AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
136 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A SUMMERTIME AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL AS WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM SUNDAY...SEVERAL INTERACTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ILM CWA INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF MONDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...HRRR HAS NOT PICKED UP ON THIS AND WILL RELY ON
EXTRAPOLATION. COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT
BUT HOW DENSE THE FOG GETS AND HOW LOW THE STRATUS GOES IS IN
QUESTION. LOOKS AS IF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK SEEN VIA
MODEL TIME HEIGHT SERIES COULD PREVENT THE WIDESPREAD DENSE AND LOW
STRATUS. IF NOT...THEN A SUPER-FOG EVENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LARGE WILDFIRES IN THE AREA REMAINS POSSIBLE.

WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT PERSISTS OVER THE ILM CWA...WITH MIN TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...WEAK TROFFING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER (APPROACHING 2
INCHES) MONDAY AND TUESDAY COMBINED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE CAPE MAY EXCEED 3000 J/KG
ON MONDAY AND DCAPE ALSO SHOWN TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...FEEL THAT THERE COULD BE STRONG TO BRIEFLY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE PROFILE THINK THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER FROM OCCURRING. EXPECT A
REPEAT DURING TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION...SOME BECOMING
STRONG ALONG BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. MET/MAV TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EACH
DAY AND EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...PRIMARILY FOLLOWED THE ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE THIS CYCLE IS IN REGARDS TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH
APPEARS WILL STALL NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER RIDGE BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WHILE
THE UPPER TROUGH HOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT LATEST
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE TERMINALS...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH SUNRISE. KILM RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAIN FROM SEABREEZE
CONVECTION ON SUN AND THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SUGGEST A STRATUS CEILING MAY DEVELOP AFTER 09Z. FEEL IT
WILL BE STRATUS OVER FOG DUE TO MODERATELY STRONG WINDS AT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. A MID AND HIGH CLOUD CEILING FROM THUNDERSTORM
DEBRIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS FORMATION THROUGH
SUNRISE. MONDAY...VFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH ISOLATED/ SCATTERED STORMS
REFIRING BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL STAY WITH VCSH/VCTS WITH
THIS ISSUANCE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE TIMING AND LOCATION.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. VFR FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM SUNDAY...WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS HAVE FURTHER VEERED
FROM S TO SSW. WEAK SFC PG OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE WINDS IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE. A 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD...AT 2 TO 3 FEET FROM THE
SOUTH WIND WAVE WILL DOMINATE THE SIG SEAS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST...WITH AN INCREASE IN FLOW
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT OFF CAPE
FEAR BY TUESDAY EVENING...WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.


LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...THE WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
DURING WEDNESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO DIMINISH. THE FRONT WILL WASH
OUT WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 3 FT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY TIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ105-106.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$