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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Melbourne, FL (East Central Florida) Selection: |
| #535250 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:38 PM 18.Aug.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 733 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012 .DISCUSSION...DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER STORMS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED CONVECTION TO END OVER THE AREA. NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO THE REST OF THE EVENING SO HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 70S. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD CIGS REMAINING ABOVE 15K FT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFT... PRODUCING TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS. && .MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE SOUTH OF FLORIDA WILL KEEP A S/SW FLOW OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #535207 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:05 PM 18.Aug.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 300 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012 .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT...QUICK PROGRESSION OF STORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH TRAILING CLOUD CANOPY HAS JUST ABOUT STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE DAY. A FEW POCKETS OF HEATING WILL OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE STORMS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DID NOT OCCUR AND THE DEBRIS CLOUDS THIN OUT. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EVENING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING POCKETS OF INSTABILITY. SUN-MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY KEEPING A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRUNG OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. MOS POPS LOOK LOW WITH VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT. THE MODEL MIGHT BE KEYING ON 700 MB TEMPS AROUND 10 CELSIUS...BUT THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND MOISTURE VALUES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL SUGGEST AT LEAST CLIMO POPS OF 40 PERCENT. HAVE GONE WITH 50 PERCENT POPS ON SUN EXCEPT 40 PERCENT IN THE FAR SOUTH. ON MON WILL KEEP THE PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS WHICH ARE AROUND 40 PERCENT. TUE-SAT (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT OUT ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO LIFT NORTH INTO CENTRAL FL BY LATE WEEK. SW STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH STORMS BACK TOWARD THE FL EAST COAST BUT SHOULD BECOME NOTICEABLY WEAKER BY THU PRODUCING SLOWER MOVING STORMS. PRESENCE OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY EACH AFTN SHOULD HELP FOCUS STORMS. THERE LOOKS TO BE SUBTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES/DIFFERENCES IN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE SO WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED POPS (30-50 PERCENT) EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL EACH DAY. && .AVIATION... MAINLY VFR INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS QUICKER THAN NORMAL PROGRESSION OF STORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA HAS STABILIZED MOST OF THE AREA AND LEFT BEHIND A CANOPY OF MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. A FEW POCKETS OF HEATING MAY STILL OCCUR WHERE THE CLOUDS THIN OUT AND LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY THE NORTHERN TIER FROM KLEE-KSFB-KDAB. DO NOT SEE A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR SUNDAY WITH STORMS MARCHING WEST-EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA. LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FLOW DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG...SO THE OCCURRENCE OF STORMS SHOULD BE A FEW HOURS LATER THAN TODAY. && .MARINE... TONIGHT-THU...PERSISTENT TROFFING PATTERN OVR THE ERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER THE S HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...THEN THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD LIFT INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TOWARDS LATE WEEK. A LIGHT TO GENTLE W/SW BREEZE WILL PREVAIL INTO MID WEEK... SHIFTING ONSHORE EACH AFTN AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMS AND PUSHES INLAND. NOCTURNAL WIND ENHANCEMENT OVR THE OPEN ATLC WILL GENERATE A GENTLE TO MODERATE NIGHTTIME BREEZE. SEAS 1-2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE. AFTN/EARLY EVE STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR BOATERS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 91 76 90 / 20 50 20 40 MCO 74 92 75 92 / 20 50 20 40 MLB 75 91 75 91 / 20 50 20 30 VRB 74 92 75 91 / 20 40 20 30 LEE 75 93 77 92 / 20 50 20 50 SFB 77 93 76 92 / 20 50 20 40 ORL 76 93 77 92 / 20 50 20 40 FPR 75 91 74 90 / 20 40 20 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #535155 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:38 AM 18.Aug.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 927 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012 .DISCUSSION... ...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON... .DISCUSSION... TODAY...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY HAS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ONE VORT MAX PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE LOOKS WEAK BUT COMBINED WITH SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS MAY SHIFT TO SOUTHERN AREAS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE NOTED IN THE MORNING SOUNDINGS IS THAT WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 15-20 KNOTS. MORNING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN GULF HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO THE COAST WITH CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SPREADING INLAND...WITH SOME EXTENDING INTO LAKE AND METRO ORLANDO. THIS CLOUDINESS WILL DISRUPT HEATING SOME THIS MORNING...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT THAT CONVECTION WILL MARCH FROM WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA ACROSS INTERIOR COUNTIES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD REACH THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND MID-LATE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOK SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BUT WITH SLIGHTLY QUICKER PROGRESSION ACROSS THE PENINSULA...THERE WILL BE A LIMITED TIME FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND. THE BOUNDARY MAY JUST REMAINED PINNED ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF CANAVERAL. EXPECT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS BOTH INLAND AND THE COAST...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRONG STORMS ALONG THE COAST...PROBABLY THE TREASURE COAST. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. ALSO EXPECT QUITE GUSTY WINDS...LIKE THOSE THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS GENERAL ENOUGH TO COVER THE EXPECTED SCENARIO AND NOT PLANNING ANY CHANGES. && .AVIATION... THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TIMING OF STORMS. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHTLY EARLIER ONSET THAN YESTERDAY...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON WHAT EFFECTS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL HAVE. STORMS WILL BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN YESTERDAY...SO THE PERIOD OF ADVERSE WEATHER AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN HOUR. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...GUST FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS. THE FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY MAY MOVE THROUGH QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER INSTABILITY...SO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS MAY PUSH BACK ACROSS A FEW TERMINALS...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE WATERS CONTINUES THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THE FLOW LOOKS ENHANCED TO AROUND 15 KNOTS IN THE NORTH DUE TO LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR MARINERS WILL BE STORMS SWEEPING OFFSHORE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL WHERE A SEA BREEZE POSSIBLY SETS UP. THE GREATEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #535105 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:56 AM 18.Aug.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 347 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012 .DISCUSSION... ...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON... CURRENT/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SHUNTED SOUTH AND EAST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS PERIOD. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ONCE AGAIN. BOTH GFS/NAM ARE NOT ALLOWING FOR EASY FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE ON THIS DAY. HOWEVER...BELIEVE IT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND POSSIBLY UP TOWARDS THE CAPE. INLAND MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW AND IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN PINNED NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. TROUGHINESS REMAINS THE KEY WORD TO DESCRIBE THE MID-LEVELS AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL PERIODICALLY TRAVERSE THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH AGAIN FOR EARLY INITIATION OF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AS WAS THE CASE WITH THE PREVIOUS DAY. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB WILL REMAIN BETWEEN -7C AND -8C. WILL NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY SATURATED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALSO WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF EARLY CONVECTION CREATES A DENSE MID/UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS FIELD CONTAMINATING SOME AREAS...PUSHING CONVECTION CHANCES BACK LATER IN THE DAY FOR SOME PLACES...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES WITH 50 PERCENT POPS AREAWIDE. IF WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE ABLE TO BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS...WE MAY VERY WELL HAVE TO DEAL WITH POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUDS OR EVEN A SHORT-LIVED LANDSPOUT TYPE TORNADO NEAR THE COAST. OTHER THREATS REMAIN STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS SOME COIN SMALL HAIL. FLOODING IMPACT WILL REMAIN LOW AS IT APPEARS MOVEMENT WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST OR NORTHEAST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THE WESTERLY FLOW REGIME CONTINUES AND EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AREAWIDE. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING WE MAY SEE SOME LOCALES REACH THE MIDDLE 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE IN THE 70S. SUN...THE RATHER STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO BACK MORE TO THE SW AND DECREASE SOMEWHAT AS EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE MS VALLEY ALLOWING THE ATLC RIDGE TO BUILD A LITTLE NORTH FROM THE BAHAMAS/CUBA. AS A RESULT...THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP A LITTLE EARLIER. GFS SHOWS SOME SLIGHT DRYING ACROSS THE AREA...AND COMBINED WITH WEAKER FLOW...THINK THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SLOWER STORM MOTION OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND DELAY ONSET OF STORMS A BIT. BUT SW STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA FOR STORMS IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVE SO WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE (40 PERCENT). A FEW STRONG STORMS EXPECTED SINCE BETTER HEATING SHOULD TAKE PLACE PRIOR TO INTERACTION WITH SEA BREEZE. MAX TEMPS LOWER 90S COAST AND MID 90S INTERIOR. MON-FRI...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT OUT ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO LIFT NORTH INTO CENTRAL FL BY LATE WEEK. SW STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH STORMS BACK TOWARD THE FL EAST COAST BUT SHOULD BECOME NOTICEABLY WEAKER BY THU PRODUCING SLOWER MOVING STORMS. PRESENCE OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY EACH AFTN SHOULD HELP FOCUS STORMS. THERE LOOKS TO BE SUBTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES/DIFFERENCES IN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE SO WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED POPS (30-50 PERCENT) EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL EACH DAY. && .AVIATION... VFR ALL SITES THRU 18/14Z. SCT MVFR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING WEST CENTRAL FL AND MOVING W/SW ENTERING THE CENTRAL PENINSULA BY EARLY AFTERNOON CONTINUE TWDS THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON. FEW STRONG STORMS EXPECTED AGAIN AS MID-LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE AREA. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. SW WINDS MAINLY 10-15 KTS WITH SE/ESE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL BREVARD/TREASURE COAST BY EARLY-MID AFTN WITH FORMATION OF THE ECSB. OFFSHORE MOVING CELLS...SOME STRONG...A GOOD BET AGAIN WITH A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN...PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING... STILL IN PLACE. SEAS MAINLY 1-2 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2-3 FT OFFSHORE. PERSISTENT TROFFING PATTERN OVR THE ERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER THE S HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA INTO NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO GENTLE W/SW BREEZE WILL RESULT...SHIFTING ONSHORE EACH AFTN AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMS AND PUSHES INLAND. NOCTURNAL WIND ENHANCEMENT OVR THE OPEN ATLC WILL GENERATE A GENTLE TO MODERATE NIGHTTIME BREEZE. SEAS 1-2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE. AFTN/EARLY EVE STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR BOATERS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 90 73 91 76 / 50 30 40 30 MCO 92 75 93 75 / 50 30 40 20 MLB 91 74 91 76 / 50 30 30 30 VRB 91 73 92 75 / 50 30 30 30 LEE 91 75 94 77 / 50 30 40 20 SFB 92 75 94 77 / 50 30 40 20 ORL 92 76 93 77 / 50 30 40 20 FPR 90 73 91 75 / 50 30 30 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
