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#99L Has Just Been Closed off. NHC Advisories Likely Soon. #Gaston Becomes First Major Cane of ATL 2016. Very Active Now.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 786 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3961 (10 y 10 m) (Wilma)
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TD#8 Forms - Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic

Posted: 05:26 AM 28 August 2016 | 6 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 04:26 PM 28-Aug EDT

11AM Update 28 August 2016
91L has become Tropical Depression Eight and is likely to form into Tropical Storm Hermine later today. Tropical Storm watches may be up for the Carolinas later today, but the forecast track keeps it just east of the Outer Banks.

99L Still has a chance to form tomorrow night or later in the week in the Gulf, the next name beyond Hermine is Ian. The system is stilll elongated and disorganized. Any organization with it will be slow. The name after Ian is Julia. The area north of Tampa, Big Bend and west along the Northern Gulf coast probably needs to watch it the closest.

Activity in the tropics will be in overdrive the next two weeks or so, including Hawaii which may be impacted by one or two storms.



Recon is scheduled to fly both TD#8 and 99L today. I suspect it'll be upgraded to Hermine when recon gets there.

Original Update


The most significant changes from this time yesterday is a necessary mention of Hawaii, and increased attention to some features closer to the lower 48, that were not getting much more than a second look before.

Out in the eastern to central Pacific, one Invest, one Tropical Storm and one Hurricane all have trajectories heading towards the Hawaiian islands. Possibly the most significant of these three is Hurricane Lester, that also has some potential for becoming an annular tropical cyclone. Closest to the island chain are an impressive, presently unnumbered Invest, and a strong Tropical Storm, Madeline. Both of these features could produce flooding rains on some or all of the islands.

Closest to Florida, Invest 99L continues to be earning more internet memes than praise, but the fact is, this tropical wave was as intense as we ever see them without being given a name, and then just had the misfortune of running into one obstacle after another, presently being some unforeseen moderately strong northerly shear. Once again, development, interrupted. IF this shear relaxes in time, then the most recent model runs could verify (a good guess is 50-50, but they have had more than their fair share of #99Lproblems).

It is worth noting that all of the most reliable tropical cyclone genesis models (GFS, ECMWF, UKMET), as well as several lesser ones, develop this area of low pressure into a nameable tropical cyclone once in the Gulf. Given 99L's tenacity, it may be best not to crack any more jokes.

Going further down the list, Invest 91L has improved structurally and a little bit so convectively overnight, with more showers and a few thunderstorms firing up within its center of circulation. Given that a reasonably well-defined surface circ already exists, if convection holds and builds, it might actually be more than a mere rain-maker. Models that had strongly advertised either a southwest or northeast course have been wrong so far, but of course, with 91L tracking more to its west-northwest. Interests along the Carolinas and out to sea from there may want to begin treating 91L as if it was already a depression.

Now in the far northwest Gulf of Mexico, a trof of low pressure with an associated wave pouch, not yet having been given an Invest tag, has been percolating more just offshore overnight. This Low is sliding southwest along the Texas coast. The surface trough runs the Texas coast from near 29N 95W along 27N 94W to 24N 88W. A core of breezy moderate to heavy showers accompanies this feature, and there is a non-negligible chance for some additional development.

Out at sea, Gaston is a strengthening hurricane, and could become the Atlantic's first Major of this year within 48 hours.

Hawaii - Trop Storm Madeline Lounge

Hawaii - Hur Lester Forecast Lounge

Tropical Depression 8) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#8


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#8 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#8 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#8

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#8
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#8 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

99L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 99L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Miami Long Range Radar Recording for 99L
Florida Radar Recording for 99L

Gaston Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Gaston


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gaston (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gaston (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Gaston

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Gaston
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gaston -- RAMMB Info

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East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

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Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

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Busy Map, Little Organization

Posted: 06:52 AM 27 August 2016 | 10 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 12:11 AM 28-Aug EDT

There are 4 areas in the tropical Atlantic being discussed right now, one, Gaston is an active Tropical Storm, but is also no threat to land.

The other area 99L, is still over the Bahamas, and still very disorganized with a 40% chance to develop over the next few days as it gets into the Gulf, briging some rain to Florida but likely not much more However, it still must be watched when it gets into the Gulf of Mexico, as it still has a shot at development there, and may turn back over Florida later. If you have been following it for a while you are probably tired of it, but it *still* must be watched.

91L is a system that is combined energy from a trough from a few days ago along with the remnants of Fiona, this is also given a shot to organize, but is fighting off a lot of dry air and shear, models do not develop it, but it is expected to get relatively close to the Carolina coast before being ejected out to sea (along with whatever remains of 99L) It has a good deal of convection though and past history with Fiona, so it also has a 30% chance to develop.

A fourth area, not tagged as an invest, is just offshore of the TX/LA border, but is just producing rain, only has a 10% chance to develop currently.



99L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 99L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Miami Long Range Radar Recording for 99L
Florida Radar Recording for 99L

91L (Partially Ex-Fiona) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 91L


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 91L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 91L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 91L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Gaston Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Gaston


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gaston (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gaston (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Gaston

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Gaston
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gaston -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

> Bahamas Media

Television & Radio:

ZNS Bahamas, Radio & TV

More 94 FM Bahamas


Newspapers:

Bahamas Tribune

Nassau Guardian

Bahamas B2B

Freeport News

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

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Gaston Becomes Hurricane 99L Still a Concern

Posted: 06:25 AM 25 August 2016 | 29 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 01:50 AM 27-Aug EDT

8:00AM EDT Update 26 August 2016
Chances are way down in the short term for 99L, but it is still being tracked. Impact chances for florida are very low.

With first morning visible satellite the only circulation I can find at the low levels is between Long Island and Crooked Island in the Bahamas, some convection is firing around it, but it may be short lived, as is the entire system. However, there is a chance it can linger on well into next week in the Gulf, so it still should be monitored.



4:00PM EDT Update 25 August 2016

Chances are rapidly decreasing for as much of an impact on south Florida due to a struggling system and the models backing off much of anything. Parts of south Florida or the keys will likely get some rain and a bit of breeze from the system based on the current runs, but likelihood of much beyond that is slim.

It is prudent to keep monitoring it in case anything changes as this area of the Atlantic is prone to surprises.

There still exists more of a risk for the Gulf coast, so folks from the west coast of Florida through Louisiana should still monitor it closely.

7:30AM EDT Update 25 August 2016



If 99L never becomes something especially serious, we may have the Dominican Republic to thank, with its devastatingly high and rugged terrain.

At 0600, a ship traveled near or through the core of 99L, experiencing up to 70 knot winds (80 MPH), with pressure down to 29.65, falling rapidly. During this time, 99L looked stunning on IR satellite, with radar out of Puerto Rico also suggestive of a tight LLC. Since this time however, the incipient tropical cyclone has been getting more hung up over this island. Additionally, the system is getting whacked by some shear from an upper level low to its north, while what we have referred to as its "Advance Low Level Circ" has also been siphoning off its vorticity.

If 99L can survive in one piece after its visit to the DR, then it may have it in it to attempt to rapidly organize once back out over very toasty waters, and likely in a more favorable upper air environment, than now. This scenario is definitely possible, given its tenacity.

Should it break into bits, then it may have to start back over, once again, almost from scratch and end up being more of a blustery rain maker over the next few days - although with a flooding threat.
-Ciel

Original Entry

Gaston has become the Atlantic's third hurricane of 2016, but is expected to remain out to sea, it is forecast to become a strong category 2 or possibly 3 hurricane later in the run.

99L remains the primary focus of most, with the center now roughly near 20.6 N 69.6W, still a disorganized mess with the primary circulation having convection on the south and east sides. Models are still mixed on strength, from weak wave to hurricane, but the general idea is a continued west northwest motion through the Bahamas and possibly into Florida and reemerging in the Gulf. The exact specifics are unfortunately too soon to tell, but Central Florida to the Keys needs to continue to watch closely. And if it makes it into the Gulf the area of concern would spread.



Today is a day of transition away from the Caribbean and dealing with the convection being over Hispaniola while the center is well north, the secondary vortex that seemed to pop up yesterday afternoon appears to be getting destroyed by the island of Hispaniola, which will leave the overall system in bit of a mess today. The big question is if and when it recovers, it has very hot water in the Bahamas to travel over before any potential Florida landfall, and this is where the anxiety lies. We are watching to see if and how well the system recovers from passing north of Hispaniola and if convection can be sustained on all sides of the center of the system. If convection begins to fire around the primary center this will indicate a window for strengthening that would impact how strong it would be in the Western Bahamas and Florida.

The danger being a intensifying system as it made landfall, which is notoriously difficult to predict in that area off South Florida. There is no clear indication that will happen, but none that it will not currently either. It really depends on what state the storm is when it reaches the area of the Central Bahamas. Today development is not expected much, if things happen earlier than expected today that would be concerning, if they don't it leaves it open until Tomorrow or Saturday. This is a very frustrating situation for emergency management as well, because it is difficult to prepare for this type of unknown, it may remain weak and not much happens, or it could rapidly intensify right before landfall. It's a waiting game to search for signals on either end.

Simple or short term preps (extra supplies) are a good idea now, larger preps along the coast are probably worth waiting until the system is in the Central Bahamas and if and when indications of a system getting its act together are there. It could very well fall apart today like some of the models suggest.

Cuban Radar Recording for 99L
Long floater sat Recording of 99L


99L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 99L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


91L (Partially Ex-Fiona) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 91L


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 91L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 91L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 91L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Gaston Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Gaston


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gaston (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gaston (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Gaston

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Gaston
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gaston -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


> Bahamas Media

Television & Radio:

ZNS Bahamas, Radio & TV

More 94 FM Bahamas


Newspapers:

Bahamas Tribune

Nassau Guardian

Bahamas B2B

Freeport News

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

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Gaston Forms, Fiona Fading, 99L Worth Watching

Posted: 04:54 PM 22 August 2016 | 18 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 08:08 PM 24-Aug EDT

10:00PM EDT Update 24 August 2016

Convection appears to be firing around the dominant center of 99L, with the other center over Hispaniola. Still this will likely keep the system weak over the next day or two. Still must be monitored, primarily for any last minute strengthening over the Bahamas. Still too soon to tell what areas this system will impact and how much.



7:00PM EDT Update 24 August 2016

Above: Tremendously decoupled Invest 99L 8-24-16 2045z

7:00PM EDT Update 24 August 2016
99L is a tremendously decoupled system today, with, once again, two main Low Level Circulation centers, and one Mid Level Circulation that is barely holding on.

Overnight, it is possible that 99L was a bona fide Tropical Cyclone up until shortly before Recon went in, and unsurprisingly then went on to find an abundance of solid Tropical Storm force winds to the east and northeast of the primary LLC that has raced out ahead of the mid-level circ, the result of moderate to high levels of shear, and some dry air.

With the disturbance this discombobulated, with shear persisting, and now with also traversing some very rough island terrain, reconstitution will be challenging, and may not occur any time soon. However, there is a chance that the higher terrain helps to create so much lift that it sort of works to 99L's advantage. So many questions and variables with this one, and anyone who says they know just what 99L is going to become or where it is going, is not being candid. This is an incredibly challenging situation for forecasters. Best to stay tuned, and prepared.

-Ciel


10:30AM EDT Update 24 August 2016
99L is likely to move north of Puerto Rico today, with the dirty side (convection) passing over the island. Development chances in the near term are still 60%, but with the decoupled rough center and convection it is looking less likely that it'll be today, although things are moving toward development a bit later.



Still a lot of uncertainty and worth watching in the Bahamas and Florida.

3:30AM EDT Update 24 August 2016


After competing with itself for the better part of the past 48 hours, based on recent radar, buoy, ship and satellite data, Invest 99L is very nearly classifiable now, with an incipient center as of this update located close to Montserrat in the far eastern Caribbean. This suggests that the northernmost vorticity has become dominant, and interests in the northeastern to central Caribbean, up to the Bahamas and southeastern US should now be paying very close attention to this system, and heeding any forthcoming official watches and warnings, as issued.

-Ciel

3PM EDT Update 23 August 2016
99L has a 60% chance to develop over the next few days. Recon did not find an organized low level circulation, but the area was in better shape for development than previously thought.

Forecast models are mixed on the fate of this system, but the majority all generally move it toward Florida. Some like the Euro forecast development and others such as the GFS and HWRF do not (just a rain storm). Based on the Euro it could impact Florida as soon as this Sunday. (moved up from Monday)

Those in the E. Caribbean, Bahamas and Florida need to keep a close watch on the future of this system.

5AM EDT Update 23 August 2016
TD 7 has become Tropical Storm Gaston, with maximum winds estimated at a possibly conservative 50MPH. Gaston is forecast to become a formidable hurricane, and stay out to sea. Fiona is barley hanging on as a tropical cyclone, and forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Thursday. However, what interests us here the most is Invest 99L.

99L, by all accounts, has been outperforming the weaker model runs, and appears more in sync with those that develop it. Over the course of the next few days, interests in the far eastern Caribbean will likely experience tropical depression or tropical storm-like weather, whether or not it has become a tropical cyclone. Beyond that, we have been discussing some rather eye-popping runs in the 99L Lounge , if you have the stomach.

We're now in the climatological peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic, and after several anomalously lucky years, it's prudent to conclude that the US will be hit by a serious hurricane sooner than later. "Word to the wise."

-Ciel



Carib Radar Mosaic recording of 99L approach
Floater recording of 99L

Original Entry
Tropical Depression Seven has formed from 90L in the east Atlantic, it is expected to become a hurricane, but remain far away from Land.

Over the next few days all attention will likely be on 99L as several models show it impacting Florida early next week. It has a low chance to develop in the near term, but goes up higher late in the week, when it may arrive at the Bahamas. Check the Forecast Lounge on it for speculation and model discussion.

Recon is scheduled to begin sampling 99L tomorrow which should help model runs later in the week. In the short term the Leeward islands needs to watch for some rain coming this Wednesday.

Fiona continues to weaken but may move more westward, it is possible the remains of Fiona could re-surge later, so even after it dissipates it may need to be watched.

More to come soon.

99L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L


stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 99L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Gaston Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Gaston


stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gaston (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gaston (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Gaston

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Gaston
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gaston -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


> Bahamas Media

Television & Radio:

ZNS Bahamas, Radio & TV

More 94 FM Bahamas


Newspapers:

Bahamas Tribune

Nassau Guardian

Bahamas B2B

Freeport News

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

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Peak Hurricane Season Approaching - Watching Fiona and Multiple Waves

Posted: 10:39 AM 15 August 2016 | | Add Comment



5AM EDT Update 20 August 2016
By all accounts, the Atlantic peak season sleeping giant has awoken, and while there are many days to watch features that are still far out at sea, so many of us living near or along coastlines in the continental US that have been spared serious impacts for even up to many years now may want to pay close attention through the remainder of this month.

The quick rundown this predawn Saturday morning:

Fiona is hanging in there, but struggling with regional dry, stable air and shear, and as such, continues taking a progressively more leftward track, which means interests a little further west may want to keep watch as fish spinning is no longer a pretty sure bet.

INVEST 99L is starting to coalesce showers and a few thunderstorms about a center, and gaining a little latitude. 99L arguably has a good chance of becoming a Tropical Depression this weekend, and those living in or visiting the eastern Caribbean may want to start making their tropical cyclone precautions.

Vigorous and Large Tropical Wave set to enter the far eastern Atlantic today may emerge over open water relatively quickly becoming a TD.

-Ciel

5AM EDT Update 18 August 2016
The first system of the peak time formed yesterday, but is a storm that is facing some pretty tough conditions ahead and is already moving northward, so the good news it is unlikely to affect anyone and stay far away from land areas. Another wave off the coast of Africa may be worth watching next week, but as of now, the appears to be no threats to land areas in the next week.

See more speculation about the next several weeks in the Forecast Lounge


Original Update
The historical Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season starts typically around mid August and peaks around September 15th, and tapirs off toward the end of October. This is the period that typically has seen the majority of the "well-remembered" storms such as Charley, Francis, Ivan, Jeanne, Katrina, Sandy, Andrew, Hugo, and more. This year the Atlantic is more likely to see activity than in past years since generally the shearing conditions that dominated last year don't exist to the degree this year.

Also water temperatures are above average over most of the basin (last year they were not). This has more of an impact for any storms developing closer to land, as things could ramp up much more quickly than without. It fueled a lot of the rain that slammed Louisiana recently, even though the low level circulation did not form over water (thankfully).

General stability is high in most of the tropics, so this is an aspect against development. The western basin, is more favorable than the east, however. This would indicate waves generally struggling to get going in the east Atlantic and coming together in the west Atlantic/Caribbean. Which we saw with Earl.

We have 98L in the east Atlantic which will have a tough time developing, but ultimately probably will, most long range model runs keep it out to sea. Models are hinting at other systems coming in the next few weeks, so it could be a busy late August / Early September. See the forecast lounge for more speculation in the long range.

Fiona Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Fiona


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Fiona (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Fiona (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Fiona

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Fiona
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Fiona -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


99L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L


stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 99L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


90L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 90L


stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 90L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 90L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 90L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 90L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 90L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Latest Meteorologist Blog - See More Blogs...
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Ed Dunham

Regarding Invest 99L

Posted: 12:24 PM 25 August 2016
It is beginning to look like the GFS may have had the best handle on this system from the start. It was easy to toss it out because early on it looked like an outlier solution, but if a model has demonstrated prior reliability it always should be examined as the potential solution. One of the most important factors in tropical cyclone forecasting (and the one that is most often overlooked) is 'patience'.

99L is certainly a system that requires a 'lot of patience' with regard to its future evolution, if any. At 25/15Z, 99L was located near 21.4N 71.6W with winds probably more realistically at 30 knots gusting to 40 knots and a central pressure of about 1009MB. Movement is to the west northwest in the low level flow at about 12 knots. The low is open to the southwest and it at the moment it has no convective support.

SSTs are at 29.5C and windshear is light westerly so conditions are favorable for some eventual development - more so since the system now has just one circulation rather than the earlier disorganized structure of three. Movement should continue to the west northwest heading toward the Florida Straits and South Florida Sunday morning as a Tropical Depression or minimal Tropical Storm - then turning northwest into the Gulf of Mexico while gaining strength on a path toward the north - central Gulf coast.

Blustery winds and heavy rain squalls seem likely for South Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend. Rain squalls also likely for western Cuba and, if the system develops quickly on Saturday, those squalls will extend into the northern Bahamas and the southern half of the Florida Peninsula. The next name on the list this season is Hermine (her-MEEN).
ED

(I guess that I spoke too soon - there are still two low-level swirls at 23Z that are merging over Great Inagua Island.)
30.8N 55.1W
Wind: 115MPH
Pres: 962mb
Moving:
Nw at 5 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
31.8N 70.9W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1010mb
Moving:
W at 9 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
23.7N 81.7W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1009mb
Moving:
W at 9 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
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