AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 124 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TOMORROW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... .UPDATE... 0530Z...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS/TD`S AND SKY COVER...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES E OF THE CWFA FRI AND AFOREMENTIONED SW/V TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS THRU THE DAY...AFTER SOME BRIEF SUN POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE AN OCCLUSION AND AT LEAST WEAK SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IF THIS OCCURS DOWNSLOPING WILL LIMIT OVERALL PCPN CHANCES FOR INTERIOR...OUTSIDE OF NWLY UPSLOPE SHRA IN THE MTNS OF NRN NH AND WRN ME. THIS LEAVES THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN OVER SRN NH AND COASTAL ME. POP WILL INCREASE FROM SW TO NE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE IN THE DAY FRI...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THOUGH THE CWFA WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE OCCLUSION...INCREASING K INDEX INDICATES ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THRU SAT MORNING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DISPARITY IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. GFS IS TAKING THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ANOTHER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WOULD FALL BETWEEN THE TWO DISTURBANCES WITH PRECIPITATION GOING MAINLY SOUTH OR NORTH ON SATURDAY. 00Z ECMWF IS TRYING TO COMBINE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTO ONE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SOLUTION IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND WOULD SIGNAL A VERY RAINY DAY FOR SATURDAY. WILL STICK CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE AND THE GFS FOR NOW WITH A SMALLER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH IN CANADA AND EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE SOMEWHAT WASHED OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES HERE. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP IT MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY. IF THE FRONT SPEEDS UP A BIT AND AFFECTS THE AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY THEN IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME FAIRLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW THOUGH...FROPA SHOULD BE TOO LATE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DIURNAL HEATING. ONCE THAT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU FRI MORNING. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE FRI MORNING...AND COULD IMPACT KLEB AND KAUG. LATE IN THE DAY FRI MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS SHRA/TSTMS MOVE INTO SRN NH...KCON/KLEB/KPSM AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO KPWM/KAUG FRI NGT. VFR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PRIMARILY EXPECTED. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF STORM SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...TAF SITES COULD SEE SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH/REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...