AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 358 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... SFC HI PRES WILL REMAIN RIGHT OVR THE AREA TNGT...PROVIDING MORE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. UNDR A CLR TO PRTLY CLDY SKY...MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF MDLS FOR THE FCST FM THU THRU SAT. THESE TWO MDLS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVRALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGE...WITH THE UPR RDG SLOWLY SHIFTING EWRD ACRS THE REGION AND OFF THE CST...WHILE UPR/SFC LO PRES MOVES FM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWRD INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCRS IN LO LVL MOIST (DWPTS) AND THUS CLDS...AND THE CHC FOR SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS FM FRI THRU SAT. THE BEST CHCS FOR SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE OVR THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA FRI AFTN/NGT...THEN DECENT CHCS EVERYWHERE ON SAT AS DEEPER MOIST/BETTER LIFT OVRSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION. MAX TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 60S TO UPR 70S THU THRU SAT...WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 50S THU NGT...AND IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 FRI NGT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DROP FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF A WET PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING AND ORGANIZATION (SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDER VERSUS PRIMARILY THUNDERSTORMS) AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT DETAILS...SO 30 TO 40 POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVERHEAD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES. LIGHT SE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS OR BRIEF SHALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP THU MORNING. A SCT CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP THU AFTERNOON WITH 5-8 KT E WINDS. A SIMILAR SITUATION SETS UP FOR FRIDAY MORNING. WITH BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION ON FRI...EXPECT A CHANCE FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND SWELL WITH SEAS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 5FT THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TURNING THE WIND TO SE. SEAS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5FT INTO THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT IS MAINTAINED IN THE WIND FIELD. THE CURRENT SCA WAS EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. && .TIDES... TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL RISE TO AND AVERAGE AROUND 1 TO 1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW HIGH TIDE CYCLES. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CURRENT FORECAST VALUES COULD PUSH LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR FLOODING. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT AT THIS POINT...BUT A FUTURE ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG