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Tropical Storm #Barry Has Formed in the SW Bay of Campeche. Flhurricane.com
Tropical Storm #Barry Has Formed in the SW Bay of Campeche. Flhurricane.com
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tampa Bay - Ruskin, FL (West Central Florida) Selection: |
| #524037 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:32 PM 04.Jul.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 822 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012 .UPDATE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOSTLY ENDED FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH. TO THE SOUTH...SOME STORMS ARE ONGOING BETWEEN VENICE AND PORT CHARLOTTE...AND OTHERS MAY MOVE INTO HIGHLANDS...WESTERN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS SHOULD THEY SURVIVE THAT LONG. FOR THE MOST PART...WE WILL BE RAIN-FREE FOR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AFTER SUNSET. JUST MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. UPDATED ZONES WILL BE OUT BY 10 PM. && .AVIATION... REMAINING CONVECTION NEAR PGD WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND HAVE LEFT THE 5-6SM HZ IN A FEW OF THE TAFS FOR EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND LEADING TO MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE...WINDS ARE MOSTLY WEST TO NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. SEAS ARE 1 FOOT OR LESS AT THE BUOYS WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS TO MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDS TONIGHT. JUST MINOR TWEAKS PLANNED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #523898 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:56 PM 04.Jul.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 148 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...DOMINATED MUCH OF THE CONUS. THIS RIDGING CONTAINED AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON ITS SOUTHEAST SIDE...NEAR FL. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC BROADLY RIDGED WEST INTO THE GULF...WITH ITS AXIS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FL. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - FRIDAY)... THROUGH FRI...EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGES...CROSSING FL. THE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC HOLDS IN PLACE AS IT RIDGES WEST...WITH ITS BROAD AXIS MEANDERING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL FL. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST IN THE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE. THIS ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS IN LIGHT FLOW...AND SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE HIGHEST ODDS WILL BE OVER INLAND SECTIONS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HIT THE LOW-MID 90S INLAND AND AROUND THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL RUN IN THE 70S WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE INTERIOR. .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)... STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A L/W TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DOWN TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. U/L RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS AN EXTENSION OF THE STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO REMAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH WILL DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...AND KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. VERY WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO PRIMARILY ONSHORE FLOW EACH DAY WHICH WILL PUT THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW CLIMATIC NORMALS. && .AVIATION...RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR SRQ NORTHWARD SO WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR TPA...PIE AND SRQ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT VCTS TO PUSH INLAND BEFORE SUNSET IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SITES. FURTHER SOUTH AND INCLUDING LAL...WILL MAIN VCTS INTO THE EVENING WITH POSSIBLE LINGER VCSH. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY TO LATE MORNING HOURS. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC...ACROSS FL...TO THE GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. && .FIRE WEATHER... HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 76 91 76 91 / 20 40 20 40 FMY 74 92 75 92 / 30 40 20 40 GIF 74 93 74 94 / 30 40 20 40 SRQ 75 90 75 91 / 30 40 20 40 BKV 69 92 69 92 / 10 30 10 30 SPG 79 90 78 90 / 20 40 20 40 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #523854 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:35 AM 04.Jul.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 931 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE NE WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REACHES WEST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FL. AREA RAOBS INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THE SURFACE RIDGE LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH TODAY AS IT CONTINUES WITH A WEAK GRADIENT THAT ALLOWS AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO FORM. THESE ARE INGREDIENTS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST ODDS ACROSS INLAND WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FL IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE TO BE THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM BUT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ROBUST STORMS...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED. && .AVIATION...LIGHT AND VRB FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES START TO SHIFT INLAND. EXPECTING SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM MAINLY SOUTH OF PIE/TPA WITH LINGERING VCSH AFTER 00Z FOR LAL...FMY AND RSW. FMY AND RSW MAY SEE A SHIFT TO EASTERLY FLOW BY THE EVENING HOURS AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHIFTS WESTWARD. VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND WILL TEMPO FOR TSRA AS NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO ONSHORE IN AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOODS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NEXT ISSUANCE...OUT BY 10 AM. && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #523817 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:23 AM 04.Jul.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 403 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012 .SHORT TERM (INDEPENDENCE DAY - FRIDAY)... CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. INDEPENDENCE DAY... THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH MAIN LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR ASCENT BEING THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA BREEZES. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING A BIT OF A JET MAX OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS AT H25 TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE HANDLED WELL WITH THE FEATURE EVIDENT NOSING INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING AND ALREADY HELPING TO AID SOME ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND THE MERGER OF THE GULF/ATLANTIC SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON...THIS SPEED MAX ALOFT MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS...BUT WITH H5 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -8C AND -10C...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCALES THIS MORNING GIVEN THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES INLAND FROM THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S MOST LOCALES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AT THE BEACHES. TONIGHT... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY IN THE EVENING...WITH OUTFLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE THEN PUSHING TOWARD THE COAST AND AIDING ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EVENING...WITH PRIMARILY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES WHERE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA BREEZES SERVING AS THE PRIMARY MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE POPS MOST LOCALES EACH DAY...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S MOST LOCALES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AT THE BEACHES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. .LONG TERM... STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A L/W TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DOWN TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. U/L RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS AN EXTENSION OF THE STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO REMAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH WILL DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...AND KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. VERY WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO PRIMARILY ONSHORE FLOW EACH DAY WHICH WILL PUT THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW CLIMATIC NORMALS. && .AVIATION... PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SCT CLOUDS AROUND 2000-3000 FEET THIS MORNING...WITH LCL MVFR CIGS AROUND 025... LIFTING TO 4000-5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SCT THUNDERSTORMS WITH LCL MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH THE BEST CHANCE VCNTY LAL-PGD-FMY-RSW. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW HEADLINE THRESHOLDS. && .FIRE WEATHER... HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 76 91 77 / 40 20 40 20 FMY 93 75 92 75 / 50 30 50 30 GIF 94 74 93 74 / 50 30 40 30 SRQ 91 74 90 74 / 40 30 40 20 BKV 92 69 92 70 / 20 10 30 10 SPG 91 78 90 78 / 40 20 40 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
