AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
308 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN
PER WV SATELLITE MVG E TOWARD THE TX PANHANDLE. A SHORT WAVE IS
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW AND MVG TOWARD S TX. ALSO SEEN IN THE
WV SATELLITE IS A LINE OF DEEPER MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM A SHORT
WAVE MVG ACROSS N AND CENTRAL TX. THIS LINE OF MOISTURE EXTENDS
TOWARD DRT AND A STORM HAS DVLPD JUST S OF DRT ALONG THAT MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. AM EXPECTING AS THE AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MOVES
TOWARD THE NW CWA AND THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES...THAT CONVECTION
WILL DVLP AND MOVE INTO THE NW CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
CONVECTION WILL THEN SPREAD SE THEN E OVERNIGHT INTO THU. HAVE SHOWN
THIS TREND WITH THE HIGHER POPS SHIFTING FROM TO E TONIGHT THROUGH
THU...THEN DIMINISHING ACROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WILL BE REMOTE ACROSS THE W CWA TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASES THROUGH THU AS THE CIN DIMINISHES WITH COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. THE UPPER JET
CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SW OF TX WILL LIFT NE AND ACROSS S TX ON
THU. CAPE...LIFT...OMEGA VALUES ALL INCREASE AS WELL. THE ONLY
FACTOR THAT COULD LIMIT CONVECTION WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.
THE GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECREASE IN PWATS...DUE TO THE DRYING
IN THE MID LEVELS...HOWEVER THIS COULD INCREASE THE SVR THREAT WITH
DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL WILL BE THE OTHER THREAT. THE STORMS PREDICTION
CENTER DOES PLACE A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE NW CWA THRU TONIGHT AND A
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS ALL OF S TX FOR THU.

TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE EVENT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1/2 AN
INCH WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY GETTING AROUND AN INCH. FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE GROUND IS VERY DRY AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVG FAIRLY QUICKLY.

AS FOR TEMPS...WENT WITH PERSISTENCE TONIGHT...SLIGHTLY COOLER
THU/THU NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE/RAIN. THE WIND FCST WILL
BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY IN THAT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE WEAK TO MOD OUT OF THE SE. HOWEVER THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
DISRUPT THE FLOW WITH WINDS POSSIBLE SHIFTING TO THE NW BEHIND THE
LINE OF CONVECTION. REGARDLESS...WENT WITH THE GFS FOR WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ACROSS THE BAYS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE CAUTION
LEVELS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES AND ARE PROGD TO DECREASE TONIGHT.
THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA FOR THE SRN BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS. A WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH SCT SHRA`S/TSRA`S ON THU/THU NIGHT WILL
RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND CHAOTIC SEAS AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DRIER AIR WILL START
FILTERING INTO THE THE AREA ON FRIDAY...AND THE MAIN QUESTION IS
WHETHER TO INCLUDE POPS IN FOR ANYTIME/ANYWHERE FRIDAY. GOOD MID
LEVEL AND WEAK LOWER LEVEL DRYING IS OCCURRING ON FRIDAY...AND THINK
ANY RESIDUAL RAINFALL WILL BE OFFSHORE (AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE MORNING)...AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
TAKE OVER. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE GULF ON
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT AFTER THAT THINK AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR
ANYTHING WORTH NOTING...DESPITE FRONT COMING DOWN. THUS...NO
RAINFALL MENTIONED AFTER FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER RIDGE PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...MEANING DRY WEATHER.
FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT MORE NOTABLY DRIER SURFACE AIR
TO THE AREA...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR PLEASANT/CHAMBER OF COMMERCE TYPE
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE BEGINS TO COME BACK TUESDAY AND
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK TROUGH/SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WEDNESDAY.
WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE AND KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS
MOISTURE STILL MAY BE TOO LIMITED AND WAVE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND
COULD EASILY NOT BE IN THE FORECAST MODELS BY THE TIME MID WEEK
ROLLS AROUND. AFTER FROPA...WENT A LITTLE COOLER ON MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. JUST A FEW SUBTLE CHANGES TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  85  76  92  66  /  20  50  40  10  10
VICTORIA          75  84  72  91  59  /  30  50  40  10   0
LAREDO            78  95  76 102  70  /  40  40  30  10  10
ALICE             75  90  74  96  64  /  20  50  40  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  83  75  89  66  /  20  40  40  10  10
COTULLA           75  92  73  95  63  /  40  40  20  10   0
KINGSVILLE        75  88  75  96  65  /  20  50  40  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       76  83  76  88  69  /  20  40  40  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$