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LAND THREATS: FIVE has become #Dorian and heading towards Caribbean. #98L still inland over S FL. #90L still hugging the TX/LA coasts.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Barry) , Major: 318 (Michael) Florida - Any: 318 (Michael) Major: 318 (Michael)
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Click to Expand Weather Text Tropical Storm Dorian - Public Advisory - 5:00 PM EDT (History) Depression Strengthens Into The Fourth Tropical Storm Of The 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season
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Heading into Season Peak with Several Systems Close to Home

Posted: 05:17 PM 23 August 2019 | | Add Comment



5PM EST 24 August 2019 Update
FIVE has become a Tropical Storm, Dorian, the fourth named storm of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Dorian is traversing an environment characterized by moderate vertical wind shear and low mid-level humidities. However, shear is forecast to drop by midday Sunday, and remain low or even very low through Tuesday. As the well-defined TC crosses over warm waters while in this very favorable shear, the potential for dry air intrusions could be low, and in fact the official NHC forecast calls for Dorian to become a hurricane within 72 hours.

Key Messages:
Quote:

1. Dorian is forecast to strengthen and could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.

2. It is too soon to determine the specific timing or magnitude of impacts in the Lesser Antilles, but tropical storm or hurricane watches may be needed for a portion of the area on Sunday.



Original Entry
We are just a few weeks away from the climatological peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and there are several systems we are monitoring, three of which are close to or closing in on land: 98L, 99L, W Gulf Low (Very strong 90L candidate).

As these systems are all tending to form in the Western Atlantic, as has been a trend this year, they are far more likely to affect land or interests close to land, including the south and/or southeast U.S.

As of 5PM EDT today August 23, official NHC odds for development are as follows: 98L 90%, 99L 50% (could be conservative), Gulf Low: TBD. Was still under 10% at the 2PM TWO and thus not listed at that time, but this system has continued to impress, with surface pressures falling some and winds increasing some throughout the day today.

Follow along with us in the 2019 Forecast Lounge , as well as here on the Homepage.

Links to individual Forecast Lounges:
Invest 98L Lounge, Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge, W Gulf Low _90L_ Lounge



Tropical Storm Dorian Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Dorian - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Dorian


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Dorian (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Dorian (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Dorian

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Dorian
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Dorian -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Invest 98L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 98L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 98L


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float6latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 98L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Invest 90L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 90L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 90L


stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float7latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 90L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 90L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 90L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 90L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 90L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)



Chantal Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Chantal - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Chantal


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float4latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Chantal (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Chantal (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Chantal

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Chantal
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Chantal -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)



StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida - Invest 98L Lounge Invest 99L Lounge W Gulf Trof Lounge

North Gulf Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Lake Charles, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA - Houston/Galveston, TX

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Tropical Storm Chantal Forms in the Open Atlantic

Posted: 03:30 PM 28 July 2019 | 17 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 03:42 PM 23-Aug EDT

3:30 PM EST 22 August 2019 Update
We're now tracking 98L over the Bahamas, with a 30% chance for development. Looks good on satellite today, but hopefully will stay offshore before it develops. Recon may investigate tomorrow.

10:30 PM AST 20 August 2019 Update
Invest 97L rapidly organized throughout the day (and night) while heading east out to sea, and has become the fourth Tropical Cyclone and third named storm of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season. No threat to land for the foreseeable future, if ever.
-Ciel


The 2PM Outlook shows a 20% chance for development in the system in the east Atlantic later this week as it moves toward Hispaniola and later the Bahamas,there is several days to watch as the system develop, which isn't expected until it gets north of the Caribbean islands. This system is being tracked as invest 95L.


It will most likely stay east of Florida, but the forecasting models seem to behind the curve on the current state of this system, so it's wise to monitor it closely. See the forecast lounge for more speculation on this system. The overall pattern suggests any systems that develop in early August will likely curve away from the US.


Chantal Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Chantal - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Chantal


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float4latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Chantal (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Chantal (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Chantal

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Chantal
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Chantal -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Invest 98L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 98L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 98L


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float5latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 98L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Invest 99L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 99L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float6latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 99L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

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Tropical Depression 3 Dissipates in late July

Posted: 09:30 AM 21 July 2019 | 3 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 03:02 PM 22-Jul EDT

11 AM EDT 23 July 2019 Update
TD#3 has dissipated after recon found it falling apart.

There is an area in the Gulf with a 20% chance for development later in the week.

9:30 PM EDT 22 July 2019 Update
Tropical Depression 3 formed, and quickly lost convection after being upgraded. Although overnight it may regain some.

This is expected to remain offshore of Florida, and outside of right along the beach, should not be really noticeable to Florida.

Original Update
The National Hurricane Center is mentioning a new area east of the Bahamas in the Outlook, with a 20% chance of development. This area, being designated Invest 94L, has no model support yet, but there is enough vorticity to make it worth watching.

If this were late August or September it probably be much more concerning. It's been mostly surrounded by dry air, but is gaining some moisture, but will likely remain squelched by dry air for the next few days. It's fighting a front coming up as well, so the chances for anything happening are quite low. But because of the location it's now designated 94L.

No real model support, but the chance for a small system ramping up is still there. Since it's near Bahamas and Florida it has our attention.

See The forecast lounge. for more speculation.

July 22nd 5PM EDT update - The NHC decided to classify the system in the Bahamas as Tropical Depression 3. Not much is expected from the system as it moves north for the next couple of days until it's likely absorbed by a frontal boundary.

However, interests along the Florida, Georgia, and Carolina coast should keep an eye on the system.

Tropical Depression 3 Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 3 - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 3


stormplotthumb_3.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float3latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 3 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 3 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 3

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 3
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 3 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Invest 95L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 95 - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 95


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float4latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 95 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 95 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 95

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 95
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

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Hurricane Barry forms in Gulf of Mexico

Posted: 10:53 AM 10 July 2019 | 26 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 09:02 AM 13-Jul EDT

10:00 AM CDT 13 July 2019 Update
Hurricane Barry forms in the Gulf just as it makes landfall in the Central Louisiana coastline. Despite being very lopsided to the south and southeast, Buoy, Aircraft, Rig reports have found Barry has reached hurricane strength. Rainfall once the southern portion arrives will be the largest threat, those north and west of the center will likely hardly notice anything.

However the southern section does extend fairly far west, so Tropical storm warnings have been extended westward to Sabine Pass.


6:30 PM CDT 12 July 2019 Update
Barry's structure has improved throughout the day Friday, with progressively stronger surface winds the closer one is to the very center. In addition, upper-level outflow has improved in all quadrants, and most importantly so, in the northern half of the cyclone. Barry is now a fully tropical Tropical Cyclone and by all accounts, likely maturing into a hurricane before landfall.

While not expected, Barry, likely to be a full-fledged and not fledgling, dangerous TC before landfall, could strengthen even more than forecast with so much of it over anomalously warm Gulf waters. With high-end tropical storm to full hurricane-force gusts likely to push inland, given all the rain on the way, trees will fall. Easily. Wind-related injuries and fatalities are often from falling trees and branches.

The greatest threat by far is coming in the way of life-threatening, flooding rain that could continue for an extended duration. Anyone who has remained in areas prone to flooding should be rushing to completion efforts to protect life and property, if not evacuating if so advised by local authorities. Flooding in this event may exceed all previous records in several places.
Quote:


NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Day 2 Valid 12Z Sat Jul 13 2019 - 12Z Sun Jul 14 2019

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF NEW ORLEANS AND BATON ROUGE...

...Central Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley...
Extreme rainfall will likely lead to significant and life-threatening flash flooding from coastal LA into southwestern MS and the LA/MS border from Saturday into Sunday.



-Ciel

10:30 AM CDT 12 July 2019 Update
Barry is doing a run on strengthening today, but it still a fairly sloppy system, although the primary center is not expected to make landfall until tomorrow morning, a strong are of convection currently on south side of the center likely will rotate around and up over the Louisiana coastline and near New Orleans, likely late afternoon or evening. This will bring heavy rain and surge into the areas. Lake Pontchartrain is now under a storm Surge Warning.

10 AM CDT 11 July 2019 Update
Tropical Storm Barry has formed


6 AM CDT 11 July 2019 Update

Recon failed to find enough orgnaiztion to upgrade the system overnight, but it still remains close to becoming a tropical depression or storm this morning. The track was adjusted slightly in central Louisiana bringing more eastern side rains potentially to New Orleans.

The recon flying right now is finding lower pressures (1003 mb) and a bit more organizatio9n which implies an upgrade may happen sooner than later.

This system is mostly going to be a rain maker, although a hurricane at landfall is still forecast by late tomorrow or Saturday morning. Because the system has not properly formed there is still a great deal o9f uncertainty in he official forecast

Those in the watch area should pay attention to local media and officials for informatio9n specific to their area.

8:30PM CDT July 10, 2019 Update
PTC TWO looks to have completed Tropical Cyclogenesis, or is right on the cusp of doing so, and may easily be a named, and fully tropical, storm, Thursday. This is a particularly dangerous situation, with the risk of extreme inland flooding high. Barry may even cause overtopping Saturday of the Mississippi river levee in the Lower 9th Ward, Algiers and St. Bernard Parish. Even though 92L/proto-Barry is "not (yet) named," preparations along its path to protect life and property should now be underway. Time is limited, and at some point evacuation routes, hotels, shelters, stores and such may be completely inaccessible.

Further discussion and speculation for potential impacts and future track of proto-Barry can be found in the TWO/Barry Forecast Lounge.
-Ciel

Original Post
Potential Tropical Storm 2 Advisory issued, Hurricane forecast for Louisiana Saturday midday.

The idea of potential advisories is to allow for official watches and warnings even before a storm has properly formed if it will impact land areas.

Flooding rainfall has already occurred in New Orleans and more is on the way to potentially the worst flooding there since 1927. More to come soon.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City, Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Morgan City, Louisiana.



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City...3 to 5 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches near and inland of the central Gulf Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 18 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Thursday or early Friday.

Barry Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Barry - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Barry


stormplotthumb_2.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float2latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Barry (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Barry (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Barry

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Barry
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Barry -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


MesoScale Satellite of Barry

Louisiana Power Outage Map


Louisiana Information

Govt/Official Info:

Louisiana Emergency Management

Mississippi Emergency Management

Alabama Emergency Management

Louisiana Dept. of Transportation - Road Closures, Traffic Cams, etc.

Mississippi - Road Closures, Traffic Cams, etc

Alabama Road Conditions and Traffic Cameras


Media Newspapers/TV/Radio:

Nola.com New Orleans Times-Picayune

WWL TV 4 (CBS Affiliate in New Orleans)

ABC 26 TV (ABC Affiliate in New Orleans)

WDSU Channel 6 (NBC Affiliate New Orleans)

Fox 8 (New Orleans)

WTIX 690 News Radio

WWL 870 News Radio

WTOK 11 / Missippii Alabama ABC Affiliate

WKRG 5 in Mobile/Pensacola

WPMI Channel 15 from Mobile

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

North Gulf Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Lake Charles, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA - Houston/Galveston, TX

Texas Gulf Coast Links Texas/South Plains Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Corpus Christi, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Brownsville, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Houston/Galveston, TX - Corpus Christi, TX - Browsnville/South Padre Island, TX

Invest 94L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 94L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L


stormplotthumb_3.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float3latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

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92L Nearing the Gulf

Posted: 08:07 PM 07 July 2019 | 5 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 10:36 AM 10-Jul EDT

b]10:00 AM EDT 10 July 2019 Update

The NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two at 10 am CDT. (11am EDT) Watches Likely for Louisiana which is already receiving flooding rainfall this morning (New Orleans got 6-10 inches this
morning)
.

8:30 AM EDT 10 July 2019 Update

92L is now getting organized in the Gulf of Mexico as can be seen on satellite imagery. There still is a 90% chance for development over the next 48 hours. It could form as early as tonight (Recon scheduled for this afternoon would likely make that determination), but more likely sometime tomorrow.

It is very likely that Hurricane, Tropical Storm, and Storm Surges Watches/Warnings will be issued later today.

The models range from Louisiana to Northeast Texas, and vary in strength. Typically points at and to the right of the center of the storm see the worst of the weather and surge. In any case large amounts of flooding rainfall are expected, and this system still could strengthen into a hurricane. Upper level conditions around 92L are good for development, so it looks like things will start popping later today.


8:30 AM EDT 9 July 2019 Update
The 92L system, now over the Florida Panhandle and likely to move over water later today, still has an 80% chance for development over the next 5 days and 50% development over the next 48 hours.

Today will bring rain to some areas along the Florida coast, but any real organization (if any) is not likely until Thursday.

The National Hurricane Center may begin Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories as early as this evening depending on how the storm progresses. Regardless of how much the storm forms, there will be heavy rain along the northern and northeastern Gulf coasts.

There still remains potential for a strong tropical storm or hurricane to develop, so those in Louisiana in particular along with just east and west of there should continue to watch this system closely. Especially as Friday and Saturday arrive. It is also important to note there is still a chance this does not form at all.

9:30 AM EDT 8 July 2019 Update
The Georgia system is now being tracked as invest 92L. Model/forecast/speculation can be found in the Forecast Lounge.

5AM EDT 8 July 2019 Update
The frontal boundary disturbance currently over western Georgia now has an 80% chance to develop this week. Based on the current models its not likely to emerge into the Gulf until tomorrow night, but once there is enough of favorable environment for something tropical to form in the Gulf Thursday or Friday, and most likely drift westward during this time.

The system is most likely just a rain maker, but if it manages to stay in the gulf long enough it could form into a strong tropical storm or hurricane. Those in the Gulf, particularly from NE Texas and Louisiana should be watching this one closely for this coming weekend.

Those further east and west should also continue to monitor It's likely not to have any official tropical advisories issued until the system is almost or has formed. So watch the hurricane center's outlooks closely.

Original Update
An interesting combination of a frontal system and a mid-level disturbance,currently over extreme northwestern Georgia along with very warm Gulf waters makes for an interesting mid to late week when the system moves out over the Gulf and upper level conditions turn favorable for development.

There it may have favorable enough conditions to form, in fact most of the models suggest it. Therefore the NHC has increased development chances to 60% over the next 5 days. Depending on how far south and west the system drifts, the more inclined it can form. Therefore those along the northern Gulf coast, from Western Louisiana/NE Texas Coast all the way to the Florida Panhandle should watch this one closely over the next few days. And those further east and west. will want to follow.

This area is not currently tagged as an invest, and it is currently over land. However, the spin is evident on radar currently at the point of convergence. If this moves south over water it won't take much for it to start forming. One thing to watch in the short term is how far south vs east this system gets. Even if it does develop, it isn't likely to gain too much strength and primarily be a rain maker. However the heat content and proximity to land still requires attention in case it does linger over water longer than anticipated.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Two - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Two


stormplotthumb_2.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float2latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Two (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Two (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Two

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Two
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Two -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

North Gulf Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Lake Charles, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA - Houston/Galveston, TX

Texas Gulf Coast Links Texas/South Plains Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Corpus Christi, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Brownsville, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Houston/Galveston, TX - Corpus Christi, TX - Browsnville/South Padre Island, TX

10.7N 49.1W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1008mb
Moving:
W at 12 mph
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