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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 211 (Idalia) , Major: 211 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 211 (Idalia) Major: 211 (Idalia)
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#47841 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:08 PM 22.Sep.2005)
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005

FLIGHT LEVEL WIND DATA AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
CYCLE MIGHT BE NEARING COMPLETION. THERE IS NOW ONLY A SINGLE
FLIGHT LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AT A RADIUS OF ABOUT 20 N MI...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE OUTER EYEWALL THAT THE AIRCRAFT RADAR INDICATE IS SLOWLY
CONTRACTING... WHILE THE INNER EYEWALL CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE.
RECENT GOES INFRARED IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT A COMPLETE RING OF
VERY COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS...COLDER THAN -70C... NOW SURROUNDS THE
EYE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS ONLY RISEN SLIGHTLY TO 917 MB AS
MEASURED BY THE MOST RECENT DROPSONDE. RECENT FLIGHT LEVEL AND
DROPSONDE WIND DATA DO NOT SUPPORT AN INTENSITY GREATER THAN ABOUT
110 KT...BUT GIVEN THE VERY LOW PRESSURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD TO 120 KT. RITA IS ABOUT TO PASS
OVER ANOTHER EDDY OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. COMBINING THIS WITH
THE POSSIBLE CONTRACTION OF THE OUTER EYEWALL DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE LATER ON FRIDAY BEFORE LANDFALL DUE
TO LESSER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME INCREASE IN THE WIND SHEAR. THE BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS...AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE.

ALTHOUGH RITA HAS WOBBLED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...THE OVERALL MOTION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS
REMAINED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...ABOUT 300/9. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...SINCE THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS
STRADDLE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. RITA IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD AS THE HIGH
TO ITS NORTH SLIDES EASTWARD. RITA IS FORECAST TO THEN ESSENTIALLY
STALL IN ABOUT THREE DAYS IN THE AREA OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS WHERE
STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY WEAK. THIS SCENARIO
POSES A GREAT RISK OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INLAND AND FOR MANY
DAYS AFTER LANDFALL.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 26.2N 90.3W 120 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 27.0N 91.5W 125 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 28.4N 93.0W 120 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 29.8N 94.2W 115 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 25/0000Z 31.1N 94.7W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 26/0000Z 33.0N 95.0W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/0000Z 33.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 28/0000Z 33.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND


#47834 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 PM 22.Sep.2005)
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005

DEEP CONVECTION WITH RATHER COLD CLOUD TOPS REMAIN NEAR THE ALLEGED
CENTER OF PHILIPPE. A 2207 UTC SSMI OVERPASS PROVIDED SOME IDEA AS
TO THE CENTER LOCATION. EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT A CLOSED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS...ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL IT
BECOMES CERTAIN THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NO LONGER EXISTS. BASED
ON A 2.5 DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

PHILIPPE REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
A BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. IN FACT...BOTH SAB AND TAFB BEGAN
SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0000 UTC ON THE BROADER LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF PHILIPPE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS IN A HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY MID-LEVEL AIR SWEEPING OVER THE CYCLONE
FROM THE SOUTH. IF PHILIPPE SURVIES...A MODEST INCREASE IN
STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 TO
36 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 345/15. THERE HAS NOT BEEN
MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND GFDL STILL
SUGGESTING THAT PHILIPPE WILL SLOW DOWN AND NOT GET PICKED UP BY
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET
ACCELERATE PHILIPPE AND/OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL LOW NORTHEASTWARD
AND MERGES IT WITH THE FRONT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO BUT IS NOT AS FAST WITH THE
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION. THE TRACK WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD BUT IT REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 28.8N 58.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 30.7N 59.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 33.0N 59.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 35.3N 58.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 25/0000Z 36.5N 55.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 26/0000Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE.


#47782 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 PM 22.Sep.2005)
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005

RITA IS GOING TROUGH THE WEAKENING PHASE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE AND DATA FROM THE NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 125 KNOTS...AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.
HOWEVER...THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS REMAINED AROUND 913
MB...WHICH IS A VERY LOW PRESSURE TO HAVE ONLY 125 KNOTS. IN
ADDITION TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...RITA IS CURRENTLY
MOVING OVER THE EDGE OF A COLD SST EDDY. THIS COULD HAVE ENHANCED
THE WEAKENING TODAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER ANOTHER
WARM EDDY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THERE IS SOME CHANCE
THAT RITA COULD REGAIN SOME INTENSITY. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE...THIS MAY COMPENSATE FOR THE STRENGTHENING
THAT MAY BE CAUSED BY THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH HEAT CONTENT. THE
BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP RITA AS A 125 KT HURRICANE WITH
A SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT RITA
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE OF AT LEAST A
CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO BE
STEERED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
UPPER-TEXAS OR THE WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD. AFTER LANDFALL...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND THE CYCLONE COULD MEANDER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE VICINITY
OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS.

BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII...THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COAST. ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW ORLEANS
AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 25.8N 89.5W 125 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 26.5N 90.7W 125 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 27.8N 92.4W 125 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 29.2N 93.8W 120 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 30.5N 94.5W 75 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 25/1800Z 33.0N 95.0W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 26/1800Z 33.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 27/1800Z 33.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND


#47771 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:25 PM 22.Sep.2005)
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005

ALTHOUGH I AM NOT CERTAIN THAT THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER OF
PHILIPPE ACTUALLY STILL HAS A CLOSED SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONVECTION AND APPARENT ROTATION TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
AS A NOMINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE TIME BEING. PHILIPPE IS A
SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD NON-TROPICAL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON AN
EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AND A 30 KT SHIP REPORT SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR SWEEPING OVER THE CYCLONE FROM THE SOUTH. A HIGHLY
DIFLUENT LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW IS LOCATED JUST TO THE CYCLONE'S
NORTH...BUT THIS PATTERN AND PHILIPPE APPEAR TO BE MOVING MORE OR
LESS IN TANDEM...SO I AM NOT EXPECTING THE CYCLONE TO BE ABLE TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE AS PHILIPPE
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE BECOMING
ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/15. PHILIPPE...WHICH IS A RELATIVELY
SHALLOW SYSTEM...IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE BROADER LOW IN
WHICH IT IS EMBEDDED FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. IN ABOUT 48
HOURS A FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE APPROACHING PHILIPPE FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES GENERALLY WITH THIS SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE NOGAPS AND UKMET ACCELERATING PHILIPPE
AND/OR THE NON-TROPICAL LOW NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL
LEAVE PHILIPPE BEHIND OR MOVE IT NORTHEAST ONLY SLOWLY. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTION AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE 12Z UKMET RUN.

IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT PHILIPPE WILL LOSE ITS CLOSED CIRCULATION
AND DISSIPATE MUCH EARLIER THAN SHOWN BELOW.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 27.5N 57.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 29.5N 59.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 31.3N 60.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 32.8N 60.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 24/1800Z 35.0N 58.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 25/1800Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE


#47708 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:01 AM 22.Sep.2005)
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005

RITA APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS. HURRICANES TYPICALLY DO NOT MAINTAIN SUCH HIGH INTENSITY
FOR A LONG TIME. INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 145 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...AN OVERALL GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS BASED ON
LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND INCREASING
SHEAR. NEVERTHERELESS...RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A
DANGEROUS HURRICANE OF AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY.

RITA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8
KNOTS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING RITA
TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TRACK. THE EASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS...RESULTING IN
TRACK GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY TURNING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH TOWARD THE UPPER-TEXAS OR THE WESTERN LOUISIANA
COASTS. AFTER LANDFALL...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND THE CYCLONE COULD MEANDER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE VICINITY
OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS.

BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE HURRICANE WARNING.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 25.4N 88.7W 145 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 25.8N 89.9W 140 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 26.9N 91.6W 130 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 28.2N 93.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 30.0N 94.5W 100 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 25/1200Z 33.0N 95.0W 45 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 26/1200Z 34.0N 95.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 27/1200Z 34.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND


#47702 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 22.Sep.2005)
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005

DETERMINING A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT THIS MORNING.
THE CENTER THAT WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS APPEARS
TO BE DISSIPATING WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...AND
SATELLITE REPRESENTATION SHOWS THE OVERALL SYSTEM OBTAINING
SUBTROPICAL OR EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS RATHER QUICKLY. DVORAK
DATA T-NUMBERS ARE ARE 2.5...35 KT FROM TAFB AND 1.5...25 KT FROM
SAB. BASED ON A FEW POSSIBLY RAIN CONTAMINATED 35 KT WIND BARBS
FROM A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35
KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 350/15. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES PHILIPPE INTERACTING WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN THE FUTURE TRACK
OF THE PHILIPPE/EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE UKMET MODEL ACCELERATES THE
CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD IN THREE DAYS...WHILE THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS
A WEAKENING SLOW DECAY WITH LITTLE NORTHEAST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TAKES A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH...ABSORBING PHILIPPE
INTO THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION WITHIN 12 HOURS. UNLESS
THE REMNANT VORTICITY OF PHILIPPE BECOMES BETTER DEFINED THIS
AFTERNOON...ADVISORIES WILL BE DISCONTINUED. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE
FOR PHILIPPE TO REGAIN TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IF THE GFS SOLUTION
PLAYS OUT.

FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 26.2N 57.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 28.2N 57.6W 35 KT...ABSORBED
24HR VT 23/1200Z 30.6N 58.7W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 24/0000Z 32.6N 58.8W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 24/1200Z 34.5N 57.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 25/1200Z 36.5N 51.6W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 26/1200Z 38.5N 45.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 27/1200Z 40.0N 39.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


#47649 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 22.Sep.2005)
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005

IF RITA HAS NOT PEAKED IN INTENSITY...IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS PRETTY
CLOSE TO DOING SO. THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 897 MB...WHICH SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE
DURING THE PAST 8 HR. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SO FAR ARE
165 KT IN THE NE EYEWALL...WHICH IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
161 KT OBSERVED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS A
INCREASINGLY STRONG OUTER WIND MAXIMUM THAT IS LIKELY THE START OF
A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THE END OF
THE ECLIPSE PERIOD SHOWS WARMING OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
BASED ON ALL OF THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 150 KT.

RITA HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/8. RAWINSONDE DATA SHOWS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HR. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW RITA TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD WITH TIME. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
NOW CLUSTERED AROUND A LANDFALL BETWEEN THE SABINE RIVER AND
MATAGORDA TEXAS IN 48-60 HR...WITH A NET EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST PACKAGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO
SHIFTED EASTWARD ABOUT 30 N MI...CALLING FOR LANDFALL NEAR THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND GALVESTON BAY. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE NEW TRACK IS ALONG THE LEFT OR WEST SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF
GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. FIRST...THE
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WILL LIKELY KEEP RITA OVER THE LOOP CURRENT
LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO THE EFFECT OF LOWER OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED IN THE FIRST
24 HR OR SO. SECOND...THE GFS AND SHIP MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT
SHEAR OVER RITA AFTER 24 HR...WHICH RESULTS IN SHIPS CALLING FOR
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY
OF WISCONSIN SHOW ABOUT 12 KT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EAST OF RITA...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
SUGGEST THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THE
GFS AND SHIPS MAY BE OVERDOING THE SHEAR. FINALLY...THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST ONE AND POSSIBLE MORE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES BEFORE
LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT
SHEAR AND REDUCED OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING...
ESPECIALLY AFTER RITA MOVES WEST OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN 24-36 HR.
SUPERIMPOSED ON TOP OF THIS WILL BE FLUCTUATIONS CAUSED BY
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR SLOW OVERALL WEAKENING BUT
NOT AS MUCH AS SHOWN BY SHIPS.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 24.9N 88.0W 150 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 25.3N 89.3W 150 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 26.1N 91.1W 145 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 27.2N 92.8W 140 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 28.8N 94.3W 130 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 32.0N 95.5W 65 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 26/0600Z 34.1N 95.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 27/0600Z 34.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING


#47638 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:31 AM 22.Sep.2005)
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005

PHILIPPE REMAINS VERY DISORGANIZED...WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION IN
SCATTERED CLUSTERS NEAR/AROUND THE ESTIMATED CENTER AND LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES. MY BEST GUESS IS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
WEAKENED TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. SHEARING AND SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N 62W HAVE
BEEN DISRUPTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE SQUEEZED INTO A CYCLONIC
SHEAR AXIS...CREATING AN ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FIELD OVER
PHILIPPE THAT WOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER I SEE NO SIGN OF
THIS HAPPENING WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THEREFORE NO CHANGE
IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS WITH ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THEREAFTER. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT...GIVEN ITS
SOMEWHAT SUBTROPICAL APPEARANCE...THE SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN AS A
HYBRID-TYPE OF CYCLONE. ASSUMING THAT PHILIPPE WILL INTERACT WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FORECAST SHOWS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSFORMATION BY DAY 5.

THE CENTER CANNOT BE IDENTIFIED WITH GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AND I
HAVE BASED THE LOCATION PRIMARILY ON A POOR FIX USING AN AMSU-B
IMAGE. A RECENT AMSR-E IMAGE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER MAY BE
LOCATED MORE TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT WE WILL WAIT FOR VISIBLE
IMAGERY TO CONFIRM THIS. FOR THE TIME BEING...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 350/10. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A MOTION AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURE CELL. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER PHILIPPE WILL BE PICKED UP BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SOME GLOBAL MODELS...E.G. THE GFS...
INDICATE THAT AT LEAST A PIECE OF PHILIPPE'S VORTICITY WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND IN THE SUBTROPICS. BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THAT
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 23.3N 57.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 25.5N 57.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 28.1N 59.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 30.5N 60.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 32.5N 59.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 35.0N 54.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 26/0600Z 37.0N 48.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 27/0600Z 38.5N 41.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL