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Tropical Storm Conditions Just Offshore Mex Coastline.

Posted: 07:14 AM 20 June 2016 | | Add Comment

6:00AM CDT June 20
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE


Recon sampled TD FOUR around 0700 this morning to find an elongated looking system barely qualifying as a tropical cyclone, but in the space of just two hours minimum central pressure had dropped by 4mb, still falling, with maximum sustained winds as derived by SFMR comfortably running at least 35 MPH, and rising. Of some interest, a secondary tight circulation center exists at the southernmost portion of FOUR's deep convection, but this feature is not likely to replace the primary.

In addition to southeastern Mexico waking up to a more serious looking tropical cyclone, the storm is apparently doing some stair-stepping (northwesterly) into landfall, sending more of its inclement weather further up the coast, with loosely associated thundershowers now even pushing in as far north as Brownsville, TX. Also, stair-stepping up the coast into landfall could allow for more time over water.

The next name on the list this season is Danielle. This would be the earliest fourth named storm in the Atlantic basin on record, although some nameable systems were likely missed before the advent of better detection, and especially so prior to the modern satellite era.



Danielle Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Danielle


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Danielle (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Danielle (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Danielle

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Danielle
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Danielle -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


95L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 95L


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 95L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 95L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 95L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 95L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

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Recon Finds Invest 94L a Tropical Depression

Posted: 07:55 PM 18 June 2016 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 06:16 PM 19-Jun EDT

4:30PM CDT June 19 Update

Recon has found Invest 94L with a well-defined surface center of circulation and just enough organized deep convection to be classified as a Tropical Depression, and advisories have begun on TD FOUR. The tropical cyclone is forecast to become Tropical Storm Danielle and make landfall along the Mexican state of Veracruz.




1:00PM EDT June 19 Update

Invest 94L appears to have consolidated overnight into a location further south and west of where many agencies were tracking its mean center, and now much more aligned with the actual surface circulation.

If this continues to verify, it would take Texas out of any risk, save some additional moisture influx next week, and place extreme southeast Mexico under the gun for copious rains and flooding. Also, with maximum sustained winds now estimated at 35MPH, only a small increase in organization and wind speed would necessitate Tropical Storm Warnings for the coastline there.


8:00PM EDT June 18

A remarkably early start to an Atlantic basin season is trying to add another notch on its belt. The wave we have been following in the northwest Caribbean, now being tracked as Invest 94L, has developed into an area of tightening surface low pressure in the Bay of Campeche.

There is a window of between another two to three or so days before the Low moves inland, for continued development, and as such there is probably enough time for more than just a tropical depression to form. Shear in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is fairly supportive, and while dry air is abundant, it is starting to mix out from the increasing convection firing up within 94L's circulation.

The next name on the list this year is Danielle. This would be yet another all-time record early date for names in the Atlantic, with 2016 having just broken the record for earliest 3rd name. 94L could be setting the new record for earliest 4th named - previously the bragging rights of 2012, when Tropical Storm Debby formed on June 23rd of that year.




TD#4 Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of td#4


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of td#4 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of td#4 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of td#4

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for td#4
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on td#4 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

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Colin Exits Back to Slow

Posted: 06:03 AM 08 June 2016 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 03:34 PM 08-Jun EDT

Colin, a system that never got very organized, has moved well out to sea at this point, only a small bit of the stream of rain left behind remains. Colin was mostly a rain event with a few areas of coastal flooding, and street flooding, north central Florida got the majority of rain, areas north of tampa, Gainesville, and toward St. Augustine had the most. Rain also made the way up through Georgia, South and North Carolina before it moved away from shore.

Beyond Colin, the East Pacific had its first Tropical Depression, short lived, but still is oddly behind the Atlantic 0-3 as far as named storms.



There is nothing credible to look out for in the Atlantic now, just general areas to watch for June including around the Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf) (remnants of TD1-E From the east Pacific) and leftovers from the moisture associated with Colin in the western Caribbean. Neither of which appears to be strong enough to do much with shear increasing again in that area. Colin managed to form in a weak spot in the shear, but was still greatly affected by the shear all around it. These areas don't have that going for them, so nothing is expected to develop for the next week or so.

Typical areas in June to watch are in the extreme Western Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, concentrated around the area where Colin formed, and just east of the Southeast coast (Where Bonnie formed). If anything were to develop from the leftovers of Colin, it would likely be east of the coast and stay offshore. But even that is not very likely. There is also an area near the western tip of Cuba worth watching.

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

94 L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

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Tropical Storm Colin Forms in Southern Gulf TS Warnings up for Florida Coasts

Posted: 11:40 AM 05 June 2016 | 18 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 12:09 AM 07-Jun EDT

1:15PM EDT 6 June 2016 Update


Colin barely qualifies as a Tropical Cyclone, with frontal-like features becoming increasingly obvious. This is not to say that the cyclone is without risks. Many times TCs transitioning to Post-Tropical actually become more intense during this phase. On the other hand, it is not yet clear that Colin won't still get its tropical act together, though not likely.

The big picture is one where the focus needs to be well removed from the center of "Colin" and his Cone of Uncertainty track, because the heavy weather is almost nowhere to be found there. Heavy rains, as well as squalls with gusts to perhaps as high as hurricane force, and maybe a few tornadoes, will continue pushing inland throughout the day until the feeder band now extending south-southwest from west central Florida into the northwest Caribbean has passed to the east of the state. This may take a while, with the southern half of the state probably still affected well into tomorrow, and maybe even into Wednesday.

- Ciel

6:00AM EDT 6 June 2016 Update

Colin remains a highly disorganized Tropical storm, but has managed to strengthen slightly overnight to 50MPH based on recon reports.



The rain shield will move over Florida later today. Parts of Florida have already received some outer rain bands from Colin. Threat of heavy rain and some short-lived isolated tornadoes does exist, but it will primarily just be a rain event for Florida.

11:00PM EDT 5 June 2016 Update
Tropical Storm Warnings are now up from Sebastian Inlet (Brevard/Indian River Line) to the Altamaha Sound in Georgia
and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued north of Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South Carolina.


5:45PM EDT 5 June 2016 Update
Recon has found Tropical Storm force winds, and thus Tropical Depression 3 is Now Upgraded to Tropical Storm Colin. This is the earliest we have seen the 3rd named storm since official hurricane tracking began.

5PM EDT 5 June 2016 Update
Tropical Storm Watches are now up from Flagler to Altahama Sound, GA. The depression strengthened a bit, but recon has yet to find enough to call it a tropical storm. It is still forecast to become Tropical STorm Colin late tonight or tomorrow. IT should make landfall near the big bend Tomorrow afternoon. Flood watches remain up for Central and North Florida. Tropcial Storm warnings are also up for the Gulf coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Englewood.

Original Update

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Englewood as Tropical Depression 3 has formed.



Let us know what conditions are like in your area here.


More to come soon.

Flhurricane recording of Florida Radar (w/ track) approach of 93L

Buoy Camera off Yucaan for 93L (June 2016) 120 NM ESE of Cozumel, MX Recording
Flhurricane recording of Beach Palace hotel webcam in Cancun
Flhurricane recording of Colin approach to downtown Gulfport, FL
Flhurricane recording of Colin approach to S. Shore in Gulfport, FL

Other webcams near Cozumel/Cancun

Flhurricane Orlando weather cam (static image)
Flhurricane Orlando/Universal Webcam Ustream

Colin Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Colin


stormplotthumb_3.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Colin (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Colin (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Colin

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Colin
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Colin -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)



Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Tampa Area Media:

Bay News 9

WFLA News 8 (NBC)

Bay Action News (ABC)

WTSP Channel 10 (CBS)

My Fox Tampa Bay

WWSB ABC 7 Sarasota

Tampa Bay Times

Tampa Bay Online

Sarasota Herald Tribune

970 WFLA Tampa News/Talk Radio

News Media (East Central Florida):

Television:

Newspapers:

News Radio:

Check local media and officials when a storm is approaching your area.

Southwest Florida (Naples/Ft.Myers) Area Media:

WINK News 11 Fort Myers CBS

WBBH NBC 2 Fort Myers NBC

ABC 7 Naples ABC

FOX 4 Florida Cape Coral FOX

WFSX Fox 92.5 News Radio

WCCF News Radio 1580 Port Charlotte

News Press

Naples Daily News

Florida Power Outage Maps

Duke Energy Florida Outage Map - Most of Central and Northern Florida

Florida Power and Light Outage Map (Much of South Florida)

Orlando Utilities Commision Outage Map

Tampa Electric Outage Map

JEA (Jacksonville) Outage Map

Gulf Power (Western Panhandle)

Clay Electric Outage Map (Gainsville/ North Central Florida area)

Lakeland Electric Outage Map

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Watching an Area in the West Caribbean

Posted: 02:10 PM 03 June 2016 | 11 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 09:40 AM 05-Jun EDT

7:45PM EDT Update 4 June 2016
93L Likely to become a Depression/Tropical Storm tomorrow night. Tropical Storm watches/warnings for Florida could go up late tomorrow.

From Miami:
"Another potential threat is tornadic storms. The latest model guidance is not painting a pretty picture for much of the southern half of the peninsula of Florida as lower level shear values will be increasing on Sunday night into Monday across the region.

This could pose an emerging nocturnal tornado threat late Sunday night into Monday morning, currently with a focus over Southwest Florida, that grows on Monday to include other portions of southern and central Florida by Monday afternoon and evening.
The 12z GFS offers 0-1 km helicity values exceeding 200 m2/s2 over southwest Florida on Monday with the 12z ECMWF not much behind that around 100 m2/s2. There is still great uncertainty with this system, but the tornadic threat may indeed present itself even if the storm center tracks further away from the region."

3:30PM EDT Update 4 June 2016
93L continues to spin, not terribly organized, but likely spots for it to organize are starting to become apparent, the low designated as 93l is actually elongated toward the northeast, and it is here, just along the western edge of the convection, where a system is most likely to form. This system is
better for "Blob Watchiing" rather than point watching, since the energy is mostly on the eastern side.



Development is possible late tonight, although much more likely tomorrow afternoon or evening. 80% chance for development overall. Regardless of how strong the system gets it will affect Florida with a lot of rain Monday into Tuesday, and could bring some short-lived tornadoes and minor coastal flooding along parts of the west coast of Florida. The amount of which is dependent on how strong the system gets, but it could come across as a depression to low-mid level Tropical Storm. If named, it would be called Colin.

Original Update
The system in the western Caribbean is now being tracked as 93L, current models suggest heavy amounts of rainfall and a possible weak to mid level Tropical Storm that could affect Florida starting Late Monday into Tuesday. It's important not to take too much stock in exact areas of landfall with the models since the system only very recently started to get organized, but the general pattern of a Florida impact seems fairly certain.

If the system is named, it will be called Colin. This would be all-recorded time early date for the 3rd named storm of the season. On the flipside, no named storms in the east pacific yet, which is usually backward from typical. Early activity has no bearing on later in the season, however.



How strong and exactly where is still out, but most of the energy in the system will likely be pulled east, so rain would be felt well before the center came across, the system would likely race across the state.

In short the system is likely to head north of where it is now, then bend to the northeast toward just north of Tampa (with most of the energy to the east) a fast moving and likely heavily sheared system on Tuesday morning. The primary threat is all the rain in Florida with a small area of mid tropical storm strength winds, and the possibility of some minor coastal flooding.

Heavy rainfall, some down bursts, and possible short lived tornadoes are what may be seen in a system like this.

More to come soon. The latest lounge speculation can be found At this link.


Tropical Depression Bonnie continues to race out to sea, but is looking better on satellite and may be upgraded to a Tropical Storm later today.

Buoy Camera off Yucaan for 93L (June 2016) 120 NM ESE of Cozumel, MX Recording
Flhurricane recording of Beach Palace hotel webcam in Cancun
Flhurricane recording of Florida Radar (w/ track) approach of 93L
Other webcams near Cozumel/Cancun



93L (West Caribbean/S. Gulf) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 93L


stormplotthumb_3.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 93L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 93L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 93L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 93L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 93L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Bonnie Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Bonnie


stormplotthumb_2.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Bonnie (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Bonnie (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Bonnie

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Bonnie
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Bonnie -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Tampa Area Media:

Bay News 9

WFLA News 8 (NBC)

Bay Action News (ABC)

WTSP Channel 10 (CBS)

My Fox Tampa Bay

WWSB ABC 7 Sarasota

Tampa Bay Times

Tampa Bay Online

Sarasota Herald Tribune

970 WFLA Tampa News/Talk Radio

News Media (East Central Florida):

Television:

Newspapers:

News Radio:

Check local media and officials when a storm is approaching your area.

Southwest Florida (Naples/Ft.Myers) Area Media:

WINK News 11 Fort Myers CBS

WBBH NBC 2 Fort Myers NBC

ABC 7 Naples ABC

FOX 4 Florida Cape Coral FOX

WFSX Fox 92.5 News Radio

WCCF News Radio 1580 Port Charlotte

News Press

Naples Daily News

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Ed Dunham

Developing TS Colin Heads for Florida

Posted: 02:08 PM 05 June 2016
The 2016 Tropical Cyclone Season has been well underway since January with Hurricane Alex and then Tropical Storm Bonnie in May. Sunday morning Tropical Depression #3 formed just off the northeast tip of the Yucatan peninsula. TD3 will move north and northeast in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the cyclone should become Tropical Storm Colin later this afternoon/evening. Although warm sea temperatures exist in the Gulf, moderate windshear will limit intensification of the cyclone to a slow pace. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) brings Colin ashore in the Apalachee Bay area in the northeast Gulf near Steinhatchee, Florida, Monday evening with winds of 50mph gusting to 60mph and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Englewood.

After landfall the NHC forecast takes Colin rapidly across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia and into the Atlantic by sunrise Tuesday morning. Eventually Tropical Storm Warnings are anticipated for the northeast Florida and Georgia coasts. Colin should continue to slowly strengthen and continue a rapid northeast movement into the open waters of the Atlantic. Windshear may dictate a slight adjustment of the track to the east - but not by much - perhaps from Cedar Key to Jacksonville.

The primary threat from Colin will be heavy rainfall on Monday and Tuesday over the entire Florida peninsula with rainfall totals up to six or seven inches in the northern portion of the peninsula, three to five inches in the central portion of the peninsula and two or three inches in the south. Because northeast Florida and the entire Florida peninsula will be in the eastern sector of the tropical storm, isolated tornadoes are likely from mid-day Monday through late Tuesday afternoon. Windshear will make Colin a lopsided system with almost all of the associated weather restricted to the eastern sector of the tropical cyclone. Brisk south to southwest winds are likely over the peninsula Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon with gusts up to 35mph and perhaps an isolated gust to 45mph in Central Florida asociated with strong rainsqualls. Localized flooding is likely with this heavy rainfall event.
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