AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 148 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 0530Z UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED TEMPS/TD`S BASED ON CURRENT OBS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED WEATHER AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A FEW STRONG STORMS NOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. THESE STORMS ARE REMAINING SUB SEVERE BUT DO HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL AS INTERMITTENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. A FEW MORE LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE NOTED OVER NEW YORK AND ENTERING VERMONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAINE TROUGH AXIS AS WELL AS FARTHER NORTHWEST ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ADJUSTED POPS AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS FOR THIS UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... REMAINING SHRA WITH THE FROPA WILL PUSH EWD EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 80S. DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES SAT NGT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COOL LOW TEMPS. USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPS IN THIS PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SUNDAY BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. GFS IS TRYING TO HINT AS SOME INSTABILITY AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FIRING UP WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH SO WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS MONDAY. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. FROM THEN ON HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EAST COAST AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. BECOMING VFR EARLY SATURDAY. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH ONE EXCEPTION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS TO THE AREA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...