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Atlantic is quiet now. A potential big upswing during August being monitored. #flhurricane.com
# of days since last Hurricane Landfall - US: Any 289 (Matthew) , Major: 4291 (11 y 9 m) (Wilma) Florida - Any: 325 (Hermine) Major: 4291 (11 y 9 m) (Wilma)
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Tropical Atlantic is Busy Again With Tropical Storm Don

Posted: 01:42 PM 17 July 2017 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 05:20 PM 17-Jul EDT

12:00 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Update
This morning's reconnaissance flight found Don succumbing to increasing shear and the abundance of nearby dry air, and in fact, the official NHC forecast now calls for a continued weakening trend, with outright dissipation in just 36 hours. However, to remind our readers, Don is a small cyclone, susceptible to changes in intensity, and as such, it is possible that Don takes advantage of a more favorable window that could open up tonight, and strengthen some about the time it crosses the southernmost Lesser Antilles.

Elsewhere, Invest 96L is struggling even more so with dry air, and remains out at sea.

-Ciel

5:00 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Update
Recon has found that Invest 95L has become Tropical Storm Don, the fifth tropical cyclone and fourth named storm of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
-Ciel


Original Entry:



The advertised DNA of 2017 favors development of named cyclones in the Main Development Region (A 'box' generally thought of as south of 20°N, and from 70°W to 20°W). We are now watching not one but two new disturbances in this region: Invests 95L and another, TBD.

As of 1:00PM EDT Monday July 17, recon is approaching Invest 95L, which has been looking more organized than yesterday, despite the appearance of struggling with some nearby dry air, as well as what is probably the diurnal convective minimum. Recon will be looking to see if 95L has developed a well-defined surface circulation and sufficient convective structure to be classified as a tropical cyclone.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should consider watching these. Of note, Invest 95L is a bit of a smaller incipient tropical cyclone, and as such, could intensify faster than a larger system would. Model tracking of 95L (with its moniker updated if and as necessary), is also available in the 95L Forecast Lounge .


Tropical Storm Don Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Don


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Don (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Don (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Don

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Don
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Don -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Invest 96L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 96


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 96 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 96 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 96

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 96
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 96 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


E. Carib Radar Recording

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

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July in the Tropics

Posted: 08:25 AM 01 July 2017 | 2 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 10:42 PM 16-Jul EDT

2:00 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Update
The Atlantic now has two disturbances being highlighted in the NHC Tropical Weather Update. While not stated explicitly, it is possible that Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories may be issued later today on Invest 95L, and persons with interests in the Lesser Antilles may want to begin preparing for the possibility of heavy weather.
-Ciel



1:00 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Update

The area of low pressure that is roughly 950 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is now being tracked as Invest 95L. This disturbance has become slightly more organized today, and conditions appear favorable for continued slow development, and a tropical cyclone could form prior to the Low reaching the Lesser Antilles. Recon has been tentatively tasked to fly into this disturbance tomorrow, if necessary.
-Ciel

11:00 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 Update

A trough of low pressure in the central Atlantic is being monitored for signs of organization. Conditions for TC genesis are only marginally favorable, but some slow development is possible while the area of disturbed weather tracks west, and conditions could become a little more favorable next week.

Elsewhere, the residual moisture and troffiness of former TD4 are now entering the northwesternmost portions of the Gulf of Mexico, adding to showers and thunderstorms in Louisiana and Texas. Redevelopment odds are close to zero.
-Ciel

9:30PM EDT 2 July 2017 Update

The wave in the far east Atlantic is now being tracked as Invest 94L, there's a lot of time to watch this one as it won't near the Caribbean until next weekend, and if it comes closer won't be near here until 10-15 days away. Right now it's too soon to tell.


Original Update

After a busy mid June, the end of June was very quiet in the Atlantic basin, the first few days of July are also quiet, but there are signs that may change later in the coming week.

July typically is a transition month, many times after early activity July winds up being fairly quiet. We start looking a bit further east for development, especially toward August, but a few things still tend to pop up from time to time.

There is a currently low chance wave in the far Eastern Atlantic that may develop mid next week, right now only a 20% chance. The setup for this area is such that even if it does develop, it may not directly affect any land areas. But it is something to watch. Speculation and model discussion can be found in the Forecast Lounge for the system.

Beyond that, typical areas to watch during July are the Gulf, western Caribbean, and along the Bahamas/East coast. None of which have anything in the shot term.


Invest 95L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 95


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 95 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 95 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 95

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 95
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Tropical Depression Four Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#4


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#4 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#4 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#4

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#4
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#4 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

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Tropical Storm Cindy Forms in Gulf of Mexico

Posted: 01:34 PM 20 June 2017 | 3 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 06:54 PM 23-Jun EDT

7 AM Update EDT 22 June 2017
Cindy makes landfall near the Texas and Louisiana border, now moving inland.

Cindy started to develop convection along the northwestern side and it managed to wrap around just as it was making landfall. Shear had let up, but dry air intrusion from the south kept it weak. Rainfall was the biggest story along with numerous small tornadoes and waterspouts.

Rain will continue well inland, however the dry air intrusion made some fairly large pockets where places did not see as much rain, but others such as Alabama and the Panhandle wound up with much more time under rain than areas closer to the center, with the exception of right around the center once it neared land.

The most tragic accident related to Cindy was a 10 year old Missouri boy who died when a log picked up by the heavy surf ran into him in the water and hit him in Fort Morgan, AL while there for a family reunion.

Original Update
The area being tracked as 93L and Potential Cyclone Three is now, based on recon reports, Tropical Storm Cindy.

Cindy is mostly a flooding rainfall event for areas east of the storm center (As far east as the Florida Panhandle), but may also include coastal rainfall and short-lived tornadoes.

Cindy's Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for High Island (Just north of Houston/Galveston) to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... West of High Island to San Luis Pass along the mid-Texas coastline.

Tropical Storm Bret continues to move through the southern Caribbean,

For Bret, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Venezuela Isla de Margarita and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the islands of Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba.

more to come soon...

Event Links

Biloxi Lightgouse camera Live Stream:

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<a href="http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?252" target="_blank">Flhurricane Recording of Biloxi Lighthouse Cam</a>

Mark Sudduth/Hurricanetrack Video Stream for the system, he's heading toward the Gulf coast
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See mark's position on a map <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJEMML0QJF0" target="_blank">here</a>.

Cindy Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Cindy


stormplotthumb_3.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Cindy (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Cindy (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Cindy

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Cindy
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Cindy -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Louisiana Coastal Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Lake Charles, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA -

Bret) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Bret


stormplotthumb_2.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Bret (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Bret (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Bret

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Bret
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Bret -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

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Tropical Storm Warnings For Louisiana & Windward Islands (THREE & Bret)

Posted: 01:53 AM 15 June 2017 | 10 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 12:00 PM 20-Jun EDT

19 June 5:00PM EDT Update
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF THE LOUISIANA COAST...

Invest 93L is expected to become a named storm and affect much of the northern Gulf coast this week. 93L is now being tracked as Potential Tropical Cyclone THREE, and NHC advisories have begun

- Ciel

18 June 8:00PM EDT Update

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...

In the interest of public safety, NHC now has the option of issuing advisories on systems that are likely to develop, but may do so in such a way that to wait to start advisories on the 'Potential Tropical Cyclone' to verify (form), residents, emergency managers, entire governments, etc., would not be able to prepare in a timely manner. Such is the case with Invest 92L this afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the southern Lesser Antilles whether or not 92L even becomes a bona fide tropical cyclone (although it is).

From NHC
Quote:

The disturbance over the deep tropical Atlantic has become better organized today, although a pair of ASCAT-A and B passes this morning indicated that the system does not have a closed low-level circulation, which isn't surprising given the fast translational speed of the system. The ASCAT passes showed peak winds of near 30 kt well north of the center, and given that the environment is expected to be conducive for some additional development before the shear increases in the eastern Caribbean Sea, strengthening is forecast, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching the Windward Islands in 36 to 48 hours.

The National Hurricane Center now has the option to issue advisories on disturbances that are not yet tropical cyclones, but which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. Under previous policy this was not possible. These systems are known as Potential Tropical Cyclones in
advisory products and are numbered from the same list as depressions. Because of the threat to the Windward Islands, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two and the appropriate warnings have been issued by the respective governments in the Windward Islands. Advisory packages will continue until the threat of tropical-storm-force winds for land areas sufficiently diminishes, although if the system becomes a tropical cyclone, the normal rules for discontinuing advisories would apply. Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours.



-Ciel


18 June 3:30PM EDT Update
For 93L, Aircraft Recon Cancelled for lack of a defined center. Trough extends from "Best track" on graphic toward the tip of Cuba. System could develop anywhere along there. mid level likely won't move down. Western and North Central Gulf coasts (toward the Panhandle) need to keep watch on this system, things could change once it makes it into the Gulf of Mexico.




The strength of the storm may not be as important as the rainfall, all the tropical moisture streaming in to the Gulf states on the system could cause a rainfall threat.

18 June 7AM EDT Update

93L is looking better organized this morning, and the models are slowly converging on an area between TX and the Florida Panhandle, with potential impacts as soon as Tuesday night those along these ares should monitor it closely. Expect a typical June sloppy system, but it is possible this could develop somewhat rapidly once in the Gulf, so it is very important to monitor it.

Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to check the area out today.



92L East of the islands is likely to have an impact on the southern leewards, but chances for development are down, at the very least it will bring a fair amount of rainfall for the islands, beyond that it is expected to be sheared apart in the east Caribbean.

If two storms become active in June at the same time, it will be the first time that has happened since 1968.

16 June 9PM EDT Update

The system in the Central Atlantic is now being tracked as Invest 92L. This system has a 60% chance for development over the next 5 days, and is heading generally westward toward the Southern Leeward islands. Based on model runs it would be near there on Tuesday.



The area in the Western Caribbean looks better this evening, but is still not an invest. Models diverge between a western Gulf of Mexico or Eastern Gulf of Mexico scenario, with the western one being slightly more probable. Still too soon to tell what happens with this system, it will likely cover a large area and bring a lot of moisture to wherever it goes. If it affects the Eastern gulf it would be Tuesday/Wed, if it moves west toward Mexico it would be mid to late next week. Check back over the weekend for any changes.

Original Update
NHC has recently upgraded the probability of Tropical Cyclone formation in the North Western Caribbean and Yucatan Peninsula Area to 50% over the next 5 days.

This is an area to watch on the next few days and over the weekend. Nothing too concerning right now other than another round of enhanced rains for Florida and possibly other parts of the Gulf, but there is enough of a chance that something may develop out of it to keep an eye on.

It's important to note that odds favor a disorganized rain maker, but based on models it could form to be a strong tropical storm in the Gulf on Monday or so, thus it's worth keeping a close eye on.

<a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5" target="_blank">Latest 5 day Outlook from the National Hurricane Center</a>

<a href="http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html" target="_blank">CIMSS North Atlantic Water Vapor Loop</a>

More information will come later, nothing has been tagged as an invest yet. Lounge discussion can be found <a href="http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Number=97643&gonew=1#UNREAD" target="_blank">Here</a> for this system.

Biloxi Lightgouse camera Live Stream:

mqdefault_live.jpg
<a href="http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?252" target="_blank">Flhurricane Recording of Biloxi Lighthouse Cam</a>

Mark Sudduth/Hurricanetrack Video Stream for the system
mqdefault_live.jpg
See mark's position on a map here.

Potential 3 (Was 93L/Gulf) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Potential 3


stormplotthumb_3.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Potential 3 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Potential 3 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Potential 3

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Potential 3
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Potential 3 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Bret) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Bret


stormplotthumb_2.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Bret (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Bret (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Bret

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Bret
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Bret -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Louisiana Coastal Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Lake Charles, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA -

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The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts Now

Posted: 12:00 AM 01 June 2017 | 4 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 09:55 PM 01-Jun EDT

Today is the first day of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane season. The season runs from Today (June 1st) until November 30th. Although storms can form anytime during the season (and very rarely outside the season) most storms tend to form in August, September, and October.

The 2016 Hurricane season brought Florida its first landfalling hurricane in 11 years, Hermine, which affected the Panhandle and west coasts of Florida.

Hurricane Matthew caused the most damage last year, affecting Cuba/Haiti, the Bahamas, and Florida from about the Cape northward, particularly with surge along from Flagler Beach northward into North Carolina and flooding rains in North Carolina.

Otto was notable for crossing intact into the Eastern Pacific after breaking records and hammering Central America on thanksgiving day.

Only Otto and Matthew’s names were retired last year, to be replaced with Martin and Owen for the 2022 season.

In June storm formation is not the norm, but when they do, usually storms will form in the Western Caribbean or in the Gulf, and tend not to be on the high end. We have had one named storm form already this year, Arlene, which made it to a 50MPH Tropical Storm in the central Atlantic, but affected no land directly.

We'll be watching here, as we expect a slightly higher than average season this year. This is the 22nd year that this site has been running, and we hope continue. Our long time meteorologist, Ed Dunham sadly passed away on May 14th of this year. So we are missing a great source of storm wisdom, but we will continue to use his level-headed hype resistant style to guide the site. As always, use mutliple sources for hurricane information, don't take our word for it, the National Hurricane Center should be top of that list. The links on the bottom of the page and our links page are just the start of a multitude of good to great sources for information beyond here.

As we open, there isn't much to write home about regarding activity. Although there’s a chance for a named storm before July, but odds favor it not happening.

That doesn't mean there is nothing to watch for the start of the season, The global models (WCMWF and GFS) show a low possibly forming in the western Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

The East Pacific hurricane basin is tracking TD#2, however.

We'll keep an eye out in the Atlantic.

The names for this year are:

2017: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irma, Jose, Katia, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince, Whitney (List III)

Sales Tax Holiday in Florida
This year Florida has a Hurricane Supply Sales Tax Holiday running June 2-4, 2017

This Includes reusable ice packs $10 or less.

$20 or less flashlights, lanters, cancles.

$25 or less: Any gas or diesel fuel container, including LP gas and kerosene containers

$30 or less: Batteries, including rechargeable batteries, excluding automobile and boat
Coolers and ice chests (food-storage; nonelectrical)

$50 or less: tarps, Visqueen, plastic sheeting, plastic drop cloths, and other flexible waterproof sheeting
Ground anchor systems, Tie-down kits, Bungee cords, Ratchet straps, Radios (powered by battery, solar, or hand-crank)
Two-way, Weather band

and Portable Generators Selling for $750 or less.

Facebook Update Posted
06:48 pm 20-Jul-2017 EDT

Remnant #96L pulsing today. We'll keep watch. Looking to next month - a possible big uptick in the Atlantic. Explained: #flhurricane.com

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