AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1045 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011 .DISCUSSION...INCREASED POPS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST...AS CONVECTIVE LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. ALSO INCLUDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ZONES. WE SHALL HAVE TO SEE THE PROGRESS OF THE LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE POPS FOR TONIGHT...SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY UPDATES AFTER THIS AFTERNOON. NEW NAM IS KEEPING MOISTURE AROUND LONGER FOR FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WILL SEE WHAT THE NEW GFS HAS BUT FEELING STILL IS THAT DRIER AIR WILL TAKE OVER. PRODUCTS UPDATED. && .MARINE...INCLUDED SCEC FOR ALL MARINE INTERESTS DUE TO WINDS NEAR THE COAST AND SEAS OFFSHORE. EXTENDED HIGHER SEAS INTO TONIGHT. INCREASED POPS FOR OFFSHORE WATERS JUST A BIT. WILL WATCH WINDS AS RUC13/NAM12 SHOWING SCA WINDS OVER NEARSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. COULD HAPPEN ESPECIALLY IF RISE/FALL COUPLET DEVELOPS LATER TODAY BUT RATHER WAIT ON THAT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011/ DISCUSSION...PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR WATCH. INCREASED POPS AND QPF OVER THE AREA...AS CONVECTION LIKELY TO MAKE IT SOUTH. WILL UPDATE OTHER THINGS AS NEEDED...BUT FOR NOW THAT IS ALL THAT IS REQUIRED. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011/ DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...ALL TERMINALS WILL BE MVFR FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS THIS MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON (16Z TO 22Z). SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 AND LARGE HAIL. AVIATORS SHOULD BE AWARE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH CIGS AFTER 03Z LOWERING TO IFR LEVELS THROUGH 12Z. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...TSTMS QUICKLY COMMENCED NORTH OF DEL RIO THIS EARLY MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MIGRATED SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AND THEN INTO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY IN CONCERT WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET AND DECREASING CAP OVER THE FAR WEST BRUSH COUNTY LENDS TO ELEVATED CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS EARLY MORNING AND NW OF HIGHWAY 59 BY LATE MORNING AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO WEAK THETA-E RIDGE. HEIGHTENED CAPES (AROUND 3000 J/KG) COMBINED WITH LIMITED CIN DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS WITH SEVERE MENTIONED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. COUPLE OF MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN PRECIPICE OF THE CWA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 287 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FOR LASALLE COUNTY (15Z). FURTHER SE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...THE CAP STILL IS PRETTY STRONG BUT SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOW END CHANCE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF MID LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH CWA THIS EVENING WITH SOME LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE CWA AS ANOTHER WEAK VORT LOBE TRANSITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. LINGERING CONVECTION FROM THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHIFTS EAST. DRIER AIR WILL START FILTERING INTO THE THE AREA ON FRIDAY. GOOD MID LEVEL AND SLOWER LOW LEVEL DRYING OCCURS FRIDAY...AND ANY RESIDUAL RAINFALL WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING AS AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. WENT A TAD WARMER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE FRIDAY DUE TO THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT. LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TO EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH FORCES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z ON SATURDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE COASTAL BEND BY SATURDAY AND PROVIDE A WELCOME RELIEF TO THE HUMID CONDITIONS OF LATE. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WILL BE BELOW 30 PERCENT OVER THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER WEAK WINDS WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN US TROUGH ON MONDAY WILL REINFORCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS FOR LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND AS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A MORE NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND RESULTING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 85 76 92 67 87 / 80 40 10 10 0 VICTORIA 86 72 91 60 86 / 80 40 20 0 0 LAREDO 91 76 102 71 94 / 80 30 10 10 0 ALICE 89 74 96 65 90 / 70 40 10 10 0 ROCKPORT 84 75 89 67 84 / 70 40 10 10 0 COTULLA 88 73 95 64 91 / 90 30 10 0 0 KINGSVILLE 90 75 96 66 89 / 70 40 10 10 0 NAVY CORPUS 84 76 88 70 83 / 70 40 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$