AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1221 AM CDT MON APR 18 2011

.DISCUSSION...SEE BELOW FOR THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR
THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY AREAS OF STRATUS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL GIVE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THAT WILL BE
LOCATED AROUND OR BELOW 2 KFT THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE MOVE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
BY AROUND 09-10Z. WILL NOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AS WELL.
THIS STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER AND LIFT AFTER
SUNRISE...ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES BY
AROUND LUNCHTIME. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS BETWEEN 10-15
KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS DURING THE
DAYTIME WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD LET UP SOMEWHAT
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2011/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE AND GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS.
THE LOWER CONDITION IS DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS. THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
THE CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO MVFR
AND TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS. SOME HAZE MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL
BECOME MODERATE AND GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH ON MONDAY
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE
CWA. VFR TO MVFR AND TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 208 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2011/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...ONSHORE FLOW HAS BEGUN
TO RETURN GULF MOISTURE TO THE VALLEY TODAY...NOTED BY THICKER CLOUD
COVER. CLOUDS COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REACH THE LOW 70S.
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TOMORROW...AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN EASTERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A
FEW MORE DEGREES TOMORROW...REACHING NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST
AND NEARING 100 IN ZAPATA COUNTY. CONTINUED MOISTURE RETURN AND LOW
CAP COULD BRING SOME FOG TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MAY BE
TEMPERED BY NON-CALM WINDS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN
THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD WILL HAVE A PRETTY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
OF WEST TO EAST MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGHS DOMINATING. FURTHER SOUTH
OVER THE GULF COAST AND THE GULF OF MEX A QUIETER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL AS MID LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS HERE. MODEL TO
MODEL CONSISTENCY IS PRETTY GOOD THROUGH DAY 7 AND RUN TO RUN
STABILITY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS TEMPS AND POPS ARE PRETTY STEADY.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GO A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE AS THE CURRENT
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF THE DAILY
DIURNAL EFFECTS FOR HIGH TEMPS CONSIDERING THE WIDESPREAD DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE REGION. WILL GO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS SOME NOCTURNAL MIXING HELPS BREEZY CONDITIONS
ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA...STAYING MAINLY IN THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE. WINDS OVER
LAND WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS TOMORROW...WITH SOME OF THAT
BREEZINESS BLEEDING OVER ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORIES FOR TOMORROW. BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN
OFFSHORE TOMORROW NIGHT...KEEPING SEAS STABLE AT 4 TO 5 FEET. IN
THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW PATTERN
WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF ACROSS THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE LIKELY REQUIRING SOME SCAS LATE IN THE CWF PERIOD.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$