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| #535716 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:47 PM 20.Aug.2012) TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER...ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD SOON BE REQUIRED FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION... AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH |
| #535699 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:20 PM 20.Aug.2012) TWOAT SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 520 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY WEDNESDAY AND INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. UPDATED...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/PASCH |
| #535660 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:11 PM 20.Aug.2012) TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY WEDNESDAY AND INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF IT REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
| #535602 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:47 AM 20.Aug.2012) TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 115 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE EASTERN AZORES. A TROPICAL WAVE AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF IT REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SOME DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
| #535543 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:56 AM 20.Aug.2012) TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN THE EASTERN AZORES ISLANDS ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF SANTA MARIA ISLAND AND ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE LARGE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
