May 15th is the first official day of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season, the Atlantic starts on June 1st.

And this year the East Pacific is already active with Tropical Storm Aletta forming this morning. The system is well away from land areas and not moving toward any.

The Atlantic had a weak system in the Central Atlantic (92L) that has fallen apart, and nothing else likely remains.

In years past, many times when the East Pacific was active, the Atlantic was quite (And sometimes vice-versa). This year's early Atlantic season will likely be slow with just a few things to watch, and little to no actual storms. Late July and August things may pick up, with mid August - mid October being they key times to watch.

The site will continue to focus less on hype and more just facts, we will highlight areas that could potentially form (such as invests or disturbances, but will avoid speculation on what will occur. Long range model runs can be especially misleading in the first two months of hurricane season (and really the entire season)..

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Invest 92L is the non-tropical surface reflection of a developing upper level low and at 12/23Z the low was located near 33.5N 30.5W in the far eastern Atlantic about 400 miles southwest of the southern Azores. The gale center has winds of 45kts and a central pressure of 1009mb and the system is moving north - in a cyclonic loop for most of Saturday. A frontal system near 55W is approaching from the west and should nudge the low off to the northeast in a day or so.

NHC gives the system a modest (40%) chance for subtropical development which seems a bit high given the chilly SSTs of 21C. With just three weeks before the start of the season, this system serves as a reminder that the 2012 hurricane season is fast approaching.

ADDED 5/13: Chances diminishing for any additional development of this system.
ED

92L Event Related Links

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 92L
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR [Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop) Funktop (Loop)

An area near the Yucatan channel has been designated invest 90L, in February on Super Bowl Sunday.

Although shear is a bit too high to allow for pure tropical development, there exists a possibility for sub-tropical development, which is unusual, but has occurred in the past, in early February of 1952 there was an unusually warm winter in Florida, and during this a storm See track made landfall Feb 2, groundhog's day in southwest Florida. This system formed near where the invest currently is now.

This will be monitored for potential development, right now probably about a 10-20% shot. Those in Southwest Florida may expect a rough Tuesday or Wednesday if this materializes, but it will be more a rainmaker and oddity than any real threat.

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

92L Event Related Links

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 92L
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR [Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop) Funktop (Loop)

Last year the initial thoughts were for a less busy season but that was not the case. Hurricane season starts on June 1st and once again initial SST projections suggest a quieter season, but after last year, anything is possible.

We'll keep an eye on the Atlantic Basin during the long quiet time of Winter and Spring just in case out-of-season activity pops up.
ED


90L Event Related Links

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 90L
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 90L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 90L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 90L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 90L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR [Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop) Funktop (Loop)