|
Show Area Forecast Discussion - Brownsville, TX (Brownsville, TX Area) Selection: |
| #524076 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:57 PM 04.Jul.2012) AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 844 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012 .DISCUSSION...JUST PUBLISHED MINOR GRID UPDATE FOR SKY COVERAGE. ANVIL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION SOUTH OF DEL RIO MOVING IN THIS EVENING. THE ACTUAL CONVECTION IS OROGRAPHICALLY TIED AND NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THIS AREA JUST A BUMP IN MID CLOUDINESS. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES. /68-JGG/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. MVFR CIG/VISBY MORE LIKELY IN BROOKS AND JIM HOGG COUNTY IN THE PREDAWN AND IMMEDIATELY POST SUNRISE HOURS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT WILL PICK BACK UP MID TO LATE MORNING THURSDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. /68-JGG/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW. MARINE...AFTER EVALUATING THIS AFTERNOONS WINDS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION OPTED TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR GULF WATERS FOR TONIGHT. WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ON WIND BUT EXPECT A 3 TO 4 KNOT INCREASE FROM LAST NIGHT WHICH WOULD PUT US INTO THE CRITERIA. ALSO NUDGED SEAS UP SLIGHTLY OWING TO THE STRONGER WINDS. /68-JGG/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN A PRETTY SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING INDICATES THAT THIS RIDGING IS STARTING TO DRY OUT THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMS OVER THE REGION. AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES OVER DEEP SOUTH TX DUE TO THE RIDGING THIS WILL RESULT IN A END OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN ACROSS THE REGION. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY LINGER OVER THE MARINE AREAS TO ALLOW A BRIEF SHOWER TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF...BUT WILL HANDLE THIS WITH ONLY SOME SILENT POPS FOR THE MOMENT. AS THE ATMS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT OVER THE REGION THE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL START TO GRADUALLY CREEP UP AS THE SUNSHINE BECOMES A LITTLE MORE PLENTIFUL AND THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES START TO INCREASE. THE MET HIGH TEMP GUIDANCE HAS ITS USUAL SLGT WARM BIAS VERSUS THE MAV. THIS MAY BE HANDLING THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC SITUATION A BIT BETTER SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER BIAS OF THE MET FOR HIGHS. FOR LOWS...MAV AND MET ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT AND WILL GO PRETTY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE TWO MODELS HERE. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...QUIETER PATTERN STILL IN THE OFFING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MIDLEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SPIN CENTERED ON KANSAS. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE WEST TOWARD UTAH ON SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK TROUGH TUCKS UNDERNEATH INTO EASTERN TEXAS. THIS MAY BRING SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY TO THE REGION...ALLOWING THE SEABREEZE TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE. STILL NO SIGNAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OR HEAVY RAIN THROUGH DAY 7. TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S...WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 REPORTS A SE WIND AROUND 15 KTS WITH SWELLS AT 4 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 10 SECONDS. CLOSER TO THE BAY...MTRS REPORT CONDITIONS GENERALLY RUNNING FROM 15G22KTS. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE SPRAWLED OVER THE GULF OF MEX TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STEADY PGF THROUGHOUT TOMORROW NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP THE GULF WATERS SOLIDLY IN SCEC CRIT WITH THE BAY WATERS SEEING SCEC CONDITIONS MAINLY DURING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NO SCAS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE REGION. MODEST WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RUNNING 10 TO 12KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS...MAINLY 1 TO 2 FEET. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170- 175. && $$ |
| #524018 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:12 PM 04.Jul.2012) AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 604 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. MVFR CIG/VISBY MORE LIKELY IN BROOKS AND JIM HOGG COUNTY IN THE PREDAWN AND IMMEDIATELY POST SUNRISE HOURS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT WILL PICK BACK UP MID TO LATE MORNING THURSDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. /68-JGG/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW. MARINE...AFTER EVALUATING THIS AFTERNOONS WINDS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION OPTED TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR GULF WATERS FOR TONIGHT. WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ON WIND BUT EXPECT A 3 TO 4 KNOT INCREASE FROM LAST NIGHT WHICH WOULD PUT US INTO THE CRITERIA. ALSO NUDGED SEAS UP SLIGHTLY OWING TO THE STRONGER WINDS. /68-JGG/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN A PRETTY SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING INDICATES THAT THIS RIDGING IS STARTING TO DRY OUT THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMS OVER THE REGION. AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES OVER DEEP SOUTH TX DUE TO THE RIDGING THIS WILL RESULT IN A END OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN ACROSS THE REGION. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY LINGER OVER THE MARINE AREAS TO ALLOW A BRIEF SHOWER TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF...BUT WILL HANDLE THIS WITH ONLY SOME SILENT POPS FOR THE MOMENT. AS THE ATMS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT OVER THE REGION THE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL START TO GRADUALLY CREEP UP AS THE SUNSHINE BECOMES A LITTLE MORE PLENTIFUL AND THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES START TO INCREASE. THE MET HIGH TEMP GUIDANCE HAS ITS USUAL SLGT WARM BIAS VERSUS THE MAV. THIS MAY BE HANDLING THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC SITUATION A BIT BETTER SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER BIAS OF THE MET FOR HIGHS. FOR LOWS...MAV AND MET ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT AND WILL GO PRETTY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE TWO MODELS HERE. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...QUIETER PATTERN STILL IN THE OFFING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MIDLEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SPIN CENTERED ON KANSAS. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE WEST TOWARD UTAH ON SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK TROUGH TUCKS UNDERNEATH INTO EASTERN TEXAS. THIS MAY BRING SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY TO THE REGION...ALLOWING THE SEABREEZE TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE. STILL NO SIGNAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OR HEAVY RAIN THROUGH DAY 7. TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S...WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 REPORTS A SE WIND AROUND 15 KTS WITH SWELLS AT 4 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 10 SECONDS. CLOSER TO THE BAY...MTRS REPORT CONDITIONS GENERALLY RUNNING FROM 15G22KTS. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE SPRAWLED OVER THE GULF OF MEX TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STEADY PGF THROUGHOUT TOMORROW NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP THE GULF WATERS SOLIDLY IN SCEC CRIT WITH THE BAY WATERS SEEING SCEC CONDITIONS MAINLY DURING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NO SCAS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE REGION. MODEST WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RUNNING 10 TO 12KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS...MAINLY 1 TO 2 FEET. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170- 175. && $$ |
| #523970 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 PM 04.Jul.2012) AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 351 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW. && .MARINE...AFTER EVALUATING THIS AFTERNOONS WINDS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION OPTED TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR GULF WATERS FOR TONIGHT. WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ON WIND BUT EXPECT A 3 TO 4 KNOT INCREASE FROM LAST NIGHT WHICH WOULD PUT US INTO THE CRITERIA. ALSO NUDGED SEAS UP SLIGHTLY OWING TO THE STRONGER WINDS. /68-JGG/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN A PRETTY SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING INDICATES THAT THIS RIDGING IS STARTING TO DRY OUT THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMS OVER THE REGION. AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES OVER DEEP SOUTH TX DUE TO THE RIDGING THIS WILL RESULT IN A END OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN ACROSS THE REGION. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY LINGER OVER THE MARINE AREAS TO ALLOW A BRIEF SHOWER TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF...BUT WILL HANDLE THIS WITH ONLY SOME SILENT POPS FOR THE MOMENT. AS THE ATMS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT OVER THE REGION THE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL START TO GRADUALLY CREEP UP AS THE SUNSHINE BECOMES A LITTLE MORE PLENTIFUL AND THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES START TO INCREASE. THE MET HIGH TEMP GUIDANCE HAS ITS USUAL SLGT WARM BIAS VERSUS THE MAV. THIS MAY BE HANDLING THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC SITUATION A BIT BETTER SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER BIAS OF THE MET FOR HIGHS. FOR LOWS...MAV AND MET ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT AND WILL GO PRETTY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE TWO MODELS HERE. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...QUIETER PATTERN STILL IN THE OFFING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MIDLEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SPIN CENTERED ON KANSAS. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE WEST TOWARD UTAH ON SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK TROUGH TUCKS UNDERNEATH INTO EASTERN TEXAS. THIS MAY BRING SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY TO THE REGION...ALLOWING THE SEABREEZE TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE. STILL NO SIGNAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OR HEAVY RAIN THROUGH DAY 7. TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S...WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 REPORTS A SE WIND AROUND 15 KTS WITH SWELLS AT 4 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 10 SECONDS. CLOSER TO THE BAY...MTRS REPORT CONDITIONS GENERALLY RUNNING FROM 15G22KTS. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE SPRAWLED OVER THE GULF OF MEX TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STEADY PGF THROUGHOUT TOMORROW NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP THE GULF WATERS SOLIDLY IN SCEC CRIT WITH THE BAY WATERS SEEING SCEC CONDITIONS MAINLY DURING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NO SCAS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE REGION. MODEST WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RUNNING 10 TO 12KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS...MAINLY 1 TO 2 FEET. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-175. && $$ |
| #523917 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:54 PM 04.Jul.2012) AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 149 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN A PRETTY SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING INDICATES THAT THIS RIDGING IS STARTING TO DRY OUT THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMS OVER THE REGION. AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES OVER DEEP SOUTH TX DUE TO THE RIDGING THIS WILL RESULT IN A END OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN ACROSS THE REGION. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY LINGER OVER THE MARINE AREAS TO ALLOW A BRIEF SHOWER TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF...BUT WILL HANDLE THIS WITH ONLY SOME SILENT POPS FOR THE MOMENT. AS THE ATMS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT OVER THE REGION THE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL START TO GRADUALLY CREEP UP AS THE SUNSHINE BECOMES A LITTLE MORE PLENTIFUL AND THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES START TO INCREASE. THE MET HIGH TEMP GUIDANCE HAS ITS USUAL SLGT WARM BIAS VERSUS THE MAV. THIS MAY BE HANDLING THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC SITUATION A BIT BETTER SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER BIAS OF THE MET FOR HIGHS. FOR LOWS...MAV AND MET ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT AND WILL GO PRETTY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE TWO MODELS HERE. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...QUIETER PATTERN STILL IN THE OFFING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MIDLEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SPIN CENTERED ON KANSAS. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE WEST TOWARD UTAH ON SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK TROUGH TUCKS UNDERNEATH INTO EASTERN TEXAS. THIS MAY BRING SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY TO THE REGION...ALLOWING THE SEABREEZE TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE. STILL NO SIGNAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OR HEAVY RAIN THROUGH DAY 7. TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S...WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. && .MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 REPORTS A SE WIND AROUND 15 KTS WITH SWELLS AT 4 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 10 SECONDS. CLOSER TO THE BAY...MTRS REPORT CONDITIONS GENERALLY RUNNING FROM 15G22KTS. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE SPRAWLED OVER THE GULF OF MEX TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STEADY PGF THROUGHOUT TOMORROW NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP THE GULF WATERS SOLIDLY IN SCEC CRIT WITH THE BAY WATERS SEEING SCEC CONDITIONS MAINLY DURING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NO SCAS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE REGION. MODEST WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RUNNING 10 TO 12KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS...MAINLY 1 TO 2 FEET. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 93 79 91 / 10 10 0 10 BROWNSVILLE 78 95 78 93 / 10 10 0 10 HARLINGEN 76 96 76 96 / 10 10 0 10 MCALLEN 77 97 77 97 / 10 10 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 100 76 99 / 10 10 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 91 80 86 / 10 10 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #523906 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:24 PM 04.Jul.2012) AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 118 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A LOOK AT THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING INDICATES THAT THIS IS STARTING TO DRY OUT THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT ANY CLD OR FOG FORMATION FOR THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCT LOW CLDS MAY FORM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THURS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. EXPECT THIS WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE THREE TAFS SITES TODAY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RESULT INTO A MORE ACTIVE MONSOONAL PATTERN FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A DRIER PATTERN IN PLACE FOR THIS 4TH OF JULY ACROSS S TEXAS WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG CAP OVERHEAD LIMITING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR CWA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWER COULD BE POSSIBLE ONCE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT EXPECT A BROAD COVERAGE ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST AND INTO THE 100S IN THE WEST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREMENT DURING DAYTIME HEATING AS SURFACE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE CWA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 70S AND THE 80S ALONG THE COAST AND SPI. THURSDAY CONDITIONS REMAIN SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL NOT AS WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH EVEN LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL NOT BE RULE OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...700MB RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY IS PROGGED TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS EXPECTS AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FRIDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TO ALLOW SEABREEZE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT. MARINE... TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SURFACE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL INCREASE SEAS UP TO 4 FEET. SEAS BEGIN TO LOWER THURSDAY AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE BAY AND GULF CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN REASONABLY BENIGN WITH STEADY PGF. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURS NIGHT BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY. LIGHT EAST WINDS FRIDAY WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 94 79 93 / 10 20 0 10 BROWNSVILLE 78 95 78 93 / 10 20 0 10 HARLINGEN 77 97 76 94 / 10 20 0 10 MCALLEN 78 97 78 97 / 10 10 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 100 76 97 / 10 10 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 81 90 / 10 20 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #523855 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:36 AM 04.Jul.2012) AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 825 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. EXPECT THIS WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE THREE TAFS SITES TODAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RESULT INTO A MORE ACTIVE MONSOONAL PATTERN FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A DRIER PATTERN IN PLACE FOR THIS 4TH OF JULY ACROSS S TEXAS WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG CAP OVERHEAD LIMITING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR CWA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWER COULD BE POSSIBLE ONCE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT EXPECT A BROAD COVERAGE ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST AND INTO THE 100S IN THE WEST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREMENT DURING DAYTIME HEATING AS SURFACE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE CWA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 70S AND THE 80S ALONG THE COAST AND SPI. THURSDAY CONDITIONS REMAIN SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL NOT AS WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH EVEN LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL NOT BE RULE OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...700MB RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY IS PROGGED TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS EXPECTS AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FRIDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TO ALLOW SEABREEZE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT. MARINE... TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SURFACE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL INCREASE SEAS UP TO 4 FEET. SEAS BEGIN TO LOWER THURSDAY AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE BAY AND GULF CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN REASONABLY BENIGN WITH STEADY PGF. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURS NIGHT BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY. LIGHT EAST WINDS FRIDAY WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #523830 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 04.Jul.2012) AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 348 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RESULT INTO A MORE ACTIVE MONSOONAL PATTERN FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A DRIER PATTERN IN PLACE FOR THIS 4TH OF JULY ACROSS S TEXAS WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG CAP OVERHEAD LIMITING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR CWA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWER COULD BE POSSIBLE ONCE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT EXPECT A BROAD COVERAGE ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST AND INTO THE 100S IN THE WEST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREMENT DURING DAYTIME HEATING AS SURFACE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE CWA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 70S AND THE 80S ALONG THE COAST AND SPI. THURSDAY CONDITIONS REMAIN SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL NOT AS WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH EVEN LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL NOT BE RULE OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...700MB RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY IS PROGGED TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS EXPECTS AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FRIDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TO ALLOW SEABREEZE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT. && .MARINE... TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SURFACE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL INCREASE SEAS UP TO 4 FEET. SEAS BEGIN TO LOWER THURSDAY AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE BAY AND GULF CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN REASONABLY BENIGN WITH STEADY PGF. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURS NIGHT BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY. LIGHT EAST WINDS FRIDAY WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 80 94 79 / 10 10 20 0 BROWNSVILLE 95 78 95 78 / 10 10 20 0 HARLINGEN 95 77 97 76 / 10 10 20 0 MCALLEN 98 78 97 78 / 10 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 100 78 100 76 / 10 10 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 81 88 81 / 10 10 20 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #523793 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 AM 04.Jul.2012) AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1231 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT RIGHT OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS WANING AND WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL SEE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 030 OVERNIGHT AT THE TERMINALS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND WILL STAY ISOLATED ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AROUND MID MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 48 STATES WILL INCREASE SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT ANY CONV POTENTIAL TO LOCALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD ACTIVITY SIMILAR TO TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME 10 TO 20 % POPS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. FOR TEMPS...THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE MET MAINTAINING A BIT OF A WARMER BIAS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE MET HIGHS ESPECIALLY OUT WEST WHERE SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN A LITTLE LOWER VERSUS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. LONG TERM...500 MB RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. HOWEVER THE ECMWF/GFS AND CMC GUIDANCE HINT THAT ANOTHER INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY MOVE INTO TX THIS WEEKEND AND MAY LINGER ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY DESTABILIZING THE ATMS ENOUGH TO BUILD THE PCPN CHCS A BIT. AT THIS TIME THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE MAY REMAIN CONFINED MORE TO THE UPPER TX COAST AND THE COASTAL BEND AREAS. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP DEEP SOUTH TX OUT OF THE BETTER PCPN CHCS. SO FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY SIGNFICANT PCPN IN THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME AND WILL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS RESOLVE THIS. RUN TO RUN GFS MEX MOS GUIDANCE IS PRETTY STABLE AND MODEL TO MODEL COMPARISON WITH THE ECMWF/GFS AND CMC IS PRETTY DECENT. SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK IS ABOVE AVERAGE. WILL GO AT OR ABOVE MEX MOS HIGH TEMPS AND NEAR MEX MOS MIN TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH THE 3 TO 7 DAY RANGE. MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEX WILL MAINTAIN A PRETTY STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE SE FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THE BAY AND GULF CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN REASONABLY BENIGN THROGUH TOMORROW NIGHT DUE TO THE FAIRLY STEADY PGF. THE PGF NEAR THE BAY MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TOMORROW TO RESULT IN BRIEF SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE. FOR NOW WILL NOT POST ANY ADVISORIES. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
