AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
145 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 2: BASED ON OBS TEMPS OF UPPER 40S TO ARND 50 DEG FROM
COOP SITES OVR NW PTNS OF THE FA...WE LOWERED FCST LOW TEMPS FOR
ERLY THIS MORN A FEW DEGREES TO MID 40S. OTHERWISE...WE LOWERED
WINDS IN VLYS TO NEAR CALM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NGT AND
CONFINED PATCHY FOG TO RVR VLYS FOR E CNTRL ZONES NWRD.

UPDATE 1: INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE. ALSO MADE MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BASED
ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION: THE SMALL DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WILL SLIDE EAST OF
THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS WILL ALLOW
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SUPPORTING
ONE SMALL LOW TO OUR NORTH AND ANOTHER SMALL LOW OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL APPROACH LATE FRIDAY. SKIES WILL BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY
FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATE FRIDAY FROM WEST
TO EAST. HOWEVER...THE AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES TO THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY...WHILE
THE LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING
THE EXACT TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE LOW SATURDAY AND THE AMOUNT OF
RAIN THE LOW COULD BRING TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ALONG THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LITTLE CALM WEATHER SHOULD BE IN STORE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE TO MAKE IT THROUGH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT
SWITCHING SURFACE WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THAT WILL
PROMOTE WARM AND MOIST AIR TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS A DECENT LEAD SHORT
WAVE MOVING MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES AT FACE VALUE ARE NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER OTHER FACTORS COULD CHANGE AND IMPROVE THE
CAPE VALUES AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED ON FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES TO BETTER NAIL DOWN THE
POSSIBILITIES WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM. HAVE ADDED HIGH CHANCE
TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.
TUESDAY LOOKS FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY NIGHT A STRONG HIGH MOVES IN AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. USED
A BLEND OF MOS AND MEN GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. FOR ALL OTHER
ELEMENTS USED GMOS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS
THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS OVERNIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS EARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS SUNDAY. EXPECT MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD BE
REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN