KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT. THE WIND SHIFTS TO N AND THEN NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST SOME LOWER CIGS (MVFR) ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT SBY WITH NE FLOW. A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN US MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE. && .MARINE... A W WIND AROUND 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN SHIFTS TO NE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S IN THE BAY AND RIVERS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ACTUALLY CREATE DECENT MIXING OVER THE WATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. HENCE SCA FLAGS WILL BE RAISED BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE RIVERS AND N-S OVER THE BAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LOW END SCA (18-20KT)...BUT A BRIEF STRONGER SURGE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AN SCA WILL ALSO BE RAISED FOR THE SOUND BEGINNING THIS EVENING. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT A SECONDARY SURGE IS LIKELY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HENCE ALL THE SCA WILL RUN THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RIVERS EXCLUDING THE LOWER JAMES. NE FLOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH SEAS TO 5FT OR GREATER LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY. SCA FLAGS FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT 5FT SEAS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SEAS REMAINING AROUND 3-4FT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A FULL MOON AND ONSHORE FLOW. THE LATEST EXTRATROPICAL GUIDANCE HAS OCEAN CITY INLET EXCEEDING THE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING STAGE DURING THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE. THE PERFORMANCE OF THE GUIDANCE WILL BE MONITORED FOR THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE BEFORE ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. WATER LEVELS DURING TUESDAY EVENINGS HIGH TIDE WILL BE AROUND MINOR STAGE FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING HIGH TIDE TUESDAY EVENING BASED ON THE LATEST MDL GUIDANCE. && .CLIMATE... SPRING 2012 WILL GO DOWN IN THE RECORD BOOKS AS THE WARMEST ON RECORD FOR ALL 3 MAJOR CLIMATE SITES. AVG TEMPERATURE DATA FOR SPRING (MAR-MAY) 2012 IS LISTED BELOW... RICHMOND....62.4 F (PREVIOUS WARMEST HAD BEEN 61.4 F IN 2010) NORFOLK.....63.4 F (PREVIOUS WARMEST HAD BEEN 62.7 F IN 1945) SALISBURY...59.8 F (PREVIOUS WARMEST HAD BEEN 59.7 F IN 1945) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ635>637. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654- 656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LSA |
| #515936 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:24 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 420 AM AST MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS...A FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION TODAY. && .DISCUSSION...AN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...AS A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT...CONTINUE TO EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND LOCAL EFFECTS...STILL EXPECT AN ISOLATED LATE EVENING OR EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWER...FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS PATTERN OF EARLY MORNING/AFTERNOON SHOWERS IS ESPECIALLY EXPECTED NEXT THURSDAY DUE TO A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE SAHARAN AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE HAZY CONDS ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. VISIBILITIES ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TO RANGE BTW 6 TO 8 SM. TJSJ 04/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 20K FEET...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT. && .MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS OF UP TO 15 KNOTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 90 76 90 78 / 0 0 10 20 STT 87 79 87 79 / 0 0 0 30 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #515935 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:23 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 901 PM EDT Sun Jun 3 2012 .SYNOPSIS...Amplified upper pattern is in place across the CONUS with an upper low and trough in place along the eastern seaboard, and a ridge centered over the High Plains. A short-wave exiting the central plains is helping kick off scattered thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi valley this evening. The previous MCS that moved southeast across northern and central Al dissipated before reaching W. Central GA and will not impact the local forecast area. Surface analysis shows high pressure centered over South Florida and ridging northwestward into the central and western Gulf of Mexico. && .NEAR TERM (Tonight)... With the first MCS now dissipated and the one well off to the northwest too far away to impact us until at least tomorrow, the overnight period should be quiet. No significant updates to the forecast/grids are necessary. && .MARINE (Tonight through Friday)... Winds will remain light this evening over the marine area but begin to increase on Monday as a cold front nears the waters on Tuesday. Cautionary conditions will be possible at times into Tuesday night. Unsettled conditions are expected through the remainder of the week with showers and thunderstorms over the marine area. && .AVIATION (through 00Z Tuesday)... VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the overnight and Monday. Gusty west winds will develop by mid-morning. Thunderstorm chances remain low. However, storms may develop during the afternoon into parts of western and central GA and possibly impact ABY and VLD. Have included VCTS accordingly. && .FIRE WEATHER... The airmass across the region will begin to moisten for Monday with RH values only expected to drop below 35 percent for 2 to 3 hours across inland portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. However with increasing winds across the area, dispersion values are forecast to rise above 75. Therefore, will issue a Fire Weather Watch for some inland Florida Counties. Humidity values are forecast to remain well above 35 percent on Tuesday. && .PREV DISCUSSION (330 PM EDT Sun Jun 3 2012)... SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday Night). This will be an interesting and unsettled portion of the forecast period as a weak frontal boundary approaches the Northern Gulf Coast. Initially, the early portion of the forecast has the forecast area staying out of the preferred MCS track and much of the convective activity remaining to our north. As the upper level trough dips a little further south, pushing the frontal boundary nearer to the region, convective activity firing along this front should then be vectored more toward our region, particularly late Monday afternoon and into Monday night. For now, the preferred track for a late day/evening MCS looks to be across our northeastern zones from Ashburn GA down to Adel GA and eastward. By Monday night, the frontal boundary nears the forecast area as a series of little impulses round the base of the larger trough sparking additional storm development. The models split in how they handle the progression of the system into Tuesday. The faster model solutions from the GFS show early Tuesday convective activity spreading over the region prior to 18z, whereas the NAM is a little slower keeping convection out of the area until 18z to 21z. This complicates the forecast as the quality of the thermodynamic environment is thus in question Tuesday. Convective debris from Monday night and early Tuesday morning could greatly limit destabilization Tuesday afternoon limiting both storm coverage and severity. Kinematically, 0-6km deep layer shear intensifies Tuesday afternoon anywhere between 30kt to 50kt depending on the model. The NAM is on the higher end of this scale and appears an outlier. Nevertheless, 30kt to 35kt of deep layer shear this time of year coupled with MLCAPE potentially in the 1500J/KG to 2000 J/KG range is concerning. Thus severe storms will be more likely Tuesday across much of the area, however the threat is still conditional on the convective environment - which will largely be based on Monday night`s lingering convection. Given all the uncertainties, kept pops a little lower than what I`d like, but still above the latest guidance values for Tuesday. Went ahead and included severe wording in the forecast for Tuesday. The faster flow - but potentially less favorable lapse rates - suggest a predominant damaging wind threat with small hail possible. LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday). The 03/00z GFS and the older 02/12z Euro continue to be in rather poor agreement on what will transpire during the long range period. The Euro has remained consistent for a few runs now showing a wet scenario at the end of the week with a stalled west-east oriented surface front. Occasional upper level shortwaves move along it and provide additional lift for a fairly high coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile, the GFS still pushes the front to the south of most of the area by Friday with drier air moving in. Although the GFS scenario is possible, June climatology argues against it and the official forecast continues to side more with a wetter scenario, keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the end of the week. With the models diverging rapidly towards next weekend, confidence in the forecast that far out is currently below average. The official forecast will trend towards climatology by next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 69 97 72 89 71 / 0 10 30 70 50 Panama City 75 90 76 88 75 / 0 10 30 60 50 Dothan 70 97 72 90 70 / 10 10 40 60 30 Albany 69 94 72 88 69 / 10 30 40 60 30 Valdosta 68 95 71 87 69 / 0 30 30 70 40 Cross City 68 93 73 89 72 / 0 10 20 60 50 Apalachicola 73 88 76 87 74 / 0 10 20 60 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...None. FL...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for Calhoun-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Jefferson-Inland Walton- Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-Washington. GM...None. && Aviation...Evans Marine...Godsey Fire Weather...Camp Previous Discussions...Godsey/DVD Rest of Discussion...Wool 000 FXUS62 KTBW 040053 AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 853 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012 .DISCUSSION (TONIGHT)... AT MID LEVELS A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT THE AREA TONIGHT...AS DEPICTED BY THE TBW 00Z RAOB. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THIS EVENING WILL WEAKEN SOME AS IT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER NIGHT. LIMITED CIRRUS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY ON TRACK WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 60S. LIGHT WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS...MAINLY WEST AND SW OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS. THE FORECASTS LOOK GOOD WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED. && .AVIATION... PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. FEW TO SCT CLDS 015-020 WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH LCL BKN 020 POSSIBLE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. LCL 3-5SM BR MAINLY VCNTY PGD AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCT CIRRUS 250...AND DAYTIME HEATING CAUSING SCT CU 040-050 TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE WATERS WILL EASE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH PREVAILING WEST WINDS AT 5-15 KT...AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. NEXT FORECAST OUT BY 10 PM WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR FIRST PERIOD ADJUSTMENTS. && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #515934 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:23 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 359 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY HAVING LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER. THE SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH FLORIDA DURING TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE WEAKENING AND SHEARING OUT AND REMAIN STRETCHED OUT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE GULF HELPING TO BRING DEEPER MOISTURE EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA KEEPING A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A WEAKENING COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR TODAY MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION TO POP UP WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID 90S INLAND. TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND HAVE LEFT THE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST...AND DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)... SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. ALOFT...SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH ENERGY STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION AS A TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TO OVER THE ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOWERING RAIN CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 70-MID 70S THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN LOWER TO THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION... SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BRING SOME TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 13Z...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THURSDAY BEFORE A COOL FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW CONTINUES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 78 90 76 / 0 5 20 20 FMY 92 76 90 74 / 0 5 20 20 GIF 93 74 92 74 / 0 5 20 20 SRQ 89 77 89 75 / 0 5 20 20 BKV 92 72 92 72 / 0 5 20 20 SPG 89 79 88 78 / 0 5 20 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #515930 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:21 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 404 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS DAILY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THIS MRNG BEFORE MOVING GRADUALLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTN AND TNGT. EXPECT A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ERY THIS MRNG...EXCEPT THE NRN SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE...AS A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WRN NY ERY THIS MRNG WILL DIVE SEWD THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC STATES TDA. SIMILAR TO YDA...POP- UP SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA DURING THE AFTN AND ERY EVE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. SHOWERS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP AS ERY AS THE LATE MRNG OVER NRN MD AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE POTOMAC DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING MID-LVL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY. RAP FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW EQUILIBRIUM LVLS BETWEEN -5C AND -15C...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CAA AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN. TOOK A BLEND BETWEEN THE COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN NRN MD TO NEAR 80F IN CENTRAL VA. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TNGT. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVNGT FOR NRN MD. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CLOSED UPR LOW OVER NERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THRU MID-WK...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN NLY-NWLY H5 FLOW OVER MID-ATLC RGN. SVRL SHRTWV TROFS WILL MOVE THRU THIS FLOW TUE AND WED...LEADING TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHWRS OWING TO STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES. INSTBY XPCD TO BE SHALLOW ON TUE...SO TSTMS NOT XPCD. SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHRTWV TROF ON WED WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCRD LOW-LVL MSTR AHD OF APRCHG CDFNT...WHICH MAY PROVIDE GREATER CHC FOR TSTMS. UNUSUALLY COOL MAXIMA IN THE LWR 70S XPCD TUE AND WED...WITH MINIMA IN THE LOW-MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPR RDG WILL AMPLIFY IN CNTRL CONUS LATE IN THE WK WHILE NERN CONUS UPR LOW SHIFTS EWD. SFC HIPRES WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLC RGN FRI AND SAT...EFFECTIVELY LMTG ANY PCPN CHCS. SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE ACRS SRN NY/CNTRL PA ON SUN. MSTR XPCD TO INCR AHD OF THIS WAVE AS SFC TROF CROSSES THE RGN. AS A RESULT... TSTMS MAY DVLP ALONG THIS BNDRY SUN EVE...WHICH WOULD MOVE SEWD INTO FCST AREA. ONLY CHG TO POPS IN EXTENDED WAS TO INCLUDE SLGT CHC TSTMS DURG SUN NGT PD. TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY LATE IN THE WK AS UPR RDG MOVES CLOSER. MAXIMA NR OR SLGTLY ABV NRML CAN BE XPCD DURG THE WKEND. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WLY WINDS THIS MRNG WILL VEER TO NWLY THIS AFTN AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THRU. BREEZY WINDS TDA WILL GUST 20-25 KT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA TO IMPACT BWI/MTN. CHANCES FOR TSRA ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. DAILY ROUNDS OF SHWRS CAN BE XPCD TUE AND WED. IT IS NOT PSBL ATTM TO IDENTIFY WHETHER THESE WOULD IMPACT ANY TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH CLDS XPCD TO PERSIST THRU AT LEAST WED NGT...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD RMN VFR. && .MARINE... LGT WINDS ERY THIS MRNG WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE. SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES TDA...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT EXPECTED. WLY WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME...BECOMING NWLY BY THIS AFTN. DESPITE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A LOCALIZED 30 KT OR HIGHER WIND GUST TDA...ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE AFTN WHEN THE WIND FIELD IS THE STRONGEST. SMALL CRAFT ADZY WAS RETAINED THRU MID-DAY TUE OWING TO NLY CHANNELING PSBLTY. WIND WILL BCM LGT THEREAFTER. NO SGFNT MARINE HAZARDS XPCD THRU RMNDR OF WK OWING TO APRCHG SFC HIPRES. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MON MRNG HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR THE MOST SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND WRN SHORE OF THE MD CHSPK BAY. POSITIVE ANOMALIES REMAIN BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 FT OVNGT. WITH A FULL MOON... DEPARTURES OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL TRANSLATE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT ALEXANDRIA AND ANNAPOLIS. WILL STILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SLIGHTLY LESS SENSITIVE LOCATIONS SUCH AS BOWLEY BAR AND WASHINGTON CHANNEL...SINCE THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL BE CLOSE TO THEIR MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014. VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ054. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537- 539>541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530- 535-536-538-542. && $$ |
| #515918 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:21 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 401 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND BRING MORE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NEW YORK FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS NEW YORK AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND, A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND SPARK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVE ROTATES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AND THEN CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AROUND AND COOLER AIR BEING DRAWN DOWN WITH THE LOW, WE SHOULD SEE A WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 60S ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION, WITH SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA /MAINLY LOWER 70S/. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME GUSTS UP AROUND 20 MPH OR SO. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... AS THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT, A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SECOND WAVE IS CERTAINLY NOT AS ROBUST AND WILL ONLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO AREA. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE CHILLIER SIDE AS WE DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REMAINING 2/3RDS OF OUR AREA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FCST PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED OVERALL BY A GRADUAL SHIFT FROM AN UPPER LOW DOMINATING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND. THE SFC PATN IS RATHER NON-DESCRIPT WITH GENLY WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA DURG THE WEEK BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OFF- SHORE ON THE WEEKEND. THUS THE WEATHER WILL TEND TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH SCT SHOWERS LIKELY DEVLOPING EACH DAY TUE- THU DURG THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVE. INSTBY LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL BUT AN ISOLD T-STORM SHOULD NOT BE RULED OUT ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE SMWHAT BELOW NORMAL BUT WITH A MODERATING TREND BACK TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES NOW SEEM A BIT LESS FOR FRIDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC. THIS IS INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE WARMING TREND SHOULD CONT INTO THE WEEKEND AS WARMER 850MB TEMPS ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA TODAY. WE HAVE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE TAFS BUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION, WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION THUNDER THIS FAR OUT. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR, THEY MAY DETERIORATE TO MVFR, AND POSSIBLY IFR, IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY EARLY THIS MORNING, BECOMING NORTHEAST AND GUSTY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A T-STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR CONDS WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A T-STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR CONDS WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST EARLY TODAY AND THEN SHIFT AROUND THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EASTWARDS. MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL SEE SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS START TO PICK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL START TO GUST TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. SEAS ALSO START TO INCREASE AS WE GET A STRONG PUSH FROM THE UPPER LOW AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST. WINDS START TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY BUT SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO COME DOWN AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN RAISED FOR THE AREA WATERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO, AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... A SURGE OF NELY WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS THAT WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FCST TO DIMINISH BY TUESDAY EVENING BUT THE SEAS WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TODAY AND THEN TURN MORE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FULL MOON, LINGERING SWELLS AND ALREADY HIGHER HIGH TIDES WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING IN THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE, RARITAN BAY AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO APPROACH MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMC |
| #515928 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:21 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 405 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON... .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...LIKELY LINGERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT TODAY. IN SHORT...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL MAINLY ACROSS SC COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WIND WILL SHIFT S/W OF THE CHARLESTON AREA...INCLUDING ALL OF SE GA...AS A SEVERE MCS WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THAT AREA STARTING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION WITHIN 850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE SUPPORTED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. UPSTREAM...THE LEAD CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OF AN MCS WERE PUSHING E/SE ACROSS N GA...AND THIS ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH SC COUNTIES IN SOME FORM EARLY THIS MORNING. IN GENERAL...CLOUD TOPS WERE WARMING UPSTREAM...BUT THE LEADING MID LEVEL COLD POOL SHOULD PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE AT LEAST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SC AND PERHAPS INLAND COUNTIES OF SE GA THIS MORNING. UNLESS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OCCURS UPSTREAM THIS EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. FARTHER SOUTH...WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ACROSS N/INLAND COUNTIES WITHIN THE 850-700 MB THETA E RIDGE AND ALONG MCS OUTFLOW...THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS SE GA ALONG/S OF I-16 UNTIL LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. AFTER THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATE MORNING AS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES OVER AND UPSTREAM OF THE REGION. THE DETAILS REGARDING MID TO LATE MORNING PRECIPITATION REMAIN UNCLEAR AND WILL DEPEND OF THE IMPACT OF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...AND FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE REQUIRED. OF GREATEST INTEREST...GUIDANCE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMUM CREATED BY THE UPSTREAM MCS SWINGING SE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT A NEW MCS WHICH SHOULD ADVANCE THROUGH S/W COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...PROBABLY S/W OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION...ANY TIME FROM LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FEATURING MID LEVEL WINDS EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS AND HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT BY MORNING CONVECTION WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. IF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PARAMETERS OCCUR IN PHASE THIS COMPLEX COULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE EVENT. ALSO OF NOTE...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE MCS COULD BEGIN TO BACK BUILD IN AN E-W BAND ACROSS SE GA FOR A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS... REDEVELOPMENT/TRAINING OF CONVECTION COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE TIMING...PATH AND INTENSITY OF ANY SEVERE MCS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...SO EXPECT FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... ALL FORECAST PARAMETERS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TONIGHT AND WILL DEPEND GREATLY THE IMPACT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE CERTAINLY IN ORDER AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHEST POPS JUSTIFIED ACROSS THE SOUTH. HOWEVER... PRECIPITATION COVERAGE COULD REMAIN SPARSE IN THE WAKE OF ORGANIZED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...OR ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD AS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT LIES OVER/NEAR THE AREA AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE AREA. GENERALLY HAVE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 WHERE THE GREATEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN LIKELY COOLING OFF SLIGHTLY WED/THU. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LIKELY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY...PUSHING THE SURFACE FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT/SUN. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH DAYBREAK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT KCHS VICINITY EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT AMENDMENTS AS REQUIRED TO ADDRESS NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS. THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE KCHS AREA THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD SHIFT S/W OF THIS TERMINAL BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT KSAV...THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATER...PERHAPS NOT UNTIL WELL AFTER 12Z...BUT GREATER IMPACTS FROM STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN APPEAR MORE LIKELY HERE AS A SEVERE MCS COULD PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINAL AT SOME POINT KATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TO MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. THEN...THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER IN THIS AREA BEYOND 00Z. OUTSIDE ANY THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. SMALL CHANCE OF PERIODIC SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THU AS THE FRONT LINGERS OVER/NEAR THE AREA. && .MARINE... SW WINDS 15-20 KT WILL VEER TO THE W AT SIMILAR SPEEDS THIS EVENING... THEN WILL VEER TOWARD THE NW AND WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FT...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FURTHER...THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER LOCAL WINDS AT ANY TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME WIND/WAVE SURGES DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THROUGH MID WEEK...PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES COULD PRODUCE MINOR SALT WATER FLOODING DURING EACH EVENING HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 730 PM AND 930 PM ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #515932 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:21 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 404 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS DAILY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THIS MRNG BEFORE MOVING GRADUALLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTN AND TNGT. EXPECT A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ERY THIS MRNG...EXCEPT THE NRN SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE...AS A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WRN NY ERY THIS MRNG WILL DIVE SEWD THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC STATES TDA. SIMILAR TO YDA...POP- UP SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA DURING THE AFTN AND ERY EVE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. SHOWERS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP AS ERY AS THE LATE MRNG OVER NRN MD AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE POTOMAC DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING MID-LVL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY. RAP FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW EQUILIBRIUM LVLS BETWEEN -5C AND -15C...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CAA AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN. TOOK A BLEND BETWEEN THE COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN NRN MD TO NEAR 80F IN CENTRAL VA. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TNGT. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVNGT FOR NRN MD. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CLOSED UPR LOW OVER NERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THRU MID-WK...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN NLY-NWLY H5 FLOW OVER MID-ATLC RGN. SVRL SHRTWV TROFS WILL MOVE THRU THIS FLOW TUE AND WED...LEADING TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHWRS OWING TO STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES. INSTBY XPCD TO BE SHALLOW ON TUE...SO TSTMS NOT XPCD. SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHRTWV TROF ON WED WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCRD LOW-LVL MSTR AHD OF APRCHG CDFNT...WHICH MAY PROVIDE GREATER CHC FOR TSTMS. UNUSUALLY COOL MAXIMA IN THE LWR 70S XPCD TUE AND WED...WITH MINIMA IN THE LOW-MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPR RDG WILL AMPLIFY IN CNTRL CONUS LATE IN THE WK WHILE NERN CONUS UPR LOW SHIFTS EWD. SFC HIPRES WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLC RGN FRI AND SAT...EFFECTIVELY LMTG ANY PCPN CHCS. SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE ACRS SRN NY/CNTRL PA ON SUN. MSTR XPCD TO INCR AHD OF THIS WAVE AS SFC TROF CROSSES THE RGN. AS A RESULT... TSTMS MAY DVLP ALONG THIS BNDRY SUN EVE...WHICH WOULD MOVE SEWD INTO FCST AREA. ONLY CHG TO POPS IN EXTENDED WAS TO INCLUDE SLGT CHC TSTMS DURG SUN NGT PD. TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY LATE IN THE WK AS UPR RDG MOVES CLOSER. MAXIMA NR OR SLGTLY ABV NRML CAN BE XPCD DURG THE WKEND. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WLY WINDS THIS MRNG WILL VEER TO NWLY THIS AFTN AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THRU. BREEZY WINDS TDA WILL GUST 20-25 KT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA TO IMPACT BWI/MTN. CHANCES FOR TSRA ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. DAILY ROUNDS OF SHWRS CAN BE XPCD TUE AND WED. IT IS NOT PSBL ATTM TO IDENTIFY WHETHER THESE WOULD IMPACT ANY TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH CLDS XPCD TO PERSIST THRU AT LEAST WED NGT...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD RMN VFR. && .MARINE... LGT WINDS ERY THIS MRNG WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE. SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES TDA...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT EXPECTED. WLY WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME...BECOMING NWLY BY THIS AFTN. DESPITE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A LOCALIZED 30 KT OR HIGHER WIND GUST TDA...ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE AFTN WHEN THE WIND FIELD IS THE STRONGEST. SMALL CRAFT ADZY WAS RETAINED THRU MID-DAY TUE OWING TO NLY CHANNELING PSBLTY. WIND WILL BCM LGT THEREAFTER. NO SGFNT MARINE HAZARDS XPCD THRU RMNDR OF WK OWING TO APRCHG SFC HIPRES. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MON MRNG HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR THE MOST SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND WRN SHORE OF THE MD CHSPK BAY. POSITIVE ANOMALIES REMAIN BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 FT OVNGT. WITH A FULL MOON... DEPARTURES OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL TRANSLATE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT ALEXANDRIA AND ANNAPOLIS. WILL STILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SLIGHTLY LESS SENSITIVE LOCATIONS SUCH AS BOWLEY BAR AND WASHINGTON CHANNEL...SINCE THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL BE CLOSE TO THEIR MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014. VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ054. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537- 539>541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530- 535-536-538-542. && $$ |
| #515921 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:18 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 404 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS DAILY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THIS MRNG BEFORE MOVING GRADUALLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTN AND TNGT. EXPECT A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ERY THIS MRNG...EXCEPT THE NRN SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE...AS A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WRN NY ERY THIS MRNG WILL DIVE SEWD THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC STATES TDA. SIMILAR TO YDA...POP- UP SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA DURING THE AFTN AND ERY EVE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. SHOWERS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP AS ERY AS THE LATE MRNG OVER NRN MD AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE POTOMAC DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING MID-LVL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY. RAP FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW EQUILIBRIUM LVLS BETWEEN -5C AND -15C...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CAA AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN. TOOK A BLEND BETWEEN THE COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN NRN MD TO NEAR 80F IN CENTRAL VA. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TNGT. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVNGT FOR NRN MD. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CLOSED UPR LOW OVER NERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THRU MID-WK...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN NLY-NWLY H5 FLOW OVER MID-ATLC RGN. SVRL SHRTWV TROFS WILL MOVE THRU THIS FLOW TUE AND WED...LEADING TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHWRS OWING TO STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES. INSTBY XPCD TO BE SHALLOW ON TUE...SO TSTMS NOT XPCD. SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHRTWV TROF ON WED WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCRD LOW-LVL MSTR AHD OF APRCHG CDFNT...WHICH MAY PROVIDE GREATER CHC FOR TSTMS. UNUSUALLY COOL MAXIMA IN THE LWR 70S XPCD TUE AND WED...WITH MINIMA IN THE LOW-MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPR RDG WILL AMPLIFY IN CNTRL CONUS LATE IN THE WK WHILE NERN CONUS UPR LOW SHIFTS EWD. SFC HIPRES WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLC RGN FRI AND SAT...EFFECTIVELY LMTG ANY PCPN CHCS. SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE ACRS SRN NY/CNTRL PA ON SUN. MSTR XPCD TO INCR AHD OF THIS WAVE AS SFC TROF CROSSES THE RGN. AS A RESULT... TSTMS MAY DVLP ALONG THIS BNDRY SUN EVE...WHICH WOULD MOVE SEWD INTO FCST AREA. ONLY CHG TO POPS IN EXTENDED WAS TO INCLUDE SLGT CHC TSTMS DURG SUN NGT PD. TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY LATE IN THE WK AS UPR RDG MOVES CLOSER. MAXIMA NR OR SLGTLY ABV NRML CAN BE XPCD DURG THE WKEND. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WLY WINDS THIS MRNG WILL VEER TO NWLY THIS AFTN AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THRU. BREEZY WINDS TDA WILL GUST 20-25 KT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA TO IMPACT BWI/MTN. CHANCES FOR TSRA ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. DAILY ROUNDS OF SHWRS CAN BE XPCD TUE AND WED. IT IS NOT PSBL ATTM TO IDENTIFY WHETHER THESE WOULD IMPACT ANY TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH CLDS XPCD TO PERSIST THRU AT LEAST WED NGT...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD RMN VFR. && .MARINE... LGT WINDS ERY THIS MRNG WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE. SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES TDA...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT EXPECTED. WLY WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME...BECOMING NWLY BY THIS AFTN. DESPITE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A LOCALIZED 30 KT OR HIGHER WIND GUST TDA...ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE AFTN WHEN THE WIND FIELD IS THE STRONGEST. SMALL CRAFT ADZY WAS RETAINED THRU MID-DAY TUE OWING TO NLY CHANNELING PSBLTY. WIND WILL BCM LGT THEREAFTER. NO SGFNT MARINE HAZARDS XPCD THRU RMNDR OF WK OWING TO APRCHG SFC HIPRES. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MON MRNG HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR THE MOST SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND WRN SHORE OF THE MD CHSPK BAY. POSITIVE ANOMALIES REMAIN BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 FT OVNGT. WITH A FULL MOON... DEPARTURES OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL TRANSLATE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT ALEXANDRIA AND ANNAPOLIS. WILL STILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SLIGHTLY LESS SENSITIVE LOCATIONS SUCH AS BOWLEY BAR AND WASHINGTON CHANNEL...SINCE THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL BE CLOSE TO THEIR MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014. VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ054. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537- 539>541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530- 535-536-538-542. && $$ |
| #515927 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:18 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 401 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND BRING MORE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NEW YORK FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS NEW YORK AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND, A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND SPARK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVE ROTATES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AND THEN CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AROUND AND COOLER AIR BEING DRAWN DOWN WITH THE LOW, WE SHOULD SEE A WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 60S ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION, WITH SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA /MAINLY LOWER 70S/. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME GUSTS UP AROUND 20 MPH OR SO. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... AS THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT, A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SECOND WAVE IS CERTAINLY NOT AS ROBUST AND WILL ONLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO AREA. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE CHILLIER SIDE AS WE DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REMAINING 2/3RDS OF OUR AREA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FCST PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED OVERALL BY A GRADUAL SHIFT FROM AN UPPER LOW DOMINATING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND. THE SFC PATN IS RATHER NON-DESCRIPT WITH GENLY WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA DURG THE WEEK BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OFF- SHORE ON THE WEEKEND. THUS THE WEATHER WILL TEND TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH SCT SHOWERS LIKELY DEVLOPING EACH DAY TUE- THU DURG THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVE. INSTBY LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL BUT AN ISOLD T-STORM SHOULD NOT BE RULED OUT ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE SMWHAT BELOW NORMAL BUT WITH A MODERATING TREND BACK TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES NOW SEEM A BIT LESS FOR FRIDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC. THIS IS INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE WARMING TREND SHOULD CONT INTO THE WEEKEND AS WARMER 850MB TEMPS ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA TODAY. WE HAVE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE TAFS BUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION, WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION THUNDER THIS FAR OUT. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR, THEY MAY DETERIORATE TO MVFR, AND POSSIBLY IFR, IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY EARLY THIS MORNING, BECOMING NORTHEAST AND GUSTY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A T-STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR CONDS WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A T-STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR CONDS WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST EARLY TODAY AND THEN SHIFT AROUND THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EASTWARDS. MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL SEE SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS START TO PICK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL START TO GUST TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. SEAS ALSO START TO INCREASE AS WE GET A STRONG PUSH FROM THE UPPER LOW AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST. WINDS START TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY BUT SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO COME DOWN AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN RAISED FOR THE AREA WATERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO, AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... A SURGE OF NELY WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS THAT WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FCST TO DIMINISH BY TUESDAY EVENING BUT THE SEAS WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TODAY AND THEN TURN MORE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FULL MOON, LINGERING SWELLS AND ALREADY HIGHER HIGH TIDES WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING IN THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE, RARITAN BAY AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO APPROACH MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMC |
| #515925 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:18 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 404 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS DAILY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THIS MRNG BEFORE MOVING GRADUALLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTN AND TNGT. EXPECT A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ERY THIS MRNG...EXCEPT THE NRN SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE...AS A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WRN NY ERY THIS MRNG WILL DIVE SEWD THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC STATES TDA. SIMILAR TO YDA...POP- UP SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA DURING THE AFTN AND ERY EVE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. SHOWERS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP AS ERY AS THE LATE MRNG OVER NRN MD AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE POTOMAC DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING MID-LVL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY. RAP FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW EQUILIBRIUM LVLS BETWEEN -5C AND -15C...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CAA AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN. TOOK A BLEND BETWEEN THE COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN NRN MD TO NEAR 80F IN CENTRAL VA. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TNGT. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVNGT FOR NRN MD. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CLOSED UPR LOW OVER NERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THRU MID-WK...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN NLY-NWLY H5 FLOW OVER MID-ATLC RGN. SVRL SHRTWV TROFS WILL MOVE THRU THIS FLOW TUE AND WED...LEADING TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHWRS OWING TO STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES. INSTBY XPCD TO BE SHALLOW ON TUE...SO TSTMS NOT XPCD. SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHRTWV TROF ON WED WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCRD LOW-LVL MSTR AHD OF APRCHG CDFNT...WHICH MAY PROVIDE GREATER CHC FOR TSTMS. UNUSUALLY COOL MAXIMA IN THE LWR 70S XPCD TUE AND WED...WITH MINIMA IN THE LOW-MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPR RDG WILL AMPLIFY IN CNTRL CONUS LATE IN THE WK WHILE NERN CONUS UPR LOW SHIFTS EWD. SFC HIPRES WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLC RGN FRI AND SAT...EFFECTIVELY LMTG ANY PCPN CHCS. SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE ACRS SRN NY/CNTRL PA ON SUN. MSTR XPCD TO INCR AHD OF THIS WAVE AS SFC TROF CROSSES THE RGN. AS A RESULT... TSTMS MAY DVLP ALONG THIS BNDRY SUN EVE...WHICH WOULD MOVE SEWD INTO FCST AREA. ONLY CHG TO POPS IN EXTENDED WAS TO INCLUDE SLGT CHC TSTMS DURG SUN NGT PD. TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY LATE IN THE WK AS UPR RDG MOVES CLOSER. MAXIMA NR OR SLGTLY ABV NRML CAN BE XPCD DURG THE WKEND. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WLY WINDS THIS MRNG WILL VEER TO NWLY THIS AFTN AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THRU. BREEZY WINDS TDA WILL GUST 20-25 KT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA TO IMPACT BWI/MTN. CHANCES FOR TSRA ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. DAILY ROUNDS OF SHWRS CAN BE XPCD TUE AND WED. IT IS NOT PSBL ATTM TO IDENTIFY WHETHER THESE WOULD IMPACT ANY TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH CLDS XPCD TO PERSIST THRU AT LEAST WED NGT...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD RMN VFR. && .MARINE... LGT WINDS ERY THIS MRNG WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE. SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES TDA...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT EXPECTED. WLY WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME...BECOMING NWLY BY THIS AFTN. DESPITE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A LOCALIZED 30 KT OR HIGHER WIND GUST TDA...ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE AFTN WHEN THE WIND FIELD IS THE STRONGEST. SMALL CRAFT ADZY WAS RETAINED THRU MID-DAY TUE OWING TO NLY CHANNELING PSBLTY. WIND WILL BCM LGT THEREAFTER. NO SGFNT MARINE HAZARDS XPCD THRU RMNDR OF WK OWING TO APRCHG SFC HIPRES. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MON MRNG HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR THE MOST SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND WRN SHORE OF THE MD CHSPK BAY. POSITIVE ANOMALIES REMAIN BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 FT OVNGT. WITH A FULL MOON... DEPARTURES OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL TRANSLATE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT ALEXANDRIA AND ANNAPOLIS. WILL STILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SLIGHTLY LESS SENSITIVE LOCATIONS SUCH AS BOWLEY BAR AND WASHINGTON CHANNEL...SINCE THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL BE CLOSE TO THEIR MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014. VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ054. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537- 539>541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530- 535-536-538-542. && $$ |
| #515926 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:17 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 405 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON... .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...LIKELY LINGERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT TODAY. IN SHORT...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL MAINLY ACROSS SC COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WIND WILL SHIFT S/W OF THE CHARLESTON AREA...INCLUDING ALL OF SE GA...AS A SEVERE MCS WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THAT AREA STARTING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION WITHIN 850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE SUPPORTED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. UPSTREAM...THE LEAD CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OF AN MCS WERE PUSHING E/SE ACROSS N GA...AND THIS ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH SC COUNTIES IN SOME FORM EARLY THIS MORNING. IN GENERAL...CLOUD TOPS WERE WARMING UPSTREAM...BUT THE LEADING MID LEVEL COLD POOL SHOULD PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE AT LEAST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SC AND PERHAPS INLAND COUNTIES OF SE GA THIS MORNING. UNLESS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OCCURS UPSTREAM THIS EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. FARTHER SOUTH...WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ACROSS N/INLAND COUNTIES WITHIN THE 850-700 MB THETA E RIDGE AND ALONG MCS OUTFLOW...THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS SE GA ALONG/S OF I-16 UNTIL LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. AFTER THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATE MORNING AS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES OVER AND UPSTREAM OF THE REGION. THE DETAILS REGARDING MID TO LATE MORNING PRECIPITATION REMAIN UNCLEAR AND WILL DEPEND OF THE IMPACT OF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...AND FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE REQUIRED. OF GREATEST INTEREST...GUIDANCE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMUM CREATED BY THE UPSTREAM MCS SWINGING SE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT A NEW MCS WHICH SHOULD ADVANCE THROUGH S/W COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...PROBABLY S/W OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION...ANY TIME FROM LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FEATURING MID LEVEL WINDS EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS AND HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT BY MORNING CONVECTION WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. IF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PARAMETERS OCCUR IN PHASE THIS COMPLEX COULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE EVENT. ALSO OF NOTE...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE MCS COULD BEGIN TO BACK BUILD IN AN E-W BAND ACROSS SE GA FOR A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS... REDEVELOPMENT/TRAINING OF CONVECTION COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE TIMING...PATH AND INTENSITY OF ANY SEVERE MCS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...SO EXPECT FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... ALL FORECAST PARAMETERS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TONIGHT AND WILL DEPEND GREATLY THE IMPACT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE CERTAINLY IN ORDER AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHEST POPS JUSTIFIED ACROSS THE SOUTH. HOWEVER... PRECIPITATION COVERAGE COULD REMAIN SPARSE IN THE WAKE OF ORGANIZED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...OR ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD AS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT LIES OVER/NEAR THE AREA AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE AREA. GENERALLY HAVE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 WHERE THE GREATEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN LIKELY COOLING OFF SLIGHTLY WED/THU. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LIKELY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY...PUSHING THE SURFACE FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT/SUN. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH DAYBREAK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT KCHS VICINITY EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT AMENDMENTS AS REQUIRED TO ADDRESS NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS. THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE KCHS AREA THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD SHIFT S/W OF THIS TERMINAL BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT KSAV...THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATER...PERHAPS NOT UNTIL WELL AFTER 12Z...BUT GREATER IMPACTS FROM STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN APPEAR MORE LIKELY HERE AS A SEVERE MCS COULD PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINAL AT SOME POINT KATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TO MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. THEN...THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER IN THIS AREA BEYOND 00Z. OUTSIDE ANY THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. SMALL CHANCE OF PERIODIC SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THU AS THE FRONT LINGERS OVER/NEAR THE AREA. && .MARINE... SW WINDS 15-20 KT WILL VEER TO THE W AT SIMILAR SPEEDS THIS EVENING... THEN WILL VEER TOWARD THE NW AND WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FT...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FURTHER...THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER LOCAL WINDS AT ANY TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME WIND/WAVE SURGES DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THROUGH MID WEEK...PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES COULD PRODUCE MINOR SALT WATER FLOODING DURING EACH EVENING HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 730 PM AND 930 PM ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #515922 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:15 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 401 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND BRING MORE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NEW YORK FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS NEW YORK AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND, A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND SPARK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVE ROTATES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AND THEN CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AROUND AND COOLER AIR BEING DRAWN DOWN WITH THE LOW, WE SHOULD SEE A WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 60S ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION, WITH SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA /MAINLY LOWER 70S/. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME GUSTS UP AROUND 20 MPH OR SO. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... AS THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT, A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SECOND WAVE IS CERTAINLY NOT AS ROBUST AND WILL ONLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO AREA. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE CHILLIER SIDE AS WE DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REMAINING 2/3RDS OF OUR AREA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FCST PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED OVERALL BY A GRADUAL SHIFT FROM AN UPPER LOW DOMINATING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND. THE SFC PATN IS RATHER NON-DESCRIPT WITH GENLY WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA DURG THE WEEK BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OFF- SHORE ON THE WEEKEND. THUS THE WEATHER WILL TEND TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH SCT SHOWERS LIKELY DEVLOPING EACH DAY TUE- THU DURG THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVE. INSTBY LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL BUT AN ISOLD T-STORM SHOULD NOT BE RULED OUT ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE SMWHAT BELOW NORMAL BUT WITH A MODERATING TREND BACK TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES NOW SEEM A BIT LESS FOR FRIDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC. THIS IS INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE WARMING TREND SHOULD CONT INTO THE WEEKEND AS WARMER 850MB TEMPS ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA TODAY. WE HAVE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE TAFS BUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION, WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION THUNDER THIS FAR OUT. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR, THEY MAY DETERIORATE TO MVFR, AND POSSIBLY IFR, IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY EARLY THIS MORNING, BECOMING NORTHEAST AND GUSTY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A T-STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR CONDS WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A T-STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR CONDS WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST EARLY TODAY AND THEN SHIFT AROUND THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EASTWARDS. MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL SEE SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS START TO PICK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL START TO GUST TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. SEAS ALSO START TO INCREASE AS WE GET A STRONG PUSH FROM THE UPPER LOW AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST. WINDS START TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY BUT SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO COME DOWN AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN RAISED FOR THE AREA WATERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO, AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... A SURGE OF NELY WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS THAT WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FCST TO DIMINISH BY TUESDAY EVENING BUT THE SEAS WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TODAY AND THEN TURN MORE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FULL MOON, LINGERING SWELLS AND ALREADY HIGHER HIGH TIDES WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING IN THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE, RARITAN BAY AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO APPROACH MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMC |
| #515923 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:15 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 404 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS DAILY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THIS MRNG BEFORE MOVING GRADUALLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTN AND TNGT. EXPECT A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ERY THIS MRNG...EXCEPT THE NRN SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE...AS A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WRN NY ERY THIS MRNG WILL DIVE SEWD THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC STATES TDA. SIMILAR TO YDA...POP- UP SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA DURING THE AFTN AND ERY EVE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. SHOWERS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP AS ERY AS THE LATE MRNG OVER NRN MD AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE POTOMAC DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING MID-LVL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY. RAP FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW EQUILIBRIUM LVLS BETWEEN -5C AND -15C...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CAA AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN. TOOK A BLEND BETWEEN THE COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN NRN MD TO NEAR 80F IN CENTRAL VA. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TNGT. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVNGT FOR NRN MD. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CLOSED UPR LOW OVER NERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THRU MID-WK...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN NLY-NWLY H5 FLOW OVER MID-ATLC RGN. SVRL SHRTWV TROFS WILL MOVE THRU THIS FLOW TUE AND WED...LEADING TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHWRS OWING TO STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES. INSTBY XPCD TO BE SHALLOW ON TUE...SO TSTMS NOT XPCD. SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHRTWV TROF ON WED WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCRD LOW-LVL MSTR AHD OF APRCHG CDFNT...WHICH MAY PROVIDE GREATER CHC FOR TSTMS. UNUSUALLY COOL MAXIMA IN THE LWR 70S XPCD TUE AND WED...WITH MINIMA IN THE LOW-MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPR RDG WILL AMPLIFY IN CNTRL CONUS LATE IN THE WK WHILE NERN CONUS UPR LOW SHIFTS EWD. SFC HIPRES WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLC RGN FRI AND SAT...EFFECTIVELY LMTG ANY PCPN CHCS. SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE ACRS SRN NY/CNTRL PA ON SUN. MSTR XPCD TO INCR AHD OF THIS WAVE AS SFC TROF CROSSES THE RGN. AS A RESULT... TSTMS MAY DVLP ALONG THIS BNDRY SUN EVE...WHICH WOULD MOVE SEWD INTO FCST AREA. ONLY CHG TO POPS IN EXTENDED WAS TO INCLUDE SLGT CHC TSTMS DURG SUN NGT PD. TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY LATE IN THE WK AS UPR RDG MOVES CLOSER. MAXIMA NR OR SLGTLY ABV NRML CAN BE XPCD DURG THE WKEND. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WLY WINDS THIS MRNG WILL VEER TO NWLY THIS AFTN AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THRU. BREEZY WINDS TDA WILL GUST 20-25 KT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA TO IMPACT BWI/MTN. CHANCES FOR TSRA ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. DAILY ROUNDS OF SHWRS CAN BE XPCD TUE AND WED. IT IS NOT PSBL ATTM TO IDENTIFY WHETHER THESE WOULD IMPACT ANY TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH CLDS XPCD TO PERSIST THRU AT LEAST WED NGT...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD RMN VFR. && .MARINE... LGT WINDS ERY THIS MRNG WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE. SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES TDA...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT EXPECTED. WLY WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME...BECOMING NWLY BY THIS AFTN. DESPITE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A LOCALIZED 30 KT OR HIGHER WIND GUST TDA...ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE AFTN WHEN THE WIND FIELD IS THE STRONGEST. SMALL CRAFT ADZY WAS RETAINED THRU MID-DAY TUE OWING TO NLY CHANNELING PSBLTY. WIND WILL BCM LGT THEREAFTER. NO SGFNT MARINE HAZARDS XPCD THRU RMNDR OF WK OWING TO APRCHG SFC HIPRES. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MON MRNG HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR THE MOST SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND WRN SHORE OF THE MD CHSPK BAY. POSITIVE ANOMALIES REMAIN BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 FT OVNGT. WITH A FULL MOON... DEPARTURES OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL TRANSLATE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT ALEXANDRIA AND ANNAPOLIS. WILL STILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SLIGHTLY LESS SENSITIVE LOCATIONS SUCH AS BOWLEY BAR AND WASHINGTON CHANNEL...SINCE THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL BE CLOSE TO THEIR MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014. VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ054. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537- 539>541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530- 535-536-538-542. && $$ |
| #515933 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:15 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 404 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS DAILY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THIS MRNG BEFORE MOVING GRADUALLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTN AND TNGT. EXPECT A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ERY THIS MRNG...EXCEPT THE NRN SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE...AS A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WRN NY ERY THIS MRNG WILL DIVE SEWD THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC STATES TDA. SIMILAR TO YDA...POP- UP SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA DURING THE AFTN AND ERY EVE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. SHOWERS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP AS ERY AS THE LATE MRNG OVER NRN MD AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE POTOMAC DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING MID-LVL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY. RAP FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW EQUILIBRIUM LVLS BETWEEN -5C AND -15C...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CAA AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN. TOOK A BLEND BETWEEN THE COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN NRN MD TO NEAR 80F IN CENTRAL VA. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TNGT. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVNGT FOR NRN MD. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CLOSED UPR LOW OVER NERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THRU MID-WK...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN NLY-NWLY H5 FLOW OVER MID-ATLC RGN. SVRL SHRTWV TROFS WILL MOVE THRU THIS FLOW TUE AND WED...LEADING TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHWRS OWING TO STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES. INSTBY XPCD TO BE SHALLOW ON TUE...SO TSTMS NOT XPCD. SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHRTWV TROF ON WED WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCRD LOW-LVL MSTR AHD OF APRCHG CDFNT...WHICH MAY PROVIDE GREATER CHC FOR TSTMS. UNUSUALLY COOL MAXIMA IN THE LWR 70S XPCD TUE AND WED...WITH MINIMA IN THE LOW-MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPR RDG WILL AMPLIFY IN CNTRL CONUS LATE IN THE WK WHILE NERN CONUS UPR LOW SHIFTS EWD. SFC HIPRES WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLC RGN FRI AND SAT...EFFECTIVELY LMTG ANY PCPN CHCS. SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE ACRS SRN NY/CNTRL PA ON SUN. MSTR XPCD TO INCR AHD OF THIS WAVE AS SFC TROF CROSSES THE RGN. AS A RESULT... TSTMS MAY DVLP ALONG THIS BNDRY SUN EVE...WHICH WOULD MOVE SEWD INTO FCST AREA. ONLY CHG TO POPS IN EXTENDED WAS TO INCLUDE SLGT CHC TSTMS DURG SUN NGT PD. TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY LATE IN THE WK AS UPR RDG MOVES CLOSER. MAXIMA NR OR SLGTLY ABV NRML CAN BE XPCD DURG THE WKEND. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WLY WINDS THIS MRNG WILL VEER TO NWLY THIS AFTN AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THRU. BREEZY WINDS TDA WILL GUST 20-25 KT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA TO IMPACT BWI/MTN. CHANCES FOR TSRA ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. DAILY ROUNDS OF SHWRS CAN BE XPCD TUE AND WED. IT IS NOT PSBL ATTM TO IDENTIFY WHETHER THESE WOULD IMPACT ANY TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH CLDS XPCD TO PERSIST THRU AT LEAST WED NGT...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD RMN VFR. && .MARINE... LGT WINDS ERY THIS MRNG WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE. SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES TDA...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT EXPECTED. WLY WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME...BECOMING NWLY BY THIS AFTN. DESPITE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A LOCALIZED 30 KT OR HIGHER WIND GUST TDA...ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE AFTN WHEN THE WIND FIELD IS THE STRONGEST. SMALL CRAFT ADZY WAS RETAINED THRU MID-DAY TUE OWING TO NLY CHANNELING PSBLTY. WIND WILL BCM LGT THEREAFTER. NO SGFNT MARINE HAZARDS XPCD THRU RMNDR OF WK OWING TO APRCHG SFC HIPRES. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MON MRNG HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR THE MOST SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND WRN SHORE OF THE MD CHSPK BAY. POSITIVE ANOMALIES REMAIN BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 FT OVNGT. WITH A FULL MOON... DEPARTURES OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL TRANSLATE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT ALEXANDRIA AND ANNAPOLIS. WILL STILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SLIGHTLY LESS SENSITIVE LOCATIONS SUCH AS BOWLEY BAR AND WASHINGTON CHANNEL...SINCE THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL BE CLOSE TO THEIR MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014. VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ054. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537- 539>541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530- 535-536-538-542. && $$ |
| #515931 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:14 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 405 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON... .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...LIKELY LINGERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT TODAY. IN SHORT...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL MAINLY ACROSS SC COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WIND WILL SHIFT S/W OF THE CHARLESTON AREA...INCLUDING ALL OF SE GA...AS A SEVERE MCS WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THAT AREA STARTING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION WITHIN 850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE SUPPORTED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. UPSTREAM...THE LEAD CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OF AN MCS WERE PUSHING E/SE ACROSS N GA...AND THIS ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH SC COUNTIES IN SOME FORM EARLY THIS MORNING. IN GENERAL...CLOUD TOPS WERE WARMING UPSTREAM...BUT THE LEADING MID LEVEL COLD POOL SHOULD PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE AT LEAST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SC AND PERHAPS INLAND COUNTIES OF SE GA THIS MORNING. UNLESS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OCCURS UPSTREAM THIS EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. FARTHER SOUTH...WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ACROSS N/INLAND COUNTIES WITHIN THE 850-700 MB THETA E RIDGE AND ALONG MCS OUTFLOW...THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS SE GA ALONG/S OF I-16 UNTIL LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. AFTER THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATE MORNING AS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES OVER AND UPSTREAM OF THE REGION. THE DETAILS REGARDING MID TO LATE MORNING PRECIPITATION REMAIN UNCLEAR AND WILL DEPEND OF THE IMPACT OF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...AND FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE REQUIRED. OF GREATEST INTEREST...GUIDANCE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMUM CREATED BY THE UPSTREAM MCS SWINGING SE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT A NEW MCS WHICH SHOULD ADVANCE THROUGH S/W COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...PROBABLY S/W OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION...ANY TIME FROM LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FEATURING MID LEVEL WINDS EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS AND HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT BY MORNING CONVECTION WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. IF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PARAMETERS OCCUR IN PHASE THIS COMPLEX COULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE EVENT. ALSO OF NOTE...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE MCS COULD BEGIN TO BACK BUILD IN AN E-W BAND ACROSS SE GA FOR A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS... REDEVELOPMENT/TRAINING OF CONVECTION COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE TIMING...PATH AND INTENSITY OF ANY SEVERE MCS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...SO EXPECT FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... ALL FORECAST PARAMETERS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TONIGHT AND WILL DEPEND GREATLY THE IMPACT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE CERTAINLY IN ORDER AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHEST POPS JUSTIFIED ACROSS THE SOUTH. HOWEVER... PRECIPITATION COVERAGE COULD REMAIN SPARSE IN THE WAKE OF ORGANIZED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...OR ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD AS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT LIES OVER/NEAR THE AREA AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE AREA. GENERALLY HAVE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 WHERE THE GREATEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN LIKELY COOLING OFF SLIGHTLY WED/THU. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LIKELY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY...PUSHING THE SURFACE FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT/SUN. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH DAYBREAK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT KCHS VICINITY EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT AMENDMENTS AS REQUIRED TO ADDRESS NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS. THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE KCHS AREA THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD SHIFT S/W OF THIS TERMINAL BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT KSAV...THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATER...PERHAPS NOT UNTIL WELL AFTER 12Z...BUT GREATER IMPACTS FROM STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN APPEAR MORE LIKELY HERE AS A SEVERE MCS COULD PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINAL AT SOME POINT KATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TO MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. THEN...THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER IN THIS AREA BEYOND 00Z. OUTSIDE ANY THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. SMALL CHANCE OF PERIODIC SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THU AS THE FRONT LINGERS OVER/NEAR THE AREA. && .MARINE... SW WINDS 15-20 KT WILL VEER TO THE W AT SIMILAR SPEEDS THIS EVENING... THEN WILL VEER TOWARD THE NW AND WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FT...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FURTHER...THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER LOCAL WINDS AT ANY TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME WIND/WAVE SURGES DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THROUGH MID WEEK...PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES COULD PRODUCE MINOR SALT WATER FLOODING DURING EACH EVENING HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 730 PM AND 930 PM ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #515920 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:12 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 401 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND BRING MORE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NEW YORK FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS NEW YORK AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND, A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND SPARK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVE ROTATES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AND THEN CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AROUND AND COOLER AIR BEING DRAWN DOWN WITH THE LOW, WE SHOULD SEE A WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 60S ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION, WITH SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA /MAINLY LOWER 70S/. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME GUSTS UP AROUND 20 MPH OR SO. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... AS THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT, A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SECOND WAVE IS CERTAINLY NOT AS ROBUST AND WILL ONLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO AREA. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE CHILLIER SIDE AS WE DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REMAINING 2/3RDS OF OUR AREA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FCST PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED OVERALL BY A GRADUAL SHIFT FROM AN UPPER LOW DOMINATING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND. THE SFC PATN IS RATHER NON-DESCRIPT WITH GENLY WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA DURG THE WEEK BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OFF- SHORE ON THE WEEKEND. THUS THE WEATHER WILL TEND TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH SCT SHOWERS LIKELY DEVLOPING EACH DAY TUE- THU DURG THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVE. INSTBY LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL BUT AN ISOLD T-STORM SHOULD NOT BE RULED OUT ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE SMWHAT BELOW NORMAL BUT WITH A MODERATING TREND BACK TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES NOW SEEM A BIT LESS FOR FRIDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC. THIS IS INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE WARMING TREND SHOULD CONT INTO THE WEEKEND AS WARMER 850MB TEMPS ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA TODAY. WE HAVE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE TAFS BUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION, WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION THUNDER THIS FAR OUT. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR, THEY MAY DETERIORATE TO MVFR, AND POSSIBLY IFR, IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY EARLY THIS MORNING, BECOMING NORTHEAST AND GUSTY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A T-STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR CONDS WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT OCCASIONALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A T-STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR CONDS WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST EARLY TODAY AND THEN SHIFT AROUND THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EASTWARDS. MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL SEE SEAS 2-4 FEET AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS START TO PICK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL START TO GUST TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. SEAS ALSO START TO INCREASE AS WE GET A STRONG PUSH FROM THE UPPER LOW AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST. WINDS START TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY BUT SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO COME DOWN AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN RAISED FOR THE AREA WATERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO, AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... A SURGE OF NELY WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS THAT WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FCST TO DIMINISH BY TUESDAY EVENING BUT THE SEAS WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TODAY AND THEN TURN MORE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FULL MOON, LINGERING SWELLS AND ALREADY HIGHER HIGH TIDES WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING IN THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE, RARITAN BAY AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO APPROACH MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMC |
| #515919 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:12 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 404 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS DAILY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THIS MRNG BEFORE MOVING GRADUALLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTN AND TNGT. EXPECT A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ERY THIS MRNG...EXCEPT THE NRN SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE...AS A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WRN NY ERY THIS MRNG WILL DIVE SEWD THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC STATES TDA. SIMILAR TO YDA...POP- UP SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA DURING THE AFTN AND ERY EVE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. SHOWERS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP AS ERY AS THE LATE MRNG OVER NRN MD AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE POTOMAC DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING MID-LVL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY. RAP FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW EQUILIBRIUM LVLS BETWEEN -5C AND -15C...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CAA AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN. TOOK A BLEND BETWEEN THE COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN NRN MD TO NEAR 80F IN CENTRAL VA. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TNGT. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVNGT FOR NRN MD. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CLOSED UPR LOW OVER NERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THRU MID-WK...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN NLY-NWLY H5 FLOW OVER MID-ATLC RGN. SVRL SHRTWV TROFS WILL MOVE THRU THIS FLOW TUE AND WED...LEADING TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHWRS OWING TO STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES. INSTBY XPCD TO BE SHALLOW ON TUE...SO TSTMS NOT XPCD. SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHRTWV TROF ON WED WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCRD LOW-LVL MSTR AHD OF APRCHG CDFNT...WHICH MAY PROVIDE GREATER CHC FOR TSTMS. UNUSUALLY COOL MAXIMA IN THE LWR 70S XPCD TUE AND WED...WITH MINIMA IN THE LOW-MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPR RDG WILL AMPLIFY IN CNTRL CONUS LATE IN THE WK WHILE NERN CONUS UPR LOW SHIFTS EWD. SFC HIPRES WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLC RGN FRI AND SAT...EFFECTIVELY LMTG ANY PCPN CHCS. SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE ACRS SRN NY/CNTRL PA ON SUN. MSTR XPCD TO INCR AHD OF THIS WAVE AS SFC TROF CROSSES THE RGN. AS A RESULT... TSTMS MAY DVLP ALONG THIS BNDRY SUN EVE...WHICH WOULD MOVE SEWD INTO FCST AREA. ONLY CHG TO POPS IN EXTENDED WAS TO INCLUDE SLGT CHC TSTMS DURG SUN NGT PD. TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY LATE IN THE WK AS UPR RDG MOVES CLOSER. MAXIMA NR OR SLGTLY ABV NRML CAN BE XPCD DURG THE WKEND. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WLY WINDS THIS MRNG WILL VEER TO NWLY THIS AFTN AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THRU. BREEZY WINDS TDA WILL GUST 20-25 KT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA TO IMPACT BWI/MTN. CHANCES FOR TSRA ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. DAILY ROUNDS OF SHWRS CAN BE XPCD TUE AND WED. IT IS NOT PSBL ATTM TO IDENTIFY WHETHER THESE WOULD IMPACT ANY TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH CLDS XPCD TO PERSIST THRU AT LEAST WED NGT...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD RMN VFR. && .MARINE... LGT WINDS ERY THIS MRNG WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE. SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES TDA...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT EXPECTED. WLY WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME...BECOMING NWLY BY THIS AFTN. DESPITE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A LOCALIZED 30 KT OR HIGHER WIND GUST TDA...ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE AFTN WHEN THE WIND FIELD IS THE STRONGEST. SMALL CRAFT ADZY WAS RETAINED THRU MID-DAY TUE OWING TO NLY CHANNELING PSBLTY. WIND WILL BCM LGT THEREAFTER. NO SGFNT MARINE HAZARDS XPCD THRU RMNDR OF WK OWING TO APRCHG SFC HIPRES. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MON MRNG HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR THE MOST SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND WRN SHORE OF THE MD CHSPK BAY. POSITIVE ANOMALIES REMAIN BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 FT OVNGT. WITH A FULL MOON... DEPARTURES OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL TRANSLATE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT ALEXANDRIA AND ANNAPOLIS. WILL STILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SLIGHTLY LESS SENSITIVE LOCATIONS SUCH AS BOWLEY BAR AND WASHINGTON CHANNEL...SINCE THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL BE CLOSE TO THEIR MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014. VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ054. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537- 539>541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530- 535-536-538-542. && $$ |
| #515929 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:11 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 405 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON... .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...LIKELY LINGERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT TODAY. IN SHORT...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL MAINLY ACROSS SC COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WIND WILL SHIFT S/W OF THE CHARLESTON AREA...INCLUDING ALL OF SE GA...AS A SEVERE MCS WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THAT AREA STARTING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION WITHIN 850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE SUPPORTED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. UPSTREAM...THE LEAD CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OF AN MCS WERE PUSHING E/SE ACROSS N GA...AND THIS ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH SC COUNTIES IN SOME FORM EARLY THIS MORNING. IN GENERAL...CLOUD TOPS WERE WARMING UPSTREAM...BUT THE LEADING MID LEVEL COLD POOL SHOULD PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE AT LEAST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SC AND PERHAPS INLAND COUNTIES OF SE GA THIS MORNING. UNLESS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OCCURS UPSTREAM THIS EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. FARTHER SOUTH...WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ACROSS N/INLAND COUNTIES WITHIN THE 850-700 MB THETA E RIDGE AND ALONG MCS OUTFLOW...THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS SE GA ALONG/S OF I-16 UNTIL LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. AFTER THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATE MORNING AS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES OVER AND UPSTREAM OF THE REGION. THE DETAILS REGARDING MID TO LATE MORNING PRECIPITATION REMAIN UNCLEAR AND WILL DEPEND OF THE IMPACT OF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...AND FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE REQUIRED. OF GREATEST INTEREST...GUIDANCE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMUM CREATED BY THE UPSTREAM MCS SWINGING SE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT A NEW MCS WHICH SHOULD ADVANCE THROUGH S/W COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...PROBABLY S/W OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION...ANY TIME FROM LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FEATURING MID LEVEL WINDS EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS AND HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT BY MORNING CONVECTION WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. IF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PARAMETERS OCCUR IN PHASE THIS COMPLEX COULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE EVENT. ALSO OF NOTE...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE MCS COULD BEGIN TO BACK BUILD IN AN E-W BAND ACROSS SE GA FOR A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS... REDEVELOPMENT/TRAINING OF CONVECTION COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE TIMING...PATH AND INTENSITY OF ANY SEVERE MCS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...SO EXPECT FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... ALL FORECAST PARAMETERS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TONIGHT AND WILL DEPEND GREATLY THE IMPACT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE CERTAINLY IN ORDER AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHEST POPS JUSTIFIED ACROSS THE SOUTH. HOWEVER... PRECIPITATION COVERAGE COULD REMAIN SPARSE IN THE WAKE OF ORGANIZED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...OR ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD AS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT LIES OVER/NEAR THE AREA AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE AREA. GENERALLY HAVE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 WHERE THE GREATEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN LIKELY COOLING OFF SLIGHTLY WED/THU. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LIKELY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY...PUSHING THE SURFACE FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT/SUN. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH DAYBREAK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT KCHS VICINITY EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT AMENDMENTS AS REQUIRED TO ADDRESS NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS. THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE KCHS AREA THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD SHIFT S/W OF THIS TERMINAL BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT KSAV...THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATER...PERHAPS NOT UNTIL WELL AFTER 12Z...BUT GREATER IMPACTS FROM STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN APPEAR MORE LIKELY HERE AS A SEVERE MCS COULD PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINAL AT SOME POINT KATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TO MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. THEN...THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER IN THIS AREA BEYOND 00Z. OUTSIDE ANY THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. SMALL CHANCE OF PERIODIC SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THU AS THE FRONT LINGERS OVER/NEAR THE AREA. && .MARINE... SW WINDS 15-20 KT WILL VEER TO THE W AT SIMILAR SPEEDS THIS EVENING... THEN WILL VEER TOWARD THE NW AND WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FT...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FURTHER...THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER LOCAL WINDS AT ANY TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME WIND/WAVE SURGES DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THROUGH MID WEEK...PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES COULD PRODUCE MINOR SALT WATER FLOODING DURING EACH EVENING HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 730 PM AND 930 PM ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #515924 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:09 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 404 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS DAILY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THIS MRNG BEFORE MOVING GRADUALLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTN AND TNGT. EXPECT A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ERY THIS MRNG...EXCEPT THE NRN SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE...AS A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WRN NY ERY THIS MRNG WILL DIVE SEWD THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC STATES TDA. SIMILAR TO YDA...POP- UP SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA DURING THE AFTN AND ERY EVE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. SHOWERS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP AS ERY AS THE LATE MRNG OVER NRN MD AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE POTOMAC DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING MID-LVL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY. RAP FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW EQUILIBRIUM LVLS BETWEEN -5C AND -15C...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CAA AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN. TOOK A BLEND BETWEEN THE COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN NRN MD TO NEAR 80F IN CENTRAL VA. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TNGT. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVNGT FOR NRN MD. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CLOSED UPR LOW OVER NERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THRU MID-WK...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN NLY-NWLY H5 FLOW OVER MID-ATLC RGN. SVRL SHRTWV TROFS WILL MOVE THRU THIS FLOW TUE AND WED...LEADING TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHWRS OWING TO STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES. INSTBY XPCD TO BE SHALLOW ON TUE...SO TSTMS NOT XPCD. SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHRTWV TROF ON WED WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCRD LOW-LVL MSTR AHD OF APRCHG CDFNT...WHICH MAY PROVIDE GREATER CHC FOR TSTMS. UNUSUALLY COOL MAXIMA IN THE LWR 70S XPCD TUE AND WED...WITH MINIMA IN THE LOW-MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPR RDG WILL AMPLIFY IN CNTRL CONUS LATE IN THE WK WHILE NERN CONUS UPR LOW SHIFTS EWD. SFC HIPRES WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLC RGN FRI AND SAT...EFFECTIVELY LMTG ANY PCPN CHCS. SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE ACRS SRN NY/CNTRL PA ON SUN. MSTR XPCD TO INCR AHD OF THIS WAVE AS SFC TROF CROSSES THE RGN. AS A RESULT... TSTMS MAY DVLP ALONG THIS BNDRY SUN EVE...WHICH WOULD MOVE SEWD INTO FCST AREA. ONLY CHG TO POPS IN EXTENDED WAS TO INCLUDE SLGT CHC TSTMS DURG SUN NGT PD. TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY LATE IN THE WK AS UPR RDG MOVES CLOSER. MAXIMA NR OR SLGTLY ABV NRML CAN BE XPCD DURG THE WKEND. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WLY WINDS THIS MRNG WILL VEER TO NWLY THIS AFTN AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THRU. BREEZY WINDS TDA WILL GUST 20-25 KT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA TO IMPACT BWI/MTN. CHANCES FOR TSRA ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. DAILY ROUNDS OF SHWRS CAN BE XPCD TUE |
