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Recon Flying in to see if #TD2 has Become #Barry. Flhurricane.com
Recon Flying in to see if #TD2 has Become #Barry. Flhurricane.com
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - San Juan, PR (Puerto Rico) Selection: |
| #516108 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:03 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 955 PM AST MON JUN 4 2012 .UPDATE...A RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. QUIET WEATHER AND SAHARAN DUST WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE SAHARAN DUST CONCENTRATIONS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOT TEMPERATURES AND WEAK WINDS AT LOW LEVELS WILL HELP TO PRODUCE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THAT MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST END OF PUERTO RICO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS TONIGHT. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST WILL CONT TO CAUSE VISIBILITIES RANGING BTWN 6 TO 8 SM. AFT 05/17Z AREAS OF TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN CENTRAL INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO WITH FQT LIGHTNING...PSBL SMALL HAIL AND LIFR CONDS...BUT LIKELY TO DISSIPATE BEFORE 05/22Z. LLVL WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE BLO 5 KFT THEN E-ENE LESS THAN 20 KTS BELOW 30 KFT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM AST MON JUN 4 2012/ SYNOPSIS...SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. RIDGE PATTERN WILL STRENGTHEN MID WEEK AND REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DISCUSSION...SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...PRODUCING HAZY SKIES...AND HOT CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SURPRISINGLY...SOME SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...MAINLY OVER THE MUNICIPALITIES OF OROCOVIS...JAYUYA...AND UTUADO. OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. FOR TOMORROW...A LINE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY...INCREASING SOMEWHAT THE MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS PUERTO RICO. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS FEATURE... ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY DRIER AIR...IS EXPECTED. AVIATION...NO WX EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 77 87 78 88 / 0 0 20 10 STT 77 88 80 90 / 0 10 30 20 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #516031 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:33 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 251 PM AST MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS...SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. RIDGE PATTERN WILL STRENGTHEN MID WEEK AND REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...PRODUCING HAZY SKIES...AND HOT CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SURPRISINGLY...SOME SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...MAINLY OVER THE MUNICIPALITIES OF OROCOVIS...JAYUYA...AND UTUADO. OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. FOR TOMORROW...A LINE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY...INCREASING SOMEWHAT THE MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS PUERTO RICO. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS FEATURE... ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY DRIER AIR...IS EXPECTED. && .AVIATION...NO WX EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 77 87 78 89 / 0 0 20 10 STT 77 88 80 90 / 0 10 30 10 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #515992 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1006 AM AST MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS...SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. RIDGE PATTERN WILL STRENGTHEN MID WEEK AND REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...12Z JSJ RAOB SHOWED A SLIGHT COOLING OF THE WARM NOSE/ELEVATED MIXED LAYER COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. THIS SUGGESTS MAXT TODAY A DEG OR TWO COOLER THAN PAST FEW DAYS BUT STILL HOT WITH TEMPS LIKELY NEAR 90 OR LOWER 90S INSTEAD OF MID 90S LIKE THEY WERE OVER THE WEEKEND. PRES GRADIENT IS ALSO WEAKER AND WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONGER SEA BREEZE AND NOT AS HOT NEAR THE WATER. WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP AND LESS WIND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A SMALL SHRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW TODAY BUT OVERALL RISK SEEMS PRETTY LOW AT 10% OR LESS. BUILDING MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PUT A STRONG LID ON CONVECTION AS H7 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 10C. STILL CHANCES OF RAIN THIS WEEK LOOK PRETTY DISMAL WITH CONTINUED HOT WEATHER. && .AVIATION...VSBYS ARE IMPROVING TO P6SM AS SAHARAN AIR LAYER CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. && .MARINE...SEAS 1-3 FT BUT INCREASING TO 4-5 FT MID WEEK AS WINDS STRENGTHEN. && .FIRE WEATHER...HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF IGNITION IN THE SOUTH COAST WHERE FUELS ARE READY FOR FIRE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 90 76 90 78 / 0 0 10 20 STT 88 79 87 79 / 0 0 0 30 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #515936 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:24 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 420 AM AST MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS...A FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION TODAY. && .DISCUSSION...AN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...AS A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT...CONTINUE TO EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND LOCAL EFFECTS...STILL EXPECT AN ISOLATED LATE EVENING OR EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWER...FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS PATTERN OF EARLY MORNING/AFTERNOON SHOWERS IS ESPECIALLY EXPECTED NEXT THURSDAY DUE TO A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE SAHARAN AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE HAZY CONDS ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. VISIBILITIES ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TO RANGE BTW 6 TO 8 SM. TJSJ 04/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 20K FEET...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT. && .MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS OF UP TO 15 KNOTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 90 76 90 78 / 0 0 10 20 STT 87 79 87 79 / 0 0 0 30 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
