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| #530262 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:06 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1058 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS WEEK...ACCOMPANIED BY WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRIER AND WARMER AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A HUMID AIR MASS OVERHEAD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1045 PM SUNDAY...MAJORITY OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION HAS EITHER DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE ILM CWA. NEVERTHELESS... CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RE- DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CARRY AN OVERNIGHT POP ALONG THE COAST AND EXTEND IT ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE WEST BANK OF THE GULF STREAM. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE S/W TROF DIVING SE...WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE LONG WAVE TROF OVERNIGHT. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE S/W IMPULSE WILL AFFECT THE INLAND LOCATIONS OF THE ILM CWA...MAINLY THE NC PORTIONS OF THE FA. AS A RESULT... POPS INLAND WILL BE DROPPED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM. PARTICULARLY ALONG THE WEST BANK OF THE GULF STREAM. THE RAIN COOLED AIR WILL MODERATE OVERNIGHT...BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE INLAND CAROLINAS MONDAY WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT TO THE NORTH TUESDAY...WHILE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DIRECT A TROPICAL AIR MASS INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING RATHER WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED TO AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST OR TWO...THE BIGGER THREAT MAY BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 2.0+ INCHES ALONG THE COAST WITH SLOW (10 MPH) STORM MOTIONS ANTICIPATED. SREF ENSEMBLES SHOW RATHER IMPRESSIVE +RA POTENTIAL WITH 0.25 INCH/6HR POPS AT 70 PERCENT FOR COASTAL SC MONDAY...A VERY HIGH NUMBER FROM THIS MODEL. WEST OF I-95 THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIER AND THE UPPER TROUGH MAY PASS TOO EARLY IN THE DAY RELATIVE TO THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. OUR POPS RANGE FROM 30 PERCENT WEST OF I-95 TO 60 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. MONDAY NIGHT WE`LL BE IN BETWEEN UPPER TROUGHS WITH A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXPECTED. A SECOND RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 12Z MODELS DISPLAY FAIRLY LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE...WITH THE NAM FAVORING A LATER ARRIVAL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WE PREFER THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION WHICH MATCHES THE 00Z ECMWF MUCH BETTER...AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR OUR HIGH POPS INLAND TUESDAY AND ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING. CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL PRECIP WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM THE HOT READINGS WE`VE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED: 85-88 AT THE BEACHES TO LOWER 90S INLAND BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 70-74 RANGE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH RUNNING DOWN THE EAST COAST WEAKENS A BIT AS IT FLATTENS OUT AND SHIFTS EAST BY LATE WED INTO THURS. THEREFORE DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEEPER W-NW DRIER FLOW. PCP WATER VALUES DROP FROM AROUND 2.2 INCHES WED MORNING DOWN TO 1.6 BY WED EVENING AND DOWN LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES BY THURS EVENING. THEREFORE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AND COUNTING ON CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ISOLATED. MODELS CHANGED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH REGARD TO H5 TROUGH WITH THE LATEST RUNS PROVIDING FOR A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING FROM 588 DEM TO 591 DEM. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRIER MID LEVELS. BY LATE SAT INTO SUN MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS MORE UNIFORM RETURN FLOW SETS UP FORM FROM SFC UP THROUGH H7 AND THEN VEERS TOWARD THE W-SW THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOCALIZED CONVECTION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. SUMMER-LIKE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AS GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 90S MOST DAYS AND 70S AT NIGHT. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH VALID PERIOD...WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR/ DUE TO FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA. ANTICIPATE THESE TO CONTINUE ON A DISSIPATING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THOUGH ISOLATED -RA COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT...AND WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LINGERING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS...MVFR/AND POSSIBLY IFR INLAND/ IS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. HOWEVER...FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON OPACITY OF CLOUD DEBRIS OVERNIGHT. ANY RESIDUAL FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH FEW/SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ANTICIPATED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1045 PM SUNDAY...TROF OF LOW PRESSURE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN AND INLAND OF BOTH CAROLINAS...WHILE THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH WILL RIDGE BACK TO THE SE U.S. COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS ALL POINTS TO A CONTINUED SW WIND DIRECTION. PIECE OF THE MID-LEVEL S/W TROF TO TRACK ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PINCHED SFC GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT...POSSIBLY RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 KT. SIG SEAS TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT...EXCEPT POSSIBLY UP TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. THE 5-6 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE SIG SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS COMBINED COULD REACH/PAST SCEC THRESHOLDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ILM NC WATERS. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15 KNOTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE AT NIGHT AND NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 3-4 FT...WITH 5-FOOTERS SHOWING UP PERIODICALLY EAST OF CAPE FEAR WHERE THE EFFECTIVE FETCH LENGTH WILL BE LONGEST. INCREASED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE BIG STORY. MODELS SHOW AT LEAST TWO SEMI-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS: ONE MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND TUESDAY EVENING. EVEN OUTSIDE OF THESE "WINDOWS" WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP GIVEN THE WARM... HUMID AND UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER INLAND CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEREFORE EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW A MORE SOLID 15 KTS TO 20 KTS WED. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT TUES WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 5 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BUT MAINTAIN UP TO 15 KTS THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA |
| #530261 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 952 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .UPDATE... EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND THE RIVER PARISHES...AS HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO BE IN EXCESS OF 108 DEGREES FOR MORE THAN TWO HOURS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. 32 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ SHORT TERM... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DID NOT REALLY OCCUR TODAY WHICH WAS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO WORK IN ALOFT THAT ALONG WITH NO REAL TRIGGER TO GET CONVECTION GOING REALLY WORKED AGAINST CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BIG ISSUE FOR THE IMMEDIATE TIME FRAME WILL BE THE HEAT EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL IN THE THE 90S OVER THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. HIGH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE AREAS NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN EXCLUDING THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST FOR MONDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY REALLY HIGHLIGHTS THE AREAS THAT THE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD CLIMB TO 108 AND GREATER FOR MORE THAN 3 TO 4 HOURS. RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW ARE PRETTY LOW AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON. 13/MH LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. OUR AREA IS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE HIGH AND THE ONLY REAL CHANCE OF PRECIP WOULD BE FROM LITTLE IMPULSES THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH. FOR RIGHT NOW IT SEEMS THAT MOST OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THIS COULD DEFINITELY CHANGE AS THESE FEATURES ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WELL IN ADVANCE. OVERALL POPS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK RANGE FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OCCURRING FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 90S EACH DAY. 13/MH AVIATION... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...KMCB AND KHUM MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG SHORTLY BEFORE AND AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. 11 MARINE... TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. AWAY FROM ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT MAY OCCUR...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS DURING THE PERIOD. 11 DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF AREA ON MONDAY. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 75 98 73 96 / 10 20 20 20 BTR 76 97 75 96 / 10 10 20 10 ASD 77 95 77 95 / 10 20 20 20 MSY 78 93 78 93 / 0 20 20 20 GPT 78 93 78 92 / 10 20 20 30 PQL 77 94 78 92 / 10 30 20 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST FELICIANA. GM...NONE. MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530260 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1034 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME BOUNDARIES STILL EXIT ACROSS THE AREA. ONE BEING THE STALLED FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION ARE ALSO PRESENT. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE OUTFLOWS AND COLLIDING BOUNDARIES. FEEL AS IF THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ONLY A LITTLE LIFT NECESSARY TO TRIGGER ACTIVITY. THAT LIFT MAY BE IN THE FORM OF A LLJ IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH AMPLE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL HELP INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HAVE SHIFTED CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST TO AFTER 08Z WITH MODEL GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATING SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF BLOWOFF FROM EARLIER CONVECTION CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF DIGS THRU THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STALLED OUT WEAK FRONT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SEABREEZE MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SO WILL FCST AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. PRECIP WATERS HAVE DECREASED SOME BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY IN THE SOUPY AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BY CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH MOST AREAS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 245 PM SUN...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH AN UPPER TROF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...BUT NOT ON THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF EACH WAVE. OVERALL SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE THROUGHOUT WITH SFC TROUGH RE- DEVELOPING INLAND MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CAP POPS NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER PATTERN SLOWLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 645 PM SUNDAY...NOT PLANNING ANY MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE NEXT TAF CYCLE. GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS LATE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. FOG/STRATUS LIFTS QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE BUT REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN SCTD SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 245 PM SUN...UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS WITH LOCALLY LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH VEERING WIND FROM SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY AS YOU MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. WAVES ARE GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WINDS BLOWING 10-15KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. PREVIOUS FORECAST...WEAK BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND WITH E/NE WINDS. WINDS ARE SE/SW ELSEWHERE...BUT SHOULD BECOME SW OVER ALL AREAS BY LATER TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT DISSIPATES. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 4 FEET WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS CONTINUING OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 KT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS MON AFTN. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FOOTERS LIMITED TO OUTER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS THRU MON AFTN. LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 245 PM SUN...OVERALL EXPECT S/SW WINDS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD. SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND SPEEDS OF STRONGEST WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO WED...WILL CONTINUE TO CAP WINDS AT 20KT AND SEAS AT 5FT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF 6FT SEAS AND STRONGER WINDS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WED. THU AND FRI MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH S/SW WINDS AOB 15KT AND SEAS 5FT OR LESS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTC |
| #530259 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1038 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND EAST MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH ON TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... FORECASTS WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM TRENDS. ALL POPS WERE REMOVED FROM THE FCST AS CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AS IT ADVECTED AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS A WEAK HIGH PRES SYS SETTLES OVERHEAD...NEARLY CALM WINDS AND MODERATE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S...WILL CAUSE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG. DETERMINING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG STILL REMAINS A CHALLENGE...BUT THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH FAIR WEATHER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AMPLIFYING OHIO VALLEY TROUGH FOR MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK RIDGING ON MONDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES WITH THE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENING TO THE WEST. MORNING STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT STRATO-CU MAY LINGER ACROSS WESTERN ZONES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE LIKELY MOVING WELL INLAND. IF CLOUD COVER IS LESS THAN EXPECTED...TEMPS ACROSS THE CITY/INTERIOR SHOULD RISE TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS...MID 80S. TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY JUST WEST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THE TROUGH...BUT MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY. WITH CONTINUED LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW...STRATUS LOOKS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS INTERIOR WITH SLIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...MAINLY 60S...EXPECT AROUND 70 NYC/NJ METRO. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS TIME FRAME. MINOR DIFFERENCES ON OVERALL MAIN FEATURES NOTED WITH REGARD TO MEAN ENSEMBLE/GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS TIME FRAME. ON TUESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING TROUGH/LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL STEER THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEAST. AS THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT APPROACHES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...AND ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SCT ACTIVITY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK TROUGH DOES LINGER HOWEVER...AND WOULD EXPECT MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AT THIS TIME. NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...I FEEL THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF TIME TO IRON OUT DETAILS. TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW...AND POSSIBLE BROKEN CLOUD COVER. A MOS BLEND FOLLOWED. THEREAFTER...A SLOW WARM UP IS EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH FLATTENS...AND MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. WILL FOLLOW AN HPC/MEX/MEN BLEND WHICH SHOULD HELP SMOOTH OUT ANY MOS DIFFERENCES. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH PERHAPS CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING/POSITION OF FRONT/TROUGH. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER THE AREA...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 5 KT UNTIL AT LEAST 13Z MONDAY. NEARLY CALM WINDS AND ADEQUATE LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TO FORM BOTH MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF STRATUS CLOUDS WITH CIGS RANGING FM 8 HND AT KFOK TO ARND 28 HND AT KDXR. AREAS OF STRATUS WILL CONT TO EXPAND AND ADVECT WEST WITH A SHALLOW LOW LVL EAST WIND FLOW. THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE...BKN...SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IS MEDIUM TO HIGH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING AT ANY ONE TERMINAL IS LOW. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FCST TO IMPROVE MONDAY. HOWEVER...TIMING ON IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MONDAY MORNING IS UNCERTAIN. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST UNDER 10 KT STARTING ARND 15K AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MONDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING. MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. .TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MARGINAL VFR POSSIBLE MAINLY IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS AND THEN EAST OF THE WATERS. EAST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST MID TO LATE WEEK. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MID WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NV/PW |
| #530258 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1032 PM AST SUN JUL 29 2012 .UPDATE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EARLY...WITH THE SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASING ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE MOVES CLOSER. INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO BOTH...TO ALTER THE WEATHER...SKY COVER...POPS AND WINDS IN SEVERAL ZONES. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF SEMANTIC ALTERATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS CWF...MAINLY TO THE SYNOPSIS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. && .AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE MORE FREQUENT MVFR...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS...IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS/DEVELOP OVER THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM AST SUN JUL 29 2012/ SYNOPSIS...TUTT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS SLIGHTLY WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...WITH AXIS NOW NEAR 56 WEST CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL HELP TIGHTEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME DECENT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION FLARING UP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF ITS AXIS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND OF BARBADOS. DISCUSSION...A SMALL SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO 1.80 INCHES OR SO ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS QUICK SURGE OF MOIST AIR WAS SUFFICIENT TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND GOOD DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER PUERTO RICO. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WERE VERY EXPLOSIVE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WEST INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO TAPER OFF OVER LAND AFTER SUNSET LEAVING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT LEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE APPROACHING ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING INCREASING DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS ITCZ MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BE LIFTED NORTHWARDS ACROSS AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT THE MOISTURE TO PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE ON MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD WITH THE PASSAGE AND TRAILING THE WAVE...AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE AND SQUALLY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED EACH DAY AS DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ WILL CONTINUE TO POOL ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AVIATION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH...INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS WELL AS SHRA/TSRA THROUGH AT LEAST 29/22Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR IN AND AROUND TJMZ...TJPS AND POSSIBLY TJBQ. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10-20 KTS FROM SFC TO 10 KFT. WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME +TSRA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 79 90 78 89 / 50 70 60 60 STT 81 90 80 89 / 60 70 70 70 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #530257 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1033 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... THE KEY WEST EVENING RADIOSONDE BALLOON WAS LAUNCHED INTO AN ATMOSPHERE WITH A VERY DRY 850-650MB LAYER. STILL...THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A SHORT-LIVED LOW-TOPPED SHOWER THAT DEVELOPED WITHIN A LOWER KEYS CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST DOWNWIND OF KEY WEST AROUND SUNSET. OTHER THAN THAT...FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DETECTED BY KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS OR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. A REVIEW OF THE VERY HELPFUL ANIMATIONS OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT SHOW A NARROW SAHARAN AIR LAYER PLUME MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AT PRESENT... WHILE A RIBBON OF MUCH RICHER MOISTURE LIES JUST UPSTREAM FROM GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TO CENTRAL CUBA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DETECTED CURRENTLY OVER AND WEST OF THE CAY SAL BANK. AS THIS RIBBON OF MOISTURE APPROACHES THE SERVICE AREA OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY IN KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES LATE. FORECASTS ARE ALREADY TAKING THIS SCENARIO INTO ACCOUNT. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WERE NECESSARY. && .MARINE... LIGHT TO GENTLE MAINLY EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM BY DAYBREAK. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER AFTER SUNRISE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION IN THE TAF UNTIL EVIDENCE AND TIMING ARE MORE CERTAIN. && .CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2009...THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 86 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 29TH. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530256 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:23 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1015 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 1015 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND SKIES ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS...AND TO ADD AREAS OF DENSE GROUND FOG. 700 PM UPDATE...STRATIFORM SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST ARE GRADUALLY MOVING OUT TO SEA AND THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE INTERIOR ATTM...BUT THERE ARE A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS STILL OCCURRING FROM TIME TO TIME. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 9 PM OR SO. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER STILL POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...WE START A GRADUALLY CLEARING PROCESS THIS EVENING OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING DIMINISHES. THE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH QUITE A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TOWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... FOG WILL BURN OFF IN MOST AREAS BY 9AM. WEAK HIGH PRESS SHOULD LEAD TO A PARTLY SUNNY DAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY...LEADING TO A RELATIVELY WEAK SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL START MOVING NORTHEAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING FROM NW TO SE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND WEDNESDAY HOWEVER AS THE SYSTEM STALLS...WAITING ON AN UPSTREAM KICKER BEFORE IT FINALLY MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN THE BEST FORCING AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER MESOLOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AS A SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THEREFORE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN FOR THESE PERIODS AS WELL. EVENTUALLY THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND KICKING OFF MORE INTENSE CONVECTION THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S DURING THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST. READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S ARE LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT ARCS INTO THE AREA. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR TO LIFR WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN FOG. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 9 AM MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END LATE THIS EVENING. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... SPECIAL NOTE: COMMUNICATIONS CIRCUIT STILL OUT AT KRKD AND KLEW. TAF FOR KRKD WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE "AMD NOT SKED" UNTIL COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS ARE RESOLVED. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE NO ESTIMATE OF WHEN A RETURN TO SERVICE IS EXPECTED. GRAY MAINE /KGYX/ RADAR DATA WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE DUAL POLARIZATION RADAR INSTALLATION AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SITE IN GRAY MAINE IS IN PROGRESS. DURING THE INSTALLATION AND FOLLOW UP TESTING OF THIS NEW EQUIPMENT... RADAR DATA WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE. THIS COULD TAKE UP TO TEN DAYS TO COMPLETE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #530255 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:21 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1010 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. WHILE MON AND TUES ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE DRY...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OUT WEST. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WED INTO SAT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 1015 PM UPDATE...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE EASTERN ZONES THOUGH THESE ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OR DISSIPATE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. ALL SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND EXPECT A DRY NIGHT. WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE MAXIMIZED THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THANKS TO THE COOLER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE VERY DRY MID LEVELS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT THINK IT IS TOO SMALL A CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS RATHER SPLIT...WITH THE MET GUIDANCE HIGHER THAN THE MAV. EXPECTING AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE TUESDAY...SO STAYED CLOSER TO THE MET GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * SCT TO ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY * UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE AREA WELL INTO THE WEEKEND * EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WORK WEEK. DETAILS... MODELS/PATTERN... 12Z MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST EACH OTHER. STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE OF THE PATTERN AS WELL AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS STATIONED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE SYSTEMS WILL CREATE A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LASTING AT LEAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WITH SEVERAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL KEEP THE PATTERN QUITE ACTIVE WITH SOME HOPE FOR DRY WEATHER BY PERHAPS SUNDAY. GFS MODEL IS A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF...BUT OVERALL GENERAL TRENDS ARE THE SAME. TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT OFFSHORE BY THE MORNING HOURS. SHORTWAVE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WITH DRY AIR ALOFT EXPECT IT TO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE DIURNAL SHOWER AS DIURNAL CU WILL BE IN ABUNDANCE. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOW 80S POSSIBLE AS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION...A COASTAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING ON EXACT PLACEMENT BUT HAVE INSERTED IN HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS SAID REGIONS. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...FOG AMY DEVELOP IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ESP ACROSS LOW LYING REGIONS. WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY... SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DUE TO MESOSCALE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...ITS HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE MODEST INSTABILITY AND SOME SHEAR DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO HAVE KEPT THUNDER PROBABILITIES INTO THE GRIDS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST AS OF NOW MINUS THE CAPE DUE TO OCEAN WAVE. BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS THICKNESS LEVEL BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MAINLY LOW 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS WITH MID TO LOW 60S FOR MIN TEMPS FOR THE WEEK. WEEKEND... LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE WEEKEND AS MODELS HAVE DIVERGED AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER KEPT SATURDAY WET WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A POTENT SHORTWAVE MERGING THROUGH. TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST AS MID 80S ARE POSSIBLE EXPECT ALONG THE COOLER COAST. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES WILL AGAIN EXPAND INLAND FROM THE COAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OCCURS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING VFR/MVFR TO OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOW PROB OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR MONDAY. KBDL TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TOMORROW. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW CHANCE FOR SCTD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ESP WEST OF ORH ALLOWING FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY...FOG POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH COAST. WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE WED INTO FRIDAY. WITH ANY WX... TEMPO MVFR-IFR PSBL. SLY FLOW PREVAILING. FOG PSBL ALONG THE SE SHORELINE TERMINALS. && .MARINE... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOIST AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY DUE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S AND SE WATERS ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RLG/DUNTEN |
| #530254 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:21 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 911 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAD ENDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND AN INCREASE IN CIN VALUES. WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FREE OF PRECIPITATION. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY WITH WEAK ONSHORE WINDS PERSISTING. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER VERY WARM AFTERNOON FORECAST. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAYS 59 AND 281 FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING. AFTERWARD...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES THAT MAY OCCUR GENERALLY EAST OF US281 DRG THE 10-13Z MONDAY PERIOD. LGT SFC SOUTH WIND OVERNIGHT WITH LGT/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY AFTN FOLLOWING THE SEA BREEZE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 76 97 76 97 76 / 10 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 74 96 74 96 75 / 10 10 10 10 10 LAREDO 78 104 77 104 79 / 10 10 10 0 0 ALICE 75 100 74 100 75 / 10 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 76 92 78 93 79 / 10 10 10 10 10 COTULLA 75 102 75 102 74 / 10 10 10 0 0 KINGSVILLE 75 98 74 99 76 / 10 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 78 92 77 91 80 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530253 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:14 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1005 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY THEN MOVE EAST TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... UPDATE 2205 EDT: SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO WESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK. MIGHT SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN WASHINGTON COUNTY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR IN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION FELL TODAY. FORECAST UPDATES SENT OUT. UPDATE 1920 EDT: SHOWERS LINGERED ALONG THE COAST AT 7 PM...ESPECIALLY IN ZONE 17. TRIMMED BACK INLAND POPS GIVEN TRENDS FROM VARIOUS OBSERVING SYSTEMS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END OVER DOWNEAST AND COASTAL MAINE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS AS IT DOES SO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TODAY`S RAIN WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP DOWNEAST AND ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. IN THOSE AREAS, LOWS WILL HOLD IN THE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. BUT FURTHER NORTH, THOSE AREAS THAT REMAINED DRY SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE TOMORROW, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING 850MB MOISTURE. THEREFORE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN DOMINANT FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. HOWEVER AS THIS RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN BY LATE TUESDAY CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHS OF AROUND 80 ELSEHWERE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE AREA LOOKS TO BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND A COASTAL LOW WHICH LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH. DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW THIS LOW WILL EVOLVE. THE 12Z NAM AND GEM GLOBAL BRING IT UP RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHICH WOULD RESULT IN RAIN AND SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND THE 0Z EURO, WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING NOTABLY WELL LATELY, KEEP THE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BROUGHT DOWN POPS A BIT FROM LAST NIGHT`S PACKAGE BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OPTED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY COULD SINK ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS UNCERTAIN. A COLD FRONT COULD THEN APPROACH LATER SUNDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HELP KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COULD THEN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT KBHB AND KBGR THROUGH THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT LATE TONIGHT, BUT VFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AT THE SOUTHERN SITES OWING TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 07Z-12Z. SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY...EXCEPT IN ANY LATE NIGHT FOG OVER KBGR AND KBHB. A SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES. THIS MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME WHICH COULD REDUCE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: RAIN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1NM OR LESS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, KEEPING WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW MOVING UP THE COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS COULD REACH NEAR SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/OKULSKI |
| #530251 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:06 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1001 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND EAST MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH ON TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... FORECASTS WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM TRENDS. ALL POPS WERE REMOVED FROM THE FCST AS CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AS IT ADVECTED AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS A WEAK HIGH PRES SYS SETTLES OVERHEAD...NEARLY CALM WINDS AND MODERATE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S...WILL CAUSE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG. DETERMINING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG STILL REMAINS A CHALLENGE...BUT THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH FAIR WEATHER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AMPLIFYING OHIO VALLEY TROUGH FOR MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK RIDGING ON MONDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES WITH THE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENING TO THE WEST. MORNING STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT STRATO-CU MAY LINGER ACROSS WESTERN ZONES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE LIKELY MOVING WELL INLAND. IF CLOUD COVER IS LESS THAN EXPECTED...TEMPS ACROSS THE CITY/INTERIOR SHOULD RISE TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS...MID 80S. TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY JUST WEST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THE TROUGH...BUT MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY. WITH CONTINUED LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW...STRATUS LOOKS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS INTERIOR WITH SLIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...MAINLY 60S...EXPECT AROUND 70 NYC/NJ METRO. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS TIME FRAME. MINOR DIFFERENCES ON OVERALL MAIN FEATURES NOTED WITH REGARD TO MEAN ENSEMBLE/GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS TIME FRAME. ON TUESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING TROUGH/LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL STEER THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEAST. AS THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT APPROACHES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...AND ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SCT ACTIVITY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK TROUGH DOES LINGER HOWEVER...AND WOULD EXPECT MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AT THIS TIME. NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...I FEEL THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF TIME TO IRON OUT DETAILS. TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW...AND POSSIBLE BROKEN CLOUD COVER. A MOS BLEND FOLLOWED. THEREAFTER...A SLOW WARM UP IS EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH FLATTENS...AND MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. WILL FOLLOW AN HPC/MEX/MEN BLEND WHICH SHOULD HELP SMOOTH OUT ANY MOS DIFFERENCES. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH PERHAPS CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING/POSITION OF FRONT/TROUGH. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER THE AREA...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 5 KT UNTIL AT LEAST 13Z MONDAY. NEARLY CALM WINDS AND ADEQUATE LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TO FORM BOTH FOG AND MVFR/IFR STRATUS CLOUDS. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR MORE STRATUS FOR THE NYC/NJ METRO AREA MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. MVFR FOG IS MORE LIKELY INLAND AT TERMINALS LIKE KSWF...KHPN AND KTEB AFT 06Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IS MEDIUM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING AT ANY ONE TERMINAL IS LOW. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FCST TO IMPROVE MONDAY. HOWEVER...TIMING ON IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MONDAY MORNING IS UNCERTAIN. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST UNDER 10 KT STARTING ARND 15K AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MONDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING. MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. .TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MARGINAL VFR POSSIBLE MAINLY IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS AND THEN EAST OF THE WATERS. EAST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST MID TO LATE WEEK. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MID WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NV/PW |
| #530250 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:05 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 955 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... .UPDATE...LATE AFTERNOON DIURNAL ACTIVITY WAS PRETTY UNIMPRESSIVE... HOWEVER SOME RESIDUAL SMALLER SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS HAVE PRODUCED ISOLATED EARLY EVENING STORMS WITH ONE PARTICULARLY STRONG CELL EARLIER NW OF ORLANDO. REMAINING SHOWERS/STORMS...WHILE SMALL AND NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN SO WE MIGHT NEED TO KEEP IN SMALL STORM THREAT ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 03Z/04Z AS IN THE CURRENT GRIDS. && .MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10KT SOUTH OF THE CAPE ...A LITTLE STRONGER 10-13KT TO THE NORTH WITH SEAS RUNNING AROUND 2FT AND A LITTLE HIGHER WELL OFFSHORE VOLUSIA COUNTY. && .UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI .RADAR/IMPACT GRAPHICS...WEITLICH $$ |
| #530249 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:53 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 942 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... CONVECTION INTENSITY HAS GREATLY DECREASED THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WELL WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z KCHS SOUNDING STILL SHOWING JUST OVER 2 INCH PWATS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEEPEST MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THAT IS WHERE THE BULK OF EVENING CONVECTION REMAINS. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH COVERAGE CONTINUING TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION PRIOR TO SUNRISE. EVENING CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN CREATED QUITE A RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. MADE TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO CAPTURE CURRENT TRENDS...BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER MILD EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. THE OVERALL COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE BEST ON MONDAY...BUT STILL AT LEAST SCATTERED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE EACH DAY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS FARTHER WEST CLOSER TO THE INLAND TROUGH. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO INCREASE AS CELL AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A MOIST AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO COMMAND ATTENTION ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL SWING IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH BEGINNING TO WEAKEN A BIT ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD. THIS WILL CREATE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY LIMITING CONVECTION A BIT. STILL...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE PROPAGATES INLAND. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD THIS EVENING. ADDED A FEW HOURS OF VCTS AT KSAV...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE KEEPING THE THREAT FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS AT KSAV TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. OVERNIGHT...LINGERING MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN PERSISTENT HAZY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR. ALSO...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR EXCEPT FOR SHORT-LIVED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS COULD REACH UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT AT TIMES. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #530248 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:51 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 942 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... THE LATEST ANALYSIS OF SURFACE DATA INDICATES A BROAD WEAK MULTI- CENTERED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FORM MARITIME CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH AN ~1012MB LOW EAST OF CAPE COD. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THIS LOW ACROSS EASTERN NC AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. DEEP CONVECTION WAS CONFINED SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS PAST AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SEA BREEZE CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TIDEWATER...AND NE NC. THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED AS OF 9 PM. ALOFT...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE LIFTING ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA WITH A TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NUMEROUS SPOKES/WEAK DISTURBANCES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE ROUNDING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH. THE CLOSEST OF THESE WAVES IS MOVING ACROSS KY/TN INTO UPSTATE SC THIS EVENING HELPING TO AID THE CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT WIND ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING OVER THE EAST AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SE. THIS APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN AIDED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN SHORE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THIS PATCHY FOG WILL BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN GOING FORECAST RATIONALE WITH THIS ISSUANCE. OVERALL...FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD UPR LVL TROUGH, WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS TRANSLATES TO MAINLY DIURNAL SLIGHT CHC TO LOW END CHC POPS EACH DAY...NOT FAR FROM TYPICAL CLIMO VALUES. MODEL DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE DATA SHOWING A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING NW FLOW ALOFT TO CROSS THE RGN...THE FIRST OF THESE ARRIVE FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTN/EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL/WEAKER S/W`S GLANCING THE REGION TUE/WED. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC, WEAKENING FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE, AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHEST CHC FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE AREA (FVX- AKQ-ONX) AFTER 20Z/4PM ON MONDAY. INCREASING PW VALUES AND RATHER NEBULOUS WIND PATTERN, TYPICAL FOR LT JULY, WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR SOMEWHAT ERRATIC AND SLOW FORWARD MOVEMENT OF STORMS, SO WHILE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY SUB-SEVERE, A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SVR WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS PRIMARY CONCERN. ATTENDANT WEAK COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/UPSTATE NY BY 12Z/WED. WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED MCS ACTIVITY/REMNANT CONVECTION EMANATING FROM THIS FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/MS VLY INTO THE LOCAL AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER PERIOD OF ISO/SCT LT AFTN/EVENING TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG TROUGHS. FOR TEMPERATURES, LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS MAINLY IN THE U60S TO L70S. HIGH TEMPS FM THE 80S TO AROUND 90F. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOCATING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP DEAMPLIFY THE EAST COAST TROUGH THRU THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PROGGED ACROSS DELMARVA THURSDAY MORNING WITH SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHING SW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL VA TO SOUTH CENTRAL VA. SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NE WITH SFC TROUGH SAGGING BACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WITH THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST GFS/EURO SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF MOISTURE FIELDS...LOCATION OF TROUGH AXIS AND TIMING OF VORT MAXIMAS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...FOR THURS AFTERNOON MODELS TEND TO AGREE ON SFC/MID LEVEL TROUGH PLACEMENT...AND THUS SFC BOUNDARY...KEEPING BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING PRECIP EAST OF I-95 WHERE BEST MOISTURE SOURCE WILL ALSO BE. SFC HIGH TO THEN BUILD INTO EASTERN TN/WESTERN NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. DRASTIC DIFFERENCE EXIST BETWEEN MOISTURE FIELDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE EURO BEING CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST. EURO ALSO MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH 500MB CLOSED LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS OPPOSED TO GFS OPEN WAVE. TEND TO THINK THE ECMWF IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND MOIST SO HAVE TENDED TO TREND THE LONG TERM FORECAST/POPS TO THE GFS. DUE TO THE GFS BEING DRIER...MEX MOS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHT WARMER THAN ECMOS. HAVE OPTED TO TREND MORE TOWARD MEX GUIDANCE WHICH WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW GIVES CONCERN FOR FOG AT THE TAF SITES EARLY MONDAY MORNING PER LOCAL CLIMATE STUDIES. FOG WAS NOT AN ISSUE SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE WINDS WERE NOT EASTERLY EITHER. RAIN FELL AT SBY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AND THEREFORE...THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR EXISTS. THE NEXT TAF SITE WOULD BE ECG WHERE MOS FCSTS ARE FAIRLY BULLISH AND INCLUDED IFR THERE BY 08Z. THERE WILL BE A SLGT CHC TO CHC OF TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHEST CHANCES AT ORF/ECG. OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .MARINE... WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL RULE THE WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LAND AND SEA INTERACTIONS WILL BE DOMINATE AT TIMES. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIME. && .EQUIPMENT... UPDATE: KAKQ RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT ON-SITE. RADAR TECHNICIANS HAVE DETERMINED THAT RADAR MOTOR HAS FAILED AND NEEDS TO BE REPLACED. THOSE REPAIRS WILL BE COMPLETED MONDAY MORNING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM |
| #530247 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:48 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 936 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WHILE SEVERAL WAVES LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PASS CLOSE TO THE AREA. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY MAY FINALLY MOVE BACK NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AT 900 PM, THE LAST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN OUR REGION WERE DISSIPATING AROUND READING, PHILADELPHIA AND WILMINGTON WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE LINGERING CUMULUS SHOULD LIFT, FLATTEN AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS WELL DURING THE BALANCE OF THE EVENING HOURS. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WITH A LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT, PATCHY STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THOSE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED SOME RAIN TODAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S IN MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, DRIER AIR IS STARTING TO MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WHILE TODAY WAS MORE COMFORTABLE THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, MONDAY SHOULD BE EVEN BETTER. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ON MONDAY AND WE BECOME MORE ZONAL ALOFT. ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION, DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE AGAIN, THERE WILL STILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AROUND SO THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD DROP HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS WE GET A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BUT OUT OF A MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WE COULD SEE ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE OUR INLAND PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES ARE WARMER THAN OUR SOUTHERN AND COASTAL COUNTIES. MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE UP-COMING WEEK AND ITS EFFECTS ON THE WEATHER. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. IT LOOKS NOW LIKE THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING ITS WAY NORTH UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH, SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PASS CLOSE TO THE AREA. MEANWHILE, THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SEND MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES/VORT MAXES ACROSS THE ARE DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PW VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREFORE, WE KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT, SO IT IS HARD TO SAY IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR, BUT ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS. AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND, THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT, BEFORE A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHER TIER OF THE COUNTRY/SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS MAY END UP BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE COOLEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S IN MANY PLACES, BEFORE WARMING UP AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND AROUND 90 IN MANY AREAS. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THE LAST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DISSIPATING AROUND 0100Z. NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH A LIGHT WIND AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY SOME MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG, ESPECIALLY AT AND AROUND THOSE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED SOME RAIN TODAY. OUR MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TAF SITES IN THIS CASE ARE KRDG AND KACY. KTTN MAY HAVE SOME ISSUES AS WELL DUE TO THE RESIDUAL AFFECTS OF SATURDAY`S HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD ALSO AFFECT KMIV DUE TO IT`S CLIMATOLOGY AND IT`S PROXIMITY TO DELAWARE BAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT OUR REGION AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS ON MONDAY AND IT SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER, THERE IS CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET ON THE OPEN WATER AND AROUND A FOOT OR LESS ON THE BAY THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND PICK UP A BIT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY OUT OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OUTLOOK... WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK PERIOD. A GENERAL EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WHICH MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE WINDS AND WAVES. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... LOOKING AT THE ET-SURGE GUIDANCE, IF TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAINED AT A HALF A FOOT, THE OCEAN FRONT WOULD GET VERY CLOSE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WE APPROACH THE FULL MOON. && .RIP CURRENTS... FOR MONDAY THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET. A CONTINUED SOUTHEAST SWELL WITH AN 11 SECOND PERIOD SHOULD RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #530246 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:45 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 843 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .UPDATE... EVENING FORECAST UPDATE. && .DISCUSSION... QUIET EVENING WEATHER WISE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY EVENING. ONLY FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO TAKE OUT POPS FOR THE EVENING. SHOULD HAVE A DRY NIGHT TIME WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER KCDS IN TX PANHANDLE. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED. 39 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ DISCUSSION... OUTFLOWS FROM OVERNIGHT NEARSHORE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL ZONES THIS AFTN AS SEABREEZE LINGERS CLOSER ALONG THE COAST. ISO PCPN NOTED WITH THESE BOUNDARIES THUS FAR. NOT EXPECT- ING INCREASED COVERAGE ESPECIALLY AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES NORTH TO- WARD THE HIGH. WX PATTERN FOR SE TX THIS WEEK TO BE DOMINATED BY THE UPPER RIDGE PERSISTING JUST EAST OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER (MORE OR LESS) OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. DESPITE MOS TRENDS OF LOWER(ING) POPS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK MODEL TRENDS STILL HINTING AT PCPN GIVEN THE PROGS OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RE-INTRODUCE LOW POPS BACK INTO THE GRIDS ATTM. SO WILL KEEP WITH THE CURRENT FCST OF NO SIGNIFICANT POPS UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND FOR NOW. OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE. 41 MARINE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RESULT IS GENERALLY ONSHORE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND FAIRLY LIGHT. TURN SLIGHTLY MORE OFFSHORE WITH SOUTHWEST OCCURRING MAINLY AT NIGHT AS A WEAK LAND BREEZE. SIG WAVE HEIGHTS MOSTLY 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A SMALL AREA OF NEAR 3 FOOT WAVES EXPECTED OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS WINDS FRESHEN SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO A BIT TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. 04 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 78 100 77 99 77 / 10 10 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 78 97 77 96 77 / 10 10 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 83 92 82 92 82 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530245 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:36 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 830 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .UPDATE...HEAT INDICIES HAVE ALL FALLEN TO 106 OR BELOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OAKDALE WHICH IS A CHRONIC OUTLIER. TAKING A PEAK AT MONDAY IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL BE A BIT DRIER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL LET THE MID CREW HASH THAT OUT WITH THE NEW MODEL RUNS. OTHERWISE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE AT ALL LEVELS, BUT ENHANCED AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS OUT OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. SWEENEY && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ AVIATION... AN ISOLATED SHOWER HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF LFT THIS EVE. THIS STORM IS TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE... LOOKING AT VFR WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 19 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ DISCUSSION... MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS BEEN BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS HELPING TO SO FAR SUPPRESS CONVECTION. MAY BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A STORM BEFORE SUNSET IF SEA BREEZE TRIES TO MOVE INLAND...BUT WILL GO WITH A SILENT 10 IN THE FIRST PERIOD...AS IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP IT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY SUNSET. THE MAIN STORY HAS BEEN THE HEAT TODAY. WITH LACK OF CONVECTION AIR TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S. ALSO...DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS NOT MIXED DOWN. SO WITH RECENT DAMP CONDITIONS KEEPING MOIST LEVEL NEAR THE SURFACE...DEW POINTS ARE STAYING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SO THE HEAT INDEX OR APPARENT TEMPERATURE IS RUNNING AROUND 108F DEGREES...EVEN IF YOU CORRECT THE USUAL HIGHER DEWPOINT READINGS AT SOME OF THE RURAL AWOS SITES. THEREFORE...THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED AGAIN TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND THUS CONVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HOT. BORDERLINE CALL FOR MONDAY ON HEAT ADVISORY. IF MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER FORECAST AREA...MIGHT SEE SOME BETTER SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL HELP MIX DOWN DRIER AIR...AND PRODUCE A LITTLE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY VALUES...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE GRIDS RANGE FROM 103F TO 107F...AND JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...INSTEAD OF 107F TO 110F. SO AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AND LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT RE-ADDRESS THIS. RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST. RUA MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS TO PREVAIL. RUA && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 76 95 77 93 76 / 10 10 10 10 10 KBPT 75 95 77 93 76 / 10 10 10 10 10 KAEX 74 100 75 98 75 / 10 10 10 10 10 KLFT 76 95 76 94 76 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530244 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:33 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 400 PM HST SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE WEEK...AND PROBABLY LONGER. THE WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THIS EVENING AS A SHOWER BAND CLEARS THE ISLANDS. A TROUGH PASSING SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL BOOST SHOWERS AND WIND SPEEDS LATER TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND TRADE WINDS WILL TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY. MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND TYPICALLY DRY WEATHER ARE LIKELY FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... AN AREA OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS THAT HIT THE ISLANDS YESTERDAY EVENING HAS BROKEN UP AND MOVED OFF TO THE WEST. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER DRY THIS EVENING. A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND IS MOVING WEST AROUND 20 MPH AND WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TROUGHS LIKE THESE CAN CARRY QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE...AND CAN PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF RAIN UNDER THE RIGHT CONDITIONS. WHAT USUALLY PRODUCES LOTS OF RAIN IS WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES UNDER A LOW ALOFT DIGGING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LOW ALOFT NORTHWEST OF KAUAI BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW IT DIGGING TOWARD THE ISLANDS. THE LOW MAY ACTUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH NO GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SINCE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN EASTERLY...THE SHOWERS WILL FALL OVER MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS...AND WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF FOR THE PARCHED LEEWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME RATHER DRY AND STABLE ON WEDNESDAY ONCE THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY TO THE WEST. DRY SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE TROUGH PASSING SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS COMBINED WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL BOOST TRADE WINDS A BIT...AND LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE SURFACE WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON THURSDAY WITH MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... WE EXPECT NO AIRMETS WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND WEATHER AT THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE... WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS TONIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE WINDIER AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THIS ADVISORY WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A MODERATE SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY...PEAK ON TUESDAY...THEN LOWER SLOWLY ON WEDNESDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE ALENUIHAHA AND PAILOLO CHANNELS...MAALAEA BAY...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. && $$ DONALDSON |
| #530243 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:32 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 930 PM EDT Sun Jul 29 2012 .NEAR TERM [Until 6 AM Monday Morning]... Updated at: 930pm Convection is starting to wind down across the area as activity pushes south toward the coastline. Very interesting night. Most storms were sub-severe. However a few rose to the level of severe including the probable tornado in Wakulla County. Be that as it may, the rest of the evening should be quiet. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will push offshore and linger into the morning hours. No major weather concerns are anticipated. && .SHORT TERM [6 AM Monday Morning Through Wednesday Night]... The large scale pattern will only slowly change. Subtropical high centered over S/Cntrl Plains with ridging dominating Wrn states EWD to the Ern Great Lakes and Wrn Gulf region. EWD, shortwaves will continue to dig SEWD into Ern longwave trough. Looking S, ridge over Cntrl Gulf and TUTT low over SE Gulf of Mex. At surface, front and trough will slowly weaken and then dissipate thru the period. As a result, ridge inches nwd across S FL. Our rain chances will modestly decrease each day to climo values as a mean 500 mb trough over the ERN CONUS continues inching EWD thru Tuesday night before shifting into Atlc on Wednesday. For Monday, models depict additional shortwave energy dropping SEWD from Cntrl Appalachians into base of trough. Another is depicted to move around subtropical ridge and into SE region. This will serve to further ignite convection. Expect convection to begin along gulf coast in the mornnig and spreading newd and filling in by late morning and afternoon. Models depict slight cooling aloft (-8C) with WLY steering flow so chances of strong to severe storms may be higher on Monday than today. Scattered storms will persist past sunset. The mid/upper pattern will continue with a light deep layer NW flow allowing Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) and/or subtle upper level short waves, to ride down ridge from plains into se region thru the period bringing distant storms to our area (even during the overnight areas). The timing, strength, and eventual track of such systems is always problematic, so we will have to evaluate this on a day-by-day basis. It`s possible that a more organized severe storm threat could emerge with one (or more) of these systems. Locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning also remain a good bet. Type 4 light WLY seabreeze will favor Gulf Coast sea breeze pushing activity towards Ern counties and keeping E coast seabreeze well east of I-75 thru Tuesday switching to type 1 moderate SW flow on Wednesday. Max temperature will rise to mid 90s Monday and Tues dropping to low 90s on Wednesday. Apparent temps should remain below 105 degrees. && .LONG TERM [Thursday through Sunday]... Mean position of an upper level anticyclone in the first half of the extended will be over the southern Plains, which would put the Southeast US in a deep N-NW flow aloft. The concerns that have been advertised the last few nights about MCS activity propagating into the area from the northwest during the Wednesday to Friday timeframe still appear valid. Underneath the core of the hot dome of high pressure in the Southern Plains, low-level flow looks to largely be S-SW. This may intersect a quasi-stationary front draped NW-SE that would roughly follow the northeastern extent of the more prominent EML plume over the Plains. To the northeast of the front, the models project pool of higher low- level (0-2km) thetae extending from roughly the Missouri River Valley, to western Tennessee, and on S-SE into our forecast area. This also coincides with southern periphery of the stronger mid- level NW flow (20-25kt at 500mb). From a pattern recognition standpoint, such a setup is typically favorable for mesoscale convective systems to form near the nose of the LLJ and steeper mid-level lapse rates and then push southeast in the region of greatest potential instability, with an attendant threat of gusty winds. Numerical models, particularly beyond about 36-48 hours, tend to struggle with the timing and location of such MCS. Given the uncertainties outlined above, PoPs were kept more even between all hours of the day than what would be typically expected in the summer months around here. We went with about 30% during the overnight and about 40-50% during the daytime hours. The remainder of the forecast elements closely followed HPC guidance, with temperatures near climatological normals. For next weekend, the ridge appears to expand back to the east, leaving us in lighter flow overall, and sea-breeze activity should begin to dominate the daily fluctuations in convection again. && .AVIATION [Beginning 01Z Monday]... Updated at: 930pm Fog and low clouds are not expected to be widespread tomorrow morning as lingering upper level cloud cover from thunderstorms will keep temperatures up tonight. Expect only some MVFR conditions near KVLD. Otherwise, another round of showers and thunderstorms will be on tap tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... Updated at: 930pm Winds will increase tomorrow into the 10-15 kt range, then weaken to 10 kt or less late tomorrow tonight. expect showers along the coastline in the early morning hours with isolated activity in the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Relative humidity levels are expected to remain above critical thresholds for the next several days, so red flag conditions are unlikely. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Lericos |
| #530242 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:00 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 853 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK AS A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS PERSISTS IN THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... HIPRES CENTERED OVER THE LWR GRTLKS/UPR OHVLY THIS EVNG. IT/LL BE BLDG ATOP CWFA OVNGT. SHRA/TSRA HV BEEN REAL ISOLTD TAFTN. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INCRSD DVM WL SPELL THEIR DEMISE. THEREFORE...WL BE EXPERIENCING A QUIET NGT. DAYTIME CU WL BE DSPTG. SATPIX SUGGEST THERE/S NOT MUCH CLDCVR UPSTREAM EITHER. WNDS SHUD BE MINIMAL...AND DCPLG. MIN-T FCST ON TRACK W/ LTST LAMP...LWR 70S IN TOWN/LWR-MID 60S SRRNDG AREAS. WUD BE A FVRBL SETUP FOR RADL COOLING...XPCT FCST MIN-T ALSO SUPPORTED BY OBSVD DEWPTS. MAY TOUCH UP SKYCVR GRIDS...BUT LKLY WL LEAVE MIN-T AS IS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY...ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CAUSE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. INSTABILITY...FORCING FROM THE UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE...TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY CAUSE SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN LOCATIONS NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. WEAK SHEAR PROFILES AND MOISTENING MID-LEVELS SUGGEST THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SINCE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK AND PWATS WILL BE INCREASING TOWARD 1.75 INCHES...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A VERY SLOW-MOVG H5 TROF WILL PERSIST IN THE ERN CONUS THRU MID- WK. SFC LOPRES WILL DPN IN THE GRTLKS RGN TUE NGT-WED...WHICH WILL INDUCE SELY WIND ACRS THE MID-ATLC RGN AND WILL PRESERVE A MOIST AMS IN THE RGN. THE H5 TROF WILL MOVE EWD WED NGT...WHICH WILL ALLOW SFC HIPRES TO NOSE NEWD INTO THE RGN AND AID IN MODEST DRYING OF THE LOW LVLS. MAXIMA WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE MID 80S TUE AND WED... BUT NOT FAR BLW NRML VALS. MINIMA LKLY WILL BE SLGTLY ELEVATED OWING TO BNDRY LYR MSTR AND PSBL CLD CVR. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ALTHOUGH SGFNT UPR TROF WILL BE LACKING...WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INDUCE LEE TROF LATE IN THE WK IN THE MID-ATLC RGN. SLY FLOW WILL DVLP E OF THE TROF...WHICH WILL HELP TO REINFORCE A MSTR GRADIENT ACRS THE FCST AREA AND WILL PROVIDE TEMPS AT OR SLGTLY ABV NRML. TSTM CHCS WILL INCR DIURNALLY AND SHOULD BE TIED TO A FEW PASSING SHRTWV TROFS FRI-SUN. A CDFNT MAY IMPINGE UPON THE FCST AREA EARLY NEXT WK. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE HAS GIVEN WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME UNCERTAINITY FOR CHO AS PATCHY BR MAY WARRENT SOME REDUCED VSBYS AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO ADD TO TAFS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE FOR MRB- CHO MONDAY AFTERNOON. DAILY TSTM CHCS WILL CONT MON NGT-WED AS A SLOW-MOVG H5 TROF PERSISTS IN THE MID-ATLC RGN. THIS WAVE SHOULD MOVE E OF THE RGN ON WED NGT. SFC HIPRES WILL BUILD INTO THE RGN ON THU...BUT A LEE TROF IS XPCD LATE IN THE WK. && .MARINE... WINDS XPCD TO BE BLO SCA VALUES THROUGH TONIGHT. A RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. TSTMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS... WHICH COULD REDUCE VSBYS AND CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. TSTM CHCS WILL CONT TUE-WED AS MID-LVL PRES TROF PERSISTS IN THE MID-ATLC RGN. MARINE HAZARDS WILL REVOLVE AROUND ANY TSTMS...WHICH WILL BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE THRU MID-WK. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... |
| #530241 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:32 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 824 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .UPDATE... WHILE A FEW MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD DECREASED COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS CONVECTION HAS BEEN WELL FORECAST BY THE 18Z NAM12...SO FAVORING THAT MODELS DEPICTIONS FOR POPS THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION... ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING. LIGHT FOG COULD LEAD TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT AREA TERMINAL SITES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 92 72 93 / 30 50 20 40 SSI 76 89 75 91 / 30 60 30 40 JAX 74 91 74 93 / 20 60 30 40 SGJ 75 89 74 92 / 20 50 30 30 GNV 72 91 72 92 / 20 50 30 40 OCF 72 91 72 92 / 20 40 30 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530240 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:11 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 810 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .UPDATE...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS HAS MOISTENED UP SOME FROM YESTERDAY...WESTERLY FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED A BIT RESULTING IN A RATHER QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE JULY. THERE WERE A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EARLIER...BUT THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED AND/OR MOVED EAST OF OUR COUNTIES. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS GENERALLY NORTH OF CLEARWATER BEACH AND BEYOND 20 MILES FROM THE COAST. THESE MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AFFECT COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM PINELLAS COUNTY NORTHWARD. FOR THE UPDATE...I HAVE REMOVED THE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LAND AREAS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THEN JUST SHOW ISOLATED STORMS FROM LEVY SOUTHWARD TO PINELLAS. THE POINT AND CLICKS ON THE WEB WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY AND TEXT UPDATES WILL BE OUT BY 830 PM. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 14Z MONDAY...THEN SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 17Z. SOME AREAS OF VFR CEILINGS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MIDDAY INTO MID-AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES THEN SHIFTING INLAND. && .MARINE...JUST A FEW SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE WATERS MAINLY NORTH OF CLEARWATER BEACH THIS EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN LIGHT WITH NO HAZARDS IN PLACE. JUST MINOR TWEAKS PLANNED TO THE EVENING FORECAST. && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #530239 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:59 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 757 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1020MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VLY/UPPER GREAT LAKES. LAST VESTIGES OF RATHER WEAK COLD FRONT, NOW OPEN COASTAL TROUGH, HAVE MEANDERED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH FROM POSITION OF EARLIER TODAY STILL ORIENTED FROM NE NC INTO EASTERN SC...OR ROUGHLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KECG- KRWI-KCLT. PLEASANT AND MUCH DRIER SUMMER AFTN IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA W/DEWPOINT VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 60S. MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS REMAIN ELEVATED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT (SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA) WITH TD LARGELY IN THE L70S OVER E NC. ALOFT...BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GULF COAST AS WEAKENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE CONUS. NUMEROUS SPOKES/WEAK DISTURBANCES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE ROUNDING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MID MS VLY INTO THE MID- SOUTH. THE CLOSEST OF THESE WAVES CURRENTLY DROPPING ACROSS THE OZARKS OF SE MO INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN. GOOD MODEL SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR/RAP IN CONTINUING TO TAKE THIS WAVE ACROSS KY/TN INTO THE S NC AND UPSTATE SC THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GIVEN LACK OF ANY MID/UPR LVL MECHANISM FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION COMING FROM UPSTREAM, EXPECT MAINLY CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY THROUGH 00Z W/LTL IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HV HAD A FEW CELLS POP ALONG SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS, AND RESULTANT OUTFLOWS WL LKLY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ISO/SCT TSRA ACTIVITY. HV THEREFORE HELD ONTO 20-30 POP FOR ISO TO WIDELY SCT TSTM ACROSS EASTERN SHORE AND NE NC, THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLR SKY/LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY EARLY ON. POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING OVER THE EAST AS LLVL FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SE. OTHERWISE, A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COMFORTABLE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN GOING FORECAST RATIONALE WITH THIS ISSUANCE. OVERALL...FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD UPR LVL TROUGH, WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS TRANSLATES TO MAINLY DIURNAL SLIGHT CHC TO LOW END CHC POPS EACH DAY...NOT FAR FROM TYPICAL CLIMO VALUES. MODEL DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE DATA SHOWING A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING NW FLOW ALOFT TO CROSS THE RGN...THE FIRST OF THESE ARRIVE FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTN/EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL/WEAKER S/W`S GLANCING THE REGION TUE/WED. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC, WEAKENING FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE, AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHEST CHC FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE AREA (FVX- AKQ-ONX) AFTER 20Z/4PM ON MONDAY. INCREASING PW VALUES AND RATHER NEBULOUS WIND PATTERN, TYPICAL FOR LT JULY, WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR SOMEWHAT ERRATIC AND SLOW FORWARD MOVEMENT OF STORMS, SO WHILE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY SUB-SEVERE, A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SVR WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS PRIMARY CONCERN. ATTENDANT WEAK COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/UPSTATE NY BY 12Z/WED. WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED MCS ACTIVITY/REMNANT CONVECTION EMANATING FROM THIS FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/MS VLY INTO THE LOCAL AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER PERIOD OF ISO/SCT LT AFTN/EVENING TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG TROUGHS. FOR TEMPERATURES, LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS MAINLY IN THE U60S TO L70S. HIGH TEMPS FM THE 80S TO AROUND 90F. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOCATING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP DEAMPLIFY THE EAST COAST TROUGH THRU THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PROGGED ACROSS DELMARVA THURSDAY MORNING WITH SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHING SW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL VA TO SOUTH CENTRAL VA. SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NE WITH SFC TROUGH SAGGING BACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WITH THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST GFS/EURO SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF MOISTURE FIELDS...LOCATION OF TROUGH AXIS AND TIMING OF VORT MAXIMAS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...FOR THURS AFTERNOON MODELS TEND TO AGREE ON SFC/MID LEVEL TROUGH PLACEMENT...AND THUS SFC BOUNDARY...KEEPING BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING PRECIP EAST OF I-95 WHERE BEST MOISTURE SOURCE WILL ALSO BE. SFC HIGH TO THEN BUILD INTO EASTERN TN/WESTERN NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. DRASTIC DIFFERENCE EXIST BETWEEN MOISTURE FIELDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE EURO BEING CONSIDERABLE MORE MOIST. EURO ALSO MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH 500MB CLOSED LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS OPPOSED TO GFS OPEN WAVE. TEND TO THINK THE ECMWF IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND MOIST SO HAVE TENDED TO TREND THE LONG TERM FORECAST/POPS TO THE GFS. DUE TO THE GFS BEING DRIER...MEX MOS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHT WARMER THAN ECMOS. HAVE OPTED TO TREND MORE TOWARD MEX GUIDANCE WHICH WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW GIVES CONCERN FOR FOG AT THE TAF SITES EARLY MONDAY MORNING PER LOCAL CLIMATE STUDIES. FOG WAS NOT AN ISSUE SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE WINDS WERE NOT EASTERLY EITHER. RAIN FELL AT SBY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AND THEREFORE...THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR EXISTS. THE NEXT TAF SITE WOULD BE ECG WHERE MOS FCSTS ARE FAIRLY BULLISH AND INCLUDED IFR THERE BY 08Z. THERE WILL BE A SLGT CHC TO CHC OF TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHEST CHANCES AT ORF/ECG. OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .MARINE... SFC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NC WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH ACROSS THE WATERS. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...LIGHT LAND WINDS HAVE ALLOWED SEA BREEZES WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. SFC BOUNDARY WILL THEN LIFT NORTH ON MONDAY. NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...KEEPING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. SCA CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. && .EQUIPMENT... UPDATE: KAKQ RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT ON-SITE. RADAR TECHNICIANS HAVE DETERMINED THAT RADAR MOTOR HAS FAILED AND NEEDS TO BE REPLACED. THOSE REPAIRS WILL BE COMPLETED MONDAY MORNING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM |
| #530238 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:53 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 743 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AFTER A BUSY AFTERNOON OF THUNDERSTORMS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN HEAVILY WORKED-OVER. THE SEVERE WX POTENTIAL APPEARS TO HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY SO WE CANCELED THE SEVERE TSTM WATCH. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WITH A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THUS WE MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. THE OVERALL COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE BEST ON MONDAY...BUT STILL AT LEAST SCATTERED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE EACH DAY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS FARTHER WEST CLOSER TO THE INLAND TROUGH. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO INCREASE AS CELL AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A MOIST AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO COMMAND ATTENTION ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL SWING IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH BEGINNING TO WEAKEN A BIT ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD. THIS WILL CREATE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY LIMITING CONVECTION A BIT. STILL...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE PROPAGATES INLAND. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION THAT IMPACTED THE TERMINALS EARLIER HAS MOVED OFF SHORE. HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WELL INLAND OF BOTH TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD THIS EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...BUT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND POSSIBLE IMPACT THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. STILL...WITH SUCH LIMITED COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET...WILL EXCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TS IN EITHER TAFS FOR NOW. OVERNIGHT...LINGERING MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN PERSISTENT HAZY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR. ALSO...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR EXCEPT FOR SHORT-LIVED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS COULD REACH UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT AT TIMES. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #530237 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:50 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 638 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .AVIATION... AN ISOLATED SHOWER HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF LFT THIS EVE. THIS STORM IS TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE... LOOKING AT VFR WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ DISCUSSION... MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS BEEN BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS HELPING TO SO FAR SUPPRESS CONVECTION. MAY BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A STORM BEFORE SUNSET IF SEA BREEZE TRIES TO MOVE INLAND...BUT WILL GO WITH A SILENT 10 IN THE FIRST PERIOD...AS IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP IT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY SUNSET. THE MAIN STORY HAS BEEN THE HEAT TODAY. WITH LACK OF CONVECTION AIR TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S. ALSO...DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS NOT MIXED DOWN. SO WITH RECENT DAMP CONDITIONS KEEPING MOIST LEVEL NEAR THE SURFACE...DEW POINTS ARE STAYING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SO THE HEAT INDEX OR APPARENT TEMPERATURE IS RUNNING AROUND 108F DEGREES...EVEN IF YOU CORRECT THE USUAL HIGHER DEWPOINT READINGS AT SOME OF THE RURAL AWOS SITES. THEREFORE...THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED AGAIN TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND THUS CONVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HOT. BORDERLINE CALL FOR MONDAY ON HEAT ADVISORY. IF MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER FORECAST AREA...MIGHT SEE SOME BETTER SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL HELP MIX DOWN DRIER AIR...AND PRODUCE A LITTLE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY VALUES...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE GRIDS RANGE FROM 103F TO 107F...AND JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...INSTEAD OF 107F TO 110F. SO AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AND LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT RE-ADDRESS THIS. RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST. RUA MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS TO PREVAIL. RUA && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 77 94 77 93 76 / 10 10 10 10 10 KBPT 76 94 77 93 76 / 10 10 10 10 10 KAEX 75 99 75 98 75 / 10 10 10 10 10 KLFT 76 95 76 94 76 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD... CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON... WEST CAMERON. TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530236 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:47 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 736 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS STILL REMAINS FOR MIAMI AND BROWARD COUNTIES THIS EVENING...BUT POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS...FOR THIS REASON KEPT TAFS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...PICKING UP SPEED AGAIN BY 30/15Z. FOR KAPF...WEST COAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 30/03Z. FLOW WILL PICK UP SPEED AND BECOME SW BY 30/15Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 208 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ DISCUSSION...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED BETWEEN CUBA AND ANDROS ISLAND. RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS DRIER AIR JUST NORTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE, OVER THE KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA. OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, BUT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL STILL HELP FOCUS CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT, AROUND THE BASE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. WE HAVE ACCORDINGLY MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY CENTERED NEAR THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTHWEST AND TOWARDS WESTERN CUBA, MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH LESS OF A CAP AS MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY AND SUBSIDENCE DECREASES. IN ADDITION, WITH THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYING WEAK, SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL EASILY DEVELOP AND ADVANCE INLAND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (40 PERCENT) OVER THE INTERIOR, WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED BY CONVERGING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL EXTEND INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER BOTH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE PATTERN MAY CHANGE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY BY THURSDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. REGARDLESS, PRECIPITABLE WATERS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH 40 POPS WARRANTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO START EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ALL TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCSH AT 18Z ALTHOUGH THE MORE INLAND TERMINALS KOPF...KMIA AND KTMB ARE THE MOST LIKELY. OTHERWISE...THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES COULD KEEP THE CONVECTION JUST INLAND OF TERMINALS KPBI...KFXE AND KFLL AND KAPF. BUT ONCE THE CONVECTION STARTS INLAND THERE COULD BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MAY SPAWN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MARINE...RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS GENERALLY 5-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. FIRE WEATHER...NO MAJOR CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 77 90 77 90 / 10 20 20 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 78 90 78 90 / 20 20 10 20 MIAMI 78 91 78 91 / 20 20 10 20 NAPLES 77 91 76 90 / 10 20 20 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530235 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:45 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 736 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS WEEK...ACCOMPANIED BY WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRIER AND WARMER AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A HUMID TROPICAL AIR MASS OVERHEAD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...INITIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COMMENCED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS PAST MID-AFTERNOON. WITH THE AID OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROGRESSING INLAND FROM EACH STORM...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE UP. WITH THE DAYS HEATING DONE- WITH...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG/SEVERE LIKE EARLIER. NEVERTHELESS...WILL HAVE TO CARRY A POP WELL INTO THE NIGHT. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE S/W TROF DIVING SE...WILL ROUND THE LONG WAVE TROF EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHS CWA. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE S/W IMPULSE WILL AFFECT THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF MONDAY. AS A RESULT...POPS WILL BE DROPPED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BREAKOUT OVER THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS PARTICULARLY ALONG THE WEST BANK OF THE GULF STREAM. IN THE END...NATURE WILL SUPPLY HER OWN FIREWORKS FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE INLAND CAROLINAS MONDAY WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT TO THE NORTH TUESDAY...WHILE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DIRECT A TROPICAL AIR MASS INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING RATHER WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED TO AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST OR TWO...THE BIGGER THREAT MAY BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 2.0+ INCHES ALONG THE COAST WITH SLOW (10 MPH) STORM MOTIONS ANTICIPATED. SREF ENSEMBLES SHOW RATHER IMPRESSIVE +RA POTENTIAL WITH 0.25 INCH/6HR POPS AT 70 PERCENT FOR COASTAL SC MONDAY...A VERY HIGH NUMBER FROM THIS MODEL. WEST OF I-95 THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIER AND THE UPPER TROUGH MAY PASS TOO EARLY IN THE DAY RELATIVE TO THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. OUR POPS RANGE FROM 30 PERCENT WEST OF I-95 TO 60 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. MONDAY NIGHT WE`LL BE IN BETWEEN UPPER TROUGHS WITH A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXPECTED. A SECOND RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 12Z MODELS DISPLAY FAIRLY LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE...WITH THE NAM FAVORING A LATER ARRIVAL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WE PREFER THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION WHICH MATCHES THE 00Z ECMWF MUCH BETTER...AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR OUR HIGH POPS INLAND TUESDAY AND ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING. CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL PRECIP WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM THE HOT READINGS WE`VE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED: 85-88 AT THE BEACHES TO LOWER 90S INLAND BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 70-74 RANGE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH RUNNING DOWN THE EAST COAST WEAKENS A BIT AS IT FLATTENS OUT AND SHIFTS EAST BY LATE WED INTO THURS. THEREFORE DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEEPER W-NW DRIER FLOW. PCP WATER VALUES DROP FROM AROUND 2.2 INCHES WED MORNING DOWN TO 1.6 BY WED EVENING AND DOWN LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES BY THURS EVENING. THEREFORE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AND COUNTING ON CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ISOLATED. MODELS CHANGED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH REGARD TO H5 TROUGH WITH THE LATEST RUNS PROVIDING FOR A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING FROM 588 DEM TO 591 DEM. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRIER MID LEVELS. BY LATE SAT INTO SUN MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS MORE UNIFORM RETURN FLOW SETS UP FORM FROM SFC UP THROUGH H7 AND THEN VEERS TOWARD THE W-SW THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOCALIZED CONVECTION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. SUMMER-LIKE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AS GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 90S MOST DAYS AND 70S AT NIGHT. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH VALID PERIOD...WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR/ DUE TO FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA. ANTICIPATE THESE TO CONTINUE ON A DISSIPATING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THOUGH ISOLATED -RA COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT...AND WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LINGERING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS...MVFR/AND POSSIBLY IFR INLAND/ IS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. HOWEVER...FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON OPACITY OF CLOUD DEBRIS OVERNIGHT. ANY RESIDUAL FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH FEW/SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ANTICIPATED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...TROF OF LOW PRESSURE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE INLAND CAROLINAS...AND THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH WILL RIDGE BACK TO THE SE U.S. COAST. THE RIDGING WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS ALL POINTS TO A SW WIND DIRECTION. THE MID-LEVEL S/W TROF TO TRACK ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PINCHED SFC GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT...POSSIBLY RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 KT. SIG SEAS TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT...EXCEPT POSSIBLY UP TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. THE 5-6 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE SIG SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS COMBINED COULD REACH/PAST SCEC THRESHOLDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ILM NC WATERS. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15 KNOTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE AT NIGHT AND NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 3-4 FT...WITH 5-FOOTERS SHOWING UP PERIODICALLY EAST OF CAPE FEAR WHERE THE EFFECTIVE FETCH LENGTH WILL BE LONGEST. INCREASED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE BIG STORY. MODELS SHOW AT LEAST TWO SEMI-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS: ONE MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND TUESDAY EVENING. EVEN OUTSIDE OF THESE "WINDOWS" WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP GIVEN THE WARM... HUMID AND UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER INLAND CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEREFORE EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW A MORE SOLID 15 KTS TO 20 KTS WED. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT TUES WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 5 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BUT MAINTAIN UP TO 15 KTS THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA |
| #530232 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 726 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO NEW ENGLAND. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEK...WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 700 PM UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. SCT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SO DO NOT THINK THE SHOWERS UP IN VT WILL MAKE THERE WAY TO NH/WESTERN MASS. AS COOLING OCCURS BELIEVE THE CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SHOWERS OFF THE SOUTH COAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO UNTIL PUSHING OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK. PREV DISCUSSION... 230 PM UPDATE...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS JUST ABOUT MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR DATA INDICATED THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION WAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NH. ONLY LOOKING AT SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THIS MOMENT...BUT MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AFTER LOOKING UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND NH. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO REFLECT THE OBSERVED TRENDS. AS THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT... EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE ALOFT AND GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY DOWN TO THE GROUND. PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE RESULT OF THIS SCENARIO WITH THE LOWER LEVELS BEING RATHER MOIST FROM RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE VERY DRY MID LEVELS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT THINK IT IS TOO SMALL A CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS RATHER SPLIT...WITH THE MET GUIDANCE HIGHER THAN THE MAV. EXPECTING AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE TUESDAY...SO STAYED CLOSER TO THE MET GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * SCT TO ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY * UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE AREA WELL INTO THE WEEKEND * EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WORK WEEK. DETAILS... MODELS/PATTERN... 12Z MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST EACH OTHER. STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE OF THE PATTERN AS WELL AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS STATIONED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE SYSTEMS WILL CREATE A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LASTING AT LEAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WITH SEVERAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL KEEP THE PATTERN QUITE ACTIVE WITH SOME HOPE FOR DRY WEATHER BY PERHAPS SUNDAY. GFS MODEL IS A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF...BUT OVERALL GENERAL TRENDS ARE THE SAME. TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT OFFSHORE BY THE MORNING HOURS. SHORTWAVE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WITH DRY AIR ALOFT EXPECT IT TO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE DIURNAL SHOWER AS DIURNAL CU WILL BE IN ABUNDANCE. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOW 80S POSSIBLE AS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION...A COASTAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING ON EXACT PLACEMENT BUT HAVE INSERTED IN HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS SAID REGIONS. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...FOG AMY DEVELOP IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ESP ACROSS LOW LYING REGIONS. WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY... SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DUE TO MESOSCALE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...ITS HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE MODEST INSTABILITY AND SOME SHEAR DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO HAVE KEPT THUNDER PROBABILITIES INTO THE GRIDS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST AS OF NOW MINUS THE CAPE DUE TO OCEAN WAVE. BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS THICKNESS LEVEL BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MAINLY LOW 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS WITH MID TO LOW 60S FOR MIN TEMPS FOR THE WEEK. WEEKEND... LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE WEEKEND AS MODELS HAVE DIVERGED AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER KEPT SATURDAY WET WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A POTENT SHORTWAVE MERGING THROUGH. TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST AS MID 80S ARE POSSIBLE EXPECT ALONG THE COOLER COAST. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES WILL AGAIN EXPAND INLAND FROM THE COAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OCCURS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING VFR/MVFR TO OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOW PROB OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR MONDAY. KBDL TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TOMORROW. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW CHANCE FOR SCTD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ESP WEST OF ORH ALLOWING FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY...FOG POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH COAST. WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE WED INTO FRIDAY. WITH ANY WX... TEMPO MVFR-IFR PSBL. SLY FLOW PREVAILING. FOG PSBL ALONG THE SE SHORELINE TERMINALS. && .MARINE... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOIST AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY DUE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S AND SE WATERS ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN |
| #530231 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 628 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAYS 59 AND 281 FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING. AFTERWARD...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES THAT MAY OCCUR GENERALLY EAST OF US281 DRG THE 10-13Z MONDAY PERIOD. LGT SFC SOUTH WIND OVERNIGHT WITH LGT/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY AFTN FOLLOWING THE SEA BREEZE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A WEAK WAVE IS MOVING JUST TO THE SOUTH. BOTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES ARE PRODUCING A LIMITED AMOUNT OF CONVECTION...BUT SO FAR REMAINING LARGELY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...STILL THINK THERE IS THE CHANCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP. LOOKING AT SEVERAL MESO MODELS...THERES NOT A STRONG TENDENCY EITHER WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OR NOT. JUST GOING TO HOLD ON TO THE 10 POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL AREAS...AND INTO THE EVENING OUT WEST WITH AN ISO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. BEYOND THIS EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND SHOULD KEEP THINGS QUIET AND DRY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY. WITH A BIT OF LINGERING MOISTURE OFFSHORE A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THERE...BUT EXPECT EVERYONE ELSE TO REMAIN DRY WITH PWAT VALUES AT OR BELOW 1.5 INCH. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE PRETTY MUCH DOMINATES WEATHER PICTURE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...THEN THERE IS THE QUESTION ON WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW (MORE APPARENT WITH ECMWF THAN GFS) WILL RESULT IN CONVECTION FOR THE WEEKEND. MEAN RH FIELDS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS UPPER LOW/TUTT APPROACHES...AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST LATE SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH GFS HAS SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE AND WEAKER UPPER LOW...IT DOES SHOW SOME QPF AND MEX-MOS SHOWING LOW CHANCE POPS EASTERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. IF ECMWF IS CORRECT...THEN WILL LIKELY SEE THE CHANCE POPS VERIFY GIVEN THE MOISTURE FIELDS. CONSIDERED HOLDING OFF ON MENTIONING RAIN FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO BLEND IN WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY...RELYING MORE ON ECMWF SOLUTION...AND KEEP THINGS DRY ON SATURDAY...ASSUMING AREA WILL BE ON MORE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF UPPER SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST AS UPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND DRY. INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND WILL MAKE FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER MORNING LOWS FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT OBVIOUSLY NO BIG COOL-DOWN (MAYBE TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY). HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT LEAST A DEGREE ABOVE GUIDANCE ALL AREAS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...THEN MORE TOWARD MEX (BUT STILL ABOVE MOST AREAS) BY SUNDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 75 97 76 97 76 / 10 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 74 96 74 96 75 / 10 10 10 10 10 LAREDO 77 104 77 104 79 / 10 10 10 0 0 ALICE 74 100 74 100 75 / 10 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 77 92 78 93 79 / 10 10 10 10 10 COTULLA 74 102 75 102 74 / 10 10 10 0 0 KINGSVILLE 75 98 74 99 76 / 10 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 77 92 77 91 80 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530230 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:32 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 727 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND EAST MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH ON TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DECREASED THIS EVENING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ZONES ALONG DEFORMATION ZONE WILL HANG AROUND FOR A LITTLE LONGER. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. WITH WEAK NE FLOW AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS OVERNIGHT DESPITE THE CLEARING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG LIKELY DUE TO HIGH RH AND LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY WHERE STRATUS DOES NOT DEVELOP. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...MAINLY 60S...EXCEPT UPPER 50S INTERIOR AND AROUND 70 NYC/NJ METRO. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AMPLIFYING OHIO VALLEY TROUGH FOR MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK RIDGING ON MONDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES WITH THE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENING TO THE WEST. MORNING STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT STRATO-CU MAY LINGER ACROSS WESTERN ZONES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE LIKELY MOVING WELL INLAND. IF CLOUD COVER IS LESS THAN EXPECTED...TEMPS ACROSS THE CITY/INTERIOR SHOULD RISE TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS...MID 80S. TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY JUST WEST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THE TROUGH...BUT MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY. WITH CONTINUED LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW...STRATUS LOOKS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS INTERIOR WITH SLIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...MAINLY 60S...EXPECT AROUND 70 NYC/NJ METRO. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS TIME FRAME. MINOR DIFFERENCES ON OVERALL MAIN FEATURES NOTED WITH REGARD TO MEAN ENSEMBLE/GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS TIME FRAME. ON TUESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING TROUGH/LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL STEER THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEAST. AS THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT APPROACHES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...AND ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SCT ACTIVITY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK TROUGH DOES LINGER HOWEVER...AND WOULD EXPECT MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AT THIS TIME. NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...I FEEL THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF TIME TO IRON OUT DETAILS. TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW...AND POSSIBLE BROKEN CLOUD COVER. A MOS BLEND FOLLOWED. THEREAFTER...A SLOW WARM UP IS EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH FLATTENS...AND MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. WILL FOLLOW AN HPC/MEX/MEN BLEND WHICH SHOULD HELP SMOOTH OUT ANY MOS DIFFERENCES. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH PERHAPS CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING/POSITION OF FRONT/TROUGH. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER THE AREA...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 5 KT UNTIL AT LEAST 13Z MONDAY. NEARLY CALM WINDS AND ADEQUATE LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TO FORM BOTH FOG AND MVFR/IFR STRATUS CLOUDS. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR MORE STRATUS FOR THE NYC/NJ METRO AREA MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. MVFR FOG IS MORE LIKELY INLAND AT TERMINALS LIKE KSWF...KHPN AND KTEB AFT 06Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND STRATUS IS MEDIUM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING AT ANY ONE TERMINAL IS LOW. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FCST TO IMPROVE MONDAY. HOWEVER...TIMING ON IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MONDAY MORNING IS UNCERTAIN. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST UNDER 10 KT STARTING ARND 15K AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MONDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING. MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. .TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MARGINAL VFR POSSIBLE MAINLY IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS AND THEN EAST OF THE WATERS. EAST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST MID TO LATE WEEK. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MID WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NV/PW |
| #530229 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:32 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 622 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .AVIATION [00Z TAF ISSUANCE]...DECAYING TSRA NORTH OF THE TERMINALS FORECAST TO BRING A SHIELD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON TSRA MONDAY. /10 / PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /251 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND MONDAY]...A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AND A RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST HAS LEFT THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION IN A VERY DIFFLUENT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW PATTERN. THE PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND RELATIVE HIGH VALUES OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING ORGANIZED LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH IN THE FLOW...EVEN OVERNIGHT. JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT...OBSERVED MLCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO NEARLY 3500 J/KG EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONE SUCH LINE IS PRESENTLY MOVING THROUGH INTERIOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO BEING INITIATED ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THUS...HAVE LEFT RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER ELEVATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT (SEE BELOW). DRIEST AREA ON AVERAGE WILL BE INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI WHOSE LOCATION IS MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE. LOOKING FURTHER UPSTREAM...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO CURRENTLY REGENERATING ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED SURFACE FRONT OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE AND MOVING SOUTH. CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE SOME TYPE OF RESPONSE WHEN THEY MOVE TO THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY (DISCOUNTING ANY NEWER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WHICH MAY FORM LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT). ONE CAN SEE THE MODELS ARE FORMING PERIODIC MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES (MCCS)IN AREAS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO (SEE NEXT SECTION). HOWEVER...PINPOINTING THE EXACT TIME OR LOCATION WHERE ONE OF THESE WILL FORM IS PROBLEMATIC. THE MAINTENANCE OF THE MCC IS ANOTHER ISSUE. ITS MAINTENANCE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS NOT OUTRUNNING NEWLY DEVELOPING UPDRAFTS AS THE COMPLEX PROPAGATES AND ADVECTS SOUTHWARD IN THE FLOW. SO FOR NOW...LET`S JUST SAY THE UPSTREAM AIR (ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY AND IN A REGION OF DIFFLUENT 850-300 HPA THICKNESS) IS CONDUCIVE TO ADDITIONAL MCC FORMATION. CONSTANT MONITORING OF RAW ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS WILL GIVE US THE BEST ADDITIONAL CLUES ON DEVELOPMENT...TIMING AND MAINTENANCE DURING THE NEXT 24 H. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY MUGGY. EXPECT LOW 70S OVER THE INTERIOR RANGING TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. AS FOR TOMORROW AGREE THAT MAV GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO HIGH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROSPECT OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE ELECTED TO SHADE BELOW THE GUIDANCE EVERYWHERE BUT THE FAR WESTERN ZONES WHERE SOME UPPER 90S ARE POSSIBLE [96-98 DEG(F)]. OTHERWISE...MID 90S. /23 JMM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A LONGWAVE TROF POSITIONED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. OF WHICH THE EASTERN NOSE OF THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN ALABAMA. THIS PLACES THE FORECAST AREA IN A FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT WINDOW ALOFT FOR CONVECTIVE SUPPORT. STORMS THAT ORGANIZE IN AREAS OF DEEP MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE NEAR A WEAK SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPED OVER THE MID SOUTH...LOOK TO BE CARRIED BY THE MID/HIGH LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NEARLY UNCHANGED (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 2.1-2.2 INCHES) AND DAILY FORECAST INSTABILITY (MUCAPE 3-4K J/KG)...STORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER FOR LONGER PERIODS OF TIME. THIS ESPECIALLY OF NOCTURNAL STORMS...GIVEN THE CONTRIBUTION FROM UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BY ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD...BETWEEN THE TROF TO THE EAST AND RIDGE TO THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE GULF MAINTAINS A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE WIND. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S NORTH OF THE COAST. JUST SHY OF 80 AT THE BEACHES. BEFORE STORMS INITIATE...HIGHS ON TUESDAY FORECAST IN THE MID 90S WITH NUMBERS CLOSER TO 90 AT THE COAST. HEAT INDEX READINGS 103-107. /10 .LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE LONGWAVE TROF ORIENTED GENERALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND ALLOWS FOR UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MAINTAINS A MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FOCUS FOR INITIATING SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED OVER THE AREA...NEAR 2.2 INCHES OR ABOUT 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 100-106 RANGE EACH DAY. 10/29 && .MARINE...THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO REGION THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK`S END. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE WITH DAILY AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZES. && .FIRE WEATHER...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS A STALLED OUT...WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL BE THE SOURCE REGION FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL THEN PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE AFTERNOON COASTAL SEA BREEZE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS OF VARYING DIRECTION WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS TO FIRE AGENCIES CONDUCTING ANY CONTROL BURN ACTIVITIES. DAILY DISPERSION GENERALLY GOOD THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE A WIDESPREAD CONCERN. /10 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 76 95 75 94 / 30 40 30 40 PENSACOLA 78 93 79 93 / 30 40 30 40 DESTIN 79 91 79 89 / 30 40 30 50 EVERGREEN 73 95 73 95 / 40 50 20 40 WAYNESBORO 73 98 73 96 / 30 40 20 30 CAMDEN 73 95 73 95 / 40 50 20 30 CRESTVIEW 73 95 74 94 / 30 40 30 50 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530228 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:29 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 728 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AFTER A BUSY AFTERNOON OF THUNDERSTORMS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN HEAVILY WORKED-OVER. THE SEVERE WX POTENTIAL APPEARS TO HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY SO WE CANCELED THE SEVERE TSTM WATCH. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WITH A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THUS WE MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. THE OVERALL COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE BEST ON MONDAY...BUT STILL AT LEAST SCATTERED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE EACH DAY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS FARTHER WEST CLOSER TO THE INLAND TROUGH. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO INCREASE AS CELL AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A MOIST AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO COMMAND ATTENTION ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL SWING IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH BEGINNING TO WEAKEN A BIT ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD. THIS WILL CREATE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY LIMITING CONVECTION A BIT. STILL...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE PROPAGATES INLAND. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PRIMARILY VFR AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS DIFFICULT DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY FORMED INLAND AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE AND THE SEABREEZE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INLAND. DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD AN EARLIER SPARK TIME THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER. MODELS ARE HINTING AT LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AFTER SUNSET ALONG THE COAST SO KEPT VCTS IN UNTIL 00Z. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR EXCEPT FOR SHORT-LIVED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS COULD REACH UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT AT TIMES. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #530227 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:26 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 723 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY THEN MOVE EAST TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END OVER DOWNEAST AND COASTAL MAINE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS AS IT DOES SO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TODAY`S RAIN WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP DOWNEAST AND ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. IN THOSE AREAS, LOWS WILL HOLD IN THE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. BUT FURTHER NORTH, THOSE AREAS THAT REMAINED DRY SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE TOMORROW, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING 850MB MOISTURE. THEREFORE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPDATE 1920 EDT: SHOWERS LINGERED ALONG THE COAST AT 7 PM...ESPECIALLY IN ZONE 17. TRIMMED BACK INLAND POPS GIVEN TRENDS FROM VARIOUS OBSERVING SYSTEMS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN DOMINANT FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. HOWEVER AS THIS RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN BY LATE TUESDAY CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHS OF AROUND 80 ELSEHWERE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE AREA LOOKS TO BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND A COASTAL LOW WHICH LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH. DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW THIS LOW WILL EVOLVE. THE 12Z NAM AND GEM GLOBAL BRING IT UP RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHICH WOULD RESULT IN RAIN AND SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND THE 0Z EURO, WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING NOTABLY WELL LATELY, KEEP THE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BROUGHT DOWN POPS A BIT FROM LAST NIGHT`S PACKAGE BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OPTED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY COULD SINK ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS UNCERTAIN. A COLD FRONT COULD THEN APPROACH LATER SUNDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HELP KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COULD THEN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT KBHB AND KBGR THROUGH THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT LATE TONIGHT, BUT VFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AT THE SOUTHERN SITES OWING TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 07Z-12Z. SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY...EXCEPT IN ANY LATE NIGHT FOG OVER KBGR AND KBHB. A SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES. THIS MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME WHICH COULD REDUCE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: RAIN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1NM OR LESS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, KEEPING WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW MOVING UP THE COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS COULD REACH NEAR SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/OKULSKI |
| #530226 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:14 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 705 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 700 PM UPDATE...STRATIFORM SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST ARE GRADUALLY MOVING OUT TO SEA AND THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE INTERIOR ATTM...BUT THERE ARE A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS STILL OCCURRING FROM TIME TO TIME. THESE SHOULD DISSIAPATE BY 9 PM OR SO. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER STILL POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...WE START A GRADUALY CLEARING PROCESS THIS EVENING OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING DIMINISHES. THE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH QUITE A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TOWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... FOG WILL BURN OFF IN MOST AREAS BY 9AM. WEAK HIGH PRESS SHOULD LEAD TO A PARTLY SUNNY DAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY...LEADING TO A RELATIVELY WEAK SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL START MOVING NORTHEAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING FROM NW TO SE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND WEDNESDAY HOWEVER AS THE SYSTEM STALLS...WAITING ON AN UPSTREAM KICKER BEFORE IT FINALLY MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN THE BEST FORCING AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER MESOLOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AS A SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THEREFORE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN FOR THESE PERIODS AS WELL. EVENTUALLY THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND KICKING OFF MORE INTENSE CONVECTION THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S DURING THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST. READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S ARE LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT ARCS INTO THE AREA. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR TO LIFR WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN FOG. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 9 AM MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END LATE THIS EVENING. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... SPECIAL NOTE: COMMUNICATIONS CIRCUIT STILL OUT AT KRKD AND KLEW. TAF FOR KRKD WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE "AMD NOT SKED" UNTIL COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS ARE RESOLVED. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE NO ESTIMATE OF WHEN A RETURN TO SERVICE IS EXPECTED. GRAY MAINE /KGYX/ RADAR DATA WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE DUAL POLARIZATION RADAR INSTALLATION AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SITE IN GRAY MAINE IS IN PROGRESS. DURING THE INSTALLATION AND FOLLOW UP TESTING OF THIS NEW EQUIPMENT... RADAR DATA WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE. THIS COULD TAKE UP TO TEN DAYS TO COMPLETE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #530225 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:12 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 607 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...STABLE AIR FILLING IS IN BEHIND TODAY`S SEABREEZE. CONVECTION HAS ENDED AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING CUMULUS FIELD WANING. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS STEADILY DIMINISHING THROUGH SUNSET. CUMULUS TO REFORM AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AT VFR. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 147 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TODAY TO FIRE OFF A FEW SMALL SHOWERS OVER CAMERON COUNTY WHICH ARE MOVING WEST AT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. EXPECT THESE PATCHY SHOWERS TO CONTINUE PUSHING WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS POSSIBLY MOVING INTO HIDALGO COUNTY. WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING LATER THIS EVENING AND THE COLLAPSE OF THE SEAS BREEZE BOUNDARY EXPECT NO MORE CONV THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND INTO MON MORNING. AT THE HIGHER LEVELS 500 MB RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN STEADILY THROUGHOUT TOMORROW MAINTAIN FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER SEA BREEZE MAY STRUGGLE TO FORM TOMORROW POSSIBLY FIRING SOME BRIEF ISOLD AFTERNOON CONV. HOWEVER WILL HANDLE WITH SILENT 5 TO 10 % POPS MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM WITH THE MET HIGH TEMPS SHOWING THEIR USUAL WARM BIAS OVER THE MAV NUMBERS. WILL GO CLOSE TO THE MAV/MET CONSENSUS FOR MINS AND WILL GO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE MET HIGH TEMPS FOR TOMORROW AS THESE HAVE BEEN VERIFYING BETTER DURING THE SUMMERTIME HEAT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK IN FROM THE CARIBBEAN GIVING OUR AREA A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. EXTENDED GUIDANCE AND MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INCREASE PRECIPITATION AND HAVE ADDED SILENT 10 POPS FOR SAT/SUN. MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...A FAIRLY LIGHT PG WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM AS THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE INLAND SURFACE TROFFING AND THE GULF RIDGING REMAINS FAIRLY BENIGN. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH THE BAY AND GULF CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. THE CONDITIONS OVER THE BAY WATERS WILL LIKELY BE THE CHOPPIEST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON DURING THE USUAL DIURNAL EFFECTS. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT THESE TO REACH SCA LEVELS. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND DECREASE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2-4 FEET RANGE THIS PERIOD. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530223 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:51 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 650 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 645 PM SUNDAY...CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS IN THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ONLY BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL HOLD ON TO LOW POPS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH LATE EVENING THEN CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR THE COAST AS THE 4 KM WRF SHOWS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVING UP THE COAST AS UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS TO THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF DIGS THRU THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STALLED OUT WEAK FRONT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SEABREEZE MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SO WILL FCST AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. PRECIP WATERS HAVE DECREASED SOME BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY IN THE SOUPY AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BY CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH MOST AREAS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 245 PM SUN...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH AN UPPER TROF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...BUT NOT ON THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF EACH WAVE. OVERALL SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE THROUGHOUT WITH SFC TROUGH RE- DEVELOPING INLAND MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CAP POPS NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER PATTERN SLOWLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 645 PM SUNDAY...NOT PLANNING ANY MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE NEXT TAF CYCLE. GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS LATE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. FOG/STRATUS LIFTS QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE BUT REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN SCTD SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 245 PM SUN...UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS WITH LOCALLY LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 645 PM SUNDAY...WEAK BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND WITH E/NE WINDS. WINDS ARE SE/SW ELSEWHERE...BUT SHOULD BECOME SW OVER ALL AREAS BY LATER TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT DISSIPATES. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 4 FEET WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS CONTINUING OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 KT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS MON AFTN. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FOOTERS LIMITED TO OUTER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS THRU MON AFTN. LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 245 PM SUN...OVERALL EXPECT S/SW WINDS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD. SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND SPEEDS OF STRONGEST WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO WED...WILL CONTINUE TO CAP WINDS AT 20KT AND SEAS AT 5FT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF 6FT SEAS AND STRONGER WINDS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WED. THU AND FRI MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH S/SW WINDS AOB 15KT AND SEAS 5FT OR LESS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #530222 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:42 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 634 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WHILE SEVERAL WAVES LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PASS CLOSE TO THE AREA. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY MAY FINALLY MOVE BACK NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST, THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH DONE BY AROUND 8-9PM, AS WE LOSE ANY INFLUENCE FROM SURFACE HEATING. WITH VERY LITTLE SURFACE FLOW AND LIGHT FLOW ALOFT, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO RADIATE FAIRLY WELL TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AS WE START TO LOSE THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 60S WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN POCONOS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES OVERNIGHT BUT ENOUGH WILL LINGER AT THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL TODAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR FOG TO FORM, AS THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY AND WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT IT WILL BECOME DENSE OTHER THAN IN FEW LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, DRIER AIR IS STARTING TO MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WHILE TODAY WAS MORE COMFORTABLE THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, MONDAY SHOULD BE EVEN BETTER. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ON MONDAY AND WE BECOME MORE ZONAL ALOFT. ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION, DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE AGAIN, THERE WILL STILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AROUND SO THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD DROP HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS WE GET A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BUT OUT OF A MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WE COULD SEE ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE OUR INLAND PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES ARE WARMER THAN OUR SOUTHERN AND COASTAL COUNTIES. MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE UP-COMING WEEK AND ITS EFFECTS ON THE WEATHER. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. IT LOOKS NOW LIKE THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING ITS WAY NORTH UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH, SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PASS CLOSE TO THE AREA. MEANWHILE, THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SEND MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES/VORT MAXES ACROSS THE ARE DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PW VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREFORE, WE KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT, SO IT IS HARD TO SAY IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR, BUT ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS. AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND, THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT, BEFORE A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHER TIER OF THE COUNTRY/SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS MAY END UP BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE COOLEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S IN MANY PLACES, BEFORE WARMING UP AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND AROUND 90 IN MANY AREAS. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. MOST SHOWERS ARE LIGHT BUT A FEW MAY CAUSE CEILINGS TO DROP AROUND 3000 FT AND VISIBILITIES TO DROP DOWN TO 3-5SM. TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE THE ACTIVITY DIE DOWN AND CLEAR OUT BY AROUND 1-2Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LARGELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT AND THE LIGHT WINDS, WE COULD START TO SEE FOG FORM, ESPECIALLY AT SITES WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN. HINTED AT THE VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND A FEW LOCATIONS MAY DROP DOWN TO IFR. ONCE THE SITES GO DOWN, THEY WILL LIKELY STAY DOWN UNTIL WE NEAR DAYBREAK AND A LITTLE BIT OF MIXING OCCURS. EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE VFR MONDAY MORNING BETWEEN 13-15Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH LITTLE FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY AND TURN TO THE EAST, BECOMING A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER, THERE IS CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET ON THE OPEN WATER AND AROUND A FOOT OR LESS ON THE BAY THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND PICK UP A BIT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY OUT OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OUTLOOK... WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK PERIOD. A GENERAL EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WHICH MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE WINDS AND WAVES. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... LOOKING AT THE ET-SURGE GUIDANCE, IF TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAINED AT A HALF A FOOT, THE OCEAN FRONT WOULD GET VERY CLOSE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WE APPROACH THE FULL MOON. && .RIP CURRENTS... ALTHOUGH THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE, AN 11 SECOND WAVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN NJ. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON |
| #530210 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:09 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 452 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND EAST MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH ON TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AS WELL...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED. IN ADDITION...WITH WEAK FLOW ANY STRONGER TSTMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS SE CONN WITH DEFORMATION ZONE. ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES EAST. THEREAFTER...WITH WEAK NE FLOW AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS OVERNIGHT DESPITE CLEARING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG LIKELY WHERE STRATUS DOES NOT DEVELOP...BEST CHANCE INTERIOR. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...MAINLY 60S...EXPECT UPPER 50S INTERIOR AND AROUND 70 NYC/NJ METRO. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AMPLIFYING OHIO VALLEY TROUGH FOR MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK RIDGING ON MONDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES WITH THE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENING TO THE WEST. MORNING STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT STRATO-CU MAY LINGER ACROSS WESTERN ZONES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE LIKELY MOVING WELL INLAND. IF CLOUD COVER IS LESS THAN EXPECTED...TEMPS ACROSS THE CITY/INTERIOR SHOULD RISE TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS...MID 80S. TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY JUST WEST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THE TROUGH...BUT MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY. WITH CONTINUED LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW...STRATUS LOOKS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS INTERIOR WITH SLIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...MAINLY 60S...EXPECT AROUND 70 NYC/NJ METRO. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS TIME FRAME. MINOR DIFFERENCES ON OVERALL MAIN FEATURES NOTED WITH REGARD TO MEAN ENSEMBLE/GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS TIME FRAME. ON TUESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING TROUGH/LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL STEER THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEAST. AS THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT APPROACHES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...AND ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SCT ACTIVITY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK TROUGH DOES LINGER HOWEVER...AND WOULD EXPECT MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AT THIS TIME. NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...I FEEL THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF TIME TO IRON OUT DETAILS. TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW...AND POSSIBLE BROKEN CLOUD COVER. A MOS BLEND FOLLOWED. THEREAFTER...A SLOW WARM UP IS EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH FLATTENS...AND MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. WILL FOLLOW AN HPC/MEX/MEN BLEND WHICH SHOULD HELP SMOOTH OUT ANY MOS DIFFERENCES. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH PERHAPS CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING/POSITION OF FRONT/TROUGH. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A LINE OF SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS PRODUCING MVFR CIGS WILL MV S OF THE NYC/METRO NJ TERMINALS BY 22Z. A BRIEF PD OF HVY RAIN ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CELLS. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LESS THAN 5 KT AREA WIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK HIGH PRES SYS WILL MV SE TOWARD THE AREA AND DRYING WILL OCCUR IN THE MID AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE...THE SFC WILL REMAIN MODERATELY MOIST WITH DEW PT TEMPS REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS MIGHT CAUSE MVFR/IFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP AFT 06Z TONIGHT...WITH A MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FCST TO IMPROVE MONDAY. HOWEVER...TIMING ON IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR MONDAY MORNING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...POSSIBLE THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY MONDAY AND BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH UNDER 10 KT LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MONDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING. MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. .TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MARGINAL VFR POSSIBLE MAINLY IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS AND THEN EAST OF THE WATERS. EAST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST MID TO LATE WEEK. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE THE OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 1/4 INCH...IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO PRODUCE 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES IN AN HOUR. THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND IN URBAN AREAS...WITH A LOW END FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MID WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NV/PW |
| #530207 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 345 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SHORT TERM... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DID NOT REALLY OCCUR TODAY WHICH WAS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO WORK IN ALOFT THAT ALONG WITH NO REAL TRIGGER TO GET CONVECTION GOING REALLY WORKED AGAINST CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BIG ISSUE FOR THE IMMEDIATE TIME FRAME WILL BE THE HEAT EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL IN THE THE 90S OVER THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. HIGH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE AREAS NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN EXCLUDING THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST FOR MONDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY REALLY HIGHLIGHTS THE AREAS THAT THE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD CLIMB TO 108 AND GREATER FOR MORE THAN 3 TO 4 HOURS. RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW ARE PRETTY LOW AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON. 13/MH .LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. OUR AREA IS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE HIGH AND THE ONLY REAL CHANCE OF PRECIP WOULD BE FROM LITTLE IMPULSES THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH. FOR RIGHT NOW IT SEEMS THAT MOST OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THIS COULD DEFINITELY CHANGE AS THESE FEATURES ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WELL IN ADVANCE. OVERALL POPS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK RANGE FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OCCURRING FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 90S EACH DAY. 13/MH && .AVIATION... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...KMCB AND KHUM MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG SHORTLY BEFORE AND AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. 11 && .MARINE... TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. AWAY FROM ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT MAY OCCUR...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS DURING THE PERIOD. 11 .DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF AREA ON MONDAY. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 75 98 73 96 / 10 20 20 20 BTR 76 97 75 96 / 10 10 20 10 ASD 77 95 77 95 / 10 20 20 20 MSY 78 93 78 93 / 0 20 20 20 GPT 78 93 78 92 / 10 20 20 30 PQL 77 94 78 92 / 10 30 20 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ASCENSION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST. HELENA...ST. TAMMANY...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST FELICIANA. GM...NONE. MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AMITE...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530202 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 338 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A WEAK WAVE IS MOVING JUST TO THE SOUTH. BOTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES ARE PRODUCING A LIMITED AMOUNT OF CONVECTION...BUT SO FAR REMAINING LARGELY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...STILL THINK THERE IS THE CHANCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP. LOOKING AT SEVERAL MESO MODELS...THERES NOT A STRONG TENDENCY EITHER WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OR NOT. JUST GOING TO HOLD ON TO THE 10 POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL AREAS...AND INTO THE EVENING OUT WEST WITH AN ISO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. BEYOND THIS EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND SHOULD KEEP THINGS QUIET AND DRY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY. WITH A BIT OF LINGERING MOISTURE OFFSHORE A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THERE...BUT EXPECT EVERYONE ELSE TO REMAIN DRY WITH PWAT VALUES AT OR BELOW 1.5 INCH. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE PRETTY MUCH DOMINATES WEATHER PICTURE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...THEN THERE IS THE QUESTION ON WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW (MORE APPARENT WITH ECMWF THAN GFS) WILL RESULT IN CONVECTION FOR THE WEEKEND. MEAN RH FIELDS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS UPPER LOW/TUTT APPROACHES...AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST LATE SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH GFS HAS SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE AND WEAKER UPPER LOW...IT DOES SHOW SOME QPF AND MEX-MOS SHOWING LOW CHANCE POPS EASTERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. IF ECMWF IS CORRECT...THEN WILL LIKELY SEE THE CHANCE POPS VERIFY GIVEN THE MOISTURE FIELDS. CONSIDERED HOLDING OFF ON MENTIONING RAIN FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO BLEND IN WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY...RELYING MORE ON ECMWF SOLUTION...AND KEEP THINGS DRY ON SATURDAY...ASSUMING AREA WILL BE ON MORE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF UPPER SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST AS UPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND DRY. INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND WILL MAKE FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER MORNING LOWS FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT OBVIOUSLY NO BIG COOL-DOWN (MAYBE TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY). HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT LEAST A DEGREE ABOVE GUIDANCE ALL AREAS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...THEN MORE TOWARD MEX (BUT STILL ABOVE MOST AREAS) BY SUNDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 75 97 76 97 76 / 10 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 74 96 74 96 75 / 10 10 10 10 10 LAREDO 77 104 77 104 79 / 10 10 10 0 0 ALICE 74 100 74 100 75 / 10 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 77 92 78 93 79 / 10 10 10 10 10 COTULLA 74 102 75 102 74 / 10 10 10 0 0 KINGSVILLE 75 98 74 99 76 / 10 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 77 92 77 91 80 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530199 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 1000 AM HST SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE WEEK...AND PROBABLY LONGER. A SHOWER BAND OVER THE ISLANDS WILL BREAK UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING DRIER AND SUNNIER WEATHER TO RETURN. A TROUGH PASSING SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL BOOST SHOWERS AND WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY...AND TRADE WINDS WILL TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY. MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND TYPICALLY DRY WEATHER ARE LIKELY FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... A COMMA-SHAPED AREA OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS THAT HIT THE ISLANDS YESTERDAY EVENING HAS PARTLY BROKEN UP AND IS NOW STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE WEST. THE SHOWER BAND WILL CLEAR MOST AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWER AREA PASSING OVER THE ISLANDS IS PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ABOUT 1200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI AND ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE TROUGHS ARE MOVING WEST AROUND 20 MPH...SO THE TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TROUGHS LIKE THESE CAN CARRY QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE...AND UNDER THE RIGHT CONDITIONS CAN PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF RAIN OVER THE ISLANDS. WHAT USUALLY PRODUCES LOTS OF RAIN IS ONE OF THESE TROUGHS MOVING UNDER A LOW ALOFT DIGGING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LOW ALOFT NORTHWEST OF KAUAI BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW IT DIGGING TOWARD THE ISLANDS...THE LOW MAY ACTUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH NO GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SINCE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN EASTERLY..THE SHOWERS WILL FALL OVER MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS... AND WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY RELIEF FOR THE DROUGHT-RIDDEN AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. THE TROUGH PASSING SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS COMBINED WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL BOOST TRADE WINDS A BIT...AND LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE SURFACE WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON THURSDAY WITH MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TODAY...THE AIRMET FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL LIKELY END THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AS MOISTURE FROM THE TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND REACHES THE AREA...MORE MT OBSC IS POSSIBLE STARTING MONDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH MAY ALSO BOOST THE WINDS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE TO REQUIRE AN AIRMET. && .MARINE... WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS TONIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WINDIER AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THIS ADVISORY WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A MODERATE SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY...PEAK ON TUESDAY...THEN LOWER SLOWLY ON WEDNESDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE ALENUIHAHA AND PAILOLO CHANNELS...MAALAEA BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. && $$ DONALDSON |
| #530192 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:30 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 322 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS BEEN BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS HELPING TO SO FAR SUPPRESS CONVECTION. MAY BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A STORM BEFORE SUNSET IF SEA BREEZE TRIES TO MOVE INLAND...BUT WILL GO WITH A SILENT 10 IN THE FIRST PERIOD...AS IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP IT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY SUNSET. THE MAIN STORY HAS BEEN THE HEAT TODAY. WITH LACK OF CONVECTION AIR TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S. ALSO...DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS NOT MIXED DOWN. SO WITH RECENT DAMP CONDITIONS KEEPING MOIST LEVEL NEAR THE SURFACE...DEW POINTS ARE STAYING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SO THE HEAT INDEX OR APPARENT TEMPERATURE IS RUNNING AROUND 108F DEGREES...EVEN IF YOU CORRECT THE USUAL HIGHER DEWPOINT READINGS AT SOME OF THE RURAL AWOS SITES. THEREFORE...THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED AGAIN TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND THUS CONVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HOT. BORDERLINE CALL FOR MONDAY ON HEAT ADVISORY. IF MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER FORECAST AREA...MIGHT SEE SOME BETTER SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL HELP MIX DOWN DRIER AIR...AND PRODUCE A LITTLE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY VALUES...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE GRIDS RANGE FROM 103F TO 107F...AND JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...INSTEAD OF 107F TO 110F. SO AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AND LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT RE-ADDRESS THIS. RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST. RUA && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS TO PREVAIL. RUA && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 77 94 77 93 76 / 10 10 10 10 10 KBPT 76 94 77 93 76 / 10 10 10 10 10 KAEX 75 99 75 98 75 / 10 10 10 10 10 KLFT 76 95 76 94 76 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD... CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON... WEST CAMERON. TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530186 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:15 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 410 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO NEW ENGLAND. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEK...WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 230 PM UPDATE...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS JUST ABOUT MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR DATA INDICATED THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION WAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NH. ONLY LOOKING AT SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THIS MOMENT...BUT MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AFTER LOOKING UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND NH. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO REFLECT THE OBSERVED TRENDS. AS THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT... EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE ALOFT AND GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY DOWN TO THE GROUND. PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE RESULT OF THIS SCENARIO WITH THE LOWER LEVELS BEING RATHER MOIST FROM RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE VERY DRY MID LEVELS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT THINK IT IS TOO SMALL A CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS RATHER SPLIT...WITH THE MET GUIDANCE HIGHER THAN THE MAV. EXPECTING AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE TUESDAY...SO STAYED CLOSER TO THE MET GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * SCT TO ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY * UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE AREA WELL INTO THE WEEKEND * EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WORK WEEK. DETAILS... MODELS/PATTERN... 12Z MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST EACH OTHER. STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE OF THE PATTERN AS WELL AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS STATIONED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE SYSTEMS WILL CREATE A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LASTING AT LEAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WITH SEVERAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL KEEP THE PATTERN QUITE ACTIVE WITH SOME HOPE FOR DRY WEATHER BY PERHAPS SUNDAY. GFS MODEL IS A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF...BUT OVERALL GENERAL TRENDS ARE THE SAME. TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT OFFSHORE BY THE MORNING HOURS. SHORTWAVE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WITH DRY AIR ALOFT EXPECT IT TO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE DIURNAL SHOWER AS DIURNAL CU WILL BE IN ABUNDANCE. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOW 80S POSSIBLE AS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION...A COASTAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING ON EXACT PLACEMENT BUT HAVE INSERTED IN HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS SAID REGIONS. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...FOG AMY DEVELOP IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ESP ACROSS LOW LYING REGIONS. WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY... SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DUE TO MESOSCALE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...ITS HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE MODEST INSTABILITY AND SOME SHEAR DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO HAVE KEPT THUNDER PROBABILITIES INTO THE GRIDS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST AS OF NOW MINUS THE CAPE DUE TO OCEAN WAVE. BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS THICKNESS LEVEL BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MAINLY LOW 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS WITH MID TO LOW 60S FOR MIN TEMPS FOR THE WEEK. WEEKEND... LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE WEEKEND AS MODELS HAVE DIVERGED AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER KEPT SATURDAY WET WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A POTENT SHORTWAVE MERGING THROUGH. TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST AS MID 80S ARE POSSIBLE EXPECT ALONG THE COOLER COAST. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES WILL AGAIN EXPAND INLAND FROM THE COAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OCCURS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTING MVFR TO RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SMALL CHANCE FOR SHRA THIS EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR MONDAY. KBDL TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHRA POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW CHANCE FOR SCTD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ESP WEST OF ORH ALLOWING FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY...FOG POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH COAST. WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE WED INTO FRIDAY. WITH ANY WX... TEMPO MVFR-IFR PSBL. SLY FLOW PREVAILING. FOG PSBL ALONG THE SE SHORELINE TERMINALS. && .MARINE... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOIST AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY DUE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S AND SE WATERS ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN |
| #530185 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:12 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... OUTFLOWS FROM OVERNIGHT NEARSHORE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL ZONES THIS AFTN AS SEABREEZE LINGERS CLOSER ALONG THE COAST. ISO PCPN NOTED WITH THESE BOUNDARIES THUS FAR. NOT EXPECT- ING INCREASED COVERAGE ESPECIALLY AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES NORTH TO- WARD THE HIGH. WX PATTERN FOR SE TX THIS WEEK TO BE DOMINATED BY THE UPPER RIDGE PERSISTING JUST EAST OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER (MORE OR LESS) OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. DESPITE MOS TRENDS OF LOWER(ING) POPS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK MODEL TRENDS STILL HINTING AT PCPN GIVEN THE PROGS OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RE-INTRODUCE LOW POPS BACK INTO THE GRIDS ATTM. SO WILL KEEP WITH THE CURRENT FCST OF NO SIGNIFICANT POPS UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND FOR NOW. OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE. 41 && .MARINE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RESULT IS GENERALLY ONSHORE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND FAIRLY LIGHT. TURN SLIGHTLY MORE OFFSHORE WITH SOUTHWEST OCCURRING MAINLY AT NIGHT AS A WEAK LAND BREEZE. SIG WAVE HEIGHTS MOSTLY 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A SMALL AREA OF NEAR 3 FOOT WAVES EXPECTED OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS WINDS FRESHEN SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO A BIT TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. 04 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 78 100 77 99 77 / 10 10 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 78 97 77 96 77 / 10 10 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 83 92 82 92 82 / 20 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530178 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:06 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 357 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1020MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VLY/UPPER GREAT LAKES. LAST VESTIGES OF RATHER WEAK COLD FRONT, NOW OPEN COASTAL TROUGH, HAVE MEANDERED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH FROM POSITION OF EARLIER TODAY STILL ORIENTED FROM NE NC INTO EASTERN SC...OR ROUGHLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KECG- KRWI-KCLT. PLEASANT AND MUCH DRIER SUMMER AFTN IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA W/DEWPOINT VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 60S. MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS REMAIN ELEVATED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT (SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA) WITH TD LARGELY IN THE L70S OVER E NC. ALOFT...BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GULF COAST AS WEAKENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE CONUS. NUMEROUS SPOKES/WEAK DISTURBANCES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE ROUNDING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MID MS VLY INTO THE MID- SOUTH. THE CLOSEST OF THESE WAVES CURRENTLY DROPPING ACROSS THE OZARKS OF SE MO INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN. GOOD MODEL SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR/RAP IN CONTINUING TO TAKE THIS WAVE ACROSS KY/TN INTO THE S NC AND UPSTATE SC THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GIVEN LACK OF ANY MID/UPR LVL MECHANISM FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION COMING FROM UPSTREAM, EXPECT MAINLY CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY THROUGH 00Z W/LTL IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HV HAD A FEW CELLS POP ALONG SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS, AND RESULTANT OUTFLOWS WL LKLY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ISO/SCT TSRA ACTIVITY. HV THEREFORE HELD ONTO 20-30 POP FOR ISO TO WIDELY SCT TSTM ACROSS EASTERN SHORE AND NE NC, THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLR SKY/LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY EARLY ON. POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING OVER THE EAST AS LLVL FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SE. OTHERWISE, A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COMFORTABLE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN GOING FORECAST RATIONALE WITH THIS ISSUANCE. OVERALL...FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD UPR LVL TROUGH, WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS TRANSLATES TO MAINLY DIURNAL SLIGHT CHC TO LOW END CHC POPS EACH DAY...NOT FAR FROM TYPICAL CLIMO VALUES. MODEL DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE DATA SHOWING A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING NW FLOW ALOFT TO CROSS THE RGN...THE FIRST OF THESE ARRIVE FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTN/EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL/WEAKER S/W`S GLANCING THE REGION TUE/WED. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC, WEAKENING FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE, AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHEST CHC FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE AREA (FVX- AKQ-ONX) AFTER 20Z/4PM ON MONDAY. INCREASING PW VALUES AND RATHER NEBULOUS WIND PATTERN, TYPICAL FOR LT JULY, WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR SOMEWHAT ERRATIC AND SLOW FORWARD MOVEMENT OF STORMS, SO WHILE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY SUB-SEVERE, A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SVR WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS PRIMARY CONCERN. ATTENDANT WEAK COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/UPSTATE NY BY 12Z/WED. WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED MCS ACTIVITY/REMNANT CONVECTION EMANATING FROM THIS FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/MS VLY INTO THE LOCAL AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER PERIOD OF ISO/SCT LT AFTN/EVENING TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG TROUGHS. FOR TEMPERATURES, LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS MAINLY IN THE U60S TO L70S. HIGH TEMPS FM THE 80S TO AROUND 90F. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOCATING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP DEAMPLIFY THE EAST COAST TROUGH THRU THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PROGGED ACROSS DELMARVA THURSDAY MORNING WITH SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHING SW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL VA TO SOUTH CENTRAL VA. SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NE WITH SFC TROUGH SAGGING BACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WITH THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST GFS/EURO SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF MOISTURE FIELDS...LOCATION OF TROUGH AXIS AND TIMING OF VORT MAXIMAS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...FOR THURS AFTERNOON MODELS TEND TO AGREE ON SFC/MID LEVEL TROUGH PLACEMENT...AND THUS SFC BOUNDARY...KEEPING BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING PRECIP EAST OF I-95 WHERE BEST MOISTURE SOURCE WILL ALSO BE. SFC HIGH TO THEN BUILD INTO EASTERN TN/WESTERN NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. DRASTIC DIFFERENCE EXIST BETWEEN MOISTURE FIELDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE EURO BEING CONSIDERABLE MORE MOIST. EURO ALSO MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH 500MB CLOSED LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS OPPOSED TO GFS OPEN WAVE. TEND TO THINK THE ECMWF IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND MOIST SO HAVE TENDED TO TREND THE LONG TERM FORECAST/POPS TO THE GFS. DUE TO THE GFS BEING DRIER...MEX MOS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHT WARMER THAN ECMOS. HAVE OPTED TO TREND MORE TOWARD MEX GUIDANCE WHICH WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AT 19Z...MOSTLY VFR CONDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH LOTS OF CU DEVELOPMENT. SATELLITE SHOWING LOTS OF DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO GET GOING AND GENERALLY LATE IN THE DAY. THE BEST CHC FOR ANY SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF MD/VA/NC. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT LESS THAN 10 KT AND FROM THE NE-E. SOME PTCHY FOG AGAIN PSBL FOR THE OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT CONDS TO BE MOSTLY VFR. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... SFC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NC WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH ACROSS THE WATERS. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...LIGHT LAND WINDS HAVE ALLOWED SEA BREEZES WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. SFC BOUNDARY WILL THEN LIFT NORTH ON MONDAY. NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...KEEPING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. SCA CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. && .EQUIPMENT... UPDATE: KAKQ RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT ON-SITE. RADAR TECHNICIANS HAVE DETERMINED THAT RADAR MOTOR HAS FAILED AND NEEDS TO BE REPLACED. THOSE REPAIRS WILL BE COMPLETED MONDAY MORNING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM |
| #530177 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:05 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 356 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY THEN MOVE EAST TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END OVER DOWNEAST AND COASTAL MAINE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS AS IT DOES SO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TODAY`S RAIN WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP DOWNEAST AND ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. IN THOSE AREAS, LOWS WILL HOLD IN THE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. BUT FURTHER NORTH, THOSE AREAS THAT REMAINED DRY SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE TOMORROW, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING 850MB MOISTURE. THEREFORE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN DOMINANT FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. HOWEVER AS THIS RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN BY LATE TUESDAY CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHS OF AROUND 80 ELSEHWERE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE AREA LOOKS TO BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND A COASTAL LOW WHICH LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH. DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW THIS LOW WILL EVOLVE. THE 12Z NAM AND GEM GLOBAL BRING IT UP RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHICH WOULD RESULT IN RAIN AND SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND THE 0Z EURO, WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING NOTABLY WELL LATELY, KEEP THE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BROUGHT DOWN POPS A BIT FROM LAST NIGHT`S PACKAGE BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OPTED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY COULD SINK ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS UNCERTAIN. A COLD FRONT COULD THEN APPROACH LATER SUNDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HELP KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COULD THEN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT KBHB AND KBGR THROUGH THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT LATE TONIGHT, BUT VFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AT THE SOUTHERN SITES OWING TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 07Z-12Z. SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY...EXCEPT IN ANY LATE NIGHT FOG OVER KBGR AND KBHB. A SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES. THIS MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME WHICH COULD REDUCE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: RAIN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1NM OR LESS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, KEEPING WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW MOVING UP THE COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS COULD REACH NEAR SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS |
| #530176 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:03 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 348 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WHILE SEVERAL WAVES LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PASS CLOSE TO THE AREA. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY MAY FINALLY MOVE BACK NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST, THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH DONE BY AROUND 8-9PM, AS WE LOSE ANY INFLUENCE FROM SURFACE HEATING. WITH VERY LITTLE SURFACE FLOW AND LIGHT FLOW ALOFT, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO RADIATE FAIRLY WELL TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AS WE START TO LOSE THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 60S WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN POCONOS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES OVERNIGHT BUT ENOUGH WILL LINGER AT THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL TODAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR FOG TO FORM, AS THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY AND WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT IT WILL BECOME DENSE OTHER THAN IN FEW LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, DRIER AIR IS STARTING TO MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WHILE TODAY WAS MORE COMFORTABLE THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, MONDAY SHOULD BE EVEN BETTER. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ON MONDAY AND WE BECOME MORE ZONAL ALOFT. ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION, DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE AGAIN, THERE WILL STILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AROUND SO THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD DROP HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS WE GET A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BUT OUT OF A MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WE COULD SEE ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE OUR INLAND PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES ARE WARMER THAN OUR SOUTHERN AND COASTAL COUNTIES. MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE UP-COMING WEEK AND ITS EFFECTS ON THE WEATHER. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. IT LOOKS NOW LIKE THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING ITS WAY NORTH UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH, SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PASS CLOSE TO THE AREA. MEANWHILE, THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SEND MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES/VORT MAXES ACROSS THE ARE DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PW VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREFORE, WE KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT, SO IT IS HARD TO SAY IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR, BUT ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS. AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND, THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT, BEFORE A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHER TIER OF THE COUNTRY/SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS MAY END UP BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE COOLEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S IN MANY PLACES, BEFORE WARMING UP AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND AROUND 90 IN MANY AREAS. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MOST SHOWERS ARE LIGHT BUT A FEW MAY CAUSE CEILINGS TO DROP AROUND 2500 FT AND VISIBILITIES TO DROP DOWN TO 3-5SM. HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE THE ACTIVITY DIE DOWN AND CLEAR OUT BY AROUND 1-2Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AND WILL BECOME LARGELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT AND THE LIGHT WINDS, WE COULD START TO SEE FOG FORM, ESPECIALLY AT SITES WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN. HINTED AT THE VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND A FEW LOCATIONS MAY DROP DOWN TO IFR. ONCE THE SITES GO DOWN, THEY WILL LIKELY STAY DOWN UNTIL WE NEAR DAYBREAK AND A LITTLE BIT OF MIXING OCCURS. EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE VFR MONDAY MORNING BETWEEN 13-15Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH LITTLE FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY AND TURN TO THE EAST, BECOMING A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER, THERE IS CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET ON THE OPEN WATER AND AROUND A FOOT OR LESS ON THE BAY THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND PICK UP A BIT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY OUT OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OUTLOOK... WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK PERIOD. A GENERAL EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WHICH MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE WINDS AND WAVES. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... LOOKING AT THE ET-SURGE GUIDANCE, IF TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAINED AT A HALF A FOOT, THE OCEAN FRONT WOULD GET VERY CLOSE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WE APPROACH THE FULL MOON. && .RIP CURRENTS... ALTHOUGH THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE, AN 11 SECOND WAVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN NJ. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON |
| #530170 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:56 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 350 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... BUSY CONVECTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-EVENING AS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH THE SEABREEZE AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPS IN THIS EVENING. SEVERE TSTM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 9 PM FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE BY MID TO LATE EVENING BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE STALLS OUT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. THE OVERALL COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE BEST ON MONDAY...BUT STILL AT LEAST SCATTERED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE EACH DAY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS FARTHER WEST CLOSER TO THE INLAND TROUGH. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO INCREASE AS CELL AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A MOIST AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO COMMAND ATTENTION ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL SWING IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH BEGINNING TO WEAKEN A BIT ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD. THIS WILL CREATE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY LIMITING CONVECTION A BIT. STILL...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE PROPAGATES INLAND. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PRIMARILY VFR AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS DIFFICULT DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY FORMED INLAND AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE AND THE SEABREEZE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INLAND. DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD AN EARLIER SPARK TIME THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER. MODELS ARE HINTING AT LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AFTER SUNSET ALONG THE COAST SO KEPT VCTS IN UNTIL 00Z. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR EXCEPT FOR SHORT-LIVED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS COULD REACH UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT AT TIMES. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #530169 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:54 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 251 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND MONDAY]...A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AND A RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST HAS LEFT THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION IN A VERY DIFFLUENT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW PATTERN. THE PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND RELATIVE HIGH VALUES OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING ORGANIZED LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH IN THE FLOW...EVEN OVERNIGHT. JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT...OBSERVED MLCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO NEARLY 3500 J/KG EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONE SUCH LINE IS PRESENTLY MOVING THROUGH INTERIOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO BEING INITIATED ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THUS...HAVE LEFT RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER ELEVATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT (SEE BELOW). DRIEST AREA ON AVERAGE WILL BE INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI WHOSE LOCATION IS MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE. LOOKING FURTHER UPSTREAM...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO CURRENTLY REGENERATING ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED SURFACE FRONT OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE AND MOVING SOUTH. CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE SOME TYPE OF RESPONSE WHEN THEY MOVE TO THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY (DISCOUNTING ANY NEWER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WHICH MAY FORM LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT). ONE CAN SEE THE MODELS ARE FORMING PERIODIC MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES (MCCS)IN AREAS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO (SEE NEXT SECTION). HOWEVER...PINPOINTING THE EXACT TIME OR LOCATION WHERE ONE OF THESE WILL FORM IS PROBLEMATIC. THE MAINTENANCE OF THE MCC IS ANOTHER ISSUE. ITS MAINTENANCE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS NOT OUTRUNNING NEWLY DEVELOPING UPDRAFTS AS THE COMPLEX PROPAGATES AND ADVECTS SOUTHWARD IN THE FLOW. SO FOR NOW...LET`S JUST SAY THE UPSTREAM AIR (ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY AND IN A REGION OF DIFFLUENT 850-300 HPA THICKNESS) IS CONDUCIVE TO ADDITIONAL MCC FORMATION. CONSTANT MONITORING OF RAW ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS WILL GIVE US THE BEST ADDITIONAL CLUES ON DEVELOPMENT...TIMING AND MAINTENANCE DURING THE NEXT 24 H. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY MUGGY. EXPECT LOW 70S OVER THE INTERIOR RANGING TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. AS FOR TOMORROW AGREE THAT MAV GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO HIGH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROSPECT OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE ELECTED TO SHADE BELOW THE GUIDANCE EVERYWHERE BUT THE FAR WESTERN ZONES WHERE SOME UPPER 90S ARE POSSIBLE [96-98 DEG(F)]. OTHERWISE...MID 90S. /23 JMM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A LONGWAVE TROF POSITIONED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. OF WHICH THE EASTERN NOSE OF THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN ALABAMA. THIS PLACES THE FORECAST AREA IN A FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT WINDOW ALOFT FOR CONVECTIVE SUPPORT. STORMS THAT ORGANIZE IN AREAS OF DEEP MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE NEAR A WEAK SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPED OVER THE MID SOUTH...LOOK TO BE CARRIED BY THE MID/HIGH LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NEARLY UNCHANGED (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 2.1-2.2 INCHES) AND DAILY FORECAST INSTABILITY (MUCAPE 3-4K J/KG)...STORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER FOR LONGER PERIODS OF TIME. THIS ESPECIALLY OF NOCTURNAL STORMS...GIVEN THE CONTRIBUTION FROM UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BY ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD...BETWEEN THE TROF TO THE EAST AND RIDGE TO THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE GULF MAINTAINS A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE WIND. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S NORTH OF THE COAST. JUST SHY OF 80 AT THE BEACHES. BEFORE STORMS INITIATE...HIGHS ON TUESDAY FORECAST IN THE MID 90S WITH NUMBERS CLOSER TO 90 AT THE COAST. HEAT INDEX READINGS 103-107. /10 .LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE LONGWAVE TROF ORIENTED GENERALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND ALLOWS FOR UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MAINTAINS A MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FOCUS FOR INITIATING SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED OVER THE AREA...NEAR 2.2 INCHES OR ABOUT 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 100-106 RANGE EACH DAY. 10/29 && .AVIATION [18 UTC CYCLE]...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z MON. LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOSTLY A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. MONITORING POSSIBILITY FOR AN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD PASS MOSTLY EAST OF THE THREE TAF SITES IF IT INITIATES AND MAINTAINS ITSELF. 32/EE AND /23 JMM && .MARINE...THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO REGION THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK`S END. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE WITH DAILY AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZES. && .FIRE WEATHER...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS A STALLED OUT...WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL BE THE SOURCE REGION FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL THEN PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE AFTERNOON COASTAL SEA BREEZE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS OF VARYING DIRECTION WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS TO FIRE AGENCIES CONDUCTING ANY CONTROL BURN ACTIVITIES. DAILY DISPERSION GENERALLY GOOD THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE A WIDESPREAD CONCERN. /10 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 76 95 75 94 / 30 40 30 40 PENSACOLA 78 93 79 93 / 30 40 30 40 DESTIN 79 91 79 89 / 30 40 30 50 EVERGREEN 73 95 73 95 / 40 50 20 40 WAYNESBORO 73 98 73 96 / 30 40 20 30 CAMDEN 73 95 73 95 / 40 50 20 30 CRESTVIEW 73 95 74 94 / 30 40 30 50 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530165 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:45 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 340 PM AST SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS...TUTT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS SLIGHTLY WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...WITH AXIS NOW NEAR 56 WEST CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL HELP TIGHTEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME DECENT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION FLARING UP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF ITS AXIS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND OF BARBADOS. && .DISCUSSION...A SMALL SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO 1.80 INCHES OR SO ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS QUICK SURGE OF MOIST AIR WAS SUFFICIENT TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND GOOD DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER PUERTO RICO. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WERE VERY EXPLOSIVE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WEST INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO TAPER OFF OVER LAND AFTER SUNSET LEAVING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT LEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... THE APPROACHING ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING INCREASING DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS ITCZ MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BE LIFTED NORTHWARDS ACROSS AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT THE MOISTURE TO PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE ON MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD WITH THE PASSAGE AND TRAILING THE WAVE...AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE AND SQUALLY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED EACH DAY AS DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ WILL CONTINUE TO POOL ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. && .AVIATION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH...INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS WELL AS SHRA/TSRA THROUGH AT LEAST 29/22Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR IN AND AROUND TJMZ...TJPS AND POSSIBLY TJBQ. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10-20 KTS FROM SFC TO 10 KFT. WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME +TSRA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 79 90 78 89 / 50 70 60 60 STT 81 90 80 89 / 60 70 70 70 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #530164 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:41 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 331 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT-TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE...WITH THE ONLY ACTIVITY THUS FAR IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA OCCURRING IN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. EXPECT THIS TO PICK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AS COLLISIONS OCCUR ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...AND INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPE AS STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. DO NOT EXPECT HIGH COVERAGE AS BULK OF MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH...BUT POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ANY STORMS. MON-TUES...AXIS OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA...KEEPING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. DAILY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION WILL BACK WINDS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST NEAR THE COAST AS THE BREEZE MOVES THROUGH. CONCENTRATION OF HIGHEST DEEP MOISTURE VALUES WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AS 500 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -6C TO -8C...OWING TO MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING IN MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR SEEING THE BEST CHANCES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF GREATER MOISTURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 90 AND INTO THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST WITH THE INTERIOR HEATING UP INTO THE LOW-MID 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S. WED-SUN (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...UPPER TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGHING...HIGH PRESSURE CELLS ALOFT WILL HOLD FIRM SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WEST OF THE AREA CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS STATIONED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH OCCASIONAL WAVERING NORTH-SOUTH...BUT NOT TO ANY GREAT DEGREE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEPEST LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION IS FORECAST WITH CHANCES APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED. STILL JUST MINIMAL CHANGES TO HIGHS AND LOWS IN THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE LEFT VCTS FOR DAB AND LEE FROM 20-01Z AND 19-00Z RESPECTIVELY WITH HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES NEARER THESE SITES. && .MARINE... TONIGHT-MON...SOUTH WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL AS ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET MAKING FOR FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS. AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPE WILL SEE A THREAT FOR OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS. TUE-THU...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA DURING THIS TIME. MAINLY SSW/SW WINDS WITH BACKING OF WINDS TO ESE/SE ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS IN THE AFTERNOON SURROUNDING SEA BREEZE FORMATION. SEA BREEZE FORMATION NORTH OF THE CAPE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR SUPPRESSED COMPLETELY DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE WINDS EACH DAY. WIND SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 8-12 KT RANGE. SEAS AOB 3 FT. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS SHORTEN LATE TUE THRU THU. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL COMPONENT WILL BRING A MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK. STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT BUT OFFSHORE. A FEW OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS MAY AFFECT THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE ATLC WATERS EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 92 74 92 / 20 40 30 30 MCO 74 93 74 93 / 10 30 20 20 MLB 75 91 75 91 / 10 20 20 20 VRB 74 91 74 90 / 10 20 20 20 LEE 76 94 76 94 / 20 30 20 30 SFB 76 94 76 94 / 20 30 20 30 ORL 76 94 76 94 / 20 30 20 30 FPR 73 89 73 90 / 10 20 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530163 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:36 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 326 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CONVECTION HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED BY MID LEVEL DRY AIR PUNCHING INTO THE NW FCST AREA THIS AFTN. CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH SOME ENHANCED CU ON THE SEABREEZE SO STILL A CHANCE FOR ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY ON THE SEABREEZE BNDRY THRU THE EVENING. LATER TONIGHT THE UPPER TROF SHARPENS TO THE WEST WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING SE THRU THE OHIO VLY AND THIS CUD ENHANCE NOCTURNAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 70/LOW 70S INLAND TO MID 70S COAST. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF DIGS THRU THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STALLED OUT WEAK FRONT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SEABREEZE MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SO WILL FCST AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. PRECIP WATERS HAVE DECREASED SOME BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY IN THE SOUPY AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BY CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH MOST AREAS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 245 PM SUN...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH AN UPPER TROF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...BUT NOT ON THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF EACH WAVE. OVERALL SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE THROUGHOUT WITH SFC TROUGH RE- DEVELOPING INLAND MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CAP POPS NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER PATTERN SLOWLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY VFR THRU THE EVENING. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS LATE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. FOG/STRATUS LIFTS QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE BUT REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN SCTD SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 245 PM SUN...UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS WITH LOCALLY LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... SW WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS THRU THE EVENING AS SYNOPTIC FLOW BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESS AND INLAND WEAK FRONT RE-DEVELOPS. THE WEAK FRONT MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO NORTHERN MARINE ZONE LATE TONIGHT BEFORE PUSHING BACK NORTH EARLY MONDAY. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 KT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS MON AFTN. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FOOTERS LIMITED TO OUTER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS THRU MON AFTN. LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 245 PM SUN...OVERALL EXPECT S/SW WINDS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD. SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND SPEEDS OF STRONGEST WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO WED...WILL CONTINUE TO CAP WINDS AT 20KT AND SEAS AT 5FT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF 6FT SEAS AND STRONGER WINDS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WED. THU AND FRI MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH S/SW WINDS AOB 15KT AND SEAS 5FT OR LESS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTC |
| #530162 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:36 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 332 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS WEEK...ACCOMPANIED BY WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRIER AND WARMER AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A HUMID TROPICAL AIRMASS OVERHEAD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SC AND GA HAS SO FAR HAD TROUBLE SPREADING INTO THE ILM FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THE SUBSIDENCE/BLOW OFF FROM VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER THE GULF STREAM IS SUPPRESSING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DESPITE CAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BESIDES THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...HEIGHTS HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY...DECREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION MID LEVELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE DRIER. STILL EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS SC. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ENTERING WESTERN KY/TN...WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST IT WILL HELP PUSH THE 5H TROUGH AXIS EAST...MOVING THE GULF STREAM CONVECTION FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA WHILE ENHANCING UPWARD MOTION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC...INTO THE EVENING. WHILE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE 5H TROUGH OVERNIGHT THEN MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST...BUT WOULD BE ENDING AROUND 06Z OR AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE BRIEFLY TAKES OVER. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH. AT THE VERY LEAST THIS WAVE WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT BUMP IN SURFACE WINDS...WITH BOTH HELPING KEEP LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE INLAND CAROLINAS MONDAY WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT TO THE NORTH TUESDAY...WHILE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DIRECT A TROPICAL AIRMASS INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING RATHER WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED TO AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST OR TWO...THE BIGGER THREAT MAY BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 2.0+ INCHES ALONG THE COAST WITH SLOW (10 MPH) STORM MOTIONS ANTICIPATED. SREF ENSEMBLES SHOW RATHER IMPRESSIVE +RA POTENTIAL WITH 0.25 INCH/6HR POPS AT 70 PERCENT FOR COASTAL SC MONDAY...A VERY HIGH NUMBER FROM THIS MODEL. WEST OF I-95 THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER AND THE UPPER TROUGH MAY PASS TOO EARLY IN THE DAY RELATIVE TO THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. OUR POPS RANGE FROM 30 PERCENT WEST OF I-95 TO 60 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. MONDAY NIGHT WE`LL BE IN BETWEEN UPPER TROUGHS WITH A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXPECTED. A SECOND RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 12Z MODELS DISPLAY FAIRLY LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE...WITH THE NAM FAVORING A LATER ARRIVAL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WE PREFER THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION WHICH MATCHES THE 00Z ECMWF MUCH BETTER...AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR OUR HIGH POPS INLAND TUESDAY AND ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING. CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL PRECIP WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM THE HOT READINGS WE`VE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED: 85-88 AT THE BEACHES TO LOWER 90S INLAND BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 70-74 RANGE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH RUNNING DOWN THE EAST COAST WEAKENS A BIT AS IT FLATTENS OUT AND SHIFTS EAST BY LATE WED INTO THURS. THEREFORE DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEEPER W-NW DRIER FLOW. PCP WATER VALUES DROP FROM AROUND 2.2 INCHES WED MORNING DOWN TO 1.6 BY WED EVENING AND DOWN LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES BY THURS EVENING. THEREFORE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AND COUNTING ON CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ISOLATED. MODELS CHANGED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH REGARD TO H5 TROUGH WITH THE LATEST RUNS PROVIDING FOR A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING FROM 588 DEM TO 591 DEM. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRIER MID LEVELS. BY LATE SAT INTO SUN MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS MORE UNIFORM RETURN FLOW SETS UP FORM FROM SFC UP THROUGH H7 AND THEN VEERS TOWARD THE W-SW THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOCALIZED CONVECTION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. SUMMER-LIKE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AS GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 90S MOST DAYS AND 70S AT NIGHT. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 12Z...A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR FOG OCCURRING AROUND THE CWA. LBT COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR...BUT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR. UPPER TROUGH HAS SHIFTED A BIT EAST...WITH CONVECTION OFFSHORE. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT ITSELF BACK TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A LEE SIDE TROUGH...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE. SCATTERED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH. STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 21-22Z...WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TODAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH/DISSIPATING FRONT REMAIN THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURES. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...MAINLY BE COMPRISED OF SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE WITH A SMALL EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL COMPONENT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15 KNOTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE AT NIGHT AND NEARSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOONS WITH THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 3-4 FT...WITH 5-FOOTERS SHOWING UP PERIODICALLY EAST OF CAPE FEAR WHERE THE EFFECTIVE FETCH LENGTH WILL BE LONGEST. INCREASED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE BIG STORY. MODELS SHOW AT LEAST TWO SEMI-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS: ONE MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND TUESDAY EVENING. EVEN OUTSIDE OF THESE "WINDOWS" WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP GIVEN THE WARM... HUMID AND UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER INLAND CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEREFORE EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW A MORE SOLID 15 KTS TO 20 KTS WED. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT TUES WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 5 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BUT MAINTAIN UP TO 15 KTS THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #530158 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:30 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 321 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND EAST MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH ON TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AS WELL...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED. IN ADDITION...WITH WEAK FLOW ANY STRONGER TSTMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS SE CONN WITH DEFORMATION ZONE. ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES EAST. THEREAFTER...WITH WEAK NE FLOW AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS OVERNIGHT DESPITE CLEARING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG LIKELY WHERE STRATUS DOES NOT DEVELOP...BEST CHANCE INTERIOR. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...MAINLY 60S...EXPECT UPPER 50S INTERIOR AND AROUND 70 NYC/NJ METRO. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AMPLIFYING OHIO VALLEY TROUGH FOR MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK RIDGING ON MONDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES WITH THE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENING TO THE WEST. MORNING STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT STRATO-CU MAY LINGER ACROSS WESTERN ZONES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND AFTERNOON SEABREEZE LIKELY MOVING WELL INLAND. IF CLOUD COVER IS LESS THAN EXPECTED...TEMPS ACROSS THE CITY/INTERIOR SHOULD RISE TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS...MID 80S. TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY JUST WEST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THE TROUGH...BUT MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY. WITH CONTINUED LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW...STRATUS LOOKS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS INTERIOR WITH SLIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...MAINLY 60S...EXPECT AROUND 70 NYC/NJ METRO. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS TIME FRAME. MINOR DIFFERENCES ON OVERALL MAIN FEATURES NOTED WITH REGARD TO MEAN ENSEMBLE/GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS TIME FRAME. ON TUESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING TROUGH/LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL STEER THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEAST. AS THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT APPROACHES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...AND ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SCT ACTIVITY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK TROUGH DOES LINGER HOWEVER...AND WOULD EXPECT MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AT THIS TIME. NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...I FEEL THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF TIME TO IRON OUT DETAILS. TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW...AND POSSIBLE BROKEN CLOUD COVER. A MOS BLEND FOLLOWED. THEREAFTER...A SLOW WARMUP IS EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH FLATTENS...AND MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. WILL FOLLOW AN HPC/MEX/MEN BLEND WHICH SHOULD HELP SMOOTH OUT ANY MOS DIFFERENCES. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH PERHAPS CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING/POSITION OF FRONT/TROUGH. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCAL MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES ALONG COASTAL LONG ISLAND. WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 23Z. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...TO NEAR CALM...WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPING WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE NYC TERMINALS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TIMING ON IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR MONDAY MORNING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...POSSIBLE THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY MONDAY AND BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH UNDER 10 KT LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MONDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING. MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. .TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MARGINAL VFR POSSIBLE MAINLY IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS AND THEN EAST OF THE WATERS. EAST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST MID TO LATE WEEK. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE THE OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 1/4 INCH...IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO PRODUCE 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES IN AN HOUR. THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND IN URBAN AREAS...WITH A LOW END FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MID WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NV/PW |
| #530157 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:29 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 317 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING DIMINISHES. THE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH QUITE A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TOWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... FOG WILL BURN OFF IN MOST AREAS BY 9AM. WEAK HIGH PRESS SHOULD LEAD TO A PARTLY SUNNY DAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY...LEADING TO A RELATIVELY WEAK SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL START MOVING NORTHEAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING FROM NW TO SE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND WEDNESDAY HOWEVER AS THE SYSTEM STALLS...WAITING ON AN UPSTREAM KICKER BEFORE IT FINALLY MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN THE BEST FORCING AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER MESOLOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AS A SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THEREFORE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN FOR THESE PERIODS AS WELL. EVENTUALLY THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND KICKING OFF MORE INTENSE CONVECTION THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S DURING THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST. READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S ARE LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT ARCS INTO THE AREA. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL START TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING...THE AREAS OF IFR TO LIFR WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN FOG. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 9 AM WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END LATE THIS EVENING. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... SPECIAL NOTE: COMMUNICATIONS CIRCUIT STILL OUT AT KRKD AND KLEW. TAF FOR KRKD WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE "AMD NOT SKED" UNTIL COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS ARE RESOLVED. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE NO ESTIMATE OF WHEN A RETURN TO SERVICE IS EXPECTED. GRAY MAINE /KGYX/ RADAR DATA WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE DUAL POLARIZATION RADAR INSTALLATION AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SITE IN GRAY MAINE IS IN PROGRESS. DURING THE INSTALLATION AND FOLLOW UP TESTING OF THIS NEW EQUIPMENT... RADAR DATA WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE. THIS COULD TAKE UP TO TEN DAYS TO COMPLETE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #530155 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:18 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 306 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS WEEK...ACCOMPANIED BY WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRIER AND WARMER AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A HUMID TROPICAL AIRMASS OVERHEAD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SC AND GA HAS SO FAR HAD TROUBLE SPREADING INTO THE ILM FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THE SUBSIDENCE/BLOW OFF FROM VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER THE GULF STREAM IS SUPPRESSING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DESPITE CAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BESIDES THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...HEIGHTS HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY...DECREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION MID LEVELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE DRIER. STILL EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS SC. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ENTERING WESTERN KY/TN...WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST IT WILL HELP PUSH THE 5H TROUGH AXIS EAST...MOVING THE GULF STREAM CONVECTION FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA WHILE ENHANCING UPWARD MOTION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC...INTO THE EVENING. WHILE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE 5H TROUGH OVERNIGHT THEN MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST...BUT WOULD BE ENDING AROUND 06Z OR AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE BRIEFLY TAKES OVER. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH. AT THE VERY LEAST THIS WAVE WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT BUMP IN SURFACE WINDS...WITH BOTH HELPING KEEP LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE INLAND CAROLINAS MONDAY WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT TO THE NORTH TUESDAY...WHILE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DIRECT A TROPICAL AIRMASS INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING RATHER WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED TO AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST OR TWO...THE BIGGER THREAT MAY BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 2.0+ INCHES ALONG THE COAST WITH SLOW (10 MPH) STORM MOTIONS ANTICIPATED. SREF ENSEMBLES SHOW RATHER IMPRESSIVE +RA POTENTIAL WITH 0.25 INCH/6HR POPS AT 70 PERCENT FOR COASTAL SC MONDAY...A VERY HIGH NUMBER FROM THIS MODEL. WEST OF I-95 THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER AND THE UPPER TROUGH MAY PASS TOO EARLY IN THE DAY RELATIVE TO THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. OUR POPS RANGE FROM 30 PERCENT WEST OF I-95 TO 60 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. MONDAY NIGHT WE`LL BE IN BETWEEN UPPER TROUGHS WITH A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXPECTED. A SECOND RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 12Z MODELS DISPLAY FAIRLY LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE...WITH THE NAM FAVORING A LATER ARRIVAL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WE PREFER THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION WHICH MATCHES THE 00Z ECMWF MUCH BETTER...AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR OUR HIGH POPS INLAND TUESDAY AND ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING. CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL PRECIP WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM THE HOT READINGS WE`VE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED: 85-88 AT THE BEACHES TO LOWER 90S INLAND BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 70-74 RANGE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH AMPLIFYING IT AT TIMES. AS ONE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUES THE MAIN TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN A BIT THROUGH MID WEEK. THE W-SW FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE NW AS TROUGH AXIS SLIPS OFF THE COAST WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO MAKE IT INTO AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND EXPECT MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE MAIN FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE MID WEEK WHICH WILL HELP KEEP SEA BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND STEER ANY SHWRS/TSTMS TOWARD THE COAST. BASICALLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER BUT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY MAINTAINING A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OVERALL. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL RETREAT BACK WEST AND DEEPEN COME LATE THURS THROUGH SAT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL PRODUCE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND GREATER CHC OF PCP ONCE AGAIN LATE THURS INTO FRI. TROUGHING ALOFT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD PUSH TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER BUT A STRONGER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND DRIER SUNNIER WEATHER MID WEEK WILL HELP WARM TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TUES AND WED. 850 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SPIKE UP WITH PEAK ON WED. CLOUDS AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER LATE THURS THROUGH SAT WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN SOME WITH TUES AND WED BEING WARMEST DAYS. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 12Z...A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR FOG OCCURRING AROUND THE CWA. LBT COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR...BUT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR. UPPER TROUGH HAS SHIFTED A BIT EAST...WITH CONVECTION OFFSHORE. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT ITSELF BACK TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A LEE SIDE TROUGH...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE. SCATTERED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH. STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 21-22Z...WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TODAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH/DISSIPATING FRONT REMAIN THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURES. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...MAINLY BE COMPRISED OF SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE WITH A SMALL EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL COMPONENT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15 KNOTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE AT NIGHT AND NEARSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOONS WITH THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 3-4 FT...WITH 5-FOOTERS SHOWING UP PERIODICALLY EAST OF CAPE FEAR WHERE THE EFFECTIVE FETCH LENGTH WILL BE LONGEST. INCREASED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE BIG STORY. MODELS SHOW AT LEAST TWO SEMI-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS: ONE MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND TUESDAY EVENING. EVEN OUTSIDE OF THESE "WINDOWS" WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP GIVEN THE WARM... HUMID AND UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER INLAND CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH MID WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW REACHING A MORE SOLID 15 KTS AND UP TO 20 KTS AT TIMES. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT TUES WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 5 FT AT TIMES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #530152 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:59 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 250 PM EDT Sun Jul 29 2012 Strong to Possibly Severe Storms Expected Rest of this Afternoon... .NEAR TERM...[Thru Tonight]... The large scale persistent longwave blocking pattern is marked by upper ridge centered over Srn Plains with high over TX panhandle. This ridge is anchored by mean troughs over W Coast and Ern states. Another ridge was centered over Cntrl Atlc Ocean. Satellite water vapor shows several vigorous shortwaves riding down ridge and into Ern trough. All this continues to place local area in weakness between ridges to our west and east and trough just our north allowing a plume of deep layer moisture to advect newd across the NE Gulf and along and east of H5/H2 shear axis. At surface main features are a WSW-ENE front from low over New England SWWD into Srn Appalachians, Cntrl GA and west to ArkLaTex region. North of front, high pressure centered over Great Lakes. a pre-frontal trough extended from front along the Piedmont SWWD into SRN GA. Looking south, subtropical ridge from Wrn Atlc WSW across Bahamas and S FL then across Cntrl Gulf of Mex. Late starting land convection, but it should increase in coverage and intensity rest of this afternoon. The focus will be N of I-10 and over GA closest to the trough and shear axis aided by lingering shortwave energy and outflow boundaries. Will put enhanced wording in GRIDs there. Additional convection assocd with Gulf sea breeze moving NEWD across Big Bend. As seabreeze advances inland and trough inches swd with assocd outflows generating cell mergers. Some storms may be strong to isold severe with wind gusts the main concern. For tonight, sct convection will linger into the late evening as reflected in HI RES guidance. Per CAM and local confidence tool best chance will be over NE tier of GA counties closest to surface trough. Some of these storms may be strong to isolated severe especially with any outflow/sea breeze mergers. Per local confidence tool best chance of strong to severe wx thru late eve will be across SE AL and adjacent SW GA and FL Panhandle. Patchy fog likely with best best N of FL border. && .SHORT TERM...[Monday through Wednesday] The large scale pattern will only slowly change. Subtropical high centered over S/Cntrl Plains with ridging dominating Wrn states EWD to the Ern Great Lakes and Wrn Gulf region. EWD, shortwaves will continue to dig SEWD into Ern longwave trough. Looking S, ridge over Cntrl Gulf and TUTT low over SE Gulf of Mex. At surface, front and trough will slowly weaken and then dissipate thru the period. As a result, ridge inches nwd across S FL. Our rain chances will modestly decrease each day to climo values as a mean 500 mb trough over the ERN CONUS continues inching EWD thru Tuesday night before shifting into Atlc on Wednesday. For Monday, models depict additional shortwave energy dropping SEWD from Cntrl Appalachians into base of trough. Another is depicted to move around subtropical ridge and into SE region. This will serve to further ignite convection. Expect convection to begin along gulf coast in the mornnig and spreading newd and filling in by late morning and afternoon. Models depict slight cooling aloft (-8C) with WLY steering flow so chances of strong to severe storms may be higher on Monday than today. Scattered storms will persist past sunset. The mid/upper pattern will continue with a light deep layer NW flow allowing Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) and/or subtle upper level short waves, to ride down ridge from plains into se region thru the period bringing distant storms to our area (even during the overnight areas). The timing, strength, and eventual track of such systems is always problematic, so we will have to evaluate this on a day-by-day basis. It`s possible that a more organized severe storm threat could emerge with one (or more) of these systems. Locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning also remain a good bet. Type 4 light WLY seabreeze will favor Gulf Coast sea breeze pushing activity towards Ern counties and keeping E coast seabreeze well east of I-75 thru Tuesday switching to type 1 moderate SW flow on Wednesday. Max temperature will rise to mid 90s Monday and Tues dropping to low 90s on Wednesday. Apparent temps should remain below 105 degrees. && .LONG TERM...[Wednesday night through next Sunday] Mean position of an upper level anticyclone in the first half of the extended will be over the southern Plains, which would put the Southeast US in a deep N-NW flow aloft. The concerns that have been advertised the last few nights about MCS activity propagating into the area from the northwest during the Wednesday to Friday timeframe still appear valid. Underneath the core of the hot dome of high pressure in the Southern Plains, low-level flow looks to largely be S-SW. This may intersect a quasi-stationary front draped NW-SE that would roughly follow the northeastern extent of the more prominent EML plume over the Plains. To the northeast of the front, the models project pool of higher low-level (0-2km) thetae extending from roughly the Missouri River Valley, to western Tennessee, and on S-SE into our forecast area. This also coincides with southern periphery of the stronger mid-level NW flow (20-25kt at 500mb). From a pattern recognition standpoint, such a setup is typically favorable for mesoscale convective systems to form near the nose of the LLJ and steeper mid-level lapse rates and then push southeast in the region of greatest potential instability, with an attendant threat of gusty winds. Numerical models, particularly beyond about 36-48 hours, tend to struggle with the timing and location of such MCS. Given the uncertainties outlined above, PoPs were kept more even between all hours of the day than what would be typically expected in the summer months around here. We went with about 30% during the overnight and about 40-50% during the daytime hours. The remainder of the forecast elements closely followed HPC guidance, with temperatures near climatological normals. For next weekend, the ridge appears to expand back to the east, leaving us in lighter flow overall, and sea-breeze activity should begin to dominate the daily fluctuations in convection again. && .AVIATION...[Through 18z Monday] Went with the usual afternoon and early evening convective tempo groups mainly between 18z-22z. This will be followed by brief periods of MVFR visibilities overnight in patchy fog similar to what we saw this morning. && .MARINE... Winds will increase a bit by this afternoon (into the 10-15 kt range), then weaken to 10 kt or less late tonight. A similar cycle is expected for Monday. However, advisory conditions are unlikely. && .FIRE WEATHER... Relative humidity levels are expected to remain above critical thresholds for the next several days, so red flag conditions are unlikely. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 74 92 73 93 74 / 30 60 20 40 30 Panama City 76 89 77 89 77 / 30 40 20 40 30 Dothan 74 95 74 93 74 / 30 40 20 40 30 Albany 74 94 74 94 74 / 30 40 20 40 30 Valdosta 72 92 72 93 73 / 40 60 30 40 30 Cross City 73 90 72 92 73 / 30 50 30 40 30 Apalachicola 77 86 78 88 78 / 30 40 30 40 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...None. FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #530151 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:57 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 147 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TODAY TO FIRE OFF A FEW SMALL SHOWERS OVER CAMERON COUNTY WHICH ARE MOVING WEST AT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. EXPECT THESE PATCHY SHOWERS TO CONTINUE PUSHING WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS POSSIBLY MOVING INTO HIDALGO COUNTY. WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING LATER THIS EVENING AND THE COLLAPSE OF THE SEAS BREEZE BOUNDARY EXPECT NO MORE CONV THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND INTO MON MORNING. AT THE HIGHER LEVELS 500 MB RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN STEADILY THROUGHOUT TOMORROW MAINTAIN FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER SEA BREEZE MAY STRUGGLE TO FORM TOMORROW POSSIBLY FIRING SOME BRIEF ISOLD AFTERNOON CONV. HOWEVER WILL HANDLE WITH SILENT 5 TO 10 % POPS MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM WITH THE MET HIGH TEMPS SHOWING THEIR USUAL WARM BIAS OVER THE MAV NUMBERS. WILL GO CLOSE TO THE MAV/MET CONSENSUS FOR MINS AND WILL GO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE MET HIGH TEMPS FOR TOMORROW AS THESE HAVE BEEN VERIFYING BETTER DURING THE SUMMERTIME HEAT. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK IN FROM THE CARIBBEAN GIVING OUR AREA A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. EXTENDED GUIDANCE AND MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INCREASE PRECIPITATION AND HAVE ADDED SILENT 10 POPS FOR SAT/SUN. && .MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...A FAIRLY LIGHT PG WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM AS THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE INLAND SURFACE TROFFING AND THE GULF RIDGING REMAINS FAIRLY BENIGN. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH THE BAY AND GULF CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. THE CONDITIONS OVER THE BAY WATERS WILL LIKELY BE THE CHOPPIEST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON DURING THE USUAL DIURNAL EFFECTS. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT THESE TO REACH SCA LEVELS. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND DECREASE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2-4 FEET RANGE THIS PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 94 79 94 / 10 10 0 10 BROWNSVILLE 78 97 78 94 / 10 10 10 10 HARLINGEN 78 100 77 98 / 10 10 0 10 MCALLEN 78 101 78 100 / 10 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 103 78 100 / 10 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 89 80 90 / 10 10 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530148 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:50 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 245 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... .CURRENTLY... KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE MOSTLY SUNNY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO THE LOWER 90S. .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A POCKET OF DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE KEPT ABOVE ALL NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS FOR TONIGHT DUE TO THIS ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE COUPLED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER POCKET OF DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MAY INVADE THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF LATE TONIGHT...THESE TIME PERIODS SHOULD BE THE FAVORED OCCASIONS FOR THE SERVICE AREA TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 55W SHOULD BE PROGRESSING WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROPICAL WAVE COULD IMPACT THE FLORIDA KEYS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY...OR AS LATE AS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UNTIL THE TIMING OF THE POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE CAN BE PINNED DOWN...NO INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ADVERTISED. && .MARINE... GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT EYW AND MTH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN AND NEAR PASSING SHOWERS. THIS POSSIBILITY IS TOO REMOTE TO BE ADVERTISED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. && .CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2009...THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 86 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 29TH. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KEY WEST 80 89 81 89 / 20 20 20 20 MARATHON 81 92 81 91 / 20 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530147 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:45 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 232 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS OVERHEAD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SC AND GA HAS SO FAR HAD TROUBLE SPREADING INTO THE ILM FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THE SUBSIDENCE/BLOW OFF FROM VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER THE GULF STREAM IS SUPPRESSING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DESPITE CAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BESIDES THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...HEIGHTS HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY...DECREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION MID LEVELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE DRIER. STILL EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS SC. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ENTERING WESTERN KY/TN...WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST IT WILL HELP PUSH THE 5H TROUGH AXIS EAST...MOVING THE GULF STREAM CONVECTION FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA WHILE ENHANCING UPWARD MOTION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC...INTO THE EVENING. WHILE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE 5H TROUGH OVERNIGHT THEN MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST...BUT WOULD BE ENDING AROUND 06Z OR AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE BRIEFLY TAKES OVER. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH. AT THE VERY LEAST THIS WAVE WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT BUMP IN SURFACE WINDS...WITH BOTH HELPING KEEP LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE MID LEVELS THE TROUGH WILL BE QUITE WEAK THIS FAR SOUTH AS THE MAIN VORT CUTS JUST SOUTH OF THE NATION`S CAPITAL. ADDITIONALLY THE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO JUST OFFSHORE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND JUST SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. THE GFS HAS ANOTHER VORT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND COULD CONCEIVABLY NECESSITATE A BUMP IN POPS AWAY FROM JUST THE COAST AS MENTIONED EARLIER. LIKE THE WRF THOUGH THE GFS AGREES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE CHANNEL. TUESDAY MAY TURN A BIT MORE ACTIVE. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRENGTHENING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE WRF MORESO IN DEGREE. ASSUMING THAT WHAT COMES TO PASS WILL SHOW RAIN CHANCES/TSTM COVERAGE RISE HIGHER INTO CHANCE RANGE. TEMPS MONDAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL AND A FEW DEGREES LOWER DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH AMPLIFYING IT AT TIMES. AS ONE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUES THE MAIN TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN A BIT THROUGH MID WEEK. THE W-SW FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE NW AS TROUGH AXIS SLIPS OFF THE COAST WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO MAKE IT INTO AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND EXPECT MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE MAIN FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE MID WEEK WHICH WILL HELP KEEP SEA BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND STEER ANY SHWRS/TSTMS TOWARD THE COAST. BASICALLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER BUT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY MAINTAINING A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OVERALL. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL RETREAT BACK WEST AND DEEPEN COME LATE THURS THROUGH SAT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL PRODUCE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND GREATER CHC OF PCP ONCE AGAIN LATE THURS INTO FRI. TROUGHING ALOFT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD PUSH TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER BUT A STRONGER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND DRIER SUNNIER WEATHER MID WEEK WILL HELP WARM TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TUES AND WED. 850 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SPIKE UP WITH PEAK ON WED. CLOUDS AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER LATE THURS THROUGH SAT WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN SOME WITH TUES AND WED BEING WARMEST DAYS. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 18Z...LOOK FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO FIRE AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER TAF ISSUANCE...FIRST ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...SPREADING NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY WESTWARD TO THE INLAND TERMINALS AROUND 21-22Z. MODERATELY HIGH PWATS AND GOOD CAPE WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL END AFTER 01Z...MAINLY FOR DIURNAL REASONS. MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. MONDAY...A GOOD CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AS THE UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES AND DEEP MOISTURE BEGINS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST. PRECIP COULD START AS EARLY AS 13-14Z FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL TERMINALS. NAM BRINGS THE CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR...THINK THIS SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY...BUT MVFR A GOOD BET. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH/DISSIPATING FRONT REMAIN THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURES. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...MAINLY BE COMPRISED OF SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE WITH A SMALL EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL COMPONENT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE ON MONDAY BUT UP ABOUT A CATEGORY INTO TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS QUITE COAST-PARALLEL AND SO A CONSIDERABLE NEARSHORE VS OFFSHORE RANGE IN SEAS MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SINCE A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATELY STRONG SWRLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC. SCEC HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS FOR PART OF THE VALID PERIOD. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER INLAND CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH MID WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW REACHING A MORE SOLID 15 KTS AND UP TO 20 KTS AT TIMES. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT TUES WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 5 FT AT TIMES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #530145 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:42 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 230 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1020MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LAST VESTIGES OF RATHER WEAK COLD FRONT NOW ORIENTED FROM SE VA INTO THE E NC COASTAL PLAIN...OR ROUGHLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KNTU-KRWI-KCLT. A SUNNY AND MARKEDLY DRIER START TO THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TD VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 60S. MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS REMAIN ELEVATED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TD LARGELY IN THE L70S OVER SE VA/NE NC COASTAL PLAIN. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SPAWNED SCT CONVECTION LAST EVENING HAS PIVOTED WELL OFFSHORE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GULF COAST AS WEAKENING, THOUGH STILL POSITIVELY TILTED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ORIENTED ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. NUMEROUS SPOKES/WEAK DISTURBANCES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE ROUNDING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MID MS VLY INTO THE MID-SOUTH. THE CLOSEST OF THESE WAVES CURRENTLY DROPPING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF IA/MO INTO W KY. GOOD MODEL SUPPORT IN TAKING THIS WAVE ACROSS KY/TN INTO THE S NC AND UPSTATE SC THROUGH THIS AFTN. GENERALLY SUNNY SKY THIS MORNING OVER THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN LACK OF ANY MID/UPR LVL MECHANISM FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION COMING FROM UPSTREAM, EXPECT MAINLY CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MOST TODAY W/LTL IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS AND RESULTANT OUTFLOWS WL LKLY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ANY ISO/SCT TSRA ACTIVITY. LCL THICKNESS TOOL STILL SUPPORT MAXIMA FM THE U80S TO L90S. SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLR SKY/LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS. POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING OVER THE EAST AS LLVL FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SE. OTHERWISE, A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COMFORTABLE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BROAD UPR LVL TROUGH TO RMN OVR THE ERN CONUS THROUGH TUE. SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT TO CROSS THE RGN...W/ AT THE SFC...TROUGHS RMNS NR THE CST AND INLAND. RATHER NEBULOUS WIND PATTERN (TYPICAL FOR LT JULY) AND ANY MID/UPR LVL MECHANISM FOR SUPPORT OF (MNLY DIURNAL) CNVTN RMNG WEAK. GUID SUGGESTS A LTL HIGHER PROB FOR DVLPG CNVTN TUE. OTRW...WILL HAVE MNLY PCLDY W/ CHC POPS (WHICH WILL NOT BE FAR FM CLIMO). LO TEMPS MNLY IN THE U60S TO L70S. HI TEMPS FM THE 80S TO ARND 90F. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... BLOCKING RIDGE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL KEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING THE WEST COAST RIDGE TO FLATTEN AND THUS DEAMPLIFY THE EAST COAST TROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND. IN THE MEANWHILE...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SLGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS NEARLY EVERY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE EACH VORT MAXIMA ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA. THE 28/12Z EURO SOLUTION IS DEEPER AND FURTHER EAST THAN THE 28/12Z GFS...WHICH WOULD PUSH PRECIP MORE OFFSHORE. AFTER WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT PLACING TROUGH AXIS WEST OF THE AREA...WHICH PLACES EASTERN VA IN A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS EACH DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PRECIP WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES) AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL HELP ENHANCE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL IRON OUT THESE DIFFERENCES AS FUTURE MODEL RUNS COME IN. OTHER DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH HANDLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BASED ON SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TROUGH PLACEMENT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY...ECMWF HAS HIGHS MID 80S WHILE MEX IS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. HAVE KEPT CURRENT TREND AND LEFT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THESE HIGHS SO HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AT 19Z...MOSTLY VFR CONDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH LOTS OF CU DEVELOPMENT. SATELLITE SHOWING LOTS OF DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO GET GOING AND GENERALLY LATE IN THE DAY. THE BEST CHC FOR ANY SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF MD/VA/NC. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT LESS THAN 10 KT AND FROM THE NE-E. SOME PTCHY FOG AGAIN PSBL FOR THE OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT CONDS TO BE MOSTLY VFR. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH ON MONDAY. NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...KEEPING TSTM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. && .EQUIPMENT... UPDATE: KAKQ RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT ON-SITE. RADAR TECHNICIANS HAVE DETERMINED THAT RADAR MOTOR HAS FAILED AND NEEDS TO BE REPLACED. THOSE REPAIRS WILL BE COMPLETED MONDAY MORNING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM |
| #530144 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:41 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 230 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .NEAR TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...CONVECTION TAKING A LITTLE LONGER TO GET GOING THAN HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING...BUT OVERALL EVOLUTION ON TRACK. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/T-STORMS OVER OUR WRN NE FL COUNTIES TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS NE FL THRU MID AFTERNOON...WHILE COVERAGE DECREASES SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION. BY LATE AFTERNOON...COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS NE FL WHILE FOCUS TURNS TO INCREASING COVERAGE ACROSS SE GA DUE TO CONVECTION AHEAD OF SFC TROF AS WELL AS DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM NE FL CONVECTION. HOURLY FORECAST POP GRIDS...ACCESSIBLE VIA OUR WEB PAGE...CONTINUE TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTED EVOLUTION. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM MONDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. STORMS WILL FIRST FORM ALONG THE GULF COAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG AS TEMPS ALOFT AT 500 MB WILL COOL TO -7 TO -8(C). HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND WENT WITH LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH AND SOUTH ZONES. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND WILL COMBINE WITH THE HUMIDITY WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES AROUND 100. MONDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVE AND MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE SW STEERING FLOW. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN IS PROJECTED FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND TROUGHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS AROUND THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST FLORIDA...WITH LESSER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH. WITH SOME SEABREEZE INTERACTION EACH AFTERNOON...WILL USE MID/HIGH END CHANCE POPS FROM JAX NORTH...WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NE FL. WITH MOPE TROUGHY A PATTERN...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO NUDGE DOWNWARD TOWARD NORMAL VALUES. && .AVIATION...LATEST TAFS REFLECT EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS THRU TONIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF THE VICINITY OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS A GOOD BET FROM STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. && .MARINE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST NW OF THE WATERS WHICH WILL PRODUCE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE WHERE CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY NECESSITATE AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL (2 FEET WITH A 12 SECOND PERIOD AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS) WILL KEEP A MODERATE RISK IN PLACE ALONG THE BEACHES...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 92 72 93 / 40 50 20 40 SSI 76 89 75 91 / 40 60 30 40 JAX 74 91 74 93 / 20 60 30 40 SGJ 75 89 74 92 / 20 50 30 30 GNV 72 91 72 92 / 20 50 30 40 OCF 72 91 72 92 / 20 40 30 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530143 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 236 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO NEW ENGLAND. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEK...WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 230 PM UPDATE...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS JUST ABOUT MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR DATA INDICATED THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION WAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NH. ONLY LOOKING AT SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THIS MOMENT...BUT MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AFTER LOOKING UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND NH. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO REFLECT THE OBSERVED TRENDS. AS THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT... EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE ALOFT AND GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY DOWN TO THE GROUND. PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE RESULT OF THIS SCENARIO WITH THE LOWER LEVELS BEING RATHER MOIST FROM RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE VERY DRY MID LEVELS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT THINK IT IS TOO SMALL A CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS RATHER SPLIT...WITH THE MET GUIDANCE HIGHER THAN THE MAV. EXPECTING AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE TUESDAY...SO STAYED CLOSER TO THE MET GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * DRY WEATHER DOMINATES TUE * UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES WED THROUGH SAT BUT NOT A WASHOUT * BEST CHANCE OF SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE WED AND SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND DETAILS... TUESDAY...DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND LACK OF A TRIGGER SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SPOT SHOWERS. TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY OVER 60 IT WILL FEEL A BIT MUGGY BUT CERTAINLY NOT OPPRESSIVE BY LATE JULY STANDARDS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A TYPICAL MID SUMMER PATTERN WHICH WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES ALONG WITH SOME HUMIDITY. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AND MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IS VERY CHALLENGING IN THIS TIME RANGE...SO ITS TOUGH TO PINPOINT THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS WED AND SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND MAY FEATURE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS SHOW THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE REGION. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES WILL AGAIN EXPAND INLAND FROM THE COAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OCCURS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTING MVFR TO RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SMALL CHANCE FOR SHRA THIS EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR MONDAY. KBDL TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHRA POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SCTD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED...MAINLY IN PROXIMITY AND W OF A N-S LINE OF KORH. WITH ANY WX...TEMPO MVFR-IFR PSBL. S/SELY FLOW PREVAILING. FOG PSBL ALONG THE SE SHORELINE TERMINALS. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE WED INTO THURS. WITH ANY WX... TEMPO MVFR-IFR PSBL. SLY FLOW PREVAILING. FOG PSBL ALONG THE SE SHORELINE TERMINALS. && .MARINE... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOIST AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S AND SE WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/FRANK |
| #530142 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:27 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 118 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TODAY TO FIRE OFF A FEW SMALL SHOWERS OVER CAMERON COUNTY WHICH ARE MOVING WEST AT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. EXPECT THESE PATCHY SHOWERS TO CONTINUE PUSHING WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS POSSIBLY MOVING INTO HIDALGO COUNTY. WILL HANDLE THESE IN THE EARLY SECTIONS OF THE TAF WORDING WITH VCSH REMARKS. WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING LATER THIS EVENING AND THE COLLAPSE OF THE SEAS BREEZE BOUNDARY EXPECT NO MORE CONV THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND INTO MON MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z MON. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...SURFACE LOW INLAND OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH THE GULF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH COULD PROVIDE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS BORDER WITH A WEAK TROUGH WITHIN THE FLOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. ALL DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS FURTHER WEST ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE AZ AND NM BORDER. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS DEVELOPS TODAY SHIFTING 850 MB FLOW FROM THE EAST. GULF MOISTURE SURGE INLAND AND A FEW DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE ALOFT WILL TRIGGER SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT 20 PERCENT POPS AT THIS TIME FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY. LATEST MODEL RUN SHOW EVEN LESS POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL BETWEEN THE 100 TO 105 ACROSS THE CWA AND LOWS WILL BE IN MID TO HIGH 70S. MONDAY...DRY PATTERN RETURNS AS RIDGE DOMINATES OVER THE REGION. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE 00Z ECMWF PROGGING A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. MARINE... TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS UP TO 3 FEET WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTLINE AS SEA BREEZE INITIATES IN THE AFTERNOON. NO SCA OR SCEC EXPECTED AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO BREEZE TODAY. WINDS DECOUPLE LATE IN THE EVENING WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. SEAS WILL REMAIN UP TO 2 FEET FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE COASTAL WATERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 95 80 94 / 10 0 0 10 BROWNSVILLE 79 96 78 94 / 10 0 10 10 HARLINGEN 78 98 77 97 / 10 0 0 10 MCALLEN 79 100 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 81 102 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 91 82 90 / 10 10 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530141 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:17 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 208 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .DISCUSSION...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED BETWEEN CUBA AND ANDROS ISLAND. RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS DRIER AIR JUST NORTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE, OVER THE KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA. OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, BUT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL STILL HELP FOCUS CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT, AROUND THE BASE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. WE HAVE ACCORDINGLY MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY CENTERED NEAR THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTHWEST AND TOWARDS WESTERN CUBA, MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH LESS OF A CAP AS MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY AND SUBSIDENCE DECREASES. IN ADDITION, WITH THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYING WEAK, SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL EASILY DEVELOP AND ADVANCE INLAND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (40 PERCENT) OVER THE INTERIOR, WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED BY CONVERGING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL EXTEND INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER BOTH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE PATTERN MAY CHANGE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY BY THURSDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. REGARDLESS, PRECIPITABLE WATERS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH 40 POPS WARRANTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO START EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ALL TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCSH AT 18Z ALTHOUGH THE MORE INLAND TERMINALS KOPF...KMIA AND KTMB ARE THE MOST LIKELY. OTHERWISE...THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES COULD KEEP THE CONVECTION JUST INLAND OF TERMINALS KPBI...KFXE AND KFLL AND KAPF. BUT ONCE THE CONVECTION STARTS INLAND THERE COULD BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MAY SPAWN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE...RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS GENERALLY 5-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO MAJOR CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 77 90 77 90 / 10 20 20 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 78 90 78 90 / 20 20 10 20 MIAMI 78 91 78 91 / 20 20 10 20 NAPLES 77 91 76 90 / 10 20 20 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530139 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:15 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 102 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. RADAR CURRENTLY ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING JUST SOME SCATTERED CU ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. EXPECTING LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ALOFT FILTERS INTO THE AREA FORM THE NORTH. HAVE REMOVED VCTS FOR LCH...LFT...ARA AND BPT. OTHERWISE...VFR AHEAD WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. && MARCOTTE && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ UPDATE... BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS...EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON BACK TO THE WEST TO INCLUDE UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 108 TO 110 DEGREES FOR AT-LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS. CONVECTION THIS MORNING IS CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE LEFT OVER BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAY EVENING`S ACTIVITY AND ENHANCED LAND-BREEZE ARE INTERACTING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MORNING`S UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE IN AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. ALONG WITH MEAN FLOW OUT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION...SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE LATE IN THE DAY...AND CONFINED TO THE COAST. THEREFORE...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RUA DISCUSSION... PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER PATCHY BR IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING AND ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING IN BR AND LOWER VIS AND CEILINGS MAY OCCUR IN AND NEAR ANY STORM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB THIS MORNING AND BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ DISCUSSION... LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP LATER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A VERY ACTIVE JET RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE AND INTO A TROF OVER THE NE CONUS. AT THE SFC...THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MIDDLE TX COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF TO OUR WEST IS PROGGED TO BE A NEAR PERMANENT FIXTURE THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGING A BIT TOWARD THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE GENERALLY IN CONTROL...AND THE SFC HIGH EXPECTED TO ALSO REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR SOUTH...NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. FOR TODAY...THE SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR INLAND WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE SURFACE OPPOSING NORTHWARD PROPAGATION...AND SHOULD LIE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES/PARISHES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH A SLUG OF RELATIVELY HIGHER MOISTURE STILL PROGGED TO HANG NEAR THE COAST...AND REMNANT BOUNDARIES/VORTICIES LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...WILL HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-10. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND/OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE A RISK WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. THE BIGGER STORY TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE HEAT...AS THE WARMEST H925/H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FCST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WILL YIELD APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...GENERALLY WHERE THE THERE IS GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR HEAT INDICES TO REACH OR EXCEED THE 108 DEGREE LOCAL CRITERIA...AND REMAIN THERE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY WILL REQUIRE EXPANDING BEFORE THE DAY IS THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP OFF A BIT EACH DAY AFTER TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WEAKENS...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY HOT WITH READINGS IN THE 90S. KEPT A RAIN-FREE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SMALL CHANCES EDGING BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY MIDWEEK. 13 MARINE... LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 94 75 93 75 92 / 20 10 10 10 10 KBPT 94 75 93 75 92 / 20 10 10 10 10 KAEX 99 74 98 75 97 / 10 10 10 10 10 KLFT 94 76 93 76 93 / 20 10 10 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...EVANGELINE... RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...VERNON. TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...TYLER. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530137 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 154 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...THEN PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. T/TDS ADJUSTED BASED ON TRENDS...WITH UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF TEMPS ACROSS SE CONN...WHERE OFFSHORE FLOW AND A BIT OF SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE INTO MID TO UPPER 70S. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AS A DEFORMATION ZONE PIVOTS THROUGH. ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY STILL POSSIBLE...WITH BEST CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHERE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS MOIST AS YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK FLOW STILL REMAINS IN PLACE AS WELL..SO HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL STILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING (SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS). A FEW STRONGER PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LOW SHEAR VALUES NOT EXPECTING SEVERE TSTMS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY WITH THE LOW LINGERING TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS FLOW...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THEN ANY PRECIP FORMATION...SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A FEW MID 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS NE NJ. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS EVENING...THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AND DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYING AT ALL LEVELS...SO COULD EVEN SEE PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MON AFTERNOON. WITH WARM AIR BEING ADVECTED IN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE SE...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO THE MID TEENS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARMER...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR HIGHS MON. USED A BLEND MAV/MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THIS PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE QUIET WEATHER IS SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH WEAKENS BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. BEGAN GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE. THE MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR THIS...SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR NOW UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE OF TIMING OF THE PRECIP. THE VORT MAX LOOKS TO PASS MORE TO THE WEST AND NORTH...SO KEPT POPS HIGHER IN THAT VICINITY. A STRONGER...MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS TO CHC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FORCING BEING PRODUCE BY THIS SHORTWAVE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS PATTERN OF SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ALL THE PASSAGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUES...BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE SW. THIS FLOW WILL INJECT IN VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR...RESULTING IN INCREASING TEMPS DURING THE WEEK. IN ADDITION...WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING...THOUGH THE MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT THE BEST CHC FOR ANYTHING TO FORM LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SCAPE VALUES REACHING UP TO BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCAL MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES ALONG COASTAL LONG ISLAND. WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 23Z. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...TO NEAR CALM...WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPING WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE NYC TERMINALS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TIMING ON IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR MONDAY MORNING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...POSSIBLE THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY MONDAY AND BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH UNDER 10 KT LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MONDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING. MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. .TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MARGINAL VFR POSSIBLE MAINLY IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS...WHILE SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 3 FT AND LESS THAN 1 FT ON THE REST OF THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY BUILD TO OVER 5 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 1/4 INCH...IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR. THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND IN URBAN AREAS...WITH A LOW END FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SINCE IT WILL BE SLOW MOVING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS IMPACTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SEARS |
| #530136 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:08 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK AS A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS PERSISTS IN THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT WHILE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. NORTHWEST FLOW HAS ALLOWED SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...BUT A LARGE SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS COMBINED WITH WARM CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE FOR LIMITED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IN THE REGION. A BKN CU DECK HAS DEVELOPED. A MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE INSTABILITY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM...RANGING FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 IN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE. ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY...ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CAUSE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. INSTABILITY...FORCING FROM THE UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE...TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY CAUSE SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN LOCATIONS NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. WEAK SHEAR PROFILES AND MOISTENING MID-LEVELS SUGGEST THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SINCE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK AND PWATS WILL BE INCREASING TOWARD 1.75 INCHES...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A VERY SLOW-MOVG H5 TROF WILL PERSIST IN THE ERN CONUS THRU MID- WK. SFC LOPRES WILL DPN IN THE GRTLKS RGN TUE NGT-WED...WHICH WILL INDUCE SELY WIND ACRS THE MID-ATLC RGN AND WILL PRESERVE A MOIST AMS IN THE RGN. THE H5 TROF WILL MOVE EWD WED NGT...WHICH WILL ALLOW SFC HIPRES TO NOSE NEWD INTO THE RGN AND AID IN MODEST DRYING OF THE LOW LVLS. MAXIMA WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE MID 80S TUE AND WED... BUT NOT FAR BLW NRML VALS. MINIMA LKLY WILL BE SLGTLY ELEVATED OWING TO BNDRY LYR MSTR AND PSBL CLD CVR. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ALTHOUGH SGFNT UPR TROF WILL BE LACKING...WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INDUCE LEE TROF LATE IN THE WK IN THE MID-ATLC RGN. SLY FLOW WILL DVLP E OF THE TROF...WHICH WILL HELP TO REINFORCE A MSTR GRADIENT ACRS THE FCST AREA AND WILL PROVIDE TEMPS AT OR SLGTLY ABV NRML. TSTM CHCS WILL INCR DIURNALLY AND SHOULD BE TIED TO A FEW PASSING SHRTWV TROFS FRI-SUN. A CDFNT MAY IMPINGE UPON THE FCST AREA EARLY NEXT WK. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDS XPCD AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. PATCHY BR MAY CAUSE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KMTN AND KBWI DURING THIS TIME. ANY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS. DAILY TSTM CHCS WILL CONT MON NGT-WED AS A SLOW-MOVG H5 TROF PERSISTS IN THE MID-ATLC RGN. THIS WAVE SHOULD MOVE E OF THE RGN ON WED NGT. SFC HIPRES WILL BUILD INTO THE RGN ON THU...BUT A LEE TROF IS XPCD LATE IN THE WK. && .MARINE... WINDS XPCD TO BE BLO SCA VALUES THROUGH TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. TSTMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS... WHICH COULD REDUCE VSBYS AND CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. TSTM CHCS WILL CONT TUE-WED AS MID-LVL PRES TROF PERSISTS IN THE MID-ATLC RGN. MARINE HAZARDS WILL REVOLVE AROUND ANY TSTMS...WHICH WILL BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE THRU MID-WK. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #530135 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1246 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH JUST FEW TO SCATTERED CU THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NO DEVELOPMENT SO FAR HAVE KEPT THE VCSH MENTION OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL AMEND IF DEVELOPMENT BEGINS. IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS IT WOULD AFFECT ALI AND VCT THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAYBE LRD BY EVENING. SEA BREEZE BEGINNING TO PUSH WESTWARD SHOULD INHIBIT CHANCES FOR CRP. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR 12Z TAFS. AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVG W ACROSS THE REGION COULD BRING ISOLATED SHRA`S OR TSRA`S TODAY...BUT MUCH OF S TX WILL REMAIN DRY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER BY TONIGHT THEREFORE AM EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS N TX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE/INVERTED TROF SEEN OVR THE WESTERN GULF VIA WATER VAPOR SATELLITE...WILL MOVE ACROSS DEEP S TX TODAY. IN ADDITION...A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVG SW ALONG THE TX COAST EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE. MODELS PROG PRECIP ACROSS E TX TODAY...QUESTION IS HOW FAR SW WILL THE PRECIP GO? MODELS SHOW THE PRECIP DISSIPATING AS IT NEARS THE NE CWA. BOTH WEAKNESSES WILL BRING SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE INTO S TX WHICH COULD BRING SOME PRECIP INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CONFLUENT/SUBSIDENT WHICH WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT. EVEN WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE...PWAT`S ARE PROGD TO REMAIN BELOW 2 INCHES WITH AN AVE OF 1.5 INCHES PROGD ACROSS A MAJORITY OF S TX. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY THEREFORE KEPT POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BUT DID KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLD SHRA`S/TSRA`S IN THE FCST. KEPT THE TREND OF SHRA`S/TSRA`S DVLPING THIS MORNING OVER THE GULF AND MOVG INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE. THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER S TX IN THE WAKE OF THE E WAVE WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIP EXPECTED ON MON. DID KEEP THE SILENT 5-10 POPS FOR ANY ROGUE SHRA OR TSRA THAT COULD DVLP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT ISNT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE ZONES AT THIS TIME. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE ON TEMPS/DEWPOINTS. HEAT INDICES COULD BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 105-109 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. MARINE...A WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS REMAINING AT OR BELOW 3 FT. ISOLD SHRA`S/TSRA`S ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE MARINE AND COASTAL AREAS... AND INLAND ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS/ZONES. NEAR PERSISTENT HIGH TEMPS. LOWS NEAR PERSISTENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MAYBE SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS THURSDAY MORNING AND BEYOND AS WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE SLIGHTLY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 77 97 76 97 77 / 10 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 75 97 75 96 75 / 10 10 10 10 10 LAREDO 79 103 78 103 78 / 10 10 10 10 10 ALICE 75 101 75 100 75 / 10 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 82 93 79 91 79 / 10 10 10 10 10 COTULLA 75 101 75 102 75 / 10 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 76 99 75 98 76 / 10 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 81 92 79 91 79 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530134 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1246 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... 18Z TAF RATIONAL BELOW. && .AVIATION... SHRA/TSRA THAT FORMED ALONG LAND BREEZE AND AIDED BY 250MB UPPER TROUGH HAS CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE. KGLS REPORTED -RA AT 17Z BUT GIVEN OBSERVED TRENDS SHOULD BE GONE BY 18Z VALID TIME. SPRINKLES MADE IT AS FAR AS WFO HGX THIS PAST HOUR. RADAR BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME NEW SHRA TRYING (KEY WORD IS TRYING) TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST NEAR MATAGORDA BAY. LOCAL 4KM SPORT/WRF AND RAP13 DO SHOW SOME SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF ABILITY TO HIT CONVECTIVE TEMPS. OTHER FACTOR IS THAT SEA BREEZE IS ALREADY SLOW TO SIMULATE THE MODEL PREDICTIONS. ACTIVITY WOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND NEAR THE COAST. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THIS TAF PACKAGE AS A RESULT. GIVEN CONTINUED DRYING FORECAST BY THE MODELS TONIGHT WILL NOT FORECAST REPEAT OF BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT SOME OF THE RURAL TAFS THAT WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING. NEXT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER. RIDGING...SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING ALOFT = VFR FOR THE MOST PART THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. 04 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ DISCUSSION... STRONG STORMS OFFSHORE FINALLY DISSIPATING BUT WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN FOR THE COASTAL ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SHORT TERM PROGS ARE INDICATING A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE SEABREEZE LATER THIS AFTN AS THINGS HEAT UP. 41 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ UPDATE... WITH SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...DECIDED TO SEND OUT AN UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE THAT HAS 20% POPS NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY. 42 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF WARM LATE JULY TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN. FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE INDICATED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NUMBERS SEEN ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS - HIGHS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES WELL INLAND AND IN THE LOWER/MID 90S NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST...LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WELL INLAND AND IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT A 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE WHICH IS STILL UNDER HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING HOURS AIDED BY WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER RIDGE. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES AND THE FACT THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...WILL CARRY POPS NO HIGHER THAN 10% AND ALLOW FOR FUTURE UPDATES IF/WHEN IT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE CLEAR WHEN/WHERE POSSIBLE STORMS MIGHT DEVELOP. 42 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 100 77 99 77 / 10 10 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 77 97 77 96 77 / 10 10 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 82 92 82 92 82 / 20 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530133 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:56 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 147 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .AVIATION... ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO START EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ALL TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCSH AT 18Z ALTHOUGH THE MORE INLAND TERMINALS KOPF...KMIA AND KTMB ARE THE MOST LIKELY. OTHERWISE...THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES COULD KEEP THE CONVECTION JUST INLAND OF TERMINALS KPBI...KFXE AND KFLL AND KAPF. BUT ONCE THE CONVECTION STARTS INLAND THERE COULD BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MAY SPAWN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. 60 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE HRRR, SUGGEST ISOLATED ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING IN THE EAST COAST METRO AREA AROUND 18Z, WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR BY 20Z. TEMPS ON TRACK TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SRLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AROUND THE APF SITE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS. OTHERWISE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS TODAY. 85/AG PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH NAM ANALYSIS SHOWED A TUTT LOW OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS...WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TEXAS...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS...WITH ANOTHER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STRETCHING TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR THE LAKE...AND A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. SO FOR TODAY...LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...ESPECIALLY EAST...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE (SUBSIDENCE) AND DRY AIR FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. PWATS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO MOSTLY DRY FOR TODAY...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SO MAINLY DRY AND HAZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE METRO AREAS AND THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 100-105F...HIGHEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AREA OF MOISTURE MOVING WESTWARD AROUND THE BASE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE DUST IS ALSO EXPECTED TO START CLEARING SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG EAST COAST METRO AREAS OVERNIGHT...FOR FORT LAUDERDALE SOUTHWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT WILL MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST TOWARDS WESTERN CUBA ON MONDAY...WITH LESS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. SO WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY. THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR FOR TUESDAY...EXCEPT THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MORE TYPICAL ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS PWATS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...WITH SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY MOSTLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTERWARDS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. PWATS AOA 2 INCHES WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EXTENDED...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AOA NORMAL. AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SRLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AROUND THE APF SITE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS. OTHERWISE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS TODAY. MARINE... WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS IN ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FIRE WEATHER... NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 77 90 77 90 / 10 20 20 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 78 90 78 90 / 20 20 10 20 MIAMI 78 91 78 91 / 20 20 10 20 NAPLES 77 91 76 90 / 10 20 20 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530132 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1247 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .AVIATION...[18 UTC CYCLE]...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z MON. LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOSTLY A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. MONITORING POSSIBILITY FOR AN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD PASS MOSTLY EAST OF THE THREE TAF SITES IF IT INITIATES AND MAINTAINS ITSELF. 32/EE AND /23 JMM && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ ..THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS MODERATE... NEAR TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...RAW UPPER AIR DATA THIS MORNING SHOWS NOSE OF U.S. PLAINS RIDGE BUILDING IN SLIGHTLY FROM THE WEST AS YESTERDAY`S LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. A COL IS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CURRENTLY...A SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION. WE ARE SEEING A VERY HUMID MORNING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AS FAR NORTH AS CHOCTAW AL AND WAYNE MS COUNTIES WITH NEAR CALM WINDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MID- AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH ADVECTED SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED SFC FRONT LAST EVENING IS BEGINNING TO MOISTEN AGAIN OVER OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PREVENT THE FIERCE EVAPORATION DEVELOPING UPDRAFTS FACED LATE YESTERDAY. ANY PRIMER UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING CLOSE TOGETHER IN THE VICINITY OF A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MAY PRIMER THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE FOR A SUBSEQUENT STRONGER UPDRAFT...OTHERWISE STILL PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT TO PROVIDE HEALTHY EVAPORATION TO DEVELOPING CUMULONIMBI. INTERESTINGLY...LOCAL MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3500-3800 J/KG JUST ALONG AND BARELY SOUTH OF I-65 ZONES BUT SFC- FREEZING LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY MEAGER (->~6.8 C/KM). HOWEVER AT BEST...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65 WHICH SUPPORTS ONGOING FORECAST. MORE SPECIFICALLY...INITIATION SHOULD BE ALONG THE BAY- AND LOCAL SEA-BREEZES. LIGHT WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD TRANSLATE THE SEA-BREEZE EASTWARD TO PROVIDE AN EASTWARD SKEW TO THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN ALONG THE COAST AND ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON WESTWARD FACING SHORELINES. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM 92 DEG (F)ON THE BEACHES TO AS HIGH AS 96 DEG(F) OVER THE INTERIOR. JUST SENT GRAPHICAST UPDATE AND MARINE ZONES OUT SHORTLY. /23 JMM MARINE...NEAR STATIONARY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OVER COASTAL WATERS (~15 NM SOUTH) COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SLIGHTLY MORE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LASTING LONGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LAND- AND SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION REVERSAL OCCURS. THIS COULD ALSO SUPPORT A FEW WATERSPOUTS THROUGH MAINLY NOON. MARINE PACKAGE OUT SHORTLY. /23 JMM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 94 75 94 75 / 20 20 30 20 PENSACOLA 92 78 93 79 / 30 20 40 20 DESTIN 87 79 87 79 / 40 20 50 20 EVERGREEN 96 72 95 73 / 30 20 40 20 WAYNESBORO 96 72 97 73 / 20 10 20 20 CAMDEN 97 70 96 73 / 20 10 20 20 CRESTVIEW 95 72 93 73 / 30 20 50 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530131 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1236 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG JUST BEFORE AND AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY AT KMCB AND KHUM. 11 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ SOUNDING DISCUSSION... NO PROBLEMS WITH THIS MORNINGS FLIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CIRRUS STRANDS WERE OBSERVED AT RELEASE. THE SOUNDING IS SATURATED FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE THROUGH 400FT AGL. THERE IS ALSO A 4 DEGREE INVERSION JUST ABOVE THAT POINT. THE PROFILE DRIES ABOVE 638MB. THE PW VALUE HAS DROPPED SINCE LAST NIGHTS FLIGHT WITH THE VALUE AT 1.87 INCHES. THE LIFTED INDEX IS AT -7.0 INDICATING A CONTINUED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. MEAN LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 5K FEET ARE FROM THE WEST AT 8KTS. FROM 5K TO 10K FEET THE WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 4KTS. ABOVE 10K FEET THE WINDS INCREASE AND REMAIN FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH 34K FEET. THE FREEZING LEVEL HAS LIFTED NEARLY A THOUSAND FEET SINCE LAST NIGHTS FLIGHT AND IS NOW AT 16727 FEET. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ SHORT TERM... EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TO REPLACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA. AS OF THIS POINT...THAT HAS NOT QUITE HAPPENED YET. MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE EXPECTING PW VALUES IN THE 1.8 TO 1.9 RANGE AND THE 00Z SOUNDING HERE AT KLIX CAME IN AT 2.05. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ONCE THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. MOSTLY 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE MID 90S AND EVEN SOME UPPER 90S IN THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS OF THE CWA. RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF A HEAT ADVISORY AS HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO REACH VERY CLOSE TO 108 IN A FEW AREAS BUT WITH THE DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND WITHOUT HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THOSE VALUES WILL BE REACHED FOR TWO OR MORE HOURS...WILL OPT TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR TODAY. THAT SAID...IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS...A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA FOR TOMORROW. LONG TERM... MUCH OF THE SAME EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE HIGH MOVES IN AND BROADENS OUT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH PEAK HEATING BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A FEW DISTURBANCES COULD MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND BRING SOME GREATER RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA BUT THOSE ARE SURELY HARD TO FORECAST DAYS IN ADVANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY REACHING THE MID 90S. AVIATION... PATCHY FOG IS OCCURRING NEAR KMCB. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 2 TO 3 THOUSAND FEET DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. ONCE SURFACE HEATING SHUTS DOWN RISK OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH GREATLY. MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SEAS OF MOSTLY ONE TO TWO FEET. STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL DOMINATE THE MARINE WEATHER THIS WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 97 74 98 73 / 20 10 10 20 BTR 96 76 97 75 / 20 10 10 10 ASD 95 77 95 77 / 20 10 20 20 MSY 94 78 93 78 / 20 10 10 20 GPT 95 78 93 78 / 20 10 20 20 PQL 95 77 94 78 / 20 20 20 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530130 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:44 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 132 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SHORT TERM (TON-TUE)... TUTT LOW MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS INHIBITING CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY AN ISOLATED EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY MOVE LOCALLY ONSHORE MAINLY NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE CEDAR KEY AREA. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT CENTRAL AND SOUTH. TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. TUTT LOW SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE PENINSULA. WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PERSIST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...PUSHING OVER THE INTERIOR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. STAGNANT PATTERN OVER THE AREA WITH SIMILAR SET UP FOR TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NATURE COAST AND INTERIOR PENINSULA. POPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW CLIMATIC NORMALS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)... THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL PROVIDE MAINLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS AND LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR AREAS OF THE PENINSULA. DURING NEXT WEEKEND MOISTURE WILL BE FILLING BACK IN OVER THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS NORTH OVER CENTRAL FL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE SEA BREEZE IS SLOWLY MOVING INLAND AND VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...SO HAVE LEFT VCTS IN FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR SRQ AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IS ALREADY WELL TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE BEST CHANCE NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 91 78 91 / 10 30 20 20 FMY 77 92 77 93 / 10 30 20 30 GIF 76 95 76 94 / 20 30 20 30 SRQ 76 89 76 90 / 10 20 20 20 BKV 73 92 73 92 / 20 30 20 20 SPG 79 91 79 90 / 20 20 20 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #530129 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:35 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 128 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE... BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE ACROSS GA/SC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 90S NEAR THE COAST WITH MID/UPPER 90S FARTHER INLAND WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. TWEAKED DEWPOINTS UPWARD A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND ALSO BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN GA IN A REGION OF 8-8.5C LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 2000-3000 J/KG CAPE AND 800-1200 J/KG DCAPE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION OF STORM UPDRAFTS AND AN INCREASE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. LATE MORNING DISCUSSION... TODAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL GA...ALSO COINCIDENT WITH A PATCH OF ALTOSTRATUS NEAR AUGUSTA. A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND LOW-LEVELS WILL WARM QUICKLY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 90S TODAY. A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY OF SOME SORT IS NOW SHOWING UP ON VISIBLE SATELLITE VIA A LINE OF CUMULUS STRETCHING ALL THE WAY FROM FOLLY BEACH SC THROUGH SAVANNAH GA TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SEABREEZE WILL AGAIN COME INTO PLAY...PERHAPS AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW. ALMOST ALL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WITH TWO SHORTWAVES POTENTIALLY AT PLAY AND A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ALONG WITH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WE ARE CONFIDENT IN ENOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE TO FORECAST LIKELY POPS FOR A FEW HOURS STRADDLING 6 PM. SEVERE TSTMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE...PRIMARY WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE DRY AIR TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MEAN FLOW IS ABOUT 15 KT TODAY VS 25 KT YESTERDAY. INHERITED SEVERE WX MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK STILL LOOKS ADEQUATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING OVER INLAND ZONES AS THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NW AND INTERACTS WITH AIR MASSES UNTAPPED FROM THE NEARER-COASTAL CONVECTION FROM MID AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD ALSO BE WELL INLAND NEARING DUSK AND THIS COULD BOOST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WITH AN INFUSION OF POOLED SURFACE DEW POINTS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL PROBABLY KEEP SCATTERED CONVECTION ROLLING... AT LEAST IN POCKETS...INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS IT PASSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WE MAINTAINED PERSISTENCE WITH 20-40 POPS THIS PERIOD. LOWS IN THE 70S. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIGHTS UP INLAND CLOSER TO THE INLAND TROUGH. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES... EXPECT CONVECTION COVERAGE TO INCREASE AS CELLS AND BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON MAKING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO COMMAND ATTENTION ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL SWING IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH BEGINNING TO WEAKEN A BIT ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD. THIS WILL CREATE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY LIMITING CONVECTION A BIT. STILL...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE PROPAGATES INLAND. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... PRIMARILY VFR AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS DIFFICULT DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY FORMED INLAND AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE AND THE SEABREEZE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INLAND. DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD AN EARLIER SPARK TIME THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER. MODELS ARE HINTING AT LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AFTER SUNSET ALONG THE COAST SO KEPT VCTS IN UNTIL 00Z. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR EXCEPT FOR SHORT-LIVED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN SOME COASTAL AREAS...CONVECTION MAY POSE A THREAT FOR DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS. TSTMS FORECAST TO HAVE A SLOW GENERAL SEAWARD STEERING REGIME AGAIN TODAY. OTHER THAN TSTM HAZARDS...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THROUGH TONIGHT. SW FLOW 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS COULD REACH UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH NOCTURNAL SURGING. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #530127 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 700 AM HST SUN JUL 29 2012 .UPDATE... WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECASTS FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THIS MORNING. ALSO...A MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AIRMET HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MAUI MOLOKAI OAHU AND KAUAI AND DROPPED FOR THE BIG ISLAND. && .SYNOPSIS... A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BREAK UP AND CLEAR THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AREAS...THANKS TO PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BEGINNING TONIGHT AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO PRODUCE A MODEST INCREASE IN WINDWARD SHOWERS... MOSTLY ON THE BIG ISLAND...MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .DISCUSSION... THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM LAST EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR LOCAL WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND EQUATORIAL LOW PRESSURE IS SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO SUPPORT 20 TO 25 MPH TRADE WINDS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS...JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD IN THE WINDIER CHANNELS. A STRONG INVERSION NEAR 8300 FEET AT LIHUE AND NEAR 9000 FEET AT HILO CAPS DEEP CONVECTION...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AS THE TRADES PUSH ACROSS WINDWARD MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITHIN AN AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE ISLANDS THROUGH THIS MORNING...LIKELY SPREADING WETNESS LEEWARD. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE CLOUD AREA PASSES WEST OF THE ISLANDS. TRADE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A TROUGH WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST ENOUGH TO BOOST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CHANNELS AND WATERS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD. ECMWF INITIALIZES A WEAK LOW...INSTEAD OF A TROUGH...WHICH ALSO IS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. SATELLITE LOOP INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST A TROUGH EXISTS...SO STRONGER WINDS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. GFS ALSO BRINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TO THE EASTERN ISLANDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH PASSES BY. HOWEVER...PREVIOUS TROUGHS PASSING SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS DID NOT AFFECT US AS STRONGLY AS MODELS SUGGESTED AT THE TIME...AND THE SAME MAY OCCUR THIS TIME. GIVEN INCREASED CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST OF INCREASED WINDS...WE WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE INCREASE IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR NOW. && .AVIATION... MVFR CIGS WILL BE CONFINED TO WINDWARD SLOPES WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING AT MOST TERMINALS. AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS RIDING ALONG THE TRADE FLOW IS AFFECTING THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND A SIERRA SERIES AIRMET IS IN EFFECT FOR MT OBSC ALONG WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST-FACING SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND. && .MARINE... WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS TONIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WINDIER CHANNELS AND WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THIS ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT 6 PM HST TODAY AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A MODERATE SIZE SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN ON MONDAY...PEAK ON TUESDAY...THEN LOWER SLOWLY ON WEDNESDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM HST TONIGHT TO 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA AND PAILOLO CHANNELS AS WELL AS MAALAEA BAY AND FOR WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. && $$ |
| #530126 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:54 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1142 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... STRONG STORMS OFFSHORE FINALLY DISSIPATING BUT WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN FOR THE COASTAL ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SHORT TERM PROGS ARE INDICATING A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE SEABREEZE LATER THIS AFTN AS THINGS HEAT UP. 41 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ UPDATE... WITH SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...DECIDED TO SEND OUT AN UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE THAT HAS 20% POPS NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY. 42 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF WARM LATE JULY TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN. FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE INDICATED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NUMBERS SEEN ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS - HIGHS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES WELL INLAND AND IN THE LOWER/MID 90S NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST...LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WELL INLAND AND IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT A 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE WHICH IS STILL UNDER HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING HOURS AIDED BY WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER RIDGE. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES AND THE FACT THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...WILL CARRY POPS NO HIGHER THAN 10% AND ALLOW FOR FUTURE UPDATES IF/WHEN IT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE CLEAR WHEN/WHERE POSSIBLE STORMS MIGHT DEVELOP. 42 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 100 77 100 77 99 / 10 10 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 97 77 97 77 96 / 10 10 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 92 82 92 82 92 / 20 20 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530125 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:38 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1235 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY THEN MOVE EAST TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1230 PM UPDATE...BIGGEST CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO PULL BACK POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS SO FAR TODAY. WHILE WE ARE SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS TOWARDS MILLINOCKET, GREENVILLE AND PATTEN, FEEL MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED SOUTH OF A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR DOVER- FOXCROFT TO TOPSFIELD. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO NOTED THAT DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING OFF CAPE COD AND SHIFTING EASTWARD. THEREFORE, STILL BELIEVE THAT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. OTHER THAN POPS, ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO CURRENT SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONS, AND MADE SOME TWEAKS TO MAX TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE RAFL POTENTIAL AND PLACEMENT. THE BULK OF THE ACTION TODAY WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z NAM AND GFS WHICH INITIALIZED WELL PER THE RADAR AND IR SATL IMAGERY. THE 00Z ECMWF MATCHED UP WELL PER THE 06Z ANALYSIS AND WAS DOING WELL W/ITS CONTINUITY. THEREFORE, A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF WAS USED FOR THE PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHICH PUTS 70-80% ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND THE COAST AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INCLUDING THE CARIBOU PRESQUE ISLE REGION. THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF MAINE SUCH AND THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND NW MAINE WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE. MDL SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT POSSIBLE TSTMS W/LIS DROPPING TO -3 AND SBCAPES FCST TO HIT 500+ JOULES ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS UP THROUGH 700MBS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IN ANY TSTMS. BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS. A BLEND OF HPC/GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED SHOWING UP TO US TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST W/READINGS HITTING THE UPPER 70S. RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS LOW PRES AND UPPER TROF PULL TO THE EAST AND FORCING WEAKENS. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE GEM/GMOS AND NAM ON THE SKY CONDITIONS WHICH SHOW A PARTIAL CLEARING TREND LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE JULY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT MAINLY DRY ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN IT SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...EXCEPT IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST. LOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS WEAK WAVES OF CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCES FOR MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS OR PATCHY NIGHTTIME FOG. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE AVERAGE OF 10 KTS THROUGH THE TERM. A BRIEF PERIOD OF 10-15 KTS WILL BE SEEN EARLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRES PASSES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE GULF OF MAINE. A SE SWELL OF 2-4 FT WILL BE SEEN THROUGH TONIGHT. FOG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR NAVIGATIONAL PURPOSES AS VSBY WILL BE LOWERED AT TIMES TO LESS THAN 1 NM AS SUCH IS THE CASE THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS MAINLY BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT |
| #530124 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:23 PM 29.Jul.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1212 PM EDT Sun Jul 29 2012 .NEAR TERM...[Thru This Aftn]... At midday EDT, convection remaining active across Apalachee Bay, but eerily absent over land, even coastal sections. Satellite water vapor shows some drier air moving south across AL/GA counties into adjacent FL altho deep plume of gulf moisture remains over waters and coasts. Still think we will see good shot of convection over FL later today and into eve. However not as confident over AL/GA. Updated grids to increase marine pops but lower POPs overland, especially Nrn counties. Also tweaked up max temps to account for less clouds/rain. previous discussion... The large scale persistent longwave blocking pattern is marked by upper ridge centered over Srn Plains with high over TX Panhandle. This ridge is anchored by mean troughs over W Coast and Ern States. Another ridge was centered over Cntrl Atlc Ocean. Satellite water vapor shows several vigorous shortwaves riding down ridge into Ern trough. The lead shortwave was crossing mid-Atlc states with upstream shortwave developing near Iowa. All this continues to place local area in weakness between ridges to our west and east and trough just our north allowing a plume of deep layer moisture to advect NEWD across the NE Gulf. At surface main features are a front from low over New England SWWD into Srn Appalachians and west to ArkLaTex region. North of front, high pressure was centered over Great lakes. A pre-frontal trough extended from front along the Piedmont SWWD into GA. Looking south, subtropical ridge from Wrn Atlc WSW across Bahamas and S FL then across Cntrl Gulf of Mex. Morning Apalachee Bay and adjacent coastal convection has not materialized as expected and will update there to lower POPs and tweak up temps. For the rest of today, there is good agreement among the GFS MOS and Convection Allowing Model (CAM) that numerous showers and tstms will affect our forecast area, especially this afternoon and early evening. the presence of the surface trough aided by lingering shortwave energy and outflow boundaries will favor an active day especially north of I-10 closest to this energy. HI RES guidance shows convection initiating along Gulf sea breeze and along frontal trough with coverage increasing (filling in) as seabreeze advances inland and trough inches swd with assocd outflows generating cell mergers. The CAM consensus forecasts peak SBCAPE values near 3000 J/kg over much of the region this afternoon, which is very unstable (even for our area, this time of year). Several models also predict at least some drying in the mid troposphere. The combination of high CAPE and boundary layer moisture, steep low layer lapse rates (aided by diabatic warming), and drier air aloft, could help contribute to isolated wet microbursts today. Model sounding show light WLY steering flow and some of the CAM NWP forecast strong updraft speeds as well, further bolstering the potential for at least a few strong to marginally severe storms with isolated winds gusts (58 MPH) and hail (quarter size) will be the main threats. However cant discount frequent cloud to ground lightning and brief heavy downpours with localized flooding. Likely POPs with enhanced wording the grids still looks good. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...None. FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #530123 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:56 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1155 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD IN FOR MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1145 UPDATE... AREAS OF PRECIPITATION HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN DIMINISHING IN SIZE LATE THIS MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND TEMPS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS SO THAT WORDING REFLECTS JUST A CHC FOR A TSTM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ------------- 800 AM UPDATE...AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXPAND ALONG THE COAST. HAVE UPDATED FCST TO REFLECT INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG COAST AND INTERIOR ZONES TODAY. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE RAIN THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY LESSEN THE CHANCES OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON IN THOSE AREAS. ------------ PREVIOUS UPDATE...WILL TWEAK POPS A BIT TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NH. ALSO UPDATED THE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. PREV DISC...WILL START THE DAY WITH FOG AND STRATUS WHICH WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE. AN AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SCRAPE ALONG THE COAST AS THE SFC LOW TREKS NE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. AN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST THRU SRN NY STATE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF US...HOWEVER AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST AND WITH A LITTLE SFC HEATING EXPECT AFTN THUNDERSHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THEY WILL SCATTERED AND NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL GET ONE BUT DO HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SKIE WILL CLEAR TONIGHT BUT THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP. TEMPS WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. FOR MONDAY ANY FOG WILL LIFT LEAVING A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH PTLY CLDY CONDITIONS AND WARM. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE GFS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WAVE AFTER WAVE AT 500MB PRODUCING NEARLY CONSTANT TROUGHING AT 500 MB THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH MAY BE OVERDOING THINGS A LITTLE BIT...AND HAVE THEREFORE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO 12Z EURO...WHICH IS BETTER...BUT WOULD STILL PUT US IN AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE EURO WOULD FOCUS ON 2 DECENT WAVES MOVING THROUGH...AROUND WED...AND AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST...SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND....AND HAVE FOCUSED THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS AROUND THESE 2 EVENTS. OTHERWISE...HAVE PLAYED THINGS CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR POPS...WITH SLT CHC POPS THRU THE WEEKEND...ONLY BRINGING THE MTNS UP TO CHC POPS DURING THE DAYS. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD LOOK RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AND TDS WILL RUN ON THE HUMID SIDE. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM... 8 AM UPDATE...AREA OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG COAST AND INTERIOR WILL LEAD TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME LIFR IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MVFR TO IFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IN FOG AND STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE IN FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS. LONG TERM...MON NIGHT THRU THU WILL SEE PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS. SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ON WED...AND TUE NIGHT WILL BE THE BEST CHC FOR VLY FOG. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... SPECIAL NOTE: COMMUNICATIONS CIRCUIT STILL OUT AT KRKD AND KLEW. TAF FOR KRKD WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE "AMD NOT SKED" UNTIL COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS ARE RESOLVED. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE NO ESTIMATE OF WHEN A RETURN TO SERVICE IS EXPECTED. GRAY MAINE /KGYX/ RADAR DATA WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE DUAL POLARIZATION RADAR INSTALLATION AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SITE IN GRAY MAINE IS IN PROGRESS. DURING THE INSTALLATION AND FOLLOW UP TESTING OF THIS NEW EQUIPMENT... RADAR DATA WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE. THIS COULD TAKE UP TO TEN DAYS TO COMPLETE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... |
| #530122 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:54 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1150 AM AST SUN JUL 29 2012 .UPDATE...A BAND OF MOISTURE HAVE BEEN MOVING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE USVI AS SEEN IN THE MIMIC/CIMMS TPW ANALYSIS. GPS MET DATA SHOWED PW VALUES INCREASING UP TO 1.85 INCHES WITH THIS MOIST AIR. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER PR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF PR THIS AFTERNOON. 29/12Z TJSJ MORNING SOUNDING SUGGESTED A 0-6KM AVG WIND OF 96/13KTS. THIS MEANS THAT THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD BE FOCUS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PR THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES WRF MODEL ALSO SUGGESTS THE SAME SCENARIO. MINOR CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. && .AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE TAFS SITES THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR BTWN 29/17 AND 29/22Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ. TJSJ MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED MAINLY LLVL EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KTS FROM SFC TO 10 KFT. WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME +TSRA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM AST SUN JUL 29 2012/ SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF 20N IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE A WEAK INDUCED TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL PROMOTE AN UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNSTABLE THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK AS ITCZ MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY LIFTED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING AN INCREASE ON SHOWERS OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED TO THE TROUGH. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BEFORE SUNRISE. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS CONVECTION ACROSS INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE AND SQUALLY WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND SHOWERY THROUGH FRIDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ POOLS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 29/16Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL AFFECT THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED OVER TJMZ...AND TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN SHOWERS. MARINE...MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS FRESH WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE AREA. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT INCREASING WINDS...CHOPPY SEAS AND SQUALLY WEATHER BETWEEN LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 90 79 88 78 / 40 50 70 60 STT 90 80 91 80 / 40 60 70 70 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #530121 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:47 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1142 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... TODAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL GA...ALSO COINCIDENT WITH A PATCH OF ALTOSTRATUS NEAR AUGUSTA. A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND LOW-LEVELS WILL WARM QUICKLY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 90S TODAY. A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY OF SOME SORT IS NOW SHOWING UP ON VISIBLE SATELLITE VIA A LINE OF CUMULUS STRETCHING ALL THE WAY FROM FOLLY BEACH SC THROUGH SAVANNAH GA TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SEABREEZE WILL AGAIN COME INTO PLAY...PERHAPS AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW. ALMOST ALL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WITH TWO SHORTWAVES POTENTIALLY AT PLAY AND A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ALONG WITH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WE ARE CONFIDENT IN ENOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE TO FORECAST LIKELY POPS FOR A FEW HOURS STRADDLING 6 PM. SEVERE TSTMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE...PRIMARY WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE DRY AIR TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MEAN FLOW IS ABOUT 15 KT TODAY VS 25 KT YESTERDAY. INHERITED SEVERE WX MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK STILL LOOKS ADEQUATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING OVER INLAND ZONES AS THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NW AND INTERACTS WITH AIR MASSES UNTAPPED FROM THE NEARER-COASTAL CONVECTION FROM MID AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD ALSO BE WELL INLAND NEARING DUSK AND THIS COULD BOOST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WITH AN INFUSION OF POOLED SURFACE DEW POINTS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL PROBABLY KEEP SCATTERED CONVECTION ROLLING... AT LEAST IN POCKETS...INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS IT PASSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WE MAINTAINED PERSISTENCE WITH 20-40 POPS THIS PERIOD. LOWS IN THE 70S. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIGHTS UP INLAND CLOSER TO THE INLAND TROUGH. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES... EXPECT CONVECTION COVERAGE TO INCREASE AS CELLS AND BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON MAKING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO COMMAND ATTENTION ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL SWING IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH BEGINNING TO WEAKEN A BIT ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD. THIS WILL CREATE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY LIMITING CONVECTION A BIT. STILL...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE PROPAGATES INLAND. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR IS EXPECTED UNTIL CONVECTION ERUPTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE MAINTAINED 18Z FOR VCTS INITIATION WITH TEMPO TIMES JUST A BIT LATER SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE OVERNIGHT WHEN SOME CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXIST WITH FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR EXCEPT FOR SHORT-LIVED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN SOME COASTAL AREAS...CONVECTION MAY POSE A THREAT FOR DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS. TSTMS FORECAST TO HAVE A SLOW GENERAL SEAWARD STEERING REGIME AGAIN TODAY. OTHER THAN TSTM HAZARDS...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THROUGH TONIGHT. SW FLOW 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS COULD REACH UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH NOCTURNAL SURGING. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #530119 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:38 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1132 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1020MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LAST VESTIGES OF RATHER WEAK COLD FRONT NOW ORIENTED FROM SE VA INTO THE E NC COASTAL PLAIN...OR ROUGHLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KNTU-KRWI-KCLT. A SUNNY AND MARKEDLY DRIER START TO THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TD VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 60S. MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS REMAIN ELEVATED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TD LARGELY IN THE L70S OVER SE VA/NE NC COASTAL PLAIN. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SPAWNED SCT CONVECTION LAST EVENING HAS PIVOTED WELL OFFSHORE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GULF COAST AS WEAKENING, THOUGH STILL POSITIVELY TILTED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ORIENTED ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. NUMEROUS SPOKES/WEAK DISTURBANCES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE ROUNDING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MID MS VLY INTO THE MID-SOUTH. THE CLOSEST OF THESE WAVES CURRENTLY DROPPING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF IA/MO INTO W KY. GOOD MODEL SUPPORT IN TAKING THIS WAVE ACROSS KY/TN INTO THE S NC AND UPSTATE SC THROUGH THIS AFTN. GENERALLY SUNNY SKY THIS MORNING OVER THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN LACK OF ANY MID/UPR LVL MECHANISM FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION COMING FROM UPSTREAM, EXPECT MAINLY CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MOST TODAY W/LTL IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS AND RESULTANT OUTFLOWS WL LKLY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ANY ISO/SCT TSRA ACTIVITY. LCL THICKNESS TOOL STILL SUPPORT MAXIMA FM THE U80S TO L90S. SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLR SKY/LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS. POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING OVER THE EAST AS LLVL FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SE. OTHERWISE, A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COMFORTABLE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BROAD UPR LVL TROUGH TO RMN OVR THE ERN CONUS THROUGH TUE. SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT TO CROSS THE RGN...W/ AT THE SFC...TROUGHS RMNS NR THE CST AND INLAND. RATHER NEBULOUS WIND PATTERN (TYPICAL FOR LT JULY) AND ANY MID/UPR LVL MECHANISM FOR SUPPORT OF (MNLY DIURNAL) CNVTN RMNG WEAK. GUID SUGGESTS A LTL HIGHER PROB FOR DVLPG CNVTN TUE. OTRW...WILL HAVE MNLY PCLDY W/ CHC POPS (WHICH WILL NOT BE FAR FM CLIMO). LO TEMPS MNLY IN THE U60S TO L70S. HI TEMPS FM THE 80S TO ARND 90F. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... BLOCKING RIDGE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL KEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING THE WEST COAST RIDGE TO FLATTEN AND THUS DEAMPLIFY THE EAST COAST TROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND. IN THE MEANWHILE...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SLGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS NEARLY EVERY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE EACH VORT MAXIMA ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA. THE 28/12Z EURO SOLUTION IS DEEPER AND FURTHER EAST THAN THE 28/12Z GFS...WHICH WOULD PUSH PRECIP MORE OFFSHORE. AFTER WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT PLACING TROUGH AXIS WEST OF THE AREA...WHICH PLACES EASTERN VA IN A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS EACH DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PRECIP WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES) AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL HELP ENHANCE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL IRON OUT THESE DIFFERENCES AS FUTURE MODEL RUNS COME IN. OTHER DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH HANDLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BASED ON SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TROUGH PLACEMENT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY...ECMWF HAS HIGHS MID 80S WHILE MEX IS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. HAVE KEPT CURRENT TREND AND LEFT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THESE HIGHS SO HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL...THERE IS THE POSSIBILTY OF NUISANCE MVFR BR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 09Z-13Z THIS MORNING. OTW...LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS LATE. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH ON MONDAY. NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...KEEPING TSTM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. && .EQUIPMENT... UPDATE: KAKQ RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT ON-SITE. RADAR TECHNICIANS HAVE DETERMINED THAT RADAR MOTOR HAS FAILED AND NEEDS TO BE REPLACED. THOSE REPAIRS WILL BE COMPLETED MONDAY MORNING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM |
| #530120 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:38 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1128 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1020MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LAST VESTIGES OF RATHER WEAK COLD FRONT NOW ORIENTED FROM SE VA INTO THE E NC COASTAL PLAIN...OR ROUGHLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KNTU-KRWI- KCLT. A SUNNY AND MARKEDLY DRIER START TO THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TD VALUES GENERALLY INTO THE 60S. MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS REMAIN ELEVATED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TD LARGELY IN THE L70S OVER SE VA/NE NC COASTAL PLAIN. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SPAWNED SCT CONVECTION LAST EVENING HAS PIVOTED WELL OFFSHORE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GULF COAST AS WEAKENING, THOUGH STILL POSITIVELY TILTED MID- UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ORIENTED ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. NUMEROUS SPOKES/WEAK DISTURBANCES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE ROUNDING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE MID MS VLY INTO TO THE MID-SOUTH. THE CLOSEST OF THESE CURRENTLY DROPPING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF IA/MO INTO W KY. GOOD MODEL SUPPORT IN TAKING THIS WAVE ACROSS KY/TN INTO THE S NC AND UPSTATE SC THIS AFTN. GENERALLY SUNNY SKY TO BEGIN THE DAY FOR MOST SITES IN THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN LACK OF ANY MID/UPR LVL MECHANISM FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION COMING FROM UPSTREAM, EXPECT MAINLY CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MOST TODAY W/LTL IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS AND RESULTANT OUTFLOWS WL LKLY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ANY ISO/SCT TSRA ACTIVITY. LCL THICKNESS TOOL STILL SUPPORT MAXIMA FM THE U80S TO L90S. SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLR SKY/LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS. POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING AS LLVL FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SE. OTHERWISE, A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COMFORTABLE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BROAD UPR LVL TROUGH TO RMN OVR THE ERN CONUS THROUGH TUE. SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT TO CROSS THE RGN...W/ AT THE SFC...TROUGHS RMNS NR THE CST AND INLAND. RATHER NEBULOUS WIND PATTERN (TYPICAL FOR LT JULY) AND ANY MID/UPR LVL MECHANISM FOR SUPPORT OF (MNLY DIURNAL) CNVTN RMNG WEAK. GUID SUGGESTS A LTL HIGHER PROB FOR DVLPG CNVTN TUE. OTRW...WILL HAVE MNLY PCLDY W/ CHC POPS (WHICH WILL NOT BE FAR FM CLIMO). LO TEMPS MNLY IN THE U60S TO L70S. HI TEMPS FM THE 80S TO ARND 90F. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... BLOCKING RIDGE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL KEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING THE WEST COAST RIDGE TO FLATTEN AND THUS DEAMPLIFY THE EAST COAST TROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND. IN THE MEANWHILE...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SLGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS NEARLY EVERY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE EACH VORT MAXIMA ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA. THE 28/12Z EURO SOLUTION IS DEEPER AND FURTHER EAST THAN THE 28/12Z GFS...WHICH WOULD PUSH PRECIP MORE OFFSHORE. AFTER WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT PLACING TROUGH AXIS WEST OF THE AREA...WHICH PLACES EASTERN VA IN A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS EACH DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PRECIP WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES) AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL HELP ENHANCE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL IRON OUT THESE DIFFERENCES AS FUTURE MODEL RUNS COME IN. OTHER DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH HANDLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BASED ON SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TROUGH PLACEMENT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY...ECMWF HAS HIGHS MID 80S WHILE MEX IS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. HAVE KEPT CURRENT TREND AND LEFT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THESE HIGHS SO HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL...THERE IS THE POSSIBILTY OF NUISANCE MVFR BR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 09Z-13Z THIS MORNING. OTW...LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS LATE. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH ON MONDAY. NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...KEEPING TSTM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. && .EQUIPMENT... UPDATE: KAKQ RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT ON-SITE. RADAR TECHNICIANS HAVE DETERMINED THAT RADAR MOTOR HAS FAILED AND NEEDS TO BE REPLACED. THOSE REPAIRS WILL BE COMPLETED MONDAY MORNING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM |
| #530118 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:29 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1023 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 ...THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS MODERATE... .NEAR TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...RAW UPPER AIR DATA THIS MORNING SHOWS NOSE OF U.S. PLAINS RIDGE BUILDING IN SLIGHTLY FROM THE WEST AS YESTERDAY`S LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. A COL IS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CURRENTLY...A SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION. WE ARE SEEING A VERY HUMID MORNING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AS FAR NORTH AS CHOCTAW AL AND WAYNE MS COUNTIES WITH NEAR CALM WINDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MID- AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH ADVECTED SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED SFC FRONT LAST EVENING IS BEGINNING TO MOISTEN AGAIN OVER OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PREVENT THE FIERCE EVAPORATION DEVELOPING UPDRAFTS FACED LATE YESTERDAY. ANY PRIMER UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING CLOSE TOGETHER IN THE VICINITY OF A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MAY PRIMER THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE FOR A SUBSEQUENT STRONGER UPDRAFT...OTHERWISE STILL PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT TO PROVIDE HEALTHY EVAPORATION TO DEVELOPING CUMULONIMBI. INTERESTINGLY...LOCAL MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3500-3800 J/KG JUST ALONG AND BARELY SOUTH OF I-65 ZONES BUT SFC- FREEZING LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY MEAGER (->~6.8 C/KM). HOWEVER AT BEST...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65 WHICH SUPPORTS ONGOING FORECAST. MORE SPECIFICALLY...INITIATION SHOULD BE ALONG THE BAY- AND LOCAL SEA-BREEZES. LIGHT WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD TRANSLATE THE SEA-BREEZE EASTWARD TO PROVIDE AN EASTWARD SKEW TO THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN ALONG THE COAST AND ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON WESTWARD FACING SHORELINES. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM 92 DEG (F)ON THE BEACHES TO AS HIGH AS 96 DEG(F) OVER THE INTERIOR. JUST SENT GRAPHICAST UPDATE AND MARINE ZONES OUT SHORTLY. /23 JMM && .MARINE...NEAR STATIONARY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OVER COASTAL WATERS (~15 NM SOUTH) COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SLIGHTLY MORE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LASTING LONGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LAND- AND SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION REVERSAL OCCURS. THIS COULD ALSO SUPPORT A FEW WATERSPOUTS THROUGH MAINLY NOON. MARINE PACKAGE OUT SHORTLY. /23 JMM .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 94 75 94 75 / 20 20 30 20 PENSACOLA 92 78 93 79 / 30 20 40 20 DESTIN 87 79 87 79 / 40 20 50 20 EVERGREEN 96 72 95 73 / 30 20 40 20 WAYNESBORO 96 72 97 73 / 20 10 20 20 CAMDEN 97 70 96 73 / 20 10 20 20 CRESTVIEW 95 72 93 73 / 30 20 50 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530117 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:26 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1021 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .UPDATE... BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS...EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON BACK TO THE WEST TO INCLUDE UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 108 TO 110 DEGREES FOR AT-LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS. CONVECTION THIS MORNING IS CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE LEFT OVER BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAY EVENING`S ACTIVITY AND ENHANCED LAND-BREEZE ARE INTERACTING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MORNING`S UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE IN AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. ALONG WITH MEAN FLOW OUT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION...SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE LATE IN THE DAY...AND CONFINED TO THE COAST. THEREFORE...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RUA && .DISCUSSION... && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER PATCHY BR IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING AND ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING IN BR AND LOWER VIS AND CEILINGS MAY OCCUR IN AND NEAR ANY STORM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB THIS MORNING AND BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ DISCUSSION... LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP LATER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A VERY ACTIVE JET RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE AND INTO A TROF OVER THE NE CONUS. AT THE SFC...THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MIDDLE TX COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF TO OUR WEST IS PROGGED TO BE A NEAR PERMANENT FIXTURE THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGING A BIT TOWARD THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE GENERALLY IN CONTROL...AND THE SFC HIGH EXPECTED TO ALSO REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR SOUTH...NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. FOR TODAY...THE SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR INLAND WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE SURFACE OPPOSING NORTHWARD PROPAGATION...AND SHOULD LIE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES/PARISHES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH A SLUG OF RELATIVELY HIGHER MOISTURE STILL PROGGED TO HANG NEAR THE COAST...AND REMNANT BOUNDARIES/VORTICIES LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...WILL HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-10. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND/OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE A RISK WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. THE BIGGER STORY TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE HEAT...AS THE WARMEST H925/H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FCST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WILL YIELD APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...GENERALLY WHERE THE THERE IS GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR HEAT INDICES TO REACH OR EXCEED THE 108 DEGREE LOCAL CRITERIA...AND REMAIN THERE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY WILL REQUIRE EXPANDING BEFORE THE DAY IS THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP OFF A BIT EACH DAY AFTER TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WEAKENS...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY HOT WITH READINGS IN THE 90S. KEPT A RAIN-FREE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SMALL CHANCES EDGING BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY MIDWEEK. 13 MARINE... LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 94 75 93 75 92 / 20 10 10 10 10 KBPT 94 75 93 75 92 / 20 10 10 10 10 KAEX 99 74 98 75 97 / 10 10 10 10 10 KLFT 94 76 93 76 93 / 20 10 10 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...EVANGELINE... RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...VERNON. TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...TYLER. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530115 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:20 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1115 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... .CURRENTLY... KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. .SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)... IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED BETWEEN CUBA AND ANDROS ISLAND TODAY. THE 12Z KKEY SOUNDING IS VERY UNSTABLE AND EXTREMELY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE JUST BELOW ONE AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONSTANT THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A NEAR ZERO CHANCE OF RAINFALL TODAY. && .MARINE... LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON ISLAND AIRPORTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LINE OF LOW CUMULUS... RETURNING TO VFR BY 16Z. WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. && .CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1996...1.23 INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 29TH. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530114 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:09 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1103 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS OVERHEAD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 11 AM SUNDAY...REMNANTS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE GULF STREAM IS ENHANCING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE DIURNAL HEATING WILL GENERATE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE CAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG AND HEATING WILL AGAIN LEAD TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE THAN A DAY AGO. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY THERE IS MORE MID LEVEL DRY AIR...PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS DROPPED INTO THE 1.6-1.7 INCH RANGE...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE ARE LESS FAVORABLE. SO INITIALLY THINK CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE...EVEN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY THINK COVERAGE WILL EXPAND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC AREAS. GIVEN THE VERTICAL PROFILES DAMAGING WIND REMAINS A THREAT FROM STRONGEST STORMS...BUT THINK OVERALL COVERAGE OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE LESS COMPARED TO SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE MID LEVELS THE TROUGH WILL BE QUITE WEAK THIS FAR SOUTH AS THE MAIN VORT CUTS JUST SOUTH OF THE NATION`S CAPITAL. ADDITIONALLY THE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO JUST OFFSHORE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND JUST SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. THE GFS HAS ANOTHER VORT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND COULD CONCEIVABLY NECESSITATE A BUMP IN POPS AWAY FROM JUST THE COAST AS MENTIONED EARLIER. LIKE THE WRF THOUGH THE GFS AGREES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE CHANNEL. TUESDAY MAY TURN A BIT MORE ACTIVE. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRENGTHENING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE WRF MORESO IN DEGREE. ASSUMING THAT WHAT COMES TO PASS WILL SHOW RAIN CHANCES/TSTM COVERAGE RISE HIGHER INTO CHANCE RANGE. TEMPS MONDAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL AND A FEW DEGREES LOWER DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH AMPLIFYING IT AT TIMES. AS ONE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUES THE MAIN TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN A BIT THROUGH MID WEEK. THE W-SW FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE NW AS TROUGH AXIS SLIPS OFF THE COAST WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO MAKE IT INTO AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND EXPECT MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE MAIN FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE MID WEEK WHICH WILL HELP KEEP SEA BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND STEER ANY SHWRS/TSTMS TOWARD THE COAST. BASICALLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER BUT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY MAINTAINING A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OVERALL. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL RETREAT BACK WEST AND DEEPEN COME LATE THURS THROUGH SAT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL PRODUCE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND GREATER CHC OF PCP ONCE AGAIN LATE THURS INTO FRI. TROUGHING ALOFT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD PUSH TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER BUT A STRONGER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND DRIER SUNNIER WEATHER MID WEEK WILL HELP WARM TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TUES AND WED. 850 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SPIKE UP WITH PEAK ON WED. CLOUDS AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER LATE THURS THROUGH SAT WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN SOME WITH TUES AND WED BEING WARMEST DAYS. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 12Z...A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR FOG OCCURRING AROUND THE CWA. LBT COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR...BUT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR. UPPER TROUGH HAS SHIFTED A BIT EAST...WITH CONVECTION OFFSHORE. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT ITSELF BACK TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A LEE SIDE TROUGH...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE. SCATTERED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH. STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 21-22Z...WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TODAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 11 AM SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 3 TO 4 FT THOUGH ISOLATED 5 FT IS POSSIBLE WELL AWAY FROM SHORE LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE COMPRISED OF SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE WITH A SMALL EAST- SOUTHEAST SWELL COMPONENT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE ON MONDAY BUT UP ABOUT A CATEGORY INTO TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS QUITE COAST-PARALLEL AND SO A CONSIDERABLE NEARSHORE VS OFFSHORE RANGE IN SEAS MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SINCE A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATELY STRONG SWRLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC. SCEC HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS FOR PART OF THE VALID PERIOD. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER INLAND CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH MID WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW REACHING A MORE SOLID 15 KTS AND UP TO 20 KTS AT TIMES. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT TUES WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 5 FT AT TIMES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #530113 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1007 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE ON A WEAK FRONT SITS ASTRIDE THE DELAWARE NEW JERSEY COAST TODAY. THEN FROM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS WILL DRAW THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL FRONT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND KEEP US IN A WARM HUMID SUMMER PATTERN ALL OF THIS COMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO WHEEL AWAY TOWARDS OUR NORTHEAST. THIS IS KEEPING A FEW SHOWERS GOING TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA AND AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH IT WILL DRAG THESE SHOWERS WITH IT. WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR ZONES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND ALLOW THE COLUMN TO DRY OUT GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER- 80S. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS WITH LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED ELSEWHERE AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... WE CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STILL WITH NOT MUCH GRADIENT FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE NICELY TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID-60S WITH DEWPOINTS ABOUT THE SAME. THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AS SOME OF THE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT FOR THE MOST PART NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING DENSE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 500 MB: A GENERALLY WEAK TROUGH WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK PERMITTING AN OVERALL SUMMERY HUMID PATTERN. TEMPS: NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. DEWPOINTS: ON THE LOWER SIDE OF HUMID /SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB TEMPS/ EARLY THIS WORK WEEK WILL PROBABLY BECOME FAR MORE NOTICEABLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN WE EXPRESS GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN OUR WARMING TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE DAILIES MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WERE BLENDED 00Z/29 NCEP GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS 330PM EDT SATURDAY JULY 28 KPHI FCST. CONFIDENCE ON MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS BELOW AVG. WE SAW THE SWODY3 FOR TUESDAY. ITS AN OVERALL SUMMER PATTERN... MOSTLY RAIN FREE BUT WHEN IT RAINS...IT POURS. THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE RETURN SE FLOW LOW CLOUDINESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...POSSIBLY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE AT MANY OF OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING, WITH SOME SCATTERED IFR BASES AROUND. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A LIGHT NORTH AND SLIGHT EASTERLY PUSH AT THE SURFACE HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN THEM THIS MORNING. EXPECT BASES TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MOST, IF NOT ALL, SITES BECOMING VFR BY AROUND 16Z. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY THE OVERALL SURFACE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AT LESS THAN 8 KNOTS. INSTEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH SO OUR INTERIOR TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE A MORE NORTHERLY WIND WHILE CLOSER TO THE COAST IT SHOULD BE MORE NORTHEASTERLY...AGAIN VERY LIGHT WINDS AND VERY HARD TO DEFINE A DIRECTION. DURING THE DAY A STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL FORM AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED MAKING FOR A GOOD VFR FLYING DAY. OUTLOOK... MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CIGS IN THE AFTN BUT MVFR CONDS IN FOG/ST/SC IN THE MORNING HOURS. WED AFTERNOON-THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR. THERE IS CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 15 KT... STARTING OUT S-SELY MON/TUE TRENDING S OR SW WED AND THU. && .MARINE... SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS OUR WATERS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. COULD STILL SEE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING AND THEN OVER OUR NORTHERN WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS PRETTY RELAXED SO WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE AROUND 3 FEET. OUTLOOK... CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SE FLOW MON-TUE TRENDING S-SW WED AND THU. && .HYDROLOGY... THIS PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A COUPLE OF AFTERNOON/EVENINGS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE EXCESSIVE SHORT TERM RAINFALL. PARTS OF SUSSEX...MORRIS AND WARREN COUNTIES IN NJ HAVE GRIDDED 1HR FFG UNDER 1.1 INCHES AND ARE AT FIRST GLANCE...THE MOST VULNERABLE NON URBAN REGIONS. THE PERKIOMEN AT EAST GREENVILLE IN BUCKS COUNTY AND METEDECONK RIVER AT LAKEWOOD IN NORTHERN OCEAN COUNTY RESPONDED TO ACTION BUT BELOW FS YDY-SUNDAY. SO AS WE GRADUALLY RECOVER FROM OUR SHORT TERM RAINFALL DEFICIT...THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING INCREASES. YDYS 012Z/28 46 MEMBER NAEFS AXIS OF 2+ RAINFALL WAS MOST CONFIDENTLY STATED FOR THE DEL VALLEY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ASTRO TIDES ARE INCREASING AS WE HEAD FOR FULL MOON EARLY ON THE 2ND. SOME OF OUR GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME INDICATES WE MAY RECEIVE THE 1/2 FOOT POSITIVE DEPARTURE NECESSARY TO FORCE STATEMENTS REGARDING POSSIBLE MARGINAL MINOR AT WORST TIDAL INUNDATION FLOODING....ALONG THE ATLC COASTAL PORTIONS OF NJ AND DE. && .RIP CURRENTS... ALTHOUGH THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE, AN 11 SECOND WAVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN NJ. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG |
| #530112 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1038 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO NEW ENGLAND. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEK...WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1030 AM UPDATE... STILL AWAITING THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKED TO BE OVER OUR REGION AT THIS TIME...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT TO SEA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR DATA INDICATING THE CONFLICT BETWEEN THE LOW-LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. THE NET RESULT HAS BEEN TO MAINTAIN A BAND OF RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST NY STATE...WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. THE CLOUDS AND THE RAINFALL HAS LEAD TO NEARLY STATIC TEMPERATURES. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS THERE TO REFLECT THE OBSERVED TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THERE IS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY...AND MAINLY CHANCE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP A LOT OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD HOLD HIGHS BETWEEN 70 AND 75 IN MOST LOCALES. ITS EVEN POSSIBLE A FEW LOCATIONS ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGH TERRAIN DO NOT REACH 70. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... TONIGHT...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE. POPS DIMINISH TO NIL AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS... ALONG WITH THE RAINFALL FROM SATURDAY AND WHATEVER FALLS TODAY... WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * DRY WEATHER DOMINATES MON AND TUE * UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES WED THROUGH SAT BUT NOT A WASHOUT * BEST CHANCE OF SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE WED AND SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND DETAILS... MONDAY AND TUESDAY... DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND LACK OF A TRIGGER SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SPOT SHOWERS. TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY OVER 60 IT WILL FEEL A BIT MUGGY BUT CERTAINLY NOT OPPRESSIVE BY LATE JULY STANDARDS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A TYPICAL MID SUMMER PATTERN WHICH WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES ALONG WITH SOME HUMIDITY. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AND MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IS VERY CHALLENGING IN THIS TIME RANGE...SO ITS TOUGH TO PINPOINT THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS WED AND SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND MAY FEATURE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS SHOW THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE REGION. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES WILL AGAIN EXPAND INLAND FROM THE COAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OCCURS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING THRU TODAY...THEN IFR AGAIN TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPS THRU THE DAY TODAY. THEN MVFR/IFR RE-DEVELOPS TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SCTD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED...MAINLY IN PROXIMITY AND W OF A N-S LINE OF KORH. WITH ANY WX...TEMPO MVFR-IFR PSBL. S/SELY FLOW PREVAILING. FOG PSBL ALONG THE SE SHORELINE TERMINALS. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE WED INTO THURS. WITH ANY WX... TEMPO MVFR-IFR PSBL. SLY FLOW PREVAILING. FOG PSBL ALONG THE SE SHORELINE TERMINALS. && .MARINE... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH TONIGHT. MOIST AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S AND SE WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK |
| #530111 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1042 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONT OR TROF WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST TO THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE EAST FOCUSING THE AXIS OF BEST FORCING AND LIFT ALONG COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR AREAS AFFECTED BY THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER INLAND WHERE DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTY TSTORMS WITH ANY DEEPER CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW GIVEN WEAK FORCING. HIGHS THIS AFTN WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 90. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY...THE UPR TRF WILL BEGIN TO SHARPEN A BIT LATE AS MORE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS COMBINED WITH AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE NEAR THE CST WILL LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION IMD CST WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY INLAND. TEMPS AGAIN WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO UPR 70S BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 215 AM SUN...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH AN UPPER TROF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...BUT NOT ON THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF EACH WAVE. AT THE SURFACE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC WITH A LEESIDE TROF OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE. THE RESULT WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL LIMIT POPS TO 50% OR LOWER. FOR LATE WEEK WILL LEAVE POPS AT SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER RANGE FCST. WITH DECREASED THICKNESS/THERMAL TROF...HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL THRU MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH DEWPTS WILL RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S...HIGHEST BEACHES WHERE WATER TEMPS NOW IN LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LOW CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT LATE THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE ANY ISOLD/SCTD CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTN. LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 215 AM SUN...UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS BY DAY...AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LIGHT FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT THE GENERAL SW WIND PATTERN TO SET AS INLAND THERMAL TROF RE-DEVELOPS THIS AFTN. SYNOPTIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SW AOB 15 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS POSS NEAR CONVECTION. MOST NEAR SHORE WTRS WILL HAVE SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT. LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 215 AM SUN...12Z/28 ECMWF AND 00Z GFS/NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER AROUND TUESDAY WITH WINDS/SEAS COMING UP TO SMALL CRAFT. ECMWF/NAM ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT KEEPING CONDITIONS BELOW SCA SO FORECAST WILL TREND IN THAT DIRECTION. DID NOT USE 00Z WAVEWATCH SINCE IT IS BASED OFF THE GFS AND USED SWAN INSTEAD...KEEPING SEAS AT OR BELOW 5 FEET. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF |
| #530110 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 953 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...THEN PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH A SFC LOW LINGERING JUST OFFSHORE AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING OUT SOUTH OF THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SWING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TO LIKELY WITH EXPECTATION OF DEFORMATION ZONE...RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWER/EMBEDDED TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TO PIVOT THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS MOIST AS YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK FLOW STILL REMAINS IN PLACE AS WELL..SO HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL STILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING (SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS). A FEW STRONGER PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LOW SHEAR VALUES NOT EXPECTING SEVERE TSTMS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY WITH THE LOW LINGERING TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS FLOW...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THEN ANY PRECIP FORMATION...SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MAV AND MET HAD FAIRLY SIMILAR VALUES...SO JUST WENT WITH A BLEND FOR THE HIGHS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS EVENING...THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AND DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYING AT ALL LEVELS...SO COULD EVEN SEE PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MON AFTERNOON. WITH WARM AIR BEING ADVECTED IN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE SE...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO THE MID TEENS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARMER...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR HIGHS MON. USED A BLEND MAV/MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THIS PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE QUIET WEATHER IS SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH WEAKENS BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. BEGAN GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE. THE MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR THIS...SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR NOW UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE OF TIMING OF THE PRECIP. THE VORT MAX LOOKS TO PASS MORE TO THE WEST AND NORTH...SO KEPT POPS HIGHER IN THAT VICINITY. A STRONGER...MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS TO CHC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FORCING BEING PRODUCE BY THIS SHORTWAVE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS PATTERN OF SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ALL THE PASSAGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUES...BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE SW. THIS FLOW WILL INJECT IN VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR...RESULTING IN INCREASING TEMPS DURING THE WEEK. IN ADDITION...WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING...THOUGH THE MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT THE BEST CHC FOR ANYTHING TO FORM LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SCAPE VALUES REACHING UP TO BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WIDESPREAD MARGINAL VFR CEILING OF 1000 TO 2000 FT REMAINS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AND WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE AND NORTHEAST FLOW NOT EXPECTING QUICK IMPROVEMENT...NOT UNTIL 16Z TO 18Z...WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND CONDITIONS. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR WITH LOCAL MARGINAL VFR FOG ACROSS LONG ISLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING. WAVE OF SHOWERS MOVING TOWARDS KSWF GENERALLY DISSIPATING HOWEVER SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS. AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON...A STRONGER WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP LATER ON. WILL TEMPO TSTMS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE EVENING AND WINDS BECOME L/V. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING TERMINALS. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MONDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .MONDAY...SUB-VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR. .TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALY VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL SUB- VFR POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. .THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS...WHILE SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 3 FT AND LESS THAN 1 FT ON THE REST OF THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY BUILD TO OVER 5 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR. THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND IN URBAN AREAS...WITH A LOW END FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SINCE IT WILL BE SLOW MOVING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS IMPACTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SEARS |
| #530109 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1001 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD PROVIDES UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...BUT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH WARM CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE FOR LIMITED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A BKN CU DECK IS EXPECTED...CAUSING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE INSTABILITY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM...RANGING FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 IN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE. AVG TEMPS FOR JUL SO FAR - AS OF YDA THIS IS STILL THE WARMEST ON RECORD AT DCA (84.2 VS. 83.9 LAST YR). BWI IS AT 81.8 FOR THE MONTH...WHICH IS TIED FOR 1ST W/ 1934 AND 2010. FOR THIS JUL IAD IS ALSO #1 ON AN AVG TEMP OF 80.8 (VS. 80.4 LAST YR). && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SHRTWV TROF/VORT MAX WILL CROSS RGN ON MON...REINVIGORATING SCT/SHWRS TSTMS ACRS RGN...WITH HIGH CHC POPS IN PLACE. SFC TROF WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH MON NGT/TUE...WITH ASSOCIATED ULVL TROF AXIS NEARLY STATIONARY OVR MID-ATLC. RESULT WILL BE CONT SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS IN TUE...WITH LIKELY POPS BY AFTN ACRS N...WHERE CVRG MAY BE ENHANCED AS ANOTHER M/ULVL DISTURBANCE PASSES WITHIN BROADER ULVL CYCLONIC FLOW. ATTM...MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODEST FCRG AND SHEAR MAY SVR WX UNLIKELY MON. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND BETTER INSTABILITY DURG PEAK HEATING TUE...SO IF SHRTWV TROF IMPACTS RGN DURG AFTN/EVE...STRONG/EVEN SVR TSTMS CUD RESULT. MAXIMA MON/TUE MAINLY BTWN 85-90F...WITH MINIMA ABV NRML...IN M60S-L70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ULVL TROF AXIS RMN IN VICINITY THRU XTND PERIOD. TSTMS CVRG WILL BE REGULATED BY TIMING/STRENGTH OF MINOR SHRTWV TROFS CROSSING MID-ATLC. CHC POPS TUE NGT INTO SAT. TEMPS SHUD AVG SLIGHTLY ABV NRML...WITH MAXIMA IN U80S/L90S AND MINIMA FROM U60S-M70S. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDS XPCTD AT ALL SITES TDA/TNGT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDS PREVAIL FOR BULK OF THE WK...THO MVFR BR PSBL DURG EARLY MRNGS IF BNDRY LYR CAN SATURATE. AT LEAST SCT MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BRING PTNL FOR LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MON THRU FRI. GREATEST CVRG OF CNVCTN MON/TUE AFTNS. && .MARINE... WINDS XPCTD TO BE BLO SCA VALUES TDA/TNGT. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURG AFTN/EVE HOURS. SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE LGT AND ADZYS NOT ANTICIPATED. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ PRODUCTS...LASORSA/WOODY!/KONARIK |
| #530108 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:29 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1021 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE HRRR, SUGGEST ISOLATED ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING IN THE EAST COAST METRO AREA AROUND 18Z, WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR BY 20Z. TEMPS ON TRACK TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SRLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AROUND THE APF SITE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS. OTHERWISE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS TODAY. 85/AG PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH NAM ANALYSIS SHOWED A TUTT LOW OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS...WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TEXAS...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS...WITH ANOTHER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STRETCHING TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR THE LAKE...AND A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. SO FOR TODAY...LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...ESPECIALLY EAST...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE (SUBSIDENCE) AND DRY AIR FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. PWATS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO MOSTLY DRY FOR TODAY...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SO MAINLY DRY AND HAZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE METRO AREAS AND THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 100-105F...HIGHEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AREA OF MOISTURE MOVING WESTWARD AROUND THE BASE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE DUST IS ALSO EXPECTED TO START CLEARING SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG EAST COAST METRO AREAS OVERNIGHT...FOR FORT LAUDERDALE SOUTHWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT WILL MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST TOWARDS WESTERN CUBA ON MONDAY...WITH LESS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. SO WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY. THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR FOR TUESDAY...EXCEPT THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MORE TYPICAL ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS PWATS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...WITH SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY MOSTLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTERWARDS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. PWATS AOA 2 INCHES WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EXTENDED...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AOA NORMAL. AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SRLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AROUND THE APF SITE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS. OTHERWISE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS TODAY. MARINE... WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS IN ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FIRE WEATHER... NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 90 77 90 77 / 10 10 20 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 90 78 90 78 / 10 20 20 10 MIAMI 91 78 90 78 / 10 20 20 10 NAPLES 90 77 91 76 / 10 10 20 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530107 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:29 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1027 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING WILL PROMOTE PLENTY OF DIURNAL HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OWING TO THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BEING POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA...WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW TO MID 90S INLAND. HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT NEAR 100 AND THE LOW 100S WHERE UNIMPEDED SUNSHINE PERSISTS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NOT SEE EXTENDED PERIODS OF THIS DUE TO LOW- LEVEL CLOUD FORMATION AND SEA BREEZE PROPAGATION. BAND OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS PARKED NORTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN TODAY. TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES COAST WILL ALLOW FOR COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS HEIGHTS LOWER...INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS ALONG WITH LIFT FROM BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES AS WELL AS SUBSEQUENT BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL ALLOW FOR A HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A H50 VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...BUT BULK OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS A RESULT OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMICS NORTH...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS...INCLUDING MUCH OF LAKE...VOLUSIA AND EXTREME NORTH/NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF SEMINOLE AND ORANGE COUNTIES FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY-MID EVENING. EVERYONE ELSE...EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TREASURE COAST WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS. STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW ANY STORMS TO PUSH BACK TOWARD THE COAST...MAINLY FROM THE CAPE NORTH. && .AVIATION... PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAVE LEFT VCTS IN FOR DAB AND LEE AT THIS TIME DUE TO OVERALL EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE OF STORMS...BUT WILL REASSESS FOR TEMPO GROUPS FOR 18Z FORECAST. && .MARINE... LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...MAINTAINING A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND INTRACOASTAL WATERS WITH AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST BACKING SOUTHEAST BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON DUE TO THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FEET. AREAS FROM ABOUT THE CAPE NORTH WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530106 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:51 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 330 AM HST SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...THANKS TO PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. A BAND OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL INCREASE CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BEGINNING TONIGHT AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH. && .DISCUSSION... THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM LAST EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR LOCAL WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND EQUATORIAL LOW PRESSURE IS SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO SUPPORT 20 TO 25 MPH TRADE WINDS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS...JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD IN THE WINDIER CHANNELS. A STRONG INVERSION NEAR 8300 FEET AT LIHUE AND NEAR 9000 FEET AT HILO CAPS DEEP CONVECTION...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AS THE TRADES PUSH ACROSS WINDWARD MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITHIN AN AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE ISLANDS THROUGH THIS MORNING...LIKELY SPREADING WETNESS LEEWARD. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE CLOUD AREA PASSES WEST OF THE ISLANDS. TRADE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A TROUGH WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST ENOUGH TO BOOST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CHANNELS AND WATERS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD. ECMWF INITIALIZES A WEAK LOW...INSTEAD OF A TROUGH...WHICH ALSO IS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. SATELLITE LOOP INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST A TROUGH EXISTS...SO STRONGER WINDS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. GFS ALSO BRINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TO THE EASTERN ISLANDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH PASSES BY. HOWEVER...PREVIOUS TROUGHS PASSING SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS DID NOT AFFECT US AS STRONGLY AS MODELS SUGGESTED AT THE TIME...AND THE SAME MAY OCCUR THIS TIME. GIVEN INCREASED CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST OF INCREASED WINDS...WE WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE INCREASE IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR NOW. && .AVIATION... MVFR CIGS WILL BE CONFINED TO WINDWARD SLOPES WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING AT MOST TERMINALS. AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS RIDING ALONG THE TRADE FLOW IS AFFECTING THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND A SIERRA SERIES AIRMET IS IN EFFECT FOR MT OBSC ALONG WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST-FACING SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND. && .MARINE... WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS TONIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WINDIER CHANNELS AND WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THIS ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT 6 PM HST TODAY AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A MODERATE SIZE SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN ON MONDAY...PEAK ON TUESDAY...THEN LOWER SLOWLY ON WEDNESDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM HST TONIGHT TO 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA AND PAILOLO CHANNELS AS WELL AS MAALAEA BAY AND FOR WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. && $$ |
| #530105 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:21 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 916 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...THEN PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH A SFC LOW LINGERING JUST OFFSHORE AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING OUT SOUTH OF THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TODAY...WITH A VORT MAX EXPECTED TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA. RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING ALREADY SHOWING SHOWER AND TSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER THOUGH...LATEST MESO MODELS NOT GRASPING THIS DEVELOPMENT TOO WELL...PLACING MORE TO THE SOUTH. SO WILL TOP POPS AT HIGHER END CHC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND OCCURRING. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS MOIST AS THE PREVIOUS DAY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK FLOW STILL REMAINS IN PLACE AS WELL..SO IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. NOT EXPECTING STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS TODAY WITH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES GREATLY DIMINISHED IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY WITH THE LOW LINGERING TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS FLOW...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THEN ANY PRECIP FORMATION...SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MAV AND MET HAD FAIRLY SIMILAR VALUES...SO JUST WENT WITH A BLEND FOR THE HIGHS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS EVENING...THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AND DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYING AT ALL LEVELS...SO COULD EVEN SEE PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MON AFTERNOON. WITH WARM AIR BEING ADVECTED IN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE SE...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO THE MID TEENS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARMER...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR HIGHS MON. USED A BLEND MAV/MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THIS PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE QUIET WEATHER IS SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH WEAKENS BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. BEGAN GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE. THE MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR THIS...SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR NOW UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE OF TIMING OF THE PRECIP. THE VORT MAX LOOKS TO PASS MORE TO THE WEST AND NORTH...SO KEPT POPS HIGHER IN THAT VICINITY. A STRONGER...MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS TO CHC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FORCING BEING PRODUCE BY THIS SHORTWAVE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS PATTERN OF SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ALL THE PASSAGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUES...BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE SW. THIS FLOW WILL INJECT IN VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR...RESULTING IN INCREASING TEMPS DURING THE WEEK. IN ADDITION...WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY SHOWER/TSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING...THOUGH THE MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT THE BEST CHC FOR ANYTHING TO FORM LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SCAPE VALUES REACHING UP TO BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WIDESPREAD MARGINAL VFR CEILING OF 1000 TO 2000 FT REMAINS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AND WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE AND NORTHEAST FLOW NOT EXPECTING QUICK IMPROVEMENT...NOT UNTIL 16Z TO 18Z...WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND CONDITIONS. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR WITH LOCAL MARGINAL VFR FOG ACROSS LONG ISLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING. WAVE OF SHOWERS MOVING TOWARDS KSWF GENERALLY DISSIPATING HOWEVER SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS. AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON...A STRONGER WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP LATER ON. WILL TEMPO TSTMS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE EVENING AND WINDS BECOME L/V. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING TERMINALS. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MONDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .MONDAY...SUB-VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR. .TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALY VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL SUB- VFR POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. .THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS...WHILE SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 3 FT AND LESS THAN 1 FT ON THE REST OF THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY BUILD TO OVER 5 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE OVERALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR. THIS COULD CREATE MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND IN URBAN AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS IMPACTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SEARS |
| #530104 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:08 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 806 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SOUNDING DISCUSSION... NO PROBLEMS WITH THIS MORNINGS FLIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CIRRUS STRANDS WERE OBSERVED AT RELEASE. THE SOUNDING IS SATURATED FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE THROUGH 400FT AGL. THERE IS ALSO A 4 DEGREE INVERSION JUST ABOVE THAT POINT. THE PROFILE DRIES ABOVE 638MB. THE PW VALUE HAS DROPPED SINCE LAST NIGHTS FLIGHT WITH THE VALUE AT 1.87 INCHES. THE LIFTED INDEX IS AT -7.0 INDICATING A CONTINUED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. MEAN LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 5K FEET ARE FROM THE WEST AT 8KTS. FROM 5K TO 10K FEET THE WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 4KTS. ABOVE 10K FEET THE WINDS INCREASE AND REMAIN FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH 34K FEET. THE FREEZING LEVEL HAS LIFTED NEARLY A THOUSAND FEET SINCE LAST NIGHTS FLIGHT AND IS NOW AT 16727 FEET. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ SHORT TERM... EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TO REPLACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA. AS OF THIS POINT...THAT HAS NOT QUITE HAPPENED YET. MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE EXPECTING PW VALUES IN THE 1.8 TO 1.9 RANGE AND THE 00Z SOUNDING HERE AT KLIX CAME IN AT 2.05. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ONCE THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. MOSTLY 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE MID 90S AND EVEN SOME UPPER 90S IN THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS OF THE CWA. RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF A HEAT ADVISORY AS HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO REACH VERY CLOSE TO 108 IN A FEW AREAS BUT WITH THE DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND WITHOUT HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THOSE VALUES WILL BE REACHED FOR TWO OR MORE HOURS...WILL OPT TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR TODAY. THAT SAID...IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS...A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA FOR TOMORROW. LONG TERM... MUCH OF THE SAME EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE HIGH MOVES IN AND BROADENS OUT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH PEAK HEATING BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A FEW DISTURBANCES COULD MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND BRING SOME GREATER RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA BUT THOSE ARE SURELY HARD TO FORECAST DAYS IN ADVANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY REACHING THE MID 90S. AVIATION... PATCHY FOG IS OCCURRING NEAR KMCB. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 2 TO 3 THOUSAND FEET DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. ONCE SURFACE HEATING SHUTS DOWN RISK OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH GREATLY. MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SEAS OF MOSTLY ONE TO TWO FEET. STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL DOMINATE THE MARINE WEATHER THIS WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 97 74 98 72 / 20 10 10 20 BTR 96 77 97 74 / 20 10 10 10 ASD 95 76 96 77 / 20 10 20 20 MSY 94 78 93 78 / 20 10 10 20 GPT 95 78 93 78 / 20 10 20 20 PQL 95 76 94 78 / 20 20 20 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530103 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:08 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 903 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .UPDATE...LATEST HI-RES AND SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREE ON A SCENARIO TODAY WITH INCREASING WEST-COAST SEABREEZE CONVECTION THIS MORNING SPREADING ACROSS NE FL TO COAST THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH EAST COAST SEABREEZE PINNED TO COAST. DECREASING COVERAGE NE FL 20Z ONWARD WITH FOCUS TURNING TO SE GA...WITH SFC TROF NW OF AREA FOCUSING CONVECTION ALONG WITH NWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER NE FL CONVECTION. WILL ADJUST HOURLY POPS TO REFLECT THIS SCENARIO WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS...NSSL HI-RES WRF...RAPID REFRESH GUIDANCE AND SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE TO LOW-LEVEL TEMPS...CURRENT FCST OF MID 90S SE GA LOOKS GOOD...ALONG WITH LWR 90S NE FL WITH POSSIBLE EARLIER PCPN. && .AVIATION...LATEST TAFS HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT SITES...EXCEPT MVFR VICINITY OF SCT`D TO NUMEROUS TSRA. MAY HAVE TO HAVE TEMPO GROUPS A LITTLE EARLIER IN AFTN IF ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WEST OF AREA SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. && .MARINE...NO SIG CHGS PLANNED IN NEXT CWF ISSUANCE...WITH CONTINUED S TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS AND 2-4 FT SEAS. RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL (2 FEET WITH A 12 SECOND PERIOD AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS) WILL KEEP A MODERATE RISK IN PLACE ALONG THE BEACHES...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 94 72 92 71 / 50 40 60 40 SSI 90 76 89 75 / 50 40 60 40 JAX 92 74 90 75 / 60 20 60 40 SGJ 90 75 89 74 / 60 20 50 40 GNV 92 72 90 73 / 60 20 40 30 OCF 92 72 91 72 / 40 20 40 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530102 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:02 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 851 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY THEN MOVE EAST TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 850 AM UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL IN ACROSS DOWNEAST AND COASTAL MAINE AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE IS STARTING TO STRENGTHEN ITS HOLD ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT DOWNEAST AND REDUCED SKY COVER ACROSS AROOSTOOK COUNTY. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE RAFL POTENTIAL AND PLACEMENT. THE BULK OF THE ACTION TODAY WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z NAM AND GFS WHICH INITIALIZED WELL PER THE RADAR AND IR SATL IMAGERY. THE 00Z ECMWF MATCHED UP WELL PER THE 06Z ANALYSIS AND WAS DOING WELL W/ITS CONTINUITY. THEREFORE, A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF WAS USED FOR THE PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHICH PUTS 70-80% ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND THE COAST AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INCLUDING THE CARIBOU PRESQUE ISLE REGION. THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF MAINE SUCH AND THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND NW MAINE WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE. MDL SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT POSSIBLE TSTMS W/LIS DROPPING TO -3 AND SBCAPES FCST TO HIT 500+ JOULES ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS UP THROUGH 700MBS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IN ANY TSTMS. BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS. A BLEND OF HPC/GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED SHOWING UP TO US TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST W/READINGS HITTING THE UPPER 70S. RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS LOW PRES AND UPPER TROF PULL TO THE EAST AND FORCING WEAKENS. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE GEM/GMOS AND NAM ON THE SKY CONDITIONS WHICH SHOW A PARTIAL CLEARING TREND LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE JULY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT MAINLY DRY ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN IT SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...EXCEPT IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST. LOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS WEAK WAVES OF CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCES FOR MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS OR PATCHY NIGHTTIME FOG. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE AVERAGE OF 10 KTS THROUGH THE TERM. A BRIEF PERIOD OF 10-15 KTS WILL BE SEEN EARLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRES PASSES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE GULF OF MAINE. A SE SWELL OF 2-4 FT WILL BE SEEN THROUGH TONIGHT. FOG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR NAVIGATIONAL PURPOSES AS VSBY WILL BE LOWERED AT TIMES TO LESS THAN 1 NM AS SUCH IS THE CASE THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS MAINLY BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT |
| #530101 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:53 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 847 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .FOR THE MORNING UPDATE... DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HAS INCREASED A BIT WITH TBW 12Z SOUNDING INDICATING PCPW OF 1.74 INCHES. ATMOSPHERE CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH A FEW RESIDUAL CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES AND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW REMAINS WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL PUSH THE SEA BREEZE SLOWLY INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...BUT EXTREMELY WEAK FLOW WILL MINIMIZE ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL KEEP POPS BELOW CLIMATIC NORMALS. && .AVIATION... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF FMY AND RSW...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR FMY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS STARTING AT 18Z. && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #530100 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:41 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 840 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO NEW ENGLAND. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEK...WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 730 AM UPDATE... A CLUSTER OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY HAS OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NH AND FAR NORTHERN MA...BUT THE REST OF THE REGION WAS DRY. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THERE IS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY...AND MAINLY CHANCE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP A LOT OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD HOLD HIGHS BETWEEN 70 AND 75 IN MOST LOCALES. ITS EVEN POSSIBLE A FEW LOCATIONS ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGH TERRAIN DO NOT REACH 70. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... TONIGHT...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE. POPS DIMINISH TO NIL AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS... ALONG WITH THE RAINFALL FROM SATURDAY AND WHATEVER FALLS TODAY... WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * DRY WEATHER DOMINATES MON AND TUE * UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES WED THROUGH SAT BUT NOT A WASHOUT * BEST CHANCE OF SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE WED AND SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND DETAILS... MONDAY AND TUESDAY... DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND LACK OF A TRIGGER SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SPOT SHOWERS. TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY OVER 60 IT WILL FEEL A BIT MUGGY BUT CERTAINLY NOT OPPRESSIVE BY LATE JULY STANDARDS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A TYPICAL MID SUMMER PATTERN WHICH WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES ALONG WITH SOME HUMIDITY. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AND MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IS VERY CHALLENGING IN THIS TIME RANGE...SO ITS TOUGH TO PINPOINT THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS WED AND SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND MAY FEATURE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS SHOW THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE REGION. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ON THE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES WILL AGAIN EXPAND INLAND FROM THE COAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OCCURS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING THRU TODAY...THEN IFR AGAIN TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPS THRU THE DAY TODAY. THEN MVFR/IFR RE-DEVELOPS TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SCTD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED...MAINLY IN PROXIMITY AND W OF A N-S LINE OF KORH. WITH ANY WX...TEMPO MVFR-IFR PSBL. S/SELY FLOW PREVAILING. FOG PSBL ALONG THE SE SHORELINE TERMINALS. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE WED INTO THURS. WITH ANY WX... TEMPO MVFR-IFR PSBL. SLY FLOW PREVAILING. FOG PSBL ALONG THE SE SHORELINE TERMINALS. && .MARINE... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH TONIGHT. MOIST AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S AND SE WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK |
| #530098 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:29 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 825 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD IN FOR MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 800 AM UPDATE...AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXPAND ALONG THE COAST. HAVE UPDATED FCST TO REFLECT INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG COAST AND INTERIOR ZONES TODAY. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE RAIN THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY LESSEN THE CHANCES OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON IN THOSE AREAS. ------------ PREVIOUS UPDATE...WILL TWEAK POPS A BIT TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NH. ALSO UPDATED THE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. PREV DISC...WILL START THE DAY WITH FOG AND STRATUS WHICH WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE. AN AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SCRAPE ALONG THE COAST AS THE SFC LOW TREKS NE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. AN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST THRU SRN NY STATE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF US...HOWEVER AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST AND WITH A LITTLE SFC HEATING EXPECT AFTN THUNDERSHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THEY WILL SCATTERED AND NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL GET ONE BUT DO HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SKIE WILL CLEAR TONIGHT BUT THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP. TEMPS WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. FOR MONDAY ANY FOG WILL LIFT LEAVING A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH PTLY CLDY CONDITIONS AND WARM. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE GFS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WAVE AFTER WAVE AT 500MB PRODUCING NEARLY CONSTANT TROUGHING AT 500 MB THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH MAY BE OVERDOING THINGS A LITTLE BIT...AND HAVE THEREFORE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO 12Z EURO...WHICH IS BETTER...BUT WOULD STILL PUT US IN AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE EURO WOULD FOCUS ON 2 DECENT WAVES MOVING THROUGH...AROUND WED...AND AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST...SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND....AND HAVE FOCUSED THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS AROUND THESE 2 EVENTS. OTHERWISE...HAVE PLAYED THINGS CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR POPS...WITH SLT CHC POPS THRU THE WEEKEND...ONLY BRINGING THE MTNS UP TO CHC POPS DURING THE DAYS. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD LOOK RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AND TDS WILL RUN ON THE HUMID SIDE. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM... 8 AM UPDATE...AREA OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG COAST AND INTERIOR WILL LEAD TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME LIFR IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MVFR TO IFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IN FOG AND STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE IN FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS. LONG TERM...MON NIGHT THRU THU WILL SEE PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS. SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ON WED...AND TUE NIGHT WILL BE THE BEST CHC FOR VLY FOG. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... SPECIAL NOTE: COMMUNICATIONS CIRCUIT STILL OUT AT KRKD AND KLEW. TAF FOR KRKD WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE "AMD NOT SKED" UNTIL COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS ARE RESOLVED. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE NO ESTIMATE OF WHEN A RETURN TO SERVICE IS EXPECTED. GRAY MAINE /KGYX/ RADAR DATA WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE DUAL POLARIZATION RADAR INSTALLATION AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SITE IN GRAY MAINE IS IN PROGRESS. DURING THE INSTALLATION AND FOLLOW UP TESTING OF THIS NEW EQUIPMENT... RADAR DATA WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE. THIS COULD TAKE UP TO TEN DAYS TO COMPLETE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... |
| #530099 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:29 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 820 AM EDT Sun Jul 29 2012 ...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible later today... .NEAR TERM...[Thru This Aftn]... The large scale persistent longwave blocking pattern is marked by upper ridge centered over Srn Plains with high over TX Panhandle. This ridge is anchored by mean troughs over W Coast and Ern States. Another ridge was centered over Cntrl Atlc Ocean. Satellite water vapor shows several vigorous shortwaves riding down ridge into Ern trough. The lead shortwave was crossing mid-Atlc states with upstream shortwave developing near Iowa. All this continues to place local area in weakness between ridges to our west and east and trough just our north allowing a plume of deep layer moisture to advect NEWD across the NE Gulf. At surface main features are a front from low over New England SWWD into Srn Appalachians and west to ArkLaTex region. North of front, high pressure was centered over Great lakes. A pre-frontal trough extended from front along the Piedmont SWWD into GA. Looking south, subtropical ridge from Wrn Atlc WSW across Bahamas and S FL then across Cntrl Gulf of Mex. Morning Apalachee Bay and adjacent coastal convection has not materialized as expected and will update there to lower POPs and tweak up temps. For the rest of today, there is good agreement among the GFS MOS and Convection Allowing Model (CAM) that numerous showers and tstms will affect our forecast area, especially this afternoon and early evening. the presence of the surface trough aided by lingering shortwave energy and outflow boundaries will favor an active day especially north of I-10 closest to this energy. HI RES guidance shows convection initiating along Gulf sea breeze and along frontal trough with coverage increasing (filling in) as seabreeze advances inland and trough inches swd with assocd outflows generating cell mergers. The CAM consensus forecasts peak SBCAPE values near 3000 J/kg over much of the region this afternoon, which is very unstable (even for our area, this time of year). Several models also predict at least some drying in the mid troposphere. The combination of high CAPE and boundary layer moisture, steep low layer lapse rates (aided by diabatic warming), and drier air aloft, could help contribute to isolated wet microbursts today. Model sounding show light WLY steering flow and some of the CAM NWP forecast strong updraft speeds as well, further bolstering the potential for at least a few strong to marginally severe storms with isolated winds gusts (58 MPH) and hail (quarter size) will be the main threats. However cant discount frequent cloud to ground lightning and brief heavy downpours with localized flooding. Likely POPs with enhanced wording the grids still looks good. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...None. FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #530097 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:11 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 659 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .UPDATE... WITH SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...DECIDED TO SEND OUT AN UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE THAT HAS 20% POPS NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ UPDATE... 12Z TAF UPDATE BELOW. AVIATION... SCT CIRRUS SHIELD STILL OVER REGION FROM REMNANT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT CHAMBERS COUNTY CONVECTION. GULF SURFACE HIGH AND LARGE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGING MAKING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY SKC TO FEW050. A WEAK SW`ERLY LAND BREEZE WILL LINGER ON THROUGH MID-DAY ..BACKING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SUNSET. GENERAL AVIATION COMMUNITY CAN EXPECT VERY SHORT-LIVED RURAL MVFR BR AT KCXO THRU 14Z...AN HOUR OF IFR/MVFR BR OVER KLBX PER A CLEAR SKY AND CALM WIND...BEFORE AREAWIDE VFR. 31 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF WARM LATE JULY TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN. FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE INDICATED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NUMBERS SEEN ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS - HIGHS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES WELL INLAND AND IN THE LOWER/MID 90S NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST...LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WELL INLAND AND IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT A 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE WHICH IS STILL UNDER HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING HOURS AIDED BY WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER RIDGE. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES AND THE FACT THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...WILL CARRY POPS NO HIGHER THAN 10% AND ALLOW FOR FUTURE UPDATES IF/WHEN IT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE CLEAR WHEN/WHERE POSSIBLE STORMS MIGHT DEVELOP. 42 MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND RESPONDING SEA HEIGHTS LOW. THE ABSENCE OF ANY DISCERNIBLE PRESSURE GRADIENT MEANS THAT OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL TAKE A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT (LAND BREEZE) WHILE TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE TRAVELS FURTHER INLAND. 31 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 100 77 100 77 99 / 10 10 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 97 77 97 77 96 / 10 10 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 92 82 92 82 92 / 20 20 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530096 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:11 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 704 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...SURFACE LOW INLAND OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH THE GULF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH COULD PROVIDE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS BORDER WITH A WEAK TROUGH WITHIN THE FLOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. ALL DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS FURTHER WEST ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE AZ AND NM BORDER. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS DEVELOPS TODAY SHIFTING 850 MB FLOW FROM THE EAST. GULF MOISTURE SURGE INLAND AND A FEW DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE ALOFT WILL TRIGGER SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT 20 PERCENT POPS AT THIS TIME FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY. LATEST MODEL RUN SHOW EVEN LESS POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL BETWEEN THE 100 TO 105 ACROSS THE CWA AND LOWS WILL BE IN MID TO HIGH 70S. MONDAY...DRY PATTERN RETURNS AS RIDGE DOMINATES OVER THE REGION. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE 00Z ECMWF PROGGING A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. MARINE... TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS UP TO 3 FEET WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTLINE AS SEA BREEZE INITIATES IN THE AFTERNOON. NO SCA OR SCEC EXPECTED AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO BREEZE TODAY. WINDS DECOUPLE LATE IN THE EVENING WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. SEAS WILL REMAIN UP TO 2 FEET FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE COASTAL WATERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 95 81 95 80 / 10 10 0 0 BROWNSVILLE 98 79 96 78 / 20 10 0 10 HARLINGEN 99 78 98 77 / 20 10 0 0 MCALLEN 100 79 100 77 / 20 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 101 81 102 78 / 10 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 93 81 91 82 / 10 10 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530095 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:09 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 730 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO NEW ENGLAND. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEK...WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 730 AM UPDATE... A CLUSTER OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY HAS OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NH AND FAR NORTHERN MA...BUT THE REST OF THE REGION WAS DRY. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THERE IS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY...AND MAINLY CHANCE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP A LOT OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD HOLD HIGHS BETWEEN 70 AND 75 IN MOST LOCALES. ITS EVEN POSSIBLE A FEW LOCATIONS ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGH TERRAIN DO NOT REACH 70. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... TONIGHT...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE. POPS DIMINISH TO NIL AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS... ALONG WITH THE RAINFALL FROM SATURDAY AND WHATEVER FALLS TODAY... WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODEL DIAGNOSIS... ANOMALOUS H5 RIDGING /POS HEIGHT ANOMALIES/ OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT AND THE DAVIS STRAIGHT SETS THE PRECEDENT FOR CONTINUED TROUGHING /NEG HEIGHT ANOMALIES/ ACROSS THE NERN CONUS. DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NRN CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY TRAPPED BY A MARKED OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN LATITUDES. WITH HEIGHT RISES OVER THE DAVIS STRAIGHT...SUBSEQUENT RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC LENDING TO TROUGHING AND AN ACTIVE WX PATTERN OVER THE NERN CONUS. EVALUATING DETERMINISTIC SOLNS...WHILE MID-UPR LVL PATTERNS ARE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR PER 28/12Z GFS AND 28/0Z ECMWF...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE TO THE ECMWF SOLN WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND SLIGHT MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE WITHIN THE GFS SOLN. NOT ABSOLUTELY SURE THE 28/12Z CANADIAN INITIALIZED WELL. WHILE THE GENERAL MID-UPR LVL PATTERNS AGREE WITH OTHER DETERMINISTIC SOLN OUTCOMES...IT REMAINS THE WEAKER OF THE THREE WITH LESSER PRECIP AMNTS. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... DEPARTING SHRTWV VORT MAX THRU THE BROADER TROF LENDS TO WEAK RIDGING AND SFC ANTICYCLONIC FLOW /WEAK HIGH PRES/ ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. CONSIDERING PREVAILING S/SELY SFC FLOW AND A CONTINUED BROAD TROF WITH CYCLONIC MOTIONS THRU THE MID-UPR LVLS...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. NOT THINKING SEVERE BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS PSBL ESPECIALLY FOR WRN AREAS WHICH WILL HAVE SEEN PRECEDING RAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE SELY ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MARITIME BOUNDARY LYR REGIME ACROSS ERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND THEREBY LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. OVRNGT PDS WILL BE QUIET...PSBLY PATCHY FOG /ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS/ WITH SFC DWPTS RANGING AROUND THE MID 60S. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... A PAIR OF DISTURBANCES WILL INVIGORATE A DEEPENING H5 TROF ACROSS THE RGN WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NEWD AND OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH A WEAK SFC COLD FRNT SLIDING SEWD OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY RGN OF CANADA. LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL SPECIFICS OF WHICH ARE UNCERTAIN. INITIAL ACTIVITY WED MAY PERTAIN TO THE WRN INTERIOR OF THE NERN CONUS...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD OVRNGT INTO THURS. ITS QUITE PSBL S/SELY FLOW AHEAD WILL ACT AS A DETERRENT...FORCING STABLE MARITIME AIR ONSHORE AND KEEPING ACTIVITY AT BAY. REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE...IT IS PERHAPS WITH THE LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND THAT THE BETTER SUB- TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS AND OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. FRIDAY... A SYNOPTIC SITUATION SIMILAR TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY /ALBEIT SHORT/. THOUGH WEAK HIGH PRES IN WAKE OF THE MID-WEEK SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE BROAD TROUGHING AND CYCLONIC FLOW PROVIDE FAVORABLE LIFT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY. BETTER CHCS WILL BE ACROSS THE WRN INTERIOR OF NEW ENGLAND WITH ONSHORE S/SELY FLOW ADVECTING A MORE STABLE MARITIME AIRMASS THEREBY LIMITING CONVECTIVE CHCS. NEXT WEEKEND... A SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRNT IS PSBL FOR SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE LIKELY...AND PER THE 28/0Z ECMWF PSBLY SEVERE. WILL ONLY SPECULATE FOR NOW...LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FCST. THE SYSTEM APPEARS PROGRESSIVE AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF STRONG SHRTWV ENERGY DIGGING SWD OUT OF THE QUASI- STATIONARY LOW OVER THE NRN MARITIMES. DRIER CONDITIONS WOULD FOLLOW BRIEFLY FOR SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ON THE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES WILL AGAIN EXPAND INLAND FROM THE COAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OCCURS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING THRU TODAY...THEN IFR AGAIN TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPS THRU THE DAY TODAY. THEN MVFR/IFR RE-DEVELOPS TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SCTD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED...MAINLY IN PROXIMITY AND W OF A N-S LINE OF KORH. WITH ANY WX...TEMPO MVFR-IFR PSBL. S/SELY FLOW PREVAILING. FOG PSBL ALONG THE SE SHORELINE TERMINALS. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE WED INTO THURS. WITH ANY WX... TEMPO MVFR-IFR PSBL. SLY FLOW PREVAILING. FOG PSBL ALONG THE SE SHORELINE TERMINALS. && .MARINE... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH TONIGHT. MOIST AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S AND SE WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG |
| #530093 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:09 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 746 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...THEN PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH A SFC LOW LINGERING JUST OFFSHORE AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING OUT SOUTH OF THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TODAY...WITH A VORT MAX EXPECTED TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA. RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING ALREADY SHOWING SHOWER AND TSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER THOUGH...LATEST MESO MODELS NOT GRASPING THIS DEVELOPMENT TOO WELL...PLACING MORE TO THE SOUTH. SO WILL TOP POPS AT HIGHER END CHC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND OCCURRING. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS MOIST AS THE PREVIOUS DAY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK FLOW STILL REMAINS IN PLACE AS WELL..SO IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. NOT EXPECTING STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS TODAY WITH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES GREATLY DIMINISHED IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY WITH THE LOW LINGERING TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS FLOW...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THEN ANY PRECIP FORMATION...SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MAV AND MET HAD FAIRLY SIMILAR VALUES...SO JUST WENT WITH A BLEND FOR THE HIGHS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS EVENING...THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AND DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYING AT ALL LEVELS...SO COULD EVEN SEE PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MON AFTERNOON. WITH WARM AIR BEING ADVECTED IN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE SE...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO THE MID TEENS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARMER...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR HIGHS MON. USED A BLEND MAV/MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THIS PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE QUIET WEATHER IS SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH WEAKENS BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. BEGAN GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE. THE MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR THIS...SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR NOW UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE OF TIMING OF THE PRECIP. THE VORT MAX LOOKS TO PASS MORE TO THE WEST AND NORTH...SO KEPT POPS HIGHER IN THAT VICINITY. A STRONGER...MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS TO CHC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FORCING BEING PRODUCE BY THIS SHORTWAVE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS PATTERN OF SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ALL THE PASSAGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUES...BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE SW. THIS FLOW WILL INJECT IN VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR...RESULTING IN INCREASING TEMPS DURING THE WEEK. IN ADDITION...WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY SHOWER/TSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING...THOUGH THE MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT THE BEST CHC FOR ANYTHING TO FORM LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SCAPE VALUES REACHING UP TO BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... PATCHY IFR LIFTED TO MVFR...AND MVFR LIFTED TO VFR. CONDS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 4 KFT IN/AROUND KNYC TERMINALS AND MVFR WITH CIGS AROUND 2500 FT ELSEWHERE. WAVE OF SHOWERS MOVING TOWARDS KSWF DISSIPATED BEFORE MAKING IT THERE...AND THAT WAVE CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AIRSPACE. REMOVED MENTION OF TSTMS FROM THE TAFS THIS MORNING. AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON...A STRONGER WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP LATER ON. WILL TEMPO TSTMS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE EVENING AND WINDS BECOME L/V. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING TERMINALS. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MONDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .MONDAY...SUB-VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR. .TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALY VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL SUB- VFR POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. .THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS...WHILE SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 3 FT AND LESS THAN 1 FT ON THE REST OF THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY BUILD TO OVER 5 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE OVERALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR. THIS COULD CREATE MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND IN URBAN AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS IMPACTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SEARS |
| #530094 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:09 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 723 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...THEN PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH A SFC LOW LINGERING JUST OFFSHORE AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING OUT SOUTH OF THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TODAY...WITH A VORT MAX EXPECTED TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA. RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING ALREADY SHOWING SHOWER AND TSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER THOUGH...LATEST MESO MODELS NOT GRASPING THIS DEVELOPMENT TOO WELL...PLACING MORE TO THE SOUTH. SO WILL TOP POPS AT HIGHER END CHC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND OCCURRING. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS MOIST AS THE PREVIOUS DAY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK FLOW STILL REMAINS IN PLACE AS WELL..SO IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. NOT EXPECTING STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS TODAY WITH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES GREATLY DIMINISHED IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY WITH THE LOW LINGERING TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS FLOW...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THEN ANY PRECIP FORMATION...SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MAV AND MET HAD FAIRLY SIMILAR VALUES...SO JUST WENT WITH A BLEND FOR THE HIGHS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS EVENING...THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AND DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYING AT ALL LEVELS...SO COULD EVEN SEE PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MON AFTERNOON. WITH WARM AIR BEING ADVECTED IN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE SE...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO THE MID TEENS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARMER...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR HIGHS MON. USED A BLEND MAV/MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THIS PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE QUIET WEATHER IS SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH WEAKENS BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. BEGAN GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE. THE MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR THIS...SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR NOW UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE OF TIMING OF THE PRECIP. THE VORT MAX LOOKS TO PASS MORE TO THE WEST AND NORTH...SO KEPT POPS HIGHER IN THAT VICINITY. A STRONGER...MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS TO CHC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FORCING BEING PRODUCE BY THIS SHORTWAVE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS PATTERN OF SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ALL THE PASSAGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUES...BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE SW. THIS FLOW WILL INJECT IN VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR...RESULTING IN INCREASING TEMPS DURING THE WEEK. IN ADDITION...WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY SHOWER/TSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING...THOUGH THE MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT THE BEST CHC FOR ANYTHING TO FORM LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SCAPE VALUES REACHING UP TO BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... PATCHY IFR/MVFR CONDS ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...BUT WILL STILL HAVE ON AND OFF VFR/MVFR CONDS THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN GENERALLY VFR CONDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON... ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP LATER ON. WILL TEMPO TSTMS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE EVENING AND WINDS BECOME L/V. SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK FOR 09Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .MONDAY...VFR. .TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALY VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL SUB- VFR POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. .THURSDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS...WHILE SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 3 FT AND LESS THAN 1 FT ON THE REST OF THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY BUILD TO OVER 5 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE OVERALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR. THIS COULD CREATE MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND IN URBAN AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS IMPACTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SEARS |
| #530092 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:09 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 615 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR 12Z TAFS. && .AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVG W ACROSS THE REGION COULD BRING ISOLATED SHRA`S OR TSRA`S TODAY...BUT MUCH OF S TX WILL REMAIN DRY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER BY TONIGHT THEREFORE AM EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS N TX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE/INVERTED TROF SEEN OVR THE WESTERN GULF VIA WATER VAPOR SATELLITE...WILL MOVE ACROSS DEEP S TX TODAY. IN ADDITION...A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVG SW ALONG THE TX COAST EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE. MODELS PROG PRECIP ACROSS E TX TODAY...QUESTION IS HOW FAR SW WILL THE PRECIP GO? MODELS SHOW THE PRECIP DISSIPATING AS IT NEARS THE NE CWA. BOTH WEAKNESSES WILL BRING SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE INTO S TX WHICH COULD BRING SOME PRECIP INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CONFLUENT/SUBSIDENT WHICH WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT. EVEN WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE...PWAT`S ARE PROGD TO REMAIN BELOW 2 INCHES WITH AN AVE OF 1.5 INCHES PROGD ACROSS A MAJORITY OF S TX. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY THEREFORE KEPT POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BUT DID KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLD SHRA`S/TSRA`S IN THE FCST. KEPT THE TREND OF SHRA`S/TSRA`S DVLPING THIS MORNING OVER THE GULF AND MOVG INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE. THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER S TX IN THE WAKE OF THE E WAVE WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIP EXPECTED ON MON. DID KEEP THE SILENT 5-10 POPS FOR ANY ROGUE SHRA OR TSRA THAT COULD DVLP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT ISNT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE ZONES AT THIS TIME. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE ON TEMPS/DEWPOINTS. HEAT INDICES COULD BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 105-109 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. MARINE...A WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS REMAINING AT OR BELOW 3 FT. ISOLD SHRA`S/TSRA`S ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE MARINE AND COASTAL AREAS... AND INLAND ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS/ZONES. NEAR PERSISTENT HIGH TEMPS. LOWS NEAR PERSISTENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MAYBE SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS THURSDAY MORNING AND BEYOND AS WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE SLIGHTLY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 95 77 97 76 97 / 10 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 95 75 97 75 96 / 10 10 10 10 10 LAREDO 101 79 103 78 103 / 10 10 10 10 10 ALICE 99 75 101 75 100 / 10 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 94 82 93 79 91 / 10 10 10 10 10 COTULLA 101 75 101 75 102 / 10 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 98 76 99 75 98 / 10 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 91 81 92 79 91 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530091 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:09 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 640 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .UPDATE... 12Z TAF UPDATE BELOW. && .AVIATION... SCT CIRRUS SHIELD STILL OVER REGION FROM REMNANT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT CHAMBERS COUNTY CONVECTION. GULF SURFACE HIGH AND LARGE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGING MAKING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY SKC TO FEW050. A WEAK SW`ERLY LAND BREEZE WILL LINGER ON THROUGH MID-DAY ...BACKING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SUNSET. GENERAL AVIATION COMMUNITY CAN EXPECT VERY SHORT-LIVED RURAL MVFR BR AT KCXO THRU 14Z...AN HOUR OF IFR/MVFR BR OVER KLBX PER A CLEAR SKY AND CALM WIND...BEFORE AREAWIDE VFR. 31 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF WARM LATE JULY TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN. FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE INDICATED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NUMBERS SEEN ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS - HIGHS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES WELL INLAND AND IN THE LOWER/MID 90S NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST...LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WELL INLAND AND IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT A 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE WHICH IS STILL UNDER HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING HOURS AIDED BY WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER RIDGE. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES AND THE FACT THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...WILL CARRY POPS NO HIGHER THAN 10% AND ALLOW FOR FUTURE UPDATES IF/WHEN IT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE CLEAR WHEN/WHERE POSSIBLE STORMS MIGHT DEVELOP. 42 MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND RESPONDING SEA HEIGHTS LOW. THE ABSENCE OF ANY DISCERNIBLE PRESSURE GRADIENT MEANS THAT OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL TAKE A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT (LAND BREEZE) WHILE TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE TRAVELS FURTHER INLAND. 31 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 100 77 100 77 99 / 10 10 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 97 77 97 77 96 / 10 10 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 92 82 92 82 92 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530090 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:08 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 623 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER PATCHY BR IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING AND ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING IN BR AND LOWER VIS AND CEILINGS MAY OCCUR IN AND NEAR ANY STORM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB THIS MORNING AND BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ DISCUSSION... LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP LATER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A VERY ACTIVE JET RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE AND INTO A TROF OVER THE NE CONUS. AT THE SFC...THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MIDDLE TX COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF TO OUR WEST IS PROGGED TO BE A NEAR PERMANENT FIXTURE THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGING A BIT TOWARD THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE GENERALLY IN CONTROL...AND THE SFC HIGH EXPECTED TO ALSO REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR SOUTH...NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. FOR TODAY...THE SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR INLAND WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE SURFACE OPPOSING NORTHWARD PROPAGATION...AND SHOULD LIE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES/PARISHES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH A SLUG OF RELATIVELY HIGHER MOISTURE STILL PROGGED TO HANG NEAR THE COAST...AND REMNANT BOUNDARIES/VORTICIES LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...WILL HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-10. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND/OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE A RISK WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. THE BIGGER STORY TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE HEAT...AS THE WARMEST H925/H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FCST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WILL YIELD APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...GENERALLY WHERE THE THERE IS GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR HEAT INDICES TO REACH OR EXCEED THE 108 DEGREE LOCAL CRITERIA...AND REMAIN THERE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY WILL REQUIRE EXPANDING BEFORE THE DAY IS THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP OFF A BIT EACH DAY AFTER TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WEAKENS...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY HOT WITH READINGS IN THE 90S. KEPT A RAIN-FREE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SMALL CHANCES EDGING BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY MIDWEEK. 13 MARINE... LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 94 75 93 75 92 / 20 10 10 10 10 KBPT 94 75 93 75 92 / 20 10 10 10 10 KAEX 99 74 98 75 97 / 10 10 10 10 10 KLFT 94 76 93 76 93 / 20 10 10 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ALLEN...AVOYELLES...EVANGELINE...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530089 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:08 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 748 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ANOTHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TROUGHING IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS AND A STALLED FRONT AT THE SURFACE TO OUR NW. WE THINK AT LEAST A 2C CAP WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RAIN FREE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR MOST OF OUR REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AT DAYBREAK...BUT THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO EXCITE DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF OUR REGION LATER TODAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THE MID AFTERNOON START MAY BE IN PARTS OF SE GEORGIA CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA WHERE MODELS SHOW HIGHER PWATS NOSING INTO COASTAL AREAS TO THE S OF SAVANNAH. A FEW MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAKER CAP IN THIS AREA MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION TO GO WITH AN EARLIER INITIATION. THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA SEA BREEZE CORRIDOR AND ACROSS PARTS OF SE GEORGIA CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE OVER FAR S GEORGIA. STEERING FLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION IS TOWARD THE COAST ONCE AGAIN...THUS BEACHES AND INTRACOASTAL AREAS STAND BETTER THAN CLIMO DAYTIME POPS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. THE DIFFERENCE TODAY COULD WELL BE THAT INLAND AREAS W OF YESTERDAY/S CONVECTION STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING IN ON MORE CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE A BIT LATER WITH CHANCES OF SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE GIVEN AN ENVIRONMENT ACROSS OUR WESTERN FRINGES THAT FEATURE HIGHER DCAPES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING FAIRLY SWIFTING SE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. DEEP CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES AND INTENSE DOWNPOURS IN BOTH PULSE AND MULTICELL MODES. PRIOR TO THE STORMS TODAY...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S ONCE AGAIN WITH HOT AND HUMID WEATHER TYPICAL FOR LATE JULY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING OVER INLAND ZONES AS THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NW AND INTERACTS WITH AIR MASSES UNTAPPED FROM THE NEARER-COASTAL CONVECTION FROM MID AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD ALSO BE WELL INLAND NEARING DUSK AND THIS COULD BOOST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WITH AN INFUSION OF POOLED SURFACE DEW POINTS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL PROBABLY KEEP SCATTERED CONVECTION ROLLING... AT LEAST IN POCKETS...INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS IT PASSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WE MAINTAINED PERSISTENCE WITH 20-40 POPS THIS PERIOD. LOWS IN THE 70S. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIGHTS UP INLAND CLOSER TO THE INLAND TROUGH. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES... EXPECT CONVECTION COVERAGE TO INCREASE AS CELLS AND BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON MAKING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO COMMAND ATTENTION ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL SWING IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH BEGINNING TO WEAKEN A BIT ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD. THIS WILL CREATE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY LIMITING CONVECTION A BIT. STILL...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE PROPAGATES INLAND. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR IS EXPECTED UNTIL CONVECTION ERUPTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE MAINTAINED 18Z FOR VCTS INITIATION WITH TEMPO TIMES JUST A BIT LATER SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE OVERNIGHT WHEN SOME CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXIST WITH FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR EXCEPT FOR SHORT-LIVED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN SOME COASTAL AREAS...CONVECTION MAY POSE A THREAT FOR DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS. TSTMS FORECAST TO HAVE A SLOW GENERAL SEAWARD STEERING REGIME AGAIN TODAY. OTHER THAN TSTM HAZARDS...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THROUGH TONIGHT. SW FLOW 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS COULD REACH UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH NOCTURNAL SURGING. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #530087 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:26 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 719 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SRLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AROUND THE APF SITE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS. OTHERWISE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS TODAY. 85/AG && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012/ DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH NAM ANALYSIS SHOWED A TUTT LOW OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS...WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TEXAS...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS...WITH ANOTHER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STRETCHING TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR THE LAKE...AND A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. SO FOR TODAY...LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...ESPECIALLY EAST...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE (SUBSIDENCE) AND DRY AIR FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. PWATS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO MOSTLY DRY FOR TODAY...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SO MAINLY DRY AND HAZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE METRO AREAS AND THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 100-105F...HIGHEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AREA OF MOISTURE MOVING WESTWARD AROUND THE BASE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE DUST IS ALSO EXPECTED TO START CLEARING SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG EAST COAST METRO AREAS OVERNIGHT...FOR FORT LAUDERDALE SOUTHWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT WILL MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST TOWARDS WESTERN CUBA ON MONDAY...WITH LESS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. SO WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY. THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR FOR TUESDAY...EXCEPT THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MORE TYPICAL ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS PWATS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...WITH SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY MOSTLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTERWARDS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. PWATS AOA 2 INCHES WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EXTENDED...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AOA NORMAL. AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SRLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AROUND THE APF SITE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS. OTHERWISE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS TODAY. MARINE... WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS IN ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FIRE WEATHER... NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 90 77 90 77 / 10 10 20 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 90 78 90 78 / 10 20 20 10 MIAMI 91 78 90 78 / 10 20 20 10 NAPLES 90 77 91 76 / 10 10 20 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530086 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:05 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 656 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY THEN MOVE EAST TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY AND TEMPERATURES. SKY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH MATCHES UP WELL W/THE LATEST IR SATL AND CANADIAN GEM. SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS THIS MORNING W/A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OVER THE DOWNEAST. LATEST FORECAST APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THIS OK AND PERCENTAGES WERE TWEAKED TO MATCH THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE RAFL POTENTIAL AND PLACEMENT. THE BULK OF THE ACTION TODAY WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z NAM AND GFS WHICH INITIALIZED WELL PER THE RADAR AND IR SATL IMAGERY. THE 00Z ECMWF MATCHED UP WELL PER THE 06Z ANALYSIS AND WAS DOING WELL W/ITS CONTINUITY. THEREFORE, A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF WAS USED FOR THE PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHICH PUTS 70-80% ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND THE COAST AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INCLUDING THE CARIBOU PRESQUE ISLE REGION. THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF MAINE SUCH AND THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND NW MAINE WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE. MDL SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT POSSIBLE TSTMS W/LIS DROPPING TO -3 AND SBCAPES FCST TO HIT 500+ JOULES ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS UP THROUGH 700MBS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IN ANY TSTMS. BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS. A BLEND OF HPC/GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED SHOWING UP TO US TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST W/READINGS HITTING THE UPPER 70S. RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS LOW PRES AND UPPER TROF PULL TO THE EAST AND FORCING WEAKENS. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE GEM/GMOS AND NAM ON THE SKY CONDITIONS WHICH SHOW A PARTIAL CLEARING TREND LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE JULY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT MAINLY DRY ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN IT SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...EXCEPT IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST. LOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS WEAK WAVES OF CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCES FOR MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS OR PATCHY NIGHTTIME FOG. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE AVERAGE OF 10 KTS THROUGH THE TERM. A BRIEF PERIOD OF 10-15 KTS WILL BE SEEN EARLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRES PASSES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE GULF OF MAINE. A SE SWELL OF 2-4 FT WILL BE SEEN THROUGH TONIGHT. FOG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR NAVIGATIONAL PURPOSES AS VSBY WILL BE LOWERED AT TIMES TO LESS THAN 1 NM AS SUCH IS THE CASE THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS MAINLY BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT |
| #530085 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:57 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 650 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS OVERHEAD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6 AM SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ORGANIZED AND BLOSSOMED OFFSHORE AND EXPECT AT LEAST SOME MODEST SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION UNTIL AT LEAST LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING OUT ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. ANOTHER RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW AND W LATE DAY AND TONIGHT. ONE WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD THEN RETREAT WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WASHING OUT TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING CONSIDERABLE DRYING DEVELOPING IN THE MID LEVELS. DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND INSTABILITY TO RISE WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG TODAY. DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 1500 J/KG...INDICATING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGEST OF STORMS INTO THIS EVE...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF MID-LEVEL DRYING. THE RISK FOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OR REDEVELOP AFTER DARK WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE W. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD MAKE DECENT INLAND PROGRESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE GIVEN THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT AS WELL AS ALONG THE RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL CARRY MID CHANCE TO AS HIGH AS LOW LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO COOL SLIGHTLY AND THAT COUPLED WITH DEVELOPING CLOUDS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS GENERALLY A DEG OR TWO LOWER THAN ON SAT. THIS PUTS FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST TO LOWER TO MID 90S AS YOU PROGRESS INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH A FEW RAIN COOLED LOCATIONS PERHAPS BRIEFLY FALLING TO THE LOWER 70S BEFORE RECOVERING SLIGHTLY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE MID LEVELS THE TROUGH WILL BE QUITE WEAK THIS FAR SOUTH AS THE MAIN VORT CUTS JUST SOUTH OF THE NATION`S CAPITAL. ADDITIONALLY THE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO JUST OFFSHORE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND JUST SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. THE GFS HAS ANOTHER VORT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND COULD CONCEIVABLY NECESSITATE A BUMP IN POPS AWAY FROM JUST THE COAST AS MENTIONED EARLIER. LIKE THE WRF THOUGH THE GFS AGREES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE CHANNEL. TUESDAY MAY TURN A BIT MORE ACTIVE. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRENGTHENING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE WRF MORESO IN DEGREE. ASSUMING THAT WHAT COMES TO PASS WILL SHOW RAIN CHANCES/TSTM COVERAGE RISE HIGHER INTO CHANCE RANGE. TEMPS MONDAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL AND A FEW DEGREES LOWER DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH AMPLIFYING IT AT TIMES. AS ONE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUES THE MAIN TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN A BIT THROUGH MID WEEK. THE W-SW FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE NW AS TROUGH AXIS SLIPS OFF THE COAST WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO MAKE IT INTO AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND EXPECT MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE MAIN FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE MID WEEK WHICH WILL HELP KEEP SEA BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND STEER ANY SHWRS/TSTMS TOWARD THE COAST. BASICALLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER BUT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY MAINTAINING A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OVERALL. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL RETREAT BACK WEST AND DEEPEN COME LATE THURS THROUGH SAT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL PRODUCE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND GREATER CHC OF PCP ONCE AGAIN LATE THURS INTO FRI. TROUGHING ALOFT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD PUSH TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER BUT A STRONGER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND DRIER SUNNIER WEATHER MID WEEK WILL HELP WARM TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TUES AND WED. 850 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SPIKE UP WITH PEAK ON WED. CLOUDS AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER LATE THURS THROUGH SAT WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN SOME WITH TUES AND WED BEING WARMEST DAYS. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 12Z...A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR FOG OCCURRING AROUND THE CWA. LBT COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR...BUT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR. UPPER TROUGH HAS SHIFTED A BIT EAST...WITH CONVECTION OFFSHORE. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT ITSELF BACK TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A LEE SIDE TROUGH...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE. SCATTERED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH. STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 21-22Z...WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TODAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6 AM SUNDAY...THE WATERS WILL LIE BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND AN EAST COAST TROUGH THIS PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON AND EVE SEABREEZE AS IT PUSHES INLAND. SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD PEAK NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT...OTHERWISE 10 TO 15 KT SHOULD PREVAIL. THE DIRECTION WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW...ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE BACKING TO THE SSW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 FT. A WEAK 11 TO 12 SECOND SE SWELL IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE BUOYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS SWELL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE ON MONDAY BUT UP ABOUT A CATEGORY INTO TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS QUITE COAST-PARALLEL AND SO A CONSIDERABLE NEARSHORE VS OFFSHORE RANGE IN SEAS MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SINCE A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATELY STRONG SWRLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC. SCEC HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS FOR PART OF THE VALID PERIOD. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER INLAND CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH MID WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW REACHING A MORE SOLID 15 KTS AND UP TO 20 KTS AT TIMES. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT TUES WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 5 FT AT TIMES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #530084 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:56 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 650 AM EDT Sun Jul 29 2012 ...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible today... .SYNOPSIS... The 03 UTC regional surface analysis showed a rather broad ridge across South FL and much of the Gulf of Mexico, a pre-frontal trough along the Piedmont, and a cold front across north AL and GA. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a high pressure center over the TX Panhandle and a trough over the eastern CONUS. && .SHORT TERM... [Today through Tuesday] There is good agreement among the GFS MOS and Convection Allowing Model (CAM) that numerous showers and thunderstorms will affect our forecast area today, especially this afternoon and early evening. The CAM consensus forecasts peak SBCAPE values near 3000 J/kg over much of the region this afternoon, which is very unstable (even for our area, this time of year). Several models also predict at least some drying in the mid troposphere. The combination of high CAPE and boundary layer moisture, steep low layer lapse rates, and drier air aloft, could help contribute to isolated wet microbursts today. Some of the CAM NWP forecast strong updraft speeds as well, further bolstering the potential for at least a few strong to marginally severe storms. Isolated winds gusts (58 MPH) and hail (quarter size) will be the main threats. Localized flooding is also a possibility, along with frequent lightning. Our rain chances will be near to slightly above climo values through Tuesday as a mean 500 mb trough continues over the eastern CONUS. The thermodynamics will likely remain similar to what we expect today, meaning that pulse severe storms will remain possible. As our region comes under the influence of northwest winds aloft, we will begin looking well upstream for any Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) and/or subtle upper level short waves, as they can bring storms to our area from far away (even during the overnight areas). The timing, strength, and eventual track of such systems is always problematic, so we will have to evaluate this on a day-by- day basis. It`s possible that a more organized severe storm threat could emerge with one (or more) of these systems, so this weather pattern bears watching. .LONG TERM... [Wednesday through next Sunday] Mean position of an upper level anticyclone in the first half of the extended will be over the southern Plains, which would put the Southeast US in a deep N-NW flow aloft. The concerns that have been advertised the last few nights about MCS activity propagating into the area from the northwest during the Wednesday to Friday timeframe still appear valid. Underneath the core of the hot dome of high pressure in the Southern Plains, low-level flow looks to largely be S-SW. This may intersect a quasi-stationary front draped NW-SE that would roughly follow the northeastern extent of the more prominent EML plume over the Plains. To the northeast of the front, the models project pool of higher low-level (0-2km) thetae extending from roughly the Missouri River Valley, to western Tennessee, and on S-SE into our forecast area. This also coincides with southern periphery of the stronger mid-level NW flow (20-25kt at 500mb). From a pattern recognition standpoint, such a setup is typically favorable for mesoscale convective systems to form near the nose of the LLJ and steeper mid-level lapse rates and then push southeast in the region of greatest potential instability, with an attendant threat of gusty winds. Numerical models, particularly beyond about 36-48 hours, tend to struggle with the timing and location of such MCS. Given the uncertainties outlined above, PoPs were kept more even between all hours of the day than what would be typically expected in the summer months around here. We went with about 30% during the overnight and about 40-50% during the daytime hours. The remainder of the forecast elements closely followed HPC guidance, with temperatures near climatological normals. For next weekend, the ridge appears to expand back to the east, leaving us in lighter flow overall, and sea-breeze activity should begin to dominate the daily fluctuations in convection again. && .AVIATION... [Through 12z Monday; updated 6:50am EDT] Some patchy BR and low CIGS this morning - mainly low clouds. A few of the terminals have recently reported CIGS below 1000 feet. This is likely to lift or dissipate by about 13z. The latest thinking continues to be that there should be a fairly high coverage of thunderstorms around the area tomorrow, which may impact usual routes in addition to terminals. Expecting MVFR in the stronger storms. We have added 25-30 knot gusts to the afternoon TEMPO groups for storms at all of the terminals. We can`t rule out an isolated higher gust, but confidence is not enough to include such gusts in the TAFs for now. && .MARINE... Winds will increase a bit by this afternoon (into the 10-15 kt range), then weaken to 10 kt or less late tonight. A similar cycle is epxected for Monday. However, advisory conditions are unlikely. && .FIRE WEATHER... Relative humidity levels are expected to remain above critical thresholds for the next several days, so red flag conditions are unlikely. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 91 74 91 73 93 / 70 40 60 20 40 Panama City 89 76 90 77 90 / 50 30 50 20 40 Dothan 93 74 94 75 93 / 70 40 40 20 40 Albany 93 74 93 75 93 / 60 40 40 20 40 Valdosta 91 72 92 72 93 / 70 40 60 20 40 Cross City 88 73 89 72 92 / 60 30 50 30 40 Apalachicola 87 77 87 78 88 / 40 30 50 30 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...None. FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #530083 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:51 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 642 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS OVERHEAD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6 AM SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ORGANIZED AND BLOSSOMED OFFSHORE AND EXPECT AT LEAST SOME MODEST SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION UNTIL AT LEAST LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING OUT ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. ANOTHER RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW AND W LATE DAY AND TONIGHT. ONE WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD THEN RETREAT WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WASHING OUT TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING CONSIDERABLE DRYING DEVELOPING IN THE MID LEVELS. DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND INSTABILITY TO RISE WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG TODAY. DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 1500 J/KG...INDICATING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGEST OF STORMS INTO THIS EVE...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF MID-LEVEL DRYING. THE RISK FOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OR REDEVELOP AFTER DARK WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE W. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD MAKE DECENT INLAND PROGRESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE GIVEN THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT AS WELL AS ALONG THE RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL CARRY MID CHANCE TO AS HIGH AS LOW LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO COOL SLIGHTLY AND THAT COUPLED WITH DEVELOPING CLOUDS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS GENERALLY A DEG OR TWO LOWER THAN ON SAT. THIS PUTS FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST TO LOWER TO MID 90S AS YOU PROGRESS INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH A FEW RAIN COOLED LOCATIONS PERHAPS BRIEFLY FALLING TO THE LOWER 70S BEFORE RECOVERING SLIGHTLY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE MID LEVELS THE TROUGH WILL BE QUITE WEAK THIS FAR SOUTH AS THE MAIN VORT CUTS JUST SOUTH OF THE NATION`S CAPITAL. ADDITIONALLY THE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO JUST OFFSHORE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND JUST SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. THE GFS HAS ANOTHER VORT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND COULD CONCEIVABLY NECESSITATE A BUMP IN POPS AWAY FROM JUST THE COAST AS MENTIONED EARLIER. LIKE THE WRF THOUGH THE GFS AGREES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE CHANNEL. TUESDAY MAY TURN A BIT MORE ACTIVE. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRENGTHENING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE WRF MORESO IN DEGREE. ASSUMING THAT WHAT COMES TO PASS WILL SHOW RAIN CHANCES/TSTM COVERAGE RISE HIGHER INTO CHANCE RANGE. TEMPS MONDAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL AND A FEW DEGREES LOWER DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH AMPLIFYING IT AT TIMES. AS ONE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUES THE MAIN TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN A BIT THROUGH MID WEEK. THE W-SW FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE NW AS TROUGH AXIS SLIPS OFF THE COAST WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO MAKE IT INTO AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND EXPECT MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE MAIN FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE MID WEEK WHICH WILL HELP KEEP SEA BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND STEER ANY SHWRS/TSTMS TOWARD THE COAST. BASICALLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER BUT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY MAINTAINING A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OVERALL. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL RETREAT BACK WEST AND DEEPEN COME LATE THURS THROUGH SAT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL PRODUCE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND GREATER CHC OF PCP ONCE AGAIN LATE THURS INTO FRI. TROUGHING ALOFT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD PUSH TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER BUT A STRONGER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND DRIER SUNNIER WEATHER MID WEEK WILL HELP WARM TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TUES AND WED. 850 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SPIKE UP WITH PEAK ON WED. CLOUDS AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER LATE THURS THROUGH SAT WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN SOME WITH TUES AND WED BEING WARMEST DAYS. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 06Z...WILL INCLUDE TEMPO TSRA AT KLBT AND KFLO TIL 07/08Z RESPECTIVELY. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THESE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AT ALL THE TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF INTO THE EVENING HOURS... ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 5 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6 AM SUNDAY...THE WATERS WILL LIE BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND AN EAST COAST TROUGH THIS PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON AND EVE SEABREEZE AS IT PUSHES INLAND. SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD PEAK NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT...OTHERWISE 10 TO 15 KT SHOULD PREVAIL. THE DIRECTION WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW...ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE BACKING TO THE SSW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 FT. A WEAK 11 TO 12 SECOND SE SWELL IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE BUOYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS SWELL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE ON MONDAY BUT UP ABOUT A CATEGORY INTO TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS QUITE COAST-PARALLEL AND SO A CONSIDERABLE NEARSHORE VS OFFSHORE RANGE IN SEAS MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SINCE A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATELY STRONG SWRLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC. SCEC HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS FOR PART OF THE VALID PERIOD. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER INLAND CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH MID WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW REACHING A MORE SOLID 15 KTS AND UP TO 20 KTS AT TIMES. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT TUES WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 5 FT AT TIMES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #530082 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:42 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 529 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP LATER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A VERY ACTIVE JET RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE AND INTO A TROF OVER THE NE CONUS. AT THE SFC...THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MIDDLE TX COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF TO OUR WEST IS PROGGED TO BE A NEAR PERMANENT FIXTURE THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGING A BIT TOWARD THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE GENERALLY IN CONTROL...AND THE SFC HIGH EXPECTED TO ALSO REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR SOUTH...NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. FOR TODAY...THE SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR INLAND WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE SURFACE OPPOSING NORTHWARD PROPAGATION...AND SHOULD LIE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES/PARISHES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH A SLUG OF RELATIVELY HIGHER MOISTURE STILL PROGGED TO HANG NEAR THE COAST...AND REMNANT BOUNDARIES/VORTICIES LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...WILL HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-10. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND/OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE A RISK WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. THE BIGGER STORY TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE HEAT...AS THE WARMEST H925/H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FCST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WILL YIELD APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...GENERALLY WHERE THE THERE IS GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR HEAT INDICES TO REACH OR EXCEED THE 108 DEGREE LOCAL CRITERIA...AND REMAIN THERE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY WILL REQUIRE EXPANDING BEFORE THE DAY IS THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP OFF A BIT EACH DAY AFTER TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WEAKENS...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY HOT WITH READINGS IN THE 90S. KEPT A RAIN-FREE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SMALL CHANCES EDGING BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY MIDWEEK. 13 && .MARINE... LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 96 75 94 75 / 10 10 10 10 KBPT 94 75 93 75 / 20 10 10 10 KAEX 99 74 98 75 / 10 10 10 10 KLFT 95 76 94 76 / 20 10 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALLEN-AVOYELLES- EVANGELINE-RAPIDES-ST. LANDRY. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530081 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:29 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 625 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .CURRENTLY... MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING (1020 MILLIBARS) STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ITS AXIS WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WESTWARD TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED BEHIND THIS FEATURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. ALOFT...THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS COVERED BY TROUGHING...WITH RIDGES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ORGANIZING UPSTREAM OVER THE CORN BELT. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS KEEPING DEBRIS CLOUDS IN PLACE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR...BUT DOPPLER RADAR SCANS ARE CURRENTLY DEVOID OF RAINFALL ECHOES. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE. ON THE COASTAL WATERS...A SOUTHERLY EVENING WIND SURGE AROUND 15 KNOTS WAS REPORTED AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS...AND MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE REPORTED BY THE NEARSHORE C-MANS. .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH AND SOME LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT SHOULD ACTIVATE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...LEADING TO LIKELY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AND THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...WITH LOWER CHANCES FOUND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...CLOSER TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER AIR ALOFT PERSISTING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LIGHT WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE THUS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT ACTIVITY INITIATING ALONG THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALTAMAHA BASIN LATE THIS MORNING...WITH COVERAGE MAXIMIZING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS OUTFLOWS PROGRESS TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR LATE JULY CLIMATOLOGY. ACTIVITY LOOKS TO FADE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...AND LOWS WILL ALSO FALL TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME VALUES LATE TONIGHT. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF TROUGHING SITUATED OVER GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON MONDAY. WE EXPECT A SIMILAR DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DISPLAY A STRONGER WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AND SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT...AND THUS STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SINCE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPEARS TO ARRIVE IN OUR REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...MORNING SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SEASONABLY HOT RANGE BEFORE CONVECTION INITIATES IN A SIMILAR FASHION TO WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE EXITING OUR REGION...CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT NEAR CLIMO LOWS AND HUMIDITY VALUES ON MONDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN IS PROJECTED FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND TROUGHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS AROUND THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST FLORIDA...WITH LESSER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH. WITH SOME SEABREEZE INTERACTION EACH AFTERNOON...WILL USE MID/HIGH END CHANCE POPS FROM JAX NORTH...WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NE FL. WITH MOPE TROUGHY A PATTERN...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO NUDGE DOWNWARD TOWARD NORMAL VALUES. && .AVIATION... VFR WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME PATCHES OF MVFR BR AT VQQ TIL AROUND 12Z. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR TS AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MID/LATE AFTN FOR JAX/CRG/VQQ/SSI...WITH VCTS FOR GNV. CONVECTION WILL DECREASE IN THE EVENING...WITH MAINLY CIRRUS BY MIDNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT NEAR TSTMS. && .MARINE... A RATHER STAGNANT FORECAST IS EXPECTED...FEATURING GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...HIGHLIGHTED BY EVENING SURGES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING CAUTION CRITERIA. FOR NOW...WE WILL LEAVE THE OFFSHORE ZONES BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES SPLIT OUT TO HIGHLIGHT THESE EVENING SURGES...BUT WILL CAP SPEEDS NEAR 15 KNOTS. EXPECT SEAS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL (2 FEET WITH A 12 SECOND PERIOD AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS) WILL KEEP A MODERATE RISK IN PLACE ALONG THE BEACHES...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 94 72 92 71 / 50 40 60 40 SSI 90 76 89 75 / 60 50 60 40 JAX 91 74 90 75 / 60 40 60 40 SGJ 90 75 89 74 / 50 40 50 40 GNV 92 72 90 73 / 50 40 40 30 OCF 92 72 91 72 / 40 30 40 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530080 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:20 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 615 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONT OR TROF WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST TO THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 615 AM SUNDAY...UPR TRF THAT PRODUCE THE CONVECTION LAST EVENING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE COAST TODAY. THIS WILL SHIFT AXIS OF BEST FORCING AND LIFT TO NEAR OR EAST OF THE CST THIS AFTN. THINK CVRG OF CONVECTION WILL BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY AND LOWERED POPS A BIT ESPCLY INLAND WHERE PRECIP WTR VALUES DROP TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. SHLD SEE ENOUGH SUN FOR HIGHS CPL DGRS EITHER SIDE OF 90. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY...THE UPR TRF WILL BEGIN TO SHARPEN A BIT LATE AS MORE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS COMBINED WITH AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE NEAR THE CST WILL LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION IMD CST WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY INLAND. TEMPS AGAIN WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO UPR 70S BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 215 AM SUN...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH AN UPPER TROF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...BUT NOT ON THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF EACH WAVE. AT THE SURFACE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC WITH A LEESIDE TROF OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE. THE RESULT WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL LIMIT POPS TO 50% OR LOWER. FOR LATE WEEK WILL LEAVE POPS AT SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER RANGE FCST. WITH DECREASED THICKNESS/THERMAL TROF...HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL THRU MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH DEWPTS WILL RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S...HIGHEST BEACHES WHERE WATER TEMPS NOW IN LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 615 AM SUN...SATL SHOWS AREA OF LIFR STRATUS JUST WEST OF PGV AND ISO. THESE LOW CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY MOVING/EXPANDING E SO MAY REACH INLAND SITES BRIEFLY THIS MORNING BEFORE MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE. SOME SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVENING MAINLY CLOSE TO CST WITH LCL REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS HOWEVER ONCE ANY ST BURS OFF SHLD BE MAINLY VFR. MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT WILL BE E OF TAFS WITH AGAIN SOME PATCHY FOG/ST POSS LATE. LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 215 AM SUN...UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS BY DAY...AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 615 AM SUN...OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION HAS SPREAD OVER ALL WTRS WITH LIGHT FLOW IN ITS WAKE. SEAS HAVE DROPPED TO 4 FEET OFF CAPE HAT AND WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 15 KTS SHLD REMAIN AOB 4 FEET REST OF THE DAY. SYNOPTIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SW AOB 15 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS POSS NEAR CONVECTION. MOST NEAR SHORE WTRS WILL HAVE SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT. LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 215 AM SUN...12Z/28 ECMWF AND 00Z GFS/NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER AROUND TUESDAY WITH WINDS/SEAS COMING UP TO SMALL CRAFT. ECMWF/NAM ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT KEEPING CONDITIONS BELOW SCA SO FORECAST WILL TREND IN THAT DIRECTION. DID NOT USE 00Z WAVEWATCH SINCE IT IS BASED OFF THE GFS AND USED SWAN INSTEAD...KEEPING SEAS AT OR BELOW 5 FEET. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF |
| #530079 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:00 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 550 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE ON A WEAK FRONT SITS ASTRIDE THE DELAWARE NEW JERSEY COAST TODAY. THEN FROM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS WILL DRAW THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL FRONT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND KEEP US IN A WARM HUMID SUMMER PATTERN ALL OF THIS COMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO WHEEL AWAY TOWARDS OUR NORTHEAST. THIS IS KEEPING A FEW SHOWERS GOING TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA AND AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH IT WILL DRAG THESE SHOWERS WITH IT. WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR ZONES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND ALLOW THE COLUMN TO DRY OUT GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER-80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... WE CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STILL WITH NOT MUCH GRADIENT FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE NICELY TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID-60S WITH DEWPOINTS ABOUT THE SAME. THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AS SOME OF THE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT FOR THE MOST PART NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING DENSE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 500 MB: A GENERALLY WEAK TROUGH WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK PERMITTING AN OVERALL SUMMERY HUMID PATTERN. TEMPS: NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. DEWPOINTS: ON THE LOWER SIDE OF HUMID /SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB TEMPS/ EARLY THIS WORK WEEK WILL PROBABLY BECOME FAR MORE NOTICEABLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN WE EXPRESS GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN OUR WARMING TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE DAILIES MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WERE BLENDED 00Z/29 NCEP GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS 330PM EDT SATURDAY JULY 28 KPHI FCST. CONFIDENCE ON MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS BELOW AVG. WE SAW THE SWODY3 FOR TUESDAY. ITS AN OVERALL SUMMER PATTERN... MOSTLY RAINFREE BUT WHEN IT RAINS...IT POURS. THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE RETURN SE FLOW LOW CLOUDINESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...POSSIBLY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. WITH ALL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL OFF THE COAST ALL WE HAVE LEFT TO DEAL WITH IS THE REMAINING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF OUR TAF SITES RECEIVED ENOUGH RAIN TODAY THAT A STRATUS DECK WILL FORM AND MORE THAN LIKELY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO LIKELY IN OUR MORE SHELTERED TERMINALS THIS MORNING...MVFR VSBYS. ALL OF THE MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z EVERYWHERE. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY THE OVERALL SURFACE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AT LESS THAN 8 KNOTS. INSTEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH SO OUR INTERIOR TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE A MORE NORTHERLY WIND WHILE CLOSER TO THE COAST IT SHOULD BE MORE NORTHEASTERLY...AGAIN VERY LIGHT WINDS AND VERY HARD TO DEFINE A DIRECTION. DURING THE DAY A STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL FORM AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED MAKING FOR A GOOD VFR FLYING DAY. OUTLOOK... MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CIGS IN THE AFTN BUT MVFR CONDS IN FOG/ST/SC IN THE MORNING HOURS. WED AFTERNOON-THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR. THERE IS CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 15 KT... STARTING OUT S-SELY MON/TUE TRENDING S OR SW WED AND THU. && .MARINE... SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS OUR WATERS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. COULD STILL SEE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING AND THEN OVER OUR NORTHERN WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS PRETTY RELAXED SO WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE AROUND 3 FEET. OUTLOOK... CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SE FLOW MON-TUE TRENDING S-SW WED AND THU. && .HYDROLOGY... THIS PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A COUPLE OF AFTERNOON/EVENINGS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE EXCESSIVE SHORT TERM RAINFALL. PARTS OF SUSSEX...MORRIS AND WARREN COUNTIES IN NJ HAVE GRIDDED 1HR FFG UNDER 1.1 INCHES AND ARE AT FIRST GLANCE...THE MOST VULNERABLE NON URBAN REGIONS. THE PERKIOMEN AT EAST GREENVILLE IN BUCKS COUNTY AND METEDECONK RIVER AT LAKEWOOD IN NORTHERN OCEAN COUNTY RESPONDED TO ACTION BUT BELOW FS YDY-SUNDAY. SO AS WE GRADUALLY RECOVER FROM OUR SHORT TERM RAINFALL DEFICIT...THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING INCREASES. YDYS 012Z/28 46 MEMBER NAEFS AXIS OF 2+ RAINFALL WAS MOST CONFIDENTLY STATED FOR THE DEL VALLEY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ASTRO TIDES ARE INCREASING AS WE HEAD FOR FULL MOON EARLY ON THE 2ND. SOME OF OUR GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME INDICATES WE MAY RECEIVE THE 1/2 FOOT POSITIVE DEPARTURE NECESSARY TO FORCE STATEMENTS REGARDING POSSIBLE MARGINAL MINOR AT WORST TIDAL INUNDATION FLOODING....ALONG THE ATLC COASTAL PORTIONS OF NJ AND DE. && .RIP CURRENTS... ALTHOUGH THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE, AN 11 SECOND WAVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN NJ. && .CLIMATE... RERACY AND RERTTN YDY FOR RFALL. LSRPHI 7/28: FURTHER UPDATES INCLUDING MORE REPORTS OR TIMING CORRECTIONS MAY OCCUR TODAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG 550 |
| #530077 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:35 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 531 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD IN FOR MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE...WILL TWEAK POPS A BIT TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NH. ALSO UPDATED THE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. PREV DISC...WILL START THE DAY WITH FOG AND STRATUS WHICH WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE. AN AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SCRAPE ALONG THE COAST AS THE SFC LOW TREKS NE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. AN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST THRU SRN NY STATE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF US...HOWEVER AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST AND WITH A LITTLE SFC HEATING EXPECT AFTN THUNDERSHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THEY WILL SCATTERED AND NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL GET ONE BUT DO HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... SKIE WILL CLEAR TONIGHT BUT THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP. TEMPS WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. FOR MONDAY ANY FOG WILL LIFT LEAVING A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH PTLY CLDY CONDITIONS AND WARM. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE GFS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WAVE AFTER WAVE AT 500MB PRODUCING NEARLY CONSTANT TROUGHING AT 500 MB THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH MAY BE OVERDOING THINGS A LITTLE BIT...AND HAVE THEREFORE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO 12Z EURO...WHICH IS BETTER...BUT WOULD STILL PUT US IN AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE EURO WOULD FOCUS ON 2 DECENT WAVES MOVING THROUGH...AROUND WED...AND AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST...SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND....AND HAVE FOCUSED THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS AROUND THESE 2 EVENTS. OTHERWISE...HAVE PLAYED THINGS CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR POPS...WITH SLT CHC POPS THRU THE WEEKEND...ONLY BRINGING THE MTNS UP TO CHC POPS DURING THE DAYS. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD LOOK RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AND TDS WILL RUN ON THE HUMID SIDE. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...MVFR TO IFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IN FOG AND STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE IN FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS. LONG TERM...MON NIGHT THRU THU WILL SEE PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS. SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ON WED...AND TUE NIGHT WILL BE THE BEST CHC FOR VLY FOG. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... SPECIAL NOTE: COMMUNICATIONS CIRCUIT STILL OUT AT KRKD AND KLEW. TAF FOR KRKD WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE "AMD NOT SKED" UNTIL COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS ARE RESOLVED. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE NO ESTIMATE OF WHEN A RETURN TO SERVICE IS EXPECTED. GRAY MAINE /KGYX/ RADAR DATA WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE DUAL POLARIZATION RADAR INSTALLATION AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SITE IN GRAY MAINE IS IN PROGRESS. DURING THE INSTALLATION AND FOLLOW UP TESTING OF THIS NEW EQUIPMENT... RADAR DATA WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE. THIS COULD TAKE UP TO TEN DAYS TO COMPLETE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ TFH |
| #530075 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:20 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 511 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...THEN PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH A SFC LOW LINGERING JUST OFFSHORE AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING OUT SOUTH OF THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TODAY...WITH A VORT MAX EXPECTED TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA. RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING ALREADY SHOWING SHOWER AND TSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER THOUGH...LATEST MESO MODELS NOT GRASPING THIS DEVELOPMENT TOO WELL...PLACING MORE TO THE SOUTH. SO WILL TOP POPS AT HIGHER END CHC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND OCCURRING. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS LIKELY POPS RIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ON GOING PRECIP. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS MOIST AS THE PREVIOUS DAY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK FLOW STILL REMAINS IN PLACE AS WELL..SO IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. NOT EXPECTING STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS TODAY WITH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES GREATLY DIMINISHED IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY WITH THE LOW LINGERING TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS FLOW...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THEN ANY PRECIP FORMATION...SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MAV AND MET HAD FAIRLY SIMILAR VALUES...SO JUST WENT WITH A BLEND FOR THE HIGHS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS EVENING...THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AND DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYING AT ALL LEVELS...SO COULD EVEN SEE PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MON AFTERNOON. WITH WARM AIR BEING ADVECTED IN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE SE...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO THE MID TEENS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARMER...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR HIGHS MON. USED A BLEND MAV/MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THIS PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE QUIET WEATHER IS SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH WEAKENS BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. BEGAN GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE. THE MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR THIS...SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR NOW UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE OF TIMING OF THE PRECIP. THE VORT MAX LOOKS TO PASS MORE TO THE WEST AND NORTH...SO KEPT POPS HIGHER IN THAT VICINITY. A STRONGER...MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS TO CHC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FORCING BEING PRODUCE BY THIS SHORTWAVE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS PATTERN OF SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ALL THE PASSAGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUES...BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE SW. THIS FLOW WILL INJECT IN VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR...RESULTING IN INCREASING TEMPS DURING THE WEEK. IN ADDITION...WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY SHOWER/TSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING...THOUGH THE MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT THE BEST CHC FOR ANYTHING TO FORM LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SCAPE VALUES REACHING UP TO BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... PATCHY IFR/MVFR CONDS ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...BUT WILL STILL HAVE ON AND OFF VFR/MVFR CONDS THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN GENERALLY VFR CONDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON... ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP LATER ON. WILL TEMPO TSTMS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE EVENING AND WINDS BECOME L/V. SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK FOR 09Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .MONDAY...VFR. .TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALY VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL SUB- VFR POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. .THURSDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS...WHILE SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 3 FT AND LESS THAN 1 FT ON THE REST OF THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY BUILD TO OVER 5 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE OVERALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS COULD CREATE MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND IN URBAN AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS IMPACTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SEARS |
| #530074 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 444 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY THEN MOVE EAST TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE RAFL POTENTIAL AND PLACEMENT. LATEST RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING W/ISOLATED SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. THE BULK OF THE ACTION TODAY WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z NAM AND GFS WHICH INITIALIZED WELL PER THE RADAR AND IR SATL IMAGERY. THE 00Z ECMWF MATCHED UP WELL PER THE 06Z ANALYSIS AND WAS DOING WELL W/ITS CONTINUITY. THEREFORE, A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF WAS USED FOR THE PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHICH PUTS 70-80% ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND THE COAST AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INCLUDING THE CARIBOU PRESQUE ISLE REGION. THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF MAINE SUCH AND THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND NW MAINE WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE. MDL SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT POSSIBLE TSTMS W/LIS DROPPING TO -3 AND SBCAPES FCST TO HIT 500+ JOULES ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS UP THROUGH 700MBS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IN ANY TSTMS. BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS. A BLEND OF HPC/GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED SHOWING UP TO US TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST W/READINGS HITTING THE UPPER 70S. RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS LOW PRES AND UPPER TROF PULL TO THE EAST AND FORCING WEAKENS. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE GEM/GMOS AND NAM ON THE SKY CONDITIONS WHICH SHOW A PARTIAL CLEARING TREND LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE JULY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT MAINLY DRY ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN IT SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...EXCEPT IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST. LOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS WEAK WAVES OF CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCES FOR MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS OR PATCHY NIGHTTIME FOG. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE AVERAGE OF 10 KTS THROUGH THE TERM. A BRIEF PERIOD OF 10-15 KTS WILL BE SEEN EARLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRES PASSES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE GULF OF MAINE. A SE SWELL OF 2-4 FT WILL BE SEEN THROUGH TONIGHT. FOG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR NAVIGATIONAL PURPOSES AS VSBY WILL BE LOWERED AT TIMES TO LESS THAN 1 NM AS SUCH IS THE CASE THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS MAINLY BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT |
| #530073 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 342 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS N TX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE/INVERTED TROF SEEN OVR THE WESTERN GULF VIA WATER VAPOR SATELLITE...WILL MOVE ACROSS DEEP S TX TODAY. IN ADDITION...A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVG SW ALONG THE TX COAST EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE. MODELS PROG PRECIP ACROSS E TX TODAY...QUESTION IS HOW FAR SW WILL THE PRECIP GO? MODELS SHOW THE PRECIP DISSIPATING AS IT NEARS THE NE CWA. BOTH WEAKNESSES WILL BRING SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE INTO S TX WHICH COULD BRING SOME PRECIP INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CONFLUENT/SUBSIDENT WHICH WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT. EVEN WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE...PWAT`S ARE PROGD TO REMAIN BELOW 2 INCHES WITH AN AVE OF 1.5 INCHES PROGD ACROSS A MAJORITY OF S TX. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY THEREFORE KEPT POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BUT DID KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLD SHRA`S/TSRA`S IN THE FCST. KEPT THE TREND OF SHRA`S/TSRA`S DVLPING THIS MORNING OVER THE GULF AND MOVG INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE. THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER S TX IN THE WAKE OF THE E WAVE WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIP EXPECTED ON MON. DID KEEP THE SILENT 5-10 POPS FOR ANY ROGUE SHRA OR TSRA THAT COULD DVLP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT ISNT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE ZONES AT THIS TIME. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE ON TEMPS/DEWPOINTS. HEAT INDICES COULD BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 105-109 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. .MARINE...A WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS REMAINING AT OR BELOW 3 FT. ISOLD SHRA`S/TSRA`S ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. && .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE MARINE AND COASTAL AREAS... AND INLAND ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS/ZONES. NEAR PERSISTENT HIGH TEMPS. LOWS NEAR PERSISTENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MAYBE SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS THURSDAY MORNING AND BEYOND AS WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE SLIGHTLY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 95 77 97 76 97 / 10 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 95 75 97 75 96 / 10 10 10 10 10 LAREDO 101 79 103 78 103 / 10 10 10 10 10 ALICE 99 75 101 75 100 / 10 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 94 82 93 79 91 / 10 10 10 10 10 COTULLA 101 75 101 75 102 / 10 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 98 76 99 75 98 / 10 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 91 81 92 79 91 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530072 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 342 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS BORDER WITH A WEAK TROUGH WITHIN THE FLOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. ALL DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS FURTHER WEST ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE AZ AND NM BORDER. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS DEVELOPS TODAY SHIFTING 850 MB FLOW FROM THE EAST. GULF MOISTURE SURGE INLAND AND A FEW DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE ALOFT WILL TRIGGER SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT 20 PERCENT POPS AT THIS TIME FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY. LATEST MODEL RUN SHOW EVEN LESS POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL BETWEEN THE 100 TO 105 ACROSS THE CWA AND LOWS WILL BE IN MID TO HIGH 70S. MONDAY...DRY PATTERN RETURNS AS RIDGE DOMINATES OVER THE REGION. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE 00Z ECMWF PROGGING A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. && .MARINE... TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS UP TO 3 FEET WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTLINE AS SEA BREEZE INITIATES IN THE AFTERNOON. NO SCA OR SCEC EXPECTED AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO BREEZE TODAY. WINDS DECOUPLE LATE IN THE EVENING WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. SEAS WILL REMAIN UP TO 2 FEET FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE COASTAL WATERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 95 81 95 80 / 10 10 0 0 BROWNSVILLE 98 79 96 78 / 20 10 0 10 HARLINGEN 99 78 98 77 / 20 10 0 0 MCALLEN 100 79 100 77 / 20 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 101 81 102 78 / 10 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 93 81 91 82 / 10 10 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530071 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 436 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... PRE-DAWN...WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS TO THE PEE DEE DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH OUR REGION REMAINING QUIET AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH THIS ACTIVITY WAS PASSING BY TO OUR N AND GRADUALLY DAMPENING WITH TIME. THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN GEORGIA AND ADJACENT WATERS...SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOWARD DAYBREAK. TODAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TROUGHING IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WITH A STALLED FRONT AT THE SURFACE TO OUR NW. WE THINK AT LEAST A 2C CAP WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RAIN FREE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR MOST OF OUR REGION. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN PARTS OF SE GEORGIA WHERE MODELS SHOW HIGHER PWATS NOSING INTO COASTAL AREAS TO THE S OF SAVANNAH. A FEW MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAKER CAP IN THIS AREA MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION TO GO WITH AN EARLIER START. THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA SEA BREEZE CORRIDOR AND ACROSS PARTS OF SE GEORGIA CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE OVER FAR S GEORGIA. STEERING FLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION IS TOWARD THE COAST ONCE AGAIN...THUS BEACHES AND INTRACOASTAL AREAS STAND BETTER THAN CLIMO DAYTIME POPS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. THE DIFFERENCE TODAY COULD WELL BE THAT INLAND AREAS W OF YESTERDAY/S CONVECTION STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING IN ON MORE CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE A BIT LATER WITH CHANCES OF SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE GIVEN AN ENVIRONMENT ACROSS OUR WESTERN FRINGES THAT FEATURE HIGHER DCAPES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING FAIRLY SWIFTING SE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. DEEP CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES AND INTENSE DOWNPOURS IN BOTH PULSE AND MULTICELL MODES. PRIOR TO THE STORMS TODAY...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S ONCE AGAIN WITH HOT AND HUMID WEATHER TYPICAL FOR LATE JULY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING OVER INLAND ZONES AS THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NW AND INTERACTS WITH AIR MASSES UNTAPPED FROM THE NEARER-COASTAL CONVECTION FROM MID AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD ALSO BE WELL INLAND NEARING DUSK AND THIS COULD BOOST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WITH AN INFUSION OF POOLED SURFACE DEW POINTS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL PROBABLY KEEP SCATTERED CONVECTION ROLLING... AT LEAST IN POCKETS...INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS IT PASSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WE MAINTAINED PERSISTENCE WITH 20-40 POPS THIS PERIOD. LOWS IN THE 70S. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIGHTS UP INLAND CLOSER TO THE INLAND TROUGH. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES... EXPECT CONVECTION COVERAGE TO INCREASE AS CELLS AND BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON MAKING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO COMMAND ATTENTION ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL SWING IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH BEGINNING TO WEAKEN A BIT ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD. THIS WILL CREATE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY LIMITING CONVECTION A BIT. STILL...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE PROPAGATES INLAND. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR IS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED CLOUDS TO PERHAPS AT TIMES BROKEN HIGHER CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS MID AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVE HOURS. LATER FORECASTS MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE A LITTLE MORE SPECIFICITY IN THIS REGARD TO INCLUDE TIMING. CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR LOWER SHOULD ANY THUNDERSTORM MOVE OVERHEAD OR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE TERMINAL. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR EXCEPT FOR SHORT-LIVED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN SOME COASTAL AREAS...CONVECTION MAY POSE A THREAT FOR DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS. TSTMS FORECAST TO HAVE A SLOW GENERAL SEAWARD STEERING REGIME AGAIN TODAY. OTHER THAN TSTM HAZARDS...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THROUGH TONIGHT. SW FLOW 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS COULD REACH UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH NOCTURNAL SURGING. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #530070 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 429 AM EDT Sun Jul 29 2012 ...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible today... .SYNOPSIS... The 03 UTC regional surface analysis showed a rather broad ridge across South FL and much of the Gulf of Mexico, a pre-frontal trough along the Piedmont, and a cold front across north AL and GA. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a high pressure center over the TX Panhandle and a trough over the eastern CONUS. && .SHORT TERM... [Today through Tuesday] There is good agreement among the GFS MOS and Convection Allowing Model (CAM) that numerous showers and thunderstorms will affect our forecast area today, especially this afternoon and early evening. The CAM consensus forecasts peak SBCAPE values near 3000 J/kg over much of the region this afternoon, which is very unstable (even for our area, this time of year). Several models also predict at least some drying in the mid troposphere. The combination of high CAPE and boundary layer moisture, steep low layer lapse rates, and drier air aloft, could help contribute to isolated wet microbursts today. Some of the CAM NWP forecast strong updraft speeds as well, further bolstering the potential for at least a few strong to marginally severe storms. Isolated winds gusts (58 MPH) and hail (quarter size) will be the main threats. Localized flooding is also a possibility, along with frequent lightning. Our rain chances will be near to slightly above climo values through Tuesday as a mean 500 mb trough continues over the eastern CONUS. The thermodynamics will likely remain similar to what we expect today, meaning that pulse severe storms will remain possible. As our region comes under the influence of northwest winds aloft, we will begin looking well upstream for any Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) and/or subtle upper level short waves, as they can bring storms to our area from far away (even during the overnight areas). The timing, strength, and eventual track of such systems is always problematic, so we will have to evaluate this on a day-by- day basis. It`s possible that a more organized severe storm threat could emerge with one (or more) of these systems, so this weather pattern bears watching. .LONG TERM... [Wednesday through next Sunday] Mean position of an upper level anticyclone in the first half of the extended will be over the southern Plains, which would put the Southeast US in a deep N-NW flow aloft. The concerns that have been advertised the last few nights about MCS activity propagating into the area from the northwest during the Wednesday to Friday timeframe still appear valid. Underneath the core of the hot dome of high pressure in the Southern Plains, low-level flow looks to largely be S-SW. This may intersect a quasi-stationary front draped NW-SE that would roughly follow the northeastern extent of the more prominent EML plume over the Plains. To the northeast of the front, the models project pool of higher low-level (0-2km) thetae extending from roughly the Missouri River Valley, to western Tennessee, and on S-SE into our forecast area. This also coincides with southern periphery of the stronger mid-level NW flow (20-25kt at 500mb). From a pattern recognition standpoint, such a setup is typically favorable for mesoscale convective systems to form near the nose of the LLJ and steeper mid-level lapse rates and then push southeast in the region of greatest potential instability, with an attendant threat of gusty winds. Numerical models, particularly beyond about 36-48 hours, tend to struggle with the timing and location of such MCS. Given the uncertainties outlined above, PoPs were kept more even between all hours of the day than what would be typically expected in the summer months around here. We went with about 30% during the overnight and about 40-50% during the daytime hours. The remainder of the forecast elements closely followed HPC guidance, with temperatures near climatological normals. For next weekend, the ridge appears to expand back to the east, leaving us in lighter flow overall, and sea-breeze activity should begin to dominate the daily fluctuations in convection again. && .AVIATION...[Through 00 UTC Monday] Lesser coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon/evening should lead to minimal fog and low clouds overnight. Best chance will likely be at KVLD which saw the most rain of the TAF sites. Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms expected again on Sunday afternoon. Best chances (and TEMPOS) at KVLD/KTLH/KECP with only VCTS at remaining terminals. && .MARINE... Winds will increase a bit by this afternoon (into the 10-15 kt range), then weaken to 10 kt or less late tonight. A similar cycle is epxected for Monday. However, advisory conditions are unlikely. && .FIRE WEATHER... Relative humidity levels are expected to remain above critical thresholds for the next several days, so red flag conditions are unlikely. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 91 74 91 73 93 / 70 40 60 20 40 Panama City 89 76 90 77 90 / 50 30 50 20 40 Dothan 93 74 94 75 93 / 70 40 40 20 40 Albany 93 74 93 75 93 / 60 40 40 20 40 Valdosta 91 72 92 72 93 / 70 40 60 20 40 Cross City 88 73 89 72 92 / 60 30 50 30 40 Apalachicola 87 77 87 78 88 / 40 30 50 30 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...None. FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #530069 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 334 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SHORT TERM... EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TO REPLACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA. AS OF THIS POINT...THAT HAS NOT QUITE HAPPENED YET. MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE EXPECTING PW VALUES IN THE 1.8 TO 1.9 RANGE AND THE 00Z SOUNDING HERE AT KLIX CAME IN AT 2.05. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ONCE THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. MOSTLY 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE MID 90S AND EVEN SOME UPPER 90S IN THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS OF THE CWA. RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF A HEAT ADVISORY AS HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO REACH VERY CLOSE TO 108 IN A FEW AREAS BUT WITH THE DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND WITHOUT HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THOSE VALUES WILL BE REACHED FOR TWO OR MORE HOURS...WILL OPT TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR TODAY. THAT SAID...IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS...A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA FOR TOMORROW. .LONG TERM... MUCH OF THE SAME EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE HIGH MOVES IN AND BROADENS OUT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH PEAK HEATING BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A FEW DISTURBANCES COULD MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND BRING SOME GREATER RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA BUT THOSE ARE SURELY HARD TO FORECAST DAYS IN ADVANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY REACHING THE MID 90S. && .AVIATION... PATCHY FOG IS OCCURRING NEAR KMCB. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 2 TO 3 THOUSAND FEET DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. ONCE SURFACE HEATING SHUTS DOWN RISK OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH GREATLY. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SEAS OF MOSTLY ONE TO TWO FEET. STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL DOMINATE THE MARINE WEATHER THIS WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 97 74 98 72 / 20 10 10 20 BTR 96 77 97 74 / 20 10 10 10 ASD 95 76 96 77 / 20 10 20 20 MSY 94 78 93 78 / 20 10 10 20 GPT 95 78 93 78 / 20 10 20 20 PQL 95 76 94 78 / 20 20 20 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530068 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 423 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED MON AND TUE...BUT A SPOT SHOWER CAN/T BE RULED OUT. UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK...BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 330 AM UPDATE...HAVE DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND WITH DEWPOINTS THE SAME...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE LARGELY BEEN REACHED. OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. TODAY...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE THERE IS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW DEGREES SHORT IF THE CLOUD COVER STICKS AROUND...PARTICULARLY ON THE EAST COAST. USED A BLEND OF MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINTS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN SATURDAY...BUT THEY REMAIN IN THE 60S AND IT WILL STILL FEEL HUMID. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... TONIGHT...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE. POPS DIMINISH TO NIL AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS... ALONG WITH THE RAINFALL FROM SATURDAY AND WHATEVER FALLS TODAY... WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * DRY WEATHER DOMINATES MON AND TUE * UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES WED THROUGH SAT BUT NOT A WASHOUT * BEST CHANCE OF SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE WED AND SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND DETAILS... MONDAY AND TUESDAY... DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND LACK OF A TRIGGER SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SPOT SHOWERS. TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY OVER 60 IT WILL FEEL A BIT MUGGY BUT CERTAINLY NOT OPPRESSIVE BY LATE JULY STANDARDS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A TYPICAL MID SUMMER PATTERN WHICH WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES ALONG WITH SOME HUMIDITY. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AND MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IS VERY CHALLENGING IN THIS TIME RANGE...SO ITS TOUGH TO PINPOINT THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS WED AND SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND MAY FEATURE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS SHOW THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE REGION. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH 12-15Z IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SUNDAY BUT EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA AGAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS. KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING THRU TODAY...THEN IFR AGAIN TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING THRU TODAY...SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPS THRU THE DAY TODAY. THEN IFR AGAIN TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. VFR MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH TONIGHT. MOIST AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SOUTHERLY SWELL MAY RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO SCA LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS WED AND THU. ALSO...AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR MARINERS AT TIMES MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK |
| #530067 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 323 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF WARM LATE JULY TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN. FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE INDICATED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NUMBERS SEEN ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS - HIGHS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES WELL INLAND AND IN THE LOWER/MID 90S NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST...LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WELL INLAND AND IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT A 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE WHICH IS STILL UNDER HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING HOURS AIDED BY WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER RIDGE. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES AND THE FACT THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...WILL CARRY POPS NO HIGHER THAN 10% AND ALLOW FOR FUTURE UPDATES IF/WHEN IT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE CLEAR WHEN/WHERE POSSIBLE STORMS MIGHT DEVELOP. 42 && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND RESPONDING SEA HEIGHTS LOW. THE ABSENCE OF ANY DISCERNIBLE PRESSURE GRADIENT MEANS THAT OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL TAKE A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT (LAND BREEZE) WHILE TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE TRAVELS FURTHER INLAND. 31 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 100 77 100 77 99 / 10 10 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 97 77 97 77 96 / 10 10 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 92 82 92 82 92 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530066 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:32 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 423 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...THEN PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH A SFC LOW LINGERING JUST OFFSHORE AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING OUT SOUTH OF THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TODAY...WITH A VORT MAX EXPECTED TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA. RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING ALREADY SHOWING SHOWER AND TSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER THOUGH...LATEST MESO MODELS NOT GRASPING THIS DEVELOPMENT TOO WELL...PLACING MORE TO THE SOUTH. SO WILL TOP POPS AT HIGHER END CHC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND OCCURRING. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS LIKELY POPS RIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ON GOING PRECIP. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS MOIST AS THE PREVIOUS DAY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK FLOW STILL REMAINS IN PLACE AS WELL..SO IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. NOT EXPECTING STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS TODAY WITH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES GREATLY DIMINISHED IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY WITH THE LOW LINGERING TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS FLOW...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THEN ANY PRECIP FORMATION...SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MAV AND MET HAD FAIRLY SIMILAR VALUES...SO JUST WENT WITH A BLEND FOR THE HIGHS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS EVENING...THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AND DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYING AT ALL LEVELS...SO COULD EVEN SEE PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MON AFTERNOON. WITH WARM AIR BEING ADVECTED IN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE SE...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO THE MID TEENS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARMER...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR HIGHS MON. USED A BLEND MAV/MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THIS PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE QUIET WEATHER IS SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH WEAKENS BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. BEGAN GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE. THE MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR THIS...SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR NOW UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE OF TIMING OF THE PRECIP. THE VORT MAX LOOKS TO PASS MORE TO THE WEST AND NORTH...SO KEPT POPS HIGHER IN THAT VICINITY. A STRONGER...MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS TO CHC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FORCING BEING PRODUCE BY THIS SHORTWAVE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS PATTERN OF SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ALL THE PASSAGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUES...BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE SW. THIS FLOW WILL INJECT IN VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR...RESULTING IN INCREASING TEMPS DURING THE WEEK. IN ADDITION...WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY SHOWER/TSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING...THOUGH THE MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT THE BEST CHC FOR ANYTHING TO FORM LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SCAPE VALUES REACHING UP TO BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ONSHORE FLOW...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT FELL ON SATURDAY... WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECTING MVFR TO IFR CONDS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK. MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON... VFR CONDS EXPECTED. FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON... ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP LATER ON. WILL TEMPO TSTMS IN THE MORNING...THEN WILL INTRODUCE PROB30 GROUPS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE EVENING AND WINDS BECOME L/V. SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .MONDAY...VFR. .TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALY VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL SUB- VFR POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. .THURSDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS...WHILE SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 3 FT AND LESS THAN 1 FT ON THE REST OF THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY BUILD TO OVER 5 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE OVERALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS COULD CREATE MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND IN URBAN AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS IMPACTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SEARS |
| #530065 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:27 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 424 AM AST SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF 20N IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE A WEAK INDUCED TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL PROMOTE AN UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNSTABLE THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK AS ITCZ MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY LIFTED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. && .DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING AN INCREASE ON SHOWERS OVER THE ANEGANADA PASSAGE...THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED TO THE TROUGH. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BEFORE SUNRISE. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS CONVECTION ACROSS INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE AND SQUALLY WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND SHOWERY THROUGH FRIDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ POOLS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 29/16Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL AFFECT THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED OVER TJMZ...AND TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN SHOWERS. && .MARINE...MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS FRESH WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE AREA. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT INCREASING WINDS...CHOPPY SEAS AND SQUALLY WEATHER BETWEEN LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 90 79 88 78 / 40 50 70 60 STT 90 80 91 80 / 40 60 70 70 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #530064 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:26 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 411 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISCERNIBLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER ANDROS ISLAND...MOVING SLOWLY WEST SOUTHWEST...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE...MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR REVEALS A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR (PWAT NEAR 1.20 INCHES) ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORMER CYCLONIC FEATURE...BUT WITH A RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE (PWAT NEAR 1.75 INCHES) IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE WISE...A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LIES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT...C-MAN STATION PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE DISTANT OFFSHORE WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE...BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE. .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... THE AFOREMENTIONED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW (500-200 MB) CENTERED NEAR ANDROS ISLAND WILL MIGRATE EVER SO SLOWLY WEST SOUTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DESPITE THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...A LOW LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AS A COUPLE OF SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH POCKETS OF HIGHER MOISTURE PASS WESTWARD AND THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL MAINTAIN DIME POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT UP POPS A TAD TO 20 PERCENT FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE WISE...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM HIGHS NEAR 90 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 80. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... ALTHOUGH OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN A CONTINENTAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE JUST EAST OF OUR REGION...A LOW (SURFACE TO 700 MB) WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL LIE NEAR OUR SERVICE AREA. GIVEN NO APPARENT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...MIGRATORY LOW LEVEL UNDULATIONS ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS WITHIN A FAIRLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL POSE THE THREAT FOR LOW CHANCE POPS WHICH COINCIDE WITH MOS GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...ENOUGH INSOLATION WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 80 OUTSIDE OF RAINFALL. && .MARINE... FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS BEYOND 40 NM WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. HENCE...NO EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE OR ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON ISLAND AIRPORTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KEY WEST 87 81 87 81 / 10 20 20 20 MARATHON 92 82 92 82 / 10 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530061 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:24 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 411 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...THEN PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH A SFC LOW LINGERING JUST OFFSHORE AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING OUT SOUTH OF THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TODAY...WITH A VORT MAX EXPECTED TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA. RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING ALREADY SHOWING SHOWER AND TSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER THOUGH...LATEST MESO MODELS NOT GRASPING THIS DEVELOPMENT TOO WELL...PLACING MORE TO THE SOUTH. SO WILL TOP POPS AT HIGHER END CHC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND OCCURRING. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS LIKELY POPS RIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ON GOING PRECIP. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS MOIST AS THE PREVIOUS DAY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK FLOW STILL REMAINS IN PLACE AS WELL..SO IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. NOT EXPECTING STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS TODAY WITH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES GREATLY DIMINISHED IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY WITH THE LOW LINGERING TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS FLOW...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THEN ANY PRECIP FORMATION...SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MAV AND MET HAD FAIRLY SIMILAR VALUES...SO JUST WENT WITH A BLEND FOR THE HIGHS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS EVENING...THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AND DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYING AT ALL LEVELS...SO COULD EVEN SEE PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MON AFTERNOON. WITH WARM AIR BEING ADVECTED IN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE SE...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO THE MID TEENS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARMER...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR HIGHS MON. USED A BLEND MAV/MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THIS PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE QUIET WEATHER IS SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH WEAKENS BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. BEGAN GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE. THE MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR THIS...SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR NOW UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE OF TIMING OF THE PRECIP. THE VORT MAX LOOKS TO PASS MORE TO THE WEST AND NORTH...SO KEPT POPS HIGHER IN THAT VICINITY. A STRONGER...MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS TO CHC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FORCING BEING PRODUCE BY THIS SHORTWAVE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS PATTERN OF SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ALL THE PASSAGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUES...BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE SW. THIS FLOW WILL INJECT IN VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR...RESULTING IN INCREASING TEMPS DURING THE WEEK. IN ADDITION...WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY SHOWER/TSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING...THOUGH THE MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT THE BEST CHC FOR ANYTHING TO FORM LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SCAPE VALUES REACHING UP TO BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ONSHORE FLOW...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT FELL ON SATURDAY... WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECTING MVFR TO IFR CONDS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK. MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON... VFR CONDS EXPECTED. FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON... ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP LATER ON. WILL TEMPO TSTMS IN THE MORNING...THEN WILL INTRODUCE PROB30 GROUPS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE EVENING AND WINDS BECOME L/V. SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .MONDAY...VFR. .TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALY VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL SUB- VFR POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. .THURSDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS...WHILE SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 3 FT AND LESS THAN 1 FT ON THE REST OF THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY BUILD TO OVER 5 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE OVERALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS COULD CREATE MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND IN URBAN AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS IMPACTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SEARS |
| #530058 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:24 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 400 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE ON A WEAK FRONT SITS ASTRIDE THE DELAWARE NEW JERSEY COAST TODAY. THEN FROM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA... DRAWING THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL FRONT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND KEEP US IN A WARM HUMID SUMMER PATTERN ALL OF THIS COMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO WHEEL AWAY TOWARDS OUR NORTHEAST. THIS IS KEEPING A FEW SHOWERS GOING TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA AND AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH IT WILL DRAG THESE SHOWERS WITH IT. WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR ZONES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND ALLOW THE COLUMN TO DRY OUT GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER-80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... WE CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STILL WITH NOT MUCH GRADIENT FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE NICELY TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID-60S WITH DEWPOINTS ABOUT THE SAME. THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AS SOME OF THE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT FOR THE MOST PART NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING DENSE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 500 MB: A GENERALLY WEAK TROUGH WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK PERMITTING AN OVERALL SUMMERY HUMID PATTERN. TEMPS: NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. DEWPOINTS: ON THE LOWER SIDE OF HUMID EARLY /SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB TEMPS/ EARLY THIS WORK WEEK WILL PROBABLY BECOME FAR MORE NOTICEABLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN WE EXPRESS GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN OUR WARMING TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE DAILIES MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WERE BLENDED 00Z NCEP GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS 330PM EDT SATURDAY JULY 28 KPHI FCST. CONFIDENCE ON MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS BELOW AVG. WE SAW THE SWODY3 FOR TUESDAY. ITS AN OVERALL SUMMER PATTERN... MOSTLY RAINFREE BUT WHEN IT RAINS...IT POURS. THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE RETURN SE FLOW LOW CLOUDINESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...POSSIBLY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. WITH ALL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL OFF THE COAST ALL WE HAVE LEFT TO DEAL WITH IS THE REMAINING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF OUR TAF SITES RECEIVED ENOUGH RAIN TODAY THAT A STRATUS DECK WILL FORM AND MORE THAN LIKELY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO LIKELY IN OUR MORE SHELTERED TERMINALS THIS MORNING...MVFR VSBYS. ALL OF THE MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z EVERYWHERE. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY THE OVERALL SURFACE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AT LESS THAN 8 KNOTS. INSTEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH SO OUR INTERIOR TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE A MORE NORTHERLY WIND WHILE CLOSER TO THE COAST IT SHOULD BE MORE NORTHEASTERLY...AGAIN VERY LIGHT WINDS AND VERY HARD TO DEFINE A DIRECTION. DURING THE DAY A STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL FORM AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED MAKING FOR A GOOD VFR FLYING DAY. OUTLOOK... MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CIGS IN THE AFTN BUT MVFR CONDS IN FOG/ST/SC IN THE MORNING HOURS. WED AFTERNOON-THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR. THERE IS CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 15 KT... STARTING OUT S-SELY MON/TUE TRENDING S OR SW WED AND THU. && .MARINE... SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS OUR WATERS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. COULD STILL SEE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING AND THEN OVER OUR NORTHERN WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS PRETTY RELAXED SO WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE AROUND 3 FEET. OUTLOOK... CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SE FLOW MON-TUE TRENDING S-SW WED AND THU. && .HYDROLOGY... THIS PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A COUPLE OF AFTERNOON/EVENINGS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE EXCESSIVE SHORT TERM RAINFALL. PARTS OF SUSSEX...MORRIS AND WARREN COUNTIES IN NJ HAVE GRIDDED 1HR FFG UNDER 1.1 INCHES AND ARE AT FIRST GLANCE...THE MOST VULNERABLE NON URBAN REGIONS. THE PERKIOMEN AT EAST GREENVILLE IN BUCKS COUNTY AND METEDECONK RIVER AT LAKEWOOD IN NORTHERN OCEAN COUNTY RESPONDED TO ACTION BUT BELOW FS YDY-SUNDAY. SO AS WE GRADUALLY RECOVER FROM OUR SHORT TERM RAINFALL DEFICIT...THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING INCREASES. YDYS 012Z/28 46 MEMBER NAEFS AXIS OF 2+ RAINFALL WAS MOST CONFIDENTLY STATED FOR THE DEL VALLEY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ASTRO TIDES ARE INCREASING AS WE HEAD FOR FULL MOON EARLY ON THE 2ND. SOME OF OUR GUIDANCE ON THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IS INDICATING WE MAY RECEIVE THE NECESSARY 1/2 FOOT POSITIVE DEPARTURE NECESSARY TO FORCE STATEMENTS REGARDING POSSIBLE MARGINAL MINOR AT WORST TIDAL INUNDATION FLOODING. && .RIP CURRENTS... ALTHOUGH THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE, AN 11 SECOND WAVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SUNDAY. && .CLIMATE... RERACY AND RERTTN YDY FOR RFALL. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG |
| #530063 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:21 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 406 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS OVERHEAD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTION WHICH FIRED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS BEGUN TO WANE WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING OFFSHORE AND MOVING AWAY. ANOTHER RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NW AND W LATE DAY AND TONIGHT. ONE WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD THEN RETREAT WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WASHING OUT TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE HANGING ON ALONG THE COAST WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS ACROSS INLAND AREAS. DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND INSTABILITY TO RISE WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG TODAY. DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 1500 J/KG...INDICATING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGEST OF STORMS INTO THIS EVE. THE RISK FOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OR REDEVELOP AFTER DARK WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE W. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD MAKE DECENT INLAND PROGRESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE GIVEN THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT AS WELL AS ALONG THE RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL CARRY HIGHER CHANCE TO LOW LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH POPS WANING TOWARD MON MORNING. THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO COOL SLIGHTLY AND THAT COUPLED WITH CLOUDS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS GENERALLY A DEG OR TWO LOWER THAN ON SAT. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST TO LOWER TO MID 90S AS YOU PROGRESS INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH A FEW RAIN COOLED LOCATIONS PERHAPS BRIEFLY FALLING TO THE LOWER 70S BEFORE RECOVERING SLIGHTLY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE MID LEVELS THE TROUGH WILL BE QUITE WEAK THIS FAR SOUTH AS THE MAIN VORT CUTS JUST SOUTH OF THE NATION`S CAPITAL. ADDITIONALLY THE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO JUST OFFSHORE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND JUST SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. THE GFS HAS ANOTHER VORT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND COULD CONCEIVABLY NECESSITATE A BUMP IN POPS AWAY FROM JUST THE COAST AS MENTIONED EARLIER. LIKE THE WRF THOUGH THE GFS AGREES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE CHANNEL. TUESDAY MAY TURN A BIT MORE ACTIVE. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRENGTHENING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE WRF MORESO IN DEGREE. ASSUMING THAT WHAT COMES TO PASS WILL SHOW RAIN CHANCES/TSTM COVERAGE RISE HIGHER INTO CHANCE RANGE. TEMPS MONDAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL AND A FEW DEGREES LOWER DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH AMPLIFYING IT AT TIMES. AS ONE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUES THE MAIN TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN A BIT THROUGH MID WEEK. THE W-SW FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE NW AS TROUGH AXIS SLIPS OFF THE COAST WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO MAKE IT INTO AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND EXPECT MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE MAIN FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE MID WEEK WHICH WILL HELP KEEP SEA BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND STEER ANY SHWRS/TSTMS TOWARD THE COAST. BASICALLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER BUT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY MAINTAINING A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OVERALL. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL RETREAT BACK WEST AND DEEPEN COME LATE THURS THROUGH SAT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL PRODUCE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND GREATER CHC OF PCP ONCE AGAIN LATE THURS INTO FRI. TROUGHING ALOFT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD PUSH TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER BUT A STRONGER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND DRIER SUNNIER WEATHER MID WEEK WILL HELP WARM TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TUES AND WED. 850 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SPIKE UP WITH PEAK ON WED. CLOUDS AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER LATE THURS THROUGH SAT WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN SOME WITH TUES AND WED BEING WARMEST DAYS. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 06Z...WILL INCLUDE TEMPO TSRA AT KLBT AND KFLO TIL 07/08Z RESPECTIVELY. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THESE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AT ALL THE TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF INTO THE EVENING HOURS... ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 5 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WILL HANG ONTO SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH DAYBREAK. FURTHER SOUTH...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. THE WATERS WILL LIE BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND EAST COAST TROUGH THIS PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON AND EVE SEABREEZE AS IT PUSHES INLAND. SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD PEAK NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT...OTHERWISE 10 TO 15 KT SHOULD PREVAIL. THE DIRECTION WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE BACKING TO THE SSW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME 5 FOOT SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH DAYBREAK. A WEAK 11 TO 12 SECOND SE SWELL IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE BUOYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS SWELL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE ON MONDAY BUT UP ABOUT A CATEGORY INTO TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS QUITE COAST-PARALLEL AND SO A CONSIDERABLE NEARSHORE VS OFFSHORE RANGE IN SEAS MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SINCE A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATELY STRONG SWRLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC. SCEC HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS FOR PART OF THE VALID PERIOD. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER INLAND CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH MID WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW REACHING A MORE SOLID 15 KTS AND UP TO 20 KTS AT TIMES. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT TUES WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 5 FT AT TIMES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #530059 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:21 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 400 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE ON A WEAK FRONT SITS ASTRIDE THE DELAWARE NEW JERSEY COAST TODAY. THEN FROM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA... DRAWING THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL FRONT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND KEEP US IN A WARM HUMID SUMMER PATTERN ALL OF THIS COMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO WHEEL AWAY TOWARDS OUR NORTHEAST. THIS IS KEEPING A FEW SHOWERS GOING TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA AND AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH IT WILL DRAG THESE SHOWERS WITH IT. WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR ZONES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND ALLOW THE COLUMN TO DRY OUT GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER-80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... WE CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STILL WITH NOT MUCH GRADIENT FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE NICELY TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID-60S WITH DEWPOINTS ABOUT THE SAME. THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AS SOME OF THE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT FOR THE MOST PART NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING DENSE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 500 MB: A GENERALLY WEAK TROUGH WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK PERMITTING AN OVERALL SUMMERY HUMID PATTERN. TEMPS: NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. DEWPOINTS: ON THE LOWER SIDE OF HUMID EARLY /SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB TEMPS/ EARLY THIS WORK WEEK WILL PROBABLY BECOME FAR MORE NOTICEABLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN WE EXPRESS GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN OUR WARMING TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE DAILIES MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WERE BLENDED 00Z NCEP GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS 330PM EDT SATURDAY JULY 28 KPHI FCST. CONFIDENCE ON MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS BELOW AVG. WE SAW THE SWODY3 FOR TUESDAY. ITS AN OVERALL SUMMER PATTERN... MOSTLY RAINFREE BUT WHEN IT RAINS...IT POURS. THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE RETURN SE FLOW LOW CLOUDINESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...POSSIBLY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. WITH ALL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL OFF THE COAST ALL WE HAVE LEFT TO DEAL WITH IS THE REMAINING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF OUR TAF SITES RECEIVED ENOUGH RAIN TODAY THAT A STRATUS DECK WILL FORM AND MORE THAN LIKELY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO LIKELY IN OUR MORE SHELTERED TERMINALS THIS MORNING...MVFR VSBYS. ALL OF THE MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z EVERYWHERE. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY THE OVERALL SURFACE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AT LESS THAN 8 KNOTS. INSTEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH SO OUR INTERIOR TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE A MORE NORTHERLY WIND WHILE CLOSER TO THE COAST IT SHOULD BE MORE NORTHEASTERLY...AGAIN VERY LIGHT WINDS AND VERY HARD TO DEFINE A DIRECTION. DURING THE DAY A STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL FORM AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED MAKING FOR A GOOD VFR FLYING DAY. OUTLOOK... MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CIGS IN THE AFTN BUT MVFR CONDS IN FOG/ST/SC IN THE MORNING HOURS. WED AFTERNOON-THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR. THERE IS CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 15 KT... STARTING OUT S-SELY MON/TUE TRENDING S OR SW WED AND THU. && .MARINE... SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS OUR WATERS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. COULD STILL SEE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING AND THEN OVER OUR NORTHERN WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS PRETTY RELAXED SO WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE AROUND 3 FEET. OUTLOOK... CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SE FLOW MON-TUE TRENDING S-SW WED AND THU. && .HYDROLOGY... THIS PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A COUPLE OF AFTERNOON/EVENINGS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE EXCESSIVE SHORT TERM RAINFALL. PARTS OF SUSSEX...MORRIS AND WARREN COUNTIES IN NJ HAVE GRIDDED 1HR FFG UNDER 1.1 INCHES AND ARE AT FIRST GLANCE...THE MOST VULNERABLE NON URBAN REGIONS. THE PERKIOMEN AT EAST GREENVILLE IN BUCKS COUNTY AND METEDECONK RIVER AT LAKEWOOD IN NORTHERN OCEAN COUNTY RESPONDED TO ACTION BUT BELOW FS YDY-SUNDAY. SO AS WE GRADUALLY RECOVER FROM OUR SHORT TERM RAINFALL DEFICIT...THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING INCREASES. YDYS 012Z/28 46 MEMBER NAEFS AXIS OF 2+ RAINFALL WAS MOST CONFIDENTLY STATED FOR THE DEL VALLEY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ASTRO TIDES ARE INCREASING AS WE HEAD FOR FULL MOON EARLY ON THE 2ND. SOME OF OUR GUIDANCE ON THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IS INDICATING WE MAY RECEIVE THE NECESSARY 1/2 FOOT POSITIVE DEPARTURE NECESSARY TO FORCE STATEMENTS REGARDING POSSIBLE MARGINAL MINOR AT WORST TIDAL INUNDATION FLOODING. && .RIP CURRENTS... ALTHOUGH THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE, AN 11 SECOND WAVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SUNDAY. && .CLIMATE... RERACY AND RERTTN YDY FOR RFALL. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG |
| #530056 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:18 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 400 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE ON A WEAK FRONT SITS ASTRIDE THE DELAWARE NEW JERSEY COAST TODAY. THEN FROM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA... DRAWING THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL FRONT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND KEEP US IN A WARM HUMID SUMMER PATTERN ALL OF THIS COMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO WHEEL AWAY TOWARDS OUR NORTHEAST. THIS IS KEEPING A FEW SHOWERS GOING TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA AND AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH IT WILL DRAG THESE SHOWERS WITH IT. WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR ZONES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND ALLOW THE COLUMN TO DRY OUT GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER-80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... WE CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STILL WITH NOT MUCH GRADIENT FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE NICELY TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID-60S WITH DEWPOINTS ABOUT THE SAME. THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AS SOME OF THE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT FOR THE MOST PART NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING DENSE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 500 MB: A GENERALLY WEAK TROUGH WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK PERMITTING AN OVERALL SUMMERY HUMID PATTERN. TEMPS: NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. DEWPOINTS: ON THE LOWER SIDE OF HUMID EARLY /SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB TEMPS/ EARLY THIS WORK WEEK WILL PROBABLY BECOME FAR MORE NOTICEABLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN WE EXPRESS GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN OUR WARMING TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE DAILIES MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WERE BLENDED 00Z NCEP GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS 330PM EDT SATURDAY JULY 28 KPHI FCST. CONFIDENCE ON MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS BELOW AVG. WE SAW THE SWODY3 FOR TUESDAY. ITS AN OVERALL SUMMER PATTERN... MOSTLY RAINFREE BUT WHEN IT RAINS...IT POURS. THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE RETURN SE FLOW LOW CLOUDINESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...POSSIBLY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. WITH ALL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL OFF THE COAST ALL WE HAVE LEFT TO DEAL WITH IS THE REMAINING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF OUR TAF SITES RECEIVED ENOUGH RAIN TODAY THAT A STRATUS DECK WILL FORM AND MORE THAN LIKELY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO LIKELY IN OUR MORE SHELTERED TERMINALS THIS MORNING...MVFR VSBYS. ALL OF THE MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z EVERYWHERE. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY THE OVERALL SURFACE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AT LESS THAN 8 KNOTS. INSTEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH SO OUR INTERIOR TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE A MORE NORTHERLY WIND WHILE CLOSER TO THE COAST IT SHOULD BE MORE NORTHEASTERLY...AGAIN VERY LIGHT WINDS AND VERY HARD TO DEFINE A DIRECTION. DURING THE DAY A STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL FORM AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED MAKING FOR A GOOD VFR FLYING DAY. OUTLOOK... MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CIGS IN THE AFTN BUT MVFR CONDS IN FOG/ST/SC IN THE MORNING HOURS. WED AFTERNOON-THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR. THERE IS CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 15 KT... STARTING OUT S-SELY MON/TUE TRENDING S OR SW WED AND THU. && .MARINE... SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS OUR WATERS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. COULD STILL SEE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING AND THEN OVER OUR NORTHERN WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS PRETTY RELAXED SO WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE AROUND 3 FEET. OUTLOOK... CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SE FLOW MON-TUE TRENDING S-SW WED AND THU. && .HYDROLOGY... THIS PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A COUPLE OF AFTERNOON/EVENINGS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE EXCESSIVE SHORT TERM RAINFALL. PARTS OF SUSSEX...MORRIS AND WARREN COUNTIES IN NJ HAVE GRIDDED 1HR FFG UNDER 1.1 INCHES AND ARE AT FIRST GLANCE...THE MOST VULNERABLE NON URBAN REGIONS. THE PERKIOMEN AT EAST GREENVILLE IN BUCKS COUNTY AND METEDECONK RIVER AT LAKEWOOD IN NORTHERN OCEAN COUNTY RESPONDED TO ACTION BUT BELOW FS YDY-SUNDAY. SO AS WE GRADUALLY RECOVER FROM OUR SHORT TERM RAINFALL DEFICIT...THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING INCREASES. YDYS 012Z/28 46 MEMBER NAEFS AXIS OF 2+ RAINFALL WAS MOST CONFIDENTLY STATED FOR THE DEL VALLEY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ASTRO TIDES ARE INCREASING AS WE HEAD FOR FULL MOON EARLY ON THE 2ND. SOME OF OUR GUIDANCE ON THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IS INDICATING WE MAY RECEIVE THE NECESSARY 1/2 FOOT POSITIVE DEPARTURE NECESSARY TO FORCE STATEMENTS REGARDING POSSIBLE MARGINAL MINOR AT WORST TIDAL INUNDATION FLOODING. && .RIP CURRENTS... ALTHOUGH THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE, AN 11 SECOND WAVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SUNDAY. && .CLIMATE... RERACY AND RERTTN YDY FOR RFALL. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG |
| #530055 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:15 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 356 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS OVERHEAD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTION WHICH FIRED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS BEGUN TO WANE WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING OFFSHORE AND MOVING AWAY. ANOTHER RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NW AND W LATE DAY AND TONIGHT. ONE WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD THEN RETREAT WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WASHING OUT TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE HANGING ON ALONG THE COAST WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS ACROSS INLAND AREAS. DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND INSTABILITY TO RISE WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG TODAY. DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 1500 J/KG...INDICATING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGEST OF STORMS INTO THIS EVE. THE RISK FOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OR REDEVELOP AFTER DARK WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE W. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD MAKE DECENT INLAND PROGRESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE GIVEN THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT AS WELL AS ALONG THE RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL CARRY HIGHER CHANCE TO LOW LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH POPS WANING TOWARD MON MORNING. THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO COOL SLIGHTLY AND THAT COUPLED WITH CLOUDS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS GENERALLY A DEG OR TWO LOWER THAN ON SAT. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST TO LOWER TO MID 90S AS YOU PROGRESS INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH A FEW RAIN COOLED LOCATIONS PERHAPS BRIEFLY FALLING TO THE LOWER 70S BEFORE RECOVERING SLIGHTLY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE MID LEVELS THE TROUGH WILL BE QUITE WEAK THIS FAR SOUTH AS THE MAIN VORT CUTS JUST SOUTH OF THE NATION`S CAPITAL. ADDITIONALLY THE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO JUST OFFSHORE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND JUST SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. THE GFS HAS ANOTHER VORT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND COULD CONCEIVABLY NECESSITATE A BUMP IN POPS AWAY FROM JUST THE COAST AS MENTIONED EARLIER. LIKE THE WRF THOUGH THE GFS AGREES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE CHANNEL. TUESDAY MAY TURN A BIT MORE ACTIVE. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRENGTHENING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE WRF MORESO IN DEGREE. ASSUMING THAT WHAT COMES TO PASS WILL SHOW RAIN CHANCES/TSTM COVERAGE RISE HIGHER INTO CHANCE RANGE. TEMPS MONDAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL AND A FEW DEGREES LOWER DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH AMPLIFYING IT AT TIMES. AS ONE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUES THE MAIN TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN A BIT THROUGH MID WEEK. THE W-SW FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE NW AS TROUGH AXIS SLIPS OFF THE COAST WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO MAKE IT INTO AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND EXPECT MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE MAIN FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE MID WEEK WHICH WILL HELP KEEP SEA BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND STEER ANY SHWRS/TSTMS TOWARD THE COAST. BASICALLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER BUT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY MAINTAINING A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OVERALL. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL RETREAT BACK WEST AND DEEPEN COME LATE THURS THROUGH SAT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL PRODUCE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND GREATER CHC OF PCP ONCE AGAIN LATE THURS INTO FRI. TROUGHING ALOFT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD PUSH TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER BUT A STRONGER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND DRIER SUNNIER WEATHER MID WEEK WILL HELP WARM TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TUES AND WED. 850 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SPIKE UP WITH PEAK ON WED. CLOUDS AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER LATE THURS THROUGH SAT WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN SOME WITH TUES AND WED BEING WARMEST DAYS. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 06Z...WILL INCLUDE TEMPO TSRA AT KLBT AND KFLO TIL 07/08Z RESPECTIVELY. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THESE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AT ALL THE TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF INTO THE EVENING HOURS... ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 5 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1100 PM SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN AT A STEADY 15 TO 20 KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. SIG SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE COMPRISED OF A SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE AT 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS...AND AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FT ESE GROUND SWELL AT 12 SECOND PERIODS. THE SHORT PERIOD SCEC FOR THE ILM NC WATERS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE ON MONDAY BUT UP ABOUT A CATEGORY INTO TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS QUITE COAST-PARALLEL AND SO A CONSIDERABLE NEARSHORE VS OFFSHORE RANGE IN SEAS MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SINCE A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATELY STRONG SWRLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC. SCEC HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS FOR PART OF THE VALID PERIOD. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER INLAND CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH MID WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW REACHING A MORE SOLID 15 KTS AND UP TO 20 KTS AT TIMES. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT TUES WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 5 FT AT TIMES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #530057 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:12 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 400 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE ON A WEAK FRONT SITS ASTRIDE THE DELAWARE NEW JERSEY COAST TODAY. THEN FROM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA... DRAWING THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL FRONT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND KEEP US IN A WARM HUMID SUMMER PATTERN ALL OF THIS COMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO WHEEL AWAY TOWARDS OUR NORTHEAST. THIS IS KEEPING A FEW SHOWERS GOING TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA AND AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH IT WILL DRAG THESE SHOWERS WITH IT. WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR ZONES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND ALLOW THE COLUMN TO DRY OUT GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER-80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... WE CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STILL WITH NOT MUCH GRADIENT FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE NICELY TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID-60S WITH DEWPOINTS ABOUT THE SAME. THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AS SOME OF THE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT FOR THE MOST PART NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING DENSE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 500 MB: A GENERALLY WEAK TROUGH WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK PERMITTING AN OVERALL SUMMERY HUMID PATTERN. TEMPS: NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. DEWPOINTS: ON THE LOWER SIDE OF HUMID EARLY /SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB TEMPS/ EARLY THIS WORK WEEK WILL PROBABLY BECOME FAR MORE NOTICEABLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN WE EXPRESS GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN OUR WARMING TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE DAILIES MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WERE BLENDED 00Z NCEP GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS 330PM EDT SATURDAY JULY 28 KPHI FCST. CONFIDENCE ON MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS BELOW AVG. WE SAW THE SWODY3 FOR TUESDAY. ITS AN OVERALL SUMMER PATTERN... MOSTLY RAINFREE BUT WHEN IT RAINS...IT POURS. THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE RETURN SE FLOW LOW CLOUDINESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...POSSIBLY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. WITH ALL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL OFF THE COAST ALL WE HAVE LEFT TO DEAL WITH IS THE REMAINING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF OUR TAF SITES RECEIVED ENOUGH RAIN TODAY THAT A STRATUS DECK WILL FORM AND MORE THAN LIKELY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO LIKELY IN OUR MORE SHELTERED TERMINALS THIS MORNING...MVFR VSBYS. ALL OF THE MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z EVERYWHERE. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY THE OVERALL SURFACE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AT LESS THAN 8 KNOTS. INSTEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH SO OUR INTERIOR TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE A MORE NORTHERLY WIND WHILE CLOSER TO THE COAST IT SHOULD BE MORE NORTHEASTERLY...AGAIN VERY LIGHT WINDS AND VERY HARD TO DEFINE A DIRECTION. DURING THE DAY A STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL FORM AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED MAKING FOR A GOOD VFR FLYING DAY. OUTLOOK... MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CIGS IN THE AFTN BUT MVFR CONDS IN FOG/ST/SC IN THE MORNING HOURS. WED AFTERNOON-THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR. THERE IS CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 15 KT... STARTING OUT S-SELY MON/TUE TRENDING S OR SW WED AND THU. && .MARINE... SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS OUR WATERS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. COULD STILL SEE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING AND THEN OVER OUR NORTHERN WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS PRETTY RELAXED SO WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE AROUND 3 FEET. OUTLOOK... CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SE FLOW MON-TUE TRENDING S-SW WED AND THU. && .HYDROLOGY... THIS PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A COUPLE OF AFTERNOON/EVENINGS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE EXCESSIVE SHORT TERM RAINFALL. PARTS OF SUSSEX...MORRIS AND WARREN COUNTIES IN NJ HAVE GRIDDED 1HR FFG UNDER 1.1 INCHES AND ARE AT FIRST GLANCE...THE MOST VULNERABLE NON URBAN REGIONS. THE PERKIOMEN AT EAST GREENVILLE IN BUCKS COUNTY AND METEDECONK RIVER AT LAKEWOOD IN NORTHERN OCEAN COUNTY RESPONDED TO ACTION BUT BELOW FS YDY-SUNDAY. SO AS WE GRADUALLY RECOVER FROM OUR SHORT TERM RAINFALL DEFICIT...THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING INCREASES. YDYS 012Z/28 46 MEMBER NAEFS AXIS OF 2+ RAINFALL WAS MOST CONFIDENTLY STATED FOR THE DEL VALLEY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ASTRO TIDES ARE INCREASING AS WE HEAD FOR FULL MOON EARLY ON THE 2ND. SOME OF OUR GUIDANCE ON THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IS INDICATING WE MAY RECEIVE THE NECESSARY 1/2 FOOT POSITIVE DEPARTURE NECESSARY TO FORCE STATEMENTS REGARDING POSSIBLE MARGINAL MINOR AT WORST TIDAL INUNDATION FLOODING. && .RIP CURRENTS... ALTHOUGH THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE, AN 11 SECOND WAVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SUNDAY. && .CLIMATE... RERACY AND RERTTN YDY FOR RFALL. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG |
| #530062 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:09 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 356 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS OVERHEAD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTION WHICH FIRED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS BEGUN TO WANE WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING OFFSHORE AND MOVING AWAY. ANOTHER RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NW AND W LATE DAY AND TONIGHT. ONE WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD THEN RETREAT WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WASHING OUT TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE HANGING ON ALONG THE COAST WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS ACROSS INLAND AREAS. DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND INSTABILITY TO RISE WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG TODAY. DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 1500 J/KG...INDICATING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGEST OF STORMS INTO THIS EVE. THE RISK FOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OR REDEVELOP AFTER DARK WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE W. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD MAKE DECENT INLAND PROGRESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE GIVEN THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT AS WELL AS ALONG THE RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL CARRY HIGHER CHANCE TO LOW LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH POPS WANING TOWARD MON MORNING. THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO COOL SLIGHTLY AND THAT COUPLED WITH CLOUDS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS GENERALLY A DEG OR TWO LOWER THAN ON SAT. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST TO LOWER TO MID 90S AS YOU PROGRESS INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH A FEW RAIN COOLED LOCATIONS PERHAPS BRIEFLY FALLING TO THE LOWER 70S BEFORE RECOVERING SLIGHTLY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE MID LEVELS THE TROUGH WILL BE QUITE WEAK THIS FAR SOUTH AS THE MAIN VORT CUTS JUST SOUTH OF THE NATION`S CAPITAL. ADDITIONALLY THE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO JUST OFFSHORE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND JUST SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. THE GFS HAS ANOTHER VORT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND COULD CONCEIVABLY NECESSITATE A BUMP IN POPS AWAY FROM JUST THE COAST AS MENTIONED EARLIER. LIKE THE WRF THOUGH THE GFS AGREES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE CHANNEL. TUESDAY MAY TURN A BIT MORE ACTIVE. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRENGTHENING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE WRF MORESO IN DEGREE. ASSUMING THAT WHAT COMES TO PASS WILL SHOW RAIN CHANCES/TSTM COVERAGE RISE HIGHER INTO CHANCE RANGE. TEMPS MONDAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL AND A FEW DEGREES LOWER DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH AMPLIFYING IT AT TIMES. AS ONE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUES THE MAIN TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN A BIT THROUGH MID WEEK. THE W-SW FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE NW AS TROUGH AXIS SLIPS OFF THE COAST WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO MAKE IT INTO AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND EXPECT MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE MAIN FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE MID WEEK WHICH WILL HELP KEEP SEA BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND STEER ANY SHWRS/TSTMS TOWARD THE COAST. BASICALLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER BUT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY MAINTAINING A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OVERALL. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL RETREAT BACK WEST AND DEEPEN COME LATE THURS THROUGH SAT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL PRODUCE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND GREATER CHC OF PCP ONCE AGAIN LATE THURS INTO FRI. TROUGHING ALOFT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD PUSH TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER BUT A STRONGER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND DRIER SUNNIER WEATHER MID WEEK WILL HELP WARM TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TUES AND WED. 850 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SPIKE UP WITH PEAK ON WED. CLOUDS AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER LATE THURS THROUGH SAT WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN SOME WITH TUES AND WED BEING WARMEST DAYS. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 06Z...WILL INCLUDE TEMPO TSRA AT KLBT AND KFLO TIL 07/08Z RESPECTIVELY. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THESE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AT ALL THE TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF INTO THE EVENING HOURS... ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 5 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1100 PM SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN AT A STEADY 15 TO 20 KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. SIG SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE COMPRISED OF A SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE AT 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS...AND AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FT ESE GROUND SWELL AT 12 SECOND PERIODS. THE SHORT PERIOD SCEC FOR THE ILM NC WATERS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE ON MONDAY BUT UP ABOUT A CATEGORY INTO TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS QUITE COAST-PARALLEL AND SO A CONSIDERABLE NEARSHORE VS OFFSHORE RANGE IN SEAS MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SINCE A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATELY STRONG SWRLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC. SCEC HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS FOR PART OF THE VALID PERIOD. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER INLAND CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH MID WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW REACHING A MORE SOLID 15 KTS AND UP TO 20 KTS AT TIMES. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT TUES WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 5 FT AT TIMES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #530060 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:06 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 400 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE ON A WEAK FRONT SITS ASTRIDE THE DELAWARE NEW JERSEY COAST TODAY. THEN FROM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA... DRAWING THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL FRONT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND KEEP US IN A WARM HUMID SUMMER PATTERN ALL OF THIS COMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO WHEEL AWAY TOWARDS OUR NORTHEAST. THIS IS KEEPING A FEW SHOWERS GOING TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA AND AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH IT WILL DRAG THESE SHOWERS WITH IT. WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR ZONES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND ALLOW THE COLUMN TO DRY OUT GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER-80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... WE CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STILL WITH NOT MUCH GRADIENT FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE NICELY TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID-60S WITH DEWPOINTS ABOUT THE SAME. THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AS SOME OF THE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT FOR THE MOST PART NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING DENSE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 500 MB: A GENERALLY WEAK TROUGH WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK PERMITTING AN OVERALL SUMMERY HUMID PATTERN. TEMPS: NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. DEWPOINTS: ON THE LOWER SIDE OF HUMID EARLY /SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB TEMPS/ EARLY THIS WORK WEEK WILL PROBABLY BECOME FAR MORE NOTICEABLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN WE EXPRESS GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN OUR WARMING TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE DAILIES MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WERE BLENDED 00Z NCEP GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS 330PM EDT SATURDAY JULY 28 KPHI FCST. CONFIDENCE ON MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS BELOW AVG. WE SAW THE SWODY3 FOR TUESDAY. ITS AN OVERALL SUMMER PATTERN... MOSTLY RAINFREE BUT WHEN IT RAINS...IT POURS. THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE RETURN SE FLOW LOW CLOUDINESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...POSSIBLY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. WITH ALL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL OFF THE COAST ALL WE HAVE LEFT TO DEAL WITH IS THE REMAINING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF OUR TAF SITES RECEIVED ENOUGH RAIN TODAY THAT A STRATUS DECK WILL FORM AND MORE THAN LIKELY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO LIKELY IN OUR MORE SHELTERED TERMINALS THIS MORNING...MVFR VSBYS. ALL OF THE MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z EVERYWHERE. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY THE OVERALL SURFACE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AT LESS THAN 8 KNOTS. INSTEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH SO OUR INTERIOR TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE A MORE NORTHERLY WIND WHILE CLOSER TO THE COAST IT SHOULD BE MORE NORTHEASTERLY...AGAIN VERY LIGHT WINDS AND VERY HARD TO DEFINE A DIRECTION. DURING THE DAY A STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL FORM AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED MAKING FOR A GOOD VFR FLYING DAY. OUTLOOK... MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CIGS IN THE AFTN BUT MVFR CONDS IN FOG/ST/SC IN THE MORNING HOURS. WED AFTERNOON-THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR. THERE IS CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 15 KT... STARTING OUT S-SELY MON/TUE TRENDING S OR SW WED AND THU. && .MARINE... SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS OUR WATERS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. COULD STILL SEE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING AND THEN OVER OUR NORTHERN WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS PRETTY RELAXED SO WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE AROUND 3 FEET. OUTLOOK... CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SE FLOW MON-TUE TRENDING S-SW WED AND THU. && .HYDROLOGY... THIS PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A COUPLE OF AFTERNOON/EVENINGS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE EXCESSIVE SHORT TERM RAINFALL. PARTS OF SUSSEX...MORRIS AND WARREN COUNTIES IN NJ HAVE GRIDDED 1HR FFG UNDER 1.1 INCHES AND ARE AT FIRST GLANCE...THE MOST VULNERABLE NON URBAN REGIONS. THE PERKIOMEN AT EAST GREENVILLE IN BUCKS COUNTY AND METEDECONK RIVER AT LAKEWOOD IN NORTHERN OCEAN COUNTY RESPONDED TO ACTION BUT BELOW FS YDY-SUNDAY. SO AS WE GRADUALLY RECOVER FROM OUR SHORT TERM RAINFALL DEFICIT...THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING INCREASES. YDYS 012Z/28 46 MEMBER NAEFS AXIS OF 2+ RAINFALL WAS MOST CONFIDENTLY STATED FOR THE DEL VALLEY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ASTRO TIDES ARE INCREASING AS WE HEAD FOR FULL MOON EARLY ON THE 2ND. SOME OF OUR GUIDANCE ON THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IS INDICATING WE MAY RECEIVE THE NECESSARY 1/2 FOOT POSITIVE DEPARTURE NECESSARY TO FORCE STATEMENTS REGARDING POSSIBLE MARGINAL MINOR AT WORST TIDAL INUNDATION FLOODING. && .RIP CURRENTS... ALTHOUGH THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE, AN 11 SECOND WAVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SUNDAY. && .CLIMATE... RERACY AND RERTTN YDY FOR RFALL. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG |
| #530054 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:02 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 354 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY)... VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUING TO HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND POPS A LITTLE HIGHER OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. FOR THE MAJORITY OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...EXPECT THE RIDGE TO KEEP THE STORM COVERAGE FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL. LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)... THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ZONES AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL PROVIDE MAINLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS AND LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR AREAS OF THE PENINSULA. DURING NEXT WEEKEND MOISTURE WILL BE FILLING BACK IN OVER THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS NORTH OVER CENTRAL FL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z THEN AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS CLOUDS AND MOVES INLAND. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 76 92 78 / 30 10 30 20 FMY 93 76 94 76 / 20 10 30 20 GIF 93 74 95 75 / 40 20 40 20 SRQ 91 75 90 78 / 20 10 20 20 BKV 92 70 92 72 / 40 20 30 20 SPG 89 78 91 79 / 30 10 20 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #530053 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:45 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 337 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXITING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... W.V. STLT IMGRY CLRLY SHOWS THE UPPER LVL TROF DEPARTING THE MID ATLC. CLRG SKIES BEHIND. BLV TDA WL BE M SUNNY. TEMPS - ON MOST DAYS THIS MONTH THE ACTUAL HIGHS HV BEEN WARMER THAN MDL PROJECTIONS AND DOUBT THIS WL BE DIFFERENT. E OF THE BLUE RDG HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT ARND 90...SLTLY WARMER IN THE CITIES. W OF I-81 HIGHS WL BE IN THE M80S. AVG TEMPS FOR JUL SO FAR - AS OF YDA THIS IS STILL THE WARMEST ON RECORD AT DCA (84.2 VS. 83.9 LAST YR). BWI IS AT 81.8 FOR THE MONTH...WHICH IS TIED FOR 1ST W/ 1934 AND 2010. FOR THIS JUL IAD IS ALSO #1 ON AN AVG TEMP OF 80.8 (VS. 80.4 LAST YR). && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... BEFORE THE UPR TROF SETS UP OVR THE E DURG THE WK AHD TNGT SHOULD HV HIGH PRES OVR THE CWA. TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...LM70S IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND PTS E. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHRTWV TROF/VORT MAX WILL CROSS RGN ON MON...REINVIGORATING SCT/SHWRS TSTMS ACRS RGN...WITH HIGH CHC POPS IN PLACE. SFC TROF WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH MON NGT/TUE...WITH ASSOCIATED ULVL TROF AXIS NEARLY STATIONARY OVR MID-ATLC. RESULT WILL BE CONT SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS IN TUE...WITH LIKELY POPS BY AFTN ACRS N...WHERE CVRG MAY BE ENHANCED AS ANOTHER M/ULVL DISTURBANCE PASSES WITHIN BROADER ULVL CYCLONIC FLOW. ATTM...MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODEST FCRG AND SHEAR MAY SVR WX UNLIKELY MON. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND BETTER INSTABILITY DURG PEAK HEATING TUE...SO IF SHRTWV TROF IMPACTS RGN DURG AFTN/EVE...STRONG/EVEN SVR TSTMS CUD RESULT. MAXIMA MON/TUE MAINLY BTWN 85-90F...WITH MINIMA ABV NRML...IN M60S-L70S. ULVL TROF AXIS RMN IN VICINITY THRU XTND PERIOD. TSTMS CVRG WILL BE REGULATED BY TIMING/STRENGTH OF MINOR SHRTWV TROFS CROSSING MID-ATLC. CHC POPS TUE NGT INTO SAT. TEMPS SHUD AVG SLIGHTLY ABV NRML...WITH MAXIMA IN U80S/L90S AND MINIMA FROM U60S-M70S. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDS XPCTD AT ALL SITES TDA/TNGT. VFR CONDS PREVAIL FOR BULK OF THE WK...THO MVFR BR PSBL DURG EARLY MRNGS IF BNDRY LYR CAN SATURATE. AT LEAST SCT MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BRING PTNL FOR LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MON THRU FRI. GREATEST CVRG OF CNVCTN MON/TUE AFTNS. && .MARINE... WINDS XPCTD TO BE BLO SCA VALUES TDA/TNGT. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURG AFTN/EVE HOURS. SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE LGT AND ADZYS NOT ANTICIPATED. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ PRODUCTS...WOODY!/KONARIK |
| #530052 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:45 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 333 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO NEW ENGLAND. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEK...WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 330 AM UPDATE...HAVE DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND WITH DEWPOINTS THE SAME...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE LARGELY BEEN REACHED. OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. TODAY...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE THERE IS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW DEGREES SHORT IF THE CLOUD COVER STICKS AROUND...PARTICULARLY ON THE EAST COAST. USED A BLEND OF MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINTS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN SATURDAY...BUT THEY REMAIN IN THE 60S AND IT WILL STILL FEEL HUMID. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... TONIGHT...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE. POPS DIMINISH TO NIL AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS... ALONG WITH THE RAINFALL FROM SATURDAY AND WHATEVER FALLS TODAY... WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODEL DIAGNOSIS... ANOMALOUS H5 RIDGING /POS HEIGHT ANOMALIES/ OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT AND THE DAVIS STRAIGHT SETS THE PRECEDENT FOR CONTINUED TROUGHING /NEG HEIGHT ANOMALIES/ ACROSS THE NERN CONUS. DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NRN CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY TRAPPED BY A MARKED OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN LATITUDES. WITH HEIGHT RISES OVER THE DAVIS STRAIGHT...SUBSEQUENT RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC LENDING TO TROUGHING AND AN ACTIVE WX PATTERN OVER THE NERN CONUS. EVALUATING DETERMINISTIC SOLNS...WHILE MID-UPR LVL PATTERNS ARE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR PER 28/12Z GFS AND 28/0Z ECMWF...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE TO THE ECMWF SOLN WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND SLIGHT MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE WITHIN THE GFS SOLN. NOT ABSOLUTELY SURE THE 28/12Z CANADIAN INITIALIZED WELL. WHILE THE GENERAL MID-UPR LVL PATTERNS AGREE WITH OTHER DETERMINISTIC SOLN OUTCOMES...IT REMAINS THE WEAKER OF THE THREE WITH LESSER PRECIP AMNTS. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... DEPARTING SHRTWV VORT MAX THRU THE BROADER TROF LENDS TO WEAK RIDGING AND SFC ANTICYCLONIC FLOW /WEAK HIGH PRES/ ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. CONSIDERING PREVAILING S/SELY SFC FLOW AND A CONTINUED BROAD TROF WITH CYCLONIC MOTIONS THRU THE MID-UPR LVLS...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. NOT THINKING SEVERE BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS PSBL ESPECIALLY FOR WRN AREAS WHICH WILL HAVE SEEN PRECEDING RAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE SELY ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MARITIME BOUNDARY LYR REGIME ACROSS ERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND THEREBY LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. OVRNGT PDS WILL BE QUIET...PSBLY PATCHY FOG /ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS/ WITH SFC DWPTS RANGING AROUND THE MID 60S. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... A PAIR OF DISTURBANCES WILL INVIGORATE A DEEPENING H5 TROF ACROSS THE RGN WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NEWD AND OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH A WEAK SFC COLD FRNT SLIDING SEWD OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY RGN OF CANADA. LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL SPECIFICS OF WHICH ARE UNCERTAIN. INITIAL ACTIVITY WED MAY PERTAIN TO THE WRN INTERIOR OF THE NERN CONUS...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD OVRNGT INTO THURS. ITS QUITE PSBL S/SELY FLOW AHEAD WILL ACT AS A DETERRENT...FORCING STABLE MARITIME AIR ONSHORE AND KEEPING ACTIVITY AT BAY. REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE...IT IS PERHAPS WITH THE LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND THAT THE BETTER SUB- TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS AND OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. FRIDAY... A SYNOPTIC SITUATION SIMILAR TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY /ALBEIT SHORT/. THOUGH WEAK HIGH PRES IN WAKE OF THE MID-WEEK SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE BROAD TROUGHING AND CYCLONIC FLOW PROVIDE FAVORABLE LIFT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY. BETTER CHCS WILL BE ACROSS THE WRN INTERIOR OF NEW ENGLAND WITH ONSHORE S/SELY FLOW ADVECTING A MORE STABLE MARITIME AIRMASS THEREBY LIMITING CONVECTIVE CHCS. NEXT WEEKEND... A SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRNT IS PSBL FOR SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE LIKELY...AND PER THE 28/0Z ECMWF PSBLY SEVERE. WILL ONLY SPECULATE FOR NOW...LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FCST. THE SYSTEM APPEARS PROGRESSIVE AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF STRONG SHRTWV ENERGY DIGGING SWD OUT OF THE QUASI- STATIONARY LOW OVER THE NRN MARITIMES. DRIER CONDITIONS WOULD FOLLOW BRIEFLY FOR SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH 12-15Z IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SUNDAY BUT EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA AGAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS. KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING THRU TODAY...THEN IFR AGAIN TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING THRU TODAY...SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPS THRU THE DAY TODAY. THEN IFR AGAIN TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SCTD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED...MAINLY IN PROXIMITY AND W OF A N-S LINE OF KORH. WITH ANY WX...TEMPO MVFR-IFR PSBL. S/SELY FLOW PREVAILING. FOG PSBL ALONG THE SE SHORELINE TERMINALS. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE WED INTO THURS. WITH ANY WX... TEMPO MVFR-IFR PSBL. SLY FLOW PREVAILING. FOG PSBL ALONG THE SE SHORELINE TERMINALS. && .MARINE... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH TONIGHT. MOIST AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S AND SE WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002- 003. MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026. NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011- 015. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL |
| #530051 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:44 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .CURRENTLY... MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING (1020 MILLIBARS) STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ITS AXIS WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WESTWARD TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED BEHIND THIS FEATURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. ALOFT...THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS COVERED BY TROUGHING...WITH RIDGES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ORGANIZING UPSTREAM OVER THE CORN BELT. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS KEEPING DEBRIS CLOUDS IN PLACE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR...BUT DOPPLER RADAR SCANS ARE CURRENTLY DEVOID OF RAINFALL ECHOES. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE. ON THE COASTAL WATERS...A SOUTHERLY EVENING WIND SURGE AROUND 15 KNOTS WAS REPORTED AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS...AND MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE REPORTED BY THE NEARSHORE C-MANS. .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH AND SOME LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT SHOULD ACTIVATE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...LEADING TO LIKELY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AND THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...WITH LOWER CHANCES FOUND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...CLOSER TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER AIR ALOFT PERSISTING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LIGHT WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE THUS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT ACTIVITY INITIATING ALONG THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALTAMAHA BASIN LATE THIS MORNING...WITH COVERAGE MAXIMIZING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS OUTFLOWS PROGRESS TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR LATE JULY CLIMATOLOGY. ACTIVITY LOOKS TO FADE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...AND LOWS WILL ALSO FALL TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME VALUES LATE TONIGHT. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF TROUGHING SITUATED OVER GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON MONDAY. WE EXPECT A SIMILAR DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DISPLAY A STRONGER WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AND SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT...AND THUS STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SINCE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPEARS TO ARRIVE IN OUR REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...MORNING SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SEASONABLY HOT RANGE BEFORE CONVECTION INITIATES IN A SIMILAR FASHION TO WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE EXITING OUR REGION...CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT NEAR CLIMO LOWS AND HUMIDITY VALUES ON MONDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN IS PROJECTED FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND TROUGHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS AROUND THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST FLORIDA...WITH LESSER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH. WITH SOME SEABREEZE INTERACTION EACH AFTERNOON...WILL USE MID/HIGH END CHANCE POPS FROM JAX NORTH...WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NE FL. WITH MOPE TROUGHY A PATTERN...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO NUDGE DOWNWARD TOWARD NORMAL VALUES. && .AVIATION... VFR WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME PATCHES OF MVFR BR AT VQQ 09-12...AND SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS AT CRG THROUGH 12Z. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT VCTS FOR THE 06Z TAFS AREA WIDE. WILL LIKELY INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR TS AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MID/LATE AFTN FOR MOST PORTS. CONVECTION WILL DECREASE IN THE EVENING...WITH MAINLY CIRRUS BY MIDNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT NEAR TSTMS. && .MARINE... A RATHER STAGNANT FORECAST IS EXPECTED...FEATURING GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...HIGHLIGHTED BY EVENING SURGES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING CAUTION CRITERIA. FOR NOW...WE WILL LEAVE THE OFFSHORE ZONES BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES SPLIT OUT TO HIGHLIGHT THESE EVENING SURGES...BUT WILL CAP SPEEDS NEAR 15 KNOTS. EXPECT SEAS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL (2 FEET WITH A 12 SECOND PERIOD AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS) WILL KEEP A MODERATE RISK IN PLACE ALONG THE BEACHES...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 94 72 92 71 / 50 40 60 40 SSI 90 76 89 75 / 60 50 60 40 JAX 91 74 90 75 / 60 40 60 40 SGJ 90 75 89 74 / 50 40 50 40 GNV 92 72 90 73 / 50 40 40 30 OCF 92 72 91 72 / 40 30 40 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530050 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:44 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 337 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... TODAY...BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN US DIGGING A LITTLE SOUTHWARD AND UPPER LOW PUSHING WEST ACROSS THE FL STRAITS WILL BOTH ACT TO LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL REDUCE SOME OF THE SUBSIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE SO EXPECT A LITTLE HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTN/EVE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO NICK OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS...AND ALONG WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS...THINK THAT IS WHERE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE. HAVE DRAWN A 30 POP NORTH OF ORLANDO...AND 20 POP ELSEWHERE EXCEPT IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST (10 POP). THERE CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH IN DEEP CONVECTION THAT FORMS. GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...MID 90S INTERIOR AND LOWER 90S COAST WITH TYPICAL HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F FOR LATE JULY. MON-TUE...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN FIXATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. 500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS BETWEEN -6C AND -8C. AFTERNOON/EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL STILL CONTINUE BELOW SEASONAL...THOUGH CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL APPROACH LOW END CHANCE EACH DAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST WITH MIDDLE 90S INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY IN THE 70S. WED-SUN...UPPER TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGHING...HIGH PRESSURE CELLS ALOFT WILL HOLD FIRM SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WEST OF THE AREA CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS STATIONED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH OCCASIONAL WAVERING NORTH-SOUTH...BUT NOT TO ANY GREAT DEGREE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEPEST LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION IS FORECAST WITH CHANCES APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED. STILL JUST MINIMAL CHANGES TO HIGHS AND LOWS IN THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS ESP ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS TO LEE AND DAB BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE... TODAY...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH S/SW FLOW TURNING SE IN THE AFTN NEAR THE COAST. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS TO PUSH OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE CAPE LATE THIS AFTN/EVE. SEAS 1-3 FT. A NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN S/SW WINDS...AROUND 15 KNOTS...EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT OVER THE OPEN ATLC. MON-THU...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA DURING THIS TIME. MAINLY SSW/SW WINDS WITH BACKING OF WINDS TO ESE/SE ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS IN THE AFTERNOON SURROUNDING SEA BREEZE FORMATION. SEA BREEZE FORMATION NORTH OF THE CAPE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR SUPPRESSED COMPLETELY DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE WINDS EACH DAY. WIND SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 8-12 KT RANGE. SEAS AOB 3 FT. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS 10-12 SEC ON MON INTO EARLY TUE FINALLY SHORTEN LATE TUE THRU THU. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL COMPONENT WILL BRING A MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK. STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT BUT OFFSHORE. A FEW OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS MAY AFFECT THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE ATLC WATERS EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 75 92 74 / 30 20 40 30 MCO 94 74 93 74 / 20 10 30 20 MLB 91 75 90 75 / 20 10 20 20 VRB 90 74 90 74 / 10 10 20 20 LEE 93 75 93 75 / 30 20 30 20 SFB 94 76 94 75 / 20 20 30 20 ORL 93 76 94 76 / 20 20 30 20 FPR 88 72 90 74 / 10 10 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530049 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:33 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 332 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A TRUOGH OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXITING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... W.V. STLT IMGRY CLRLY SHOWS THE UPPER LVL TROF DEPARTING THE MID ATLC. CLRG SKIES BEHIND. BLV TDA WL BE M SUNNY. TEMPS - ON MOST DAYS THIS MONTH THE ACTUAL HIGHS HV BEEN WARMER THAN MDL PROJECTIONS AND DOUBT THIS WL BE DIFFERENT. E OF THE BLUE RDG HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT ARND 90...SLTLY WARMER IN THE CITIES. W OF I-81 HIGHS WL BE IN THE M80S. AVG TEMPS FOR JUL SO FAR - AS OF YDA THIS IS STILL THE WARMEST ON RECORD AT DCA (84.2 VS. 83.9 LAST YR). BWI IS AT 81.8 FOR THE MONTH...WHICH IS TIED FOR 1ST W/ 1934 AND 2010. FOR THIS JUL IAD IS ALSO #1 ON AN AVG TEMP OF 80.8 (VS. 80.4 LAST YR). && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... BEFORE THE UPR TROF SETS UP OVR THE E DURG THE WK AHD TNGT SHOULD HV HIGH PRES OVR THE CWA. TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...LM70S IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND PTS E. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHRTWV TROF/VORT MAX WILL CROSS RGN ON MON...REINVIGORATING SCT/SHWRS TSTMS ACRS RGN...WITH HIGH CHC POPS IN PLACE. SFC TROF WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH MON NGT/TUE...WITH ASSOCIATED ULVL TROF AXIS NEARLY STATIONARY OVR MID-ATLC. RESULT WILL BE CONT SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS IN TUE...WITH LIKELY POPS BY AFTN ACRS N...WHERE CVRG MAY BE ENHANCED AS ANOTHER M/ULVL DISTURBANCE PASSES WITHIN BROADER ULVL CYCLONIC FLOW. ATTM...MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODEST FCRG AND SHEAR MAY SVR WX UNLIKELY DURG SHORT TERM. MAXIMA MON/TUE MAINLY BTWN 85-90F...WITH MINIMA ABV NRML...IN M60S-L70S. ULVL TROF AXIS RMN IN VICINITY THRU XTND PERIOD. TSTMS CVRG WILL BE REGULATED BY TIMING/STRENGTH OF MINOR SHRTWV TROFS CROSSING MID-ATLC. CHC POPS TUE NGT INTO SAT. TEMPS SHUD AVG SLIGHTLY ABV NRML...WITH MAXIMA IN U80S/L90S AND MINIMA FROM U60S-M70S. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDS XPCTD AT ALL SITES TDA/TNGT. VFR CONDS PREVAIL FOR BULK OF THE WK...THO MVFR BR PSBL DURG EARLY MRNGS IF BNDRY LYR CAN SATURATE. AT LEAST SCT MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BRING PTNL FOR LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MON THRU FRI. GREATEST CVRG OF CNVCTN MON/TUE AFTNS. && .MARINE... WINDS XPCTD TO BE BLO SCA VALUES TDA/TNGT. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURG AFTN/EVE HOURS. SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE LGT AND ADZYS NOT ANTICIPATED. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ PRODUCTS...WOODY!/SBK |
| #530048 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:33 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 330 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LAST OF CNVTN MOVG OFF THE ERN SHORE RIGHT NOW. REST OF THE NGT THROUGH THE MRNG HRS WILL BE CLR-PCLDY...W/ LO PROB OF FG/STRATUS. INITIAL UPR LVL TROUGH TO SHIFT JUST OFF THE CST TDA. WEAK SFC HI PRES TO DRIFT BY JUST N OF THE RGN...W/ WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING OVR THE ERN PORTION OF THE FA. LACK OF ANY MID/UPR LVL MECHANISM FOR ORGANIZED CNVTN TDA. HEATING COMBINED W/ LCL BNDRYS MAY RESULT IN LIMITED COVERAGE OF STMS. LCL THICKNESS TOOL CONTS TO INDICATE HI TEMPS FM THE U80S TO L90S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... BROAD UPR LVL TROUGH TO RMN OVR THE ERN CONUS THROUGH TUE. SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT TO CROSS THE RGN...W/ AT THE SFC...TROUGHS RMNS NR THE CST AND INLAND. RATHER NEBULOUS WIND PATTERN (TYPICAL FOR LT JULY) AND ANY MID/UPR LVL MECHANISM FOR SUPPORT OF (MNLY DIURNAL) CNVTN RMNG WEAK. GUID SUGGESTS A LTL HIGHER PROB FOR DVLPG CNVTN TUE. OTRW...WILL HAVE MNLY PCLDY W/ CHC POPS (WHICH WILL NOT BE FAR FM CLIMO). LO TEMPS MNLY IN THE U60S TO L70S. HI TEMPS FM THE 80S TO ARND 90F. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... BLOCKING RIDGE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL KEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING THE WEST COAST RIDGE TO FLATTEN AND THUS DEAMPLIFY THE EAST COAST TROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND. IN THE MEANWHILE...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SLGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS NEARLY EVERY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE EACH VORT MAXIMA ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA. THE 28/12Z EURO SOLUTION IS DEEPER AND FURTHER EAST THAN THE 28/12Z GFS...WHICH WOULD PUSH PRECIP MORE OFFSHORE. AFTER WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT PLACING TROUGH AXIS WEST OF THE AREA...WHICH PLACES EASTERN VA IN A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS EACH DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PRECIP WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES) AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL HELP ENHANCE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL IRON OUT THESE DIFFERENCES AS FUTURE MODEL RUNS COME IN. OTHER DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH HANDLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BASED ON SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TROUGH PLACEMENT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY...ECMWF HAS HIGHS MID 80S WHILE MEX IS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. HAVE KEPT CURRENT TREND AND LEFT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THESE HIGHS SO HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL...THERE IS THE POSSIBILTY OF NUISANCE MVFR BR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 09Z-13Z THIS MORNING. OTW...LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS LATE. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH ON MONDAY. NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...KEEPING TSTM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. && .EQUIPMENT... AKQ RADAR REMAINS DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO MECHANICAL PROBLEMS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB |
| #530047 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:33 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 320 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...BRINGING AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS OVERHEAD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1100 PM SATURDAY...WILL ONLY INDICATE A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION DURING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE CONVECTION UPSTREAM DROPPING ESE WILL AFFECT THIS AREA. ITS SEVERITY WILL DIMINISH SOME AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE WHICH WAS AIDED BY OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS CONVECTION B4 MAKING IT TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA. CURRENT MIN FORECAST AOK WITH ONLY TWEAKS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RAIN-COOLED AIR. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE MID LEVELS THE TROUGH WILL BE QUITE WEAK THIS FAR SOUTH AS THE MAIN VORT CUTS JUST SOUTH OF THE NATION`S CAPITAL. ADDITIONALLY THE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO JUST OFFSHORE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND JUST SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. THE GFS HAS ANOTHER VORT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND COULD CONCEIVABLY NECESSITATE A BUMP IN POPS AWAY FROM JUST THE COAST AS MENTIONED EARLIER. LIKE THE WRF THOUGH THE GFS AGREES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE CHANNEL. TUESDAY MAY TURN A BIT MORE ACTIVE. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRENGTHENING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE WRF MORESO IN DEGREE. ASSUMING THAT WHAT COMES TO PASS WILL SHOW RAIN CHANCES/TSTM COVERAGE RISE HIGHER INTO CHANCE RANGE. TEMPS MONDAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL AND A FEW DEGREES LOWER DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH AMPLIFYING IT AT TIMES. AS ONE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUES THE MAIN TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN A BIT THROUGH MID WEEK. THE W-SW FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE NW AS TROUGH AXIS SLIPS OFF THE COAST WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO MAKE IT INTO AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND EXPECT MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE MAIN FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE MID WEEK WHICH WILL HELP KEEP SEA BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND STEER ANY SHWRS/TSTMS TOWARD THE COAST. BASICALLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER BUT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY MAINTAINING A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OVERALL. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL RETREAT BACK WEST AND DEEPEN COME LATE THURS THROUGH SAT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL PRODUCE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND GREATER CHC OF PCP ONCE AGAIN LATE THURS INTO FRI. TROUGHING ALOFT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD PUSH TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER BUT A STRONGER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND DRIER SUNNIER WEATHER MID WEEK WILL HELP WARM TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TUES AND WED. 850 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SPIKE UP WITH PEAK ON WED. CLOUDS AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER LATE THURS THROUGH SAT WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN SOME WITH TUES AND WED BEING WARMEST DAYS. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 06Z...WILL INCLUDE TEMPO TSRA AT KLBT AND KFLO TIL 07/08Z RESPECTIVELY. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THESE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AT ALL THE TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF INTO THE EVENING HOURS... ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 5 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1100 PM SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN AT A STEADY 15 TO 20 KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. SIG SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE COMPRISED OF A SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE AT 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS...AND AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FT ESE GROUND SWELL AT 12 SECOND PERIODS. THE SHORT PERIOD SCEC FOR THE ILM NC WATERS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE ON MONDAY BUT UP ABOUT A CATEGORY INTO TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS QUITE COAST-PARALLEL AND SO A CONSIDERABLE NEARSHORE VS OFFSHORE RANGE IN SEAS MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SINCE A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATELY STRONG SWRLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC. SCEC HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS FOR PART OF THE VALID PERIOD. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER INLAND CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH MID WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW REACHING A MORE SOLID 15 KTS AND UP TO 20 KTS AT TIMES. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT TUES WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 5 FT AT TIMES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #530046 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:33 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 226 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST LEADING TO DRYER CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z MON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA THROUGH 12Z MON. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. PWATS RANGE FROM 1.7 INCHES TO THE WEST AND 2.1 INCHES TO THE EAST. TO THE WEST SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE RATES ARE NOTED DUE TO THE DRYER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. TO THE NORTH WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA WITH LITTLE TO NO AFFECT TO THE AFTERNOON TEMPS. THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS MORE TO THE WEST AND NORTH DUE TO THE DRIER/BETTER LAPSE RATES AND HEAVY RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT. 32/EE THE WET MICROBURST RISK FOR TODAY IS MODERATE. FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF AXIS REMAINS NEAR THE EAST COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF PROMOTING A MAINLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES A LIGHT DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT DESPITE THIS POTENTIALLY DRYING FLOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM INITIALLY 1.8 TO 2 INCHES TO NEAR 2.2 INCHES BY TUESDAY AS BETTER MOISTURE IS WRAPPED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL SEE THE SEA BREEZE INITIATE SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS PRESENT...THEN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH IMPROVED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PROLIFIC LIGHTNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL INCREASE TO 100-106 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON TUESDAY IN THE 100-107 RANGE AND NEARING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME SPOTS ON TUESDAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. /29 && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE LONGWAVE TROF ORIENTED GENERALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND ALLOWS FOR UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MAINTAINS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE INITIATING SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED OVER THE AREA...NEAR 2.2 INCHES OR ABOUT 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL IMPACT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 100-106 RANGE EACH DAY. /29 && .MARINE...SFC RIDGE MAINTAINS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS OFF TO THE NE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF AL AND MS COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG WITH GOOD AFTERNOON HEATING INLAND RESULTS IN A MODERATE SW FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. GENERALLY A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SEAS MOSTLY AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH FORECAST PD...POSSIBLY BUILDING TO 3 FEET AT TIMES EACH AFTERNOON MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. BAYS AND INLAND WATERWAYS A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32//EE && .FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS IN AREAS WHERE RAINS FELL THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. /29 && .AVIATION...[12Z ISSUANCE]...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z MON. LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOSTLY A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. 32/EE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 95 75 94 75 / 20 20 30 20 PENSACOLA 93 78 93 79 / 30 20 40 20 DESTIN 88 79 87 79 / 40 20 50 20 EVERGREEN 97 72 95 73 / 30 20 40 20 WAYNESBORO 98 72 97 73 / 20 10 20 20 CAMDEN 98 70 96 73 / 20 10 20 20 CRESTVIEW 96 72 93 73 / 30 20 50 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530045 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:00 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 257 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD IN FOR MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... WILL START THE DAY WITH FOG AND STRATUS WHICH WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE. AN AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SCRAPE ALONG THE COAST AS THE SFC LOW TREKS NE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. AN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST THRU SRN NY STATE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF US...HOWEVER AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST AND WITH A LITTLE SFC HEATING EXPECT AFTN THUNDERSHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THEY WILL SCATTERED AND NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL GET ONE BUT DO HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... SKIE WILL CLEAR TONIGHT BUT THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP. TEMPS WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. FOR MONDAY ANY FOG WILL LIFT LEAVING A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH PTLY CLDY CONDITIONS AND WARM. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE GFS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WAVE AFTER WAVE AT 500MB PRODUCING NEARLY CONSTANT TROUGHING AT 500 MB THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH MAY BE OVERDOING THINGS A LITTLE BIT...AND HAVE THEREFORE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO 12Z EURO...WHICH IS BETTER...BUT WOULD STILL PUT US IN AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE EURO WOULD FOCUS ON 2 DECENT WAVES MOVING THROUGH...AROUND WED...AND AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST...SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND....AND HAVE FOCUSED THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS AROUND THESE 2 EVENTS. OTHERWISE...HAVE PLAYED THINGS CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR POPS...WITH SLT CHC POPS THRU THE WEEKEND...ONLY BRINGING THE MTNS UP TO CHC POPS DURING THE DAYS. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD LOOK RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AND TDS WILL RUN ON THE HUMID SIDE. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...MVFR TO IFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IN FOG AND STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE IN FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS. LONG TERM...MON NIGHT THRU THU WILL SEE PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS. SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ON WED...AND TUE NIGHT WILL BE THE BEST CHC FOR VLY FOG. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... SPECIAL NOTE: COMMUNICATIONS CIRCUIT STILL OUT AT KRKD AND KLEW. TAF FOR KRKD WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE "AMD NOT SKED" UNTIL COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS ARE RESOLVED. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE NO ESTIMATE OF WHEN A RETURN TO SERVICE IS EXPECTED. GRAY MAINE /KGYX/ RADAR DATA WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE DUAL POLARIZATION RADAR INSTALLATION AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SITE IN GRAY MAINE IS IN PROGRESS. DURING THE INSTALLATION AND FOLLOW UP TESTING OF THIS NEW EQUIPMENT... RADAR DATA WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE. THIS COULD TAKE UP TO TEN DAYS TO COMPLETE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... |
| #530044 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:42 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 830 PM HST SAT JUL 28 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...THANKS TO PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE A BIT TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS MOVES BY IN THE TRADES. && .DISCUSSION... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR LOCAL WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND EQUATORIAL LOW PRESSURE IS SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO SUPPORT 20 TO 25 MPH TRADE WINDS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS...JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD IN THE WINDIER CHANNELS. A STRONG INVERSION NEAR 8300 FEET CAPS DEEP CONVECTION...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AS THE TRADES PUSH ACROSS WINDWARD MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITHIN AN AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...LIKELY SPREADING WETNESS LEEWARD. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY AS THE CLOUD AREA PASSES WEST OF THE ISLANDS. TRADE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST ENOUGH TO BOOST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CHANNELS AND WATERS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL RUN WEAKENS THIS FEATURE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN...SO IT IS POSSIBLE NO WIND BOOST WILL OCCUR WHEN THE TIME ARRIVES. WINDS ARE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL NOW...SO WE WILL KEEP THIS WIND INCREASE IN OUR FORECAST PACKAGE FOR NOW GIVEN THE SMALL CHANGE NEEDED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. GFS ALSO BRINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TO THE EASTERN ISLANDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE WEAK TROUGH PASSES BY. HOWEVER...PREVIOUS TROUGHS PASSING SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS DID NOT AFFECT US AS STRONGLY AS MODELS SUGGESTED AT THE TIME...AND THE SAME MAY OCCUR THIS TIME. USING THE SAME RATIONALE AS FOR THE FORECAST WIND BOOST...WE WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE INCREASE IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR NOW. && .AVIATION... ISOL MVFR CIGS WILL BE CONFINED TO WINDWARD SLOPES WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING AT MOST TERMINALS. AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS RIDING ALONG THE TRADE FLOW WILL MOVE ASHORE THIS EVENING AND SPREAD UP THE ISLAND CHAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF MVFR CIGS ON WINDWARD SLOPES AS THE CLOUD BAND MOVES IN...POSSIBLY REQUIRING AN AIRMET SIERRA SERIES FOR MT OBSC. && .MARINE... WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER THE USUAL WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. A DECISION ON WHETHER TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS WILL BE MADE WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE. A MODERATE SIZE SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN ON MONDAY...PEAK ON TUESDAY...THEN LOWER SLOWLY ON WEDNESDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ |
| #530043 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:38 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 232 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH NAM ANALYSIS SHOWED A TUTT LOW OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS...WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TEXAS...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS...WITH ANOTHER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STRETCHING TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR THE LAKE...AND A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. SO FOR TODAY...LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...ESPECIALLY EAST...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE (SUBSIDENCE) AND DRY AIR FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. PWATS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO MOSTLY DRY FOR TODAY...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SO MAINLY DRY AND HAZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE METRO AREAS AND THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 100-105F...HIGHEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AREA OF MOISTURE MOVING WESTWARD AROUND THE BASE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE DUST IS ALSO EXPECTED TO START CLEARING SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG EAST COAST METRO AREAS OVERNIGHT...FOR FORT LAUDERDALE SOUTHWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT WILL MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST TOWARDS WESTERN CUBA ON MONDAY...WITH LESS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. SO WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY. THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR FOR TUESDAY...EXCEPT THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MORE TYPICAL ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS PWATS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...WITH SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY MOSTLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTERWARDS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. PWATS AOA 2 INCHES WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EXTENDED...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AOA NORMAL. && .AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SRLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AROUND THE APF SITE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS. OTHERWISE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS TODAY. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS IN ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 90 77 90 77 / 10 10 20 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 90 78 90 78 / 10 20 20 10 MIAMI 91 78 90 78 / 10 20 20 10 NAPLES 90 77 91 76 / 10 10 20 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530042 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 224 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONT OR TROF WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST TO THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY...UPR TRF THAT PRODUCE THE CONVECTION LAST EVENING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE COAST TODAY. THIS WILL SHIFT AXIS OF BEST FORCING AND LIFT TO NEAR OR EAST OF THE CST THIS AFTN. THINK CVRG OF CONVECTION WILL BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY AND LOWERED POPS A BIT ESPCLY INLAND WHERE PRECIP WTR VALUES DROP TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. SHLD SEE ENOUGH SUN FOR HIGHS CPL DGRS EITHER SIDE OF 90. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY...THE UPR TRF WILL BEGIN TO SHARPEN A BIT LATE AS MORE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS COMBINED WITH AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE NEAR THE CST WILL LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION IMD CST WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY INLAND. TEMPS AGAIN WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO UPR 70S BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 215 AM SUN...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH AN UPPER TROF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...BUT NOT ON THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF EACH WAVE. AT THE SURFACE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC WITH A LEESIDE TROF OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE. THE RESULT WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL LIMIT POPS TO 50% OR LOWER. FOR LATE WEEK WILL LEAVE POPS AT SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER RANGE FCST. WITH DECREASED THICKNESS/THERMAL TROF...HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL THRU MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH DEWPTS WILL RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S...HIGHEST BEACHES WHERE WATER TEMPS NOW IN LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 215 AM SUN...OUTSIDE OF SOME POSS PATCHY FOG THRU DAYBREAK EXPECT MAINLY VFR INTO EARLY AFTN. SOME SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVENING MAINLY CLOSE TO CST WITH LCL REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS. MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT WILL BE E OF TAFS WITH AGAIN SOME PATCHY FOG/ST POSS LATE. LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 215 AM SUN...UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS BY DAY...AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 215 AM SUN...OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION HAS SPREAD OVER ALL BUT OUTER WTRS WITH MAINLY LIGHT W FLOW IN ITS WAKE. CURRENT GUSTY SW WINDS WELL OFFSHR EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS WELL TOWARD DAYBREAK. SYNOPTIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SW AOB 15 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS POSS NEAR CONVECTION. SEAS OF 5 FT AT DIAMOND BUOY CURRENTLY SHLD SUBSIDE TO 4 FT WITH MOST NEAR SHORE WTRS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT. LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 215 AM SUN...12Z/28 ECMWF AND 00Z GFS/NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER AROUND TUESDAY WITH WINDS/SEAS COMING UP TO SMALL CRAFT. ECMWF/NAM ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT KEEPING CONDITIONS BELOW SCA SO FORECAST WILL TREND IN THAT DIRECTION. DID NOT USE 00Z WAVEWATCH SINCE IT IS BASED OFF THE GFS AND USED SWAN INSTEAD...KEEPING SEAS AT OR BELOW 5 FEET. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF |
| #530041 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:30 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 221 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE LAST FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...BUT HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THROUGH OVERNIGHT, LIKELY BECOMING STALLED OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE...BUT PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE IN THIS AIRMASS TO WARRANT CARRYING SOME LOW RAIN CHCS INTO THE LATE NIGHT/AFTER MIDNIGHT HOURS FOR SOME LINGERING SHRAS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. LOWS U60S-M70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER TROUGH AXIS DAMPENS AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. NO REAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF NOTE TO CROSS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY, AND THAT WL LIKELY BRING A DRIER AND MUCH QUIETER DAY WEATHERWISE, ESPECIALLY OUT WEST OF I-95 IN THE PIEDMONT. GIVEN A LACK OF SUPPORT UPSTREAM TO INITIATE SUBSTANTIVE CONVECTION, MORE SUBTLE LOCAL EFFECTS SUCH AS LOCAL SEABREEZE AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE MORE OF THE FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRAS/TSTMS SUNDAY. ACCORDINGLY, HV CONTINUED GOING SLIGHT CHC/LOW END CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING, WITH HIGHEST CHCS ALONG COASTAL ZONES. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL YIELDS HIGHS IN THE U80S NORTH TO L90S, WHICH JIVES WELL WITH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE OUTPUT. EARLY MORNING LOWS MONDAY IN THE U60S- L70S. HIGH SLIDES INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY, BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. THIS ALLOWS WINDS TO VEER TO MORE OF AN E-SE COMPONENT MONDAY, BECOMING S/SW TUESDAY/TUESDAY NGT. MEANWHILE, A SERIES OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDE NW FLOW ALOFT AS THEY SLIDE DOWN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY/TUESDAY. DEEP LYR BULK SHEAR ONCE AGAIN REMAINS RATHER ANEMIC (<20KT) BOTH DAYS OVER THE LOCAL AREA, SO CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE PULSY AND RATHER DISORGANIZED IN NATURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, THOUGH STORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE SUB-SEVERE, SOME STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WILL CARRY ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CHC POPS EACH DAY. ONE ITEM FOR LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR WILL BE WITH UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY, AND THE RESULTANT ISSUES THAT WOULD CROP UP WRT THE TEMP/SKY FORECAST FOR TUE/WED. WHILE SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS KNOCKING TEMPS BELOW CLIMO DURING THIS PERIOD, AM A BIT HESITANT TO DO SO JUST YET. HIGHS U80S-L90S. LOWS L-M70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... BLOCKING RIDGE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL KEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING THE WEST COAST RIDGE TO FLATTEN AND THUS DEAMPLIFY THE EAST COAST TROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND. IN THE MEANWHILE...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SLGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS NEARLY EVERY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE EACH VORT MAXIMA ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA. THE 28/12Z EURO SOLUTION IS DEEPER AND FURTHER EAST THAN THE 28/12Z GFS...WHICH WOULD PUSH PRECIP MORE OFFSHORE. AFTER WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT PLACING TROUGH AXIS WEST OF THE AREA...WHICH PLACES EASTERN VA IN A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS EACH DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PRECIP WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES) AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL HELP ENHANCE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL IRON OUT THESE DIFFERENCES AS FUTURE MODEL RUNS COME IN. OTHER DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH HANDLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BASED ON SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TROUGH PLACEMENT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY...ECMWF HAS HIGHS MID 80S WHILE MEX IS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. HAVE KEPT CURRENT TREND AND LEFT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THESE HIGHS SO HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF SE VA THROUGH 09Z BUT SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM ALL TERMINALS. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL...THERE IS THE POSSIBLITY OF NUISANCE MVFR BR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 09Z-13Z THIS MORNING. A SFC BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. && .MARINE... AS SFC LOW BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDED SPEEDS UP SLIGHTLY...SO FOLLOWED BY INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WATERS INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...SFC GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF SHORE. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING SCA CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WATERS. SFC/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SCA CONDITIONS ATTM. && .EQUIPMENT... AKQ RADAR IS AGAIN EXPERIENCING MECHANICAL PROBLEMS AND IS DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR/MAM |
| #530040 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 207 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO NEW ENGLAND. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEK...WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 2 AM UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED POPS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH SHOWERS MOVING OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. OTHERWISE...MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND WITH DEWPOINTS THE SAME...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE LARGELY BEEN REACHED. OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY AND OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. CONTINUE LIKELY POPS IN THE INTERIOR WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE MORE STABLE EAST. CHANCE POPS SUNDAY EVENING DIMINISH TO NIL DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL DIMINISH A FEW DEGREES BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE 60S. WITH LIGHT WIND AND A HISTORY OF RAIN...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME OF IT MAY BE DENSE. TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF MOS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODEL DIAGNOSIS... ANOMALOUS H5 RIDGING /POS HEIGHT ANOMALIES/ OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT AND THE DAVIS STRAIGHT SETS THE PRECEDENT FOR CONTINUED TROUGHING /NEG HEIGHT ANOMALIES/ ACROSS THE NERN CONUS. DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NRN CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY TRAPPED BY A MARKED OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN LATITUDES. WITH HEIGHT RISES OVER THE DAVIS STRAIGHT...SUBSEQUENT RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC LENDING TO TROUGHING AND AN ACTIVE WX PATTERN OVER THE NERN CONUS. EVALUATING DETERMINISTIC SOLNS...WHILE MID-UPR LVL PATTERNS ARE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR PER 28/12Z GFS AND 28/0Z ECMWF...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE TO THE ECMWF SOLN WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND SLIGHT MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE WITHIN THE GFS SOLN. NOT ABSOLUTELY SURE THE 28/12Z CANADIAN INITIALIZED WELL. WHILE THE GENERAL MID-UPR LVL PATTERNS AGREE WITH OTHER DETERMINISTIC SOLN OUTCOMES...IT REMAINS THE WEAKER OF THE THREE WITH LESSER PRECIP AMNTS. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... DEPARTING SHRTWV VORT MAX THRU THE BROADER TROF LENDS TO WEAK RIDGING AND SFC ANTICYCLONIC FLOW /WEAK HIGH PRES/ ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. CONSIDERING PREVAILING S/SELY SFC FLOW AND A CONTINUED BROAD TROF WITH CYCLONIC MOTIONS THRU THE MID-UPR LVLS...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. NOT THINKING SEVERE BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS PSBL ESPECIALLY FOR WRN AREAS WHICH WILL HAVE SEEN PRECEDING RAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE SELY ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MARITIME BOUNDARY LYR REGIME ACROSS ERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND THEREBY LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. OVRNGT PDS WILL BE QUIET...PSBLY PATCHY FOG /ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS/ WITH SFC DWPTS RANGING AROUND THE MID 60S. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... A PAIR OF DISTURBANCES WILL INVIGORATE A DEEPENING H5 TROF ACROSS THE RGN WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NEWD AND OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH A WEAK SFC COLD FRNT SLIDING SEWD OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY RGN OF CANADA. LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL SPECIFICS OF WHICH ARE UNCERTAIN. INITIAL ACTIVITY WED MAY PERTAIN TO THE WRN INTERIOR OF THE NERN CONUS...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD OVRNGT INTO THURS. ITS QUITE PSBL S/SELY FLOW AHEAD WILL ACT AS A DETERRENT...FORCING STABLE MARITIME AIR ONSHORE AND KEEPING ACTIVITY AT BAY. REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE...IT IS PERHAPS WITH THE LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND THAT THE BETTER SUB- TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS AND OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. FRIDAY... A SYNOPTIC SITUATION SIMILAR TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY /ALBEIT SHORT/. THOUGH WEAK HIGH PRES IN WAKE OF THE MID-WEEK SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE BROAD TROUGHING AND CYCLONIC FLOW PROVIDE FAVORABLE LIFT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY. BETTER CHCS WILL BE ACROSS THE WRN INTERIOR OF NEW ENGLAND WITH ONSHORE S/SELY FLOW ADVECTING A MORE STABLE MARITIME AIRMASS THEREBY LIMITING CONVECTIVE CHCS. NEXT WEEKEND... A SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRNT IS PSBL FOR SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE LIKELY...AND PER THE 28/0Z ECMWF PSBLY SEVERE. WILL ONLY SPECULATE FOR NOW...LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FCST. THE SYSTEM APPEARS PROGRESSIVE AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF STRONG SHRTWV ENERGY DIGGING SWD OUT OF THE QUASI- STATIONARY LOW OVER THE NRN MARITIMES. DRIER CONDITIONS WOULD FOLLOW BRIEFLY FOR SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH 12-15Z IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SUNDAY BUT EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA AGAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS. KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING THRU TODAY...THEN IFR AGAIN TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING THRU TODAY...SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPS THRU THE DAY TODAY. THEN IFR AGAIN TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SCTD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED...MAINLY IN PROXIMITY AND W OF A N-S LINE OF KORH. WITH ANY WX...TEMPO MVFR-IFR PSBL. S/SELY FLOW PREVAILING. FOG PSBL ALONG THE SE SHORELINE TERMINALS. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE WED INTO THURS. WITH ANY WX... TEMPO MVFR-IFR PSBL. SLY FLOW PREVAILING. FOG PSBL ALONG THE SE SHORELINE TERMINALS. && .MARINE... MODERATE CONFIDENCE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOIST AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S AND SE WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002- 003. MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026. NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011- 015. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL |
| #530039 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 157 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...BRINGING AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS OVERHEAD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1100 PM SATURDAY...WILL ONLY INDICATE A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION DURING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE CONVECTION UPSTREAM DROPPING ESE WILL AFFECT THIS AREA. ITS SEVERITY WILL DIMINISH SOME AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE WHICH WAS AIDED BY OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS CONVECTION B4 MAKING IT TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA. CURRENT MIN FORECAST AOK WITH ONLY TWEAKS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RAIN-COOLED AIR. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...MODELS AGREE ON THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT STILL DIFFER ON THE DETAILS THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BECOMES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE 100+ DEGREE HEAT EARLIER THIS WEEK WILL BE REPLACED BY AN BROAD UPPER TROUGH. AT LEAST TWO SHORTWAVES ARE INVOLVED IN DIGGING THIS TROUGH...ONE IS MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NOW AND A SECOND WILL ARRIVE SOMETIME MONDAY. A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC/SC SANDHILLS REGION SUNDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD RETREAT NORTH DURING THE DAY AND WEAKEN. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ERODE ANY MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND OPEN THE ATMOSPHERE UP FOR CONVECTION ALMOST ANYTIME DAY OR NIGHT GIVEN A SUFFICIENTLY WARM AND MOIST 850 MB LAYER PLUS STRONGER DAYTIME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. I`VE TRIED TO FOCUS OUR HIGHEST POPS AROUND THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY (BOTH AFTERNOONS NEAR THE COAST) AND AROUND THE ARRIVAL OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES. THE GFS AND NAM MODELS DIFFER WITH THEIR TIMING OF MONDAY`S SHORTWAVE: THE GFS IS EARLIER AND ACTUALLY IMPLIES THERE COULD BE A BLOSSOM OF NOCTURNAL MARINE CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THAT SPREADS INLAND MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE NAM IS LATER WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND IMPLIES MORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HPC`S MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION INDICATES THERE WERE INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE 12Z NAM (MOISTURE RELATED) AND THE 12Z GFS (CONVECTIVE- FEEDBACK RELATED) WHICH CALLS EITHER OF THOSE TWO SOLUTIONS INTO QUESTION. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS CLOSER TO THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION REGARDLESS. EITHER WAY...INDICATIONS ARE THAT RAINFALL CHANCES WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA... ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED... BUT ISOLATED WET DOWNBURSTS COULD OCCUR IN ANY OF OUR DEEP CONVECTION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL DAYTIME CLOUD COVER EXPECTED HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH 88-93 BOTH DAYS...WARMEST WEST OF I-95 AND COOLEST AT THE BEACHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO MODERATE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES: 71-75 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH AMPLIFYING IT AT TIMES. AS ONE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUES THE MAIN TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN A BIT THROUGH MID WEEK. THE W-SW FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE NW AS TROUGH AXIS SLIPS OFF THE COAST TUES INTO WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO MAKE IT INTO AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND EXPECT MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE MAIN FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE MID WEEK WHICH WILL HELP KEEP SEA BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND STEER ANY SHWRS/TSTMS TOWARD THE COAST. BASICALLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER BUT MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY MAINTAINING A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OVERALL. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL RETREAT BACK WEST AND DEEPEN COME LATE THURS THROUGH SAT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL PRODUCE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND GREATER CHC OF PCP ONCE AGAIN LATE THURS INTO FRI. TROUGHING ALOFT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD PUSH TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER BUT A STRONGER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND DRIER SUNNIER WEATHER MID WEEK WILL HELP WARM TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TUES AND WED. 850 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SPIKE UP WITH PEAK ON WED. CLOUDS AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER LATE THURS THROUGH SAT WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN SOME WITH TUES AND WED BEING WARMEST DAYS. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 06Z...WILL INCLUDE TEMPO TSRA AT KLBT AND KFLO TIL 07/08Z RESPECTIVELY. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THESE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AT ALL THE TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF INTO THE EVENING HOURS... ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 5 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1100 PM SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN AT A STEADY 15 TO 20 KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. SIG SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE COMPRISED OF A SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE AT 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS...AND AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FT ESE GROUND SWELL AT 12 SECOND PERIODS. THE SHORT PERIOD SCEC FOR THE ILM NC WATERS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE RETREATING TO THE NORTH AND WEAKENING MONDAY. FRONTS ARE USUALLY BY NATURE ALSO TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE...AND THE PRESSURE PATTERN AROUND THIS TROUGH WILL BACK OUR WINDS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY THAN WE`VE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING WE`LL ALSO SEE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF STORMS AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-4 FT...HIGHEST JUST EAST OF CAPE FEAR. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER INLAND CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH MID WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW REACHING A MORE SOLID 15 KTS AND UP TO 20 KTS AT TIMES. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT TUES WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 5 FT AT TIMES. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...PERSISTENT HEAT THIS MONTH IS THREATENING TO TIE OR BREAK MANY LONG-STANDING RECORDS FOR TEMPERATURE IN WILMINGTON. THE CLIMATE RECORD IN WILMINGTON EXTENDS BACK 138 YEARS TO 1874. HERE ARE SOME RECORDS WE`RE WATCHING CLOSELY: - AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR ANY MONTH: THROUGH JULY 27TH THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 2012 HAS BEEN 85.2 DEGREES...4.2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE CURRENT RECORD FOR THE WARMEST CALENDAR MONTH EVER IN WILMINGTON`S HISTORY IS 84.1 DEGREES SET IN JULY 1993. IT APPEARS VERY LIKELY WE WILL SMASH THIS RECORD BY OVER HALF A DEGREE. - AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ANY MONTH: THROUGH JULY 26TH...94.4 DEGREES. THE CURRENT RECORD FOR ANY CALENDAR MONTH IS 94.0 DEGREES FROM JULY 1993. WITH RELATIVELY COOLER HIGHS FORECAST FOR THE LAST OF THIS MONTH WE MAY HAVE TROUBLE MAINTAINING THIS RECORD PACE. - AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURE FOR ANY MONTH: THROUGH JULY 26TH...76.0 DEGREES. THE CURRENT RECORD FOR ANY CALENDAR MONTH IS 74.8 DEGREES FROM JULY 1999. THIS RECORD HAS A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF BEING BROKEN THIS MONTH. - MOST NUMBER OF 80+ DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES IN ANY SINGLE MONTH: THIS ALL-TIME RECORD WAS BROKEN YESTERDAY WITH THE 4TH OCCURRENCE THIS MONTH OF 80+ DEGREE DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES. THE OLD RECORD OF THREE OCCURRENCES IN A SINGLE CALENDAR MONTH HAPPENED IN JULY 202, AUGUST 1999, AND A AUGUST 1980. IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE`LL ADD ANY MORE DAYS TO THIS PARTICULAR RECORD. - MOST NUMBER OF 80+ DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES IN A SINGLE YEAR: THE CURRENT RECORD IS FIVE SET IN 1999. WE`VE OFFICIALLY HAD FOUR THIS YEAR, ALL THIS MONTH. ANY ADDITIONAL 80+ DEGREE NIGHTS THIS YEAR WILL TIE THIS RECORD. ALTHOUGH CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARE EVEN IN JULY... 80 DEGREE LOWS CAN STILL OCCUR INTO AUGUST. - MOST NUMBER OF 100+ DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ANY SINGLE MONTH: WITH FRIDAY`S 101 DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURE WE`VE NOW RECORDED FIVE 100+ DEGREE DAYS THIS MONTH...TYING THE ALL-TIME RECORD ESTABLISHED IN JULY 2011. WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FURTHER 100 DEGREE DAYS THIS MONTH. - MOST NUMBER OF 100+ DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN A SINGLE YEAR: FRIDAY`S 101 DEGREE HIGHS TIES THE ALL-TIME RECORD OF SEVEN 100+ DAILY HIGHS SET IN 1952...AND TIED JUST LAST YEAR IN 2011. ANY ADDITIONAL 100+ DEGREE DAYS THIS YEAR WILL BREAK THIS ALL-TIME RECORD. WHY HAS IT BEEN SO HOT IN WILMINGTON THIS MONTH? CONSISTENT WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT THE SEABREEZE FROM PUSHING INLAND AS IT NORMALLY DOES DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS. THIS ALLOWS HOT AIR FROM THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA TO PERSIST IN WILMINGTON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES THE RESULT. BY THE TIME THE SEABREEZE FINALLY ARRIVES IN WILMINGTON DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS IT BRINGS IN VERY HUMID MARINE AIR THAT DOESN`T COOL OFF VERY EFFICIENTLY AT NIGHT. TECHNICIANS RECENTLY CHECKED THE CALIBRATION OF THE ILM ASOS THERMOMETER AND FOUND IT TO BE ACCURATE WITHIN 1 DEGREE WHEN COMPARED TO TWO INDEPENDENT THERMOMETERS. ALTHOUGH HOT TEMPERATURES HAVE OCCURRED IN MYRTLE BEACH AND FLORENCE THIS MONTH AND SOME DAILY RECORDS HAVE BEEN TIED OR BROKEN...THE TEMPERATURES OBSERVED AT THESE TWO SITES ARE NOT THREATENING MONTHLY OR YEARLY RECORDS AS IN WILMINGTON. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #530038 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1245 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...LIGHT SE WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE COASTLINE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY ON SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT THEN INCREASING CLOUDINESS ON SUNDAY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...THE AFTERNOON HEATING IS FIRING OFF SOME ISOLD CONV CELLS NEAR THE WILLACY/CAMERON COUNTY LINE. THESE CELLS ARE MOVING SLOWLY WEST AND APPEAR TO MOVING OUT OF THE HIGHER CAPE VALUES LOCATED NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. SO BELIEVE THAT THIS CONV WILL NOT DEVELOP MUCH AS IT MOVES WEST INTO DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR. THE NAM GUIDANCE MOVES ANOTHER 500 MB VORT MAX OVER DEEP SOUTH TX AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AT THIS POINT THIS VORT MAX DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SO DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONV ACROSS THE LOWER RGV TOMORROW. AN ISOLD AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING CELL DRIVEN BY THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACHING VORT MAX IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH 10 TO 20 POPS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. WILL GO CLOSE TO THE MAV/MET CONSENSUS FOR MINS AND WILL GO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE MAV/MET HIGH TEMPS FOR HIGHS. THE MET IS A LITTLE WETTER VERSUS THE MAV FOR TOMORROW. CONSIDERING HOW THE NAM HANDLED THE LAST VORT MAX MOVING OVER THE REGION AM SCEPTICAL OF SERIOUS CONV CHCS TOMORROW. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS DOWN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST LEADING TO PWATS LOWERING INTO THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE. THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HOT CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...APPROACHING THE MID TRIPLE DIGITS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF FULL MIXING IS REALIZED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...RH VALUES COULD FALL INTO THE LOW 20 PERCENT RANGE AND COUPLED WITH GUSTY WINDS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...THE PGF WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE INTERACT BETWEEN THE INLAND SURFACE TROFFING AND THE OFFSHORE SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE BAY AND GULF CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS OR POSSIBLY PUSHING UP TO NEAR SCEC LEVELS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY IN THE PERIOD BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A THERMAL LOW OVER WESTERN TEXAS BEGINNING TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BE LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN RISING SLIGHTLY AS THE WINDS REACT TO THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM AFOREMENTIONED HIGH-LOW INTERACTION. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530036 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 143 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY MONDAY BEFORE A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS AFFECT THE REGION BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR IMAGES. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. TROUGH/VORT ADVECTION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAS DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...REDEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SCT CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN POPS OVERNIGHT. EARLIER RAIN...HIGH RH AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...MID 60S TO AROUND 70. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST CANADA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW. TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES ARE SIMILAR FOR NOW...HOWEVER...SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH. EITHER WAY WILL UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST BY LATE SUNDAY SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF. AGAIN AT THE SURFACE AN EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AND LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER NAM NUMBERS. BREAK UNTIL LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. WEAK LIFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AS A STRONGER VORT MAX ROTATES THROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH WERE CLOSE. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... PREPARE FOR A CONTINUATION OF WARM HUMID WEATHER ALONG WITH PERIODIC HVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A WELL DEFINED POLAR LOW OVER NORTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE SPINNING AND EJECTING SHORT WAVES SE INTO THE BASE OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WHOSE MEAN POSITION IS WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. FORECASTING WAVE AMPLITUDES...TRACKS AND THEIR TIMING WILL REMAIN VERY DIFFICULT. HOWEVER...EACH WAVE WILL BE PRECEDED BY SCT TO NUMEROUS HVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS. OUR CURRENT WX PATTERN WILL PERSIST AS A WARM HUMID AND UNSTABLE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS OVERHEAD. THE MAIN WX THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH HVY RAIN...FROM MINOR URBAN FLOODING TO FLASH FLOODING. ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ONSHORE FLOW...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT FELL ON SATURDAY... WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECTING MVFR TO IFR CONDS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK. MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON... VFR CONDS EXPECTED. FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON... ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP LATER ON. WILL TEMPO TSTMS IN THE MORNING...THEN WILL INTRODUCE PROB30 GROUPS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE EVENING AND WINDS BECOME L/V. SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .MONDAY...VFR. .TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALY VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL SUB- VFR POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. .THURSDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY FOR MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL BE WEAK AND WINDS AND GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SOME COMPONENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...HOWEVER...SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WIND BECOMES MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN REMAINS INTO THURSDAY. WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY BUILD TO OVER 5 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. ON AVERAGE...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH. THERE MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY STRONGER STORMS. LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A TENTH OR TWO EACH DAY. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... |
| #530035 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 139 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PROPAGATED EASTWARD OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE NEARING CLEARING ALL INLAND COUNTIES...THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ACROSS LAND AREAS HAS GREATLY DECREASED. STILL...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS LAND AREAS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AS AN ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. DID MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO CAPTURE CURRENT TRENDS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE NEEDED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND PLAINS STATES AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNTIED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND PROPAGATE ACROSS THE AREA AS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS TAKE PLACE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING REMAINING THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DECIPHER ONE DAY TO THE NEXT AS MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AFFECTING THE AREA. OVERALL...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...TYPICALLY DURING THE USUAL AFTERNOON HOURS...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOW A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE UNITED STATES STRENGTHEN. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR IS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED CLOUDS TO PERHAPS AT TIMES BROKEN HIGHER CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS MID AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVE HOURS. LATER FORECASTS MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE A LITTLE MORE SPECIFICITY IN THIS REGARD TO INCLUDE TIMING. CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR LOWER SHOULD ANY THUNDERSTORM MOVE OVERHEAD OR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE TERMINAL. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR EXCEPT FOR SHORT-LIVED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS COULD REACH UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH NOCTURNAL SURGING. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #530034 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:44 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 136 AM EDT Sun Jul 29 2012 .NEAR TERM... [Through Tonight] Scattered summertime diurnal convection has diminished this evening, so PoPs can be lowered over most of the area for the remainder of the evening hours. Otherwise, no significant changes are expected to the forecast for tonight. A typical summer night is expected with lows in the low to mid 70s across the area. && .SHORT TERM... [Sunday Through Tuesday] Little change in the large scale pattern is expected on Sunday with upper ridging encompassing a large area from the great basin and Rockies down to the Gulf of Mex. Trough Ewd into extreme WRN Atlc with axis down Ern seaboard. Trough will nudge ewd rest of period with axis lying along or just east of coast keeping forecast area in persistent light NLY flow. TAE Model soundings show PWs will remain at or above 2 inches thru Wed. At surface, with a trough or decaying front likely to be lingering somewhere nearby over the Southeast, we expect to remain in warm sector. The combination of trough to our N and seabreeze development each aftn will maintain a confluent zones, especially south of I-10 and over Big Bend where CAM shows CAPE will exceed 2000 j/kg. This will allow POPs to remain at or just above climo with a fairly widespread convective coverage each day with increasing focus on east half of CWA. POPs will be enhanced by any embedded shortwaves that rotate down ern side of upper ridge which would favor late developing strong to isold storms each day. Will go with 40-60% nw-se POP gradient on Sunday, 20-40% Sunday night, 20-50% nw-se POP gradient on Monday. nil pops Monday night, and 30-40% on Tuesday. Max temps generally in the low 90s in FL and mid 90S N of the border. Apparent temps should remain below heat advisory levels. && .LONG TERM... [Tuesday Night through Saturday] As has been predicted for the past several model cycles, the global models forecast a mean 500 mb trough to remain over the Eastern CONUS through much of this upcoming work week, with perhaps a bit of weakening of this feature by next weekend. Meanwhile, a the western extent of the subtropical surface ridge will remain to our south, providing our forecast area with south to west winds for much of the period. While we expect a fairly strong diurnal signal in terms of thunderstorm activity (i.e. mainly afternoon & evening thunderstorms primarily due to the sea breeze circulation combined with peak heating/destabilization); there remains a possibility that Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) and/or other 500 mb impulses could translate south through our forecast area and generate thunderstorms as well...even during the overnight areas. Our skill at forecasting such features is generally 24 hours or less (if that), so trying to forecast such details in the long that this type of large scale weather pattern can be favorable for southward-propagating MCSs. Why do we keep repeating this in our discussions? Mainly because MCSs can sometimes be associated with an increased risk of severe weather (from damaging wind gusts), and that our rain chances may linger through the entire overnight periods (as opposed to dropping to less than 20% after midnight). Our forecast continues to follow the HPC guidance very closely, except that our temperature forecast is generally a few degrees warmer during the afternoon hours. Overall, we expect near-climo 24-hour PoP & temperatures, except that our overnight PoP is slightly above climo. && .AVIATION... [Through 06z Monday; updated 1:30am EDT] Difficult forecast with respect to fog and low CIGS tonight as not much materialized last night, and there wasn`t much rain at most of the terminals today. However, dewpoints at a few terminals are running a few degrees higher than this time last night. Carried 5SM at ECP 10-12z where slight visibility reduction to 8SM already being reported. Also took VLD down to 700 ft CIG, which would be a similar impact to what occurred last night. The latest thinking is that there should be a fairly high coverage of thunderstorms around the area tomorrow, which may impact usual routes in addition to terminals. Expecting MVFR in the stronger storms. Could see some gusty winds, but confidence is not high enough to include for now. TS wind potential will be re-evaluated for 12z TAF package. && .MARINE... Rather benign conditions on tap for the marine forecast outside of scattered thunderstorms. Winds look to be generally around 10 knots or less through the weekend (on average) with seas 1-2 feet. Moderate risk of rip currents tomorrow along the Panhandle beaches with onshore flow around 10-12 knots expected and surf building close to 2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Relative humidity levels are expected to remain above critical thresholds for the next several days, so red flag conditions are unlikely. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #530033 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:35 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 129 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY THEN MOVE EAST TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO INCREASE PERCENTAGES UP PER THE LATEST RADAR AND SATL TRENDS. THE LATEST NAM AND CANADIAN GEM HAD THIS SET HANDLED WELL. TEMPERATURES NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD AS CLOUDS HAVE HELD LATEST TEMPERATURES UP. FOLLOWED THE LAMP GUIDANCE TO HAVE TEMPERATURES RAISED UP. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHOWERS FIRED UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND ALSO ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM GREENVILLE EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF HOULTON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CURRENTLY AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS PRECIPITATION, TOO, SHOULD WANE A BIT AFTER THE SUNSETS. THINGS THEN GET A BIT COMPLICATED AS MODELS ARE TRYING TO HINT THAT THE 700MB WAVE WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE MAINE COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF A BIT FROM ITS 06Z RUN BUT STILL REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, PLACING ABUNDANT FORCING AND AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST RIGHT UNDER THE CLOSED LOW. MEANWHILE, THE 12Z NAM, 12Z CANADIAN AND 00Z ECMWF SEEM TO FAVOR THE TROUGH REMAINING AN OPEN WAVE AND KEEP THE STRONGEST FORCING AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, OVER THE ATLANTIC ALONG ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY. PWATS ARE RUNNING AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH 700 MB OR SO. AS SUCH, ANY SHOWERS THAT MOVE INTO DOWNEAST AREAS THIS EVENING WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. NORTHERN MAINE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. TONIGHT WILL BE MUGGY DOWNEAST WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S, WHILE THE DRIER AIR NORTH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THE 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW, KEEPING SHOWERS IN THE REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH STAYS NOSED IN ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE, SO THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. WITH THE COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SPREADING OVER THE REGION TOMORROW, THUNDER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. NORTHERN MAINE WILL BE THE WARMEST PART OF THE STATE TOMORROW AS THEY WILL REMAIN CLEAR OF MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S THERE. FURTHER SOUTH, CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES.&&&& && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ANY SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY WITH A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 80 EXCEPT IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST. HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE AS DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S. FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON - MAINLY TO EXTREME WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID 70S RIGHT ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION WHERE THE FRONT STALLS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TEND TO BE MORE EXTENSIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DIURNAL HEATING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AT KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL. THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THROUGH EARLY EVENING, BUT LOWERING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR AFTER 09Z. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, AND THEN IMPROVE THEREAFTER. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS COMBINED WITH PATCHY FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1 TO 3 NM. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS SO NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE POTENTIALLY RISING TO NEAR SCA LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT |
| #530032 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:30 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1227 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER PATCHY BR OR HZ IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE AS HUMIDITY REMAINS HIGH FROM THE RAINS OVER THE PAST EVENING. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF VIS RESTRICTION OUT AT THIS TIME AS TIMING AND PROBABILITY IS LOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY, HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN TIMING, PROBABILITY, AND CHANCE IS LOW AND THEREFORE OMITTED FROM TAFS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012/ UPDATE...NOT EXPECTING THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF MONROE TO MAKE IT TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA BEFORE DISSIPATING. RADAR SHOWING THE REMAINDER OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALREADY DISSIPATED AS ANTICIPATED SO WILL MAKE ONE MORE UPDATE TO LOWER THE POPS TO THE SILENT 10 PERCENTERS. SWEENEY PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012/ UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ERUPTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARE EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH THE SHORT WAVE. WILL LEAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OVERE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 10 PM. LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS WHERE CONVECTION STIRRED INTO THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND LEFT DEW POINTS DRIER THAN PROGGED. SWEENEY PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012/ AVIATION... STORMS IN AND AROUND SE TX AND SRN LA IS AFFECTING SOME TAF LCTNS... AEX IN PARTICULAR FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...VFR WX SHOULD HOLD THROUGH SUNRISE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012/ UPDATE...RAISING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. SWEENEY PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012/ DISCUSSION... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK RIDGING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH ACROSS THE N GULF KEEPING LIGHT SW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SAT/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS C AND SC LA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A REMNANT VORT MAX MOVING SW ACROSS C AND S LA. THUS...KEPT POPS 30-50% ACROSS THIS REGION THRU EARLY EVENING...DIMINISHING LATE THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS COASTAL LA INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AS LINGERING SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO MOVE SW. BY SUN...THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD STRONGER ACROSS N TX/OK...WITH A PREDOMINATE NE FLOW ALOFT OVER SE TX/LA. MORNING LOWS ONLY EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 70S. WITH REMNANT MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT FROM TODAY`S SYSTEM...AND A WEAK SEABREEZE POSSIBLE...LEFT THE INHERITED 20% ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FOR SUN. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGE INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS SE TX/S LA...WITH UPPER 90S TO JUST SHY OF THE CENTURY MARK FURTHER INLAND. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE A FACTOR AGAIN SUN. WITH DEWPTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 70S DURING MAX HEATING...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE IN THE 104-107 RANGE. WITH THE UPPER HIGH NOT EXPECTING TO MOVE MUCH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ONLY A SLIM CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY ACROSS S LA. DML MARINE... SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS WITH SEAS 1-2 FT WILL CONTINUE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DML && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 95 78 94 78 93 / 20 10 10 10 10 KBPT 94 78 93 78 92 / 10 10 10 10 10 KAEX 99 75 99 76 97 / 10 10 10 10 10 KLFT 94 77 94 77 93 / 20 10 10 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530031 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 123 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. IT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 110 AM SUNDAY...CONVECTION INLAND QUICKLY DISSIPATED AND NOW HAVE SOME HEAVIER SHRA NEAR S CST JUST BEHIND OUTFLOW BNDRY. THESE WILL LIKELY SHIFT OFFSHORE SHORTLY AND WILL CARRY ISOLD POP REST OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO UPR 70S/AROUND 80 OBX. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SAT...OVERALL EXPECT A DAY FAIRLY SIMILAR TO SAT WITH LINGERING BOUNDARIES ACROSS EASTERN NC...AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THE EAST COAST. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS AGAIN EXPECTED WITH GOOD INSTABILITY. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD AS UPPER TROF PERSISTS OVER ERN US. TIMING OF REINFORCING SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE CRITICAL FOR TIMING OF PRECIP BUT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN THAT REGARD. FOR NOW WILL FCST HIGH CHANCE POPS (THRU TUESDAY) TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLE...SCALING DOWN TO SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE DURING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL LY UNFAVORABLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING TIME FRAMES. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA COULD OCCUR ALMOST ANY TIME A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND CROSSES REGION. ANY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY...WITH INTERACTIONS ALONG LINGERING INLAND THERMAL...OUTFLOW AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES LEADING TO A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON ANY GIVEN DAY. FOR LATE WEEK WILL LEAVE POPS AT SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER RANGE FCST. WITH DECREASED THICKNESS/THERMAL TROF...HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL THRU MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH DEWPTS WILL RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S...HIGHEST BEACHES WHERE WATER TEMPS NOW IN LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 110 AM SAT...MAINLY VFR REST OF THE NIGHT WITH POSS SOME PATCHY FOG LATE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD. CONT VFR SUNDAY WITH BEST CHC OF SCT TSRA CLOSER TO THE CST. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE TIME WITH SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS. COULD ALSO HAVE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG AND STRATUS WITH SATURATED LOW LVLS AND LIGHT WINDS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1110 PM SAT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR BETTER OVER THE CNTRL/SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FEET N AND 3 TO 5 FEET S. LONG TERM/SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND TROUGH WILL LEAD TO SW WINDS AVERAGING 10 TO 20 KTS THRU MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS CNTRL AND SRN WTRS AND MAINLY DURING THE MORE FAVORABLE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAMES. SEAS COULD FLIRT WITH 5 FT FAR OUTER CNTRL/SRN WATERS AT TIMES...OTHERWISE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #530030 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:09 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1259 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY MONDAY BEFORE A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS AFFECT THE REGION BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR IMAGES. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. TROUGH/VORT ADVECTION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAS DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...REDEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SCT CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN POPS OVERNIGHT. EARLIER RAIN...HIGH RH AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...MID 60S TO AROUND 70. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST CANADA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW. TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES ARE SIMILAR FOR NOW...HOWEVER...SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH. EITHER WAY WILL UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST BY LATE SUNDAY SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF. AGAIN AT THE SURFACE AN EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AND LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER NAM NUMBERS. BREAK UNTIL LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. WEAK LIFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AS A STRONGER VORT MAX ROTATES THROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH WERE CLOSE. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... PREPARE FOR A CONTINUATION OF WARM HUMID WEATHER ALONG WITH PERIODIC HVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A WELL DEFINED POLAR LOW OVER NORTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE SPINNING AND EJECTING SHORT WAVES SE INTO THE BASE OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WHOSE MEAN POSITION IS WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. FORECASTING WAVE AMPLITUDES...TRACKS AND THEIR TIMING WILL REMAIN VERY DIFFICULT. HOWEVER...EACH WAVE WILL BE PRECEDED BY SCT TO NUMEROUS HVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS. OUR CURRENT WX PATTERN WILL PERSIST AS A WARM HUMID AND UNSTABLE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS OVERHEAD. THE MAIN WX THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH HVY RAIN...FROM MINOR URBAN FLOODING TO FLASH FLOODING. ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A BAND OF SCT SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TSTMS IS MVG EAST ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHERN NJ AND WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT MVS EAST OF NEW YORK CITY BY 06Z. OTHERWISE...PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WEST AND NORTH OF NYC WHERE SFC WINDS DECOUPLE FROM THE UPPER WIND FLOW. MAINLY MVFR CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO IFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z TONIGHT AND PERSIST UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...THEN BECOME MVFR BY 14Z. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST FOR SUNDAY...THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE LESS THAN EARLIER TODAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY OFFSHORE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KT WILL PERSIST UNTIL ARND 18Z SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING SUNDAY AFTN. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY FOR MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL BE WEAK AND WINDS AND GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SOME COMPONENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...HOWEVER...SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WIND BECOMES MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN REMAINS INTO THURSDAY. WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY BUILD TO OVER 5 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. ON AVERAGE...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH. THERE MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY STRONGER STORMS. LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A TENTH OR TWO EACH DAY. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #530029 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:59 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1149 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012 .DISCUSSION... 06Z TAF ISSUANCE RATIONALE BELOW. && .AVIATION... GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MID AND MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WHICH BARELY MADE IT INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING. CLOUDINESS IS OVER METRO AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES. THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP VSBY MVFR AT KLBX. EXPANDED MOS GUIDANCE IN AVNFPS IS 50/50 ON THIS HOWEVER. WILL ERR ON SIDE OF CAUTION AND CONTINUE WITH 4SM BR FROM 10-14Z AT KLBX. GOT DOWN TO 6SM WITH IFR STRATUS NEAR SUNRISE AT KUTS...NEW GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST REPEAT BUT WILL FORECAST 6SM BR AND A FEW DECK OF STRATUS WHICH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. KCXO STARTING OFF A LITTLE WARMER THIS EVENING...MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ONLY MVFR AND CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY HAS 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR OR WORSE OVERNIGHT SO WILL FORECAST MVFR CIGS BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE RATHER THAN THE IFR VSBY OBSERVED YESTERDAY. 04 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 99 77 100 77 / 10 10 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 77 98 77 97 77 / 10 10 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 82 92 82 93 82 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530028 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:59 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1253 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL PROVIDE DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... SFC TROF AXIS OVER SERN VA/ERN NC. THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE ERN SXN OF THE CWA. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 IN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE. WARM CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE A SCT- BKN CU DECK...AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NEAR AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL WANE SUN EVE AS SHRTWV TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR GENERATION MOVES E AND SHRTWV RDGG DOMINATES. A SECOND TROF WILL APRCH EARLY MON MRNG AND MAY LEAD TO MRNG PCPN FOR A LRG PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. THIS WAVE DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLY TIMED...SO STG CNVCTN NOT XPCD ATTM. H5 TROF WILL BCM ENTRENCHED ALONG APLCNS THRU TUE NGT WITH MOIST BNDRY LYR PERSISTING. SHWRS AND TSTMS CAN BE XPCD PERIODICALLY DURG THIS TIME. MAXIMA WILL BE NR OR JUST ABV CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS IN THE UPR 80S. MINIMA WILL DEPEND ON AMT OF CLRG OVNGT...AS BNDRY LYR MSTR WILL RMN HIGH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... H5 TROF XPCD TO PERSIST ALONG THE E COAST FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WK. SHRTWV TROFS WILL ACT UPON THE MOIST LOW-LVL AMS TO GENERATE DAILY ROUNDS OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THRU MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PD. MAXIMA WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S-LWR 90S EACH DAY...WITH MINIMA IN THE MID 60S-LWR MID 70S OWING TO CLD CVR AND HIGH BNDRY LYR MSTR CONTENT. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT WARM AND MOIST AMS AT THE SFC AND LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROMOTE DAILY CHCS FOR TSTMS AT THE TERMINALS THRU MUCH OF THE COMING WK. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERION THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. PERSISTENT WARM AND MOIST AMS AT THE SFC AND LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROMOTE DAILY CHCS FOR TSTMS NR THE WATERS THRU MUCH OF THE COMING WK. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ UPDATED...WOODY! |
| #530027 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1136 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012 .DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. YET...BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ANTICIPATED DRG THE 10-14Z SUNDAY PERIOD. GENERALLY LGT SOUTH SFC WIND OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WITH MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DRG THE AFTN HOURS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FCST TO CONTINUE ISOLD CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN CWA OWING TO CURRENT ONGOING/EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF HIGHWAY 16 WILL MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD KLRD. WILL KEEP VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THAT SITE. OTHERWISE...JUST A FEW/SCT ABOVE 3KFT WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z-14Z SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE AFTER 15Z WITH WIND SPEEDS JUST AROUND 10KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. COULD INCREASE TO 10KT T0 15KT AT KALI TO KCRP WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS UPPER LOW/TUTT OVER WESTERN GULF APPROACHING WESTERN GULF COAST. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TAKING THIS TUTT WEST-SOUTHWEST... MAKING LANDFALL IN CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST. QUESTION IS IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE FOR CWFA (WILL IT BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT CWFA). APPARENT CONVECTION (IN THE GULF) WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME IS EAST OR WELL SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE...SO MOST OF THE CONVECTION MAY REMAIN MORE TO THE SOUTH. STILL...THERE IS STILL SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR THE COAST. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE 10 POPS FOR THE COAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY...BUT NOT MENTION RAIN ELSEWHERE (AND HAVE 10 POPS OR LESS). HAVE DECIDED TO TAKE ISOLATED POPS OUT OF VICTORIA AREA AND PLACES NORTH AS LOW PROBABLY TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT THESE AREAS (EXCEPT COAST IN THE MORNING WITH CONVERGENCE). MAY BE MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDER IN THE MORNING BUT WILL KEEP THUNDER FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY QUIET AND WARM. NOT TOO FAR FROM PERSISTENCE WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THESE THREE PERIODS...ESPECIALLY SINCE WEAK LAND BREEZE WILL LIKELY HELP TO DROP TEMPERATURES SOME (ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES). MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...NO PROBLEMS WIND-WISE. COULD HAVE SOME CONVECTION TOWARD MORNING BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCEC WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 3 FEET. LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...QUIET WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINING IN CONTROL. THE RIDGE DOES SHIFT TO A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO COULD ALLOW A WEAK IMPULSE TO MOVE AROUND IT AND OVER THE AREA...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE VERY LIMITED AND SHALLOW. PWAT VALUES DECREASE TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY REAL MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW 900 MB. WILL LEAVE SILENT 10 POPS IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OUTSIDE CHANCE THE SEA BREEZE COULD KICK UP SOMETHING...BUT THINK WE/LL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES VARY LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH HIGHS JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 75 95 75 95 76 / 10 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 72 94 73 95 76 / 10 10 10 10 10 LAREDO 78 102 79 102 78 / 20 10 10 10 0 ALICE 74 99 75 98 75 / 10 10 10 10 0 ROCKPORT 77 92 78 93 80 / 10 10 10 10 10 COTULLA 74 101 74 101 75 / 10 10 10 10 0 KINGSVILLE 75 97 75 97 75 / 10 10 10 10 0 NAVY CORPUS 79 91 79 93 79 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530026 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:39 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1126 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012 .AVIATION... ...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION... A DRIER AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR LESS OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. GIVEN THE LOW THREAT FOR CONVECTION...HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. THERE MAY SOME LIGHT FOG FORMING AROUND 12Z AT KMCB...BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION MIXES OUT AROUND 13Z. OVERALL...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE THE RULE AT ALL AREA TERMINALS. 32 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012/ SHORT TERM... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING WERE THE MAIN TRIGGERING MECHANISMS TODAY. MOST OF THE INLAND ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE WATERS. WHAT EVER IS LEFT OF THE FRONT WILL FIZZLE OUT ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED. 7/ARM LONG TERM... LONG RANGE MODELS KEEP THIS PATTERN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AND QUITE POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL QUITE POSSIBLY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL BE FROM NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR MCS (SQUALL LINES) ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY AWAY. 7/ARM AVIATION... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THE EARLY EVENING HOURS MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. HAVE AMENDED TAFS A FEW TIMES TO BETTER ILLUSTRATE COVERAGE AND POSITION OF CURRENT CONVECTION. IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS HAVE TAPERED OFF AROUND KMCB...KHDC AND KBTR. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS OR BETTER. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER ON THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH KMCB FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 13/MH MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN PLACE WILL HELP KEEP WINDS FROM THE WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS OR BELOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND SEAS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET. 7/ARM DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...GREEN. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...MONITORING RADAR. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 72 96 73 95 / 10 10 10 20 BTR 76 96 75 96 / 20 20 10 20 ASD 75 95 76 94 / 10 20 10 20 MSY 76 95 77 93 / 20 20 10 20 GPT 76 94 77 93 / 10 20 10 20 PQL 75 94 76 93 / 10 20 10 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #530024 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:23 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 612 PM HST SAT JUL 28 2012 .UPDATE... AN AREA OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE EAST WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE CHAIN TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MAUKA AND LEEWARD AREAS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE USUAL WINDWARD AREAS. POP...SKY...WX AND QPF GRIDS WERE UPDATED ACROSS OAHU AND KAUAI FOR TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WETTER FORECAST. .SYNOPSIS... A TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE. CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER SOME LEEWARD LOCATIONS. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. && .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE ISLANDS IN A MODERATE TRADE WIND ENVIRONMENT. TRADE WINDS WILL PICK UP A NOTCH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WESTWARD MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TRADE WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO MODERATE LEVELS AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE STATE. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY PROVIDING A FEW SHOWERS FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. THE TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO CAUSING SOME CLOUDS AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS TO SPILL OVER TO A FEW LEEWARD AREAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHOWERY AREA OF LOW CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS BEGINNING THIS EVENING FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND LATER TONIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE STATE. MORE STABLE LOOKING CLOUDS ARE SEEN FURTHER UPSTREAM SO SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LESS ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING UP SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. THE CURRENT TIMING OF THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS IN THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS HAVE THIS MOISTURE MAINLY AFFECTING WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI. HOWEVER WHEN BOTH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES DANIEL AND EMILIA PASSED BY SOUTH OF THE STATE...MODELS DID THE SAME THING IN BRINGING UP INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS MOISTURE REMAINED SOUTH OF THE STATE. SO FOR NOW THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON INCOMING MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADES. && .AVIATION... ISOL MVFR CIGS WILL BE CONFINED TO WINDWARD SLOPES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING AT MOST TERMINALS. AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS RIDING ALONG THE TRADE FLOW 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL MOVE ASHORE DURING THE EVENING AND SPREAD UP THE ISLAND CHAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF MVFR CIGS ON WINDWARD SLOPES AS THE CLOUD BAND MOVES IN...POSSIBLY REQUIRING AN AIRMET SIERRA SERIES FOR MT OBSC. && .MARINE... WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE USUAL WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. A MODERATE SIZE SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN ON MONDAY...PEAK ON TUESDAY...THEN LOWER SLOWLY ON WEDNESDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ |
| #530025 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:23 AM 29.Jul.2012) AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 612 PM HST SAT JUL 28 2012 .UPDATE... AN AREA OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE EAST WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE CHAIN TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MAUKA AND LEEWARD AREAS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE USUAL WINDWARD AREAS. POP...SKY...WX AND QPF GRIDS WERE UPDATED ACROSS OAHU AND KAUAI FOR TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WETTER FORECAST. && .SYNOPSIS... A TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE. CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER SOME LEEWARD LOCATIONS. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. && .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE ISLANDS IN A MODERATE TRADE WIND ENVIRONMENT. TRADE WINDS WILL PICK UP A NOTCH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WESTWARD MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TRADE WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO MODERATE LEVELS AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE STATE. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY PROVIDING A FEW SHOWERS FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. THE TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO CAUSING SOME CLOUDS AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS TO SPILL OVER TO A FEW LEEWARD AREAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHOWERY AREA OF LOW CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS BEGINNING THIS EVENING FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND LATER TONIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE STATE. MORE STABLE LOOKING CLOUDS ARE SEEN FURTHER UPSTREAM SO SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LESS ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING UP SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. THE CURRENT TIMING OF THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS IN THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS HAVE THIS MOISTURE MAINLY AFFECTING WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI. HOWEVER WHEN BOTH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES DANIEL AND EMILIA PASSED BY SOUTH OF THE STATE...MODELS DID THE SAME THING IN BRINGING UP INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS MOISTURE REMAINED SOUTH OF THE STATE. SO FOR NOW THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON INCOMING MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADES. && .AVIATION... ISOL MVFR CIGS WILL BE CONFINED TO WINDWARD SLOPES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING AT MOST TERMINALS. AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS RIDING ALONG THE TRADE FLOW 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL MOVE ASHORE DURING THE EVENING AND SPREAD UP THE ISLAND CHAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF MVFR CIGS ON WINDWARD SLOPES AS THE CLOUD BAND MOVES IN...POSSIBLY REQUIRING AN AIRMET SIERRA SERIES FOR MT OBSC. && .MARINE... WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE USUAL WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. A MODERATE SIZE SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN ON MONDAY...PEAK ON TUESDAY...THEN LOWER SLOWLY ON WEDNESDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ |
