Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995
Recon Flying in to see if #TD2 has Become #Barry. Flhurricane.com
Recon Flying in to see if #TD2 has Become #Barry. Flhurricane.com
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Key West, FL (Florida Keys) Selection: |
| #516261 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:14 PM 05.Jun.2012) AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012 .DISCUSSION... BREAKS IN THE UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OCCUR ED OVER THE KEYS OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. BUT THICKER HIGHER CLOUDS ARE RIGHT UPSTREAM. KBYX RADAR SHOWS ONLY A FEW SMALL SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF BOUNDARY OF OUR SERVICE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN. FORECAST REASONING HAS ONLY CHANGED A LITTLE FROM OUR PREVIOUS ISSUANCES. EXPECT THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF TRANSLATES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE STRAITS WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD. THE BIGGEST CHANGE ON THIS FORECAST IS THE EXPECTATION OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS SOONER FROM THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF OUR SERVICE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS...OBS ARE CLOSER TO THAT SOLUTION. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY DEPICTED IN THE UPPER LEVELS. GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO A MORE PESSIMISTIC MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FLOW REMAINS DEEP OUT OF THE SOUTH. A MORE SEASONAL PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ADVERTISED FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... AS WITH THE ZONES...WIND GRIDS WILL HAVE AN EARLIER ONSET OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH. NO CAUTIONARY HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST THOUGH. WINDS EVENTUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST BY THIS WEEKEND AND WILL BE GENTLE. && .AVIATION... MVFR CEILINGS...BASED AT AROUND 2000 FEET...ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW AND MTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 FROM KNOTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 5000 FEET WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT. && .CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1966...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS ONLY 79 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR COOLEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JUNE 5TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 46 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KEY WEST 79 88 80 87 / 30 30 30 40 MARATHON 79 90 80 89 / 30 30 30 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516224 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:08 AM 05.Jun.2012) AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1002 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012 .DISCUSSION... VERY WEAK SHOWERS ARE DEPICTED ON KBYX RADAR WELL OUT IN THE STRAITS...WITH LIGHTER AND LARGER SHIELD OF RAIN WELL NORTH OF THE SERVICE AREA THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. WINDS ARE GENTLE MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE CHARACTERISTICS DIMINISHING. THE EARLY MORNING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS AN EVEN MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. BUT THERE IS STILL A DRIER LAYER ALOFT UNDER A VERY SUBTLE AND SHALLOW INHIBITING LAYER. WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...THE THE PROBABILITY OF A CLOUD LINE IS A LITTLE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THOUGH. SO...NO CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING ZONE FORECAST IS NECESSARY AND AN UPDATE IS NOT PLANNED. && .MARINE... WITH THE WINDS LOSING MUCH OF THEIR MODERATE CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WILL RECOMBINE OUR EASTERN REEF AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS BACK WITH THE WESTERN ZONES ON THE MORNING MARINE UPDATE. EXPECT MAINLY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND ONLY LINGERING 15 KNOT GUSTS MAINLY FOR THE FAR WESTERN WATERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS...BASED AT AROUND 2000 FEET...ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW AND MTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TONIGHT. && .CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1936...2.11 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JUNE 5TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 76 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #516187 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 AM 05.Jun.2012) AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 435 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012 .DISCUSSION... .CURRENTLY... ANOTHER VERY QUIET EARLY JUNE NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH RADAR DETECTING NO PRECIPITATION IN THE SERVICE AREA. SKIES ARE CLOUDY ALONG THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND WINDS ON LAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALOFT... THE KEYS REMAIN UNDERNEATH WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN A LONGWAVE TROUGH ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND SEABOARD...AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A GENERAL MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS THE KEYS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...HOWEVER THE MONDAY EVENING KEY WEST SOUNDING CONTAINED A SIGNIFICANT DRY/STABLE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE LCL. THIS LOW LEVEL INHIBITION COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF A TRIGGER APPEARS TO HAVE SHUT DOWN ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR REGION THUS FAR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN AN EXTENSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LINGERING WEAK LOWER/MID RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INITIALLY WILL ERODE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND A WEAK TROUGH DRIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST. AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INFILTRATE BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL INHIBITION OBSERVED IN THE MONDAY EVENING KEY WEST RAOB WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TODAY. ALTHOUGH WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW ISLAND CLOUD LINES TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...THE EXPECTED INHIBITION JUST ABOVE THE LCL COMBINED WITH EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL LIKELY CUT DOWN ON INSOLATION WILL PROBABLY KEEP SHOWER COVERAGE ISOLATED. WILL CUT POPS BACK TO 20 PERCENT. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE KEYS...AS THE LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT THE ZONE OF MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WE SHOULD START SEEING AT LEAST SOME INTERMITTENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. OUTFLOWS FROM FREQUENT CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF MAY AFFECT OUR REGION AS WELL. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS. NO CHANGE TO TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... YET ANOTHER POTENTIALLY WET PERIOD FOR THE KEYS MAY BE SETTING UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE REGIME WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. A ZONE OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF OUR AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN EDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE KEYS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE KEYS WILL ALSO LIE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A WEAK BUT DEFINITE JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN 40 PERCENT POPS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN NUDGE UP TO 50 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY. THE RICHEST MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE MID LATITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH HEADS OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOWER/MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO REBUILD ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. A RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE KEYS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN WITHIN A PLUME OF NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PWATS...AND WOULD EXPECT A RETURN TO THE MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME MESOSCALE-DRIVEN CONVECTIVE REGIME. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS AND NO CHANGE TO TEMPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. && .MARINE... OVERNIGHT C-MAN OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EARLIER HAVE BECOME GENTLE SOUTHWEST DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY...BECOMING VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH AND INCREASING TO GENTLE TO MODERATE LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST/SOUTH BREEZES IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE SHOULD THEN CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND DECREASING AGAIN ON FRIDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEREFORE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN USUAL. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD EXCEED 15 KNOTS AT TIMES ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT ANY EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY. && .AVIATION... VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER MID MORNING TODAY...BUT MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY BE SUPPRESSED BY THE LACK OF HEATING DUE TO MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. && .CLIMATE... IN 1816...BETWEEN THE 5TH AND 8TH OF JUNE...5 SHIPS WERE LOST DUE TO SUSPECTED TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE REGION. ALSO ON THIS DATE IN 1887...THE DAILY RECORD FOR LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 69F DEGREES WAS SET...A RECORD THAT STILL STANDS 125 YEARS LATER. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KEY WEST 87 79 88 80 / 20 30 30 30 MARATHON 89 79 90 80 / 20 30 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
