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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tampa Bay - Ruskin, FL (West Central Florida) Selection: |
| #516080 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:53 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 747 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .UPDATE... UPDATE THIS EVENING TO MENTION LOW POPS FOR PORTIONS OF MANATEE/SARASOTA COUNTIES FOR SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS WHICH HAS REMAINED PERSISTENT AND DROPPED LIGHT RAINFALL. WILL CARRY MENTION THROUGH 03Z AND RE-EVALUATE AT THAT POINT. OFFSHORE...LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE COASTAL WATERS SLOWLY MOVING EAST. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH THIS RAINFALL AS WELL BUT FOR NOW WILL INCREASE POPS AS NAM AND GFS SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT WHICH WOULD STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND FAVOR LATE OVERNIGHT ONSHORE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY NEAR THE COAST. DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WILL LIMIT SHOWERS SOMEWHAT THERE AND WILL KEEP DRY MENTION NORTH. ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER TO ADJUST FOR EXPANSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS REMAINING IN PLACE. && .AVIATION... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BUT MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE FROM THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE EASTERN GULF MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR TUESDAY WITH SCT TSRA POSSIBLE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 159 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012/ SHORT TERM... CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE CAROLINAS WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS DRIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THE RULE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW RETURNS WELL OFFSHORE...WITH NO RAINFALL OVER LAND AREAS. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL REVOLVE AROUND RAINFALL CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED SOUTH OF THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER BY TUESDAY EVENING...THEN REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT IN PARTICULARLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAINFALL PROBABILITIES...BUT ARE SIMILAR IN THE HANDLING OF LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES. CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DRIFTING IN OFF THE WESTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE TAMPA METRO...BUT PROBABILITIES OF MEASURE ABLE RAINFALL ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SLOWLY INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE NEED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED EACH DAY THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM... SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. ALOFT...SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH ENERGY STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION AS A TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TO OVER THE ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOWERING RAIN CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 70-MID 70S THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN LOWER TO THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD. MARINE... WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THURSDAY BEFORE A COOL FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. FIRE WEATHER... NO HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW CONTINUES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 89 76 87 / 10 20 20 30 FMY 76 90 74 88 / 10 30 20 30 GIF 74 92 74 89 / 0 20 20 30 SRQ 77 88 75 87 / 30 20 20 30 BKV 72 91 72 89 / 0 20 20 30 SPG 79 87 78 87 / 10 20 20 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #516023 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:02 PM 04.Jun.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 159 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SHORT TERM... CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE CAROLINAS WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS DRIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THE RULE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW RETURNS WELL OFFSHORE...WITH NO RAINFALL OVER LAND AREAS. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL REVOLVE AROUND RAINFALL CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED SOUTH OF THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER BY TUESDAY EVENING...THEN REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT IN PARTICULARLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAINFALL PROBABILITIES...BUT ARE SIMILAR IN THE HANDLING OF LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES. CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DRIFTING IN OFF THE WESTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE TAMPA METRO...BUT PROBABILITIES OF MEASUREABLE RAINFALL ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SLOWLY INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE NEED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED EACH DAY THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. .LONG TERM... SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. ALOFT...SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH ENERGY STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION AS A TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TO OVER THE ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOWERING RAIN CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 70-MID 70S THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN LOWER TO THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION... STREAMING UPPER LVL CLOUD DECKS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY PERIODS EXPECTED UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEARING THE 30 KNOTS RANGE AT TIMES. && .MARINE... WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THURSDAY BEFORE A COOL FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW CONTINUES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 89 76 87 / 10 20 20 30 FMY 76 90 74 88 / 10 30 20 30 GIF 74 92 74 89 / 0 20 20 30 SRQ 77 88 75 87 / 10 20 20 30 BKV 72 91 72 89 / 0 20 20 30 SPG 79 87 78 87 / 10 20 20 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-LEVY-PASCO-PINELLAS. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #515984 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 1023 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED SOUTH OF THE STATE THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH STRETCHING FROM THE CAROLINAS WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS LEAVES THE FORECAST AREA IN A WESTERLY FLOW REGIME...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE AS SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. KTBW 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...SO RAIN FREE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE INCREASING WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT BEACHES FROM PINELLAS COUNTY NORTHWARD...SO HAVE ISSUED A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST...UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 78 90 76 / 0 10 20 20 FMY 92 76 90 74 / 0 10 20 20 GIF 93 74 92 74 / 0 10 20 20 SRQ 89 77 89 75 / 0 10 20 20 BKV 92 72 92 72 / 0 10 20 20 SPG 89 79 88 78 / 0 10 20 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-LEVY-PASCO-PINELLAS. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #515934 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:23 AM 04.Jun.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 359 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY HAVING LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER. THE SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH FLORIDA DURING TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE WEAKENING AND SHEARING OUT AND REMAIN STRETCHED OUT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE GULF HELPING TO BRING DEEPER MOISTURE EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA KEEPING A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A WEAKENING COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR TODAY MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION TO POP UP WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID 90S INLAND. TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND HAVE LEFT THE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST...AND DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)... SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. ALOFT...SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH ENERGY STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION AS A TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TO OVER THE ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOWERING RAIN CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 70-MID 70S THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN LOWER TO THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION... SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BRING SOME TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 13Z...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THURSDAY BEFORE A COOL FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW CONTINUES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 78 90 76 / 0 5 20 20 FMY 92 76 90 74 / 0 5 20 20 GIF 93 74 92 74 / 0 5 20 20 SRQ 89 77 89 75 / 0 5 20 20 BKV 92 72 92 72 / 0 5 20 20 SPG 89 79 88 78 / 0 5 20 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
