AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1133 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2012 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...TAFS ARE STABILIZING NOW WITH IFR CEILINGS...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT RAIN WILL HAVE A LIMITED EFFECT ON VISIBILITY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT GRADIENT AND MODERATE TO BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2012/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM BRO TO PIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVE EAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL TROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS...MAINLY MVFR OR POSSIBLE IFR CEILING CONDITIONS...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE ADDED TEMPO TO BRO FOR LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS AND TO HRL FOR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2012/ .ABBREVIATED FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM SULLIVAN CITY TO RED GATE TO ARMSTRONG AT 20Z. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER. THE MAIN THREATS FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH. THE LATEST 20Z LAPS INDICATE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE IN HIDALGO AND WILLACY COUNTIES AND CAPE VALUES OF 2100 TO 3000 J/K ACROSS CAMERON COUNTY. SO AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT AS ZAPATA AND HEBBRONVILLE ARE IN THE MID 50S NOW. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE UPPER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS THIS EVENING OFF THE TEXAS LOWER COAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN AN INCREASE LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR STEADY AND NOT EXPECTING TO GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S DUE TO THE DEEP CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 25 MPH ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. MARINE... TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BUOY 020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 4 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 FEET AT 19Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN MARINE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BY THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT RESULTING IN ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY EARLY EVENING. NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTH WEST GULF. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON ON SUNDAY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THROUGH 6 PM FOR THE GULF WATERS 0 TO 60 NM EAST OF PADRE ISLAND. SEAS WILL BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...REACHING THE 8 TO 10 FOOT RANGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ130- 132-135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170- 175. && $$