AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
643 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION

&&

.AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECTED THE AREA OVERNIGHT
HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE MID
MORNING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR AREAWIDE.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GREATEST
COVERAGE LIKELY ACROSS AREAS FROM IAH/HOU NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS LOWERING TO IFR LEVELS. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011/

DISCUSSION...
AS ONE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...WATCH BOXES OUT
TO THE WEST HERALDING THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE ACTIVITY HEADING FOR
US LATER TODAY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE (WHILE THEY DID INITIALIZE OK)
NOT HANDLING THE PCPN THIS MORNING ALL THAT WELL. SO NOT FEELING A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE WITH THEIR TAKE ON THINGS FOR THE AFTN. BUT THAT
BEING SAID...THE WEAKENED CAP/ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIKELIHOOD FOR
A RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS (WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS PER OF THE MESO
HIGH IN THE WAKE OF THIS OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY) TO SET THE STAGE THIS
AFTN FOR A DECENT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. AGAIN TIMING TO
BE THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. BUT SHOULD ALL OF
THIS COME TOGETHER THIS AFTN...THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WX COULD
VERIFY NICELY. CHC POPS TO REMAIN IN FOR TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS BY FRI NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ESEWD
STEADILY WITH TIME. HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH
STRONG SFC HIGH SHOULD GIVE US A SPELL OF SPRING LIKE TEMPS DURING
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. 41

MARINE...
SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS ONSHORE FLOW
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. WILL ALLOW SCEC TO EXPIRE AT DAYBREAK THIS MORNING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST ON
FRIDAY BRINGING MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS IN ITS WAKE. CAUTION FLAGS
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      87  68  84  55  80 /  50  40  20   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              88  71  89  61  81 /  40  40  30  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  74  85  66  80 /  30  40  30  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$