Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995
Tropical Storm #Barry Has Formed in the SW Bay of Campeche. Flhurricane.com
Tropical Storm #Barry Has Formed in the SW Bay of Campeche. Flhurricane.com
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tampa Bay - Ruskin, FL (West Central Florida) Selection: |
| #535732 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:56 PM 20.Aug.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 943 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012 .UPDATE...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...EARLIER ACTIVITY OVER THE NATURE COAST HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD AND NOW AFFECTING THE TAMPA BAY AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT OVERNIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RAINS REDEVELOPING OVER THE NATURE COAST BEFORE SUNRISE. IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS TONIGHT...THEN SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE BACK IN FROM THE GULF. I MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS NORTH OVERNIGHT WHERE REDEVELOPMENT MOST LIKELY BASED ON AVERAGE OF GFS AND ECMWF. FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR HERNANDO...CITRUS...LEVY AND SUMTER COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY. && .AVIATION... SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO EFFECT TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z CAUSING SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 40 KNOTS. SHOULD THEN SEE CONVECTION WIND DOWN BEFORE REDEVELOPING AFTER 12Z TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS EFFECTING THE SITES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. && .MARINE...WINDS ARE MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST BUT CURRENTLY VARIABLE IN NORTHERN WATERS IN WAKE OF EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS HAVE PRODUCED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 OR 40 KNOTS...BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. JUST MINOR TWEAKS WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO- LEVY-SUMTER. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #535658 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:08 PM 20.Aug.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 202 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR HERNANDO...CITRUS...LEVY AND SUMTER COUNTIES... .SYNOPSIS... EARLY THIS AFTERNOON - ALOFT...A LOW EAST OF JAMES BAY TROUGHED SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. TO THE NORTHERN GULF. A RIDGE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC REACHED OVER CUBA TO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDED ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SE U.S. TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN LATITUDE 25 AND 30 NORTH RIDGED THROUGH THE FL STRAITS TO NEAR THE YUCATAN. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)... THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH OVER THE GULF AND THEN EAST IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH THROUGH TUE. BY WED THE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SOME. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTH AS IT DISSIPATES BUT LEAVES RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MODEL PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.9 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS SOUTHERN FL TONIGHT SLOWLY TREKS NORTH AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT...WITH ITS AXIS REACHING CENTRAL OR NORTH-CENTRAL BY WED. AS NOTED ABOVE THESE FEATURES KEEP VERY DEEP MOISTURE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL FL WITH DEEP MOISTURE FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...LIKELY...IN NORTH AND TENDING DOWN GOING SOUTH ON TUE. FOR WED AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AND THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE BOTH MOVE NORTH POPS WILL LOWER BUT STILL STAY IN THE MID TO HIGH END SCATTERED RANGE. THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTH...THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING STORMS...AND ALREADY SATURATED GROUND COULD LEAD TO A FLOODING RISK FOR HERNANDO COUNTY NORTHWARD...WITH A FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH TUE EVENING. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)... BASE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND ATTENDANT STATIONARY FRONT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND A DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A GOOD DEAL OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH POPS IN THE 40 PERCENT RANGE. ON FRIDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN SOME AS SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN THE SCATTERED RANGE. DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ALL EYES WILL BECOME FOCUSED ON THE TROPICS. THE LATEST AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS SHOWS A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SATURDAY...THEN LIFTING NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THIS SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TRACKING IT WEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND KEEP SCATTERED RANGE POPS (30 TO 40 PERCENT) IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR NOW AND WAIT TO SEE IF BETTER CONTINUITY DEVELOPS AMONG THE MODELS OVER THE COMING DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER 90S INLAND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LCL VFR CIGS 035-040 MAINLY VCNTY LAL. OTHERWISE SCT CLDS 030-040 AND SCT LCL BKN 250. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LCL MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM TPA-SRQ AND EAST TO LAL. && .MARINE... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FL WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO CENTRAL FL BY WED AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTHERN FL. THE RIDGE CONTINUES MOVING NORTH...REACHING NORTH FL FOR THE WEEKEND. WINDS 5-10 KT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES BY WITH SOUTH AND SW WINDS...WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...BECOME NE AND EAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME FOR THE WEEKEND BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE NO MORE THAN 15 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .FIRE WEATHER... AMPLE MOISTURE CONTINUES WITH NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 77 88 77 87 / 30 60 30 50 FMY 77 92 76 91 / 30 40 30 40 GIF 75 90 74 91 / 30 60 30 50 SRQ 77 88 76 88 / 30 50 30 50 BKV 73 87 72 89 / 40 60 30 50 SPG 79 87 79 85 / 30 60 30 50 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO- LEVY-SUMTER. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #535654 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:56 PM 20.Aug.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 150 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR HERNANDO COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... .SYNOPSIS... EARLY THIS AFTERNOON - ALOFT...A LOW EAST OF JAMES BAY TROUGHED SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. TO THE NORTHERN GULF. A RIDGE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC REACHED OVER CUBA TO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDED ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SE U.S. TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN LATITUDE 25 AND 30 NORTH RIDGED THROUGH THE FL STRAITS TO NEAR THE YUCATAN. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)... THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH OVER THE GULF AND THEN EAST IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH THROUGH TUE. BY WED THE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SOME. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTH AS IT DISSIPATES BUT LEAVES RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MODEL PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.9 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS SOUTHERN FL TONIGHT SLOWLY TREKS NORTH AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT...WITH ITS AXIS REACHING CENTRAL OR NORTH-CENTRAL BY WED. AS NOTED ABOVE THESE FEATURES KEEP VERY DEEP MOISTURE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL FL WITH DEEP MOISTURE FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...LIKELY...IN NORTH AND TENDING DOWN GOING SOUTH ON TUE. FOR WED AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AND THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE BOTH MOVE NORTH POPS WILL LOWER BUT STILL STAY IN THE MID TO HIGH END SCATTERED RANGE. THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTH...THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING STORMS...AND ALREADY SATURATED GROUND COULD LEAD TO A FLOODING RISK FOR HERNANDO COUNTY NORTHWARD...WITH A FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH TUE EVENING. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)... BASE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND ATTENDANT STATIONARY FRONT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND A DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A GOOD DEAL OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH POPS IN THE 40 PERCENT RANGE. ON FRIDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN SOME AS SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN THE SCATTERED RANGE. DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ALL EYES WILL BECOME FOCUSED ON THE TROPICS. THE LATEST AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS SHOWS A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SATURDAY...THEN LIFTING NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THIS SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TRACKING IT WEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND KEEP SCATTERED RANGE POPS (30 TO 40 PERCENT) IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR NOW AND WAIT TO SEE IF BETTER CONTINUITY DEVELOPS AMONG THE MODELS OVER THE COMING DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER 90S INLAND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LCL VFR CIGS 035-040 MAINLY VCNTY LAL. OTHERWISE SCT CLDS 030-040 AND SCT LCL BKN 250. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LCL MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM TPA-SRQ AND EAST TO LAL. && .MARINE... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FL WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO CENTRAL FL BY WED AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTHERN FL. THE RIDGE CONTINUES MOVING NORTH...REACHING NORTH FL FOR THE WEEKEND. WINDS 5-10 KT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES BY WITH SOUTH AND SW WINDS...WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...BECOME NE AND EAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME FOR THE WEEKEND BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE NO MORE THAN 15 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .FIRE WEATHER... AMPLE MOISTURE CONTINUES WITH NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 77 88 77 87 / 30 60 30 50 FMY 77 92 76 91 / 30 40 30 40 GIF 75 90 74 91 / 30 60 30 50 SRQ 77 88 76 88 / 30 50 30 50 BKV 73 87 72 89 / 40 60 30 50 SPG 79 87 79 85 / 30 60 30 50 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO- LEVY-SUMTER. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #535608 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:17 AM 20.Aug.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 907 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012 .DISCUSSION... THE AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH...FROM LA TO VA/NC COASTAL WATERS...AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE SOUTH...WITH AN AXIS THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND WEST OVER CUBA. THIS RESULTS IN A DEEP MOIST SW FLOW OVER THE AREA. PWAT VALUES AT 12Z WERE 1.91 HERE AT TBW AND 2.10 AT TAE/TLH. WHILE THE CWA IS CURRENTLY RAIN FREE AND MOSTLY SUNNY THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION AND CLOUDS WEST THROUGH NORTH OF US. WITH THIS EXPECTED TO SAG IN TOWARD THE AREA...ALONG WITH CONVECTION FORMING OUT AHEAD OF IT IN THE MOIST AIR MASS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SCATTERED IN THE SOUTH TO NUMEROUS IN THE NORTH. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS GENERA LY ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXCEPT... THIS PATTERS CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST TUE WITH POSSIBLE TRAINING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES...FROM HERNANDO NORTH. WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH THERE AND WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO INCLUDE THE HEADLINE. && .AVIATION... VFR CIGS TPA-SRQ WITH SCT CLDS SRQ-RSW THIS MORNING. SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LCL MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS FROM TPA-SRQ. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT LCL BKN 035-040 DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING. && .MARINE... LATEST BUOY REPORTS AND BEACH WEB CAMS ARE SHOWING SLIGHT HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS THAN EXPECTED. WILL ISSUE BOTH OF THOSE FORECASTS BEFORE 10 AM TO REFLECT THIS. NO OTHER CHANGES. && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO- LEVY-SUMTER. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #535571 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:26 AM 20.Aug.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 354 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)... AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS EXTENDED FARTHER SOUTH BY A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL LIFT NORTH TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MIDWEEK...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. WITH THIS SETUP...EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING RISK FOR HERNANDO COUNTY AND NORTH...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FLOOD POTENTIAL. AREAS SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY MAKE FOR A TOUGHER FORECAST...WITH GFS SOLUTION CONSIDERABLY WETTER THAN NAM...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY. STUCK WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS WORDING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EACH AFTERNOON...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LARGE PARTS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO STAY DRY. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)... BASE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND ATTENDANT STATIONARY FRONT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND A DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A GOOD DEAL OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH POPS IN THE 40 PERCENT RANGE. ON FRIDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN SOME AS SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN THE SCATTERED RANGE. DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ALL EYES WILL BECOME FOCUSED ON THE TROPICS. THE LATEST AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS SHOWS A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SATURDAY...THEN LIFTING NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THIS SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TRACKING IT WEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND KEEP SCATTERED RANGE POPS (30 TO 40 PERCENT) IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR NOW AND WAIT TO SEE IF BETTER CONTINUITY DEVELOPS AMONG THE MODELS OVER THE COMING DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER 90S INLAND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION... BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPACT KFMY...KRSW...AND KPGD THROUGH 10Z THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED WITH VCTS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES AFTER 14Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE WILL INCREASE INTO THE 12 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AFTER 15Z...WITH A GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH INTO THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE AFTER 01Z TONIGHT. && .MARINE... WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 77 88 77 / 50 30 50 30 FMY 93 77 92 76 / 30 30 30 30 GIF 92 75 90 74 / 50 30 50 30 SRQ 89 77 88 76 / 40 30 40 30 BKV 91 73 87 72 / 60 30 50 30 SPG 89 79 87 79 / 50 30 50 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
