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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tampa Bay - Ruskin, FL (West Central Florida) Selection: |
| #533625 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:32 PM 11.Aug.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 819 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012 .DISCUSSION (TONIGHT)... THIS EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHED FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE GULF WITH AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE GULF COASTAL/SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC RIDGED WESTWARD...OVER THE FL KEYS TO THE CENTRAL GULF. CURRENTLY SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAVING PUSHED EAST AND WEAKENED. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER ENHANCED MOISTURE...FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND ALSO STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH...WILL RESULT IN SOME LATE NIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS DRIFTING ONSHORE BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO DROP INTO THE 70S FOR OVER NIGHT LOWS. WINDS LIGHT AND MOSTLY SOUTH AND SW. FORECASTS LOOK WITH GOOD NO UPDATES PLANNED. && .AVIATION... ISOLD EVENING SHWRS WITH LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...OTHERWISE SCT LCL BKN 250 OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS WITH FEW 010-020 NEAR THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE. SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AREAS MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LCL IFR VSBYS IN AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN. && .MARINE... A RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN SW AND WEST WINDS 5-10 KT OVER NIGHT WITH SEAS OF 2 FEET. NEXT FORECAST OUT BY 10 PM WITH LITTLE CHANGE. && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #533563 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:17 PM 11.Aug.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 205 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE PERSISTENT IN KEEPING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE TROPICS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 70S. && .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA UNTIL MAYBE THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN THE MODELS PUSH A COOL FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SCATTERED POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER LAND AND ISOLATED POPS AT ALMOST ANYTIME OVER THE WATER. OVERALL FLOW SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND MOVE INLAND TAKING BEST RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION... SCT TSTMS ARE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY. THESE STORMS WILL PROVIDE MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND THE STORMS WITH IFR VSBY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A GENERAL WEAK WRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH. THIS MEANS SHRA AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS PUSHING A BIT MORE QUICKLY EAST THAN YESTERDAY...BUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE NW NOW MVG ACROSS THE NATURE COAST COULD LEAD TO DEVIATIONS IN TYPICAL SEA BREEZE MODEL FOR TIMING OF SHRA AND TSTMS. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...EXPECT TO SEE TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST IN CHARLOTTE HARBOR AREA BEFORE SUNRISE ON SUN DUE TO MORE SRLY FLOW...COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON THIS REGION. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE THRESHOLDS. && .FIRE WEATHER... RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 91 78 91 / 10 30 10 40 FMY 75 92 76 93 / 20 40 10 50 GIF 75 92 75 93 / 10 50 20 50 SRQ 76 90 76 91 / 20 30 10 30 BKV 73 93 72 92 / 10 30 10 40 SPG 79 90 80 91 / 10 30 10 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #533532 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 11.Aug.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 1058 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012 .UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP...BUT THE MAIN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON REVOLVES AROUND POPS. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...AND SHOULD KEEP POPS IN CHECK AS INDICATED BY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS. AS A RESULT...WILL SCALE BACK POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANGE NEEDED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOCALES ASIDE FROM TIMING POP TRENDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...SO WILL TWEAK FORECAST HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO HERE. OVERALL...SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S MOST LOCALES...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. && .AVIATION... BKN MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BRIEFLY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN EARLY STAGES OF CU DEVELOPMENT AROUND LATE MORNING BEFORE CIGS SCT OUT AND/OR LIFT ABOVE 3000 FT. OTHERWISE...ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ASSOC W/ SCT TSTMS IN THE AREA. A GENERAL WEAK WRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST AS THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY EAST A BIT QUICKER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS FROM TPA NORTHWARD...AND THIS IS INDICATE IN TAFS. HAVE CONFINED TEMPOS TO HIGHEST POP AREAS ALONG THE SW COAST AROUND CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND INLAND (LAL) WITH VCTS IN TAMPA BAY AREA...ALTHOUGH DEFINITELY CAN NOT RULE OUT A TSTM AT ANY STATION. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...EXPECT TO SEE TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST IN CHARLOTTE HARBOR AREA BEFORE SUNRISE ON SUN DUE TO MORE SRLY FLOW...COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON THIS REGION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 78 91 78 / 40 20 30 20 FMY 91 75 92 76 / 40 20 40 20 GIF 91 76 92 76 / 50 20 30 20 SRQ 90 75 91 75 / 20 20 30 20 BKV 91 74 92 72 / 30 20 20 20 SPG 90 79 91 79 / 30 20 30 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #533507 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:02 AM 11.Aug.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 757 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012 .AVIATION...BKN MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BRIEFLY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN EARLY STAGES OF CU DEVELOPMENT AROUND LATE MORNING BEFORE CIGS SCT OUT AND/OR LIFT ABOVE 3000 FT. OTHERWISE...ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ASSOC W/ SCT TSTMS IN THE AREA. A GENERAL WEAK WRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST AS THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY EAST A BIT QUICKER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS FROM TPA NORTHWARD...AND THIS IS INDICATE IN TAFS. HAVE CONFINED TEMPOS TO HIGHEST POP AREAS ALONG THE SW COAST AROUND CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND INLAND (LAL) WITH VCTS IN TAMPA BAY AREA...ALTHOUGH DEFINITELY CAN NOT RULE OUT A TSTM AT ANY STATION. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...EXPECT TO SEE TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST IN CHARLOTTE HARBOR AREA BEFORE SUNRISE ON SUN DUE TO MORE SRLY FLOW...COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON THIS REGION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012/ SHORT TERM (TODAY - MONDAY)...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ENHANCED BY THE LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION IS FIRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LEVY/CITRUS COUNTY COAST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE IN LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTY THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL START OFF OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING BUT BECOME DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AS SEA BREEZES PUSH RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING TUTT LOW IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF WATERS...AND THIS WILL HELP TO DRAG MORE MOISTURE UP OVER THE REGION. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. I AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD REDUCE OVERALL STORM COVERAGE...BUT TO BE SAFE WILL USE A BLEND OF MAV AND MET POPS TO COME UP WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD AND 50 TO 60 PERCENT SOUTH AND EAST. ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MAY HOLD IN A BIT FARTHER NORTH ALLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY TO HOLD CLOSER TO THE COAST FROM ABOUT SARASOTA COUNTY SOUTHWARD. THAT SAID...THE STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE TOWARD THE EAST OR NORTHEAST SO AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS IT SHOULD PUSH INLAND. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE OVER CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AROUND 50 PERCENT...WHILE A DRY LAYER OF AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS CUTS DOWN ON RAIN CHANCES FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH. FOR MONDAY...THE GFS SHOWS A RATHER LARGE AREA OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE NAM SHOWS CONSIDERABLY LESS. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...IT WILL BE QUITE CLOUDY WHICH WOULD HOLD DOWN HEATING AND LIKELY SLOW DOWN AND LIMIT OUR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE DAY. AT THIS POINT...FEEL ITS BEST TO BLEND THE MAV AND MET TO ARRIVE AT A COMPROMISE SOLUTION...BUT WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND DECREASE TEMPERATURES IF MODELS CONVERGE ON THE GFS SOLUTION. LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)... OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA UNTIL MAYBE THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN THE MODELS PUSH A COOL FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SCATTERED POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER LAND AND ISOLATED POPS AT ALMOST ANYTIME OVER THE WATER. OVERALL FLOW SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND MOVE INLAND TAKING BEST RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. AVIATION... SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING GETS UNDERWAY...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AND SHIFT INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION COULD CAUSE SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS IN THE TAF FORECASTS. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MARINE...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE SOUTH. SEAS ARE AROUND A FOOT WITH BAY WATERS MOSTLY SMOOTH. THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WINDS LIGHT AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHT WINDS COULD RESULT IN POOR SMOKE DISPERSION VALUES AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 78 91 78 / 40 20 30 20 FMY 92 76 91 77 / 50 20 40 20 GIF 92 76 92 76 / 50 20 30 20 SRQ 91 76 90 76 / 30 20 30 20 BKV 93 74 92 72 / 40 20 20 20 SPG 91 80 90 80 / 40 20 30 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #533461 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:44 AM 11.Aug.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 337 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY - MONDAY)...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ENHANCED BY THE LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION IS FIRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LEVY/CITRUS COUNTY COAST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE IN LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTY THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL START OFF OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING BUT BECOME DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AS SEA BREEZES PUSH RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING TUTT LOW IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF WATERS...AND THIS WILL HELP TO DRAG MORE MOISTURE UP OVER THE REGION. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. I AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD REDUCE OVERALL STORM COVERAGE...BUT TO BE SAFE WILL USE A BLEND OF MAV AND MET POPS TO COME UP WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD AND 50 TO 60 PERCENT SOUTH AND EAST. ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MAY HOLD IN A BIT FARTHER NORTH ALLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY TO HOLD CLOSER TO THE COAST FROM ABOUT SARASOTA COUNTY SOUTHWARD. THAT SAID...THE STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE TOWARD THE EAST OR NORTHEAST SO AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS IT SHOULD PUSH INLAND. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE OVER CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AROUND 50 PERCENT...WHILE A DRY LAYER OF AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS CUTS DOWN ON RAIN CHANCES FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH. FOR MONDAY...THE GFS SHOWS A RATHER LARGE AREA OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE NAM SHOWS CONSIDERABLY LESS. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...IT WILL BE QUITE CLOUDY WHICH WOULD HOLD DOWN HEATING AND LIKELY SLOW DOWN AND LIMIT OUR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE DAY. AT THIS POINT...FEEL ITS BEST TO BLEND THE MAV AND MET TO ARRIVE AT A COMPROMISE SOLUTION...BUT WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND DECREASE TEMPERATURES IF MODELS CONVERGE ON THE GFS SOLUTION. .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)... OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA UNTIL MAYBE THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN THE MODELS PUSH A COOL FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SCATTERED POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER LAND AND ISOLATED POPS AT ALMOST ANYTIME OVER THE WATER. OVERALL FLOW SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND MOVE INLAND TAKING BEST RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION... SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING GETS UNDERWAY...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AND SHIFT INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION COULD CAUSE SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS IN THE TAF FORECASTS. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .MARINE...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE SOUTH. SEAS ARE AROUND A FOOT WITH BAY WATERS MOSTLY SMOOTH. THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WINDS LIGHT AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHT WINDS COULD RESULT IN POOR SMOKE DISPERSION VALUES AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 78 91 78 / 40 20 30 20 FMY 92 76 91 77 / 50 20 40 20 GIF 92 76 92 76 / 50 20 30 20 SRQ 91 76 90 76 / 30 20 30 20 BKV 93 74 92 72 / 40 20 20 20 SPG 91 80 90 80 / 40 20 30 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
