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| #514614 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 PM 29.May.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 1100 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 BERYL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER... SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THAT PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41008 AND SHIP KCDK. AS EXPECTED...THE DEPRESSION IS ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 065 DEGREES AT 9 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS BERYL PICKING UP FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THAT TIME. THEREAFTER... THERE IS INCREASING SPREAD...WITH THE GFS SHOWING AN INTENSIFYING CYCLONE MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SUGGEST A WEAKER LOW MOVING MORE EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION AND IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO FOLLOWS THE ECMWF MODEL BY CALLING FOR THE CYCLONE TO BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. A POSSIBLE ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS FOR BERYL TO BECOME THE PRIMARY EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AFTER BERYL EXITS THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR BERYL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT BERYL WILL BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN 24 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 32.2N 81.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 33.1N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 31/0000Z 34.7N 75.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 36.5N 71.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 37.7N 66.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/0000Z 40.0N 53.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
| #514488 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 29.May.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 500 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THE DAY. THE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER WATER WITHIN RAINBANDS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE CENTER IS OVER LAND. BERYL IS FORECAST TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM BEYOND 24 HOURS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO IMPLY THAT BERYL WILL BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 48 HOURS...AND LATER BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST...OR 055 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE THE WESTERLIES AROUND THE BASE OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A GENERAL NORTHEAST MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE SHORT WAVE AMPLIFIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH IS THE SOUTHERNMOST SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED VERY NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN 24 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 31.8N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 30/0600Z 32.8N 80.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/1800Z 34.2N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 31/0600Z 36.0N 73.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 37.5N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/1800Z 40.0N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
| #514407 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 29.May.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 1100 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 SATELLITE IMAGES...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A PERSISTENT CIRCULATION AND A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND LOCATED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BAND. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY WHILE THE CENTER IS OVER LAND. THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR BERYL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT BERYL WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 72 HOURS OR EVEN EARLIER...AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 050 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS...STEERED BY THE WESTERLIES AROUND THE BASE OF AN EASTWARD- MOVING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A GENERAL NORTHEAST MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE SHORT WAVE AMPLIFIES. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS AGREE ON THIS SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED VERY NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN 36 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 31.5N 82.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 32.2N 81.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/1200Z 33.3N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/0000Z 34.7N 76.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 31/1200Z 36.2N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 40.0N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
| #514354 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 29.May.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 500 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 BERYL IS STILL GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION IN A FEW BANDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND SO IT STILL QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE RADAR PRESENTATION NEAR THE CENTER HAS DEGRADED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS... AS WELL AS RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE WESTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION HAS ENDED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/2. THE STRONGEST WINDS...ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KT...ARE OVER WATER AND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE BERYL NORTHEASTWARD VERY SHORTLY...LIKELY TAKING THE CENTER BACK OVER WATER WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR AN ACCELERATING SYSTEM...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AT LEAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY BLENDS THE ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE...WITH MORE WEIGHT PLACED ON THE SLOWER ECMWF. BERYL WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGH AS IT ACCELERATES AND MOVES OFFSHORE AND OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS...IN WHAT SHOULD STILL BE A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED VERY NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN 36 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY. A FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SHORT-WAVE IS SHOWN OVERTAKING BERYL IN ABOUT 66 HOURS IN THE GFS...AND IN ABOUT 84 HOURS IN THE ECMWF. BASED ON THIS GUIDANCE AND THE EXPECTED COOLER WATERS BELOW THE CYCLONE BY THAT TIME...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS CALLED FOR ON DAY THREE...FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 30.9N 83.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 31.5N 82.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/0600Z 32.4N 80.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/1800Z 33.7N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 31/0600Z 35.5N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 38.0N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
