AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
322 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TO
DETERMINE THE IMPACTS OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
WESTWARD TO THE TEXAS COAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE LOW
WILL DRIFT WEST TO THE TEXAS COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY
THE LOW WILL BE MOVING UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON ITS WAY TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES
HOW MUCH MOISTURE IT WILL HELP DRAW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
SATURDAY. FOR NOW THE MODELS BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD
STARTING LATE SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SCATTERED POPS IN PLACE FOR
SATURDAY. IF THE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...THE COVERAGE COULD
POSSIBLY BE HIGHER DEPENDING ON WHERE AND WHAT TIME OF DAY THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE STATE. THE NAM...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN
ALL DRY OUT AND WARM UP THE MID LEVELS ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW...THOUGHT IT REASONABLE TO LOWER THE
POPS BACK TO 20 PERCENT ON SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK MAY TURN OUT TO BE
DRIER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE GENERAL
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...COULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS FORMING ALONG THE
SEABREEZE EACH DAY.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BIT TRICKY. IF ENOUGH STORM
COVERAGE OCCURS ON SATURDAY...THE HIGHS MAY BE A CATEGORY LOWER
THAN WHAT WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE MOVING
OVERHEAD MAY BRING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 100 OVER THE INLAND AREAS
AWAY FROM THE COAST NEXT WEEK.

40

&&

.MARINE...
NO FCST CONCERNS. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH LIGHT WINDS &
LOW SEAS PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  99  74  98  74 /  20  10  20  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  98  76  96  76 /  20  20  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  92  80  90  80 /  10  10  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$