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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Miami, FL (MFL) (South Florida) Selection: |
| #535251 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:38 PM 18.Aug.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 736 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012 .UPDATE... THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY TONIGHT OVER THE CWA...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS EXTENDING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. SO WILL REMOVE THE POPS OVER THE LAND AREAS FOR TONIGHT. THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT DUE TO THE LAND BREEZES SETTING UP AND PUSHING INTO THE LOCAL WATERS. SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS GOING FOR THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS TONIGHT. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED. && .AVIATION... ONLY SHOWERS THAT REMAIN ATTM ARE OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING WITH NO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. SAME SCENARIO IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. THIS SHOULD DELAY THE ONSET OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AGAIN THUS DELAYING THE ONSET OF ANY COASTAL CONVECTION. PLACED VCSH AT ALL SITES BEGINNING AT 18Z TOMORROW. && .UPDATED...54/BNB .AVIATION...10/CD .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012/ DISCUSSION... THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES INFLUENCING THE REGION INCLUDE A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S...A FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE BAHAMAS. THESE FEATURES RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALL OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN GULF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WAS PRETTY CONSISTENT INDICATING THAT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY THAT A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FORECAST TO BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE DURING THIS PERIOD. SO SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE FORECAST IS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH THE MOST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...I.E. PALM BEACH COUNTY AND IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETTER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGION. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OBVIOUSLY MAINTAIN WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PENINSULA SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MARINE... LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS DURING THIS PERIOD. FIRE WEATHER... NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 76 91 76 91 / 30 40 30 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 78 89 78 90 / 20 30 20 30 MIAMI 78 91 78 91 / 20 30 20 30 NAPLES 76 90 76 91 / 20 30 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #535202 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:50 PM 18.Aug.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 244 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012 .DISCUSSION... THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES INFLUENCING THE REGION INCLUDE A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S...A FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE BAHAMAS. THESE FEATURES RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALL OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN GULF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WAS PRETTY CONSISTENT INDICATING THAT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY THAT A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FORECAST TO BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE DURING THIS PERIOD. SO SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE FORECAST IS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH THE MOST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...I.E. PALM BEACH COUNTY AND IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETTER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGION. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OBVIOUSLY MAINTAIN WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PENINSULA SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS DURING THIS PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 76 91 76 91 / 30 40 30 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 78 89 78 90 / 20 30 20 30 MIAMI 78 91 78 91 / 20 30 20 30 NAPLES 76 90 76 91 / 20 30 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #535195 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:53 PM 18.Aug.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 147 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012 .AVIATION... THE OVERALL REASONING TODAY IS THAT UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD CONCENTRATE OVER THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO GET STARTED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONCE IT DEVELOPS, THE COMBINATION OF EASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IN THE INTERIOR AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS ANYWHERE FROM PALM BEACH TO CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STORMS IS FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF OUTFLOWS FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. THIS REASONING IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION COULD START A LITTLE LATER THAN EXPECTED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A FEW INVERSION LAYERS IN THE SOUNDING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012/ UPDATE... THE 12Z SOUNDING AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATED CONTINUING SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD FAVOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA...WHICH IS INDICATED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH MORE NUMEROUS OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE LAKE. THE CURRENT GUIDANCE IS IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO THE SHORT OR LONG TERM PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. 60 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012/ AVIATION... HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER S FLA AND THE FLA STRAITS RESPECTIVELY AT THIS TIME. THIS GIVES A LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL S-SW WIND FLOW OVER S FLA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA OVER THE ATLC AT THIS TIME SE OF MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES AND WILL HAVE VCSH IN THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER E COAST TERMINALS THROUGH 16Z THEN VCTS AS SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOP INLAND/ALONG E COAST SEA BREEZE AND MOVE ENE TOWARD/OVER THE E COAST INTO THE ATLC. AT KAPF ...VCSH WITH VCTS 14Z-17Z WHEN TSRA MOVE ENE INLAND. SURFACE WINDS E COAST CURRENTLY CALM TO SSW < 5 KTS AND THE LIGHT SSW WIND FLOW MAY PERSIST E COAST TERMINALS THROUGH 16Z. AFT 16Z SE-SSE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AROUND 10 KNOTS EXCEPT AT KTMB WHERE SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN SSW-SW < 10 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z. AT KAPF CURRENT SURFACE WINDS CALM TO SE < 5 KNOTS BECOMING SW-WSW 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012/ DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE JUST THAT. IN ADDITION, PWAT IS FORECAST TO ALSO HOVER AROUND TWO INCHES WHICH IS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR MID AUGUST. HAVING THE TROUGH IN PLACE, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LITTLE IMPULSES RACING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ONE SUCH WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY BUT EXACT TIMING WILL BE THE KEY FACTOR IN DETERMINING WHETHER IT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO ANY STRONG STORMS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAPID REFRESH DOES SHOW A GOOD LINE OF TSRA DEVELOPING AND MOVING TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS AT AROUND 18Z DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST COAST METRO REGION AND IT PERFORMED VERY WELL YESTERDAY. GIVEN THE ABOVE DISCUSSION CANNOT RULE OUT ITS SOLUTION AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS BRINGING THE HIGHEST POPS BACK TO THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES BEING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS MAINLY BROWARD AND INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTIES NORTHWARD. FOR SUNDAY, THE MODELS CONTINUE THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH BUT IN A WEAKER STATE AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING ANOTHER STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH KEEPS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT, IT DOES NOT BUILD THE RIDGE BACK TO THE NORTH AS FAST AS IT WAS INDICATING EARLIER WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW AND KEEPING PWAT AT JUST UNDER TWO INCHES. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW SO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE IN TREND WILL SHOW A BLEND OF THESE TWO MODELS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. LOOKING INTO MONDAY AND THE REST OF THE WEEK, MID LEVEL TROUGH DOES NOT MOVE MUCH AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOW SHOW PWAT`S REMAINING AT OR JUST BELOW TWO INCHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOSE TO AVERAGE CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY BUT FAVORING THE LAKE REGION AS FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY. MARINE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 4 FEET...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR STORM. FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 76 90 78 90 / 30 50 30 30 FORT LAUDERDALE 78 90 79 91 / 20 50 30 30 MIAMI 78 90 78 91 / 20 50 30 30 NAPLES 76 90 77 90 / 20 30 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #535160 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:59 AM 18.Aug.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 954 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012 .UPDATE... THE 12Z SOUNDING AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATED CONTINUING SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD FAVOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA...WHICH IS INDICATED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH MORE NUMEROUS OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE LAKE. THE CURRENT GUIDANCE IS IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO THE SHORT OR LONG TERM PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. 60 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012/ AVIATION... HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER S FLA AND THE FLA STRAITS RESPECTIVELY AT THIS TIME. THIS GIVES A LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL S-SW WIND FLOW OVER S FLA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA OVER THE ATLC AT THIS TIME SE OF MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES AND WILL HAVE VCSH IN THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER E COAST TERMINALS THROUGH 16Z THEN VCTS AS SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOP INLAND/ALONG E COAST SEA BREEZE AND MOVE ENE TOWARD/OVER THE E COAST INTO THE ATLC. AT KAPF ...VCSH WITH VCTS 14Z-17Z WHEN TSRA MOVE ENE INLAND. SURFACE WINDS E COAST CURRENTLY CALM TO SSW < 5 KTS AND THE LIGHT SSW WIND FLOW MAY PERSIST E COAST TERMINALS THROUGH 16Z. AFT 16Z SE-SSE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AROUND 10 KNOTS EXCEPT AT KTMB WHERE SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN SSW-SW < 10 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z. AT KAPF CURRENT SURFACE WINDS CALM TO SE < 5 KNOTS BECOMING SW-WSW 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012/ DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE JUST THAT. IN ADDITION, PWAT IS FORECAST TO ALSO HOVER AROUND TWO INCHES WHICH IS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR MID AUGUST. HAVING THE TROUGH IN PLACE, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LITTLE IMPULSES RACING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ONE SUCH WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY BUT EXACT TIMING WILL BE THE KEY FACTOR IN DETERMINING WHETHER IT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO ANY STRONG STORMS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAPID REFRESH DOES SHOW A GOOD LINE OF TSRA DEVELOPING AND MOVING TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS AT AROUND 18Z DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST COAST METRO REGION AND IT PERFORMED VERY WELL YESTERDAY. GIVEN THE ABOVE DISCUSSION CANNOT RULE OUT ITS SOLUTION AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS BRINGING THE HIGHEST POPS BACK TO THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES BEING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS MAINLY BROWARD AND INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTIES NORTHWARD. FOR SUNDAY, THE MODELS CONTINUE THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH BUT IN A WEAKER STATE AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING ANOTHER STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH KEEPS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT, IT DOES NOT BUILD THE RIDGE BACK TO THE NORTH AS FAST AS IT WAS INDICATING EARLIER WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW AND KEEPING PWAT AT JUST UNDER TWO INCHES. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW SO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE IN TREND WILL SHOW A BLEND OF THESE TWO MODELS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. LOOKING INTO MONDAY AND THE REST OF THE WEEK, MID LEVEL TROUGH DOES NOT MOVE MUCH AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOW SHOW PWAT`S REMAINING AT OR JUST BELOW TWO INCHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOSE TO AVERAGE CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY BUT FAVORING THE LAKE REGION AS FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY. MARINE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 4 FEET...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR STORM. FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 89 76 90 78 / 60 30 50 30 FORT LAUDERDALE 89 78 90 79 / 50 20 50 30 MIAMI 90 78 90 78 / 50 20 50 30 NAPLES 90 76 90 77 / 30 20 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #535144 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:32 AM 18.Aug.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 725 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012 .AVIATION... HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER S FLA AND THE FLA STRAITS RESPECTIVELY AT THIS TIME. THIS GIVES A LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL S-SW WIND FLOW OVER S FLA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA OVER THE ATLC AT THIS TIME SE OF MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES AND WILL HAVE VCSH IN THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER E COAST TERMINALS THROUGH 16Z THEN VCTS AS SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOP INLAND/ALONG E COAST SEA BREEZE AND MOVE ENE TOWARD/OVER THE E COAST INTO THE ATLC. AT KAPF ...VCSH WITH VCTS 14Z-17Z WHEN TSRA MOVE ENE INLAND. SURFACE WINDS E COAST CURRENTLY CALM TO SSW < 5 KTS AND THE LIGHT SSW WIND FLOW MAY PERSIST E COAST TERMINALS THROUGH 16Z. AFT 16Z SE-SSE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AROUND 10 KNOTS EXCEPT AT KTMB WHERE SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN SSW-SW < 10 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z. AT KAPF CURRENT SURFACE WINDS CALM TO SE < 5 KNOTS BECOMING SW-WSW 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012/ DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE JUST THAT. IN ADDITION, PWAT IS FORECAST TO ALSO HOVER AROUND TWO INCHES WHICH IS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR MID AUGUST. HAVING THE TROUGH IN PLACE, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LITTLE IMPULSES RACING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ONE SUCH WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY BUT EXACT TIMING WILL BE THE KEY FACTOR IN DETERMINING WHETHER IT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO ANY STRONG STORMS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAPID REFRESH DOES SHOW A GOOD LINE OF TSRA DEVELOPING AND MOVING TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS AT AROUND 18Z DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST COAST METRO REGION AND IT PERFORMED VERY WELL YESTERDAY. GIVEN THE ABOVE DISCUSSION CANNOT RULE OUT ITS SOLUTION AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS BRINGING THE HIGHEST POPS BACK TO THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES BEING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS MAINLY BROWARD AND INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTIES NORTHWARD. FOR SUNDAY, THE MODELS CONTINUE THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH BUT IN A WEAKER STATE AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING ANOTHER STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH KEEPS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT, IT DOES NOT BUILD THE RIDGE BACK TO THE NORTH AS FAST AS IT WAS INDICATING EARLIER WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW AND KEEPING PWAT AT JUST UNDER TWO INCHES. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW SO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE IN TREND WILL SHOW A BLEND OF THESE TWO MODELS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. LOOKING INTO MONDAY AND THE REST OF THE WEEK, MID LEVEL TROUGH DOES NOT MOVE MUCH AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOW SHOW PWAT`S REMAINING AT OR JUST BELOW TWO INCHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOSE TO AVERAGE CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY BUT FAVORING THE LAKE REGION AS FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY. MARINE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 4 FEET...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR STORM. FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 89 76 90 78 / 60 30 50 30 FORT LAUDERDALE 89 78 90 79 / 50 20 50 30 MIAMI 90 78 90 78 / 50 20 50 30 NAPLES 90 76 90 77 / 30 20 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #535094 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:05 AM 18.Aug.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 252 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012 .DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE JUST THAT. IN ADDITION, PWAT IS FORECAST TO ALSO HOVER AROUND TWO INCHES WHICH IS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR MID AUGUST. HAVING THE TROUGH IN PLACE, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LITTLE IMPULSES RACING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ONE SUCH WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY BUT EXACT TIMING WILL BE THE KEY FACTOR IN DETERMINING WHETHER IT CAN CONTRIBUTE TO ANY STRONG STORMS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAPID REFRESH DOES SHOW A GOOD LINE OF TSRA DEVELOPING AND MOVING TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS AT AROUND 18Z DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST COAST METRO REGION AND IT PERFORMED VERY WELL YESTERDAY. GIVEN THE ABOVE DISCUSSION CANNOT RULE OUT ITS SOLUTION AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS BRINGING THE HIGHEST POPS BACK TO THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES BEING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS MAINLY BROWARD AND INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTIES NORTHWARD. FOR SUNDAY, THE MODELS CONTINUE THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH BUT IN A WEAKER STATE AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING ANOTHER STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH KEEPS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT, IT DOES NOT BUILD THE RIDGE BACK TO THE NORTH AS FAST AS IT WAS INDICATING EARLIER WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW AND KEEPING PWAT AT JUST UNDER TWO INCHES. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW SO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE IN TREND WILL SHOW A BLEND OF THESE TWO MODELS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. LOOKING INTO MONDAY AND THE REST OF THE WEEK, MID LEVEL TROUGH DOES NOT MOVE MUCH AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOW SHOW PWAT`S REMAINING AT OR JUST BELOW TWO INCHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOSE TO AVERAGE CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY BUT FAVORING THE LAKE REGION AS FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY. && .MARINE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 4 FEET...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR STORM. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 89 76 90 78 / 60 30 50 30 FORT LAUDERDALE 89 78 90 79 / 50 20 50 30 MIAMI 90 78 90 78 / 50 20 50 30 NAPLES 90 76 90 77 / 30 20 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #535077 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:35 AM 18.Aug.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1229 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012 .AVIATION...HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER S FLA AND THE FLA STRAITS RESPECTIVELY. THIS GIVES A LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL S-SW WIND FLOW OVER S FLA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO WEATHER E COAST TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z THEN VCTS AS SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOP INLAND AND MOVE ENE TOWARD THE E COAST. AT KAPF...VCSH INITIALLY WITH VCTS 14Z-17Z WHEN TSRA MOVE INLAND AND TO THE E. SURFACE WINDS CURRENTLY CALM TO SSE < 5 KTS POSSIBLY BECOMING LIGHT SSW < 5 KNOTS FROM 09Z TO 17Z. AFT 18Z SE-SSE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AROUND 10 KNOTS EXCEPT AT KTMB WHERE SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN SSW-SW < 10 KNOTS. AT KAPF CURRENT SURFACE WINDS SE < 5 KNOTS BECOMING SW-WSW 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 90 77 89 77 / 30 20 20 30 FORT LAUDERDALE 90 77 90 78 BARRY BAXTER/ 30 20 20 30 MIAMI 90 78 90 78 / 40 20 20 30 NAPLES 90 76 91 76 / 30 20 20 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
