November Waves and Lows
Posted: 02:59 PM 10 November 2018 | | Add Comment
96L has been greenballed (reactivated for tracking), and is rapidly organizing into a well-defined area of low pressure today, centered at roughly 24N 74.5W as of 1500z. If current trends continue NHC would likely issue an update by the regularly scheduled 7PM TWO.
Additional tracking info and speculation on 96L is also available in the 96L Lounge.
Above: Visible satellite of two areas of interest early morning Nov 10. Base map courtesy Weathernerds.org
A couple of unseasonably impressive waves in the Tropical Atlantic have the potential for some development next week, with steering currents that could push one or more near or over portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas and/or Bermuda.
The most impressive wave is presently located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, and has caught the attention of NHC as well as several of the better models for development - now at 40% within 5 days per NHC
Another feature, a trough centered about halfway between the above referenced wave and the Lesser Antilles, is not presently flagged by NHC for potential, but could be. Although models analyze conditions as less ideal for TC genesis than for the wave to its east, it is looking very impressive, suggesting that this disturbance is more vigorous and/or the environment is more conducive than models think.
Both of these features are likely to produce moderate to heavy showers and strong, gusty winds over populated portions of the SW Atlantic regardless of development.
This post will be updated with any Invest tags and TC numbers as warranted.
96L Event Related Links
The Atlantic after Michael
Posted: 04:49 PM 14 October 2018 | | Add Comment
We are keeping an eye on a broad area of low pressure located 900+ miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. The feature, tagged 95L, is expected by NHC to develop, but is not expected to threaten land.
Elsewhere, Super Typhoon Yutu with winds of at least 180 MPH is making landfall near Guam:
43 minutes ago
...EYE OF SUPER TYPHOON YUTU OVER TINIAN AND SAIPAN...
THE EYE OF SUPER TYPHOON YUTU NOW OVER TINIAN AND SOUTHERN SAIPAN.THE CURRENT POSITION OF YUTU HAS THE EYE OVER TINIAN AND SOUTHERN SAIPAN WITH MAX WINDS IN THE EYE WALL 180 MPH OR STRONGER...A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 SUPER TYPHOON. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TINIAN AND SAIPAN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES FOR ANY CHANGES THAT MIGHT IMPACT YOUR ISLAND. EITHER LOCAL MEDIA OR THE NWS GUAM WEBSITE AT www.WEATHER.GOV/GUM/ ARE GOOD CHOICES.
Last, moisture from former Cat 5 EPAC Willa is streaming into the southern Gulf states. A remnant of Willa may help form a coastal Low over the coming days and run up the south to southeast to eastern seaboard.
Hurricane Michael will be one remembered for years to come for this decade for Florida. Although Irma, Matthew and Hermine (The other 3 hurricanes, and only ones from the decade) will be remembered, the raw violent nature of Michael will put that at the top, along with its impacts well inland. Post analysis may bring it up to Category 5 after all is said and done. Callaway, Tyndall, Mexico Beach, Cape San Blas and Panama City within Gulf and Bay counties are forever changed, as many areas around ti were also.
Our twitter feed is full of examples and response to it.
Beyond that Leslie made landfall in Portugal and brought damage to there, very unexpectedly.
Two low-chance areas are being watched, a 20% area in the West Caribbean (94L) and another area in the Central Atlantic with 10%. Neither have much model support, but there is a possibility for one or two more systems this season before all is said and done.
Links for 95L may need to update - use with caution
Oscar Event Related Links
Major Hurricane Michael Approaches the Panhandle
Posted: 05:51 PM 05 October 2018 | 41 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 09:07 PM 11-Oct EDT
Michael is now an intensifying Cat 4 hurricane, and has a real chance to make Cat 5 before landfall later today. This is a historic hurricane, and unfortunately for many, its impacts will never be forgotten.
Those in evacuation zones who have been ordered to leave, you are being urged to do so *if it is still safe* Otherwise, it's bunker down. If avoiding storm surge by staying at a higher building level, remember that winds will be stronger the higher up one goes. Stay away from windows and anything that could become airborne projectiles in the event windows are blown out and/or roofs are blown away and/or walls collapse. If certain rooms are at risk for felled trees or telephone poles etc., consider avoiding those rooms altogether. The general safety protocols for surviving a tornado may apply (inner room - ideally not on a top floor).
Hurricane Michael Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL AL142018
242 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 /142 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/
This product covers
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
Catastrophic storm surge and winds are expected from Michael. Hurricane Michael is now at category 4 hurricane. Michael is expected to make landfall as a category 4 along the Florida Panhandle Coast or Big Bend. This is an unprecedented event as there are no Category 4 storms on record to have made landfall along the Florida Panhandle coast. Michael is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge, widespread power outages that will last days to even more than a week in some areas, downed trees that will block access to roads and endanger individuals, structural damage to homes and businesses, isolated flash flooding and the potential for tornadoes. Trees falling on homes will become a dangerous and potentially deadly situation. If you have been ordered to evacuate by authorities, we urge you to do so. Early this morning is your last chance to move to a safer location.
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible devastating impacts across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend coastline. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded from considerable floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
- Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted onshore and stranded.
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating impacts across the Florida Panhandle, Western Big Bend, SW Georgia and SE Alabama. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across the Florida Panhandle, Western Big Bend, SW Georgia and SE Alabama. Potential impacts include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited to significant impacts across Eastern Big Bend.
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant impacts across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.
8PM EDT Update 9 October 2018
Michael is a strengthening major hurricane that has a high chance to make category 4 before landfall near Panama City Beach, FL tomorrow afternoon.
Those in the area are out of time to prepare as tonight conditions will start to deteriorate. Storm surge will be the most dangerous aspect of this hurricane.
Listen to local officials and media for information on your local area.
7AM EDT Update 9 October 2018
Because of the fast movement forecast, a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect along the southeastern coast of the United States from Fernandina Beach, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina. This may be extended a bit north later.
Michael is held at 90mph hurricane overnight with some affects from shear and dry air from the western side. Both of those factors for keeping it in check are diminishing today, recon reports within the last few minutes now show it starting another set of organizing again.
The system, despite that, is becoming better defined and will enter an area of less shear later today, at that point it is likely to undergo another round of strengthening, and a category 3 storm with 120mph is forecast for landfall in the Panhandle within the hurricane warning area. Most of the worst (but not all) of the surge and weather will be on the eastern side.
Evacuation orders are out for parts of the Panhandle and Big Bend Areas, pay attention to local media and officials for information for your particular area. If you are asked to evacuate, please do so. Conditions will start to deteriorate this evening, if not a little sooner in the hurricane warning area.st.
Those in the southeast may receive some strong wind, power outages, and surge as well after the storm makes landfall. Some coastal surge flooding may also occur along the east coast deepening on the prevailing wind direction and which direction the coast faces vs the wind.
11AM EDT Update 8 October 2018
Michael is now a hurricane, and a major hurricane is now forecast to landfall somewhere in the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday.
5AM Update 8 October 2018
Hurricane watches are now up from Al/FL Border east to Suwanee River. Tropical Storm watch east and south of there along the west coast of Florida to Anna Maria Island (Including Tampa Bay) for Michael, which is nearly a hurricane this morning with 70mph Winds. The official forecast takes Michael in as a cat 2 currently Wednesday Afternoon, however there is a real possibility that Michael will strengthen to a major category 3 hurricane before landfall (and the official Hurricane Center discussion calls that out). So prepare for that.
Listen to local media and officials for your area, and if you are asked to evacuate along the water please do so. The area forecast for landfall is extremely susceptible to storm surge particularly at the landfall point and east of it. In fact, A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay.
Since Michael is expected to reach hurricane status very soon, before it enters the Gulf, the government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
province of Pinar del Rio.
Noon EDT Update 7 September 2018
Satellite wind data indicate that the depression has strengthened
into Tropical Storm Michael. The maximum winds are estimated to be
40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate Michael.
10:45 AM EDT Update 7 September 2018
Tropical Depression 14 has formed in the Western Caribbean and Tropical Storm Warnings are up for Western Cuba and parts of the Yucatan.
Forecast models and the official suggest a hurricane hit for the Gulf coast (Panhandle) on Wednesday. The potential for rapid intensification exists, so it would be prudent to prepare for a potential major, and hope it stays a cat 1/2.
Florida governor Rick Scott has issued a state of emergency for Florida to open up resources to support anything that happens with what will be named Michael.
September wrapped up very active, with 1 Major, 1 Cat Two, 1 Cat One, 4 Tropical Storms, 1 TD, and was the first month since 2008 (that's a lot of months) to have four simultaneous named storms in the Atlantic basin: Florence, Isaac, Helene and Joyce.
October is historically the month when points of origin pull in closer to home, and one of the more common ways we see tropical cyclones form during the month is from spinoffs of a Central American Gyre, which is a sprawling seasonal area of low pressure that can sometimes serve as a sort of disturbance factory. Like the name suggests, this gyre takes up shop over central America, and can last for up to several weeks.
The first disturbance to be Invest tagged on the Atlantic side has a high chance of becoming a named storm, with some chance of becoming significant, especially if allowed enough time before coming ashore. We have a Forecast Lounge now up for this one: 91L/FOURTEEN/MICHAEL Lounge.
Another Low associated with the parent gyre we are watching is just barely on the Pacific side of central America, and there is some tepid model support for it to cross over into the Caribbean or Gulf. In fact, there's a pretty decent shot that 91L and 97E do not end up being the last spinoff from the gyre, and will continue to update on any of these other potentials in the 2018 Forecast Lounge .
Elsewhere, Leslie continues hanging on meandering in the central Atlantic like a good September storm. ("Gone fishing!")
Michael Related Radars/Webcam recordings
Weather Stem (Webcams at schools in the area)
Storm Chaser Position Map
Bay county traffic cameras
Wisconsin Michael Satellite (W Track and radar)
Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Newspapers Panama City Beach News Herald
]https://wflafm.iheart.com/ 100.7 WFLA News Radio Tallahassee, FL]
Alabama Power Outage Map
Michael Event Related Links
End Of September
Posted: 07:25 AM 30 September 2018 | | Add Comment
Leslie remains in the Atlantic, potentially a long-lived system that is unlikely to affect any land (At least anytime soon). It will need to be monitored to see where it eventually winds up, but could move out to sea to the north or veer back east.
October is where we begin to move the attention back closer in toward areas such as the Bahamas, West Caribbean, and Gulf. And the next potential area to watch very closely is probably near the West Caribbean, which may show up this coming weekend.
Beyond that Rosa in the East Pacific is forecast to make landfall in Mexico along Baja California and potentially impact Arizona. Mark Sudduth at Hurricanetrack.com is heading out to check that situation out.
Caribbean Forecast Lounge
Hurricane Rosa Thread
Invest 91L Event Related Links
Atlantic Revs Back Up - And Getting Closer to Land
Posted: 03:28 PM 20 September 2018 | 6 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 02:37 PM 26-Sep EDT
Kirk underwent tropical cyclone regeneration over the past 24 hours and Advisories are resuming. As winds are already blowing at or above 40 MPH and the storm is now also much closer to the Lesser Antilles, this includes Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings.
Elsewhere, Leslie is undergoing a rapid merging and regeneration. As enough of her core has remained intact, the cyclone is expected to keep the same name, and advisories are likely to resume as soon as later today. Leslie may become a very powerful tropical and/or hybrid cyclone and stay with us for quite a while, possibly racking up sizeable ACE points for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season, but fortunately doing so well away from most land.
Invest 98L is passing by the Carolinas, adding to the influx of moisture in the region and reigniting flooding woes. The weak Low now has only a modest chance of becoming classified, and is likely to zip out to sea by Friday, either way.
4PM ET Update 22 September 2018
A tropical cornucopia of systems are now filling the screens as we close out the end of an already very active September.
With this update we now have two new Tropical Cyclones: TD ELEVEN, located about 450 miles east of the Windward Islands, and also Tropical Storm Kirk, located in the far eastern Atlantic.
There are another six Areas of Interest coming up, two of which may become subtropical or tropical cyclones by the early part of next week (98L between Bermuda and the Carolinas, plus also the large, non-tropical Low in the central Atlantic).
Despite forecasts for a near-to-below-average year, September seems to have made other plans. We now already have had six named storms this month. The record for named storms in any one month in the Atlantic going back though known history is eight, which has occurred five times: Oct 1950, Sep 2002, Aug 2004, Sep 2010, and most recently Aug 2012. Two more names this month would tie that record, three would break it.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially runs through the end of November and we have several reminders of that today. Indications are strong that the last ten days of this month will likely not go out quietly, with several lows and a couple African Easterly Waves already on the radar.
Two of these features in particular have already been Invest tagged, 97L and 98L. Of these two, 98L appears to be organizing rapidly today, with maximum sustained winds already to tropical storm force approaching the island nation of Bermuda. This system is especially interesting, as it looks to have been spawned in part from an infusion of energy from x-Florence.
Main page mapping and links will be coming soon. Meanwhile, you can also track model outputs and more with us in the Forecast Lounge:
99L (Now Tropical Storm Kirk) Forecast Lounge
98L Forecast Lounge
97L (Now TD ELEVEN) Forecast Lounge
Tropical Depression Eleven Event Related Links
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)