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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Miami, FL (MFL) (South Florida) Selection: |
| #535733 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:56 PM 20.Aug.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 951 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012 .UPDATE...ONLY UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS TO INCLUDE AREAS FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO ALONG THE GULF COAST IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. A LINE OF CONVECTION IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TAMPA AREA AND RACING SOUTHEAST WITH A FEW CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. WHILE THIS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A TSTORM OR TWO LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. /GREGORIA && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012/ AVIATION... MOST OF THE EVENING CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED...BUT ASSIGNED VCTS FOR TERMINAL KBPI THROUGH 03Z WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AND ALSO POSSIBLE FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. ASSIGNED VCSH REMAINING EAST COAST TERMINALS AT 00Z WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THE REMAINING EVENING HOURS. BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINING EVENING HOURS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH OCCURRENCE OF ANY SHOWERS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND IS CURRENTLY ACROSS GULF WATERS TO THE WEST OF PUNTA GORDA AND FT MYERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A THUNDERSTORM COULD AFFECT TERMINAL KAPF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY BUT ONLY VCSH ASSIGNED. 60 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012/ .DRIER WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK... .WATCHING THE TROPICS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK... SHORT TERM... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WAS KEEPING THE CWA IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES WERE ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH COASTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCATTERED POPS OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH COUNTY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS TAPERING DOWN TO ISOLATED POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. BUT THE LOCAL WATERS OF THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COULD STILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT...DUE TO THE LAND BREEZES SETTING UP AND PUSHING INTO THE LOCAL WATERS. SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS FOR TONIGHT...WHILE REST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE HIGH OVER THE BAHAMAS SLOWLY WEAKENS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS WILL PUSH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER (DUST LAYER) AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WEST NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SAHARAN AIR LAYER (DUST LAYER) WILL HELP TO REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SO WILL REDUCE THE POPS TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...EXCEPT FOR 40 PERCENT ON TUESDAY FOR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA AND PALM BEACH COUNTY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD ALSO BECOME STRONG ON TUESDAY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREAS AND PALM BEACH COUNTY...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER (DUST LAYER) AND THE MOISTURE TO THE NORTH. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAINFALL. LONG TERM... THE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SOME OF THE MODELS MOVE THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND... AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS MOVE THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND THEN NORTHWARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SO AT THIS TIME...PLAN ON KEEPING THE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. MARINE... THE WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BEFORE SWINGING TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SO NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FIRE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 77 92 77 92 / 20 40 20 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 78 92 78 92 / 20 30 10 20 MIAMI 79 93 79 93 / 10 20 10 20 NAPLES 77 91 77 91 / 20 20 10 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #535718 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:05 PM 20.Aug.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 758 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012 .AVIATION... MOST OF THE EVENING CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED...BUT ASSIGNED VCTS FOR TERMINAL KBPI THROUGH 03Z WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AND ALSO POSSIBLE FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. ASSIGNED VCSH REMAINING EAST COAST TERMINALS AT 00Z WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THE REMAINING EVENING HOURS. BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINING EVENING HOURS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH OCCURRENCE OF ANY SHOWERS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND IS CURRENTLY ACROSS GULF WATERS TO THE WEST OF PUNTA GORDA AND FT MYERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A THUNDERSTORM COULD AFFECT TERMINAL KAPF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY BUT ONLY VCSH ASSIGNED. 60 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012/ ..DRIER WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK... ..WATCHING THE TROPICS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK... SHORT TERM... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WAS KEEPING THE CWA IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES WERE ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH COASTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCATTERED POPS OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH COUNTY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS TAPERING DOWN TO ISOLATED POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. BUT THE LOCAL WATERS OF THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COULD STILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT...DUE TO THE LAND BREEZES SETTING UP AND PUSHING INTO THE LOCAL WATERS. SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS FOR TONIGHT...WHILE REST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE HIGH OVER THE BAHAMAS SLOWLY WEAKENS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS WILL PUSH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER (DUST LAYER) AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WEST NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SAHARAN AIR LAYER (DUST LAYER) WILL HELP TO REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SO WILL REDUCE THE POPS TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...EXCEPT FOR 40 PERCENT ON TUESDAY FOR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA AND PALM BEACH COUNTY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD ALSO BECOME STRONG ON TUESDAY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREAS AND PALM BEACH COUNTY...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER (DUST LAYER) AND THE MOISTURE TO THE NORTH. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAINFALL. LONG TERM... THE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SOME OF THE MODELS MOVE THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND... AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS MOVE THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND THEN NORTHWARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SO AT THIS TIME...PLAN ON KEEPING THE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. MARINE... THE WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BEFORE SWINGING TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SO NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FIRE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 77 92 77 92 / 30 40 20 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 78 92 78 92 / 20 30 10 20 MIAMI 79 93 79 93 / 20 20 10 20 NAPLES 77 91 77 91 / 20 20 10 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #535670 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:05 PM 20.Aug.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 257 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012 ...DRIER WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK... ...WATCHING THE TROPICS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK... .SHORT TERM... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WAS KEEPING THE CWA IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES WERE ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH COASTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCATTERED POPS OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH COUNTY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS TAPERING DOWN TO ISOLATED POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. BUT THE LOCAL WATERS OF THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COULD STILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT...DUE TO THE LAND BREEZES SETTING UP AND PUSHING INTO THE LOCAL WATERS. SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS FOR TONIGHT...WHILE REST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE HIGH OVER THE BAHAMAS SLOWLY WEAKENS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS WILL PUSH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER (DUST LAYER) AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WEST NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SAHARAN AIR LAYER (DUST LAYER) WILL HELP TO REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SO WILL REDUCE THE POPS TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...EXCEPT FOR 40 PERCENT ON TUESDAY FOR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA AND PALM BEACH COUNTY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD ALSO BECOME STRONG ON TUESDAY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREAS AND PALM BEACH COUNTY...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER (DUST LAYER) AND THE MOISTURE TO THE NORTH. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAINFALL. .LONG TERM... THE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SOME OF THE MODELS MOVE THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND... AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS MOVE THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND THEN NORTHWARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SO AT THIS TIME...PLAN ON KEEPING THE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. && .MARINE... THE WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BEFORE SWINGING TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SO NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FIRE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 77 92 77 92 / 30 40 20 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 78 92 78 92 / 20 30 10 20 MIAMI 79 93 79 93 / 20 20 10 20 NAPLES 77 91 77 91 / 20 20 10 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #535648 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:26 PM 20.Aug.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 120 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012 .AVIATION... HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER S FLA AND THE FLA STRAITS RESPECTIVELY GIVING S FLA A LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL S-SW WIND FLOW. EXPECT MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY KFLL NORTHWARD...BUT INTRODUCED VCSH FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AS THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH 21Z. AT KAPF...TSRA WILL DEVELOP INLAND WELL NE-E OF THE TERMINAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND VCTS NOT IN TAF AS WELL. SEA BREEZES HAVE PUSHED INLAND...AND EXPECT SE WIND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT...WITH THE SEA BREEZES PUSHING INLAND ON TUESDAY 14-16Z. DRIER AIR EAST OF THE REGION MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY STORMS UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012/ UPDATE... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE TROUGH AND HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY ALLOWING FOR A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW OVER THE CWA. THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES WILL ALSO DEVELOP TODAY OVER THE CWA...WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE REMAINING OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZES. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE SEA AND LAKE BREEZES COLLIDE. SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST SCATTERED POPS TODAY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY TAPERING DOWN TO ISOLATED POPS OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG STORMS WILL BE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED. UPDATED...54/BNB PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012/ AVIATION... HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER S FLA AND THE FLA STRAITS RESPECTIVELY GIVING S FLA A LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL S-SW WIND FLOW. NO WEATHER E COAST TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z THEN VCTS AT KPBI, KFXE AND KFLL AS SW STEERING WINDS BRING INLAND SCATTERED TSRA NE TOWARD THE E COAST. WILL LEAVE WEATHER OUT OF MIAMI DADE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME BUT MAY ADD VCTS LATER AS CONDITIONS DEVELOP. AT KAPF...A FEW STRAY MORNING SHRA POSSIBLE BUT NOT IN TAF AT THIS TIME. TSRA WILL DEVELOP INLAND WELL NE-E OF THE TERMINAL LATER TODAY AND VCTS NOT IN TAF AS WELL. SURFACE WINDS E COAST CURRENTLY CALM TO SSW-SW < 5 KTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THROUGH 15Z THEN AN E COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT THE LIGHT SSW WIND FLOW THOUGH MAY PERSIST AT KTMB THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT KAPF CURRENT SURFACE WIND CALM TO SSE < 5 KNOTS BECOMING SW-WSW AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM MOVING ACROSS ANY OF THE TERMINALS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012/ SHORT TERM...[ TODAY-WEDNESDAY ] THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST OVER THE KEYS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS CHARACTERIZED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WITH THE MAIN FEATURES BEING A POSITIVELY- TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE ROCKIES OUT WEST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A FEW PIECES OF ENERGY TRANSLATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH HAS MAINTAINED A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS SHOWER/TSTMS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. THE LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND GENERALLY INDICATES THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASING ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE OVER THE UPCOMING COUPLE OF DAYS AND STALLING. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MAIN SWATH OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE LATEST HPC RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH DEPICTS A 2-4 INCH SWATH OF RAINFALL FORECAST TO OCCUR FROM JAX TO THE FL BIG BEND REGION...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TO 1-2 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL FL THEN DOWN TO A QUARTER TO HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS SRN FL. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN FL WILL BE DIURNALLY FORCED BY LAND/SEA BREEZES INTERACTIONS MAINLY INITIATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. THE LATEST BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY KEEP THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75" TO 2.00" RANGE WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AND NO NOTABLE MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT ANY STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN A GRADUAL BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND DISSIPATES NORTH OF THE AREA. FOR TODAY...SCATTERED STORMS THAT DEVELOPED AND SPREAD NORTH INTO THE GULF COAST WATERS EARLIER THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE GULF COAST AREAS AND NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD ASHORE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS IF THEY MANAGE TO HOLD TOGETHER. THE EARLY MORNING RAPID REFRESH MODEL DID NOT PICK UP ON THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE STRAITS AND KEYS. THE LATEST NCEP AND LOCALLY RUN WRF ARW/NMM AND NAM12 MODEL REFLECTIVITIES DID NOT PICK UP ON THIS ACTIVITY EITHER AND ARE GENERALLY DEPICTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INLAND AND ACROSS THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (PALM BEACH/LAKE REGION) THROUGH THE MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIODS WITH THE SW FLOW CONTINUING. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY INDICATE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH GIVING WAY TO ESE FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. FOR TUESDAY...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR POPS OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH THE SW FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE. ON WEDNESDAY...WILL SHIFT THE RAINFALL CHANCES BACK TOWARD THE GULF COAST AREAS AS THE FLOW SHIFTS AROUND TOWARD THE EAST. LONG TERM...[WEDNESDAY-WEEKEND] QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY BECOMES INTRODUCED AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND DUE TO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF VARIANCE WITHIN THE LATEST MODEL PACKAGE. THIS AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW AS A RESULT THROUGH THIS TIME. THE MAIN INTEREST THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY AN AREA OF INTEREST WELL EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THAT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE UPCOMING 24-48 HRS. WHILE SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS TAKE THIS AREA OF INTEREST DUE WEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE A NORTH AND NORTHWEST TURN ACROSS CUBA OVER THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE MAINLY MORE OF A SEASONAL RAINFALL FORECAST WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSTMS EACH DAY AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS AS CONFIDENCE SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE. MARINE... LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SEAS REMAINING LOW WILL BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. SLIGHTLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS THE BAYS AND INLETS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIODS EACH DAY DUE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...PERIODS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD GENERATE LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS FOR THE SMALL BOATS. A RETURN OF LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND HAS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. FIRE WEATHER... NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. THE SSW FLOW IS FORECAST TO BACK TOWARD THE EAST THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 78 91 76 90 / 30 40 30 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 80 92 78 90 / 20 40 20 40 MIAMI 79 92 78 91 / 20 30 20 40 NAPLES 78 91 77 91 / 20 30 20 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #535615 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:44 AM 20.Aug.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 939 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012 .UPDATE... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE TROUGH AND HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY ALLOWING FOR A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW OVER THE CWA. THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES WILL ALSO DEVELOP TODAY OVER THE CWA...WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE REMAINING OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZES. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE SEA AND LAKE BREEZES COLLIDE. SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST SCATTERED POPS TODAY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY TAPERING DOWN TO ISOLATED POPS OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG STORMS WILL BE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED. && .UPDATED...54/BNB .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012/ AVIATION... HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER S FLA AND THE FLA STRAITS RESPECTIVELY GIVING S FLA A LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL S-SW WIND FLOW. NO WEATHER E COAST TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z THEN VCTS AT KPBI, KFXE AND KFLL AS SW STEERING WINDS BRING INLAND SCATTERED TSRA NE TOWARD THE E COAST. WILL LEAVE WEATHER OUT OF MIAMI DADE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME BUT MAY ADD VCTS LATER AS CONDITIONS DEVELOP. AT KAPF...A FEW STRAY MORNING SHRA POSSIBLE BUT NOT IN TAF AT THIS TIME. TSRA WILL DEVELOP INLAND WELL NE-E OF THE TERMINAL LATER TODAY AND VCTS NOT IN TAF AS WELL. SURFACE WINDS E COAST CURRENTLY CALM TO SSW-SW < 5 KTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THROUGH 15Z THEN AN E COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT THE LIGHT SSW WIND FLOW THOUGH MAY PERSIST AT KTMB THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT KAPF CURRENT SURFACE WIND CALM TO SSE < 5 KNOTS BECOMING SW-WSW AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM MOVING ACROSS ANY OF THE TERMINALS. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012/ SHORT TERM...[ TODAY-WEDNESDAY ] THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST OVER THE KEYS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS CHARACTERIZED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WITH THE MAIN FEATURES BEING A POSITIVELY- TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE ROCKIES OUT WEST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A FEW PIECES OF ENERGY TRANSLATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH HAS MAINTAINED A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS SHOWER/TSTMS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. THE LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND GENERALLY INDICATES THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASING ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE OVER THE UPCOMING COUPLE OF DAYS AND STALLING. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MAIN SWATH OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE LATEST HPC RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH DEPICTS A 2-4 INCH SWATH OF RAINFALL FORECAST TO OCCUR FROM JAX TO THE FL BIG BEND REGION...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TO 1-2 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL FL THEN DOWN TO A QUARTER TO HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS SRN FL. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN FL WILL BE DIURNALLY FORCED BY LAND/SEA BREEZES INTERACTIONS MAINLY INITIATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. THE LATEST BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY KEEP THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75" TO 2.00" RANGE WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AND NO NOTABLE MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT ANY STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN A GRADUAL BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND DISSIPATES NORTH OF THE AREA. FOR TODAY...SCATTERED STORMS THAT DEVELOPED AND SPREAD NORTH INTO THE GULF COAST WATERS EARLIER THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE GULF COAST AREAS AND NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD ASHORE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS IF THEY MANAGE TO HOLD TOGETHER. THE EARLY MORNING RAPID REFRESH MODEL DID NOT PICK UP ON THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE STRAITS AND KEYS. THE LATEST NCEP AND LOCALLY RUN WRF ARW/NMM AND NAM12 MODEL REFLECTIVITIES DID NOT PICK UP ON THIS ACTIVITY EITHER AND ARE GENERALLY DEPICTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INLAND AND ACROSS THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (PALM BEACH/LAKE REGION) THROUGH THE MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIODS WITH THE SW FLOW CONTINUING. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY INDICATE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH GIVING WAY TO ESE FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. FOR TUESDAY...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR POPS OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH THE SW FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE. ON WEDNESDAY...WILL SHIFT THE RAINFALL CHANCES BACK TOWARD THE GULF COAST AREAS AS THE FLOW SHIFTS AROUND TOWARD THE EAST. LONG TERM...[WEDNESDAY-WEEKEND] QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY BECOMES INTRODUCED AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND DUE TO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF VARIANCE WITHIN THE LATEST MODEL PACKAGE. THIS AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW AS A RESULT THROUGH THIS TIME. THE MAIN INTEREST THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY AN AREA OF INTEREST WELL EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THAT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE UPCOMING 24-48 HRS. WHILE SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS TAKE THIS AREA OF INTEREST DUE WEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE A NORTH AND NORTHWEST TURN ACROSS CUBA OVER THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE MAINLY MORE OF A SEASONAL RAINFALL FORECAST WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSTMS EACH DAY AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS AS CONFIDENCE SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE. MARINE... LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SEAS REMAINING LOW WILL BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. SLIGHTLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS THE BAYS AND INLETS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIODS EACH DAY DUE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...PERIODS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD GENERATE LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS FOR THE SMALL BOATS. A RETURN OF LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND HAS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. FIRE WEATHER... NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. THE SSW FLOW IS FORECAST TO BACK TOWARD THE EAST THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 78 91 76 90 / 30 40 30 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 80 92 78 90 / 20 40 20 40 MIAMI 79 92 78 91 / 20 30 20 40 NAPLES 78 91 77 91 / 20 30 20 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #535604 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:50 AM 20.Aug.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 744 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012 .AVIATION... HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER S FLA AND THE FLA STRAITS RESPECTIVELY GIVING S FLA A LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL S-SW WIND FLOW. NO WEATHER E COAST TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z THEN VCTS AT KPBI, KFXE AND KFLL AS SW STEERING WINDS BRING INLAND SCATTERED TSRA NE TOWARD THE E COAST. WILL LEAVE WEATHER OUT OF MIAMI DADE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME BUT MAY ADD VCTS LATER AS CONDITIONS DEVELOP. AT KAPF...A FEW STRAY MORNING SHRA POSSIBLE BUT NOT IN TAF AT THIS TIME. TSRA WILL DEVELOP INLAND WELL NE-E OF THE TERMINAL LATER TODAY AND VCTS NOT IN TAF AS WELL. SURFACE WINDS E COAST CURRENTLY CALM TO SSW-SW < 5 KTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THROUGH 15Z THEN AN E COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT THE LIGHT SSW WIND FLOW THOUGH MAY PERSIST AT KTMB THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT KAPF CURRENT SURFACE WIND CALM TO SSE < 5 KNOTS BECOMING SW-WSW AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM MOVING ACROSS ANY OF THE TERMINALS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012/ SHORT TERM...[ TODAY-WEDNESDAY ] THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST OVER THE KEYS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS CHARACTERIZED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WITH THE MAIN FEATURES BEING A POSITIVELY- TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE ROCKIES OUT WEST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A FEW PIECES OF ENERGY TRANSLATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH HAS MAINTAINED A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS SHOWER/TSTMS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. THE LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND GENERALLY INDICATES THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASING ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE OVER THE UPCOMING COUPLE OF DAYS AND STALLING. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MAIN SWATH OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE LATEST HPC RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH DEPICTS A 2-4 INCH SWATH OF RAINFALL FORECAST TO OCCUR FROM JAX TO THE FL BIG BEND REGION...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TO 1-2 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL FL THEN DOWN TO A QUARTER TO HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS SRN FL. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN FL WILL BE DIURNALLY FORCED BY LAND/SEA BREEZES INTERACTIONS MAINLY INITIATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. THE LATEST BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY KEEP THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75" TO 2.00" RANGE WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AND NO NOTABLE MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT ANY STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN A GRADUAL BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND DISSIPATES NORTH OF THE AREA. FOR TODAY...SCATTERED STORMS THAT DEVELOPED AND SPREAD NORTH INTO THE GULF COAST WATERS EARLIER THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE GULF COAST AREAS AND NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD ASHORE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS IF THEY MANAGE TO HOLD TOGETHER. THE EARLY MORNING RAPID REFRESH MODEL DID NOT PICK UP ON THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE STRAITS AND KEYS. THE LATEST NCEP AND LOCALLY RUN WRF ARW/NMM AND NAM12 MODEL REFLECTIVITIES DID NOT PICK UP ON THIS ACTIVITY EITHER AND ARE GENERALLY DEPICTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INLAND AND ACROSS THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (PALM BEACH/LAKE REGION) THROUGH THE MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIODS WITH THE SW FLOW CONTINUING. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY INDICATE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH GIVING WAY TO ESE FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. FOR TUESDAY...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR POPS OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH THE SW FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE. ON WEDNESDAY...WILL SHIFT THE RAINFALL CHANCES BACK TOWARD THE GULF COAST AREAS AS THE FLOW SHIFTS AROUND TOWARD THE EAST. LONG TERM...[WEDNESDAY-WEEKEND] QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY BECOMES INTRODUCED AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND DUE TO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF VARIANCE WITHIN THE LATEST MODEL PACKAGE. THIS AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW AS A RESULT THROUGH THIS TIME. THE MAIN INTEREST THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY AN AREA OF INTEREST WELL EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THAT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE UPCOMING 24-48 HRS. WHILE SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS TAKE THIS AREA OF INTEREST DUE WEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE A NORTH AND NORTHWEST TURN ACROSS CUBA OVER THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE MAINLY MORE OF A SEASONAL RAINFALL FORECAST WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSTMS EACH DAY AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS AS CONFIDENCE SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE. MARINE... LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SEAS REMAINING LOW WILL BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. SLIGHTLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS THE BAYS AND INLETS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIODS EACH DAY DUE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...PERIODS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD GENERATE LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS FOR THE SMALL BOATS. A RETURN OF LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND HAS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. FIRE WEATHER... NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. THE SSW FLOW IS FORECAST TO BACK TOWARD THE EAST THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 91 78 91 76 / 50 40 40 30 FORT LAUDERDALE 92 80 92 78 / 40 30 40 20 MIAMI 92 79 92 78 / 30 30 30 20 NAPLES 92 78 91 77 / 30 40 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #535551 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:09 AM 20.Aug.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 303 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012 .SHORT TERM...[ TODAY-WEDNESDAY ] THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST OVER THE KEYS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS CHARACTERIZED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WITH THE MAIN FEATURES BEING A POSITIVELY- TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE ROCKIES OUT WEST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A FEW PIECES OF ENERGY TRANSLATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH HAS MAINTAINED A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS SHOWER/TSTMS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. THE LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND GENERALLY INDICATES THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASING ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE OVER THE UPCOMING COUPLE OF DAYS AND STALLING. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MAIN SWATH OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE LATEST HPC RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH DEPICTS A 2-4 INCH SWATH OF RAINFALL FORECAST TO OCCUR FROM JAX TO THE FL BIG BEND REGION...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TO 1-2 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL FL THEN DOWN TO A QUARTER TO HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS SRN FL. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN FL WILL BE DIURNALLY FORCED BY LAND/SEA BREEZES INTERACTIONS MAINLY INITIATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. THE LATEST BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY KEEP THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75" TO 2.00" RANGE WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AND NO NOTABLE MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT ANY STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN A GRADUAL BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND DISSIPATES NORTH OF THE AREA. FOR TODAY...SCATTERED STORMS THAT DEVELOPED AND SPREAD NORTH INTO THE GULF COAST WATERS EARLIER THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE GULF COAST AREAS AND NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD ASHORE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS IF THEY MANAGE TO HOLD TOGETHER. THE EARLY MORNING RAPID REFRESH MODEL DID NOT PICK UP ON THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE STRAITS AND KEYS. THE LATEST NCEP AND LOCALLY RUN WRF ARW/NMM AND NAM12 MODEL REFLECTIVITIES DID NOT PICK UP ON THIS ACTIVITY EITHER AND ARE GENERALLY DEPICTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INLAND AND ACROSS THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (PALM BEACH/LAKE REGION) THROUGH THE MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIODS WITH THE SW FLOW CONTINUING. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY INDICATE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH GIVING WAY TO ESE FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. FOR TUESDAY...WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR POPS OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH THE SW FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE. ON WEDNESDAY...WILL SHIFT THE RAINFALL CHANCES BACK TOWARD THE GULF COAST AREAS AS THE FLOW SHIFTS AROUND TOWARD THE EAST. .LONG TERM...[WEDNESDAY-WEEKEND] QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY BECOMES INTRODUCED AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND DUE TO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF VARIANCE WITHIN THE LATEST MODEL PACKAGE. THIS AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW AS A RESULT THROUGH THIS TIME. THE MAIN INTEREST THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY AN AREA OF INTEREST WELL EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THAT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE UPCOMING 24-48 HRS. WHILE SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS TAKE THIS AREA OF INTEREST DUE WEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE A NORTH AND NORTHWEST TURN ACROSS CUBA OVER THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE MAINLY MORE OF A SEASONAL RAINFALL FORECAST WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSTMS EACH DAY AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS AS CONFIDENCE SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE. && .MARINE... LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SEAS REMAINING LOW WILL BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. SLIGHTLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS THE BAYS AND INLETS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIODS EACH DAY DUE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...PERIODS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD GENERATE LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS FOR THE SMALL BOATS. A RETURN OF LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND HAS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. THE SSW FLOW IS FORECAST TO BACK TOWARD THE EAST THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 91 78 91 76 / 50 40 40 30 FORT LAUDERDALE 92 80 92 78 / 40 30 40 20 MIAMI 92 79 92 78 / 30 30 30 20 NAPLES 92 78 91 77 / 30 40 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #535538 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:35 AM 20.Aug.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 126 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012 .AVIATION...HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER S FLA AND THE FLA STRAITS RESPECTIVELY GIVING S FLA A LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL S-SW WIND FLOW. NO WEATHER E COAST TERMINALS THROUGH 20Z THEN VCTS MAINLY AT KPBI AS SW STEERING WINDS BRING INLAND SCATTERED TSRA NE TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH COUNTY. WILL LEAVE WEATHER OUT OF REMAINING E COAST TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. AT KAPF...VCSH TIL 14Z AS SHRA DEVELOPING IN THE SE GULF OF MEX WILL MOVE NE TOWARD THE SW FLA COAST. SURFACE WINDS E COAST CURRENTLY CALM TO SSW-SW < 5 KTS WHICH CAN PERSIST THROUGH 15Z THEN AN E COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT THE LIGHT SSW WIND FLOW THOUGH MAY PERSIST AT KTMB THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT KAPF CURRENT SURFACE WIND CALM TO SE < 5 KNOTS BECOMING SW-WSW AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 91 78 90 77 / 50 30 40 30 FORT LAUDERDALE 91 79 90 78 / 40 20 40 20 MIAMI 91 78 90 78 / 30 20 40 20 NAPLES 90 77 89 76 / 30 20 40 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
