|
Show Area Forecast Discussion - Jacksonville, FL (North Florida) Selection: |
| #522803 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:50 PM 30.Jun.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 944 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012 .UPDATE...HEAT ADVISORY AND WARNING HAVE EXPIRED BUT HOT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SE GA SUNDAY FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 1 JAX 100 GNV 99 AMG 100 SSI 101 && .AVIATION...VFR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AT VQQ AND GNV 08Z-12Z DUE TO GROUND FOG. && .MARINE...WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE WATERS TO 15 KNOTS AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET. NO CHANGES EXPECTED. RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 76 99 76 98 / 0 10 20 20 SSI 81 93 77 97 / 0 10 10 10 JAX 75 98 73 97 / 0 0 10 10 SGJ 75 94 74 93 / 0 0 10 10 GNV 72 94 72 93 / 0 0 10 10 OCF 71 94 72 92 / 0 0 0 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR APPLING-BACON-BRANTLEY-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE- INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WAYNE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #522734 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:20 PM 30.Jun.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 718 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012 .UPDATE...HAVE EXTENDED HEAT ADVISORY AND HEAT WARNING OVER SE GA UNTIL 9 PM. OBS IN SE GA SHOW HEAT INDICES STILL 110 OR HIGHER AT MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE LET HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE OVER NE FL. && .AVIATION...VFR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AT VQQ AND GNV 08Z-12Z DUE TO GROUND FOG. && .MARINE...WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE WATERS TO 15 KNOTS AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET. NO CHANGES EXPECTED. RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 74 99 76 98 / 0 10 20 20 SSI 79 93 77 97 / 0 10 10 10 JAX 73 98 73 97 / 0 0 10 10 SGJ 73 94 74 93 / 0 0 10 10 GNV 70 94 72 93 / 0 0 10 10 OCF 69 94 72 92 / 0 0 0 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING- ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-INLAND GLYNN- JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE. EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR APPLING-BACON-BRANTLEY-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE- INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WAYNE. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHARLTON-CLINCH- COASTAL CAMDEN-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #522653 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:53 PM 30.Jun.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 145 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012 ...VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK... ...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES... .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT SUNDAY. A WEAK IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...BUT THINK THIS WILL PROVIDE A FEW CLOUDS WITH NO PRECIP THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN. THIS LEAVES THE FCST CONCERN THE HEAT. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE CLIMBING INTO THE ADVISORY RANGE ACROSS NE FL/SE GA...AND WILL LIKELY CLIP WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE GA. THUS...WILL KEEP CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM. ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES IS EXPECTED SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA. WILL ISSUE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE GA SUNDAY AFTN. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WHICH SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE CONVECTION. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THIS HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING UPPER TROUGHS TO PIVOT FURTHER SOUTH...HELPING TO STRENGTHEN SURFACE TROUGH. THEREFORE...CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL INCREASE FROM MID WEEK ON. WITH THE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN PATTERN THIS WEEK...ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION... WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN EXPECTED. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THIS 18Z PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A PERIOD OF FOG AT KVQQ/KGNV OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. && .MARINE... PREVAILING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS A TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCEC. RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH MONDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT INTO NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. && .HYDROLOGY... MAJOR FLOODING OCCURRING AND WILL CONTINUE ON THE ST MARY`S...SANTA FE AND SUWANNEE RIVER BASINS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 74 99 76 98 / 0 10 20 20 SSI 79 93 77 97 / 0 10 10 10 JAX 73 98 73 97 / 0 0 10 10 SGJ 73 94 74 93 / 0 0 10 10 GNV 70 94 72 93 / 0 0 10 10 OCF 69 94 72 92 / 0 0 0 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BAKER-BRADFORD- CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-HAMILTON-NASSAU-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION. GA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING- ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-INLAND GLYNN- JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE. EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR APPLING-BACON-BRANTLEY-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE- INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WAYNE. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHARLTON-CLINCH- COASTAL CAMDEN-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #522636 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:56 PM 30.Jun.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1248 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012 ...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES... ...VERY HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEKEND... .UPDATE... WITH CURRENT DEWPOINT TRENDS ABOVE FCST/GUIDANCE...AND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 90S...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE APPROACHING WARNING ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN SE GA...WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS MOST OF NE FL. THUS...HAVE EXPANDED WARNINGS TO COVER ALL OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE GA...WITH ADVISORIES FURTHER SOUTH INTO NE FL INCLUDING THE JAX METRO. && .AVIATION... VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VIS AT VQQ EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... PREVAILING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS A TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS AS NIGHT BUT NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 99 74 99 76 / 0 0 10 20 SSI 93 79 93 77 / 0 0 10 10 JAX 98 73 98 73 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 95 73 94 74 / 0 0 0 10 GNV 94 70 94 72 / 0 0 0 10 OCF 93 69 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BAKER-BRADFORD- CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-HAMILTON-NASSAU-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION. GA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING- ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-INLAND GLYNN- JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHARLTON-CLINCH- COASTAL CAMDEN-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #522590 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:38 AM 30.Jun.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 833 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012 ...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES... ...VERY HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEKEND... .UPDATE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED...WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TEMP/DEWPOINT/WINDS. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE CONCERNS FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 105-110 ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE FL...WITH 110 TO 115 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE GA. WILL KEEP CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF HEAT ADVISORIES/EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AS IS. VERY FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY UNDER STRONG RIDGING. && .AVIATION... VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VIS AT VQQ EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... PREVAILING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS A TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS AS NIGHT BUT NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK. && .HYDROLOGY... MAJOR FLOODING OCCURRING AND WILL CONTINUE ON THE ST MARY`S...SANTA FE AND SUWANNEE RIVER BASINS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 99 74 100 76 / 0 0 10 10 SSI 95 77 96 77 / 0 0 10 10 JAX 98 73 97 73 / 0 0 10 10 SGJ 94 72 93 74 / 0 0 10 10 GNV 95 72 95 72 / 0 0 10 0 OCF 93 69 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BAKER- COLUMBIA-HAMILTON-NASSAU. GA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-BRANTLEY-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND GLYNN-PIERCE- WAYNE. HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ATKINSON-BACON-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COFFEE-ECHOLS- INLAND CAMDEN-JEFF DAVIS-WARE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #522555 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:23 AM 30.Jun.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 358 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012 ...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES... ...VERY HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEKEND... .SHORT TERM... HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE CONCERNS FOR TODAY AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER GA WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO AROUND 100 ACRS SE GA. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S THERE...HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEAR 110 OR HIGHER. WILL ISSUE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR A FEW COUNTIES NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER FOR HEAT INDICES 113 OR HIGHER AND REMAINING COUNTIES OF SE GA AND NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN NE FL WILL HAVE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR HEAT INDICES AT LEAST 108. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER A WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S...SUNDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY. HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 108 TO 112 WILL STRETCH FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY NWD OVER SE GA. JESUP TO BRUNSWICK MAY GO HIGHER BUT WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH ATTM. ONLY DIFFERENCE ON SUNDAY WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO AL AND WRN GA BRINGING AN ISOLD CHANCE FOR LATE DAY CONVECTION TO THE FAR NW ZONES. ON MONDAY A SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRESS ON THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTH SLIGHTLY WEAKENING THE MID LEVEL HIGH. TEMPS MAY DROP A COUPLE DEGREES ALTHO ADVISORY CONDS MAY CONTINUE. WILL INTRODUCE A 20% CHANCE OF AFTN/EVNG SHOWERS/STORMS. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN MID WEEK AS A STRONGER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NATION`S MID SECTION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL COME BARRELING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD SE GA. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO GA. ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REAPPEAR IN THE FORECAST BY TUE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THU/FRI WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY (30-40%) ACRS SE GA. CONVECTION OVER NE FL WILL BE MORE SEA BREEZE DRIVEN AND HAVE 20-30% EACH DAY. WITH THE HOT HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE WAY AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF MVFR FROM SHALLOW FOG AT VQQ TIL 12Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. && .MARINE...PREVAILING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS A TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS AS NIGHT BUT NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK. && .HYDROLOGY... MAJOR FLOODING OCCURRING AND WILL CONTINUE ON THE ST MARY`S...SANTA FE AND SUWANNEE RIVER BASINS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 99 74 100 76 / 0 0 10 10 SSI 95 77 96 77 / 0 0 10 10 JAX 98 73 97 73 / 0 0 10 10 SGJ 94 72 93 74 / 0 0 10 10 GNV 95 72 95 72 / 0 0 10 0 OCF 93 69 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BAKER- COLUMBIA-HAMILTON-NASSAU. GA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-BRANTLEY-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND GLYNN-PIERCE- WAYNE. HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ATKINSON-BACON-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COFFEE-ECHOLS- INLAND CAMDEN-JEFF DAVIS-WARE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
