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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Melbourne, FL (East Central Florida) Selection: |
| #522789 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:32 PM 30.Jun.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 919 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012 .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LOWS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER 60S INLAND SOUTH. WINDS WILL DECREASE INTO THE NIGHT TO NEAR CALM...ESPECIALLY INLAND. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AROUND 90 ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 90S INLAND. MIN RH VALUES EXPECTED AOA 40 PERCENT FOR HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. NO FORECAST UPDATE NEEDED. && .AVIATION... PATCHES OF MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE FEW HOURS LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF PACKAGE FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH SW WINDS OVERNIGHT. SEA BREEZE WILL TURN COASTAL WINDS SOUTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... BUOYS SHOWING SW WINDS 5-10 KTS WITH SMALL SEAS AROUND 2 FT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 72 90 73 89 / 0 0 10 10 MCO 71 92 74 92 / 0 10 10 10 MLB 72 89 75 88 / 0 10 10 10 VRB 73 89 75 88 / 0 10 10 10 LEE 73 93 73 93 / 0 0 10 10 SFB 74 92 75 92 / 0 0 10 10 ORL 72 92 74 92 / 0 10 10 10 FPR 73 90 74 88 / 0 10 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #522681 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:02 PM 30.Jun.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 350 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012 .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT... NIL SIG WX AS AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE REGIONAL WX PATTERN. MCLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL INTO THE U60S/L70. SUN-MON... DRY/WARM WX PATTERN TO CONTINUE AS A WEAK SFC/LOW LVL TROF OVER THE SERN SEABOARD IS ABSORBED BY A STRONGER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MID WEST REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AXIS OF THE ATLC RIDGE OVER THE FL STRAITS TO LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...WHERE IT WILL BE COMPLIMENTED BY A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE WILL RESULT IN DEEP LYR SUBSIDENCE AND MINIMAL MOISTURE ADVECTION. WEAK PGRAD WILL ALLOW THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO FORM AND PUSH WELL INLAND...BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND A SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BLO H70 WILL LARGELY PREVENT THE FORMATION OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS: NEAR FULL SUN WILL BE TEMPERED ALONG THE COAST BY THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...TEMPS NEAR 90F WHICH IS CLOSE TO AVG FOR EARLY JULY. TEMPS L/M90S OVER THE INTERIOR GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND SLOW ADVANCEMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE. MIN TEMPS: LIGHT S/SWRLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY THE DRY AIR OVER CENTRAL FL...PUSHING SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE L/M70S. MIN TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEG F OF THESE READINGS. TUE-FRI...(PREV DISC) NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST INTO MID NEXT WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW PATTERN SHIFT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RE-CENTERS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WEAK TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD HELP A RETURN TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZES. 700MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE 9-11 DEGREES CELSIUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH IS PROHIBITIVE OF EARLY STORM INITIATION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. BELOW CLIMO RAIN CHANCES WILL MEAN HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW 90S AT THE COAST. && .AVIATION... PREVAILING VFR ALL SITES THRU 01/12Z...LCL MVFR VSBYS IN BR PSBL BTWN 01/09Z-01/12Z. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...A WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE FL STRAITS WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK TROF OVER THE ERN SEABOARD TO GENERATE A LIGHT TO GENTLE SWRLY BREEZE OVER MOST OF THE LCL ATLC WATERS. WINDS S/SE NEAR THE COAST S OF THE CAPE THRU EARLY EVNG ASSOCD WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...WINDS MAY BECOME MODERATE N OF THE CAPE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF PRESSES EWD. DRY AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY TSTM DVLPMNT. SEAS 1-2 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE. SUN-WED...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. THE ATLC HI PRES RIDGE WILL LIFT N INTO CENTRAL FL THRU DAYBREAK MON AS THE EAST COAST TROF LIFTS NEWD AND DEPARTS THE CONTINENT. PREVAILING FLOW FROM THE S/SW AT 10-15 KNOTS...BCMG SE IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH THE DAILY SEA BREEZE FORMATION. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE LOW WITH AFTERNOON ACTIVITY FORMING OVER THE MAINLAND AND STAYING THERE. SEAS 2-3FT WITH DOMINANT PERIODS 7-9SEC. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 72 90 73 89 / 0 0 10 10 MCO 71 92 74 92 / 0 10 10 10 MLB 72 89 75 88 / 0 10 10 10 VRB 73 89 75 88 / 0 10 10 10 LEE 73 93 73 93 / 0 0 10 10 SFB 74 92 75 92 / 0 0 10 10 ORL 72 92 74 92 / 0 10 10 10 FPR 73 90 74 88 / 0 10 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #522615 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:08 AM 30.Jun.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1055 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012 .DISCUSSION... DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL FL WITH PW OFF THE KXMR SOUNDING AT 0.91". A SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE H95-H85 LYR WILL BE MAINTAINED BY A STRONG MID/UPR LVL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. NERLY WINDS ABV H70 WILL TAP A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCD WITH THE ANTICYCLONE...KEEPING SKIES MCLR. SUBSIDENCE AND WRLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL GENERATE ABV AVG TEMPS WITH INTERIOR COUNTIES REACHING THE MID 90S AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COAST. SEA BREEZE FORMATION S OF THE CAPE WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F. LOWER SFC DEW POINTS ACRS THE INTERIOR WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES WITHIN 3-4F OF MAX TEMPS. NO UPDATES NECESSARY. && .AVIATION... THRU 30/17Z...AREAS MVFR CIGS BTWN FL015-025 S OF KLEE-KTIX... OTHERWISE VFR ALL SITES THRU 01/06Z. && .MARINE... NO HIGHLIGHTS...NO SIG CHANGES. FAVORABLE BOATING CONSIDERING WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS TO DISRUPT BOATING EXCURSIONS. SW/W FLOW AOB 10KTS...BCMG S/SE NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTN AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMS. SEAS 1-2 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE. A SLIGHT INCREASE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT TO 10-15 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #522524 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:26 AM 30.Jun.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 315 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012 .DISCUSSION... ...BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HOTTER THAN NORMAL... TODAY-TONIGHT...MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES COMBINED WITH WEAK CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE PENINSULA WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT. AXIS OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO OUR SOUTH AND PROVIDE A WEST/SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. THE PATTERN OF SUBSIDENCE AND WEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A HOTTER THAN NORMAL AND DRY DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COAST. THE SEA BREEZE KICKING IN ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COAST WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 90 OR THE LOWER 90S. SOME AFTERNOON FALL OF DEW POINTS IS INDICATED ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SO HEAT INDICES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN THE MAX TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT MAYBE AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE VALUES MAY REACH A LITTLE HIGHER THAN 100. CONTINUED GRADUAL MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS TONIGHT IS INDICATED WITH MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S. SUN-MON...DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AXIS OF ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTH PENINSULA AND A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WITH LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE...THE DAILY EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISION WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE FOR SHOWER/STORMS. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR ON SUNDAY AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP POPS BELOW MENTION...AND KEEP ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR INTERIOR MON AFTERNOON AS SOME MOISTURE BEGIN TO GET ENTRAINED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN HOT WITH MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A FEW UPPER 90S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. COASTAL SECTIONS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS HOT DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW THEIR RECORD VALUES OF 99-100F. TUES-FRI...NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST INTO MID NEXT WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW PATTERN SHIFT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RE-CENTERS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WEAK TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD HELP A RETURN TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZES. 700MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE 9-11 DEGREES CELSIUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH IS PROHIBITIVE OF EARLY STORM INITIATION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. BELOW CLIMO RAIN CHANCES WILL MEAN HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW 90S AT THE COAST. && .AVIATION... VFR. A FEW PATCHES OF GROUND FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...EXCEPTIONALLY GOOD DAY FOR BOATING CONSIDERING IT IS THE LAST DAY OF JUNE. THERE WILL BE NO THUNDERSTORMS TO DISRUPT BOATING EXCURSIONS. SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW TODAY WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-2 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE. A SLIGHT INCREASE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT TO 10-15 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH. SUN-WED...THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREVAILING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH THE DAILY SEA BREEZE. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE LOW WITH AFTERNOON ACTIVITY FORMING OVER THE MAINLAND AND STAYING THERE. SEAS 2-3FT WITH DOMINANT PERIODS 7-9SEC. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 93 70 93 73 / 0 0 10 10 MCO 94 72 95 74 / 0 0 10 10 MLB 91 72 90 74 / 0 10 10 10 VRB 90 72 90 73 / 0 10 10 10 LEE 93 73 95 75 / 0 0 10 10 SFB 94 73 96 75 / 0 0 10 10 ORL 94 74 96 76 / 0 0 10 10 FPR 90 71 90 73 / 0 10 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
