|
Show Area Forecast Discussion - Melbourne, FL (East Central Florida) Selection: |
| #532788 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:32 PM 08.Aug.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 900 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2012 .DISCUSSION...MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST-LAKE OKEECHOBEE BREEZE INTERACTION IN MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES. LIGHT DEBRIS RAIN WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR THROUGH 10PM. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO LINGER ACROSS BREVARD...INDIAN RIVER AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES AS OUTFLOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S STORMS INTERACTS WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY LATE TONIGHT AFTER STORMS END. LIGHT BUT STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE L/M70S. THURSDAY...AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST ON THU...WHICH USUALLY LEADS TO SUBSIDENCE AND THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT THE GFS IS SHOWING. WITH THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWING DRYING OFF TO OUR EAST...WILL ACCEPT THE 15-20 PERCENT MOS POPS. THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE OVER THE INTERIOR. TYPICALLY HOT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH 90 TO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 90S FOR THE INTERIOR. && .AVIATION...-RA CONTINUING FROM KISM-KEVB NORTH AND WEST THROUGH 09/02Z. ISOLD-SCT TSRA SOUTH OF THE ABOVE LINE TO KFPR THROUGH 09/03Z WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09/04Z WITH LCL GROUND FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK. DEEP LAYER DRYING OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO LIMITED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY. && .MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA INTO THURSDAY WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT DRIFT NORTHWARDS. NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN WINDS WILL BRING 10-15KTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS THAT REMAIN NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. PREVAILING FLOW THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS WITH A SHIFT TO THE ESE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SEA BREEZE FORMATION. SEAS 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2-3 FT OFFSHORE. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOWER THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY BUT STEERING FLOW WILL BRING ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS OFFSHORE NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #532718 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:32 PM 08.Aug.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 224 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2012 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT-TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS DRYING TREND KEEPS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE STATE. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FIRST ALONG THE TREASURE COAST EARLIER TODAY AND MOST RECENTLY THE SPACE COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO ZIPPER UP THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST CHANCES AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS REMAINS I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. SOUTH OF HERE WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS TIME. THE WARM AIR ALOFT AND DECREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES CONTINUES TO HAMPER GREATER AND SEASONAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. A FEW CELLS WILL MOVE OFF OF THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE OFFSHORE STEERING FLOW. LIGHT BUT STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE L/M70S. THU-FRI...AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST ON THU...WHICH USUALLY LEADS TO SUBSIDENCE AND THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT THE GFS IS SHOWING. WITH THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWING DRYING OFF TO OUR EAST...WILL ACCEPT THE 15-20 PERCENT MOS POPS. THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE OVER THE INTERIOR. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN ON FRI WITH AXIS SHIFTING TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL EASE THE SUBSIDENCE AND WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE DRY SPELL CONTINUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THOUGH...WITH 30 PERCENT POPS THERE. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR...40 PERCENT. TYPICALLY HOT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH 90 TO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 90S FOR THE INTERIOR. WEEKEND...TAIL END OF MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CONUS AND SOUTHEAST STATES MAY HAVE A SLIGHT INFLUENCE ON THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY SAT. DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND STEERING LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TAKE ON A LIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER BUT NOT A MAJOR INCREASE. THIS SUGGESTS ABOUT CLIMO POPS...30-40 PERCENT...WHICH IS WHAT THE LATEST MOS SHOWS. MON-WED...TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN IS INDICATED WITH RATHER FLAT FLOW AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE IS ANTICIPATED. THE GFS SHOWS A RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES) LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND REACHING THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. MOS POPS CONTINUE 30-40 PERCENT WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE LOW IF THE MOISTURE VALUES SHOWN BY THE MODEL ARE CORRECT. && .AVIATION...ALL SITES REMAINING VFR UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED: SFC WNDSHFT FROM S/SW TO E/SE AOB 10KTS CSTL SITES WITH THE DVLPMNT OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. BTWN 08/18Z-08/24Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS N OF KLEE-KTIX...ISOLD MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS S OF KLEE-KTIX. DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES OVER ECFL ON THU WITH ONLY SCHC AFTN SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE...REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA DURING THIS PERIOD. S/SE WINDS 5-10 KTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME ESE 10 KTS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO AFTN SEA BREEZE FORMATION. SSE WINDS THIS EVENING INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS AWAY FROM THE COAST BECOMING S/SSW LATE AND FALLING BACK TO 5-10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THU MORNING. SEAS 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2-3 FT OFFSHORE. OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS POSSIBLE NORTH OF CAPE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER IN VICINITY OF STRONGER STORM CELLS. THU-FRI...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH GENERALLY A 5-10 KNOTS SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WIND FLOW. A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS IS INDICATED IN THE EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THU LOOKS DRIER THAN NORMAL BUT THU NIGHT AND FRI SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. WEEKEND...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND THE RESULT SHOULD BE A LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WESTERLY COMPONENT TO PUSH SOME OF THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS BACK ACROSS THE COAST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 91 75 92 / 20 20 20 30 MCO 75 94 76 94 / 10 20 20 40 MLB 75 90 78 91 / 10 20 20 30 VRB 74 90 77 91 / 10 20 20 30 LEE 77 95 76 94 / 10 20 20 40 SFB 77 95 77 94 / 10 20 20 40 ORL 77 94 77 94 / 10 20 20 40 FPR 74 90 76 91 / 10 20 20 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #532670 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:32 AM 08.Aug.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 928 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT-TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA TO INCLUDE THE TREASURE COAST. THIS DRYING IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE NORTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. GREATEST CHANCES AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR AFTERNOON STORMS REMAINS I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. SOUTH OF HERE WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WARM AIR ALOFT AND DECREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES WILL HAMPER GREATER AND SEASONAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. A FEW CELLS COULD MOVE OFF OF THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE OFFSHORE STEERING FLOW. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM BY MIDDAY SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN ZIPPER UP THE COAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...U80S/L90S COAST AND L/M90S INTERIOR. LIGHT BUT STEADY SRLY BREEZE WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M70S. && .AVIATION...MAINLY CONTINUED VFR. BTWN 08/16Z-08/19Z...SFC WNDSHFT FROM S/SW TO E/SE AOB 10KTS CSTL SITES WITH THE DVLPMNT OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. BTWN 08/18Z-08/24Z...WDLY SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS N OF KLEE-KTIX...ISOLD MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS S OF KLEE-KTIX. && .MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA DURING THIS PERIOD. S/SSE WINDS 5-10 KTS BECOMING ESE 10 KTS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO EARLY AFTN SEA BREEZE FORMATION. SSE WINDS THIS EVENING INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS AWAY FROM THE COAST BECOMING S/SSW LATE AND FALLING BACK TO 5-10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THU MORNING. SEAS 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2-3 FT OFFSHORE. OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS POSSIBLE NORTH OF CAPE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER IN VICINITY OF STRONGER CELLS. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #532605 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:41 AM 08.Aug.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 335 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012 .DISCUSSION... TODAY-TONIGHT... A WEAK FRONTAL TROF OVR THE ERN CONUS WILL DAMPEN OUT AS ITS ACCOMPANYING H30-H20 JET STREAK LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DEEP LYR ATLC RIDGE STACKED OVER S FL TO DRIFT N INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. DIURNAL PRECIP WILL BE HAMPERED BY SVRL FACTORS TODAY: RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE LOW LVL AIR WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES AOB AOB 60PCT OVER S FL AND AOB 70PCT N FL...A STUBBORN MID/UPR LVL CLOUD DECK OVER CENTRAL AND N FL THAT WILL IMPEDE SFC HEATING...INCREASING SUPPRESSION AS THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS N...A FAIRLY STRONG MID LVL THERMAL CAP WITH H70 TEMPS NEAR 9C...A WEAK MID LVL VORT FIELD ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL FL...AND AN H30-H20 COL CENTERED JUST OFF CAPE CANAVERAL THAT WILL GENERATE WEAK UPR LVL CONVERGENCE. DEEPER MOISTURE N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL GIVE VOLUSIA AND NRN LAKE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES...BUT GIVEN THE OTHER FACTORS LISTED...WILL CAP THEM AT 30PCT. REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL BE AOB 20PCT. PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVNG...BUT WILL BE ISOLD AT BEST AND LIMITED TO THE NRN CWA. WEAK PGRAD WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM BY MIDDAY S OF SEBASTIAN INLET...SEA BREEZE WILL THEN ZIPPER UP THE COAST THRU MID AFTN. MAV MOS TEMPS LOOK A TOUCH HIGH GIVEN THE MID/UPR LVL CLOUD DECK IN PLACE AND THE EARLY FORMATION OF THE SEA BREEZE...WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...U80S/L90S COAST AND L/M90S INTERIOR. LIGHT BUT STEADY SRLY BREEZE WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M70S. THU-FRI...AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST ON THU...WHICH USUALLY LEADS TO SUBSIDENCE AND THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT THE GFS IS SHOWING. WITH THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWING DRYING OFF TO OUR EAST...WILL ACCEPT THE 15-20 PERCENT MOS POPS. THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE OVER THE INTERIOR. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN ON FRI WITH AXIS SHIFTING TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL EASE THE SUBSIDENCE AND WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE DRY SPELL CONTINUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THOUGH...WITH 30 PERCENT POPS THERE. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR...40 PERCENT TYPICALLY HOT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH 90 TO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 90S FOR THE INTERIOR. WEEKEND...TAIL END OF MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CONUS AND SOUTHEAST STATES MAY HAVE A SLIGHT INFLUENCE ON THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY SAT. DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND STEERING LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TAKE ON A LIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER BUT NOT A MAJOR INCREASE. THIS SUGGESTS ABOUT CLIMO POPS...30-40 PERCENT...WHICH IS WHAT THE LATEST MOS SHOWS. MON-WED...TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN IS INDICATED WITH RATHER FLAT FLOW AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE IS ANTICIPATED. THE GFS SHOWS A RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES) LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND REACHING THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. MOS POPS CONTINUE 30-40 PERCENT WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE LOW IF THE MOISTURE VALUES SHOWN BY THE MODEL ARE CORRECT. && .AVIATION... ALL SITES VFR UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED: BTWN 08/16Z-08/19Z...SFC WNDSHFT FROM S/SW TO E/SE AOB 10KTS CSTL SITES WITH THE DVLPMNT OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. BTWN 08/18Z-08/24Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS N OF KLEE-KTIX...ISOLD MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS S OF KLEE-KTIX. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...ATLC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FM THE NRN BAHAMAS TO THE SE GOMEX WILL DRIFT N INTO CENTRAL FL TODAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. WEAK PGRAD WILL RESULT...KEEPING SFC/BNDRY LYR WNDS AOB 12KTS. POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL GENERATE A S/SE FLOW S OF CAPE CANAVERAL...S/SW NORTH OF THE CAPE. WINDS NEAR THE COAST WILL SHIFT TO THE E BY MIDDAY S OF SEBASTIAN INLET AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DVLPS...SEA BREEZE WILL ZIPPER UP THE COAST TO FLAGLER BEACH BY MID AFTN. SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE. SCT AFTN TSRAS MOVG OFFSHORE N OF THE CAPE. THU-FRI...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH GENERALLY A 5-10 KNOTS SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WIND FLOW. A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS IS INDICATED IN THE EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THU LOOKS DRIER THAN NORMAL BUT THU NIGHT AND FRI SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. WEEKEND...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND THE RESULT SHOULD BE A LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WESTERLY COMPONENT TO PUSH SOME OF THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS BACK ACROSS THE COAST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 90 75 92 76 / 30 20 20 20 MCO 93 75 94 75 / 20 10 20 20 MLB 89 75 90 77 / 20 10 20 20 VRB 89 76 90 76 / 20 10 20 20 LEE 92 76 95 78 / 30 10 20 20 SFB 92 75 94 77 / 20 10 20 20 ORL 93 75 94 78 / 20 10 20 20 FPR 89 74 90 76 / 20 10 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
