AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 531 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... .UPDATE... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CELLS ENTERING SOUTHERN VERMONT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REACH NH SHORTLY AND MAINE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE BEST INSTABILITY LIES WELL TO THE SOUTH BUT WE MAY SEE SOME PULSE TYPE CHARACTERISTICS WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE OVER SW NH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FOR THIS UPDATE WITH JUST SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER. && PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SW/V TROF ROTATING THRU CNTRL QUEBEC WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THRU THE CWFA TNGT. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HANGING TOUGH THRU SCNTRL NH AND COASTAL ME TDY...KEEPING TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. HOWEVER...TO THE N SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED GOOD DIURNAL RECOVERY AND CU DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF A SLOWLY RETURNING WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE RICHER MOISTURE LIES TO THE S. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS FRONT WILL RETURN NWD INTO SCNTRL NH AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AND TNGT. TO THE E...MARINE INFLUENCES AND A DEVELOPING OCCLUSION WILL LIMIT SFC TSTM POTENTIAL WITH EWD EXTENT. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL EXISTS...SO AN ISOLD RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WITH COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION WORKING THRU...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL DRY OUT SHRA ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH SOME NWLY UPSLOPE CONTINUING IN THE MTNS OF NRN NH AND WRN ME. TEMPS ARE A MAV/MET BLEND. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... REMAINING SHRA WITH THE FROPA WILL PUSH EWD EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 80S. DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES SAT NGT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COOL LOW TEMPS. USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPS IN THIS PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SUNDAY BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. GFS IS TRYING TO HINT AS SOME INSTABILITY AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FIRING UP WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH SO WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS MONDAY. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. FROM THEN ON HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EAST COAST AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. BECOMING VFR EARLY SATURDAY. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH ONE EXCEPTION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS TO THE AREA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$