AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1248 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY. THE EXITING LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF OUR COAST MONDAY
WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF THE COAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 12:30 AM SUNDAY...RADAR LOOPS SHOW LIGHT PRECIP STAYING
MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN FRINGES. NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

CLOUDS ARE FILLING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...WITH A TRAILING COLD- FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE HIGH RIDGES OF NORTH CAROLINA. SHOWERS WERE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS INDICATE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
OVER SPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...INTENSITY PICKING
UP A BIT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN
TIER. IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL NOT DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL SUNDAY AS THE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SURGES SOUTHWARD. THUS LOWS PRIMARILY IN
THE 50S LOOK GOOD IN THE WARM SECTOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING E ALONG A
FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR N OVERNIGHT AND SUN MORNING. THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FEATURES COMBINED WITH ANOTHER WEAK MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN WSW FLOW SHOULD BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE... WILL SHOW POPS RAMPING HIGHER AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE FAIRLY BROAD...IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OR SO OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL THUS SHOW A GRADATION OF POPS FROM CATEGORICAL
ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE GRAND
STRAND AND SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AREAS.

AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUN MORNING...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH FROM BENNETTSVILLE TO LUMBERTON TO WATHA
NORTHWARD...DECREASING STEADILY AS YOU MOVE SOUTHWARD WHERE REPORTS
OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO FIND SE OF A CKI TO MYR LINE.

AS WE GET A LITTLE DEEPER INTO THE WARM SECTOR...CLOUDS MAY BREAK
FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THIS EVE BEFORE FILLING BACK IN OVERNIGHT.
THESE SAME CLOUDS AND SW JETTING WILL KEEP TEMPS ELEVATED AND NO
LOWER THAN THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL DROP SOUTH ON SUN. TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE DODGY BUT
FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EVENING. 12Z NAM/CANADIAN
SOLUTION IS A LITTLE FASTER PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOUTH
THAN THE 12Z GFS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 2 SOLUTIONS IS THE
IMPACT ON SUN HIGHS AND TIMING THE LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT.
ALTHOUGH ALL THREE MODELS DEVELOP A WEAK SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...OVER WESTERN NC. THE DIFFERENCE IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS
FEATURE APPEARS TO BE THE CULPRIT FOR THE SLOWER FROPA DEPICTED BY
THE GFS. FAVORED BLEND OF THE 2 SOLUTIONS WHICH HAS THE FRONT MOVING
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY IS ON THE WEAK SIDE
WITH LITTLE FORCING AND UPPER DYNAMICS ARE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA. OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF RAINFALL EVEN THOUGH SUN POP
VALUES RANGE FROM HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BIT
OF DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...BUT
THIS WILL ONLY REALLY IMPACT THE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES. DRIER AIR
DOES START TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE
COAST SUN NIGHT ENDING ANY LIGHT PRECIP. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. ANTICIPATE A WIDE RANGE
OF LOWS...FROM UPPER 30S NORTHWEST NC TO UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST SC.

FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY MON AND MON NIGHT. FRONT SWILL STALL OFF THE
COAST...BUT HOW FAR REMAINS SIGNIFICANT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTHEAST FL COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY MON INTO MON NIGHT. DO NOT THINK MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE
IMPACTED BY PRECIP...BUT LIGHT RAIN WITH AN OCCASIONAL HEAVIER
SHOWER COULD BRUSH THE COAST AS THE LOW PASSES MON AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. LOW IS INITIALLY SLOW TO DEVELOP SO ITS IMPACT ON THE AREA
WILL BE LIMITED. DRY AIR STARTS TO BUILD IN AS THE LOW EXITS MON
NIGHT BUT PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE A RETURN
TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MON AND MON NIGHT...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST WHERE LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM THE EXITING LOW
WILL KEEP LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...COASTAL LOW WILL BE MOVING FARTHER AWAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A LARGER AND STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING DOWN FROM THE UPPER PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
LOOKS LIKE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MAKE IT SOUTH INTO AREA ON
TUES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW A DEEP N-NW FLOW
INITIALLY ON TUES WITH A DRY COLUMN FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH H50.
THE WEDGE SIGNATURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL TAKE FORM THROUGH MID
WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT A SUNNIER DAY ON TUES WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
SOME PASSING CIRRUS. LATEST PCP WATER VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN A
HALF INCH ON TUES. AS FLOW SHIFTS AROUND TO THE W-SW IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS WILL SEE PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE BACK UP NEAR .75
INCHES ON WED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH. THIS AGAIN MAY
PRODUCE SOME PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT NOT COUNTING ON MUCH
ELSE. TEMPS MAY END UP RUNNING ON THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMO...AROUND 60
OR SO FOR TUES AND WED WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN RATHER THAN
CLOUDS.

BY LATE THURS INTO FRI MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM CANADA
WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TRIES TO DEVELOP A SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE
GULF. RECENT MODEL RUNS DO NOT MATERIALIZE THIS SYSTEM INTO A LOW
UNTIL IT MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...KEEPING BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE JUST ALONG COAST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE CONTRAST
IN THE MODELS FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY WILL LEAD TO A MUCH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

FOR NOW WILL KEEP WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH SUNNIER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW SETTING UP WITH INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS
AND PCP LATE THURS INTO FRI AS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BRUSHES AREA.
BY THE WEEKEND...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK INTO
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CONFIDENCE STILL HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS FRONT IS SLOW MOVING
AND PRECIPITATION IS LIFTING MORE TO THE NE AWAY FROM OUR CWA. THE
MAIN BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION STILL BACK ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLY SOUTHWEST INTO ALABAMA WITH ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE TO OUR
NORTH ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. EXPECT TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
TERMINALS UNTIL AT LEAST 09Z-12Z NEAR THE COAST...WILL MENTION
VCSH ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS EARLY ON.

AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT IT WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. I HAVE PUSHED BACK THE START OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS AS PER THE RUC/NAM AND
GFS ALBEIT THE GFS LOOKS TO BE THE FASTER OF THE MODELS. NOT
CONVINCED OF THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THUS HAVE A LOW
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE START OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
DO THINK THAT ONCE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS AND CEILINGS COME DOWN
THAT THEY WILL STAY DOWN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING TO A MORE LOW STRATUS DRIZZLE TYPE SITUATION AS FRONT
DRAPES ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING CLOSE BY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR SUNDAY STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...BY 12Z
SURFACE LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO BE ACROSS WESTERN NC WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS GEORGIA INTO ALABAMA.
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW EAST ACROSS NC
TO JUST NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. WE SHOULD BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY..EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
AND CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...POST FRONTAL. WILL KEEP MENTION OF PROB30
DURING THE EVENING AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND WE STAY IN THE LOW
CEILINGS AND DRIZZLE PORTION OF THE FRONT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION AND IFR RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. VFR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:30 AM SUNDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS IN THE 15 KT
RANGE WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS. NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED TO OVERNIGHT
FORECAST...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTS ITSELF SE OF THE AREA...S TO SSW
WINDS WILL VEER TO SW. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SW LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 40
KT AT ABOUT 2 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING.
THESE WINDS WILL NOT MIX EFFICIENTLY DOWNWARD GIVEN THE
COMPARATIVELY COOL SHELF WATERS. CONSEQUENTLY...ALTHOUGH THIS
FORECAST WILL SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS GRADUALLY
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 20 KT. STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR FURTHER OFFSHORE WHERE
HIGHER SEA SURFACE TEMPS RESIDE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD THIS
EVE...REACHING 3 TO 5 FT LATE AT NIGHT. SEAS MAY REACH 6 FT OUT
AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY SUN MORNING. NO HEADLINES WILL BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINE MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA ON SUN.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE DAY SUN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW...15
TO 20 KT...WILL BUILD SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT WELL AWAY FROM SHORE.
LIMITED DURATION OF STRONGEST SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP SEAS UNDER
6 FT. AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THE WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO
WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH SUN EVENING. LIMITED COLD SURGE BEHIND
THE FRONT BUT HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN WILL TIGHTEN UP THE GRADIENT
A BIT WITH A SOLID 15 KT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL FIRST DROP AND THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT HELPS KNOCK THEM
DOWN A BIT...BUT INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW WILL STABILIZE SEAS
AROUND 4 FT. 180 DEGREE WIND SHIFT WILL KEEP SEAS ACROSS ALL ZONES
RATHER CHOPPY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY AT CLOSE TO 15 KT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS FRONT REMAINS STALLED EAST OF THE WATERS.
WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE FL COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT. PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE LATER MON MAY RESULT IN MORE OF A
NORTHEAST COMPONENT EARLY MON AND A NORTHWEST COMPONENT LATE IN THE
DAY. GRADIENT DOES NOT START TO TIGHTEN UP UNTIL THE LOW IS EXITING
THE REGION. SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 5 FT MON AND MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS AS ONE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST GETS REPLACED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS AS IT MIGRATES EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS
MAY START OUT A LITTLE HIGHER BUT OVERALL EXPECT N-NE FLOW 10 TO 15
KTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$