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4 active storms in the Atlantic. Fiona, Gaston, TD#9, TD#10. Florida in the cone for 9. Ian/Hermine are the next two names.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 6 (Fiona) , Major: 391 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1445 (Michael) Major: 1445 (Michael)
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Dangerous September Underway

Posted: 04:37 AM 23 September 2022 | 2 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 07:12 PM 23-Sep EDT

5PM EDT Update 24 September 2022 Update
Ian's poised to intensify tomorrow, but remains a 45mph storm today. The center may be reforming, northwest of the current position. The future track is highly uncertain beyond 3 days with models even more spread out than earlier. Anyone in the cone should prepare for the system, but hopefully we'll know more once it gets closer to Caymans, probably Monday morning.

"The track forecast is still highly uncertain at days 4-5, with the GFS and ECMWF positions
about 200 n mi apart by 96 h. There is significant spread noted even among the GFS ensemble members, with positions that range from the north-central Gulf of Mexico to the west coast of Florida. Hopefully, data collected from special radiosonde releases and a
NOAA G-IV flight this evening will help better resolve the steering flow around Ian and the deep-layer trough that is forecast to be over the eastern U.S. early next week."

Gaston is still continuing on, but Hermine has weakened to a depression.

9AM EDT Update 24 September 2022 Update
Tropical Storm Ian is going through bit of a reformation process, this morning, slightly further south. But the track is generally correct. Conditions for Ian improve greatly tomorrow beyond Jamaica, so it will likely intensify at that point. The forecast track cone is important in this one since slight variations could change the track either direction, so more so than usual don't focus on the track line in the middle. Surge impacts along the coast also depend greatly which direction and side the storm crosses since the water is generally driven by the wind direction. If landfall were south of Tampa, for instance, water would be driven out of the bay and surge flooding wouldn't be bad there, but worse for those south/right of the eye. If the storm went directly over or just to the north, surge flooding would be worse in the bay. The cone range is from the Keys to Apalachicola right now. Track shifts are likely

The further north the system would get the more it runs into shear associated with a front, so if it were to get in the northern parts of the Gulf, it would likely weaken before landfall.

Any watches for Florida likely wouldn't show up until tomorrow night or Monday morning.

Fiona made landfall as an extra tropical storm in Canada overnight, much of the wind trailed the rain shield. But there are reports of damage in eastern Nova Scotia.

Gaston is expected to become extra tropical today.

Hermine is bringing rain to the Canary Islands and likely will hang around for another few days.

11PM EDT Update 23 September 2022 Update
Tropical Storm Ian has formed from TD#9, and Tropical Storm Watches are up for Jamaica, and Hurricane Watches are up for the Cayman Islands.

Beyond this Cuba and the West Coast of Florida are in the cone. Florida Landfall, based on this track, would be a category 3 hurricane Overnight Tuesday to Wednesday morning along the coast Between Fort Myers and Sarasota, however, anywhere in the Cone should make preparations this weekend.

Fiona has become a very power extratropical System and is moving over Nova Scotia tonight.

Gaston is over the Western Azores, bringing low end tropical storm force winds.

Hermine is off the coast of Africa and expected to hang around just a few days before dissipating.
Original Update



After the stunningly quiet August, multiple storms are now impacting and threatening land. Major Hurricane Fiona is presently lashing Bermuda and potentially set to become a record-setting hybrid cyclone in coastal Canada this weekend. Tropical Storm conditions are affecting the Azores with Gaston. And in the southern Caribbean, the stout wave we have been tracking (tagged 98L) has become the ninth real-time officiated tropical cyclone of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and this is one Floridians in particular are watching.

After inconsistent development and track trends, TD 9 has formed in a region that given all known knowns and known unknowns, is more likely than not to become a very significant tropical cyclone and one that could ultimately impact Florida in a very serious way. This far out, speculation belongs in model-talk, and we do have have lounges up for both Fiona and TD9, where modelling is often discussed in greater detail: Fiona Forecast Lounge TD9 Forecast Lounge , but it is already looking more likely than not that NINE will threaten the US Southeast, and very possibly Florida.

Elsewhere, Invest 90L is odds-on to become a tropical cyclone that impacts the Cabo Verde Islands by the end of this week, and 99L west of there has model support for development too, but that one may stay a fish storm.



Fiona Event Related Links


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[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=7 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Fiona
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Gaston Event Related Links


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[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=8 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Gaston
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Ian Event Related Links


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[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=9 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Ian
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Hermine Event Related Links


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[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=10 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Hermine
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Invest 99L Event Related Links


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[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=11 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 99L
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Fiona, Gaston and 98L. Atlantic Switched On.

Posted: 12:36 PM 20 September 2022 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 12:36 PM 22-Sep EDT

11:45PM EDT 21 September 2022 Update

Image cr: Wikipedia

It can not be overstated just how much of a 180 the Atlantic basin has made, and many land-based locations are now at continued or increasing risk of serious impacts. With the addition of 99L and basically a "landphoon" rolling off westernmost Africa, there are now two active named tropical cyclones plus three almost tropical cyclones out there.

Recon has just completed a survey of the environment over the Caribbean in the immediate vicinity of Invest 98L, which is now 90% odds of becoming a numbered tropical cyclone within 5 days. The data collected by this mission will be invaluable in modeling and forecasts. There are factors that could delay organization, but probably only delay. There are other factors that could steer it away from the northern Gulf of Mexico, but at present, models are continuing to sniff out a western Caribbean to Gulf coastal states threat in the mid/long-range (Please see 98L Forecast Lounge for more on this).

The next three names on the list in the 2022 season are: Hermine, Ian and Julia.
-Ciel


8PM EDT 21 September 2022 Update
Category 4 Hurricane Fiona is starting to move faster to the North and should be near Bermuda late tomorrow night into Friday morning, and then head up to Atlantic Canada as an extratropical, but extremely powerful storm. It should landfall near the eastern end of Nova Scotia on Saturday morning.

Gaston is moving generally slowly and will get near the Azores sometime Saturday before moving back east on the forecast and becoming extratropical.

98L is likely to remain disorganized for another few days until it gets west of the ABC islands, but remains something that should be watched closely for those in the Cayman Islands, Western Cuba, Yucatan Peninsula, and Central Gulf as well as Florida into next week. There is a great deal of uncertainty after 5 days or so. Recon is out sampling the area tonight to hopefully improve the modeling on this system in the near future.

Two other areas, one has a 60% chance for development offshore of Africa, and another in the east central Atlantic with a 30% chance for development.

8AM EDT 21 September 2022 Update
The season is making up for a extended slow start. Fiona looks like it'll pass west of Bermuda enough to not cause too many problems, however Nova Scotia in Canada is going to get hit by a system turning into more of a hybrid noreaster but with the pressure and power of a category 4 hurricane.

The Turks and Caicos got hit pretty hard yesterday, particularly Grand Turk.

98L is now up to a 90% chance for development and this is the one we need to watch in Florida, particularly late next week (Thursday-Saturday) still too far out to say exactly what will happen, but all of Florida to about coastal Mississippi should monitor it closely. It has not developed yet, but likely will in 2-3 days. The Windward islands of the Caribbean will be impacted first, but mostly by rain and squalls before moving into the Caribbean. It will likely not develop until in the Caribbean sea itself.

Gaston is still moving in the north Atlantic, the Azores should monitor it. Two other areas, one off Africa has a 50% chance for development, but will likely stay away from land, and another in the Central Atlantic with a 30% chance to develop.

8PM EDT 20 September 2022 Update
Busy day in the Atlantic Tropics. Gaston has formed from 97L, but it is likely to stay out to sea, however it may get very close to the Azores. So folks in those islands should watch it closely.

Fiona is moving away from the Turks and Caicos, and likely to stay west of Bermuda, however it's increasingly likely it may reach Nova Scotia in Canada as a very powerful hurricane or storm.

98L is the system east of the Caribbean that the windward islands should watch, it is now up to a 90% chance to develop over the next 5 days. This storm should be watched by most of the Caribbean, Yucatan Peninsula, Florida and the Central Gulf coasts closely into next week.

Another area off Africa has a 40% chance to develop, those in the Cape/Cabo Verde islands should monitor that.

5PM 20 September 2022 Update
TD#8 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gaston, and already looks to be ramping up even more quickly from there.

Original Update


The Atlantic basin is on track for another serious season, even if total numbers come in below forecasts.

After producing Harvey-like catastrophic flooding in Puerto Rico and portions of the Dominican Republic, Hurricane Fiona moved back out over open water, resumed intensifying, and became 2022's first Major. Major Hurricane Fiona is now impacting the eastern Bahamas early this week, before likely whacking Bermuda with the stronger eastern semicircle (with perhaps a direct hit), and then probably move on to striking Nova Scotia as a violent hurricane-force storm, either post-tropical or not.

Invest 97L in the subtropical Atlantic became TD 8 this morning. Interests in the Azores may want to monitor this cyclone.

Our attention has quickly returned to the region just east of the Caribbean, where another stout tropical wave, 98L, now has high odds of becoming our next named storm and potential significant hurricane, and this time probably with a track that takes it further west than Fiona, with models largely already sniffing out risks from the Caribbean to the Gulf.

The next two names on the list in the Atlantic this year are Gaston and Hermine.

We have lounges up for both Fiona and 98L, where modelling is often discussed in greater detail: Fiona Forecast Lounge 98L Forecast Lounge



Fiona Event Related Links


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[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=7 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Fiona
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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Fiona (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
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Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Fiona
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Gaston Event Related Links


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[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=8 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Gaston
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Invest 98L Event Related Links


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[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=9 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 98L
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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
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Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
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NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info
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Invest 99L Event Related Links


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[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=10 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 99L
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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
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Clark Evans Track Plot of 99L

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Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
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NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Invest 90L Event Related Links


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[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=11 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 90L
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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 90L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
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Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 90L
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NRL Info on 90L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

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Tropical Storm Fiona Forms

Posted: 08:06 AM 13 September 2022 | 7 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 11:16 PM 18-Sep EDT

11:00AM EDT 20 September 2022 Update
TD#8 forms, in the Central Atlantic, will stay out to sea.

98L Up to 70% chance for development, and will need to be monitored closely.



9:00AM EDT 20 September 2022 Update
Major Hurricane Fiona is near the Turks and Caicos islands this morning and is heading up toward Bermuda, but likely staying enough west to keep hurricane conditions out, but tropical storm conditions in. Beyond that Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in Canada may have to deal with Fiona.

Beyond FIona there's an area in the Central Mid Atlantic (97L) that has an 80% chance to develop, and will likely become Gaston today or tomorrow, however this system is moving north and out and will likely not direct affect land.

Another area east of the Caribbean islands has a 50% chance to develop when it gets closer to the Caribbean, and will likely move into the Caribbean and reach closer to the western Caribbean. This one will likely keep our attention well into next week. The Windward Islands should watch this closely as well. Now being tracked as Invest 98L.

8:00PM EDT 19 September 2022 Update
Hurricane Fiona is now back over the Atlantic and a category 2 storm, the eye has cleared out. But only after moving over Guadaloupe, Puerto Rico and The Dominican Republic. The flooding in Guadalupe and especially Puerto Rico has been catastrophic. With power still out to almost all the island. The bands thankfully are starting to thin out this evening, but a few are still over the island.

The Turks and Caicos will be dealing with a strengthening Fiona soon, and Bermuda will be close on Thursday according to the forecast. Hurricane Warnings are up for the Turks and Caicos and extreme southeast Bahamas. Watches may go up for Bermuda tomorrow or Wednesday. Beyond Bermuda, Newfoundland and northeastern Nova Scotia should monitor it also.

Beyond Fiona, an area east of the Caribbean has a 30% chance to develop over the next 5 days, and will likely be the next system to watch closely as models suggest it could get into the western Caribbean and turn north at some point.

Another area in the central Atlantic has a 40% chance to develop but unlikely to affect any land

8:00PM EDT 18 September 2022 Update
Hurricane Fiona made landfall in extreme southwestern Puero Rico around 3:35PM in the afternoon, bringing extreme flooding rainfall to much of Puerto Rico and very widespread power outages. The system is currently heading a bit west of the official track and is near Mona Island between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. It's expected to move north fairly soon an may get close enough to the Turks and Caicos for Tropical storm force winds, although if it moves west enough, hurricane force winds may arrive. Beyond then a major hurricane is forecast and it eventually may get close to Bermuda late Thursday.

8:00AM EDT 18 September 2022 Update
Fiona is getting more organized this morning and forecast to become a hurricane before crossing the western part of Puerto Rico late today. Flooding and Mudslides in PR are possible. Beyond this tropical storm watches are up for the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas. Forecast takes it just east of there, however. Beyond this Bermuda should watch.

11:00AM EDT 17 September 2022 Update
Hurricane Warnings are up for Puerto Rico this morning as Fiona is expected to reach hurricane strength before nearing Puerto Rico Sunday evening. Due to where it's likely to cross near Puerto Rico, the risk of heavy rain and mudslides is high. Fiona has gotten a little disorganized this morning, but is also entering an area more favorable for development. Since fiona's structure is still quite sound, its likely to take advantage of that tomorrow, and thus the warnings.

A Hurricane Watch has also been issued for the US Virgin Islands. A hurricane watch and Tropical Storm warning remains up for parts of the Dominican Republic. Beyond this the Turks and Caicos and Bermuda should keep close watch.

8:00AM EDT 17 September 2022 Update
Tropical Storm Fiona's position shifted this morning back down, convection is heavy, but the center was a bit disrupted by the islands since recon found a bit lower winds since the 8am advisory. However, it's poised to enter a more favorable area for development soon and has a chance to become a hurricane before nearing Puerto Rico and the DR. Therefore hurricane watches are up (And tropical storm warnings) for Puerto Rico and eastern parts of the Dominican Republic.

Beyond this, perhaps the Turks and Caicos islands and eastern Bahamas.

Either way Fiona is forecast to become a hurricane just before it reaches the Dominican Republic.

11:00PM EDT 16 September 2022 Update
Tropical Storm FIona has passed over the island of Guadeloupe tonight and now has entered the Caribbean. It managed to form some convection closer to the center tonight and is back up to 60mph winds. Tropical Storm Warnings now extend into the Dominican Republic. Hurricane Watches may go up there if Fiona continues to strengthen. Tomorrow it will pass south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and likely begin to slow down once past there, and turn to the north. The southeastern Bahamas may also have tropical storm watches tomorrow or Sunday.

Beyond this, there's still a bit of a spread in the models, but it's unlikely to affect the mainland US and stay offshore, although it's still worth monitoring to see how far west Fiona gets before turning. The NHC's official track is the most likely. Bermuda may also need to watch in the longer term.

7:45AM EDT 16 September 2022 Update
Tropical Storm Fiona is sheared and moving rapidly to the west and has even slipped a little south of west since Yesterday. The exposed center remains to the west of the convection. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for Antigua, Barbuda, Saint Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla, Saba, Saint Eustatius, Saint Maarten, Guadeloupe, Saint Barthelemy. And watches are up for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Those that get into the convection may see quite a bit of rainfall, some of it potentially flooding. But the system is moving too quickly to really get a chance to strength much.

It's forecast to get to Hispaniola then start to turn north, possibly slowly. Beyond this point there remains a ton of questions. The factors include the forward speed of Fiona (currently, it may be ahead of schedule), the land interaction from Hispaniola,, and a lot more. Therefore the forecast models have a tremendous amount of spread once past the islands. The consensus has shifted further west from yesterday, and depending on if Fiona continues to be ahead of schedule today and remains more weak, could shift more. In short, those in the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the Eastern US (From Florida to Cape Cod) should continue to monitor it, once it gets away from the Caribbean several factors go away which may make it more clear on the path it goes.

There are also 2 other areas in the Atlantic, one Northwest of Bermuda with a 10% chance to develop, and another in the east Atlantic with a 20% chance. Neither will likely impact land, although Bermuda should watch the one closer to it.

7:30PM EDT 15 September 2022 Update
Fiona has managed to get up to 60mph (From recon) despite it's convection running behind its center. The outflow still remains impressive, but the short tem future is probably a bit weaker or sustained for a bit. The models have shifted a good deal west of earlier positions as well, implying a weaker system, and increasing the threat to the Bahamas and the US. It is something that needs to be monitored.

The islands near the path of Fiona may see flooding rainfall in parts, especially once on the eastern side of the Center. The Dominican Republic in particular may see some of the worst from that on Monday.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

10:45PM EDT 14 September 2022 Update
Tropical Storm Fiona has formed east of the Leeward islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for. Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla. This will likely expand westward into the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tomorrow.

Beyond the Caribbean islands, it's a bit difficult to say with any certainty, but the eastern Bahamas should watch closely. Currently most long range models keep it away from the SE US, but there is a lot in play that may change this, so it's worth monitoring there as well. But odds favor it staying away once past the Bahamas.

The system itself is somewhat lopsided, but the storm has strengthened to about 50mph winds. So strengthening of the storm will likely be slow to occur during the next day or so. It could move into a less hostile environment in a couple of days where it has a chance to become stronger. Especially if it manages to avoid Puerto Rico and especially Hispaniola.

9:45PM EDT 14 September 2022 Update
Tropical Storm Fiona has formed from TD#7 after a ASCAT Pass showed winds above tropical storm force at 50mph.


A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla


7PM EDT 14 September 2022 Update
Tropical Depression 7 formed earlier today from invest area 96L. No tropical storm watches or warnings are up yet, but could as early as late tonight or tomorrow morning. The next name on the list is Fiona

Those in the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico and Hispaniola should watch this closely. Beyond this, the Bahamas (particularly eastern Bahamas) should also pay attention. The southeast needs to monitor it, but the odds favor it staying offshore from there at the moment, but with a fair bit of spread in the models it could change. Bermuda should monitor it as well.

8AM EDT 14 September 2022 Update
Invest area 96L has jumped up to 70% chance to develop in 48 hours overnight and has gotten a bit better organized overnight and is close to tropical depression status. Those in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of
this system.

Beyond that, the models are spread from Texas to Bermuda on it beyond there with varying strengths, so it'll likely be something to keep an eye on into late next week. How much land interaction with the islands may have a tremendous impact on future track The next name is Fiona.

9AM EDT 13 September 2022 Update
The central Atlantic wave is now being tracked as Invest area 96L.

Original Update
After a fairly slow start to the week after Earl has passed there's something worth watching again in the Atlantic.

The area in the Central Atlantic has increased to 40% chance for development over the next 5 days, and has mixed model support for this. Those in the Northeastern Caribbean Islands should monitor this closely as it is moving fairly quickly and could reach the northeastern part as soon as this Friday, and may be close to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Sunday. Some models, such as the GFS keep it moving quickly and never develop it, while most others are a little bit slower and do develop it close to the islands. The Canadian CMC model is in between the others. Beyond this much depends on the interaction with the greater Antilles, but this system is something to watch closely into next week. This system is currently not being tracked as an Invest, but likely to become so later today.

The system in the east Atlantic has a 20% chance to develop and will likely stay out to sea.

Beyond this another wave may be worth watching once in the Atlantic, but still too soon to say for sure.

Fiona Animations/cams recordings


Fiona Event Related Links


float7latest.gif stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=7 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Fiona
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Fiona


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Fiona (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Fiona (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Fiona

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Fiona
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Fiona -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Tropical Depression Eight Event Related Links


float8latest.gif stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=8 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of TD8
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD8


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD8 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD8 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD8

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD8
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD8 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Invest 98L Event Related Links


float9latest.gif stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=9 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 98L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 98L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 98L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Bermuda Newspapers/Media:

BerNews

Royal Gazette (Bermuda)

Bermuda Sun

Hott 107.5 Bermuda Radio

Storm Carib Bermuda Reports

Bermuda Weather Service

Article Icon

Hurricane Season has Arrived?

Posted: 04:47 PM 03 September 2022 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 11:23 PM 09-Sep EDT

8:00AM EDT 12 September 2022 Update
Two 20% chance areas in the Atlantic this morning, but nothing imminent. The area in the Central Atlantic was the same area with a low chance last week that came back in the 5 day time frame again. However there is quite a lot of mid level dry air keeping this system week. It's something to watch as it moves west, it may be near the leeward islands of the Caribbean on Thursday or Friday, but will likely still be very weak at the time.

This week is likely to remain quiet in the Tropics, it could change next week potentially, though.

9:00PM EDT 07 September 2022 Update
The most unusual Atlantic hurricane season continues, with presently two, our first two hurricanes of the season, in the Atlantic, with neither actually in the tropics, and there is stark lack of model support advertising that a hurricane will form in the tropics at all this week, the very climatological "peak" of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Meanwhile, the hurricane that is actually likely to bring impacts to the United States this week, is over in the "La Niña" eastern Pacific, where Hurricane Kay is expected to bring blustery winds on Thursday to parts of SoCal, not SoFlo, fanning fire dangers there, and before bringing rains and thunderstorms Friday into the weekend. Go figure.

Kay poses significant peripheral threats to the Baja, as well as coastal southern into the interiors of California and Arizona, and Watches and Warnings are already going up.
Quote:

Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 113.0W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES




Back in the Atlantic, Hurricane Earl continues to strengthen in the subtropics tonight, and appears to be verifying many models' expectations of going Major. Earl poses a significant threat to Bermuda. To Earl's northeast, Danielle is transitioning into a powerful post-tropical cyclone, and is expected to reach Spain/Portugal early next week, weakening as it does so. Back in the eastern Atlantic, Invest 95L is very likely on the cusp of being classified, perhaps as soon as later tonight even, and behind 95L a wave that could be our next Invest. We are even also watching for a potential quick home-grown spin-up in the Gulf, but conditions there aren't ideal at the moment. All in all, very active tropics. Just not our father's or even our grandfather's La Niña, for sure.

Quote:

Hurricane Earl Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
800 PM AST Wed Sep 07 2022
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 65.5W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda




Original Update
The Atlantic basin may have been down, but is definitely not out. Tropical Storm and recent hurricane Danielle is likely to become a hurricane again in the north-central Atlantic. And now scraping the northern Leewards and tracking along just north of the Greater Antilles, Tropical Storm Earl is likely to become a hurricane as well, and possibly sooner rather than later. Both have the potential to Major; especially Earl.

While Earl is odds-on to recurve and Danielle is mostly a fish storm, interests in and near the Greater Antilles, Bermuda, as well as in the Azores may want to pay close attention, as any deviation in expected track could put these land areas at real risk for more significant impacts.



Earl Event Related Links


float6latest.gif stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=6 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Earl
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Earl


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Earl (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Earl (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Earl

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Earl
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Earl -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Danielle Event Related Links


float5latest.gif stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=5 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Danielle
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Danielle


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Danielle (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Danielle (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Danielle

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Danielle
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Danielle -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



Invest 95L Event Related Links


float7latest.gif stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=7 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 95L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 95L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 95L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 95L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 95L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 95L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

Bermuda Newspapers/Media:

BerNews

Royal Gazette (Bermuda)

Bermuda Sun

Hott 107.5 Bermuda Radio

Storm Carib Bermuda Reports

Bermuda Weather Service

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Article Icon

Is Tropical Fruit Finally Ripening in the Atlantic?

Posted: 04:52 PM 27 August 2022 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 09:55 PM 02-Sep EDT

7:00PM EDT 02 September 2022 Update
Recon has found Invest 91L even more developed tonight and it is likely that NHC will soon confirm that, while sheared, a bona fide Tropical Cyclone has formed, with advisories starting at any time. Interests in and around the Leewards Islands and the Greater Antilles may want to pay close attention to this system as it has trended a southerly track, could continue to do so if it misses its exit, and may already be a tropical storm. The next name on the list is Earl.
-Ciel

8:00AM EDT 02 September 2022 Update
Tropical Storm Danielle is well underway to becoming the first hurricane of the season, and likely will be upgraded to that within the next few hours. Danielle is expected to remain far away from land in the north Atlantic, and mostly a concern just for shipping.

The area east of the leeward islands sill has a 70% chance to develop over the next 5 days. But the system still remains too broad and elongated to be classified as a tropical depression or storm.
It likely will continue at this state for another day or so. A weaker system would imply a further west motion, however even then this system is still most likely to remain out to sea. A lot of that depends on how fast and strong the system does or does not get over the next week. Bermuda should continue to monitor it though.

In the east Atlantic chances for development seem to be dropping, and right now the official chances are 10% in the next 5 days.

10:30PM EDT 01 September 2022 Update
Recon investigating Invest 91L has found a somewhat more defined center with believable SFMR winds just under tropical storm force, a minimum central pressure of about 1005-1006mb, and it would seem this system is on the cusp. Considering that it is not coming together as rapidly as many models forecast and thus hugging more of the southern route still, Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories at the very least may be coming by morning, as it now stands to at least brush some of the Antilles. Also, even just a small increase in organization from here would qualify the system as a bona fide tropical cyclone.
-Ciel


4PM EDT 01 September 2022 Update
Tropical Storm Danielle has formed in the North Atlantic, and is strengthening rapidly, and could be a hurricane possibly later tonight or tomorrow. It is staying out to sea.


4AM EDT 01 September 2022 Update
Five has formed in the Atlantic, although it might not be the system most people have been talking about. Invest 93L has become a stout cyclone and likely to become quite strong well out at sea in the North Central Atlantic, and advisories are going to begin shortly. We have a Lounge up on the cyclone given the potential for it to impact the Azores and/or western Europe, otherwise mostly a fish spinner. Five Lounge
-Ciel


8AM EDT 31 August 2022 Update
3 Areas are being watched today, and it's likely we'll officially close off August without a named storm in the Atlantic. 93L may give a run for it, though.

The first east of the Caribbean islands (91L) still has an 80% chance to develop over the next 5 days. This area is still large and elongated and is taking quite a while to get together, convection from overnight has waned this morning, but there are signs of at least a fairly decent mid level center. It is expected to slowly over the next few day. Longer term, most likely based on model ensembles, this system will stay away from the Bahamas and US, but should be monitored just in unlikely case the slow forward motion causes things to shift later on. Bermuda should watch the closest, however.

The second is an area in the Subtropics further north in the Atlantic (Now Invest 93L), this is in a good spot for development, and chances are up to 70% for the next 5 days. It's moving east away from US land, it could impact the Azores and even Europe down the road, though.

The area in the east Atlantic is likely to have some impacts on the Cape/Cabo Verde islands. It has a 50% chance to develop. Beyond the Cabo/Cape Verde islands, it's likely to feel the impact from the other systems and get dragged out to sea also.




Base map cr. Weathernerds.org

2AM EDT 31 August 2022 Update
Conditions for hurricane development in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic are classically favorable now, with a few caveats: some residual subdued instability, dry air and also, interestingly, excessive horizontal vorticity in the MDR. These are a few items on the ponderables list for tropical cyclone experts this highly unusual season to try to tease out why it has seemingly defied forecasts. Caveats aside, the basin is clearly perking up, and it would not take much to see one, two or perhaps even more named storms this week as the month of August comes to a close and September begins.

Invest 91L is still elongated, lacking a well-defined center, but convection is firing and consolidating, and it appears that it is starting to get it together. It is looking likely that this will be become a T.D. or named storm today or tomorrow, and has a real shot of becoming not just this season's first hurricane, but also first major hurricane. The question then that every wants to know is, where will it go. Once we have a coherent system (bona fide tropical cyclone), models should become more reliable as to its track. Early runs suggest a recurvature well away from the U.S., but where it ultimately heads is going to depend a good deal on where a well-defined center has finally formed. The next name on the list in 2022 is Danielle.

Elsewhere, a vigorous tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic could become a T.D. or named storm and bring inclement weather to the Cabo Verde Islands this week, regardless of classification. In the sub-tropical Atlantic, development looks plausible along a decaying frontal zone, and this may also get named this week. Should it develop, it may impact the Azores by week's end.
Ciel


8PM EDT 30 August 2022 Update
Three areas this evening being watched, the newest is an area in the Central Subtropical Atlantic with a 30% chance to develop. The Red area (Invest 91L) is at 60% in the next 48 hours and 80% in the next 5 days, and is starting to organize more. It's still most likely to avoid the Caribbean islands to the north and stay out to sea, but should be watched in case anything changes, especially in Bermuda. The last area in the east Atlantic has a 40% chance to Develop, those in the Cabo/Cape Verde islands should keep watch.

8PM EDT 28 August 2022 Update
4 Areas being tracked right now, the area in the Northwestern Caribbean only has a 20% chance to develop, if it does it would likely be on Wednesday or Thursday. Those in the Yucatan Peninsula should keep watch in case it does decide to develop. It has very little model support (save one).
The Red area is now up to 70% chance to develop over the next 5 days, and 50% chance to develop in the next 48 hours. It is likely to become a depression or storm sometime this week, as it nears the Leeward islands. Those in those islands should watch closely, but it is likely to stay to the north. Beyond that the Bahamas will want to keep watch and the Southeast US coast, for probably labor day week. Although most of the long range ensembles keep it offshore, there is a point where steering may change later in next week that could bring it much closer to the coast. In short, way too soon to tell, so it's best to monitor this particular area over the next week or two.
Another area in the East Atlantic has a 20% chance to develop in the next 5 days, and a small area east of Bermuda only has a 10% chance to develop.

8PM EDT 27 August 2022 Update
Conditions for development continue to improve and as of tonight NHC has also added the well-defined Low centered about 600 miles east of Bermuda we noted earlier in the original entry to their evening Tropical Weather Outlook, and it now seems more likely than not there will be at least one or two Invest-tagged features by early next week.

The well-defined Low east of Bermuda would probably only have to sustain deep convection for a while to get named, but fortunately it should stay well out at sea and at the moment is also contending with some stout shear at any rate. For those residing in the western Atlantic, the two main players of interest at this time are the large, sprawly area of low pressure in the central Atlantic, and the genesis forecast by GFS next week in the western Caribbean.
Ciel

Original Update


We've already had a number of lemons this year, plus a few oranges that barely got their act together at the very last moment. But now we see a couple of systems far enough out that while still officially "code yellow" or maybe even a bit of "code orange," could possibly be something other than yet another long-range bust. Bananas!

Speaking of bananas, it is fairly common for tropical cyclones to form in clusters, ripening one after another or even at about the same time. As of Saturday August 27, there are three main features being monitored by NHC for potential development within the 2-5 day window. One coming up from the central Caribbean heading west-northwest, one east of the Caribbean in the central Atlantic, and a third about to exit the west coast of Africa into the far eastern Atlantic. In addition, there are a couple of other areas that while not mentioned yet in the NHC TWO, are worth keeping an eye on, especially given how this year has seen more systems pop close to home and at the last minute than out at sea even with hearty model support to do so.

As the system in the central Atlantic has held its own for a few days despite less-than-ideal conditions, and it does have general model support, a Forecast Lounge is now up on this feature open for discussion and model talk here 91L Forecast Lounge
Ciel


Earl Event Related Links


float6latest.gif stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=6 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Earl
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Earl


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Earl (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Earl (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Earl

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Earl
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Earl -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Danielle Event Related Links


float5latest.gif stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=5 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Danielle
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Danielle


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Danielle (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Danielle (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Danielle

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Danielle
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Danielle -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Invest 94L Event Related Links


float7latest.gif stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=7 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 94L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

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