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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Mobile, AL (Mobile, AL Area) Selection: |
| #522743 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:44 PM 30.Jun.2012) AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 632 CDT SAT JUN 30 2012 .AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A PRIMARILY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND. /29 && ** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ** .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...WELL DEFINED RIDGE FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOVE 500 MB IS PRODUCING ADIABATIC COMPRESSION HEATING WHICH TENDS TO INCREASE STATIC STABILITY. STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MONDAY SUCH THAT CONVECTION IS STUNTED...AND THE TEMPERATURE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR...WOULD BE ABLE TO RISE ABOVE 100. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME MIXING OUT TO DECREASE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS...ENOUGH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL BE PRESENT RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX FROM 108-112 FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY. MODELS MAINTAIN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE POSITION....STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE OF FEATURES ESPECIALLY THE UPPER RIDGE NOW IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 77/BD .LONG TERM...[WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...NO CHANGES. WE SEE WEAKENING THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WHILE THE GULF SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS INTACT. THE SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...AND ALLOW THE SEABREEZE TO DRIVE ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THE WEEK. HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 4 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL... RANGING FROM 94 TO 101 MOST INLAND AREAS...AND 88 TO 94 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHEST AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL BE OVER INLAND AREAS AND RANGE FROM 100 TO 110 DEGREES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. 77/BD && .MARINE...A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHER WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEA BREEZE EFFECTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS EXPECTED...GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. 12/DS && .FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON DISPERSION LOWER 60S INLAND AND MID 40S COASTAL SUNDAY. ON MONDAY DISPERSION WILL BE MID 60S IN THE NORTHEAST REGION AND MID 30S TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. 77/BD && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 74 94 75 93 / 10 20 20 20 PENSACOLA 77 93 78 92 / 10 10 20 20 DESTIN 76 89 78 89 / 05 05 20 20 EVERGREEN 72 98 73 95 / 10 20 20 30 WAYNESBORO 70 98 71 96 / 10 20 20 20 CAMDEN 72 101 73 97 / 10 10 30 30 CRESTVIEW 71 96 73 96 / 10 10 20 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON... CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE... MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX. FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #522699 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 30.Jun.2012) AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 334 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...WELL DEFINED RIDGE FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOVE 500 MB IS PRODUCING ADIABATIC COMPRESSION HEATING WHICH TENDS TO INCREASE STATIC STABILITY. STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MONDAY SUCH THAT CONVECTION IS STUNTED...AND THE TEMPERATURE...ESPECIALLY OVER OVER THE INTERIOR...WOULD BE ABLE TO RISE ABOVE 100. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME MIXING OUT TO DECREASE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS...ENOUGH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL BE PRESENT RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX FROM 108-112 FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY. MODELS MAINTAIN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE POSITION....STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE OF FEATURES ESPECIALLY THE UPPER RIDGE NOW IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 77/BD .LONG TERM...[WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...NO CHANGES. WE SEE WEAKENING THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WHILE THE GULF SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS INTACT. THE SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...AND ALLOW THE SEABREEZE TO DRIVE ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THE WEEK. HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 4 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL... RANGING FROM 94 TO 101 MOST INLAND AREAS...AND 88 TO 94 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHEST AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL BE OVER INLAND AREAS AND RANGE FROM 100 TO 110 DEGREES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. 77/BD && .AVIATION (01/00Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCES)...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. MAY SEE SOME BROKEN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH THE STRONGER FLOW IN THE DAYLIGHT AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. 12/DS && .MARINE...A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHER WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEA BREEZE EFFECTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS EXPECTED...GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. 12/DS && .FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON DISPERSION LOWER 60S INLAND AND MID 40S COASTAL SUNDAY. ON MONDAY DISPERSION WILL BE MID 60S IN THE NORTHEAST REGION AND MID 30S TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. 77/BD && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 74 94 75 93 / 10 20 20 20 PENSACOLA 77 93 78 92 / 10 10 20 20 DESTIN 76 89 78 89 / 05 05 20 20 EVERGREEN 72 98 73 95 / 10 20 20 30 WAYNESBORO 70 98 71 96 / 10 20 20 20 CAMDEN 72 101 73 97 / 10 10 30 30 CRESTVIEW 71 96 73 96 / 10 10 20 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON... CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE... MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX. FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #522570 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:33 AM 30.Jun.2012) AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 415 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012 .SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING OFFERED BY AN AMPLIFIED AND WELL DEFINED LOW/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BRINGS AN OPPRESSIVE...HOT DAY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR COULD SEE AMBIENT TEMPERATURES RISING TO AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES...NORTH OF THE BEACHES...HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH BEACHES CLOSER TO 90. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME MIXING OUT (LOWERING OF AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS)...ENOUGH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL BE PRESENT RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 108-112 FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. CONSIDERING THIS...THE 4 AM PACKAGE EXPANDS THE CURRENT ADVISORY SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE ALL ZONES. TONIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. ALTHOUGH THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC SCALE SINKING...THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS/WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW. /10 && .LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE POSITION...STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF THE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS THEN WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WHILE THE GULF SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS INTACT. THE SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...RESULTING IN A DIURNAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 4 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL... RANGING FROM 94 TO 101 MOST INLAND AREAS...AND 88 TO 94 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHEST AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL BE OVER INLAND AREAS AND RANGE FROM 100 TO 110 DEGREES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. /22 && .AVIATION [30.12Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCES]...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME 8-13 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. /10 && .MARINE...A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF MAINTAINS A GENERAL...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET. /10 && .FIRE...A DRY AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD THROUGH SATURDAY. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...VERY PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE WELL INLAND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 97 75 96 76 / 05 05 20 20 PENSACOLA 94 78 94 79 / 05 05 10 20 DESTIN 90 78 92 81 / 05 05 10 20 EVERGREEN 100 74 101 74 / 05 05 20 20 WAYNESBORO 100 74 100 74 / 05 05 20 20 CAMDEN 102 73 101 74 / 05 05 20 20 CRESTVIEW 99 73 99 76 / 05 05 20 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH... COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE... WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX. FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA... COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA... AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #522508 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:02 AM 30.Jun.2012) AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1150 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012 .AVIATION (06Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. /29 && ** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ** .SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY IS SITTING ATOP ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SUBSIDENCE REGIME WHICH WILL STIFLE CONVECTION DESPITE THE RELATIVELY HIGH VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ~1.75 INCHES. 12Z SLIDELL SOUNDING THIS MORNING INDICATED ~95% RH UNDER A RATHER IMPRESSIVE CAP OF D(THETA)/DZ 10 CELSIUS OR KELVIN DEGREES PER KM AND MEAN RH ~ 95% BELOW 1700M. THIS MEANS HOT CONDITIONS WITH DAILY HIGHS UPPER 90S/NEAR 100 OVER THE INTERIOR. WIND BLOWING OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES IN THE LOWER 90S. CALCULATED HEAT INDICES RANGE FROM 102 TO 107 OVER THE INTERIOR TO CLOSE TO 100 ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAY WILL SEE EVEN HIGHER HEAT INDICES AS DEWPOINTS RISE SLIGHTLY. THIS INTRODUCES THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING SHOULD CALCULATIONS CONVERGE TO THAT RANGE OF RESULTS IN THE NEXT CYCLE OR TWO. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE KEPT NEAR ZERO THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...,MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...NO CHANGES. MODEL OUTPUTS CONTINUE TO BE IN CLOSE PHASE IN THE POSITION...STRENGTH...AND PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL MEAN HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE KEPT ISOLATED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. OF ALL OF THE LONG TERM MODELS...THE GFS WEAKENS THE UPPER RIDGE THE MOST THROUGH MID WEEK AND SHIFTS IT FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF. THE SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...RESULTING IN A DIURNAL RHYTHM OF ISOLATED TO LOW END CHANCE/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AS HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...RANGING FROM 95 TO 102 MOST INLAND AREAS...AND 88 TO 94 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHEST AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL BE OVER INLAND AREAS AND RANGE FROM 100 TO 110 DEGREES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. /77 && .MARINE...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST AFTERNOON WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET. /77 && .FIRE WEATHER...A HIGH STACKED FROM THE SURFACE TO THE UPPER AIR WILL KEEP CONVECTION MINIMAL. DRY AIR WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL AVERAGE 40 TO 45 PERCENT SATURDAY AND 45 TO 50 PERCENT SUNDAY. DISPERSION IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND 70 TO 100 SUNDAY. /77 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 95 72 94 73 / 05 00 05 10 PENSACOLA 93 75 88 77 / 05 00 05 10 DESTIN 92 77 91 78 / 05 00 05 10 EVERGREEN 100 71 100 72 / 05 05 05 10 WAYNESBORO 100 73 98 71 / 05 10 05 10 CAMDEN 100 71 102 71 / 05 05 05 10 CRESTVIEW 97 71 98 71 / 05 00 05 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH... COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...MONROE...WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX. FL...NONE. MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AND WAYNE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
