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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Melbourne, FL (East Central Florida) Selection: |
| #538499 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 PM 29.Aug.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1040 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2012 .UPDATE...CONVECTION WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL A FEW DECENT CLUSTERS OF CELLS ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL LIKELY TAKE 2-3 MORE HOURS TO WIND DOWN...SO WILL KEEP EVENING TS GOING TIL ABOUT 06Z. && .MARINE...SEAS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 2-3FT RANGE AS FORECAST. EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && $$ |
| #538343 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:17 PM 29.Aug.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 206 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT-TONIGHT...ACTIVITY SLOW TO GET GOING THUS FAR BUT STILL EXPECTING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO EARLY EVENING. A FEW CELLS MAY BE PROFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS WITH A QUICK 1 OR 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WHICH COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR SATURATED GROUNDS. OTHER THREATS REMAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS. CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE TOWARDS THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. DEEP LAYER RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF ISSAC`S DEPARTURE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE ON A DECLINE AS A RESULT. DIURNAL PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN BY ABOUT 03Z WITH BEST EARLY EVENING SHRA/TS CHANCES AROUND 30 PERCENT NORTH/INLAND. CLOUD DEBRIS FROM PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO EITHER SIDE OF 75F. THU-FRI...AS TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAAC PUSHES SLOWLY NORTHWARD A DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GOMEX. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN ALOFT DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES HERE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN WE HAVE WITNESSED IN RECENT DAYS. LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE MOSTLY ABSENT. A DAILY SEA BREEZE REGIME WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON EACH DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST AND PUSH INLAND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECLINE BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL OR PERHAPS LOWER. GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE FOUND EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR DUE TO SEA BREEZE AND VARIOUS OTHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S MOST PLACES...EXCEPT UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL FORM SOONER AND MOVE INLAND. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 70S. SAT-TUE...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A DEEP NE FLOW REGIME WILL DVLP ACRS CENTRAL FL BY THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE BUILDS INTO THE GOMEX. THIS TYPICALLY IS ONE OF THE MOST STABLE FOR CENTRAL FL AS IT USUALLY PULLS DRY CONTINENTAL AIR DOWN THE ATLC COAST. IT APPEARS THIS CASE WILL BE NO DIFFERENT AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES PWAT VALUES DROPPING FROM 1.8"-1.9" ON SAT MORNING TO AOB 1.0" AREAWIDE BY SUN EVNG. MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW AT BEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND N FL WILL RESULT IN A WEAK PGRAD THRU THE H100-H70 LYR. POPS WILL BE AOB 30PCT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK...AS LOW AS 20PCT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. WEAK PGRAD WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM EACH DAY...KEEPING MAX TEMPS ALNG THE COAST IN THE U80S. LIMITED INLAND PENETRATION OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALLOW READINGS TO WARM INTO THE L90S OVER THE INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M70S. && .AVIATION...DEEP LAYER DRYING POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND INTO THU. FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AS SSE WINDS BACK MORE SE INTO TONIGHT AND ESE BY LATE IN THE DAY THRU THE ECFL INTERIOR. WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH GREATEST CHANCES NORTH OF A LINE FROM KMLB-KGIF WHERE MOISTURE VALUES ARE HIGHER. EXPECT THE USUAL IFR VSBY AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN +RA. TSRA CHANCES DECREASE ON THU...BUT EXPECT LATER SHIFTS TO INITIATE VCTS FOR SOME TAF SITES FOR THU AFTN. && .MARINE...TONIGHT-THU...S/SSE WINDS INTO THU MORNING WILL BACK ESE/E BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON. SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS...POSSIBLY 10-15 KTS THIS EVENING AWAY FROM THE COAST DUE TO NOCTURNAL WIND SURGE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THU WILL ALLOW SPEEDS TO FALL TO 5-10 KTS. SEAS 2 FT NEAR SHORE INCREASING TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BECOMING 2-3 FT AREAWIDE ON THU. FRI-SUN...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SLIGHTLY MODIFIED...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NE ON FRI AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS DOWN TO THE CAROLINA COAST. SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS WILL THEN FLUCTUATE BETWEEN NE AND SE THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS OFF THE SERN SEABOARD AND SLOWLY WEAKENS...BUT THE WEAK PGRAD WILL KEEP THEM AOB 12KTS. SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE. LOW TSTM COVERAGE AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND FOCUS DAILY ACTIVITY OVER THE WRN PENINSULA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 89 76 89 / 30 30 20 30 MCO 74 93 75 92 / 20 40 20 30 MLB 75 89 77 90 / 20 30 20 30 VRB 74 90 76 90 / 20 30 20 30 LEE 76 93 76 93 / 30 40 20 30 SFB 77 92 76 92 / 30 40 20 30 ORL 76 93 76 92 / 30 40 20 30 FPR 74 89 75 89 / 20 30 20 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #538278 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:56 AM 29.Aug.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 952 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT-TODAY...MODELS DO SHOW SOME DEEP LAYER DRYING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND 10Z MORNING KXMR SOUNDING HAS COME IN WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.84 INCHES. DEWPOINT VALUES AT THE SURFACE ARE QUITE JUICY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. THE MID-LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY WARM WITH -5.7C AT 500 MB. WILL KEEP CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHEST CHANCES CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY-OSCEOLA COUNTY NORTHWARD. STEERING FLOW FOR CELLS LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS THOUGH A FEW COULD BE PROFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS PUTTING DOWN 1-2 INCHES IN A SHORT TIME SO LOCALIZED FLOODING A MINOR CONCERN. OTHER THREATS REMAIN GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTING IN A FEW CELLS. TONIGHT...PREVIOUS...DIURNAL PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN BY ABOUT 03Z WITH BEST EARLY EVENING SHRA/TS CHANCES (30) NORTH/INLAND. MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO EITHER SIDE OF 75F. && .AVIATION...SOUTHERLY MORNING WINDS TO BACK TO SOUTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIEST SHRA/TS CHANCES AT SUA-FPR-VRB...16Z-19Z AND 18Z-22Z MLB-TIX-DAB...AND 21Z-01Z OVER THE INTERIOR SFB-MCO TO LEE-ISM SITES. EXPECT THE USUAL IFR VSBY AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN +RA. && .MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...S/SSE WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE FOR THIS PERIOD. SEAS 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE. FEW SHRA/TSRA MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #538192 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:11 AM 29.Aug.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 300 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT... SULTRY SE WIND FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS ECFL WITH KMLB SHOWING JUST A FEW SMALL PATCHES OF -RA/SPRINKLES REMAINING OVER THE REGION. OUTFLOW FROM HURCN "ISAAC" PRODUCING LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. GPS/SSMI PWATS REMAIN QUITE JUICY...MOSTLY IN THE 2.2" TO 2.4" RANGE...WITH THE SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES SOUTH/EAST. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE M70S...OWING TO COPIOUS RAINFALL TODAY AND WILL LIKELY RISE A DEGREE OR TWO NEAR THE COAST BEFORE SUNRISE GIVEN MARINE TRAJECTORY. TODAY... OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY START TO BUILD IN WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC IN THE WAKE OF ISAAC`S SLOW DEPARTURE FROM THE GOMEX. DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IS PROGGED TO GET PULLED WESTWARD BY THE W-NW MOVING ISAAC...WITH PWATS FCST TO DROP INTO THE 1.8" TO 2.0" RANGE. NOT COMPLETELY BUYING INTO THE MAV MOS WHICH HAS DROPPED NUMBERS QUITE A BIT SINCE H24 AGO...AND AS SUCH AM KEEPING POPS ABOUT 10 PCT HIGHER ACROSS THE BOARD...50 NORTH TO 30 SE COAST. DECREASING COVERAGE TREND IN THAT AREA NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL SPELL SOME WELCOME RELIEF FROM ISAAC`S EXCESSIVE FLOODING RAINS. TONIGHT... DIURNAL PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN BY ABOUT 03Z WITH BEST EARLY EVENING SHRA/TS CHANCES (30) NORTH/INLAND. MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO EITHER SIDE OF 75F. THU-FRI... A FRONTAL TROF PUSHING OFF THE ERN SEABOARD WILL STEADILY ERODE THE NRN FLANK OF THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS...FORCING ITS WRN EXTENSION TO PINCH OFF BY LATE THU. THIS PORTION OF THE RIDGE WILL THEN MERGE WITH A DEEP ANTICYCLONE THAT WILL PUSH DOWN FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLC. THIS NEWLY INDEPENDENT ANTICYCLONE WILL THEN DO-SI-DO AROUND WHAT WILL BE THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE ISSAC... EVENTUALLY RETROGRADING INTO THE CENTRAL GOMEX. DEEP LYR FLOW ACRS CENTRAL FL WILL BACK FROM S/SE ON THU TO E/NE BY FRI NIGHT AS THE PENINSULA GAINS THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. MOISTURE ACRS THE REGION WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DEEP LYR VORTICITY FIELDS ACRS THE WRN ATLC/ERN GOMEX ARE QUITE WEAK AND HAVE LITTLE POTENTIAL TO SUPPORT STRONG OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE...BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE UPR LVL WIND FIELDS WILL BE CONVERGENT ON THU AND ONLY BRIEFLY DIVERGENT ON FRI. AS THE LACK OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL NOT SUPPORT SPONTANEOUS CONVECTION...MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL BE NECESSARY TO SPARK ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...DEEP SRLY WINDS ON THU WILL NOT PROMOTE A RAPID INLAND PROGRESSION OF EITHER THE EAST OR WEST COAST SEA BREEZES...WHILE THE DVLPG E/NE FLOW ON FRI WOULD TEND TO FOCUS DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WRN PENINSULA. THE 29/00Z GFS MOS POPS BLO 30PCT THU AND AOB 20PCT FRI LOOK A BIT LOW...THOUGH THE DRYING TREND LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL ADJUST UPWARD TO 30/20 RESPECTABLY. TEMPS NEAR AVG FOR LATE AUG...MAXES U80S/L90S...MINS IN THE L/M70S. SAT-TUE... A DEEP NE FLOW REGIME WILL DVLP ACRS CENTRAL FL BY THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE BUILDS INTO THE GOMEX. THIS TYPICALLY IS ONE OF THE MOST STABLE FOR CENTRAL FL AS IT USUALLY PULLS DRY CONTINENTAL AIR DOWN THE ATLC COAST. IT APPEARS THIS CASE WILL BE NO DIFFERENT AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES PWAT VALUES DROPPING FROM 1.8"-1.9" ON SAT MORNING TO AOB 1.0" AREAWIDE BY SUN EVNG. MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW AT BEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND N FL WILL RESULT IN A WEAK PGRAD THRU THE H100-H70 LYR. POPS WILL BE AOB 30PCT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK...AS LOW AS 20PCT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. WEAK PGRAD WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM EACH DAY...KEEPING MAX TEMPS ALNG THE COAST IN THE U80S. LIMITED INLAND PENETRATION OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALLOW READINGS TO WARM INTO THE L90S OVER THE INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M70S. && .AVIATION... LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO SSE AND A LITTLE MORE TO SE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS OWING TO LOCAL ECSB CIRCULATION. THIS SHOULD PLACE EARLIEST SHRA/TS CHANCES AT SUA-FPR- VRB (16Z-19Z)...18Z-22Z MLB-TIX-DAB...AND 21Z-01Z OVER THE INTERIOR (SFB-MCO TO LEE-ISM) SITES. EXPECT THE USUAL IFR VSBY AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN +RA. && .MARINE... CURRENT BUOY OBS INDICATE 2FT SEAS NEAR SHORE AND 4FT WELL OFFSHORE IN SLACKENING S-SE WIND FLOW OF 10-15KT. BOTH THE WNAWAVE AND SWAN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS WILL DROP FURTHER TO AOB 3FT BY TONIGHT AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO AOB 10KT. THU-SUN...LIGHT TO GENTLE SERLY BREEZE ON THU WILL BACK TO THE NE ON FRI AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS DOWN TO THE CAROLINA COAST. SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS WILL THEN FLUCTUATE BETWEEN NE AND SE THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS OFF THE SERN SEABOARD AND SLOWLY WEAKENS...BUT THE WEAK PGRAD WILL KEEP THEM AOB 12KTS. SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE. LOW TSTM COVERAGE AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND FOCUS DAILY ACTIVITY OVER THE WRN PENINSULA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 90 75 90 76 / 50 30 30 20 MCO 92 75 92 75 / 40 20 30 20 MLB 89 76 90 77 / 30 20 30 20 VRB 90 74 90 77 / 30 20 20 20 LEE 91 76 93 77 / 50 30 40 20 SFB 93 76 92 76 / 50 30 30 20 ORL 93 76 92 77 / 50 30 30 20 FPR 89 74 90 76 / 30 20 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
