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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Jacksonville, FL (North Florida) Selection: |
| #538470 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:17 PM 29.Aug.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 908 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2012 .UPDATE... ANOTHER NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH STORMS NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH SLOWER MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE NORTH AT 15-20 MPH. SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WIND GUSTS HAD TROUBLE MIXING TO THE SURFACE. ACTIVITY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERING ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE 70S AND WILL REMAIN THERE AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S TOWARD MORNING. THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND ISAAC LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON THE FORECAST AREA AS WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND STEERING FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST BUT PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS STILL AROUND 2 INCHES AND STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH OR LESS AND THIS SLOWER STORM MOTION WILL SUPPORT THE MAIN THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY DOWN-BURST WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AS MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 DEGREES WILL PUSH CAPE VALUES CLOSE TO 3000 J/KG. THE SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHEST POPS INTO INLAND AREAS WITH EVENING CONVERGENCE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. && .AVIATION... SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ACROSS AREA TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD...THEREFORE FAVORING VCTS FOR MOST TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. && .MARINE... SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FT TONIGHT WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS REMAINING IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. RIP CURRENTS: SURF CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE WITH BREAKERS DOWN INTO THE 2-3 FT RANGE AND EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND INTO A LOW RISK ON THURSDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 72 89 73 90 / 70 70 40 30 SSI 76 85 76 86 / 70 60 30 20 JAX 73 89 75 89 / 60 60 30 30 SGJ 73 88 76 87 / 60 50 30 20 GNV 72 90 73 90 / 20 70 50 30 OCF 73 91 74 91 / 20 60 50 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #538344 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:17 PM 29.Aug.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 212 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2012 .SHORT TERM... WHILE ISAAC IS CHURNING OVER SE LOUISIANA...A RAINBAND FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER IS PUSHING NWD FROM APALACHEE BAY INTO SW GA. SKIES OVER THE LOCAL AREA HAVE BEEN COVERED BY CIRRUS EMANATING FROM ISAAC. THESE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES IN CHECK... AND NOW THAT TEMPS ARE APPROACHING UPPER 80S THE CONVECTION IS QUICKLY BEGINNING TO ERUPT. LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING HAS NUDGED ONSHORE FROM HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE BAHAMAS. THUS THE EAST COAST IS MORE STABLE ATTM. DESTABILIZATION HAS BEGUN OVER OUR WRN ZONES WITH SHOWERS/STORMS FIRING THERE FIRST. AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MERGE AND STORMS TAKE OFF...EXPECT OCNL STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND WITH THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE...TORRENTIAL RAINS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AROUND SUNSET AND LINGERING RAIN IS POSSIBLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS ISAAC TRACKS INLAND THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER N GA WILL SLIDE INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS A BACKDOOR FRONT ON FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS THU AND CHANCE ON FRI. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN IN SLOW MOVING STORMS. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... EXPECT A RETURN TO CONDITIONS MORE ON PAR WITH CLIMATOLOGY. THAT IS...SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS MOVES IN OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SWRN ATLANTIC. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WILL KEEP LOW POPS (20-30%) FOR THE WEEKEND...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCE POPS (30-40%) OVER THE INTERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION... CONVECTION WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF ISAAC. CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE 3-4 KFT RANGE WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. && .MARINE... SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. TOMORROW AS ISAAC MOVES WEST AND ALLOWS FOR A MORE MESOSCALE WIND PATTERN WILL SEE A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. RIP CURRENTS:A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 88 73 90 / 60 60 50 30 SSI 76 86 76 86 / 40 50 30 20 JAX 74 89 75 89 / 50 50 40 30 SGJ 75 88 76 87 / 40 40 30 20 GNV 73 91 73 90 / 40 60 60 30 OCF 73 91 74 91 / 50 60 60 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #538279 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:56 AM 29.Aug.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 945 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2012 .UPDATE... MID LAYER DEBRIS CLOUDS BLANKET MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ON EITHER SIDE OF I-95 IN NE FL ARE MOVING NWD. KJAX MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS GREATER INSTABILITY TODAY WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -6...CAPE OF 3156 J/KG...AND 500 MB TEMP HAS COOLED TO -6 CELSIUS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES FEEDING INTO THE REGION BUT THE DIFFERENCE TODAY IS A SHIFT IN THE MID LEVE FLOW TO SOUTHWESTERLY. INITIALLY THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH. THEN AS HEATING ALLOWS TALLER STORMS THE CONVECTION WILL TRACK NE TOWARD THE COAST. EXPECT SUFFICIENT INSOLATION BY NOON FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BECOMING NUMEROUS BY EARLY/MID AFTN AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MERGE WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WITH PWATS REMAINING OVER 2 INCHES...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. WHILE SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE WET MICROBURSTS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. && .AVIATION... CLOUD DECK AROUND 15 KFT COVERS THE TAF SITES. OCNL LIFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING INLAND AND HAVE ADDED TEMPO UNTIL 15Z FOR GNV. PREV DISCUSSION...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN...AND WILL USE TEMPO TS FOR ALL PORTS 18-23Z. MVFR/LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY...WITH LOCAL STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH EARLY IN THE EVENING...WITH MAINLY VFR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... BUOYS ARE REPORTING SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT NEARSHORE AND NEAR 15 KT OFFSHORE. COMBINED SEAS ARE MAINLY 3-4 FT. AN EARLY MORNING SURGE OVER BUOY 41012 IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LAT MORNING. NO SIG CHANGES REQD FOR THE UPDATE. RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 2-3 FT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 89 73 88 73 / 70 60 60 50 SSI 86 76 86 76 / 60 50 50 40 JAX 89 75 89 75 / 70 60 50 50 SGJ 87 76 88 76 / 60 40 50 40 GNV 88 73 91 73 / 70 50 60 60 OCF 88 74 91 74 / 70 50 60 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #538242 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:23 AM 29.Aug.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 617 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2012 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY AS WE FIND OURSELVES BETWEEN HURRICANE ISAAC OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP SLIGHTLY TO GO WITH 70-80% AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BUILD FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE DAY. INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL TEMPER HIGHS A BIT. MOST AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S...HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 90S WHERE PRECIP GETS A LATE START. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING...HOWEVER A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE DAY. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ANTICIPATED FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA WHERE THE HIGHEST AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. INDIVIDUAL STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN IN SLOW MOVING STORMS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENE FLOW WILL MIGRATE INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WILL CONTINUE TO DEPICT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SAG SOUTHWARD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SW...INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. WITH THE FORCING FROM THE SAGGING TROUGH...WILL INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE AREA WIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. && .AVIATION... VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN...AND WILL USE TEMPO TS FOR ALL PORTS 18-23Z. MVFR/LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY...WITH LOCAL STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH EARLY IN THE EVENING...WITH MAINLY VFR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. COMBINED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY...BECOMING 2 TO 3 FEET BY TONIGHT. LOW SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY THEN LOW RISK ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 89 73 88 73 / 70 60 60 50 SSI 86 76 86 76 / 60 50 50 40 JAX 89 75 89 75 / 70 60 50 50 SGJ 87 76 88 76 / 60 40 50 40 GNV 88 73 91 73 / 70 50 60 60 OCF 88 74 91 74 / 70 50 60 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
