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TS Beta Strengthening, Hurricane Watches are now up from Port Aransas, TX to High Island, TX.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 2 (Sally) , Major: 23 (Laura) Florida - Any: 709 (Michael) Major: 709 (Michael)
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The Gulf and Bermuda

Posted: 02:24 PM 17 September 2020 | | Add Comment

4:30PM GMT 18 September 2020 Update
We've gone Greek!
But it might not be the system you were expecting, as NHC has pulled the trigger on the hybrid tropical cyclone making its approach on Portugal we have been watching as one of the three systems that could be named before the week is up. This makes the Atlantic basin's second naming just today, with 98L becoming Wilfred this morning.

10:00AM CDT 18 September 2020 Update

Invest 98L in the eastern Atlantic has become Tropical Storm Wilfred, which means that TD22 if named later today would become the Alpha storm.

The latest thinking on TD22 is that it tracks north a little while longer, then hooks left toward the Texas coast, may go a bit inland, hug the coast, or stay just offshore, and begin moving northeast. Whatever it does, it will likely do at a gradual pace, and the closer it gets to land, the greater the threat of flooding. TWENTY-TWO may be a very sticky cyclone, and even if it never becomes a major hurricane, could be especially dangerous as a major flood-maker owing to its slow motion.

Elsewhere, Major Hurricane Teddy is heading northwest and is giving Bermuda sweats as it looks to be a close call. After that there is some question as to the odds of it heading into the Gulf of Maine or plowing into Nova Scotia.

Other features we are keeping an eye on is Invest Paulette in the far northern Atlantic, and yet another wave rolling off Africa.

Invest 99L is making landfall on Portugal, yes Portugal, as an unnamed hybrid Tropical Cyclone.


6:00PM CDT 17 September 2020 Update
Recon finds Invest 90L has become a Tropical Depression, the remarkable 22nd of this hyperactive season, and Special Advisories have been issued.
Quote:

SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 94.3W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES




Elsewhere, Hurricane Teddy is now at least a 140 MPH Cat 4, and is expected to remain in a favorable environment for the next two days or so. Consequently, as Rapid Intensification is still underway, it is possible that Teddy could have 2020 become the record fifth season in a row with at least one Cat 5 in the Atlantic basin, breaking the record of four set just last year. Prior to this stretch, the prior record of back-to-back seasons seeing a Category Five in the ATL was during the 2003-04-05 stretch.

Original Update
In a dizzying near déjà vu, we are closely tracking two systems, one named (Major Hurricane Teddy), and one still not yet a full-fledged TC (Invest 90L), that are forecast to impact both Bermuda and locations in the Gulf of Mexico, again, this week.

Closest to land, Invest 90L is very nearly a tropical cyclone today, and after some period of meandering about in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to turn toward the north, or northeast, and interests from Texas to western Florida may want to begin tracking it closely. Model support for strengthening is soft, but model support for the Invest that went on to become Sally was similarly light at this stage in that future cyclone's development as well.

On approach to a date with the British Overseas Territory of Bermuda is now Major Hurricane Teddy. Teddy is traveling through a favorable environment and has responded with more strengthening today, but could taper off a bit as it nears Bermuda late this weekend or very early next week, when it crosses over less warm SSTs left in the wake of Paulette, which went right over Bermuda in the predawn hours Monday, just three days ago.

In the far eastern Atlantic we are keeping an eye out on a wave, Invest 98L, that has about a 50/50 shot at development as it tracks generally west-northwest.

Elsewhere, a transitional non-tropical low with some tropical characteristics is approaching western Europe, with 30% NHC odds of becoming a sub-tropical or tropical cyclone before it makes landfall on or around Portugal late Friday. And a little bit east from there Europe is tracking Medicane Ianos, which could become one of the strongest Medicanes on record before it makes landfall on Greece later Friday or Saturday. Modeling suggests pressures getting down to about 980mb. Fitting to have a TC set to make landfall on Greece right about the time we have to turn to the Greek alphabet to begin naming our own. Very 2020.

Beta Event Related Links

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Invest 90L Forecast Lounge

Teddy Event Related Links

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Alpha Event Related Links

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NRL Info on Alpha -- RAMMB Info
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Wilfred Event Related Links

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Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Wilfred
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NRL Info on Wilfred -- RAMMB Info
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Bermuda and the Gulf

Posted: 11:07 AM 12 September 2020 | 9 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 02:49 AM 16-Sep EDT

1:30AM CDT 16 September 2020 Update
Sally is now a still-intensifying 105 MPH Cat 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Also, Teddy has rapidly jumped from Tropical Storm to an 85 MPH Hurricane Teddy. Teddy may become Bermuda's second direct hit this season, even stronger than Paulette, as a Major. Speaking of Major Hurricanes, there is a moderate to high chance that Sally becomes a Major hurricane by sunrise.
NHC
Quote:

Hurricane Sally Special Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
130 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...SALLY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREAD ONSHORE THE GULF COAST FROM PENSACOLA BEACH FLORIDA WESTWARD TO DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA...
...HISTORIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 130 AM CDT...0630 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 87.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from the Mouth of the
Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* East of Bay St. Louis Mississippi to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida to Indian Pass Florida
* Bay St. Louis Mississippi westward to Grand Isle Louisiana



-Ciel

11:30PM CDT 15 September 2020 Update
Technical note, Sally's advisory in the Current Storms bar is not updating and so please disregard.

Sally is now likely a Cat 2 and may have some regions of gusts into Cat 3 (in gusts). Still strengthening.

Epic flooding underway. NWS Mobile, Al just reported **OVER 16 INCHES** so far and counting.

Efforts to protect life and property should have already been completed, and in the evac zones one should only be on the road if clearly safe to do so and heading for higher ground pronto. It may already be too late, and loss of property and life in this hurricane could be much higher than feared with many disregarding it for 'only being Cat 1.'
-Ciel


7:45PM CDT 15 September 2020 Update
Sally is strengthening into landfall, with both pressure lowering, and with more parts of the now expansive wind field hitting Category 1 force, with indications that gusts to Cat 2 may becoming somewhat widespread in the northeast quadrant. Additionally, mini-supercells within the banding are starting to spin waterspouts and as these travel further onto land, tornadoes.

But the wind and tornado threat as bad as they are, Sally's calling card is most likely to be her flooding, both storm surge, and inland flooding. As examples, rivers may back up due to the combination of surge from the south, and runoff from everywhere else, then spill out over towns and roads to become storm-made lakes suddenly appearing seemingly out of nowhere, etc. The surge susceptible northeast Gulf will likely see some places with water reaching very dangerous and life-threatening levels, etc.

Update Watches, Warnings and Discussions

WPC:
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING, POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING, IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING TRACK OF HURRICANE SALLY...
*Weather conditions indicate that significant flooding can be expected during the outlook period.
* The latest forecast storm total rainfall from Sally calls for 10 to 20+ inches of rain from far southeastern Mississippi to the western Florida Panhandle, with 4 to 8 inches (and locally higher amounts) farther inland along the track through the Southeast U.S.

NHC:
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...HISTORIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * East of Bay St. Louis Mississippi to Navarre Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida * Bay St. Louis Mississippi westward to Grand Isle Louisiana

SPC:
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch for portions of a small part of southwest Alabama and much of the Florida Panhandle Coastal Waters. Effective this Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning from 550 PM until 600 AM CDT.
-Ciel


6:45AM CDT 15 September 2020 Update
Hurricane Sally, after a quick intensification run yesterday, has leveled off and weakened slightly back to an 85MPH category 1 hurricane.

It may make be making another strengthening run this morning, but the time for that is short as shear may be picking up as it moves slowly toward land and will likely be on a weakening trend then. However, surge and ultra flooding rainfall are already a problem in certain areas along the GUlf coast, and the rain likely won't stop all day in areas it has started, particularly from about Destin, FL to Gulfport, MS. Areas east of there will get lots of banding rain, but not as frequently. Flooding likely will be historic for the area. Landfall isn't even forecast until late Wednesday morning.

The hurricane warning now is from East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Navarre Florida

3:30AM CDT 15 September 2020 Update

Right now all eyes are rightly focused on the northern Gulf of Mexico with Hurricane Sally. However, while we are in the middle of track intermission as the cyclone is pulling up to a crawl and maybe even a stall, it is worth pointing out that 2020 is also presently extremely active in the rest of the Atlantic basin - and even the Mediterranean basin! (which in many ways is sort of an extension of the Atlantic at this time of year).

2020 is a hyperactive season. We are on the cusp of entering the Greek alphabet, and sooner than we did in '05. Now is a perfect time to recheck and update preps - even those not in the path of Sally - as it looks like the season is nowhere near wrapping up just yet.
-Ciel

10:00PM CDT 14 September 2020 Update
Hurricane Sally has slowed strengthening (at least for now) as a 100mph hurricane and is moving extremely slowly to the west northwest. This makes the track very difficult to pinpoint as it may drift east or west for unknown periods of time.
Basically, from the NHC, There continues to be a significant amount of uncertainty on exactly where and when Sally turns northward and makes landfall, with model solutions ranging from a landfall on the Florida panhandle to a landfall in extreme southeastern Louisiana. It should be emphasized that it is always challenging to forecast the track of hurricanes in weak steering currents, and in Sally's case the weak steering is occurring very near land.

There is a chance Sally could have another strenghtening run before landfall, so be aware, but somewhere between about 12-24 hours shear will likely start to pick up to hold off any further intensification.. Surge and rainfall will be a large problem, so far the bands have slipped onto parts of the Panhandle and Alabama and will expand further west and more inland over time tomorrow.

The Hurricane Warning west of Grand Isle to Morgan City, Louisiana, has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. But The Hurricane warning remains up east of Grand isle to the Florida/Alabama border.

Surge estimates have shifted east from 6-9 feet across most of Missisippi and Mobile bay, and 4-7 feet east toward Pensacola.


3:00PM EDT 14 September 2020 Update
The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. It goes without saying that 2020 is a record-setting, hyperactive year. Just how record-setting and hyperactive? Here are a few tidbits.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on five tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin, tying the record for the most number of tracked TCs there at one time, for the first time since September 1971.

We now have Vicky. We've only had a "V" storm one other time. Vince, of 2005. Of October, 2005. Vicky is also the earliest 20th Atlantic named storm. The prior record was held when Tammy was named on October 5, 2005. (There was a previously unnamed storm identified post-season in 2005 between Stan and Tammy).

Sally will now likely make landfall as a hurricane. This would be the 4th hurricane landfall this year, and potentially as a Major. The most recent year with 4 or more US hurricane landfalls was 2005, with a total of 5 that year.

Sally has become the 4th hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico this season. Only 5 other years in the official record have had four or more GOM hurricanes by this date. Those years were 1886, 1933, 1936, 2005 and 2017.

Sally has become the 7th hurricane of 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Only six other years in the official record have had seven or more hurricanes by this date. Those years were 1886, 1893, 1933, 1995, 2005, and 2012.


Sources: Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Dr. Marshall Shepherd, NHC
-Ciel

12:00PM EDT 14 September 2020 Update

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT SALLY HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED TO A HURRICANE...

7:00AM EDT 14 September 2020 Update
Busy in the tropics, Tropical Storm Teddy has formed in the east Atlantic, Hurricane Paulette is over Bermuda, Tropical Depression 21 has formed.off the coast of Africa, and Rene is still holding on as a tropical Depression, and Sally...

The organization of Sally hasn't changed much during the overnight as thought judging by the convection burst that started last night, based on recon flights it did not translate into any intensification this time. It also shifted a bit west, that said the current forecast track looks fairly good, slow movement, category 1 or 2 hurricane landfall and shortly after (or just during) landfall the storm is expected to weaken quickly. The flooding rains and surge will likely be the biggest impact, although short lived tornadoes and cat 1/2 wind damage is still likely in some airs.

The system is expected to move very slowly toward Southeast Louisiana then curve slowly northward into coastal Mississippi, with very heavy rains at times, especially near the center. Most of the rain is currently offshore except for bands right near Panama City, FL, they will become more and more frequent into Tuesday Evening.

Storm surge flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. Rainfall will likely be 8 to 24 inches in various areas depending on the exact path of the storm.



Hurricane Paulette is has moved directly over Bermuda and most of the island is currently within the eye.

11:30AM EDT 13 September 2020 Update
Sally is now a strengthening 60mph Tropical Storm, Hurricane Warnings are up for much of Southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi.

Changes now, the Hurricane Warning along the coast of Louisiana has been extended westward to Morgan City.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Louisiana from west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City.

Today will be the last full day to prepare in the area. Please listen to local media

Storm Surge is forecast to be between 4-11 feet ins parts of SE Lousiana, and 4-7 in Mississippi, depending on the exact angle of approach of the system.

3:30PM EDT 12 September 2020 Update
TD19 is now Tropical Storm Sally. Additional Watches/Warnings may be issued at 5PM.

Original Update
Tropical Depression 19 is affecting the Florida Keys and South Florida right now, and is currently over the everglades and expected to move into the Gulf later today. The forecast now calls for a hurricane at landfall in the northern gulf, and hurricane and storm surge watches may be issued for areas in the cone later today.

There is some potential for this system to develop to be even stronger than currently forecast before reaching the northern Gulf, so please pay attention to updates surrounding it and listen to local media and officials for any information specific to your area. Or look at the Local Storm Statements from your local national weather service office.

One interesting bit to note, the track direction is one that has high surge potential for those to the right of landfall as it gives longer periods of onshore winds than a typical track to the north Gulf. So look for high potential for surge flooding along a wider area.

Right now only a Tropical Storm watch is up for Ochlockonee River to Okaloosa/Walton County Line

Recon is scheduled to investigate TD19 in a few hours. If it gets named, which is likely today, it will be Sally.

Hurricane Warnings are now up for Bermuda from Paulette, now forecast to be a category 2 when near Bermuda.
Sally Event Related Links

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NRL Info on Sally -- RAMMB Info
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Model analysis, discussion and more in the Hurricane Sally Forecast Lounge

Paulette Event Related Links

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Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Paulette
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Rene Event Related Links

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Clark Evans Track Plot of Rene

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NRL Info on Rene -- RAMMB Info
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Teddy Event Related Links

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Clark Evans Track Plot of Teddy

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Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Teddy
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NRL Info on Teddy -- RAMMB Info
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Vicky Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Vicky - New for 2018


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Clark Evans Track Plot of Vicky

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Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Vicky
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Vicky -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

Model analysis, discussion and more in the 95L Forecast Lounge

North Gulf Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Lake Charles, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA - Houston/Galveston, TX

Keys Webcams

Bermuda Newspapers/Media:

BerNews

Royal Gazette (Bermuda)

Bermuda Sun

Hott 107.5 Bermuda Radio

Storm Carib Bermuda Reports

Bermuda Weather Service

Mississippi/Alabama Gulf Coast Media/Links

WLOX TV 13 (ABC) Biloxi

WXXV TV 25 (Fox)Biloxi

WKRG TV 5 (CBS) Mobile

WPMI TV 15 (NBC) Mobile

WALA TV 10 (Fox) Mobile

WEAR TV 3 (ABC) Pensacola, FL

Newspapers

Mobile Register (Al.com) paper

Biloxi Sun Herald paper

Gulf Live

Radio (some)

News Talk 104.9 Biloxi, MS (Radio)

News talk 106.5 Mobile, AL (Radio)

Power Outage

Mississippi Power Outage Map

Alabama Power Outage Map

Invest 98L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 98L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 98L


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Clark Evans Track Plot of 98L

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Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Invest 99L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 99L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L


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Clark Evans Track Plot of 99L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Invest 90L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 90L - New for 2018


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Clark Evans Track Plot of 90L

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Invest 90L Forecast Lounge

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High Activity Low Impact

Posted: 10:55 AM 09 September 2020 | 3 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 02:57 PM 10-Sep EDT

5PM EDT Update 11 September 2020
Tropical Depression 19 forms near the Bahamas. Tropical storm watch up south of Jupiter Inlet, to N. of Ocean Reef.

11:55 AM EDT Update 11 September 2020
The area east of the Bahamas (Invest 96L) now has a 70% chance to develop, and a 60% chance to develop within the next 48 hours. Those in the Keys and South Florida should watch, although it is likely to be just a heavy rain maker. Those in the Central North Gulf (LA to FL panhandle) need to watch it closely as it may decide to get its act together more quickly than previously anticipated.

Paulette should be closely monitored by those in Bermuda.

The first wave in the east Atlantic (95L) has a 90% chance to develop over the next 5 days, those in the eastern Caribbean will want to monitor it, but it's looking more likely it will stay out to sea once beyond there.

The last area in the east Atlantic has a 40% chance to
develop, and probably will remain out to sea also.

9:30 AM EDT Update 10 September 2020

7 areas are being watched right now in the Tropics. 2 Storms, Paulette and Rene. Paulette should be watched by Bermuda. Long term the "red" area should be watched by the Caribbean as it has the best chance out of all of them for some sort of impact and has a 90% chance for development. The 3 near the US all are low chance, in fact the one near North Carolina is at 0%, only mentioned to indicate that it won't develop, but may cause some rain.

The areas in the Gulf are 30 and 20%, the one east of the Bahamas does not look like it will have any changce to develop before moving over Florida, but should up the rain chances in Florida over the weekend. These two Gulf systems are mentioned because September and October are notorious for spinning up quick systems in the Gulf that go under the radar. They are unlikely to develop, but the chance is still there, so they should be watched.

Yet another wave coming off Africa has a 40% chance to develop.

In short, high activity, low impact currently, but the situation could change. The ones in the Gulf should be watched because of how close they are, but are still unlikely to develop, and the 90% (Red) area has the highest chances of impact down the road. Paulette should be watched closely by those in Bermuda as it is in the cone, and possibly may be a hurricane when it is near there.

9:45 PM EDT Update 9 September 2020

Extremely active tropics, but no immediate threats, with two ones close enough to monitor for changes and one storm (Paulette) that Bermuda needs to watch closely.

Including an area just east of the Bahamas that has a 20% chance to develop after it moves over Florida (probably bringing enhanced rain to Florida over the weekend) but the proximity and travel over the Gulf stream make this one at least worth paying attention to later in the Gulf.

The area off the coast of the Carolinas only has a 20% chance to develop, and may bring some rain to the Carolinas. Those there should watch for any changes, but not much is expected.

Paulette is likely to remain out to sea, but may come close or near Bermuda, so those there should continue to watch it.

Rene should remain out to sea.

Two areas east of Rene, one has a 90% chance to develop, and of the batch, most likely to need watching later, but it still has a long way to determine that.

The last area is moving off Africa, but only has a 20% chance to develop currently,.

Original Update

Paulette and Rene are still there, but should be no further impact to land. Bermuda may want to watch Paulette if it creeps toward there.

The area off the coast of the Carolinas (94L)'s development chances are dropping, and likely will not develop, but it still has a 30% chance to develop. This is most likely just going to be a Rain maker, but folks should watch it in case anything changes.

The area moving off the coast of Africa has an 80% chance to develop, but low impact potential as it too is most likely going out to sea, but there is time to watch this if it changes. Particularly Bermuda.

We'll be monitoring the tropics, as things can change quickly, but there is nothing too concerning at the moment.

Paulette Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Paulette - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Paulette


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Paulette (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Paulette (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Paulette

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Paulette
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Paulette -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Rene Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Rene - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Rene


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float18latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Rene (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Rene (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Rene

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Rene
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Rene -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Invest 95L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 95L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 95L


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 95L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 95L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 95L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 95L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

Model analysis, discussion and more in the 95L Forecast Lounge

Tropical Depression 19 Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of TD19 - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD19


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD19 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD19 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD19

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD19
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD19 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

Model analysis, discussion and more in the 96L Forecast Lounge

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

North Gulf Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Lake Charles, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA - Houston/Galveston, TX

Keys Webcams




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Within Hours of Laura's Landfall

Posted: 04:11 AM 26 August 2020 | 4 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 10:32 AM 26-Aug EDT

7:00AM CDT 28 August 2020 Update
Laura made landfall in Cameron around 1AM on August 27th as a cat 4, shear was impacting it as it made landfall, so it was a hurricane weakening at landfall, however, it had built up quite quickly before it reached the peak only several hours before landfall. Storm surge along the coast seemed to be 9-13 feet near Cameron, and a bit higher just east of Cameron (Creole) in the area of the eyewall that had straight north winds, in that section (mostly unpopulated, the surge reached over 15ft) highest recorded was near Grand Chenieer around 15ft..

The storm rapidly weakened once over land, and brought a lot of water and wind damage through Lake Charles and some north, it will be a bit before the damage extent is well known because of how much was knocked out in the area. It was significant in spots. Unlike Michael, the last major hurricane to strike the US, this one had reached its peak before landfall. Michael was still ramping up at landfall so the inland impacts were further in. Laura still did have a good impact inland as well, but it dropped off much more quickly.

The recovery effort in and well around Lake Charles is going to take some time, and many areas within the region probably have been changed forever. Towns such as Cameron, and Holly Beach, may never be the same after it. A lot of those were hit by Rita, and this was more powerful than Rita. Some of the newer structures were built better/higher after Rita, but even some of those did not survive Laura. The impact west of the landfall point fell off much more quickly.

12:40AM CDT 27 August 2020 Update
Laura is making landfall. There are academic arguments that it is now borderline Cat 5. The damage and surge is becoming extreme, and many lives may be lost over the next several days.

1PM CDT 26 August 2020 Update
Laura is now a category 4 hurricane headed to the TX/LA border.

11AM CDT 26 August 2020 Update
Key messages for Laura
Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.
This surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline. Only a few hours remain to protect life and property and all actions should be rushed to completion.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected tonight in portions of the hurricane warning area from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, with catastrophic wind damage expected where Lauras eyewall makes landfall. Hurricane-force winds and widespread damaging wind gusts will spread well inland across portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday.

3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and roadways is expected to begin this afternoon into Thursday from far eastern Texas, across Louisiana and Arkansas. This will also lead to minor to isolated moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat and localized flash and urban flooding potential will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Friday night and Saturday.

6AM CDT 26 August 2020 Update
Hurricane Laura is now a Major Category 3 Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, and is expected to make landfall as a Category 4 storm near the Texas/Louisiana border overnight. Laura is a fast moving hurricane, so effects may be felt way inland on the track as well.

Laura is a large system and storm surge will be extremely high in some places near and to the east of the point of landfall. Any preparations in the warning area, particularly near the TX/LA border, need to be finished soon, as conditions will start to deteriorate this afternoon.

Beyond landfall, the fast movement likely will cause significant damage in Arkansas, and more spotty or narrower damage throughout parts of TN, KY, VA, NC, and WV as it moves rapidly toward the east. It'll be much weaker by then, but probably still chaotic enough to spawn tornadoes and wind damage all the way over.

Original Update


Above: Tiny-eyed Cat 2 Hurricane Laura undergoing Rapid Intensification Predawn Aug 26, 2020

Predawn on the day Laura is to begin her landfall approach along the northwest Gulf of Mexico and Rapid Intensification is underway. Hurricane Laura is now, already, a 105 MPH Cat 2 hurricane as of 1AM CDT Wednesday August, 26, and the risk of additional strengthening will continue all the way up to and possibly into landfall. Thus while NHC is now explicitly forecasting Laura to become a large and very dangerous Cat 3 Major Hurricane before landfall, it is not at all out of the question that she bests that by at least one more category, and preparations for life-threatening impacts and catastrophic damage should be rushed to completion.

Hurricane Laura is in a rare league of tropical cyclones to affect the United States. Retired tropical cyclones are often remembered for decades to come for having one particularly horrendous Feature: Michael - first US Cat 5 landfall since Andrew in 1992, Event: Katrina - NOLA flooding, or Outcome: Harvey - historic, widespread southeast Texas flooding.

This is not to say that there weren't countless other awesome things associated with each of them, but if you were to ask 100 people on the street what they think of most when they think of a certain retired storm, the answers often bring up one horrendous feature, event, or outcome.

Laura may leave one such indelible image in the form of storm surge. Laura's storm surge could travel 30 miles inland from the coastline in far southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana, and may reach more than one full story high above normally dry ground in places.

But this is not to take away from the other hazards Laura will unleash: Tornado-intensity winds, numerous actual waterspouts and inland tornadoes, inland flooding, etc.

The forecast track reasoning from NHC remains about the same. Laura is expected to make landfall somewhere between the upper Texas coast - now probably to the right of Galveston, and western Louisiana - most probably west of New Iberia. Internal changes resulting in wobbles, or some zig-zagging as steering currents compete, could make the ultimate center of landfall uncertain, but potentially catastrophic impacts will occur up to many tens of miles from the very center, regardless.


Laura Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Laura - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Laura


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Laura (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Laura (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Laura

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Laura
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Laura -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


North Gulf Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Lake Charles, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA - Houston/Galveston, TX

>

    • Lake Charles, LA Area Media and Information
  • kplctv 7 NBC Lake Charles

    Fox 29 Lake Charles

    American Press Newspaper Lake Charles

    Houston/Galveston Related Links:

    Texas Emergency Management

    Galveston area Storm Surge Map (pdf)

    Webcams:

    Surfside Beach Jetty Cam

    Octogon View (Surfside Beach, TX)

    Matagoria Beach Webcam

    North TextVisual WebCam summary Page from HurricaneCity,com

    Corpus Christi city Webcams

    Media:

    Houston Area:

    Click2Houston/Local 2

    KHOU

    Galveston County The Daily News

    chron.com

    ABC13 KTRK

    Houston Press

    Corpus Christi:

    KRIS NBC 6

    KIII TV 3 ABC

    MZTV 10 CBS

    Corpus Christi Caller Times Paper

    Power:

    Center Point Energy Power Outages (Houston Area)

    AEP Texas Outage map



    Paulette Event Related Links

    Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Paulette - New for 2018


    Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Paulette


    stormplotthumb_17.gif

    SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


    float17latest.gif
    Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Paulette (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
    Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Paulette (Animated!)

    Clark Evans Track Plot of Paulette

    Other Model Charts from Clark

    Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Paulette
    More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
    NRL Info on Paulette -- RAMMB Info
    COD Atlantic Satellite View


    Rene Event Related Links

    Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Rene - New for 2018


    Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Rene


    stormplotthumb_18.gif

    SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


    float18latest.gif
    Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Rene (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
    Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Rene (Animated!)

    Clark Evans Track Plot of Rene

    Other Model Charts from Clark

    Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Rene
    More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
    NRL Info on Rene -- RAMMB Info
    COD Atlantic Satellite View


    Invest 94L Event Related Links

    Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 94L - New for 2018


    Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L


    stormplotthumb_19.gif

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    Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
    Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)

    Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L

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    COD Atlantic Satellite View

    Article Icon

    Laura in the Gulf of Mexico

    Posted: 07:14 AM 25 August 2020 | 2 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 08:29 AM 25-Aug EDT

    8:15AM EDT 25 August 2020 Update
    NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that Laura has become a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75mph.

    Original Update
    Laura is now forecast to become a major hurricane before landfall, and the Hurricane warnings have been extended west to San Luis Pass, which includes Galveston and the Houston area and extends east to Morgan City Louisiana. Storm Surge watches are up from San Luis Pass Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi.

    Laura is very close to becoming a hurricane and probably will do so by 11AM EDT. The forecast shows 115mph winds, but it is possible for Laura to strengthen more. Those in the watch area probably should prepare for 1 category higher than projected and hope for the best, as the trend is toward a stronger system, not weaker. For the watch areas, this means prepare for a potential category 4 storm. Storm surge along the coast will likely be a big problem at and well to the right of the landfall point.

    Those in the watch areas please listen to local media and officials for more information in your area.

    Further adjustments to the track are possible later today.

    Also, Marco's last advisory has been issued and is out of the picture.

    Laura Event Related Links

    Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Laura - New for 2018


    Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Laura


    stormplotthumb_13.gif

    SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


    float13latest.gif
    Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Laura (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
    Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Laura (Animated!)

    Clark Evans Track Plot of Laura

    Other Model Charts from Clark

    Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Laura
    More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
    NRL Info on Laura -- RAMMB Info
    COD Atlantic Satellite View


    North Gulf Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

    Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

    New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

    Lake Charles, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

    Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

    Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

    Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA - Houston/Galveston, TX

    >

    • Lake Charles, LA Area Media and Information
  • kplctv 7 NBC Lake Charles

    Fox 29 Lake Charles

    American Press Newspaper Lake Charles

    Houston/Galveston Related Links:

    Texas Emergency Management

    Galveston area Storm Surge Map (pdf)

    Webcams:

    Surfside Beach Jetty Cam

    Octogon View (Surfside Beach, TX)

    Matagoria Beach Webcam

    North TextVisual WebCam summary Page from HurricaneCity,com

    Corpus Christi city Webcams

    Media:

    Houston Area:

    Click2Houston/Local 2

    KHOU

    Galveston County The Daily News

    chron.com

    ABC13 KTRK

    Houston Press

    Corpus Christi:

    KRIS NBC 6

    KIII TV 3 ABC

    MZTV 10 CBS

    Corpus Christi Caller Times Paper

    Power:

    Center Point Energy Power Outages (Houston Area)

    AEP Texas Outage map

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