AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1015 PM CDT MON APR 18 2011 .DISCUSSION...SLIGHTLY BREEZY EVENING THUS FAR DUE TO LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. H925 LLJ WILL BE NEAR 45 KNOTS OVERNIGHT IF IT IS NOT ALREADY. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS...RAISING SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO IMPACT THE ZFP. OVER TH WATERS...WINDS HAVE COME DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF THE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT AND THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO OBS IN SCA RANGE. EXTREMELY STABLE 0-1 KM LAPSE RATES ASSOC W/ THE STRONG CAP (NOW NEGATIVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS) ARE STRONGLY LIMITING MIXING AND THUS NOT SEEING THE NOCTURNAL WIND MAX DEVELOP. MARINE MOS TYPICALLY SIGNIFICANTLY OVER-FORECASTS WIND SPEEDS IN SUCH EXTREME CASES WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE MUCH LOWER THAN CLIMO. TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD WINDS DECREASING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. ALL THIS SEEMS TO GIVE CREDENCE TO NAM12 AND GEM WINDS WHICH KEEP WIND SPEEDS IN CAUTION RANGES AND AM STRONGLY CONSIDERING DROPPING THE ADVISORY ONCE I GET A LOOK AT 3Z OBS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT MON APR 18 2011/ DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW. AVIATION...THE MAIN ISSUE FOR AVIATION WILL BE THE WINDS. GUSTY SFC WINDS ACROSS THE E HALF OF S TX WILL DECREASE TO 10-15KT OVRNIGHT. A NOCTURNAL JET IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO 45-50KT LEADING TO LLWS CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. THEN SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25-30KTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THEN A MVFR STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO DVLP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE E HALF OF S TX. AT TIMES THE CIG MAY DROP TO IFR...AROUND BKN008...HOWEVER AM EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS TO BE BRIEF THEREFORE AM ONLY GOING WITH SCT008 AND BKN015 FOR THE ALI...CRP...AND VCT TAF SITES. LRD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON APR 18 2011/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS COMBINING WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO CONTINUE A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL BEND. ONSHORE FLOW WAS INCREASING MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A SIGNIFICANT CAP...PRECLUDING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NEAR FUTURE. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THIS MOIST LAYER STRATIFIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROJECT A DRYLINE TO COME AS FAR EAST AS US281 TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG HEATING WEST OF THIS LINE PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 100S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. WITH VERY WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...THE DRYLINE IS NOT EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ANY PRECIPITATION THIS FAR SOUTH. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE AREAS. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN INTO THIS WEEKEND. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE SREF CONTINUES TO SHOW IT FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE LESS OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND COASTAL WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW RPESSURE WILL BE REORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHS PLAINS ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING. GFS/ECMWF SHOW A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THESE MODELS ALSO KEEP THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. WITH MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MEXICO...HEATING OVER THIS REGION ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THIS REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE DEEPER MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND COULD REACH FAR WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY LATE IN THE EVENING OR EARLY LATE NIGHT HOURS. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT CONVECTION FOR LAREDO AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. 89/TMT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 73 90 75 87 75 / 0 0 10 10 10 VICTORIA 71 91 73 87 72 / 0 0 10 10 10 LAREDO 76 106 76 104 77 / 0 0 10 10 10 ALICE 72 98 73 94 74 / 0 0 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 74 85 76 81 75 / 0 0 10 10 10 COTULLA 71 103 71 100 74 / 0 0 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 72 95 74 90 75 / 0 0 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 74 85 75 82 76 / 0 0 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM. && $$