Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995
Recon Flying in to see if #TD2 has Become #Barry. Flhurricane.com
Recon Flying in to see if #TD2 has Become #Barry. Flhurricane.com
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Melbourne, FL (East Central Florida) Selection: |
| #521666 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:14 PM 26.Jun.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1005 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012 .DISCUSSION... S-SW WINDS TO REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF EC FL WITH SAT/RADAR/OB TRENDS INDICATING THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY MEANDERING A LITTLE SOUTH NEAR THE FL WEST COAST THIS EVENING. LATEST WRF RUN INDICATES A FEW SHOWER/SQUALL BANDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...THEN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE NIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK WED AS DEBBY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. GUSTY WINDS WITH SHOWERS/SQUALLS AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO FORMATION THROUGH WED. MADE A FEW TWEAKS IN EVENING ZONE UPDATE FOR HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS AND FOR LATEST TRENDS. && .AVIATION...TEMPO IFR/MVFR WITH SFC WND G25-35KT IN FAST MOVING BANDS OF SHOWERS AS DEBBY MOVES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND EXITS OVER THE ATLANTIC WED AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING WINDY ON WED. && .MARINE... *NOTE TO USERS* NOAA DATA BUOY 41009 BROKE LOOSE FROM ITS MOORING ON MONDAY JUNE 25TH AT APPROXIMATELY AT 2130Z (530 PM) AND IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH. THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE BUOY CAN BE ACCESSED ON THE NDBC WEB SITE AT: HTTP://WWW.NDBC.NOAA.GOV/NWS_SPECIAL/41009.TXT (LOWERCASE) LATEST TRACK OF TD DEBBY BRINGS THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA EXITING OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC A LITTLE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF EC FL COASTAL WATERS ON WED. S-SW WINDS WILL REMAIN UP 20-25KT THEN EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO NORTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE NORTH LATER WED AS DEBBY MOVES OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC. MAIN CHANGE WITH CWF UPDATE THIS EVENING WAS TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN NEAR SHORE LEG IN THE SCA...SO ALL EC FL LEGS INCLUDED IN SCA INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THU-SUN...(PREVIOUS) DEBBY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM FLORIDA THURS. FLOW WILL BECOME W/NW WITH MARINE CONDITIONS EXEPCTED TO IMPROVE INTO FRIDAY AND REMAIN MORE FAVORABLE INTO THE WEEKEND. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ |
| #521558 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:56 PM 26.Jun.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 347 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012 .DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY...TROPICAL STORM DEBBY HAS BEGUN A FASTER PROGRESSION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND IS NOW NEAR THE COAST OF THE BIG BEND. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE CREATING A LITTLE MORE MIXING THIS AFT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS INCREASE IN DAYTIME HEATING IS ALSO ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND RAINBANDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IN MORE INTENSE PRECIP BANDS. TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BASED ON LATEST MODELS AND A RECENT INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION...TS DEBBY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND LIKELY WEAKEN TO A TD AS IT MOVES OVER LAND. BREEZY S/SW WINDS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THOUGH AS DEBBY MOVES ONSHORE WITH WINDY CONDS LIKELY DEVELOPING TOMORROW DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS DEBBY MOVES TOWARD THE COAST...NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF NORTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER AREAS THAT SEE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THU-MON...DEBBY MAY RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM FLORIDA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING INTO LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND 30 PERCENT EACH DAY FROM FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES OVER THIS PERIOD WITH FEWER CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDS WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN FAST MOVING BANDS OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DEBBY MOVES ONSHORE AND MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. S/SW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME WINDY AGAIN INTO TOMORROW. && .MARINE... *NOTE TO USERS* NOAA DATA BUOY 41009 BROKE LOOSE FROM ITS MOORING ON MONDAY JUNE 25TH AT APPROXIMATELY AT 2130Z (530 PM) AND IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH. THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE BUOY CAN BE ACCESSED ON THE NDBC WEB SITE AT: HTTP://WWW.NDBC.NOAA.GOV/NWS_SPECIAL/41009.TXT (LOWERCASE) TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...SCA ADVISORY CONTINUES OVER ALL THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO WINDS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBY. S/SW WINDS WILL REMAIN UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS OFFSHORE RUNNING 7-8 FEET. FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AS DEBBY MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST/NORTH CENTRAL FL COAST WITH SCA REMAINING IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS. THU-SUN...DEBBY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM FLORIDA THURS. FLOW WILL BECOME W/NW WITH MARINE CONDITIONS EXEPCTED TO IMPROVE INTO FRIDAY AND REMAIN MORE FAVORABLE INTO THE WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 87 77 87 / 70 70 50 50 MCO 76 89 76 90 / 70 70 50 50 MLB 78 90 77 89 / 60 70 50 50 VRB 79 90 79 89 / 60 70 50 50 LEE 76 87 75 89 / 70 70 50 50 SFB 77 90 76 91 / 70 70 50 50 ORL 76 89 76 90 / 70 70 50 50 FPR 80 90 79 89 / 60 70 50 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD- NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ |
| #521483 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:50 AM 26.Jun.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 941 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012 .DISCUSSION... TROPICAL STORM DEBBY CONTINUES A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL BANDS OF FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BANDS WITH MORE INTENSE RAINFALL WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH AND A SMALL THREAT STILL EXISTS FOR ROTATING STORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO. DID AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 20 MPH AS PROFILER WINDS AT THE CAPE STILL SHOW UP TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. ANY ADDITIONAL HEATING FROM BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER COULD PRODUCE GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH AT TIMES. THEREFORE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. && .AVIATION...MVFR CONDS EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...BUT PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE WITH FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WHICH WILL EASILY PRODUCE GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR MORE. WINDY CONDS WILL DEVELOP INTO TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS. && .MARINE...UPDATED THE MARINE FORECAST TO ADD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS...CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. FARTHER OFFSHORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES WITH WINDS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 7 TO 8 FEET. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD- NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ |
| #521410 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:50 AM 26.Jun.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 330 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT...TROPICAL STORM "DEBBY" REMAINS STALLED OVER THE NERN GOMEX THIS MORNING. MULTISPECTRAL IR IMAGERY SHOWS BOTH THE STRUCTURAL AND CONVECTIVE CHARACTER OF THE T.S. LOOKING MORE AND MORE DEGRADED WITH TIME...THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE PLUME N-E OF THE CENTER CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PROLIFIC RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ERN PANHANDLE/AND PARTS OF PENINSULAR NORTH FL. LOCALLY...MULTILAYERED BKN-OVC CLOUD COVER DOMINATES ECFL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK/SPOTTY SHOWER BANDS MOVING QUICKLY NE THROUGH PARTS OF THE CWA. TODAY/TONIGHT..."DEBBY" NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH...JUST A LUMBERING EASTWARD DRIFT. GIVEN IT`S Q-STATIONARY STATUS OVER WATER THAT IS THOROUGHLY UPWELLED...DON`T EXPECT A MUCH DIFFERENT WIND/MOISTURE REGIME OVER THE NEXT H24 WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWER BANDS...A LITTLE HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD THE NORTH/WEST. HAVE GONE WITH 80/70 N/S SPLIT TODAY...60 AREAWIDE TONIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TS. WED-THU...TOUGH FORECAST DUE TO WIND FIELDS DIFFERING BETWEEN THE LARGER SCALE MODELS AND TROPICAL STORM DEBBY`S MOVEMENT. 00Z GFS PLACED T.S. DEBBY MORE SOUTH AND MUCH STRONGER WINDS THAN THE ECMWF. EVENTUALLY PUT MORE WEIGHT ON THE ECMWF WINDS AND BACKED THEM TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO ACCOMMODATE NHC TRACK OF T.S. DEBBY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERLY WIND PATTERN WILL KEEP PULLING GULF AND CARIBBEAN MOISTURE UP THE PENINSULA KEEPING RAIN CHANCES HIGH. FRI-MON...CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FOR T.S. DEBBY HAS IT MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 INTO THE ATLANTIC FRI THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATH RESULTS IN A WEST WIND PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN SHIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHEAST MON AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE WEST BACKING TO SOUTHEAST WIND PATTERN PULLS MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THAN THEIR CLIMO 30-40 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND 20 PERCENT FOR THE EVENING. THE WESTERLY WIND PATTERN WILL ALSO TEND TO MAKE FOR A LATER START TO THE CONVECTION...KEEP IT CONFINED TO THE EAST SIDE OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND LAST LONGER INTO THE EVENING. && .AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN SHOWER BANDS. SHOULD ANY VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE CELLS OR BANDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL EASILY PRODUCE G35KT+ WHERE THEY TRACK ...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND OVERALL LACK OF HIGH INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THAT TO SOME DEGREE. && .MARINE... *NOTE TO USERS* NOAA DATA BUOY 41009 BROKE LOOSE FROM ITS MOORING ON MONDAY JUNE 25TH AT APPROXIMATELY AT 2130Z (530 PM) AND IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH. THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE BUOY CAN BE ACCESSED ON THE NDBC WEB SITE AT: HTTP://WWW.NDBC.NOAA.GOV/NWS_SPECIAL/41009.TXT (LOWERCASE) CURRENTLY...SCA WIND/SEA CONDS ARE LIMITED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SINCE DEBBY ISN`T FORECAST TO APPRECIABLY MOVE OR CHANGE IN STRENGTH THE NEXT H24...IT FOLLOWS THERE WON`T BE MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS OVER THE ATLC THROUGH TONIGHT. TENTATIVE PLAN IS TO LOWER NEAR SHORE SCA TO A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT. MAY WIND UP EXTENDING THE OFFSHORE SCA DEPENDING ON PENDING OUTPUT OF LOCAL WAVE MODEL. WED-SUN...GENERALLY A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND REGIME DUE TO T.S. DEBBY`S SLOW EASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE FROM AROUND CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH DUE TO THE TIGHTER SOUTH TO NORTH PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEBBY AND HIGHER PRESSURES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 88 77 86 76 / 80 60 70 50 MCO 90 77 87 76 / 80 60 70 50 MLB 89 78 89 77 / 70 60 70 50 VRB 90 79 89 79 / 70 60 70 50 LEE 88 76 84 74 / 80 60 70 50 SFB 91 77 88 75 / 80 60 70 50 ORL 89 77 87 75 / 80 60 70 50 FPR 89 80 90 79 / 70 60 70 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ |
