AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 931 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011 .DISCUSSION... ALL QUIET AT THIS HOUR AS ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SKY PRETTY MUCH CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SO WILL GO MOSTLY CLEAR MOST PLACES. EXPECT TONIGHT TO PLAY OUT MUCH AS LAST NIGHT WILL NO PRECIPITATION AND WARM CONDITIONS...AND THEN ANOTHER DAY TOMORROW MUCH AS TODAY WITH JUST ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE. SLIGHTLY BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW DRAWS CLOSER ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT LOOKS TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA. 46 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011/ AVIATION... SEABREEZE NEAR A CXO/SEALY/ARM LINE AND MOVING NW AT 12 MPH. A FEW SHOWERS STILL GOING ON NEAR SGR BUT WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND ALSO A TSRA NW OF ARM. EXPECT THE SE WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE SEABREEZE THEN BECOMING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY SC AROUND 2500 FT OTHERWISE A QUIET AND PLEASANT NIGHT. 18Z MODELS STILL INDICATING MOISTURE SUFFICIENT BUT SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSIDENCE AND 4KM WRF SHOWING NO PRECIP OVER THE AREA. MAY HAVE ISOLATED TSRA AROUND BUT CONFIDENCE OF THEM BEING NEAR A TERMINAL IS LOW SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY CARRY CB PRIMARILY FOR THE 0820-0901Z TIMEFRAME. 45 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011/ DISCUSSION... THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TO DETERMINE THE IMPACTS OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE TEXAS COAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL DRIFT WEST TO THE TEXAS COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE LOW WILL BE MOVING UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH MOISTURE IT WILL HELP DRAW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER SATURDAY. FOR NOW THE MODELS BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD STARTING LATE SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SCATTERED POPS IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY. IF THE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...THE COVERAGE COULD POSSIBLY BE HIGHER DEPENDING ON WHERE AND WHAT TIME OF DAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE STATE. THE NAM...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN ALL DRY OUT AND WARM UP THE MID LEVELS ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW...THOUGHT IT REASONABLE TO LOWER THE POPS BACK TO 20 PERCENT ON SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK MAY TURN OUT TO BE DRIER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...COULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS FORMING ALONG THE SEABREEZE EACH DAY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BIT TRICKY. IF ENOUGH STORM COVERAGE OCCURS ON SATURDAY...THE HIGHS MAY BE A CATEGORY LOWER THAN WHAT WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD MAY BRING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 100 OVER THE INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST NEXT WEEK. 40 MARINE... NO FCST CONCERNS. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH LIGHT WINDS & LOW SEAS PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 99 74 98 74 / 10 10 20 20 20 HOUSTON (IAH) 75 98 76 96 76 / 10 20 20 30 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 81 92 80 90 80 / 10 10 20 30 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$