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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Jacksonville, FL (North Florida) Selection: |
| #532558 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:35 PM 07.Aug.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 925 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012 .UPDATE... DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER EVENING KJAX SOUNDING EXPLAINS THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT REDEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND PERSISTED INTO THIS EVENING. THIS ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN AND BECOME ISOLATED BY 11 PM. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WILL COVER THIS WITH 20-30 POPS AND SHOW THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK AND NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WILL BE MADE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. && .AVIATION...OCNL MVFR VSBY/CIGS FOR JAX TERMINALS THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 03Z/04Z AS REMNANT SHOWERS/ISOLD T-STORM MOVE ENEWD THROUGH DUVAL COUNTY. AFTER MIDNIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CWA BUT RIGHT NOW PROBABILITIES ARE INSUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY PREVAILING SHOWERS OR A TEMPO GROUP. A REPEAT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ON WED (MAINLY AFTN HOURS) AND COVERED THIS WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW...EXCEPT FOR GNV WITH VCTS. && .MARINE...WINDS WILL BE SLY AT ABOUT 10-15 KT AND SEAS OF 2-3 FT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED FOR THE CWF UPDATE. MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS...MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK LIKELY CONTINUING INTO WED DUE TO PREVAILING OFFSHORE WIND AND ESE SWELLS OF ABOUT 1.5 FT AT 9 SECONDS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 72 88 72 92 / 30 70 40 40 SSI 77 88 76 89 / 20 60 40 50 JAX 73 90 73 92 / 30 60 40 50 SGJ 75 90 74 90 / 60 60 30 40 GNV 72 90 73 91 / 40 60 30 50 OCF 72 90 72 92 / 30 60 30 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #532467 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:44 PM 07.Aug.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 136 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON THE EAST SIDE OF A DECAYING TROPICAL WAVE...WITH ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO FIRE CLOSE TO THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE FRONT. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD POPS FOR MOST AREAS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BY LATER IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FOR MOST OF NE FL. FURTHER NORTH...AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WILL KEEP POPS SCATTERED FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SE GA. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WILL PREVAIL. FOR WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR THE TROUGH ACROSS SE GA IN THE MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH IN THE AFTN AS THE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH SEABREEZE/SMALLER SCALE BOUNDARIES. WILL USE NUMEROUS POPS AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY AFTN...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL PREVAIL. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MOIST SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND CONTINUED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. INTO NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE EARLY NEXT WEEK IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS UNSETTLED AND MOIST...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE MEX GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .AVIATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND A WEAK TROUGH EXISTS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE LIGHT FOG AT VQQ EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... S TO SW FLOW AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL PREVAIL...WITH POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL SURGES 15-20 KNOTS AT NIGHT OFFSHORE. RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... A MOIST SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SERIES OF TROUGHS AFFECTING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE RESULT OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL BE MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 72 88 72 92 / 60 70 40 40 SSI 77 88 76 89 / 50 60 40 50 JAX 73 90 73 92 / 50 60 40 50 SGJ 75 90 74 90 / 50 60 30 40 GNV 72 90 73 91 / 50 60 30 50 OCF 72 90 72 92 / 50 60 30 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #532431 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:05 AM 07.Aug.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 900 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012 ...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... .UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER THIS MORNING UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PRECIP WELL OFFSHORE TO THE EAST...AND JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MARION/GILCHRIST COUNTIES. EXPECT INITIAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WEST OF I-75 AND ALONG THE COAST BY 11 AM TO NOON...THEN SPREAD ACROSS ALL AREAS THIS AFTN AS A TROUGH TO THE NORTH INTERACTS WITH SEABREEZE AND SMALLER SCALE BOUNDARIES. WILL RETAIN NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD POPS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. WITH HIGH PRECIP COVERAGE...DID INCORPORATE SOME RAIN COOLED AIR TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS...YIELDING UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER 90S SOUTH OF JAX ALONG I-95 WHERE A LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED. && .AVIATION... PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING UNDER ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHWRS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTN...AND WILL USE TEMPO TS WITH AREAS OF MVFR FOR ALL SITES 19-23Z. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH VFR EXPECTED LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE... S TO SW FLOW AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK. POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL SURGES CLOSE TO 15 KNOTS AT NIGHT. RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH S TO SW FLOW AND NOT MUCH EASTERLY SWELL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 88 73 90 73 / 80 60 60 50 SSI 86 77 87 77 / 70 50 60 50 JAX 89 74 90 74 / 80 40 60 50 SGJ 90 76 88 75 / 70 50 50 40 GNV 88 73 90 74 / 80 40 60 40 OCF 89 72 90 73 / 80 40 50 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #532387 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:56 AM 07.Aug.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 340 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012 ...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... .SHORT TERM (TUE-THU)... TODAY/WEDNESDAY...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WHILE A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RESULT WILL BE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH HEATING AND SEABREEZES TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BEGIN NEAR THE COAST LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE. WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY AND LIKELY WED. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF OVER 2 INCHES (DUE TO HIGH PW) WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. MAX TEMPS HELD IN CHECK DUE TO CLOUD COVER/PCP AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS MET GUIDANCE AND STAY CLOSE TO CLIMO VALUES. THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE CNTL FL PENINSULA WHILE THE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WEAKENS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SW FLOW BRINGING IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND WILL AGAIN COMBINE WITH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ENHANCED BY THE SEABREEZES. WILL GO HIGH END SCATTERED POPS ALL AREAS WITH MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO. && .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA GETS SHUNTED SOUTH AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGS SE INTO THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SW FLOW AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS. NEAR CLIMO TEMPS EXPECTED. && .AVIATION... WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL AIRMASS SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND 1000-1500 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME 3-5SM VSBYS AT INLAND TAF SITES. WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING THIS MORNING TO KICK OFF SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING AND HAVE ADDED VCSH AT TAF SITES BY 14Z WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FEET THEN KEPT VCTS FOR POTENTIAL TSTMS FROM 18Z ONWARD WITH CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FEET CONTINUING THROUGH THE 02Z TIME FRAME. && .MARINE... S TO SW FLOW AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK. POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL SURGES CLOSE TO 15 KNOTS AT NIGHT. RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK WITH S TO SW FLOW AND NOT MUCH EASTERLY SWELL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 89 73 90 73 / 80 60 60 50 SSI 87 77 87 77 / 70 50 60 50 JAX 90 74 90 74 / 80 40 60 50 SGJ 89 76 88 75 / 70 50 50 40 GNV 90 73 90 74 / 80 40 60 40 OCF 90 72 90 73 / 80 40 50 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
