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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Lake Charles, LA (Lake Charles, LA Area) Selection: |
| #533849 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:47 PM 12.Aug.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 844 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012 .DISCUSSION... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE N GULF. SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER SC LA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS DISSIPATED...WITH NOT MUCH RE-DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ONGOING FORECAST HAS 10% CHANCE OVERNIGHT...WHICH LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S THIS EVENING...OVERNIGHT LOWS OF MID/UPPER 70S STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THE FORECAST. DML && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012/ DISCUSSION... FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. AVIATION... ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EAST/SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA ARE DIMINISHING...AND VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT WILL LET THIS BE HASHED OUT IN SUBSEQUENT FCSTS. 13 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012/ DISCUSSION... AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA CONTINUED AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHWARD. SHOWERS WERE AIDED BY A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT THE LARGER LANDSCAPE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EAST COAST WITH DISTURBANCES ROTATING AT TIMES THROUGH THE TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE CONVERSELY WAS CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS AND RIDGED EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ON MONDAY...THE TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT A LITTLE DEEPER SOUTH AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO PASS INTO OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. GULF MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN EARNEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING SAGS SOUTH TO NEAR A LUFKIN AND JENA LINE. PW`S JUMP TO OVER 2 INCHES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. POPS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AFTERNOON HEATING AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TOO SEE OUR AREA OCCASIONALLY GET WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. CONVECTION IF ANY WILL BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO DAYLIGHT HOURS AS AFTERNOON HEATING AND SEABREEZE ACTIVITY HELP TO GENERATE SOME RAINFALL. NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS UNTIL LATER TOWARDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AMPLIFICATION OF HIGH PRESSURE WEST AND UPPER LEVEL TOUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY SATURDAY MORNING. GFS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE ON DEVELOPING A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON FRIDAY AND PUSHING IT NORTH TO THE MEXICO COAST BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF JUST CARRIES A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND DOESN`T DEVELOP IT AS MUCH. I PREFER THE MORE TAME ECMWF SOLUTION AS DEVELOPMENT OCCURS TO FAST AND WOUND UP TO TIGHT FOR THE GFS. ECMWF SOLUTION MORE APPROPRIATE FOR BEYOND DAY 7 AS I EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK. MARINE... WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD HAVE MARKEDLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 78 90 77 92 78 / 10 40 10 40 10 KBPT 77 91 77 93 77 / 10 30 10 40 10 KAEX 75 92 75 94 75 / 10 40 10 40 10 KLFT 76 90 76 90 76 / 10 40 10 40 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #533834 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:59 PM 12.Aug.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 651 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012 .DISCUSSION... FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. && .AVIATION... ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EAST/SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA ARE DIMINISHING...AND VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT WILL LET THIS BE HASHED OUT IN SUBSEQUENT FCSTS. 13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012/ DISCUSSION... AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA CONTINUED AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHWARD. SHOWERS WERE AIDED BY A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT THE LARGER LANDSCAPE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EAST COAST WITH DISTURBANCES ROTATING AT TIMES THROUGH THE TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE CONVERSELY WAS CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS AND RIDGED EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ON MONDAY...THE TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT A LITTLE DEEPER SOUTH AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO PASS INTO OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. GULF MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN EARNEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING SAGS SOUTH TO NEAR A LUFKIN AND JENA LINE. PW`S JUMP TO OVER 2 INCHES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. POPS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AFTERNOON HEATING AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TOO SEE OUR AREA OCCASIONALLY GET WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. CONVECTION IF ANY WILL BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO DAYLIGHT HOURS AS AFTERNOON HEATING AND SEABREEZE ACTIVITY HELP TO GENERATE SOME RAINFALL. NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS UNTIL LATER TOWARDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AMPLIFICATION OF HIGH PRESSURE WEST AND UPPER LEVEL TOUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY SATURDAY MORNING. GFS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE ON DEVELOPING A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON FRIDAY AND PUSHING IT NORTH TO THE MEXICO COAST BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF JUST CARRIES A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND DOESN`T DEVELOP IT AS MUCH. I PREFER THE MORE TAME ECMWF SOLUTION AS DEVELOPMENT OCCURS TO FAST AND WOUND UP TO TIGHT FOR THE GFS. ECMWF SOLUTION MORE APPROPRIATE FOR BEYOND DAY 7 AS I EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK. MARINE... WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD HAVE MARKEDLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 76 91 76 93 / 10 40 10 40 KBPT 77 91 77 93 / 10 30 10 40 KAEX 75 92 75 94 / 10 40 10 40 KLFT 76 90 76 91 / 10 40 10 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #533806 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:11 PM 12.Aug.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 302 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012 .DISCUSSION... AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA CONTINUED AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHWARD. SHOWERS WERE AIDED BY A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT THE LARGER LANDSCAPE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EAST COAST WITH DISTURBANCES ROTATING AT TIMES THROUGH THE TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE CONVERSELY WAS CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS AND RIDGED EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ON MONDAY...THE TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT A LITTLE DEEPER SOUTH AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO PASS INTO OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. GULF MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN EARNEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING SAGS SOUTH TO NEAR A LUFKIN AND JENA LINE. PW`S JUMP TO OVER 2 INCHES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. POPS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AFTERNOON HEATING AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TOO SEE OUR AREA OCCASIONALLY GET WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. CONVECTION IF ANY WILL BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO DAYLIGHT HOURS AS AFTERNOON HEATING AND SEABREEZE ACTIVITY HELP TO GENERATE SOME RAINFALL. NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS UNTIL LATER TOWARDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AMPLIFICATION OF HIGH PRESSURE WEST AND UPPER LEVEL TOUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY SATURDAY MORNING. GFS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE ON DEVELOPING A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON FRIDAY AND PUSHING IT NORTH TO THE MEXICO COAST BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF JUST CARRIES A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND DOESN`T DEVELOP IT AS MUCH. I PREFER THE MORE TAME ECMWF SOLUTION AS DEVELOPMENT OCCURS TO FAST AND WOUND UP TO TIGHT FOR THE GFS. ECMWF SOLUTION MORE APPROPRIATE FOR BEYOND DAY 7 AS I EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD HAVE MARKEDLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 76 91 77 91 / 10 40 10 40 KBPT 77 91 77 93 / 10 30 10 40 KAEX 75 92 75 94 / 10 40 10 40 KLFT 76 90 76 91 / 10 40 10 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #533782 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:47 PM 12.Aug.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1238 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012 .AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM KAEX TO KLFT AND KARA. LEFT VCSH IN TAFS FOR THOSE AREAS. LESSER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE FOUND FARTHER WEST AND KEPT KLCH AND KBPT DRY, HOWEVER AN ISOLD TSRA IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION... MAY AMEND TAFS LATER AND ADD PRECIP MENTION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012/ UPDATE... RADAR MORE ACTIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF COUNTY WARNING AREA SPECIFICALLY FROM VERMILION PARISH EAST TO ST MARY AND LOWER ST MARTIN. FORECAST SOUNDING THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE IN THIS RADAR ACTIVE AREA. IN ADDITION...850/700 MB VORTICITY LOBE ALLOWING INCREASED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. LOCAL WRF MODEL ALSO INDICATES BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IN THIS AREA. WILL BRING SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO CHANCE POPS REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS IN THIS AREA AS WELL. WILL REISSUE ZONE FORECAST TO MAKE CHANGES TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO OTHER AREAS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012/ AVIATION...A WEAK RETURN FLOW CONTINUES AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED JUST NORTH OF AEX. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG AROUND THE ARA TERMINAL COULD STILL PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR VIS FOR ANOTHER HOUR. MVFR FOG IS ALSO STILL POSSIBLE AROUND BPT AND LFT. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP IN THE UNSTABLE MARINE LAYER WHICH DRIES OUT ABOVE 10K FEET. THE SHOWERS ARE NOT AFFECTING ANY TERMINALS AND SHOULD MIX OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TNITE AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. SWEENEY PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012/ SYNOPSIS... THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RE-BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TO ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FURTHER-UP...A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NEW-MEXICO ROCKIES RIDGES SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. WHILE FURTHER EAST AND NORTH...AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE WILL TRAVEL THROUGH QUEBEC. A ROLLER COASTER VORTICITY (OR SHORTWAVE) TRACK SEPARATES THE NEW MEXICO ANTICYCLONE-QUEBEC CYCLONE CONFIGURATION...WITH THE STEEP DOWN SLIDE EXTENDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOUISIANA-GEORGIA REGION. DISCUSSION... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH LUFKIN THROUGH BATON ROUGE THIS MORNING. THE STALLED FRONT SEPARATES A STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE PINEY HILLS-LAKES REGION FROM AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE COASTAL MARSHES. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...A WEAK GULF RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT SEASONAL. FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...ANOTHER MIDWEST COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL INTO THE ST LOUIS-DALLAS CORRIDOR ON MONDAY...REACHING A GREAT SMOKEY MOUNTAINS TO SHREVEPORT LINE BY TUESDAY. SHORTWAVES EMANATING OUT OF THE TRAVELING MIDWEST FRONT WILL TRAVEL INTO THE FORECAST AREA...SEE AFOREMENTIONED VORTICITY TRACK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN. MARINE... THE DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD WILL BE RUNNING FROM 3 TO 5 SECONDS... WITH THE DIRECTION OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. OUTLOOK... ANOTHER GREAT PLAINS/MIDWEST COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AND EAST...REACHING CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY NEXT SATURDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. 21 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 76 93 75 93 77 / 10 40 10 40 10 KBPT 76 93 75 93 76 / 10 30 10 40 10 KAEX 74 94 73 95 74 / 10 40 10 40 10 KLFT 76 93 76 94 75 / 10 40 10 40 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #533770 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:53 AM 12.Aug.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1049 AM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012 .UPDATE... RADAR MORE ACTIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF COUNTY WARNING AREA SPECIFICALLY FROM VERMILION PARISH EAST TO ST MARY AND LOWER ST MARTIN. FORECAST SOUNDING THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE IN THIS RADAER ACTIVE AREA. IN ADDITION...850/700 MB VORTICITY LOBE ALLOWING INCREASED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. LOCAL WRF MODEL ALSO INDICATES BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IN THIS AREA. WILL BRING SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO CHANCE POPS REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS IN THIS AREA AS WELL. WILL REISSUE ZONE FORECAST TO MAKE CHANGES TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO OTHER AREAS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012/ AVIATION...A WEAK RETURN FLOW CONTINUES AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED JUST NORTH OF AEX. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG AROUND THE ARA TERMINAL COULD STILL PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR VIS FOR ANOTHER HOUR. MVFR FOG IS ALSO STILL POSSIBLE AROUND BPT AND LFT. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP IN THE UNSTABLE MARINE LAYER WHICH DRIES OUT ABOVE 10K FEET. THE SHOWERS ARE NOT AFFECTING ANY TERMINALS AND SHOULD MIX OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TNITE AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. SWEENEY PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012/ SYNOPSIS... THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RE-BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TO ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FURTHER-UP...A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NEW-MEXICO ROCKIES RIDGES SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. WHILE FURTHER EAST AND NORTH...AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE WILL TRAVEL THROUGH QUEBEC. A ROLLER COASTER VORTICITY (OR SHORTWAVE) TRACK SEPARATES THE NEW MEXICO ANTICYCLONE-QUEBEC CYCLONE CONFIGURATION...WITH THE STEEP DOWN SLIDE EXTENDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOUISIANA-GEORGIA REGION. DISCUSSION... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH LUFKIN THROUGH BATON ROUGE THIS MORNING. THE STALLED FRONT SEPARATES A STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE PINEY HILLS-LAKES REGION FROM AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE COASTAL MARSHES. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...A WEAK GULF RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT SEASONAL. FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...ANOTHER MIDWEST COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL INTO THE ST LOUIS-DALLAS CORRIDOR ON MONDAY...REACHING A GREAT SMOKEY MOUNTAINS TO SHREVEPORT LINE BY TUESDAY. SHORTWAVES EMANATING OUT OF THE TRAVELING MIDWEST FRONT WILL TRAVEL INTO THE FORECAST AREA...SEE AFOREMENTIONED VORTICITY TRACK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN. MARINE... THE DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD WILL BE RUNNING FROM 3 TO 5 SECONDS... WITH THE DIRECTION OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. OUTLOOK... ANOTHER GREAT PLAINS/MIDWEST COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AND EAST...REACHING CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY NEXT SATURDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. 21 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 93 75 93 75 / 20 10 40 10 KBPT 93 76 93 75 / 20 10 30 10 KAEX 96 74 94 73 / 10 10 40 10 KLFT 93 76 93 76 / 30 10 40 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #533771 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:53 AM 12.Aug.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1049 AM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012 .UPDATE... RADAR MORE ACTIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF COUNTY WARNING AREA SPECIFICALLY FROM VERMILION PARISH EAST TO ST MARY AND LOWER ST MARTIN. FORECAST SOUNDING THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE IN THIS RADAER ACTIVE AREA. IN ADDITION...850/700 MB VORTICITY LOBE ALLOWING INCREASED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. LOCAL WRF MODEL ALSO INDICATES BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IN THIS AREA. WILL BRING SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO CHANCE POPS REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS IN THIS AREA AS WELL. WILL REISSUE ZONE FORECAST TO MAKE CHANGES TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO OTHER AREAS. && .DISCUSSION... && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012/ AVIATION...A WEAK RETURN FLOW CONTINUES AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED JUST NORTH OF AEX. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG AROUND THE ARA TERMINAL COULD STILL PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR VIS FOR ANOTHER HOUR. MVFR FOG IS ALSO STILL POSSIBLE AROUND BPT AND LFT. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP IN THE UNSTABLE MARINE LAYER WHICH DRIES OUT ABOVE 10K FEET. THE SHOWERS ARE NOT AFFECTING ANY TERMINALS AND SHOULD MIX OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TNITE AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. SWEENEY PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012/ SYNOPSIS... THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RE-BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TO ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FURTHER-UP...A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NEW-MEXICO ROCKIES RIDGES SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. WHILE FURTHER EAST AND NORTH...AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE WILL TRAVEL THROUGH QUEBEC. A ROLLER COASTER VORTICITY (OR SHORTWAVE) TRACK SEPARATES THE NEW MEXICO ANTICYCLONE-QUEBEC CYCLONE CONFIGURATION...WITH THE STEEP DOWN SLIDE EXTENDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOUISIANA-GEORGIA REGION. DISCUSSION... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH LUFKIN THROUGH BATON ROUGE THIS MORNING. THE STALLED FRONT SEPARATES A STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE PINEY HILLS-LAKES REGION FROM AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE COASTAL MARSHES. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...A WEAK GULF RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT SEASONAL. FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...ANOTHER MIDWEST COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL INTO THE ST LOUIS-DALLAS CORRIDOR ON MONDAY...REACHING A GREAT SMOKEY MOUNTAINS TO SHREVEPORT LINE BY TUESDAY. SHORTWAVES EMANATING OUT OF THE TRAVELING MIDWEST FRONT WILL TRAVEL INTO THE FORECAST AREA...SEE AFOREMENTIONED VORTICITY TRACK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN. MARINE... THE DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD WILL BE RUNNING FROM 3 TO 5 SECONDS... WITH THE DIRECTION OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. OUTLOOK... ANOTHER GREAT PLAINS/MIDWEST COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AND EAST...REACHING CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY NEXT SATURDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. 21 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 93 75 93 75 / 20 10 40 10 KBPT 93 76 93 75 / 20 10 30 10 KAEX 96 74 94 73 / 10 10 40 10 KLFT 93 76 93 76 / 30 10 40 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #533740 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:53 AM 12.Aug.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 649 AM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012 .AVIATION...A WEAK RETURN FLOW CONTINUES AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED JUST NORTH OF AEX. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG AROUND THE ARA TERMINAL COULD STILL PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR VIS FOR ANOTHER HOUR. MVFR FOG IS ALSO STILL POSSIBLE AROUND BPT AND LFT. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP IN THE UNSTABLE MARINE LAYER WHICH DRIES OUT ABOVE 10K FEET. THE SHOWERS ARE NOT AFFECTING ANY TERMINALS AND SHOULD MIX OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TNITE AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. SWEENEY && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012/ SYNOPSIS... THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RE-BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TO ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FURTHER-UP...A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NEW-MEXICO ROCKIES RIDGES SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. WHILE FURTHER EAST AND NORTH...AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE WILL TRAVEL THROUGH QUEBEC. A ROLLER COASTER VORTICITY (OR SHORTWAVE) TRACK SEPARATES THE NEW MEXICO ANTICYCLONE-QUEBEC CYCLONE CONFIGURATION...WITH THE STEEP DOWN SLIDE EXTENDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOUISIANA-GEORGIA REGION. DISCUSSION... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH LUFKIN THROUGH BATON ROUGE THIS MORNING. THE STALLED FRONT SEPARATES A STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE PINEY HILLS-LAKES REGION FROM AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE COASTAL MARSHES. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...A WEAK GULF RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT SEASONAL. FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...ANOTHER MIDWEST COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL INTO THE ST LOUIS-DALLAS CORRIDOR ON MONDAY...REACHING A GREAT SMOKEY MOUNTAINS TO SHREVEPORT LINE BY TUESDAY. SHORTWAVES EMANATING OUT OF THE TRAVELING MIDWEST FRONT WILL TRAVEL INTO THE FORECAST AREA...SEE AFOREMENTIONED VORTICITY TRACK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN. MARINE... THE DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD WILL BE RUNNING FROM 3 TO 5 SECONDS... WITH THE DIRECTION OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. OUTLOOK... ANOTHER GREAT PLAINS/MIDWEST COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AND EAST...REACHING CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY NEXT SATURDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. 21 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 93 76 93 75 93 / 20 10 40 10 40 KBPT 93 76 93 75 93 / 20 10 30 10 40 KAEX 96 74 94 73 95 / 10 10 40 10 40 KLFT 93 76 93 76 94 / 20 10 40 10 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #533705 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:23 AM 12.Aug.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 321 AM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012 .SYNOPSIS... THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RE-BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TO ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FURTHER-UP...A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NEW-MEXICO ROCKIES RIDGES SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. WHILE FURTHER EAST AND NORTH...AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE WILL TRAVEL THROUGH QUEBEC. A ROLLER COASTER VORTICITY (OR SHORTWAVE) TRACK SEPARATES THE NEW MEXICO ANTICYCLONE-QUEBEC CYCLONE CONFIGURATION...WITH THE STEEP DOWN SLIDE EXTENDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOUISIANA-GEORGIA REGION. && .DISCUSSION... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH LUFKIN THROUGH BATON ROUGE THIS MORNING. THE STALLED FRONT SEPARATES A STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE PINEY HILLS-LAKES REGION FROM AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE COASTAL MARSHES. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...A WEAK GULF RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT SEASONAL. FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...ANOTHER MIDWEST COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL INTO THE ST LOUIS-DALLAS CORRIDOR ON MONDAY...REACHING A GREAT SMOKEY MOUNTAINS TO SHREVEPORT LINE BY TUESDAY. SHORTWAVES EMANATING OUT OF THE TRAVELING MIDWEST FRONT WILL TRAVEL INTO THE FORECAST AREA...SEE AFOREMENTIONED VORTICITY TRACK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN. && .MARINE... THE DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD WILL BE RUNNING FROM 3 TO 5 SECONDS... WITH THE DIRECTION OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. && .OUTLOOK... ANOTHER GREAT PLAINS/MIDWEST COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AND EAST...REACHING CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY NEXT SATURDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 93 76 93 75 93 / 20 10 40 10 40 KBPT 93 76 93 75 93 / 20 10 30 10 40 KAEX 96 74 94 73 95 / 10 10 40 10 40 KLFT 93 76 93 76 94 / 20 10 40 10 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && JT $$ |
| #533677 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:15 AM 12.Aug.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1202 AM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012 .DISCUSSION... FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. && .AVIATION... VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LIGHT MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THE I-10/COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY IN THE MORNING GIVING WAY TO FAIR WX CU BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. 13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2012/ DISCUSSION... CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE...MOST SHOWERS HAVE ENDED NOW. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ANOTHER 7-10 DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS OF UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2012/ DISCUSSION... 00Z TAF PACKAGE. AVIATION... ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES/PARISHES...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE AMDS...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT THAT VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. 13 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2012/ SYNOPSIS... WEAK STALLED SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACRS THE CWA...WITH UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS FINALLY STARTING TO EDGE INTO NRN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS...KJAS REGISTERED A DEWPOINT OF 67...KESF 68 AND FORT POLK ASOS SITES 68-69. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRY TO POP UP OVER LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10. LATEST UPPER AIR AND WATER VAPOR TRENDS INDICATE MIDLVL DRY AIR PUSHING S INTO THE AREA. THE UPPER GRT LAKES LOW AND ASSOCIATED ERN CONUS TROF CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW BUILDING INTO ERN TX AND WRN LA. DISCUSSION... CNTL LA INTO THE LAKES AREA OF TX COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK FM THE HUMIDITY TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS LOWER DEWPOINT AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA ON VERY LIGHT NELY WINDS. A TYPICAL WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACRS OUR SRN ZONES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S...WHILE LOW TEMPS ACRS CNTL LA COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S. OTHERWISE...THE STALLED FRONT WILL TRAVEL BACK NORTH SUNDAY...ALLOWING WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR TO SURGE BACK OVER THE REGION. THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD BACK EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...ARCING INTO AN ELONGATED RIDGE FM THE SW ACRS THE NRN GULF COAST...EASTWARD TO FLA AND THE WRN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AFTN HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S. W/NW FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED N OF THE AREA...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH THE FLOW...HELPING TO KEEP THE RIDGE FLATTENED THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN ALOFT WILL GIVE A LITTLE PUSH TO COLD FRONTS ATTEMPTING TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK. THE FIRST OF THESE FRONTS WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD STALL BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH BRINGING THIS FRONT INTO THE AREA...WHICH COULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MARINE... A MOSTLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW WITH JUST ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING SHOWERS POSSIBLE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 73 94 75 95 / 10 10 10 20 KBPT 77 94 76 95 / 10 10 10 20 KAEX 69 96 74 96 / 10 10 10 30 KLFT 74 94 76 95 / 10 20 10 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
