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Watching 98L in the Gulf as Cristobal continues out to sea.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 54 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3229 (8 y 10 m) (Wilma)
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Cristobal Forms and Heading Out to Sea

Posted: 08:24 AM 24 August 2014 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 01:07 PM 25-Aug EDT

The mess that was 96L and TD#4 finally has consolidated enough to become a Tropical Storm, and appears to have done so far enough to the north and east to now be forecast to miss much of the Bahamas and the US entirety. The period of uncertainty that existed in the undeveloped system is now mostly over. Avoiding a troublesome lead-up toward Labor day Weekend.

Cristobal likely will meander around and just north of where it is for the next few days before moving on out over the ocean, it may become a Hurricane over the open waters Wednesday or Thursday.

Beyond Cristobal there may be something to watch a week from now, but nothing currently being watched.

Texas Gulf Coast Links Texas/South Plains Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Corpus Christi, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Brownsville, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Houston/Galveston, TX - Corpus Christi, TX - Browsnville/South Padre Island, TX

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Cristobal Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Cristobal


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Cristobal (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Cristobal (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Cristobal

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Cristobal
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Cristobal -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


98L (Gulf) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 98L


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 98L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

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Tropical Depression Four Forms near Turks and Caicos

Posted: 07:17 AM 23 August 2014 | 7 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 07:20 PM 23-Aug EDT

9:30 PM EDT 23 August 2014 Update

Recon managed to find enough of a circulation to classify the low area as a depression with 35MPH winds.

And thusly also setting up the stage for Tropical Storm Warnings for the Southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos.

The official forecast tkaes it similar to the Euro and GFS runs along the Bahamas and then out to sea, with a large error possible. The typical official track cone size does not increase based on uncertainty, it's always the average error for all storms as of late. So there is still a possibility for the track to change, as the NHC has mentioned it being a low confidence forecast.

The 3 to 5 day forecast is based on model consensus that had quite a significant variation so expect continual track adjustments over the next few days as the cyclone slows down into 'drift' mode caused by weak steering currents. This slow drift is forecast for some of tomorrow and all of Monday.

However, everything as it stands currently odds really do favor the official track, so I can't think of a reason to not take it right now, except that it depends on how the actual storm progresses.

10:45 AM EDT 23 August 2014 Update
Recon did not find a closed circulation center, and with land interaction with Hispaniola, 96L is not likely to form today. Tomorrow is much more likely. Many models have shifted west this morning and are still split between a Florida landfall and out to sea (with varying intensity). So it remains important to keep watch through the weekend.

Based on the current trends, if it were to impact Florida, it would be during the day Wednesday.


Original Update
The wave near Hispaniola this morning continues to be somewhat disrupted by the island. The model paths have a wide spread, and overall conditions are hard to judge, as is the exact center location of the wave or wave axis.

Odds favor it remaining weak and out to sea, but have been trending westward over the last few runs and some of the fairly reliable models (GFS, HRWF) have suggested a Florida landfall, so confidence is low. Based on those, If the system were to make it toward Florida, it would likely be here during the day on Wednesday.

Recon is approaching the storm this morning.



For the future, several more reliable models keep it out to sea (euro, for example). So therefore until an actually storm develops, it is hard to say. Please pay attention to any advisories that the National Hurricane Center puts out, and pay attention to local media if something were to occur. Intensity is also an unknown factor (a relatively weak or strong storm).

If named, the storm would be called Cristobal, this is likely later today or tomorrow. Tomorrow is the better bet..

Keep close watch over the weekend. More speculation can be found in the forecast lounge.

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Cristobal Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Cristobal


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Cristobal (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Cristobal (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Cristobal

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Cristobal
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Cristobal -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

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Wave Still Disorganized (96L)

Posted: 07:32 PM 19 August 2014 | 8 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 01:03 AM 23-Aug EDT

7:00 AM EDT 22 August 2014 Update
The inability for the wave to consolidate yesterday pushes it into another realm of uncertainty today, as the very broad system may be trying to recenter under or just east of Puerto Rico. Model runs have generally been out to sea overnight, but with a center position assumed to be barely just northeast of the Caribbean.

With still no solid development, the center relocation idea is one to watch for this morning as it would likely invalidate most of the model runs, although the GFS may have hinted at this. This is one of several reasons why models are only perhaps good in the short term for systems that have not yet developed. Especially in cases where a dominant center cannot be maintained.


Image note: the arrow for new center is off by a bit, should be more northeast, and the center on radar is north of the island, so it's more like a wave axis south to north currently.

Recon does fly again today. to help clear things up a bit.

So in short, keep watch on this area today, it's up to 60/80% development chances. It may just remain weak its entire existence, especially if it can't manage to consolidate. Continue to watch it today, things can change from hour to hour.

Even with the center relocation, odds favor it staying east of the US currently, but that is still uncertain.


7:45 AM EDT 21 August 2014 Update
The wave east of the Caribbean is at a 50% chance for development in the next 48 hours, and based on what the recon flight later today shows, it may or may not be upgraded today. This morning it looks a bit rough, so development may hold off for another day or two.

The system has moved a bit north in latitude and a lot of attention to model runs recently has ramped up some hype. The Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will need to watch for some development, if it develops, for tropical storm type weather.

Beyond that is pure speculation, long range model runs have had very high rates of error for this system so far (based on the standard deviations) And until the system is well established using them is not a good idea, except to watch for trends. And right now the trends have swung wildly, and probably will for another day or two.

Also what, if any, interaction with the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, is a factor.



The biggest drivers of the future position of this system are the trough in the western Atlantic and the high at the time it closes by, the global models are struggling with this right now, so I'd avoid reading into them too much.

Those in the Bahamas and Southeast should watch through the weekend to see what happens on this. The trend directions, as of this morning, keep it offshore, but those trends are still with a very low confidence. See the forecast lounge for more discussion and speculation.

Original Update
A tropical wave east of the Caribbean, although likely not to develop in the short term, has a moderate chance later in the week. 30% in the next 48 hours, and 50% over the next 5 days.

The dry air conditions are likely to put a damper on it, but being later in August those in the Caribbean will want to watch it. Long range models do put it as a potential threat to the northern Caribbean islands, including Cuba, and it possibly could enter the Gulf of Mexico. See the forecast lounge for more discussion on the longer range.

Despite that, it still has to develop around the dry air, which may let up Thursday or Friday somewhat, and enter into more favorable conditions.

More to come later, if necessary.

Another wave east of 96L also has a 20% chance for development over the next 5 days, but it is not being tracked as an invest currently. Model runs will be unreliable until a few runs after it develops, so don't read into long range forecasts this early.

If named, the storm would be called Cristobal.

French Antilles Radar recording of 96L approach

Barbados Radar recording of 96L approach

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Invest 96L (East of Caribbean Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 96L


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 96L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 96L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 96L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 96L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 96L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

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Watching a wave (94L) In the East Atlantic

Posted: 04:43 PM 10 August 2014 | | Add Comment

Another wave with a 40% chance for development over the next 5 days is being watched in the east Atlantic. This wave, tracked as 94L, has quite a bit of dry air and poor conditions to traverse before entering more favorable areas. Most of the Atlantic east of the Caribbean is currently awash in generally dry conditions.

However it is approaching the start of the peak season, in mid August that runs through mid October. So it is important to watch this and any other tropical disturbances that may develop.


Invest 94L (East Atlantic Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


More to come later.

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Atlantic Quiet. Hurricane Warnings up for the Big Island of Hawaii

Posted: 09:28 PM 06 August 2014 | 2 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 09:28 AM 08-Aug EDT

Bertha has transitioned to a post tropical storm, and the center is remaining away from land areas, leaving the Atlantic Quiet.

However, Hawaii has an approaching Hurricane, Iselle, and another hurricane, Julio behind that.

Hurricane Warnings are up for the Big Island of Hawaii, and a Tropical Storm warning is up for Maui.

The last hurricane warning issued for any island in Hawaii was in 1992, with Iniki.



CPHC Info and Advisories on Iselle



Iselle, through recon reports, has been stronger than anticipated at this time, which warranted the Hurricane Warning for the big Island. The actual track of the storm is slightly north of the forecast track in the above image, which would likely mean more impact for the Big Island and Maui than currently indicated.

Typically flhurricane does not cover storms outside the Atlantic, but exceptions are made for Hawaii. The available resources are much less, however.

Iselle Floater Satellite images

Juan Floater Satellite images

Webcams Big Island, Hawaii
Sheraton Kona Resort & Spa at Keauhou Bay Cam
Kailua Bay webcam
Hilo Bay Webcam
Hilton Waikoloa Village Lagoon Tower Cam
Hilton Waikoloa Village Lagoon Tower Cam
Hilton Waikoloa Village Ocean Tower Cam

List of Maui Webcams


Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Hawaiian Media:

TV:

KITV 4 - Honolulu (ABC)

KHON 2 - Honolulu (Fox)

Hawaii News Now KGMB 9 (CBS)/KHNL 13 (NBC)

Newspaper:

Hawaii 24/7 (Big Island Newspaper)

Hawaii Tribune-Herald

Maui News

Honolulu Star Advertiser



NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunters have made an extended trip out to Diamonhead in Hawaii to run missions to the storm.


Latest Meteorologist Blog - See More Blogs...
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Ed Dunham

Hurricane Arthur

Posted: 05:50 PM 03 July 2014
Kudos to The Weather Channel for deviating from the 'official' forecast earlier this afternoon. At 5PM EDT on July 3rd, NHC made an adjustment westward with the forecast track for Hurricane Arthur - and the actual track is probably going to be slightly west of that.

An upper level low located near 39N 58W at 03/21Z continues to retrograde westward. High pressure is centered south of the Great Lakes behind a cool front moving eastward through the Appalachian Range. Hurricane Arthur continues to maintain more of a north northeast movement and I would anticipate a track adjustment on a course a little more to the west with Arthur moving over eastern North Carolina just to the west of the Outer Banks as a Cat II Hurricane Thursday night into the early hours of Friday morning. As the front approaches the east coast, Arthur will be nudged into more of a northeast movement with the center passing just to the southeast of Cape Cod around midnight Friday night as a minimal Cat I hurricane undergoing extratropical transition.

Hurricane conditions likely over eastern North Carolina within 25 miles of the center track in the southwest and northwest quadrants and within 75 miles of the track in the northeast and southeast quadrants. Any hurricane preparations by those who are in or near the path of the hurricane should have already been completed. A fully transitioned strong Extratropical storm should pass over Nova Scotia on Saturday and over Newfoundland on Sunday.
ED
33.3N 70.7W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 984mb
Moving:
Ne at 17 mph
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