AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 752 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...THEN FINALLY PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT...POTENTIALLY STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MAKING ITS FINAL PUSH SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS TRAILING THE SURFACE FRONT...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE LIFT/UPPER DIVERGENCE AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING A SUFFICIENTLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE AND PWATS AROUND 2.00 TO 2.50 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN IMPACTS. STRONGER STORM CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND ALONG SMALL STREAMS. HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS APPROXIMATELY FROM FLUVANNA COUNTY EAST TO THE NRN NECK AND INTO THE MD ERN SHORE. SAT...MODELS (PARTICULARLY THE GFS) ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE DRYING TRENDS N-S. EVEN A NAM/SREF/ECMWF BLEND WOULD SUPPORT KEEPING BETTER THAN 50% POPS OVER S PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA (S OF THE VA/NC BORDER) INTO THE AFTN HOURS. HIGHS A BIT COOLER... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLC COAST (LOW-MID 80S). UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE FARTHER INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS...WITH THE RESULTANT EFFECT OF DRIER/WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...AND COOLER MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. RAIN CHCS REMAIN LOW...WITH LTL MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM CHC OVER NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND...M80S TO NR 90 AT IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES. EARLY MORNING LOWS FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST...TO NR 70 SE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CNTRD OVR THE SE U.S. MON NGT INTO TUE. A COLD FRNT WILL PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION TUE AFTN INTO WED MORNG. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HI PRES WILL BLD BACK IN FM THE NNE FOR LATE WED THRU THU...THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST FOR THU NGT THRU FRI. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE MORNG...IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S WED MORNG...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 THU AND FRI MORNGS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 90S TUE...IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 WED...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S THU AND FRI. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A BAND OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR SBY TO RIC AND BEYOND. THIS AREA OF PCPN WILL MOVE TO THE SE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE PCPN BY SEVERAL HOURS AND EXTEND PERIODS OF PCPN AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES WELL INTO THE NIGHT...AND INTO THE MRNG HOURS OVER SE PORTIONS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO AREAS OF STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG SATURDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR LATER UPDATES. CONDITIONS DRY OUT FROM N TO S ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS TURNING TO N AND THEN LATER TO NE/E SAT AFTN. OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR LATER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A CHC FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTMS RETURNS FOR TUE AND POSSIBLY WED. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM TNGT THRU SUN. A FRNTL BNDRY WITH AREAS OF LO PRES MOVNG ALNG IT...WILL PUSH ACRS THE AREA TNGT THRU SAT. HI PRES WILL BLD BY TO OUR NNE AND OFF THE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU MON. ANOTHER COLD FRNT WILL DROP INTO AND ACRS THE REGION TUE AFTN INTO WED MORNG. EXPECT WND SPDS/WAVES/SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS THRU THE PERIOD. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MDZ021>025. NC...NONE. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR VAZ048-049- 062>064-074>077. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BKH