AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 621 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY TODAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE...HOLDING THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1030Z UPDATE...ADJUSTED TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT OBS OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE LAST BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH LATE MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEE STRATUS HANGING IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN MAINE UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN MIXING GETS GOING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLEARING IN NORTHWEST ZONES STARTING AROUND DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY AFTER. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SO SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... QUIET TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS SPILLING OVER THE APPROACHING RIDGE BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NGT AS THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS TO MOVE E ALONG THE U. S. - CANADIAN BORDER. WARMER AND MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ADVECTS IN ON A BROAD SW FLOW FROM THE SFC TO H8 MONDAY THRU MONDAY NGT. THIS WILL MEAN SOME CLOUDINESS AND DEVELOPING SCT SHRA ACTIVITY WITH PSBL TSTMS FOR THE FCST AREA. A CD FNT MOVES THRU ON TUESDAY AS THE LAST UPR LVL SHORT WAVE, WHICH IS THE STRONGEST IN THE SERIES, MOVES THRU. THIS WILL MEAN A BETTER ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION WITH SHRA AND TSTMS PSBL. THE FNT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING ALLOWING NW WINDS TO BRING IN COOLER...LESS HUMID AND MORE STABLE AIR TUESDAY NGT AFTER ANY SHRA ACTIVITY ENDS EARLY IN THE NGT. THE UPR LVL FLOW IS MORE CYCLONIC ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ON BREEZY NW WINDS AND H8 TEMPS COOL BELOW PLUS 10C. HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM CANADA WILL BRING IN FAIR WX THOUGH WITH COLD POOL ALOFT SOME CLOUDINESS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE DAY THOUGH MAY BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE N/MT ZONES. THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NGT THRU THURSDAY NGT WITH FAIR BUT PLEASANTLY COOL WX WITH LOW HUMIDITY. TEMPS DO BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME ON THURSDAY AS INDICATED BY H8 TEMPS WARMING ABOVE PLUS 10C. THE HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY MEANING ANOTHER FAIR WX DAY. GENERALLY USED GFS40, HPC QPF AND BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR SUNDAY NGT AND MONDAY. USED GMOS FOR REST OF THE LONG TERM FCST. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR THIS MORNING. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...INCREASING WRM, HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MAY TRIGGER SCT SHRA AND PSBL TSTMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NGT WITH MVFR TO IFR PSBL. SCT SHRA AND TSTMS WITH MVFR AND IFR PSBL ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NGT AS A CD FNT MOVES THRU. MAINLY VFR LATE TUESDAY NGT THRU WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY NGT THRU TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING CD FNT WILL MOST LIKELY STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS BUT SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AND COULD REACH MINIMAL SCA LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS MONDAY NGT AND TUESDAY. THE CD FNT MOVES THRU TUESDAY NGT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW AND STAYING BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY NGT. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W ON WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...