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Remnant TD9 Moves into the Yucatan. TS Warnings Have Been Dropped.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 112 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3287 (9 y 0 m) (Wilma)
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Tropical Depression Nine Moving over the Yucatan from the West

Posted: 07:35 AM 20 October 2014 | 3 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 12:23 PM 22-Oct EDT

5AM Update 22 October 2014
Tropical Depression 9 formed from 93L late last night and is now moving generally eastward over toward the Yucatan.

A tropical storm warning is up in Mexico there from Celestun to Frontera. Beyond this it is expected to weaken over the peninsula and re-emerge int he northwest Caribbean, where it becomes a bit more muddled. It is likely to dissipate by then.

If Florida receives any part of whatever becomes of TD#9, it would likely be mid to late next week.

Original Update
Hurricane Gonzalo has transitioned into extra-tropical and the remnants are moving quickly near Scotland, and Ana has moved to the west of the Hawaiian Islands. Ana did bring a lot of rough surf and rain to the Islands. (around 5 inches to Honolulu)

It's late October, but there are two areas currently being watched in the Atlantic, one in the far eastern Atlantic, 92L is likely to remain out to sea , and only has about a 30% chance to develop.

The other one, 93L is in the Gulf in the Bay of Campeche, and also has a 30% for development over the week. The more interesting aspect of this one is that it may affect South Florida or Cuba this weekend, most likely as a rainmaker or subtropical system. It should be watched through the week.

In general the Gulf/Western Caribbean may be active over the next few weeks.

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

94L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Tropical Depression Nine Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#9


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#9 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#9 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#9

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#9
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#9 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)




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Hurricane Gonzalo Slamming Bermuda

Posted: 09:07 PM 10 October 2014 | 2 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 06:59 AM 17-Oct EDT

11PM EDT Update 17 October 2014



Gonzalo passing over Bermuda, and some of the strongest winds have been on the back eye wall.

From the discussion:
The following information is provided at the request of the Bermuda
Weather Service -- damage to the old and new hospitals has been
reported, the AWOS weather sensors at the Bermuda International
Airport have been damaged due to saltwater inundation and are
inoperable, and the RCC Bermuda Radio Maritime Operations Center at
St. Georges has been damaged and is inoperable.


7AM EDT Update 17 October 2014

Hurricane Gonzalo is approaching bermuda tonight and if it maintains the forecast may bring approx 10 ft of storm surge to the island as well as extremely strong winds. Bermuda seems relatively well prepared for the system, but the worst should be late this afternoon into the early evening there.



Bermuda Newspapers/Media:

Royal Gazette (Bermuda)

Bermuda Sun

Hott 107.5 Bermuda Radio

Storm Carib Bermuda Reports

Bermuda Weather Service

Port Bermuda Webcam (IE only) Alternate Link to Port Bermuda Cam

Bermuda Radar Recording of Gonzalo approach

Hurricanetrack Tower Cam Recording of Gonzalo approach at Shelly Bay, Bermuda

Bermuda News Gonzalo Live STreams


Canadian Hurricane Centre

8AM EDT Update 15 October 2014
Gonzalo moved across the northern Leewards and is now forecast to move near or just west of Bermuda on Friday. A hurricane watch is up for Bermuda.

Gonzalo has become a category 3 major hurricane and has the chance to become a cat 4 before moving over colder waters and then a possible second landfall in southeastern Newfoundland.


Mark Sudduth from Hurricanetrack.com is heading out to Bermuda this morning.

5:25PM EDT Update 13 October 2014
Gonzalo is now a strengthening hurricane, and currently over St. Martin(French/North Side)/St. Maarten (Dutch/South Side) and nearing Anguilla. The system is in the process of rapidly strengthening now, as huge bursts of convection are now being seen near the eye of Gonzalo. Those in the islands it is directly passing over will need to stay indoors.

Beyond the islands, Bermuda may have to watch the track of Gonzalo.

4:45PM EDT Update 12 October 2014
Gonzalo has forced Hurricane Watches for the US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra. Also
Antigua and Barbuda.

From the National Hurricane Center's discussion, the system is already starting to develop an eye, which could be a signal of rapid intensification, therefore the hurricane watch area was expanded to include more. Those in the watch area please pay close attention, and prepare for the possibility of a storm stronger than forecast.



Fay has also been upgraded to a hurricane, but expected to weaken soon.

3:45PM EDT Update 12 October 2014
Tropical Storm Gonzalo has formed east of the Caribbean Leewards islands, and watches and warnings have been issued for:

Guadeloupe, Desirade, Les Saintes, Marie Galante, St. martin and St. Bathelemy, St. Maartin, Saba, St. Eustatius, Barbuda, Angilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, British and US Virgin Islands, and Peurto Rico.

Currently Gonzalo is forecast to be a hurricane as it approaches Puerto Rico, so that watch may be upgraded depending on the development of the system. In fact,with the system the way it currently is, I'd assume the watch for Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands will be upgraded to a hurricane watch/warning later, so if you are in the area please prepare for that.

Beyond Peurto Rico, it is expected to stay out to sea, but may near Bermuda..

Those in the Watch/Warning areas will want to watch this system very closely, especially in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Mark Sudduth from Hurricanetrack.com will be out in Puerto Rico very soon.

Gonzalo is a small system, and can rapidly increase or decrease in strength,

Radar Recording of Antilles Radar of Gonzalo approach
Radar Recording of Barbados Radar of Gonzalo approach

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Original Update
The storm being tracked as Subtropical Storm #7 has strengthened rather rapidly this evening into the 60mph Subtropical Storm Fay. Not to be confused with Tropical Storm Fay of 2008, which affected Florida, especially east central Florida, with a great deal of rain. That one also had 3 Florida Landfalls and strengthened while over Lake Okeechobee. The name wasn't retired, so 6 years later it is in use again as this system.

This year's Fay is moving North Northwest is forecast to move just east of Bermuda, but close enough to Bermuda to cause a Tropical Storm Watch. With it likely having a large windfield as it nears, this may hold, even if the system does not go directly over Bermuda.

Outside of this, Invest 90L needs to be watched in the eastern Caribbean islands, but based on the pattern this time of year it is unlikely to have direct affects on the mainland US.

Bermuda Newspapers/Media:

Royal Gazette (Bermuda)

Bermuda Sun

Hott 107.5 Bermuda Radio

Storm Carib Bermuda Reports

Bermuda Weather Service

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Gonzalo Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Gonzalo


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gonzalo (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gonzalo (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Gonzalo

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Gonzalo
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gonzalo -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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Slow Atlantic on the 10th Anniversary of the last 2004 Florida Hurricane

Posted: 08:52 AM 26 September 2014 | | Add Comment

Today marks 10 years since the landfall of hurricane Jean, the last of the "big 4" to hit in 2004. It made landfall in the evening, only a few miles from where Hurricane Frances made lade fall a few weeks before. Jeanne was notable for doing a large loop in the Bahamas and causing erosion and damage along the east beaches all the way up to Volusia county, The highest winds were felt in Indian river and southern Brevard county. Surge and beach erosion caused damage to structures into Volusia county, however.

One more hurricane, Wilma, would make landfall in Florida the following year before the nearly 9 year gap (and counting) we have now. Only a few tropical storms affected Florida since 2005.

Although 96L is being tracked in the Central Atlantic, the generally hostile conditions across the Atlantic will likely keep this one from developing. "home grown" systems closer to us are the most likely place for formation at this time, and nothing is organized enough to be a threat short term. Stalled fronts have caused excessive rainfall this week in Florida, but nothing tropically significant was able to come of it.

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Subtropical Depression Seven Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of SubTD7


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of SubTD7 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of SubTD7 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of SubTD7

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for SubTD7
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on SubTD7 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


90L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 90L


stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 90L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 90L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 90L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 90L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 90L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

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Low Near the Bahamas may bring a Rainy Friday to South Florida

Posted: 07:36 PM 10 September 2014 | 3 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 09:55 AM 14-Sep EDT

7PM ED 11 September 2014 Update
The area of low pressure, around 100 miles east of Stuart, FL is bringing rain toward parts of South Florida, and the northern side is being "squeezed" out. So what's left is a weak, relatively small, low system with some rain moving into Florida tomorrow. The small size will keep most of the rain to the south, with only short lived bands moving into parts of Central Florida. Beyond Florida, into the gulf, the system will continue to fight strong shearing conditions which should keep it weak while in the Gulf as well.

Notice anything interesting with weather conditions related to this system in your area, let us know In the conditions post.


11AM Update
Tropical Depression 6 formed from what was being tracked as 91L. This system is forecast to stay well out to sea, but may become a hurricane next week.

Original Update
Today is the typical peak of the Hurricane Season, but this year there are no named systems to track. There are two areas still being watched, an area in the east Atlantic being tracked as 91L, which is likely to remain offshore, but has a 70% chance to develop over the next 5 days.

Another area near the Bahamas has a low chance for development over the next few days as it heads toward south Florida. It has a chance to become a weak tropical storm or depression, but shear conditions around it would likely keep it from doing much more. The northeasterly flow should be the main cause of the shear. But it will likely bring some rainfall for a few areas in Central or South Florida. It's a fairly small system, so the area of rainfall may be localized to right where the system is.

Although it is not expected to become strong or even develop, it's important to watch small systems like these as they can spin up and down very quickly.

For more discussion on this system see the forecast lounge for the system.

Recon is scheduled to investigate tomorrow if the system persists.

Full Florida Radar Recording for 92L Approach

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Edouard Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Edouard


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Edouard (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Edouard (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Edouard

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Edouard
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Edouard -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


96L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 96L


stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 96L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 96L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 96L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 96L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 96L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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Climatological Peak Arrives With Gulf of Mexico Dolly

Posted: 02:10 PM 29 August 2014 | 2 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 05:59 AM 02-Sep EDT

4:00 AM CDT 2 September 2014 Update
Tropical Storm Dolly (from Invest 99L) is challenging forecasts, and is now starting to put south Texas at some risk for impacts. As of this update, tropical storm force winds are occurring up to 115 miles from the center. In response, the government of Mexico has extended the tropical storm warning area northward to Barra El Mezquital.

Weather Conditions at Ciudad Victoria, Mexico
Weather Conditions at Tampico, Mexico

4:30 PM CDT 1 September 2014 Update
Invest 99L which made its way from the Caribbean across the Yucatan and into the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become the fifth tropical cyclone of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Tropical Depression Five presently consists of a well defined surface circulation with a curved band of hearty convection wrapping around to the south and east of the center, and maximum sustained winds of 30 MPH. Five is forecast to become Dolly and make landfall well south of The Texas/Mexico border around mid-week as a low-end tropical storm.

Original Update


The end of August comes with entering the climatological peak for activity in the Atlantic basin, and it appears it could be coming right on schedule with no less than five areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic. Should any of these disturbances become better defined and/or they are issued Invest tags, we will set up individual Forecast Lounges, as warranted.

Closest to home, the broad low of old Invest 98L, which moved inland near Brownsville, Tx late yesterday, has subsumed a strong tropical surge that ran up behind it.

This merged feature is presently producing widespread tropical showers and some thunderstorms along the Gulf of Mexico from the Mexico/Texas border all the way to the west coast of Florida. Gusts of up to 50 MPH are occurring offshore, and as a westerly wind component already exists, despite the old center of 98L now being just inland, it may be wise to keep tabs on this throughout this holiday weekend, just in case. Sometimes inland centers can reform offshore, if given the chance. Either way, some on again/off again squally weather is a safe bet for much of the gulf coast today, and possibly into the rest of the weekend.

Below: Invest 98L 12:15PM CDT 8/29/2014


Texas Gulf Coast Links Texas/South Plains Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Corpus Christi, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Brownsville, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Houston/Galveston, TX - Corpus Christi, TX - Browsnville/South Padre Island, TX

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Dolly Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Dolly


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Dolly (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Dolly (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Dolly

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Dolly
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Dolly -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


91L (East Atlantic) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 91L


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 91L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 91L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 91L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


92L (Near Bahamas) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 92L


stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 92L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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Ed Dunham

End of an Era

Posted: 02:40 PM 01 September 2014
It is beginning to look like the era of 'high spin cycle' tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin that started in 1995 has run its course with only three named storms recorded through the end of August. There were hints of that demise last year with a below normal level of hurricane development, i.e., only two Cat I storms - the last time that the Atlantic only had two hurricanes in a season was 1982. The last time that a season had three or less named storms by August 31st was in 1994 - the last year of the previous 'quiet cycle' in the Atlantic.

In the 45 seasons from 1950-2014 there were 17 seasons that only had three named storms by August 31st, so its not an unusual event, but it is unusual that the last one was 20 years ago. At the other end of the activity spectrum, in 1995, 2005, 2011 and 2012 there were 12 named storms by August 31st. Here are the previous 16 seasons since 1950 with three or less named storms prior to September 1st along with activity totals for those years, totals for the following year, and hurricane landfall statistics for the 16 seasons:

Year - # by 8/31 - total activity - following year - U.S. landfalls - FL landfalls
1952 2 6/6/3 13/6/4 1 0
1956 3 8/4/2 7/3/2 1 1
1957 2 7/3/2 10/7/5 1 0
1961 1 11/8/7 5/3/1 2 0
1962 2 5/3/1 9/7/2 0 0
1963 2 9/7/2 12/6/6 1 0
1965 3 6/4/1 11/7/3 1 0
1967 1 8/6/1 8/4/0 1 0
1977 1 6/5/1 12/5/2 1 0
1980 3 11/9/2 12/7/3 1 0
1982 3 6/2/1 4/3/1 0 0
1983 2 4/3/1 13/5/1 1 0
1987 3 7/3/1 11/5/3 1 1
1991 2 8/4/2 7/4/1 1 0
1992 2 7/4/1 7/3/1 1 1
1994 3 7/3/0 19/11/5* 0 0

Average 2 7/5/2 9/5/2 1 0
(*1995 was not included in the 'following year' average since 1995 was the start of the active cycle.)

Note that although these were all slow starting years (and mostly quiet years), every season except 1994 had at least one major hurricane. Although these were mostly quiet years, only three of them did not have a U.S. landfalling hurricane, while in Florida only three seasons had a landfalling hurricane. In the following year, one season had normal activity while seven seasons were above normal and seven seasons had below normal named storm activity, i.e., no correlation to the previous year. On average, based on the 16 seasons that started with three named storms (or less) by August 31st, this season would be expected to have four more named storms - with a minimum of one more and a maximum of eight more.

Since the lack of activity cannot be blamed on an El Nino event (it has not yet started), it is increasingly likely that the period of Atlantic high tropical cyclone activity has ended. However, it is important to remember that the likelihood of a U.S. hurricane landfall is about the same (approximately 22%) during a 'quiet cycle' era as it is during an 'active cycle' era - and that is also true for a Florida hurricane landfall (about 5%).
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